Clayton Kershaw is staying put, as the Dodgers announced he’s re-signed on a one-year contract. The deal reportedly guarantees him $17MM and contains incentives based upon his number of appearances. The Excel Sports Management client will earn $1MM for reaching each of 16, 20, 22, 24 and 26 appearances next season. He’d also receive a $1.5MM bonus in the event he wins the Cy Young Award next season, with a $500K finish for a second or third-place finish.
It’ll be Kershaw’s fifteenth season in Dodger blue, as the future Hall of Famer returns to the only organization he’s ever known. The front office allowed him to hit free agency for the first time this offseason, but team executives consistently maintained they’d love to keep him in the fold.
Very early in the offseason, it became apparent that the Dodgers and Rangers were the favorites for his services. The 2014 NL MVP didn’t tip his hand publicly about where he was leaning, but Texas and L.A. each had their respective positives. The Rangers offered the Highland Park native a chance to play near his hometown, in addition to the opportunity to reunite with Texas manager Chris Woodward, who’d previously served as a coach with the Dodgers. Yet Los Angeles offered organizational familiarity and a more immediate path to postseason play.
Kershaw is obviously among the greatest pitchers in franchise history, and it stands to reason the Dodgers would’ve wanted to keep him around for legacy purposes alone. He’s claimed five ERA titles, posting a sub-3.00 mark in eleven of his last thirteen seasons. He’s a three-time Cy Young award winner and finished in the top five in NL balloting each season between 2011-17. The veteran southpaw has led the league in strikeouts on three occasions and was a key contributor on the 2020 World Series winning team.
Yet there’s little question the Dodgers — again one of the top on-paper contenders in the league — also were motivated to bring him back because they believe he’ll still be an effective pitcher in 2022. The 33-year-old (34 next week) is no longer the undisputed best pitcher in the sport, but he was still among the top performers on a rate basis last season. Last year’s 3.55 ERA was his highest since his 2008 rookie campaign, but it’s nevertheless solid run prevention. And Kershaw’s peripherals were better, right among the top of the league.
Kershaw struck out a lofty 29.5% of batters faced while walking a minuscule 4.3% of opponents. His 16.7% swinging strike rate was a personal best, the number one mark in the league among pitchers with 100+ innings. He finished sixth in strikeout/walk rate differential (25.2 percentage points) and fifth in SIERA (3.10). Few other starters were that productive on a pitch-by-pitch basis, although Kershaw was limited to 121 2/3 innings and 22 starts by a late-season health scare.
The southpaw missed two months between July and September due to inflammation in his elbow/forearm area. He returned to make a few starts but dealt with renewed discomfort in his final regular season outing. That forced him to undergo a season-ending platelet-rich plasma injection, although he avoided surgery and has generally been expected to be a full-go for the start of the upcoming campaign.
Presuming his physical comes up clean, the Dodgers will install Kershaw back into a key rotation role. They’re in a better position than most teams to weather any potential concerns regarding his workload, given the depth on the roster. Walker Buehler and Julio Urías are at the top of the rotation, while David Price, Tony Gonsolin and offseason signee Andrew Heaney could all factor in at the back end. Dustin May could make a midseason return from May 2021 Tommy John surgery. It’s unclear whether Trevor Bauer will face a suspension from MLB, but he remains on the roster at present.
It’s an enviable group, and a top trio of Buehler, Urías and Kershaw could again be a nightmare for opposing offenses in a short postseason series. Yet it’s not out of the question the Dodgers keep trying to add there; they showed at last summer’s deadline in acquiring Max Scherzer they’re never afraid to pursue elite talent if the opportunity presents itself.
The $17MM guarantee will push the Dodgers’ payroll commitments — including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players — to around $245MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. They opened last season in the $248MM range, although the midseason acquisitions of Scherzer and Trea Turner pushed that figure up substantially.
Los Angeles’ luxury tax number (which is determined by summing contracts’ average annual values rather than real salaries) now sits right around $250MM. That’s $20MM north of the new collective bargaining agreement’s base threshold and right at the first surcharge marker. Los Angeles is all but certain to pay the luxury tax for a second straight year. Because they’ll be a repeat payor, the Dodgers would be subject to a 30% tax on every dollar spent between $230MM and $250MM; they’ll be taxed at a 42% rate for expenditures between $250MM and $270MM. As the club showed last season in blowing past all three thresholds, though, that’s not a concern for ownership in certain circumstances.
Kershaw’s return to L.A. no doubt will come as a disappointment to the Rangers, who had made no secret of their affinity for him. Texas has been among the most aggressive clubs this offseason, signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray in a pre-lockout frenzy, but the rotation is very light on certainty. Kershaw would’ve immediately stepped in as the Rangers’ top arm and a veteran voice for their younger starters. With him off the board, it’s possible Texas looks for more affordable stopgap options for the rotation — on deals similar to this afternoon’s $4MM reunion with Martín Pérez.
Kershaw and Carlos Rodón were quite arguably the final two top-of-the-rotation starters available in free agency coming into the day. Kershaw returns to L.A., while Rodón agreed to terms on a two-year pact with the archrival Giants. Yusei Kikuchi and Zack Greinke are the only currently-healthy unsigned starters who made MLBTR’s pre-offseason Top 50 Free Agents. With the top of the market now picked through, rotation-needy teams figure to turn to trade candidates who might offer mid-rotation or better production. The Reds and A’s are generally expected to make impact starters available over the coming weeks.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported Kershaw was returning to the Dodgers on a one-year deal. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network was first to report the guarantee and the presence of incentives. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the incentive structure.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
World is as it should be in this department
If his base salary is only $17M, he must have some huge incentives in this contract. You would think the contract could top out around $25M – $30M. Since you can’t have any statistical incentives in contracts (ERA, Wins, WHIP, strikeouts, etc), they have to be mostly based on number of appearances/starts or IP. I’m sure there is a Cy Young bonus in there too but I would think if he’s able to reach 150 IP or 25 starts then this contract will pay him at least $25M for those achievements.
Its not guaranteed Kershaw is ready to start the season, regardless of what the article states. Therefore the $17 million falls in line with the probable half season he will pitch. Expecting 30+ starts for Kershaw is both unfair and unrealistic at this point in his career. Plus as far as payroll is concerned the spector of Trevor Bauer still looms large over the Dodgers at this moment
I don’t believe it has anything to do with any probable half season, it has to do with his age and coming off an injury. We also don’t know anything yet about the performance bonuses (I laugh at them being call incentives), but like his previous contract he will no doubt have the ability to earn a lot more if he remains healthy.
The article forgot his MVP win.
Match the Giants!
The Giants could have either a really good rotation (Webb, Wood, DeSclafani, Rodon, Cobb) or a really big disaster on their hands. Guess we’ll wait and see
Let it rain down upon us, transactional fortitude.
“Heavy industry expectation…..” Glad all the parties stayed away from the negotiating during the lockout punchbowl.
Nice. He would have looked weird in another uniform. Glad he’s staying
Me too. He’s one of my all time favorite players.
well to be frank – he wouldn’t have looked weird in a royals uniform
Giants fan here – I agree he is Dodger as it should be.
One hell of a pitcher and a great competitor – plays the game the right way. Glad to be bake see him pitch this year.
And from all known information, a great person too. I have obvious bias, but: how he handled the high profile losses; how he didn’t get into the blame game after the penalties to Houston and Boston; and his humanitarian efforts. He’s an extremely competitive, good guy who has a grounded , humble perspective on life.
Meaning, it would really suck to see him wearing anything other than a Dodger cap.
Thought the Orioles might sign him.
I had 50 bucks on the buccos
And the Bucs had $50 bucks on Kershaw, hence him signing elsewhere.
Side note: the vagueness regarding the reports that the Rays made an offer to Freeman.
They tried to get him to play a half year in St. Pete, and then go play in LA beginning in July. A “sister city” player.
As much as I hate the Dodgers, and I do…. Good.
Hall of Fame players that can retire playing their entire career for one team is good for baseball.
It’s a one year deal… after this year it could change
It could, but I hope it doesn’t.
This will be his last year. I’m anti everything Dodgers, but this is as it should be. Terrific pitcher, a lifetime Dodger (damn it).
Yes, he will retire
Shame. He should at least aim for 200 wins. Not that he needs to, but it would be nice.
He might go the 2 years needed to get to 200. Especially if ke continues to strike guys out at a good clip, he could get to 300 in 2 years as well.
I suspect passing up Sutton for all time Dodger Ks leader (to go along with ERA) will matter a bit more once he retires.
Kershaw has said more than once that he plans on playing for as long as he’s able to contribute. If you take him at his word (and why would you not?) then that explains the short term deal. In his own mind he’s taking this year by year. Totally expected if you listen to what the man says.
He’ll take it year by year until his arm falls off next season. Dude is cooked.
Agreed – Have to believe the deal is for half price figuring he’s about a 50 percent chance to need TJS.
I wouldn’t say he’s cooked but I’m glad he signed there because the odds that he makes even twenty starts are slim to none.
He will go to the Dodgers this year ( better chance of winning) and then he will go to the Rangers and retire there, next season they will be ready to win.
lol
Stupid… Terrible move on LAD for a washed up pitcher.
– Kidding. I echo Halo11’s sentiments. He’s still a solid mid-rotation guy and should remain with LAD. I’m one in the minority, I suppose, that really believes in the value of a one-team player, especially when they’ve had a career like Kershaw (as opposed to, say, Gardy).
Kershaw is a number 2 starter on most teams who can probably only be counted on for 20-25 starts. For a team like Dodgers, he is worth the money on merits even apart from PR and legacy. And while Buehler and Urias were top six starters in the entire NL last year, none of us know what will happen with Bauer, will he be suspended for the whole year, will he be any good if he comes back mid-season, etc.
Solid number 3 on a playoff team.
It’s gonna be tough for him to get to 25 starts but 20 might be in reach if they limit his innings. The real need is for him to be healthy for the postseason. I hate the Dodgers but am a huge Kershaw fan so I hope he has a good season.
Not really surprising to be honest.
should’ve known better when i made my predictions.
I totally forgot the predictions were a thing.
For it to be a one year deal, maybe he’s contemplating retirement soon
Might just not want to screw with changing teams this late in the offseason.
Ehhh?
Can’t say I’m surprised by this. Never bought into all the Kershaw to the Rangers talk, just didn’t seem all that likely (since they aren’t at that point in the win curve where such a short term, high cost addition makes much sense to them).
Whoo hooooooo!!!
At some point he’ll go play for Texas. Hopefully it’s not well past his prime.
Nah. He would have done it right now. He’s making small commitments and thinking about playing or retirement on a year to year basis. This deal means he’ll end in blue. 100%.
The injuries might also be a factor, his age really isn’t.
what if the dodgers get to a point they don’t wanna pay him much, but he doesn’t want to retire yet?
I still think he plays for Texas st some point.
@afsooner02.
Too late.
I said WELL past….not just past
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA so much for him signing with the Rangers!!!!!!!!!!!
Please simmer down
Yeah really! Even the Dodgers aren’t this excited. He’s an aging pitcher, past his prime with back issues. LA is happy with retaining a #3/#4 started, but let’s relax on the excitement.
Cheaper than Rodon with equal health issues for 2022.
Past his prime? That is saying literally nothing. At his prime Kersh was the best in the history of baseball
Yeah, as MannyMVP noted above, on many teams Kershaw could slot in @ #2 still.
Wut
Your diaper needs changing.
As expected.
This was the only logical choice. He was either retiring or returning to the Dodgers. It’s his legacy.
Damn!! Thought for sure he was going to head east to the Burgh!
made me spit out my coffee
That should be an Onion headline.
This announced as Bauer put on leave
He’s been on leave since last July.
Yes, now weeklong, curious how that differs and why now?
No difference, it’s one of many extensions of the admin leave he’s been on since last year. The fact that it’s for only a week suggests the commissioner will be making his suspension decision soon.
Thanks
Roberts all but confirmed today the team is bringing back Bauer when his suspension or lack of one occurs. If the team was releasing him, Roberts wouldn’t have said what he did
They don’t have much of a choice but to bring him back. They aren’t eating that much money to release a guy and the MLBPA would never let them void the contract.
You’re getting way ahead of the game in talking about voiding contracts. First the suspension, then the appeal, then the lawsuit.
There is no chance the contract gets voided. He will def be suspended but once that suspension has been served the league will consider the matter closed just like they have with every other player who has been suspended.
No, what Roberts actually said is he hasn’t heard anything and has no idea. Miles away from what you claim.
In what would a team allow the manager to say they “wouldn’t close the door” on a player they are going to get rid of. If the Dodgers decided they were done with Bauer, Roberts would have been told to say nothing.
When have you ever known Dave Roberts to say nothing? This is him playing Mr. Diplomacy. You conveniently took the quote out of context. Most of it was him saying it isn’t my department.
BlueSkies: Do you still feel at this point he won’t pitch for LAD again? I’m not so sure with the money involved, but I suppose that does depend on his length of suspension too. Just curious as to your thoughts at this stage –
Highly unlikely, is my feeling. To date, every other player who has been sanctioned under the joint policy has acknowledged their violation of it and accepted a negotiated suspension. Bauer almost certainly won’t, he seems to be anxious to be the first player to challenge the policy. Instead of agreeing to a suspension (which could be “time served” at this point) he will fight it, first through the appeals process provided in the policy, and then in court. Bauer says he’s good at only two things, throwing a baseball and pissing people off. Since he can’t do the former, he’ll concentrate on the latter. This is called burning your bridges before you come to them.
The probable lawsuit is why the Dodgers are being so cagy about this. Nothing anyone in the organization says about the situation helps them, and it could hurt. Best case scenario for the Dodgers is he serves a suspension. Then they put him on the trade market and see what if anything they can get back for him. Otherwise he’s a sunk cost.
Never in doubt.
We heard plenty of predictions here about how he was certain to sign with the Rangers. Let’s see how many confessions of error we get.
I thought most predictions leaned towards him staying. Not at all a Dodgers fan but I’m glad for him and Dodgers, much respect.
Rangers got Martin Perez so they’re good.
I just spit out my drink. Hilarious.
Thank you
Good for Clayton, the Dodgers and their loyal fans.
@norcalblue
The loyal fans that leave in the 7th inning?
Always cracks me up when I see the video of Gibson’s home run sailing into the right field seats, and in the background you can see a line of red tail lights from all the fans heading out.
I like this a lot – gives him and the team flexibility. It’s so reassuring to have CK back.
Not a surprising move, specifically after Max signed with the Mets.
All is right with the universe. Welcome back Clayton, let’s get add another ring to your phenomenal career in Blue!
woof that Rangers rotation is going to be brutal.
The Oakland Athletics missed out on their prized free agent.
This means he really was thinking about retiring. He’s giving it one more go. Any long stint on the IL and he’s calling it a career.
After Randy Johnson, he’s the best leftie in my lifetime.
This guy is about to turn 34 but it feels like he should be 54.
Little bummed he didn’t come to Texas, but that’s because he seems like a good dude. Happy to see him back in LA
Where is the user who posted over and over how the Dodgers not giving Kershaw the qualified offer was a massive mistake?
Probably in the same place as all the people who believed the “We declined to extend the QO out of goodwill/respect” narrative from Andrew Friedman wasn’t just creative spin.
Kershaw needs 330 K’s for 3000 and 15 wins for 200. If 2022 is his last season, he may go to HOF without either of those milestones. But he is a shoe-in first ballot HOF and seemingly a really stand-up guy.
No one whose opinion matters cares about 200 wins.
Pretty sure the voters will care, and their opinion definitely matters.
peanuts!
How does this effect their payroll? How much will they blow past the limit to add Freeman and his contract. Eventually they will just have every good player in the league and have a payroll to match the mets
In what world does Rodon snag 22 mill but Kershaw takes 17?
Kershaw took a discount because he’s a club legend. Rodon was over 2 years, too.
In today’s world, unless you’re living in the mid-2010’s. But then you’d be watching Kershaw come up small in the playoffs. He’s also liable to take a vacation for 10 starts mid-season under the guise of a “back ailment” because the LAD know he will be cooked by the time the playoffs roll around if they don’t give him time off. So $17M plus incentives sounds right.
He’s younger?
Every year, Clayton Kershaw looks more and more like a homeless man on the mound. I hope he learned how to manscape in the offseason and perhaps he’ll even don a new hat this year too. An occasional shower would also help…
With all that said, it has been a pleasure to watch him pitch over the years and I’m glad he chose to return to LA. I just hope his elbow will hold up for the entire season. The PRP injection is usually a sign of things to come but hopefully he can last one more season and give us some vintage Kershaw.
An occasional shower? Really?
2004 “”Caveman” Johnny Damon and other Red Sox players?? Who cares as long as you’re winning and Kershaw excels at it.
Maybe they can go back to the negotiating table and get that put into the CBA?
Too soon?
Mantooth:
You have lots of good posts, but I’ll give this one a thumbs-down.
Assuming both players somehow stay healthy all season, Rodon’s ceiling is well above anything Kershaw is capable of producing at this stage in his career.
Glad to see him back in LA. Now go have a top 5 SP type year.
Unless you have a time machine, I think you’ll be disappointed.
I’ll be happy if he makes it thru the season and wins 10-12 games as the 4th starter.
I think every Dodger fan would happily accept that (privately) so long as he can pitch in the playoffs. Most of those fans won’t say it out loud though. Deep down , they hopelessly yearn for just one more Cy Young season.
you got it right. It’s been fun, and frustrating (hehehe), watching him over the years. Real Dodger fans can both accept his new game will be different and hope he find a way to win 20 and then retire on that high not . Even if they didn’t win the series that would be a marvelous thing to see.
I just do not want to see him go out in disappointment, ya know? He paid many dues in his career and deserves that final season in the sun to be a bright one, no matter if this season or 4yrs from now.
Only $17 mil for Kershaw on a 1 year deal? Wow, nice discount.
Syndergaard threw 2 innings last year and got a 1/ $20 mil.
Syndergard- Is younger and has more upside.
Alot more upside. I’ll be surprised if Kersh makes it thru the season. I hope he does.
It’s good for the game if he stays healthy. It’s just unlikely.
I would bet on Kershaw over Syndergaard for “wins” and “ERA” in 2022. Either could do well, be injured most of the season, or do poorly. But if I had to bet ten bucks on who will have the better ERA or most wins, it would be Kershaw of the two in 2022.
God is in his heaven and all is right with the world!
FOH with that garbage.
The GOAT returns to lead the Dodgers to another world series!
It seems just like yesterday people were talking about him becoming the first 300 million dollar pitcher.
Say there’s 15 mill left to budget (theoretical)
How Id spend it
Grienke 1/8 mill
Brad Miller -1/3
Micheal A Taylor trade – 2/8 or just ink Pillar 1/4 (more likely)
Nothing Earth shaking, nothing past a year, some nice vets that fits the positions of b/u needs
Why not bring back Brett Anderson while they’re at it, that way they can have 3 starters from that 2015 roster that couldn’t win anything.
A little risky. But glad they did it. Now how to make Bauer disappear?
I’m 3 years older than Kersh and I feel like he’s been in the league for 20+ years, how is that?
Giants fan here – the mans a winner and a class act.
because it’s MLB years and they take their toll. BTW, I agree and I’m, well, some 30-mumble years older than that… 😉 It goes fast and slow all at the same time. I was a pro in a different sport for over 20yrs and one day it seemed as if I never played the game at that level. It’s a strange feeling of both frustration, sadness and eventual happiness looking back to the successes you had and the wonderful fun of the competition.
This will be their third 106-win season that ends before the World Series.
It’s always nice when a player sticks it out with one team over his career. (You hear that, Freedie Freeman?).
Basically Chipper Jones, Derek Jeter, Cal Ripken Jr…
Joey Votto, Buster Posey, Yadier Molina, Stephen Strasburg, Adam Wainwright, Kenley Jansen…
Jumping the gun on Jansen, aren’t we?
Reaching for arguments, aren’t we?
Craig Biggio, Edgar Martinez, Jeff Bagwell, Kirby Puckett, Mike Schmidt, Robin Yount, Tony Gwynn, Mariano Rivera, Todd Helton, Jorge Posada………..
Gary Sanchez….
(Hasn’t it been 20 years?)
Underpay…rich get richer. What else is new??
Good.
I hope it works out. Paid too much for damaged goods.
He deserves it. Kershaw should retire as a Dodger
He’ll start the season 1-8 with an era of 6.23 and announce his retirement at an presser at Dodger Stadium. He’ll pause twice due to tears
Nah, more like 12-6 with an ERA of 3.50, but missing 40+ games due to injuries. Which means, about what he is getting paid.
Stupid comment but, hey…at least you can like your own posts. @ramon, that is…
Nobody cares
Koufax is the best leftie of all time. Just to put that to bed.
Koufax versus Randy Johnson versus Lefty Grove. Arguments are there for any of those three.
Kershaw was a notch below, more like Carlton and Glavine.
Ghost Pepper & MannyMVP: If you’re interested, SSTN, a NYY news blog site does articles that includes topics such as: “All-Time Best LH Pitcher,” etc.
They authored an article on that topic recently and listed Koufax as the best lefty; so, I thought you (or anyone else) may take an interest:
https://startspreadingthenews.blog/start-spreading-the-news/sk030922
this is good i really could not see him pitching for any other team but the dodgers
But I thought “hE wAnTeD tO pLaY cLoSe To HoMe” way to mess up the dream Clayton
Dude is a Dodger and should be a Dodger. Like Freeman should be a Brave.
Yesterday was a huge day for baseball….
No, not the new CBA, whatever….
Joe Buck is gone.
And finally, football on Sunday afternoons will be watchable again.
Great day.
Pretty much figured he would stay with Los Karens.
I read the article Mr. Clipper. Awesome stuff!
Thanks
Phils-A’s trade proposal: Bohm, Painter, Muzzotti, Marchan or O’Hoppe, Moniak or Haseley, and Crouse for Chapman, Olson, and Montas.
Wonder why Kershaw is considered a legacy player and not Kenley Jansen?
Good question, but it has to be noted that nobody seems to be in hot pursuit of Jansen. That’s my wonder why.