This week, we (mostly) delve deeper into the minors to examine some fast-rising future stars.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Gunnar Henderson, 20, 3B/SS, BAL (AAA)
(AA) 208 PA, 8 HR, 12 SB, .312/.452/.573
Few prospects have done more to improve their stock than Henderson. Coming off a passable but unspectacular 2021 season, Henderson has torched minor league pitching. Since earning a promotion to Triple-A, he’s continued to punish opposing pitchers to the tune of .286/.500/.536 with two home runs in 40 plate appearances. He also has 12 walks against just five strikeouts. In Double-A, he posted 19.7 percent walk and 18.3 percent strikeout rates.
His outlandish performance to date is backed by scouting observations. I spoke with Orioles Director of Player Development Matt Blood prior to the season, and he specifically highlighted Henderson as someone who has turned the corner mentally. Last year, Henderson had some of the markers of passivity – namely a high walk rate, high strikeout rate, and a modest swinging strike rate. This season, he’s reportedly improved upon his selectivity, punishing pitches in the zone while continuing to spit on those outside the zone.
Henderson currently ranks 45th on the MLB Pipeline Top Prospects List. At this rate, he’ll soon join the Top 10 – unless he races to the Majors before the listmakers have time to adjust. The folks who curate your favorite prospect list tend to be quite conservative about upgrading guys based on a partial-season breakout, and with reason! We’ve seen many players post astronomical half-seasons only to later resume a more ordinary development path.
Michael Harris II, 21, OF, ATL (MLB)
70 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .328/.357/.537
To the best of my knowledge, Harris was the third position player to be promoted straight from Double-A to a Major League starting lineup this season. The first, C.J. Abrams, was overexposed in the Majors. Cubs utilityman Christopher Morel looks right at home in the big leagues. So too does Harris.
Harris makes low-angle contact with an all-fields approach. He’s also making frequent hard and barreled contact. Both rates are above league average as measured by Statcast. Taken together, he has the traits of a high batting average hitter. Where he seemingly lags is plate discipline. He’s taken a swing-happy approach in his first exposure to the Majors. He’s especially prone to offering at pitches outside of the zone. His in-zone swing rate is only a hair above league average. His contact rate is roughly league average too. In other words, his aggression hasn’t proven costly. Yet.
It’s not uncommon for physically gifted prospects to reach the Majors, perform surprisingly well, then slump once scouting reports adjust. In Harris’ case, scouts are going to advise a bevy of breaking balls out of the zone. If he plunges into a slump, he might get a belated taste of Triple-A. If he adjusts quickly or otherwise holds his own, then he’s probably here to stay.
Harris is the midst of an eight-game hitting streak over which he’s batting .433/.469/.800 with both of his home runs and steals.
Elly De La Cruz, 20, 3B/SS, (A+)
222 PA, 12 HR, 17 SB, .304/.351/.594
If you haven’t already heard about De La Cruz, expect to see his name appearing in more and more articles. Scouts love his build – he has light-tower power, near-elite speed, and a cannon of an arm. He already makes some of the loudest contact in the minors. While he’s mostly worked at shortstop, there’s an expectation he’ll eventually move to third base or perhaps even center field.
A prospect of De La Cruz’s ilk always comes with caveats. His plate discipline can be (generously) described as questionable. His current 6.3 percent walk rate is a marked improvement over the 4.8 percent rate he posted last season. Meanwhile, his 30.6 percent strikeout rate is right in line with his previous performance.
Given his current contact profile, he could fall into a Javier Baez-like mold. Or perhaps Oneil Cruz is the better comp. After all, they’re both physical mutants who might stick at shortstop. Cruz happened to post similar numbers as a 20-year-old in High-A, then held his own in Double-A later that year. Cruz even had questions about his plate discipline. The Reds have no incentive to rush De La Cruz, but he should sniff the upper minors in the coming months.
Matt Brash, 24, SP/RP, SEA (AAA)
19 IP, 3.32 ERA, 15.16 K/9, 5.21 BB/9
Brash entered the season in the Mariners rotation, dazzled in his debut, then proceeded to walk the world. I recall watching that first outing and worrying what would happen when hitters stopped swinging at his breaking balls out of the zone. He didn’t show any sign of being able to command anything within the strike zone. Sure enough, it quickly became a problem. The Mariners made the decision to demote him from the Major League rotation straight to the Triple-A bullpen. A relief role offers a more direct path for pitchers with Brash’s combination of filthy stuff and poor command.
Signs are pointing in the right direction. After some initial command-related struggles, Brash has shoved over his last 10 appearances. His 10-inning scoreless streak dating back to May 25 includes just five hits and two walks compared to 16 strikeouts. He once again appears to be ready for prime time. Unfortunately for him, the Seattle bullpen is fairly robust and will soon need to make way for Ken Giles (who happens to be flailing in his rehab assignment). Brash may need to await a couple injuries to reclaim a role.
George Valera, 21, OF, CLE (AA)
236 PA, 10 HR, 2 SB, .291/.398/.513
Expectations for Valera vary greatly depending on the source. I’ve seen Cleveland fans compare him to Mike Trout. I’ve also seen open skepticism about his hit tool. His performance this season hasn’t exactly supported either of these extreme interpretations. Instead, he seems to be trending as a steady regular outfielder.
Statistically, Valera works counts and runs a tolerable 11.6 percent swinging strike rate. That’s helped him to around a 23 percent strikeout rate any time he’s settled into a level. His strikeout rate tends to spike above 30 percent when he moves up a level. He’s seemingly nearing a promotion to Triple-A. We should probably expect another temporary surge in strikeouts when it happens. His pattern of struggling then dominating each rung of the minor league ladder is reminiscent of Jo Adell. Valera’s discipline should serve to ensure some kind of big league role.
Five More
Zack Gelof, OAK (22): A 2021 draftee, the Athletics promoted Gelof straight from Low-A to Triple-A last season where he held his own in a 13-plate appearance trial. They assigned him to Double-A this season. He’s hit .315/.372/.458. Gelof recently tore the labrum of his non-throwing shoulder and could miss the bulk of this season depending on the treatment plan.
Jackson Chourio, MIL (18): Every season, there’s one teenaged prospect who catches the imagination of every prospect watcher. Last year, it was De La Cruz. This season, it’s Chourio. Scouting reports abound with praise for the young outfielder. He’s currently swatting .347/.394/.599 with six home runs and five steals in 160 plate appearances. It’s uncommon for well-rounded athletes to show this much power as an 18-year-old. Chourio is a long way from the Majors, but his path is already paved. He just has to stay on it, and walk the remaining miles.
Andrew Painter, PHI (19): Painter made a mockery of the complex league, posting a 1.40 ERA with 16.06 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9. He’s shown advanced feel for a pitcher his age. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen notes how well he combines a high, arm-side fastball with a biting slider. He also throws a curve and changeup, both of which lag behind his two primary offerings. He’ll need to develop those in order to stick in the rotation. Painter was recently promoted to High-A.
Bobby Miller, LAD (23): A flamethrowing right-hander, Miller has experienced mixed results in Double-A. He’s posted a 4.60 ERA with 9.57 K/9 and 3.26 BB/9. There’s a Hunter Greene-ish feel to Miller. His fastball runs over 100-mph with regularity, but certain characteristics cause it to play down. There’s relief risk here, especially if the Dodgers don’t trade him. They have the resources to use him in whichever role provides the most instant gratification.
Noelvi Marte, SEA (20): Last week, I observed that a sliver of the shine has come off Marte. A prominent writer reached out for my sources, and I realized I’d misplaced the relevant comment. I’ll do a better job sourcing my material going forward. Presently Marte is putting up slightly better than average production as one of the youngest players in High-A. He remains an exciting prospect.
As a Cleveland fan, I have seen exactly zero Fans compare George Valera to Mike Trout. That’s a lot of pressure to put on anyone.
I’ve never seen that comparison made, either.
That one had my head scratching too. Im curious to know his source of “Mike Trout comparisons”?
I came here to say the same thing. Has there ever been a specific example of someone directly comparing Valera to Mike Trout? I love Valera and think he can be a really good player. But…come on.
Don’t make statements like that unless you have evidence. There are definitely some outlandish Cleveland fans, but the ones who follow their farm system generally know what they’re talking about.
Teams listed for the Five More! Thank you!
If you click on the player name hyperlink, it links to their BBREF page.
I know, but with the teams listed, that’s up to five trips to and from B-Ref I don’t have to make.
I think Harris is here to stay. So long as he hits okish (Ie, not as good as he is now) his defense is so valuable in that outfield that it would be hard to demote him. Plus, he’s young, so the swing and miss is expected, but even for as young as he is, the k rate through his career was never that bad. He’ll adjust
He’s fielding much better than Duvall was in CF and ATL continued to trot Duvall out there with a .180 AVG and 40% K-rate. That’s Harris’ floor because there really isn’t a better internal option (though he’s an exceptional talent). That being said, he’s a much better hitter than that even during a slump. Though he’s been swing happy, he gets on-base enough to make up for it. IMHO, he’s a young Markakis and the lineup would benefit from him moving up after this season, if Swanson departs (from the #2 spot).
Yes, this is what you have to take into account when reading analysis from MLBTR……
For pitchers the breakdowns are overweighed by K ratios as well as what pitches they throw (and often at what speed); for position players it’s well over 90% based on a breakdown of their hitting, with defense sometimes sprinkled in based on available metrics depending on how the individual writer wants to present a player.
In all those cases it shows nothing about a players Baseball IQ in the field – his ability to adjust to the game situation and contribute to his team winning (or not adjust and contribute to his team losing); his ability or inability to play against certain competition – quality teams/players, at times of games, etc. (Statistical people using publicly available data say: “there’s no such thing as clutch” – a backhanded way to give their analysis cred…..fact is that MLB teams now have internal / proprietary stats that in fact do break down how a player does in degrees of clutch situations and against what sort of competition.) It shows nothing about a players intangibles, including leadership ability and whether he’s taking actions on the field to help his team win or he’s trying to pad his statistics.
MLBTR offers a technical breakdown of players based on the individual writers interpretation of publicly available data. That’s a nice starting point. However, that often doesn’t meet the eye test if one understands how baseball is played and watches a lot of the player live. Statistics lie. Video lies. Always has. Always will. As Joe Morgan (the ballplayer not the manager) used to day: The only statistic that counts is W’s vs. L’s.
Statistical people look for statistical significance. That may be present occasionally but I think it’s a hard standard to meet. There are comparisons with how everyone else does in key situations to see if a player is better but there’s also just looking at the player’s performance in non-key situations versus key situations. Also, you have to quantify what you’re looking for. What constitutes clutch? A three run homer in the second inning when your ace is on the mound is absolutely a clutch hit. A ground out that advances the runner in a one run game is not glamorous but could be helpful. A twelve pitch at bat against a pitcher who has been in a groove can change things up later on. There are just so many examples of “clutch”. Managers recognize them all the time and should be on the same page as the statisticians in attempting to value these events. Heck, Davey Johnson earned a degree in mathematics. I think Joey Cora majored in math when he came to Villanova not speaking any English yet. All he accomplished was Academic All-American. There are some smart guys who have been on the field, and baseball needs to tap that talent.
whyhayzee;
Joe Girardi not only got into Northwestern’s Engineering school – he graduated from it. A science based on math, numbers and statistics. Young media types have been perpetuating narratives about others when it’s they that don’t understand the issue (happens with the American media in far more than baseball). They stereotyped Girardi (as well as others) as unable to comprehend baseball analytics. Yet their analysis is based not on forever unearthing more and more truths to improve processes, but rather joining the “settled science” crowd to claim – and monetize – their position. Science is never settled. Anyone that says it is is playing politics…….and science is not politics. Hence the world not being flat and Einstein’s Theory of Relativity.
The young media types think old guys like Tony Larussa doesn’t understand stats and Billy Beane is a hero because they saw the Moneyball movie. They didn’t read the book where they would have found that when Beane was hired as a scout, Larussa and GM Sandy Alderson (another old fart) were using statistics in decision making. In turn they taught that to Beane.
Total Quality Management is a process developed post-WWII by 2 guys that worked in the US Census Bureau (Dreming and Juran) and began to make used of data, pre-computer. They went Japan as a part of the MacArthur Commission to rebuild the country; and were instrumental in getting Japanese companies to embrace Continuous Improvement processes – something American companies resisted. Said it would take well over a decade to change the culture. It worked. To this day their manufactured products are the most reliable and long-lasting in the world.
The Astros and Dodgers are the most advanced MLB franchises using these techniques. You cannot steal from one organization to another, because a franchises processes are forever evolving based on input from those working there. It’s fun to watch.
“IMHO, he’s a young Markakis …”
RunDMC;
MLBTR never liked Markakis. They questioned his defense (while All-Star CF Adam Jones that played next to him in Baltimore said the biggest attribute Markakis had that the Orioles would miss was his defense), and thought that Braves paid him far too much money as writers would dump on him using select statistics.
Fact.
He’s a young Markakis if Markakis was a flashy fielder with a to of speed. Other than being good fielders with high averages and not a ton of power, there play styles really aren’t similar. Markakis was a very old school, laid back kind of player. Harris seems like the type of high energy player who leaves it all out on the field.
ATL continued to trot Duvall out there with a .180 AVG and 40% K-rate.
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It might have something to do with Duvall’s 6 HRs in 12 games.
Agree with bravesfan. Unlike the author of this piece I trust my eyes more than a book of stats and right now Michael Harris is the most disciplined hitter on the club – admittedly not a high bar to hurdle. It would take a seismic change to sent him to AAA.
Your source for Marte might have been Kyle Glaser: baseballamerica.com/stories/hot-sheet-chat-53122/?…
Henderson truthly is a top 5 prospect. He should be the next big call up for the Orioles. I am thinking he should be their 3B for the future. Westburg should be called up in a month or two if he keeps hitting. With him I would put him at 2B.
Orioles Fan;
The jokes about your teams organization and ineptitude are about to slowly turn. The process to build a solid organization with the farm system feeding the parent team good young players is beginning to take shape. I was touting Mullins for 2 years here before people picked up on him. The pitchers I love include Means, Zimmerman, Wells; the position players already called up include Hays, Mountcastle, Santander, and for the most important position on a MLB team – Rutschman. Hopefully Mullins and Mancini stay.
That is more quality young players than the Tigers have brought up, and look at all the friendly pub they got.
I’d look to 2024 when it will dawn of the front-runners that the Orioles are something special. Pretty much as the timetable set by MIke Elias.
(Pirates doing the same thing but started later.)
If Means is above average, that scews everything. 😉
Zimmermann got trounced and is back in AAA. I’m not sure he has what it takes. He gets hit HARD. Also, Mullins is having a subpar offensive season. His defense is still great, luckily.
The Orioles IF will be in good hands. In addition to Henderson and Westburg, Coby Mayo is doing great for a 20 year old at A+. He looks like an answer at 3B or 1B.
Mayo would likely go to RF before 1B. He has a grade 70 arm. I see a lot of people saying that’s where he’d end up if he doesn’t stick at 3rd, but I don’t think that’s the case.
Elly doesn’t have a team listed fyi
Glad to see teams in the Five More, but you neglected to tell us the team for De La Cruz.
Reds
No prospect has more helium than Esteury Ruiz.
Just check his MiLB page.
It’s MLB The Show like.
Mind boggling almost
No love for Emmanuel Valdez?
AB 206
AVG .359
HR 17
RBI 56
SB 4
OPS 1.152
You almost have to be a baseball player with a name like Gunnar Henderson.
Funny thing is he was the Alabama state HS player of the year in basketball his senior year.
Glad to see that PT is giving outfield reps to Oneil Cruz. Now MLB-R no longer has to run the service time articles about him. With 96 errors in 2663 innings, he was never going to play SS. How did the writers at MLB-R not know this?
Because they’re Freedom Fighters?
yo