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Astros Among Teams With Interest In Luis Castillo

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Luis Castillo is among the league’s highest-profile trade candidates. The hard-throwing righty is having another excellent season, and with a year and a half of remaining club control, he’s a good bet to move from the 34-55 Reds to a contender in the next couple weeks.

Virtually every win-now team figures to inquire on Castillo, who’d upgrade any rotation. The Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Mariners, and Twins have all been linked to tied to the Cincinnati starter in recent weeks. Erik Boland of Newsday (Twitter link) and Sweeny Murti of WFAN (on Twitter) both report the Astros are also in the mix. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that teams like the Mets and Padres, who’d been linked to Castillo early in the process, are likelier to prioritize adding offensive help than an impact starter.

That said, even teams with enviable rotation depth figure to at least kick the tires on Castillo over the coming weeks. Houston’s interest is indicative of that, as they have arguably the best starting pitching outlook in the game. Astros starters rank second in the majors in ERA (3.15) and innings pitched (505), while they’re ninth in strikeout percentage (23.6%). That’s in spite of zero contributions from Lance McCullers Jr., perhaps the team’s top pitcher in 2021, as he’s rehabbed from a forearm issue.

Few teams would be able to comfortably withstand an injury to a pitcher of McCullers’ caliber, but Houston’s rotation has thrived nevertheless. All six of the Astros starters to eclipse 30 innings this season have an ERA of 4.08 or lower. Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez own sub-3.00 marks. Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia are in the mid-3.00s with strong strikeout totals, while Jake Odorizzi (3.38) and José Urquidy (4.08) have solid results despite lacking huge whiff totals.

With McCullers also expected to return at some point after the All-Star Break, the Astros certainly don’t need to add another starter. Castillo’s performance, though, is impressive enough they’ll join virtually every other contender in checking in with Reds’ general manager Nick Krall and his staff. Despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home ballpark, Castillo has a 3.49 ERA with an above-average 26.8% strikeout rate and an elite 55.2% grounder percentage over the past three and a half seasons. That includes a personal-best 2.77 ERA through 13 starts this year. Castillo’s swinging strike and ground-ball numbers are down a touch, but he’s still been better than league average in both regards.

Castillo has been especially excellent of late, pitching at peak form as the August 2 deadline draws nearer. He’s allowed one or fewer runs in each of his past four outings, striking out 33 against nine walks over his last 27 innings. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic examined Castillo’s strong recent run this morning, noting that the right-hander worked with the Cincinnati coaching staff to tweak the grip on his four-seam fastball this year.

In addition to his excellent results, the 29-year-old would be an eminently affordable pickup for acquiring teams. He’s playing this season on a $7.35MM salary, approximately $2.9MM of which will remain to be paid out after the deadline. He should be in line for a decent arbitration raise next winter, but even a 2023 salary in the $12-15MM range would be a strong bargain for a pitcher of his caliber.

Cincinnati is widely expected to field offers on both Castillo and rotation mate Tyler Mahle, who is also in his penultimate year of club control. Andy Martino of SNY reports that talks on at least the former have yet to get underway in much detail, suggesting those discussions figure to accelerate after the upcoming amateur draft. The Reds are sure to set a lofty asking price once discussions begin in earnest. Heyman wrote earlier this week that Cincinnati was looking for one of the Yankees’ top shortstop prospects, Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza, to get Castillo talks underway. Heyman suggested last night that New York remains firmly against parting with either player, even after losing Luis Severino to the injured list due to a lat strain.

Sean Doolittle To Undergo UCL Internal Brace Surgery

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Nationals reliever Sean Doolittle will undergo an internal brace procedure to repair damage to the UCL in his throwing elbow, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post was among those to relay (on Twitter). That comes with a five-to-six month recovery timetable, so his 2022 season is over. Doolittle is hopeful of being ready by the start of Spring Training.

It’s a frustrating but not wholly unexpected development, as manager Dave Martinez told reporters yesterday that Doolittle was headed for evaluation after experiencing soreness during a recent bullpen session. The left-hander had been on the injured list since mid-April due to an elbow sprain, and his efforts to rehab were cut short by the setback. The small silver lining is that the damage wasn’t so extensive Doolittle required a complete Tommy John reconstruction.

The news could mark the end of the 11-year veteran’s second stint in Washington. Doolittle starred with the Nats between being acquired at the 2017 trade deadline through the end of the following season. His numbers tailed off a bit in 2019, but he still soaked up 60 innings and saved 29 games for the eventual World Series champions. Injuries cost him most of 2020, and he split last season between the Reds and Mariners. Doolittle returned to the Nationals on a buy-low $1.5MM guarantee during Spring Training.

He made six scoreless appearances before landing on the IL. He’ll again hit free agency after the season, and he may need to conduct a showcase for interested clubs whenever he returns to health next winter. Doolittle turns 36 years old in September, but there’s no indication the two-time All-Star isn’t planning to continue his career after working his way back from the upcoming surgery.

Big Hype Prospects: Meyer, Pratto, Ruiz, Greene, Cowser

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This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll check in with a few recent and upcoming promotees along with a smattering of others.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Max Meyer, 23, SP, Marlins
AAA: 58 IP, 10.09 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 3.72 ERA

Meyer is poised for his first taste of the Majors on Saturday, just ahead of the All-Star Break. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored at the time his promotion was announced, the northpaw has made short work of minor league opponents at all stops. His ascent has not been without caveat. Some commentators worry about his ability to hold down a rotation role in the Majors for three reasons. The first is easiest to dismiss as unnecessary fretting. At 6’0’’, Meyer is slightly undersized which can presage an inability to tolerate 180-inning workloads. That said, there are plenty of “short” pitchers in baseball history, most notably Pedro Martinez.

The second and third issues are a bit more worrisome. They tie together, too. Meyer’s fastball command isn’t as sharp as his walk rates suggest. He’s gotten away with using it in the zone in the minors, but he could run into some trouble in the Majors. He relies almost exclusively on his fastball and an elite slider, a combination which often portends a future in the bullpen. That said, lower caliber pitchers like Brad Keller and Brady Singer have managed mid-rotation quality results with the same repertoire. We’ve also seen a few others like Spencer Strider thrive this season while using a different two-pitch repertoire.

Nick Pratto, 23, 1B, Royals
AAA: 337 PA, 17 HR, 8 SB, .240/.373/.484

Like many of his power-hitting Major League colleagues, Pratto got off to a slow start this season before eventually finding his stride. The Royals have promoted him for a series in Toronto in which they’ve infamously left 10 players south of the Canadian border. As such, his debut might be short-lived.

Pratto is a classic patient, left-handed slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber. Like the upcoming Home Run Derby participant, Pratto runs a mid-teens walk rate while striking out in around 30 percent of plate appearances. He makes up for so little contact by punishing those with which he does connect. Nearly half of his batted balls are flies and over 20 percent of those leave the yard. Per a home run calculator I’ve developed, Pratto projects for 33 home runs per 600 plate appearances. While he’s shown a willingness to run, he has below average speed. Like Schwarber, Pratto will probably be a volatile performer whose carrying trait is slugging.

Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, Padres
AA: 232 PA, 9 HR, 37 SB, .344/.474/.611
AAA: 142 PA, 4 HR, 23 SB, .315/.457/.477

Ruiz draws his hype from our friends in the fantasy baseball realm where his combination of power and speed could make him one of the most celebrated players in the game. From a real-world perspective, there are a lot of things that could go wrong. Starting on defense, he only has about a year of experience as an outfielder. His routes can be inconsistent or even circuitous. Fortunately, he has enough speed to recover while he learns the position. Speed doesn’t guarantee eventual mastery as an outfield defender. Roman Quinn is similarly fleet and still takes baffling routes to the ball at times.

Scouts also worry about his hit tool. Prior to this season, Ruiz had consistently below-average plate discipline. He struggled with swinging strikes, strikeouts, and consistency of contact. Notably, he’s produced 13.9 percent walk and 17.4 percent strikeout rates this season across two levels. His swinging-strike rate has also improved. Perhaps a more selective approach has yielded better contact results (I’m still awaiting comment from my sources). Regardless, speed is his carrying trait. Nabbing 60 bases (69 attempts) in 374 plate appearances is seriously impressive work.
I’m reminded of Michael A. Taylor, an outfielder who, at his peak, occasionally hit for power, often stole bases, but never quite made enough contact to stick as a regular. He’s carved out a nice career based on gold glove caliber center field defense. As noted above, Ruiz will need to improve considerably to match Taylor on defense. The raw tools are there.

Riley Greene, 21, OF, Tigers
MLB: 109 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .255/.358/.340

Greene’s prospect eligibility will soon expire. His first taste of the Majors has yielded mixed results. On the one hand, he’s effectively working counts. His 21.1 percent strikeout and 7.9 percent swinging-strike rates exceed even the wildest hopes for his early-career performance. The swinging-strike rate, in particular, is a marked divergence from expectations.

On the other hand, Greene is supposed to be a power hitter. With just one home run, three doubles, and a triple to his name, he’s been one of the most punchless batters since his debut in mid-June. Only 19 players have a lower ISO over that span – mostly names like Geraldo Perdomo, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan.

Better times likely await ahead. Greene is making consistent hard and barreled contact. It’s also encouraging to see him make adjustments. He’ll need to continue to do so to correct for the biggest flaw in his profile – an over-50 percent ground ball rate. While he’s currently using a shift-proof all-fields approach, he’s the kind of hitter who could benefit from a more pull-centric profile.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, Orioles
High-A: 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
AA: 53 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .308/.491/.615

In a crowded Orioles system, a lot of attention is paid to Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall. However, Cowser is also a Top 50-caliber prospect who is quickly working his way towards a big league debut in early 2023. With a patient approach, good rate of contact, and a swing geared for high BABIPs, Cowser profiles as a top-of-the-lineup force. He produces premium line-drive rates while using an all-fields approach. A left-handed hitter, he won’t be as penalized by the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his right-handed hitting teammates. Yet, since he hits to all fields, he’ll still use the spacious left field pasture to splash doubles.

If Cowser has a shortcoming, it’s that he doesn’t consistently get to in-game power. As mentioned, his swing skews to low-angle contact. He produces plenty of well-hit balls, but his game is mostly geared around reaching base. In today’s MLB, you never know when a player will make an adjustment that unlocks another gear, but it’s not strictly necessary in Cowser’s case. The Orioles have plenty of mid-lineup bats penciled into their future lineups. However, they could use a leadoff hitter who works counts and jumps on mistakes in the zone.

Five More

Michael Massey, Royals (24 years old): Another temporary beneficiary of the Royals’ roster triage, Massey isn’t technically a hyped prospect. However, my best scouting resource has been talking him up for a full year as a future regular. While it isn’t the most exciting profile, he skews to line drive and “fliner” contact which helps him to run high BABIPs while also regularly hitting for extra bases. The elevated BABIP will be necessary if he’s to be an above average hitter – his plate discipline and contact skills are slightly below average. Defensively, he profiles as a utilityman who fits best at second base.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): With Shane Baz returning to the injured list due to an ominous elbow sprain, Perez is the last truly elite pitching prospect (Baz, Daniel Espino, and Grayson Rodriguez) left standing. The Marlins are carefully managing his workload – both by holding him to around 20 batters faced per appearance while using him every seven or eight days. He’s carved through Double-A competition and could probably more than hold his own in the Majors. He’s only 19 years and three months old, so Miami is taking the long view with his development.

Jordan Walker, Cardinals (20): Walker has yet to appear in this column for two simple reasons. His performance hasn’t merited effusive praise or words of caution. As one of the youngest players in Double-A, he’s batting .302/.392/.476 with seven home runs and 15 steals while demonstrating good strike zone judgment and a batted ball approach based around liners and ground balls. His light-tower power is handicapped by hitting too many grounders. It’s not a death blow to his presumed future as a top slugger. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are among the notable power hitters who skew to low-angle contact.

Mick Abel, Phillies (20): With the usual caveats about injury, Abel will be one of the most-hyped pitching prospects this time next year. He’s performed well though not exceptionally at High-A this season, producing a 4.23 ERA with 10.50 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9. Recently, he’s struggled with both home runs and walks. The Phillies have allowed him to pitch surprisingly deep into his starts. He often faces 24 or more batters, which is more than the average big leaguer. This workload has been mitigated with extra rest between starts.

Brayan Rocchio, Guardians (21): Since a four-hit, two-homer game at the end of June, Rocchio is batting .452/.500/.833 over his last 46 plate appearances. In his second stint at Double-A, he’s noticeably improved upon his walk and strikeout rates. He’s beginning to track as a shortstop whose defensive and offensive prowess will remind Guardians fans of Francisco Lindor. Including last season, he now has 506 plate appearances at Double-A. A promotion to Triple-A is almost certainly imminent.

Phillies Reinstate Connor Brogdon, JoJo Romero; Will Toffey Outrighted

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The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve reinstated righty Connor Brogdon from the Covid-related injured list and lefty JoJo Romero from the 60-day injured list. That necessitated a pair of 40-man moves. Infielder Will Toffey outright to Triple-A Lehigh Valley after clearing waivers, while righty Hans Crouse was recalled from Lehigh Valley and immediately placed on the Major League 60-day injured list. Lefty Cristopher Sanchez was optioned to Lehigh Valley to create additional space on the active roster.

Brogdon, 27, has been on the Covid list since late June but been one of the team’s better relievers when on the field. Through 17 2/3 innings this season, he’s notched a tidy 2.04 ERA with a sizable 28.8% strikeout rate against a much better-than-average 6.8% walk rate. Since making his debut with the Phils back in 2020, he’s totaled 86 1/3 frames with a 3.22 ERA, an average fastball of 95.9 mph and above-average strikeout and walk rates.

Romero, meanwhile, has yet to pitch in the Majors this season due to an elbow injury. The 25-year-old hasn’t had much MLB success to this point (7.32 ERA in 2020-21), but he only has 19 2/3 innings under his belt in the big leagues. Like Brogdon, Romero averages better than 95 mph with his heater. He just wrapped up a minor league rehab assignment that saw him post a 1.54 ERA and 15-to-2 K/BB ratio through 11 2/3 innings across four minor league levels, topping out with 3 2/3 scoreless frames in Triple-A.

Losing his spot on the 40-man roster is the 27-year-old Toffey, who didn’t appear in a game before being passed through waivers and sent back down. The journeyman infielder would’ve been making his MLB debut had he gotten into a game. A 2017 fourth-round pick by the A’s, Toffey is already in his fourth organization and has batted .266/.385/.438 in 192 plate appearances while playing primarily third base so far in Triple-A this season.

As for Crouse, he’s been on the minor league injured list since April due to tendinitis in his right biceps. Today’s move is quite beneficial for him, as he’ll now continue rehabbing that injury while being paid at the prorated Major League minimum and acquire Major League service time along the way. As Matt Gelb of The Athletic rightly points out, the Phillies have also done this with lefty Damon Jones and right-hander James McArthur. Most clubs shy away from going this route, but the Phils have opted to give service time and big league pay to a trio of pitchers rather than subtract elsewhere on the roster as the need for space arises.

Dodgers To Sign Hansel Robles

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The Dodgers have agreed to a deal with right-hander Hansel Robles, reports Mike Rodriguez of Univision (Twitter link). It’s a minor league contract, tweets Juan Toribio of MLB.com. Robles was released by the Red Sox earlier this week.

Robles, 32 next month, has long been a tantalizing late-inning arm who’s been prone to inconsistent performance despite possessing impressive raw stuff. The right-hander averaged 96.2 mph on his heater with the Red Sox this season, which ranks in the top 15 percent of MLB hurlers, and has fanned more than a quarter of his opponents in 427 1/3 innings scattered across parts of eight big league seasons. However, Robles logged a career-low 18.9% strikeout rate this year against a career-high 12.6% walk rate, and the resulting 5.84 ERA through 24 2/3 innings prompted the Sox to eventually move on.

Walks have always been an issue for Robles (career 10.2%), but at his best he’s shown the ability to miss bats in bunches, thanks to that power fastball and a pair of secondary offerings in his changeup and slider. The changeup has long rated  as the better of the two pitches, per FanGraphs’ run values, and that’s all the more true in recent seasons. Opponents slugged .594 against Robles’ slider this season, ripping a pair of doubles and three home runs off the pitch.

The Dodgers’ bullpen isn’t at full strength right now, so it’s only natural that they’d be intrigued by a veteran power arm who has, at times, looked like a very capable late-inning reliever. Blake Treinen has been shelved for the past three months due to shoulder troubles, while Daniel Hudson — who’d been one of the team’s best setup options — suffered an unfortunate ACL tear when fielding a grounder last month. Flamethrowing sinker specialist Brusdar Graterol hit the injured list just yesterday due to a shoulder issue, and the team has yet to announce the results of today’s followup imaging. Right-hander Tommy Kahnle has been out since May due to a bone bruise in his right elbow.

Robles is far from the first veteran pickup whom the Dodgers have opted to stockpile in the minors. They’ve also added righties Pedro Baez and Dellin Betances, although Betances has struggled in Triple-A, while Baez is only just building back up with the Dodgers’ Rookie-level club after a shutdown period. He’s thrown three scoreless innings but is presumably not an option in the very near term.

Robles seems likely to join Betances in Oklahoma City, and if he can get on track in a hurry, there could be a bullpen opportunity before long — particularly if Graterol is to miss an extended period of time. The Dodgers will, of course, be active in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline, so it’s certainly possible — if not likely — that they’ll add some more established help to an injury-depleted relief corps in the next 18 days.

Tigers Designate Drew Carlton For Assignment

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The Tigers announced Friday that right-hander Jose Cisnero has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list and that fellow righty Drew Carlton has been designated for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster.

Carlton, 26, was Detroit’s 32nd-round pick back in 2017 and made his big league debut with them last season. He’s tossed a total of 12 1/3 innings in the Majors from 2021-22, logging a strong 2.92 ERA but a less impressive 8-to-4 K/BB ratio. Far more concerning, however, are Carlton’s struggles in Triple-A Toledo this season. The Florida State product has been hammered for a 6.91 ERA with the MudHens, yielding 33 hits — five of them home runs — and six walks in 27 1/3 innings.

Prior to this season, Carlton had a strong showing in his first run through Triple-A, working to a 2.92 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate and a 4.8% walk rate in 52 1/3 frames. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher whose fastball has averaged 90.6 mph in his limited big league time. Carlton can be optioned this year and for two more beyond the current campaign. The Tigers will have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.

Cisnero, meanwhile, will rejoin the Tigers’ bullpen and look to build on a strong 2019-21, when he logged a 3.69 ERA with a 24.7% strikeout rate and 10.9% walk rate in 126 2/3 frames. Cisnero has averaged 96.6 mph on his fastball over that stretch and gone from an indie-ball reclamation project who’d been out of affiliated ball for five years to a valuable member of Detroit’s late-inning relief corps. He’s already 33 years old and will be a free agent after the 2023 season, so if he impresses in his first few outings after activation, it’s at least plausible that he could join several of his bullpen-mates as names of interest on the summer trade market. If not, he’ll give the Tigers a veteran arm to plug into the bullpen for the season’s second half and for the 2023 campaign.

Rangers, Martin Perez Have Mutual Interest In Extension

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Martin Perez emphatically told reporters late last month that he hoped to stay with the Rangers long-term (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News), and general manager Chris Young told Grant and others yesterday that the team is indeed open to the possibility of signing the veteran lefty to an extension (Twitter link).

Perez, who returned for a second stint with the Rangers on a one-year, $4MM deal over the winter, appears to be in the midst of the breakout season so many thought possible during his minor league days, when he was regarded as one of the top 30 prospects in all of baseball. It’s coming well later than anyone expected, at 31 years of age, but Perez has pitched to a brilliant 2.68 ERA with a career-high 20.7% strikeout rate, a career-low 6.6% walk rate and a 51.9% ground-ball rate that represents his highest mark since 2016.

Now an 11-year Major League veteran, Perez is throwing fewer four-seam fastballs than at any point in his career (6.6%) and has ramped up the usage of his sinker (37%) and changeup (27.7%) in its place. That changeup usage rate is a career-high, and his sinker usage is at its highest point since 2018. He’s also tamped down the use of the cutter he added with the Twins in 2019 but is still using it frequently as a third offering. His curveball, like his four-seamer, only makes a handful of appearances per start (5.1%). Perez has experimented with many pitch mixes throughout his career, but this is the most aggressively he’s ever leaned on the sinker/cutter/changeup trio, and the results are impressive.

The extent to which the Rangers are willing to spend to keep Perez beyond the current season isn’t yet known, but Perez made his feelings crystal clear in that late June interview, telling the Texas beat: “I want to be here and stay here, 100 percent. No — make it 300 percent.”

As things currently stand, righties Jon Gray and Dane Dunning are the only locks for the rotation beyond the current season. Texas is hopeful that touted prospects Jack Leiter and Cole Winn will emerge as high-end options sooner than later, but both have struggled considerably in the minors this season (Leiter in Double-A, Winn in Triple-A). Even if that pair were to right the ship and break through to the big leagues sometime in 2023, there’d still be room for a solid veteran of Perez’s caliber — and that’s obviously a best-case scenario that’s far from certain, given the volatility of pitching prospects.

Whether it’s a Perez extension or a trade that brings some controllable talent to Globe Life Field, Young expressed yesterday that the Rangers may not wait until the offseason to help solidify the 2023 rotation (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Levi Weaver). “I think that as we are building this and evaluating where we currently sit in the standings, and where we want to be this time next year, finding pieces both for the short term and potential fits beyond 2022 is how we’re approaching it,” Young said of the Rangers’ approach to the trade deadline.

The Rangers are currently five games below .500 at 41-46, which takes them completely out of the running in the American League West, where they trail the Astros by a massive 16.5-game deficit. They’re only four and a half back in the race for the American League’s third Wild Card spot, however, and Texas has played considerably better since a terrible start to the season. Following a 2-9 start to the season, they’ve gone 39-37 with a +25 run differential in that span.

Outrights: Leon, Vieaux, Kelly

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We’ll kick Friday morning off with a trio of outright assignments…

  • Veteran catcher Sandy Leon cleared waivers after being designated for assignment by the Guardians and has been sent outright to Triple-A Columbus, per the league’s transactions page. The team did not formally announce the move, and Leon had the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency. However, he was back in the lineup with Columbus last night, so he’s clearly accepted the assignment and will remain in Triple-A for the time being (without occupying a spot on the 40-man roster). The 33-year-old switch-hitter batted .133/.381/.133 in a tiny sample of 21 plate appearances with Cleveland in his second big league stint with the organization in the past three years. He’ll remain on hand as a veteran depth option with a strong reputation for defense and receiving but just a .211/.279/.317 batting line in parts of 11 MLB seasons.
  • The Pirates announced that left-hander Cam Vieaux went unclaimed on waivers. He’s been sent outright to Triple-A Indianapolis and will remain in the organization without requiring a spot on the 40-man roster. Vieaux’s stint with the major league club was fairly brief. Selected to the majors in mid-June, the 28-year-old made five appearances over the next couple weeks. Vieaux began his big league career with three scoreless outings, but he retired only one of three batters faced on June 29. Two days later, he was called upon for mop-up work against the Brewers. Milwaukee sent 13 batters to the plate in one inning against him, plating eight runs on six hits and three walks before he made it out of the inning after a staggering 56 pitches. Pittsburgh optioned Vieaux a few days later and, after two more minor league appearances, designated him for assignment. Now that he’s cleared waivers, he’ll head back to Indianapolis in hopes of building on his 2.12 ERA through 29 2/3 innings and, more importantly, earning his way back to the big leagues.
  • Right-hander Michael Kelly cleared outright waivers and was assigned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, per an announcement from the Phillies. The 29-year-old made his big league debut with the Phils in mid-June and has pitched four innings of one-run ball across a pair of stints with the team. However, he’s also been hit hard in Triple-A, where he’s toting a 7.33 ERA through 23 1/3 innings on the season. To his credit, Kelly has punched out 30.8% of his Triple-A opponents this season, and that bloated ERA is at least partially due to a sky-high .439 average on balls in play against him. That said, the former No. 48 overall pick (Padres, 2011) has also walked far too many hitters (11.2%) — a trait that has plagued him throughout parts of five seasons in Triple-A, where he has an 11.7% walk rate through 170 2/3 innings.

Marlins To Promote Max Meyer

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The Marlins are set to promote top pitching prospect Max Meyer, the team announced on Twitter (with video of him learning the news). Craig Mish of SportsGrid reports (Twitter link) that Meyer will start on Saturday against the Phillies.

It’ll be the major league debut for the right-hander, who flew through the minors. Miami selected Meyer with the third overall pick in the 2020 draft. The University of Minnesota product was the first pitcher off the board, and he’s excelled over his first two years in pro ball. There was no minor league season during his draft year because of the pandemic, and the Fish aggressively assigned Meyer to Double-A Pensacola for his first game action in 2021.

Meyer handled the assignment with aplomb, pitching to a 2.41 ERA through 20 starts. He punched out an above-average 27.2% of opponents while inducing ground-balls on more than half the batted balls he surrendered. Meyer’s walks were a touch high, but it was a promising showing for his first full pro season. He earned a late-season cameo at Triple-A Jacksonville and headed into last offseason as one of the sport’s better pitching prospects.

Entering the 2022 campaign, each of Baseball America, FanGraphs and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN slotted Meyer among the game’s top 100 overall prospects. He drew praise for a mid-upper 90s fastball and a slider that some evaluators considered the best single pitch in the 2020 draft class. The quality of his changeup was a bit more divisive, with FanGraphs and ESPN projecting it to average or better but BA considering it more of a fringy offering.

Meyer isn’t necessarily regarded as a future ace. BA and Keith Law of the Athletic (who slotted him fifth in the Miami system heading into the year) each noted that some evaluators point to his lack of pinpoint fastball command as a reason to project a potential bullpen future. That said, all four outlets suggested Meyer has the potential to be an above-average, mid-rotation or better arm if his command comes along. The Marlins will surely give him every opportunity to cement himself in the starting five over the coming seasons.

This year, the 23-year-old has continued to overpower upper minors hitters. He’s made 12 starts with the Jumbo Shrimp, tossing 58 innings of 3.72 ERA ball. He has a 28.4% strikeout percentage with a 50% grounder rate, and he’s cut his walk rate slightly from 9.6% in Double-A to 8.3% this season. Meyer spent a month on the injured list between mid-May and June, but he’s allowed two or fewer runs in each of his four starts since returning.

It remains to be seen whether Meyer will hold a rotation spot for good now that he’s headed to the big leagues, but there should be an opportunity if the club feels he’s ready for consistent run against MLB hitters. Miami’s top three is set in stone. Sandy Alcantara is performing at a Cy Young level, and Pablo López is having another excellent year. Trevor Rogers has had a disappointing first half, but he’s certainly not in danger of losing a rotation spot after an All-Star 2021 campaign.

The final two spots have been more questionable, in part due to injury. Elieser Hernández and Jesús Luzardo opened the year fourth and fifth on the depth chart. Hernández had a dreadful first few months and was eventually optioned to Jacksonville. He’s since been recalled but has worked in long relief. Luzardo, meanwhile, hit the injured list in May with a forearm strain and has yet to return to the big leagues. Sixto Sánchez hasn’t pitched all season, while Cody Poteet and Edward Cabrera have been on the IL for a while.

Former first-rounder Braxton Garrett has pitched well through seven starts since replacing Hernández in the rotation last month. Daniel Castano has stepped into the #5 role and held his own, working to a 4.35 ERA over six starts. He’s only striking out around 13% of hitters, though, so Meyer will certainly be a more high-octane option. Castano still has an option year remaining, and he can head back to Jacksonville or work out of the major league bullpen as needed.

The upcoming series is critical for the Marlins, who sit at 43-45. They’re three games back in the Wild Card standings. The Phils are one of two teams between them and the Cardinals, who currently hold the final playoff spot in the National League. The next two and a half weeks could shape how general manager Kim Ng and her staff approach the upcoming trade deadline, and they’ll turn to one of the sport’s most interesting young arms at this pivotal stage of the season.

Meyer is not on the 40-man roster, so the Marlins will have to formally select his contract on Saturday. Miami’s 40-man roster is full, but they can clear a roster spot by transferring one of their injured pitchers from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list. Reliever Anthony Bender has already missed almost two months and just began a rehab assignment today, so transferring him would be little more than a formality.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Braves Targeting Mid-Late August Return For Ozzie Albies

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The Braves have been without Ozzie Albies for a month, as the star second baseman fractured his left foot on June 13. Atlanta immediately placed him on the 60-day injured list, and he underwent surgery a few days later. The club maintained they expected him to play again this season, but they didn’t provide an estimated return date beyond ruling him out for two-plus months.

It seems Atlanta’s hopeful Albies can return around when he’s first eligible. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos tells Jeff Schultz of the Athletic the club is “probably looking at mid- to late-August or worst case the beginning of September” for Albies’ return. The two-time All-Star has progressed to 75% weight bearing on the foot, according to the Atlanta president.

Second base has been a major problem for the Braves since Albies went down. Atlanta has gotten a meager .232/.287/.303 showing in 108 plate appearances at the position over the past month. The bulk of that time has gone to utilityman Orlando Arcia, with Phil Gosselin (who has since been designated for assignment) also chipping in. Arcia’s and Gosselin’s struggles reached the point the Braves swung a deal for Robinson Canó and added the veteran to the major league roster on Monday.

Adding Canó shouldn’t prevent Anthopoulos from seeking further upgrades at the position. The veteran had been hitting well in Triple-A but struggled enough with both the Mets and Padres in the big leagues he was released from both clubs. Atlanta’s acquisition cost for Canó was marginal — they sent cash considerations to San Diego in return — and the Braves figure to be willing to move on quickly if he struggles again. However, the possibility of welcoming Albies back four-to-six weeks from now could diminish the urgency to add infield talent closer to the deadline.

That’s particularly true given how thin this summer’s infield trade market appears to be. Of MLBTR’s top 50 trade candidates, only three (Brandon Drury, Whit Merrifield and Donovan Solano) are capable of playing second base. Players like César Hernández and Tony Kemp would be available stopgap options but didn’t make MLBTR’s list amidst arguably career-worst years.

Asked generally about the possibility of upgrading before the deadline, Anthopoulos suggested the club had yet to narrow down specific target areas. He expressed confidence in the club’s overall depth and told Schultz they’re prepared to cast a wider net than last season, when the front office responded to Ronald Acuña Jr.’s season-ending injury by striking two weeks early to acquire Joc Pederson from the Cubs. “It’s very different than last year. We’ve had injuries this year, but we have a lot of depth,” Anthopoulos told Schultz. “I would say right now it’s critical to watch the team and obviously our health. It might be one of those things where we don’t have a true glaring area, but we definitely have areas where we can improve. Because once the deadline (passes), we can’t add. But we’re not there yet. We haven’t made any decisions.”

The Braves are also expecting a return from reliever Kirby Yates a few weeks down the line. The 2019 All-Star has barely pitched over the past two and a half seasons. He missed most of the shortened 2020 campaign battling elbow issues, then underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2021 that wiped out all of last year. The right-hander signed a two-year deal over the winter with an eye on a midseason comeback, and a return to the big leagues is getting closer into view.

Yates is set to begin a rehab assignment at the club’s Florida complex on Saturday, tweets Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Pitchers are typically allowed up to 30 days on rehab stints, but that window can be (and often is) extended for players working back from TJS. Anthopoulos told Schultz that Yates’ progress over the next couple weeks could factor into whether they feel a need to add another right-hander to the bullpen via trade. During his last healthy season, Yates tossed 60 2/3 innings of 1.19 ERA ball for the 2019 Padres, leading the majors with 41 saves.

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