Aaron Judge is headed into his final year of arbitration eligibility, with the slugging outfielder on track to be one of next offseason’s top free agents. Judge, who’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $17.1MM salary, has expressed openness in the past to working out a long-term deal with the Yankees and avoiding the free market altogether.
Judge recently reiterated his willingness to sign an extension, although he didn’t sound as though he felt any pressure to get a deal done. In an appearance on Ryan Ruocco’s and C.C. Sabathia’s R2C2 podcast, the 29-year-old was asked about the possibility of signing a long-term deal. “If we get an extension done at some point before the season starts, that’d be great,” Judge replied. “I’d be completely honored to be able to wear pinstripes for a couple more years. But if it doesn’t happen and this is my last year, I had a lot of great memories. … It’s all in God’s hands. It’s going to work out the way it’s supposed to.”
Judge didn’t explicitly state he’d be unwilling to negotiate an extension in-season, although some fans may read his mention of “before the season starts” as an implication he’d prefer to avoid talks dragging into the regular campaign. In any event, it seems likely the Yankees front office will open talks with his representatives at PSI Sports Management at some point between the end of the lockout and Opening Day. Earlier this offseason, general manager Brian Cashman suggested the front office was interested in the possibility of keeping Judge from hitting the open market.
Some more Yankees tidbits:
- DJ LeMahieu underwent sports hernia surgery shortly after the season, but it doesn’t seem that’ll have much of an effect in 2022. LeMahieu told Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News that he rehabbed for a few weeks before returning to batting practice. The 2020 batting champ should be a full-go for Spring Training, whenever that begins. LeMahieu quipped to Ackert that he could be ready for the regular season within two days but more seriously opined that a four-week ramp-up period will be necessary. Whenever games get underway, LeMahieu will be looking to bounce back from an uncharacteristically ordinary showing. He hit just ten home runs across 679 plate appearances last year, with his .268/.349/.362 line checking in as exactly league average output by measure of wRC+. That’s far from the excellent .336/.386/.536 mark he put up from 2019-20, form he’ll obviously hope to recapture this year.
- Minor league Spring Training is underway, with players not on teams’ 40-man rosters unaffected by the ongoing lockout. Former Cardinals and Reds reliever Matt Bowman isn’t currently a union member, as he’s in camp with the Yankees on a non-roster deal. Bowman, who underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2020, signed a two-year minors contract with the Yankees last offseason. After spending all of 2021 rehabbing, he’s fully recovered and in minor league camp, writes Dan Martin of the New York Post. Bowman logged 181 1/3 frames of relief between 2017-20, pitching to a 4.02 ERA/3.86 SIERA. Whenever the lockout concludes, the right-hander will try to carve out a middle innings job in the Yankees bullpen.
Fully expect a comeback by DJ. Maybe not leading the league in batting, but over .300 with 10-15 homers.
I think people got carried away with his 2019. He isn’t hitting 20 HRs ever again. A .290/.350/.410 slash is what you are getting. It’s good, but it isn’t All-star caliber.
Look at the AAV. in my view, his deal is solid value with the only downside being should he suffer a Pedroia type injury. Outside of that, he’s exactly what every team needs in today’s game.
I don’t want to jinx it, and see him revert to 19-20, but there are a couple of issues here.
1-The first is obviously the hitting. He was a 93 OPS+ hitter with Colorado, and a 97+ player last year. At the age of almost 34, it is entirely possible that this is the player he’ll be going forward.
2-The second, which is almost never discussed, is where he will play. Unless Torres is benched, then DJ has to play 1st.
Torres should start at second considering how good he again looked there at the end of the year. Shirt leash however. DJL can be the jack of all trades who plays four to five days a week resting others or takes over where needed due to injuries or performance issues.
I think DJL is falling off really quick. I do think he will be better than last year but nowhere near as good as his salary. He’s pretty old and locked up for a ling time. I’m thinking by the time 2023 is over that contract is going to look REALLY bad.
Was I the only one who noticed that Judge said he would love to play for the Yankees for “a couple more years?” It almost sounds like he would be willing to take a short term deal and go high AAV Trevor Bauer style. If that’s the case, the Yankees should try to sign him. It may have just been a figure of speech but it definitely didn’t sound like Judge is expecting his next contract to be super long term that puts him in one uniform for the rest of his career or anything. I hope he does go short term. I love when players do that. Get paid what you are actually worth during your best years and don’t drag the team down with an underwater contract when you are older. If all players did that they would make much higher AAVs and it wouldn’t take so long for bloated aging teams to rebuild. Everyone wins. These teams having terrible records because they have too many old guys eating up so much salary is bad for baseball. Pay them what they are worth when they are good and don’t pay them at all when they are bad. I also think more teams would be willing to spend money that way. They won’t be as concerned because if the contract ends up going bad they can get out of it very soon. It would definitely raise the amount of money teams spend on players over all on a year to year basis. That’s a win for the players. A win for all the players, too. Not just the top few guys that land these long term bloated contracts.
Any player would happily accept his total contract value over fewer years. The only reason players ask for more years, is that the owners won’t pay as much in total over a shorter contract. Conversely, the owners prefer to pay the contract over more time. If they can get six years for $100m, they’d prefer that over 4 years for $100m, even if years five and six are wasted.
Said it perfectly.
Could hit .290-.300 or a little higher.
Ceiling is about 12 HRS.
He was never great offensively in Colorado anyway.
Good not great.
Sure hope so, Mickey.
I’m not necessarily certain that the leadoff hitter “sets the tone” for the entire lineup or whatever. But a .711 OPS sure appears to be the correct tone for an offense that ranked 19th in runs.
He didn’t look right last year for whatever reason. Definitely could have been health. No matter: we need LeMahieu to have a good year for us.
Mickey7s: I sure hope we see a resurgence of DJL. He’s a key to our lineup when he’s right, imho, because of his consistency. He makes it much tougher to get through the lineup when he’s consistently putting bat-on-ball.
I was skeptical of his injury being the reason for his downfall last year, but he suffered on both sides of the ball, which is a strong indicator that there is merit to that hernia.
I’ll believe he’s right again this season unless he proves me wrong.
Decent chance for a bounce back. In some ways, his 2021 was similar to his last year in Colorado in 2018. LeMahieu normally carries a high BABiP due to his hitting style. Very similar to another Yankee DJ. Hard line drives to the opposite field. For his career DJLM sits at .340, and he often is in the .320 to .370 range. His last year as a Rockies it slipped to .298. In 2021, it sat at .301, basically the two lowest BABiP’s of his career, and by a good margin. He basically hit in bad luck for him for him. I wouldn’t expect a full season of 2021 hitting, but I could see him approaching 2019 if he’s healthy, which he wasn’t for a decent stretch of last season.
Both DJL and the Yankees should be thrilled if he can put up a .300/.360/.500 season. I’m guessing he’ll fall a little short of these numbers but he should vastly improve vs. his 2021 results. One thing is for sure: DJ was not healthy last season. Hats off to him for grinding it out and trying to help the team make a playoff run, but it was obvious that he didn’t have the same strength in his lower half last season. If he can stay healthy, he’ll set the tone for what should be a Top 5 offense in the AL.
So pitchers and catchers did report, but only if they are not on a 40 man roster?
Yes
Replacement players need more practice.
How do you measure WAR for replacement players?????
LBS (Losses Below Starter)
They’ll get pounded!?! 😉
Whether Aaron Judge signs an extension or moves on to a new franchise, the team that signs him is asking for trouble. He already has a long injury history, and athletes his size going into their 30s rarely stay healthy. He’s a great player, and I also like Judge on a personal level, but I wouldn’t give him more than two years. There is at least one team (probably several) who would, though, so he’ll get his money and they’ll get their regret.
2 years?? 6 to 8 years/160 millions and plus
Like I said, he’ll get a contract like that somewhere, but it wouldn’t be from me. I have zero faith in his ability to play more than 100 games in a season beyond age 32.
I think his value is being drastically underestimated.
First of all, the $17M projection for his final year of arbitration seems very low. Throw away his 27-game first season, and he’s got a career .954 OPS
As for being injury prone, that won’t stop teams from paying him. He’s averaging 136 games per season (age 25-29) since becoming a regular, that doesn’t include the 2020 shortened season.
Stanton averaged 106 games during the same age 25-29 period, and that also doesn’t include the 2020 season. And his numbers weren’t as good as Judge’s, as Stanton had only a .907 OPS and both players are nearly the same height.
I’m going long, I think Judge gets 8 years guaranteed AAV $30M plus two team option years at the same $30M each.
It’s not just about his performance, he is wildly popular and there’s nobody else that can replace him as the face of the franchise. He is a huge moneymaker for the team.
Quite true, but we live in a weird world where wealthy teams like the Yankees and Red Sox play to the luxury tax. To me, there is no excuse for Mookie Betts not being on the Sox. There should be no excuse for a team like the Yankees not signing their star, but there are no guarantees. The Yankees did let Cano leave, a move that in retrospect perhaps makes more sense than it did at the time.
Even when Judge plays 120 games, he still puts up 5 WAR seasons. He makes more money in endorsements than any other MLB player. That, of course, is because he plays in NY and is popular. He will have to factor that in if he is even thinking of leaving.
One wrinkle few people have considered. Most assume that if the Yankees decide to keep a player or go after a player it’s a done deal. That may not entirely be the case anymore. There is an extremely wealthy owner across the city who wouldn’t mind “stealing” the Yankees biggest star, and he has the money to do it. If the Yankees are truly planning to bring back Judge, they might want to make sure the ink on the contract is dry before the start of the 2022 season.
Rob: I think the Yankees getting the deal done prior to the start of opening day, ‘22 is the key to doing two things: getting Judge on the best possible terms for the team; and ensuring he stays in NY.
Knowing how important he is to the Yankees I could see a few teams gunning for him (including Cohen) and intentionally driving up the price or just stealing him, in which case the Yankees will have agitated the fan base beyond comprehension.
Judge is the franchise right now. Voit, although direct, gritty, & energetic isn’t a guy the Yankees would center on. Stanton, cannot do what Judge does because he’s not home grown & developed as a Yankee. Judge has that Jeter-esque quality that the Yankees still promote and rely on for their branding. He’s the heartbeat of the team.
I fear if he goes to 8/$240 as postulated above, the Yankees will balk and he will be elsewhere (likely a Met or Dodger or Giant). That’s a bad, bad look for the Yankees.
@Yankee Clipper, if they plan to sign him, there is no advantage to letting him reach free agency. They might even be able to shave a year off the back end of the deal by signing him a year early.
No way is Hal giving Judge 8 years, especially if the contract starts in 2023, when Judge will be 31. I think they might go 6 years, $180 million, but that’s about it.
If the Yankees hadn’t acquired Stanton, I think signing Judge would be a slam dunk. They do have $32 million coming off the payroll next year in Chapman and Britton. Maybe they use that to sign Judge.
Personally, I don’t care what the market is, I don’t think any one player is worth $30+ million per year.
Yanks haven’t won anything with Cole and Stanton – their $300+ million men – nor the Phillies with Harper, the Padres with Machado/Tatis. If Judge is looking for some ridiculous AAV, I say trade him. Baseball is won with a team of 26, not 1 or 2 highly paid stars. The Braves are a great example.
Classic – Any contract extension would take effect immediately, not start next year.
Rob – The Yanks could wait until after the season to see if Judge can stay healthy this year.
Which is exactly what the Sox should have done with Sale before giving him the mega-extension.
It’s important to remember he has a ton of market value but that his on the field value is significantly lower and his risk factor is out of the park.
I care much less about optics than I do about winning but I don’t think the Yankees share my values.
Wrong.
You can’t just assume value always goes up
Stanton has an extensive injury history going waaayyyy back, so bad comparison. He’s lucky to play 130 any season.
Judge is also a superior hitter and played 140+ last season. Has altered defensive approach to avoid injuries and I think he’ll be OK a few years anyway.
I wouldn’t do more than four years for no other reason then the fact that he would be playing in his age 31 season in ’23 and at his size his body is not going to age well in to his late 30’s
Which would you do four @ $35m per or six @ $160m. If you do it right, the last two years won’t be much in actual cash and will significantly lower the AAV.
Winfield came in 5th in MVP voting at age 40, not all tall guys break down in their 30’s.
Winfield missed the entire 1989 season.
Judge has 60lbs of muscle on Winfield and likely a greater body mass. Not saying Judge is going to crumble but the odds of him staying healthy and productive at 36+ years old are definitely against him
Dewey: For me, I’m always a fan of higher AAV & shorter length contracts, so 4 @ 35M/year with a player option year 5 if health incentives are met & team option year 6. If not options, I’d rather go 4-year. I think it’s a better way to operate. They can always do a Brett Gardner-like 1-or-2-year extension after that for each year he remains productive/healthy.
If other teams signed players for 300 and 400 MM and all of a sudden now they are sick except Bryce that’s my man. they should give him 160 to 200 with no problem they will make it on t shirts.
If Judge doesn’t like the extension offered by the Yankees this Spring (if they even offer him one) he’s going to free agency and taking the largest offer regardless of which team it is. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Toronto take a run at him so long as they don’t sign someone like Casty after the lockout is over this season.
Sometime in the next 3-4 years, Judge may need to move to 1B or DH permanently to reduce the wear & tear RF puts on him. He goes full bore out there and in his mid-30’s, his body won’t be able to handle that anymore. Muscles tighten up with age so RF is a pulled hammy or quad waiting to happen for him.
Dorothy: I hate to say this but I agree. That’s essentially what I detailed in my narrative. Teams are going to drive the price up and Yankees will pay it or be outbid. I do think Judge will take less to stay if they extend him now, but he won’t if they wait.
Winfield also showed much more health than Judge. Winfield averaged 148 games from age 22-36. Judge has averaged 118.5 from ages 25-29.
his muscles are too big and ripped for baseball activities. injury prone
Tell me you don’t lift without telling me you don’t lift
How much do you think the second greatest Wander in baseball lifts?
I remember when he hit a granny and 2-run shot in the same game against the Lugnuts, dude is stronger than he looks!
Viz: I was gonna say Judge is looking a little soft & puffy. Recommend some lifting routines for him so he can bulk a little like me.
There really isn’t much history in baseball with athletes his size. Not disagreeing, but we simply don’t know.
Sure there is, Rob: Dave Winfield, Frank Robinson, Adam Dunn, Richie Sexson, Tony Clark all had long careers. That’s just off the top of my head. & I purposely excluded pitchers (& football players!) from my list.
Remember when the knock on Betts was that he was so “small” he would break down? It’s like the Goldilocks of baseball players, man.
“…& this one is toooo big, & this one is toooo small…”
Well Buck, Mookie has been starting to break down already. Hip injuries tend to linger, ya know? But I’ve always maintained that style of play has a lot to do with durability. If you’re an outfielder always diving for balls and crashing into walls like Freddie Lynn, chances are you’ll experience injuries.
The word much does have a meaning you can look up whenever you want.
Ducky Buckin Fent4 hours ago
Sure there is, Rob: Dave Winfield, Frank Robinson, Adam Dunn, Richie Sexson, Tony Clark all had long careers.
================================
Not a good selection here. Robinson was only 6’1″ (best swing I ever saw).
Clark was finished after age 29. He played another 8 years, but a total of 0.1 bWAR over those 8 years.
Sexson was finished after age 31. He played 3 more years with a -1.2 WAR.
Dunn was finished by age 27. He played another 7 years with a total bWAR of 2.5.
Frank Howard at 6’7″ flamed out at age 35 and retired the following year.
Whoops. Good catch, @Brady.
Was thinking “Frank Thomas” but typed “Frank Robinson.” Thomas was a big dude.
Just kicking back at the notion that big players ” break down” with any more frequency than anyone else. Small dudes, big guys, medium, whatever, players get hurt or stay healthy. The End.
Don’t forget Frank Howard.
Agreed on all sizes of players breaking down, but those who lift too much are more prone to muscle pulls.
Nah.
That’s why we have you around, @emac.
I can’t picture Judge in anything but pinstripes. I hope the org comes at him with a respectable offer and the extension can be finalized before it becomes a drawn out distraction a la Freddie Freeman and the Braves.
Great article Anthony- thanks. And I SUPPORT HAL STEINBRENNER!
Hal Steinbrenner doesn’t deserve anyones support. Even the Boss didn’t support him becoming owner.
Judge is this bizarre situation where any team and any fan of any team would love him… one year at a time. Everybody is waiting for him to fall to pieces physically but until then he’s a fan and front office favorite… just pay the guy. In a perfect world he’d re-up for one year at a time but it doesn’t work that way.
Kick him in the nards! Does Wolfman have nards?!
Judge is a terrific when on the field, very popular, ostensibly a good teammate, and the Yankees will make a solid offer. But I don’t know that they will sign him.
I can envision Judge accepting a reasonable offer. I don’t think he’s going to hold out, as say…Soto will. My point is that I think Judge is simply looking at an acceptable offer and not to hit his peak offer, knowing and expressing his desire to stay in pinstripes. I think 6/$180M gets it done and Cashman will do it. Possibly additional health/performance incentives & options would be reasonably included too.
Why would he take 6 @ $180 when the Mets gave 3 @ $150. That is going to make it hard.
Mets gave who 3/$150? They cannot offer an existing player a contract because it’s, well….not permissible.
So, how would Judge know they offered him an offer they cannot offer him until a year after the Yankees extend him?
I suspect he’s talking about Scherzer, who is on a 3/130. Tacking on an extra $20M on only a three year deal is quite the rounding error!
What Scherzer has to do with Judge isn’t clear. I don’t see the Yankees, or any team, offering Judge a $43M AAV because the Mets did that with Scherzer to buy him away from the west coast and the Dodgers. It does push the high end of contracts higher, but it won’t significantly impact Judge’s deal. I can see a 7/200.
Max’s contract set the Bar and if you think his agent is not going to use that as the starting point you’re wrong. Younger everyday player,
Of course Judge will say all the right things about staying with the NYY, while they are the only team he can negotiate with, just like every players does. If he wants to win, though, they don’t have much of a chance. Good thing he will probably take the best offer. That gives them an opportunity.
“LeMahieu will be looking to bounce back from an uncharacteristically ordinary showing.”
In 11 seasons, he’s been above average in 3 of them. You might want to call last year a characteristically below ordinary showing.
he’s a 3 time GG and frequent finalist with a career line of
.300/.356/.422. That is objectively above average.
In 11 seasons, he has averaged less than 2 WAR a year, and has only had over 2.5 WAR twice. His career wRC+ is exactly 100. He seems to be the epitome of a league average player. To put it in perspective, last year was his 4th best offensive season out of 11.
Your statements seem contradictory or you’re misunderstanding stats. If he averages 2 WAR a year, please explain how that is league average as you say. Does a 2 WAR player have no value if they have an average bat?
A 2 WAR player is considered a league average player. A 0 WAR player is considered replacement level.
I put more stock in slash line than I do in WAR, but that doesn’t mean I don’t value WAR or it’s not more valuable in certain instances. What is more problematic for WAR, imo, is the fact that defensive metrics are inherently unreliable, unless they all agree, in which case they tend to backup the ever-popular eye test.
League average is actually good, something that many fans fail to recognize. You’re correct. A 2 WAR player, or a 100 OPS+ (or wRC+) is about league average. In that sense, we probably agree more than disagree on LeMahieu.
That aside, DJLM at this stage of his career is likely better than a 2 WAR player when healthy. He was at 2.4 fWAR last year. He was at 2.5 WAR the year prior in only 60 games. He easily would have eclipsed 5 WAR for the year, and was on pace for near 7 WAR season. I wouldn’t expect that moving forward, and I doubt he would have reached that if there was a 162-game season in 2020. The shortened year led to some batting-line anomalies, both positive and negative, across the game that likely would have evened out in a full season. Regardless, it would have been his second straight 5 win season, which means his three best seasons would have occurred during a five year stretch including his 2015. More recent data over several years is more telling than 10-year old data when assessing players.
When the Yankees signed LeMahieu, they did so looking at his batted ball data. They know, as do most teams now, that Colorado causes significant issues. Teams simply can’t look at home-road splits. Plus, formulas like OPS+ and wRC+ put significant penalties on Colorado stats, with the net being WAR can underrate certain types of Rockies players. LeMahieu was identified as one of them. As I noted elsewhere, LeMahieu generates high BABiP’s because of his hitting style — 2014 forward: .322. .362, .388, .351, .298, .349, .370 and .301. The two anomalous years for his approach and career results were his last year as a Rockies and his 2021 with the Yankees. The Yankees recognized 2018 was not normal LeMahieu. Probably neither is 2021 unless he’s aged out (not impossible). As much as he hit in luck in 2020, he often hit out of luck in 2021. Perhaps the baseball gods are evening things out. His lower body rotation, both hitting and in the field, were off last year. That’s why I wasn’t surprised when I read about his sports hernia? I have a hard time believing he played the entire year with it, but maybe he did and it simply worsened.
Anyway, my guess is he’s a solid rebound candidate. Not hitting .370, but probably back to .300, and I can see a solid 3-4 win season at this stage. He’s the type of player I look for in my fantasy baseball auctions because he’ll come in undervalued as many fans don’t look at the complete data and will get concerned by his most recent year.
It’s kind of interesting how a team let go all their young players without any compensation and signed a bunch of cripples because they had fairly good not to say average seasons in the past.
Only one team will do that
The one who’s general manager is mr cash
It’s kind of interesting how a team let go all their young players without any compensation and signed a bunch of cripples because they had fairly good not to say average seasons in the past.
Only one team will do that
The one who’s general manager is mr cash
You ought to put it in wins and losses
…including his *2016*.
@Superstar – WAR can be bent to paint a picture of a player how you want it to. If you follow his link above, he shows a WAR of 26.5 over 11 seasons; however, those weren’t 11 full seasons. His first year (age 22) he played 37 games and only had 60 ABs. In his 2nd year, he only had 229 ABs and in 2020, he had less than 200 ABs. WAR is based off of full seasons and not partial ones so DJL has really only had 9 full seasons in MLB. Divide 26.5 WAR by 9 and he averages a hair under 3.0 WAR per full season which is pretty darn good for a player with below average power. So I disagree that DJL is merely a league average player and I’m a Red Sox fan. He’s a great hitter and plays solid DEF too. I’d certainly take him on my team any day of the week!
@RobM, yes. I doubt most talent evaluators peg LeMahieu as league average. I’ll use WAR for a quick evaluation, but then I’ll start digging deeper if the numbers don’t match the evaluation. That’s what WAR was supposed to be, but somewhere along the line many began treating it as gospel.
I’m still waiting to hear from anyone who says WAR is the end-all, be-all tool for evaluating players. Those who have created the various versions of WAR have said it’s only a good approximation, with differences of 0.5 WAR basically being in the noise.
Just using WAR would be almost as bad (but not as bad) as just using batting average. “He hit .300, so he must be really good.” “He hit .230, he must be awful.” With either one, there’s more to the picture than any single number.
RobM, I agree that “we probably agree more than disagree on LeMahieu.” I would guess our main disagreement is how much weigh we put into 2019-2020. I put very little, and I would bet you would put a lot. If the MLB goes back to a juiced ball, then I’ll change my expectations.
Whoever told newbies that WAR has value should be fired and verbally abused.
They got actual cash for those players so it only seems like it was wasted to the fans.
Think of all the future payroll saving by not having any of them on the roster and you’ll see it’s a lot of money.
emac22, it’s your choice not to educate yourself about WAR and how it can be used. That and encouraging verbal abuse say a fair amount about you.
I never understood the disagreement with WAR. I never look at a single stat when assessing a player, but WAR is generally where I start. Except for catchers and RPs, your career WAR numbers generally tell you everything you need to know about a player.
Joe, I think the dislike of WAR stems largely from a pushback against progress. That and trying to wrap everything up in one neat number, a number that is known to be imperfect. (Of course, how many people complain about QBR in football?)
Triple Crown numbers have limited value, but they’re concrete. No “analytics nerd” can change them. That’s appealing to some, and it’s what they grew up with, so they’re resistant to change.
And I’m no young tike saying, “Okay, boomer!” to those who don’t like WAR. I’m probably as old as, or older than, a lot of people who don’t like WAR. But I’ve been aware of the analytics revolution for over 20 years, and I’ve done a reasonable job keeping up with the changes. It doesn’t make me better than anyone, just maybe more interested in the evolution of how MLB teams put together their rosters.
Joe – I have an open mind. Since basically everybody agrees that incorporating defense in WAR is highly controversial and far from accurate, let’s stick with oWAR.
Convince me as to why Xander’s oWAR was higher than Devers last year.
Devers had the better OPS
Devers had the better OPS+
Devers had way more Total Bases
Devers had the same number of GIDP
Devers had 61 more PA’s
Devers was intentionally walked 7 times to Xander’s 2
Devers had a far better OPS with RISP (.992 to Xander’s .834)
In fact Devers had a way better OPS in every clutch situation (2 Outs & RISP, Late & Close, and Tie Game)
And Xander had the advantage of batting directly in front of Devers for most of the season, which means he got a lot more good pitches to hit.
So looking at all the hitting stats, there is NO WAY Xander’s oWAR should be higher than Devers. That’s why WAR in general is considered a BS stat.
Prove me wrong.
Fever,
I don’t have the time right now to dig into the details of their stats, but I’ll make a few comments.
Bogaerts had a higher OBP, and avoiding outs in very valuable.
The difference in their oWARs is 0.6, which isn’t all that significant.
I don’t think “WAR in general is considered a BS stat.” Many people appreciate and use it while acknowledging it’s imperfect.
gbs – Thanks, I am truly interested in somebody someday providing a cohesive argument to support the reason why they value WAR or at least oWAR so much. I understand as a non-standardized stat it can’t be quantified, and it’s easy for some to look at just the one stat instead of looking at multiple stats like I do, but I’ve seen too many examples where it just doesn’t make sense.
I appreciate those who acknowledge it’s not perfect. My concern now is that it will become a center of controversy if a new CBA incorporates the use of WAR as a means of determining compensation, which is what has been proposed already.
BTW – I did specifically mention GIDP as a comparison of avoiding outs, but other elements such as baserunning are truly impossible to assess. Really even GIDP are difficult to assess, dependent on how good the baserunner in front of you is.
My biggest complaint is the “no such thing as clutch” mantra of WAR aficionados. One look at those clutch stats between Xander and Devers shows exactly who you’d want at the plate in big situations, and that should be valued more than anything.
Agreed. I always look forward to reading your comments and observations. As I’m sure you are aware I’m a Yankee fan, always so valuable to see how a fan of your chief opponent thinks.
While I certainly don’t have a comprehensive knowledge of WAR, my understanding is it’s based on the expected average of events.
As one example, if a runner on second scores 53.2% of the time on a single (a totally made-up percentage), if a hitter gets a single in that situation and the run scores, he gets the credit for the 53.2% gain of in success over the 46.8% chance the runner doesn’t score. And the runner gets a similar bump. Same thing with the pitcher getting dinged for it.
Again, I’m not 100% sure that’s correct., and detailed breakdowns of WAR calculations can be found at FanGraphs, though they’re very long.
library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/
I do appreciate that the second sentence in that link says, “You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players.” FG recognizes and acknowledges WAR’s limitations.
One issue with this approach is that each specific event will have a percentage that’s not the same as average. If a speedy runner is on second, he’s more likely to score than a slower one. I’m not sure how, or if, this is accounted for.
Second, FG and B-Ref use different ways of calculating events, which of course gives different numbers. Neither site likes the idea of using their WAR values for performance bonuses. The numbers change (usually slightly) as new information is learned and incorporated. And the possibility of someone trying to 1) cater their game to increase their WAR or 2) someone trying to influence how either site calculates WAR are non-zero. If MLB is going to use a system like this, they need to create their own WAR calculation, which of course still would have problem #1.
Lastly, “clutch” has been found to largely – but not fully – be unrepeatable season to season. If Xander or Devers was more clutch in 2021, there’s little evidence to indicate that trend will continue in 2022. That being said, there’s also some evidence that “clutch” isn’t necessarily about a player elevating his game in tight situations as much as it’s about not getting worse in those situations.
Sorry for the long post. I feel kind of like “Please Hammer,” but at least I’m not repeating myself three times in the same post.
gbs – Thanks, and no need to apologize. Nothing wrong with several paragraphs as long as it’s on point, which yours is. I can and certainly have been quite verbose at times myself. I actually enjoy reading long posts that are well written, which yours is.
And I would never compare you to Hammer. LOL
Mickey – Thanks, I enjoy reading yours as well.
Yeah, Mickey with a 7 is easily identifiable in my household. Growing up in a state that is 45% Sox fans and 45% Yankee fans, you get to become really familiar with both teams.
One look at those clutch stats between Xander and Devers shows exactly who you’d want at the plate in big situations, and that should be valued more than anything.
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I don’t doubt that some players can be more or less clutch. But people intermingle or interchange clutchness with just being a better hitter. My second issue with clutchness is that there is no defining definition. MLB-R has a stat for “late and close” as well as “high leverage”
2-Devers has an .880 OPS for “high leverage” and only .838 for late an close. That is a significant difference.
1-Devers has better clutch stats than Bogaerts because he has better stats to begin with. In late & close situations, both Bogaerts & Devers average 98.9% of their regular stats. For high leverage, Devers is at 104% and Bogaerts is at 102%
You guys are showing how stats can be manipulated to reflect one’s opinion & both bring up valid point. I perceive DJL as above average, and here’s why: Even if DJ fit offensively into more of an average statistical performance, one cannot overlook his typical defensive prowess. When an athlete performs average-above average on one side consistently and above average consistently on the other, he’s above average overall.
Last year DJ was not himself defensively and suffered offensively too. I have to agree with DarkSide on this one.
His career OPS+ is 101. Playing in Coors inflated his triple-slash line.
That being said, his defensive versatility is beneficial, and he’s averaged 3.3 bWAR per 162 games. He’s above average but not exceedingly so.
I think he benefits form having 3 (2 plus 60/162) really good seasons, significantly better than his “normal” season where he has been decidedly below average. BUT, players do “figure it out” and achieve great success at times. However, the pitchers figure it out and adjust. It’s an endless game. I just think that if you look at the whole of his performances, it should not surprise anyone if he underperforms in the future. He had that one great year in Colorado but he did not maintain that level of performance. I would still take him on my team, he’s flexible, hard working, and a good guy.
“form” gaaaaa FROM
Turning 65 in a couple fo weeks, I’m losing it.
“fo” gaaaaa OF
Sorry, I couldn’t resist. Just poking a little fun. 🙂
The issue with most of the discussion is that it is backwards looking, discussing his seasons with CO, career WAR/season, etc.
My interest is in going forward. Maybe the injury was significant or just a minor annoyance. I guess that, at almost age 34, I don’t see a lot of comeback in him. He has a career high in HR/FB of 11.1%, outside of 19 & 20,when he had 19.3% and 27%.. And almost of that damage was at Yankee Stadium. He had 27 HRs in 381 ABs, or 43 HRs per 600 ABs. I see no way that is sustainable.
And while he use to be a GG-level fielder, his numbers over the past three years have become closer to league average.
Good points all around. A 34 year old who is dependent on BA and may not be much of a power threat without a juiced ball. We’ll see how much the hernia was a factor. As I said earlier, probably above average, but not by a lot.
Why would he take 6 @ $180 when the Mets gave 3 @ $150 to a 36 year old P. It’s going to be hard to extend/sign him but they should. In the OF he turns 2B in singles. Brings HR back for the out.
No 36-year-old pitcher got 3/$150M from the Mets.
Scherzer is 37 and got 3/$140M.
Waste of money everyone is laughing
Why would they give him 6 he’s going to be another lemahieu or hicks.
Why would they give him 6 he’s going to be another lemahieu or hicks.
Dj LeMahiepoo
Hey! Not fair! Mr…. Or Mrs. Kim. Say it again, I double-dog-dare ya.
It’s kind of interesting how a team let go all their young players without any compensation and signed a bunch of cripples because they had fairly good not to say average seasons in the past.
Only one team will do that
The one who’s general manager is mr cash
It’s kind of interesting how a team let go all their young players without any compensation and signed a bunch of cripples because they had fairly good not to say average seasons in the past.
Only one team will do that
The one who’s general manager is mr cash
I’m confused and I read your comments twice – not because I didn’t understand it but because you posted it twice.
Anyway, your premise is incorrect. They have a top 10 farm system. They didn’t let all their young players go. In fact, Cashman is more often than not known as a prospect hugger. I also don’t understand the signing cripples reference, unless you’re referring to their pitchers because they definitely target injured SP for cheap acquisitions.
Nevertheless, DJ is not injury prone, Stanton was an MVP and not injury prone when they got him, Judge was a Yankee baby bomber, Cole’s not injury prone, Sanchez is home grown, Torres is durable and was a minor league asset acquired, Gallo is durable & Urshela was durable before last season.
Voit, Hicks, & SP had health issues repeatedly. I’d say that’s hardly a “signing old cripples” trend for the recent Yankees, but that’s me.
That’s an interesting issue on the team every player gets sick on the team and when they go somewhere else they’re back and healthy again.
Just curious Mr. Yankee Clipper who rates the Yankees as a top 10 farm system? Just curious because I can’t find a single prospect tanking service that has the Yankees as a top 10 farm system.
“Ranking”
Here’s two of at least four that I’m aware of for ‘22: it’s ESPN & BP. So, maybe just look a bit at some of the normal farm ranking places?
abc7chicago.com/sports/kiley-mcdaniels-2022-mlb-fa…
prospects1500.com/milb/2022-mlb-farm-system-rankin…
Yankee Clipper I follow the minors closely. Baseball Prospectus has NY at 13 the only one that has the Yankees is the kid at ESPN and he has the Mariners as the 6th rated farm he has no clue what he’s doing. The Yankees have mid tier farm let’s see how Fangraphs rates them but I’m telling you ESPN doesn’t care about baseball and that list is a joke. I would look at BA, BP, and Eric at Fangraphs if you want real prospect rankings. I will have to admit was shocked that even a clown ESPN would rate the Yankees farm so high.
Prospects 1500 has the Yankees 10th. Look at the link I provided. You are looking at ‘21 rankings, not ‘22 I assume.
prospects1500.com/milb/2022-mlb-farm-system-rankin…
Bruin: What you seem to suggest is that since you subjectively disagree (presumably as a RS fan) with the higher farm system ratings, you question their validity based on the rater’s subjectivity, which is the very foundation of your argument. It’s…counterintuitive.
I simply provided the information for which you asked to back up my assertion that the Yankees farm is in fact ranked as a Top 10 Farm System. I’m not rendering my own ranking, but your personal view does not render my factual statement incorrect. Can we at least agree on that?
Yes there is one place where, ESPN, that rates them a top 10 farm that is a fact. BP has them at 13, BA has them at 13, Keith Law has them at 22 and we will wait and see where Fangraphs and MLB has them ranked later. So yes you are correct ESPN rates them as a top 10 farm not sure I would want to claim that seeing as how bad ESPN has become. I will have to say the Yankees farm is better overall then what I expected.
Okay, that’s fair. What about Baseball Prospects 1500? They are a well known prospect resource. That’s the link I’ve provided, twice, in the response that had them 10th.
Also, I feel they will be higher as the next season moves deeper, unless prospects graduate to MLB, then it will plummet.
Honestly I watch a lot of minor league baseball but I didn’t watch as much of the Yankees minors but I did go back and watch Volpe and Dominguez after Dominguez was in A ball so really can’t talk about the other guys in the Yankees minor did watch some of Peraza not real sure about him offensively.
You are right I am a Red Sox fan but in the offseason, especially, I watch a lot of minor league baseball from the previous year. I am impressed with Volpe he seems to make adjustments I think he will be very good and I wouldn’t trade him I think he is going to be a good one. I am just not impressed with Dominguez and Peraza. In the end it just boils down who makes it and I would bet on Volpe. The only thing I see with Volpe is the increased K% from A ball to High A and the big drop in walk percentage very similar to Nick Yorke his large jump in K% from low A to high A but that is just nitpicking on both prospects.
Yes, I agree there. I worry about Peraza’s sustainability on offense & Dominguez is very, very young in age & career. His bar was set incredibly high, but he has a lot of work to do. He has the tools, but he needs the work. I watched him live in Tampa several times as well and was not impressed with what I saw, compared with what I heard (not a slam, just an observation). So, I understand what you’re saying.
The biggest mistake Cashman makes, imo, is putting out a mediocre team like last year, then burning the farm at the trade deadline to make the playoffs. The RS have an equal or better farm (depending on what you’re looking at) and the best player of the ‘21 draft. They also were a better team last year and hit a wall at the end. If they improve, even marginally, Yankees are in big trouble.
If Judge was Machado and Harper’s age when reaching free agency it would be different but the problem is he will cost too much money.
Yankees should allocate the money elsewhere, say on pitching. Severino and Cole (without pine tar) isn’t promising.
I don’t really think signing Judge longterm will benefit the team much. I wouldn’t sign Judge for more than 2 years but a team like the Mariners (e.g. Cano), or Mets (e.g. Lindor) will offer him 8 year 240m deal. No thanks. Yankees are already handicapped by Cole and Stanton’s albatross contracts
Judge will hook up with Boras if it goes on too long.
I can picture the Angels signing him to an albatross Pujols-type contract and further inhbiting Trout’s chance at a ring by building a team of old and broken down players around Trout lol
Looked Bowman up on Savant.
Interesting pitch mix for a reliever. He throws 5 pitches (4 seam, cut, & split finger FB’s, slider, & curve) between 11.5 & 37.5% of the time with an occasional 2 seamer. Kind of a Shane Greene, Tyler Clippard type – which could certainly provide an effective counterpoint amongst our current relievers.
You’re up early, happy Saturday.
I’m a morning person.
I generally don’t have much work stuff to do this time of year. But I’ve a walk-through (window install) with a homeowner this morning. I’ll try to kick up some cottontails with the pup after that. Son’s basketball game tonight. & I have a banging scheme in the works. Shaping up to be a pretty good day.
Enjoy yours too, man.
Wife and I going for a run and then there’s a long to do list waiting. Sigh.
I’ll warn Peter that you’ll be out there. Not that he will listen. Rabbit season!
Do you ever talk baseball with your clients as a Yankee fan? For some reason, from RAB days, I’m thinking you’re somewhere out Minneapolis way, which means it could be dangerous!
Peter is too busy making 15 baby Peters to pay attention. Enjoy your run & your honey-do list.
Yeah, I’m still in Minneapolis for the time being.
& hardly ever. Twins fans loathe us. When we played them in in ’19 the topic of a local radio show was, “would you rather win the World Series or beat the Yankees?” Bro. “beat the Yankees” won! I just can’t…man…that’s nuts.
Vikings fans really hate the Giants too- which seems like a pretty over the top reaction to The Kerry Collins Game.
Either way, I’m U of M alum. So those are the hats I wear in front of my homeowners. Try to cover up my accent, etc.
My experiences in Minnesota have all been positive, but I’ve only been there in the summer. I used to travel quite a bit on business, so I’d always try to take in local games, and went to a few at the Metrodome. Always had good interactions with the fans, but my trips to that area were about 20 years back. They may be angrier today!
Weird question, Ducky, but most NYers who leave end up in NC or Fla. how in the world did you end up in a colder, more northern place?
After it was made clear to me that my football & baseball days were over, I had to figure out, “what next?” Decided on architecture. University of Minnesota was the highest ranked (8th at the time) program I was accepted into (turns out I’m not Berkeley material, Clip).
Liked it as soon as I got here.
Came back after the Corps because of a girl (of course, uh?). I’ve gone out west a couple times but that wasn’t me either. Came back here. However: my years in MN are numbered (taxes, politics too a bit) but I will just move to the Dakota’s or Iowa.
Like I said, I like it out here.
Not for everyone though.
That’s really cool, man. I think we have a lot more in common than just birthplace and favorite team. I want to move to a place with lower taxes, less populated, better political environment (maybe just less political?), & enjoy the places most people say, “Why would you move there?”
I really like NC & TN, but especially fond of TN because of the reasons stated above. I’d like the Smokey’s area and been there a couple times. Mountains and woods are cathartic for me.
Well, we seem to have a similar sense of humor.
& what you’re describing is the upper Midwest.
Smokey’s are beautiful, bro. I’ve camped & hunted in them. I find my tranquility in the woods & on the water myself. The key is: no people. I become less & less impressed by humanity. Bro. All this divisiveness is not very cool.
Exactly. When people respond with, “You have to drive to get to your neighbor’s house!” I’m saying, “Yeah, sign me up!”
Ducky, you win for mentioning Bowman. He got totally overlooked in the thread, which understandably has been monopolized by either LeMahieu or Judge. Happy hunting.
Well, Cash has assembled a pretty good ‘pen.
We have a fleet of lefties; Chapman, Rodriguez, Luetge & Peralta. From the right; Green, Loaisiga & multiple young power righties. That’s already a good bullpen.
But we could use some kind of unique look from the right. The damn Ray’s always have an arm like that. Was kind of hoping O’Day would exercise his option for that reason.
I’ve been thinking we could go after one of those extreme slider guys. Romo, a side armer. Like that.
I have begun looking at bullpens like I do offensive lines or linebackers in football. As a group. The only missing “type” or “style” is a RH “non-power”(?) arm. Bowman could be it. I generally trust Cash to put together a good pen, ‘2020 notwithstanding.