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Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Search

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The Phillies are looking to add a front-of-the-rotation type of arm, with The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter links) writing that the Phils want “a starter who can start a playoff game.”  To this end, the club has been linked to such arms as the Reds’ Tyler Mahle, the Angels’ Noah Syndergaard, and the Pirates’ Jose Quintana — three of the most prominent starting pitchers remaining on the trade market.

Mahle is controlled through the 2023 season, while Syndergaard and Quintana would be pure rentals as players who are scheduled for free agency this winter.  As such, Mahle would surely cost the most in a trade, and Syndergaard carries a bit of a financial hit, with roughly $7.2MM still owed to him over the remainder of the season.  By contrast, Quintana is owed only around $675K for the rest of 2022, but Quintana also has a shaky track record over the last few seasons before righting himself this year in Pittsburgh.

Dave Dombrowski, Philadelphia’s president of baseball operations, suggested earlier this week that his team was hoping to bolster the rotation, but the Phils were also hesitant about dealing any of their top prospects.  Stark backs up that assertion, noting that the Phillies haven’t been willing to move any of Mick Abel, Andrew Painter or Logan O’Hoppe (the Phils’ consensus top-three prospects in the view of Baseball America and MLB Pipeline), or right-handed pitching propects Griff McGarry or Ben Brown.  BA ranks McGarry fourth and Brown seventh in their ranking of Phillies prospects, while Pipeline is a little less bullish, ranking McGarry eighth and Brown 26th.

Since the Phillies’ system isn’t considered to be too deep overall, it isn’t any surprise that the front office isn’t keen on parting ways with any of the relatively few premium names on hand in the minors.  However, as Stark observes, the Phils will find it difficult to obtain higher-tier pitching unless they’re open to trading prospects.  Given the amount of interest Mahle has received from around the league, and given what the Reds just obtained from the Mariners in the Luis Castillo deal, it would seem almost impossible for the Phillies to land Mahle without at least one of the blue-chip prospects.

Syndergaard and Quintana would come at a lower price tag as rental players, but Stark notes that Dombrowski also prefers controllable starters.  This was Philadelphia’s strategy in landing Kyle Gibson from the Rangers at last year’s deadline, and landing a starter who is controlled through at least 2023 would give the Phillies some cover since Gibson and Zach Eflin could both be free agents this winter.

The rotation seems to be Philadelphia’s top priority at this point, as Stark says that the Phillies aren’t focused on any bullpen moves for the moment.  This is a little surprising given the Phils’ longstanding needs in the relief corps, but it could be that Dombrowski is first exploring his options with the starter market before turning to the (relatively) easier route of adding relievers.  Also, virtually every contender in baseball is looking for relievers right now, so Dombrowski could be opting to make some late strikes after the first wave or two of bullpen trades have been made.

Big Hype Prospects: Meyer, Pratto, Ruiz, Greene, Cowser

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This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll check in with a few recent and upcoming promotees along with a smattering of others.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Max Meyer, 23, SP, Marlins
AAA: 58 IP, 10.09 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 3.72 ERA

Meyer is poised for his first taste of the Majors on Saturday, just ahead of the All-Star Break. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored at the time his promotion was announced, the northpaw has made short work of minor league opponents at all stops. His ascent has not been without caveat. Some commentators worry about his ability to hold down a rotation role in the Majors for three reasons. The first is easiest to dismiss as unnecessary fretting. At 6’0’’, Meyer is slightly undersized which can presage an inability to tolerate 180-inning workloads. That said, there are plenty of “short” pitchers in baseball history, most notably Pedro Martinez.

The second and third issues are a bit more worrisome. They tie together, too. Meyer’s fastball command isn’t as sharp as his walk rates suggest. He’s gotten away with using it in the zone in the minors, but he could run into some trouble in the Majors. He relies almost exclusively on his fastball and an elite slider, a combination which often portends a future in the bullpen. That said, lower caliber pitchers like Brad Keller and Brady Singer have managed mid-rotation quality results with the same repertoire. We’ve also seen a few others like Spencer Strider thrive this season while using a different two-pitch repertoire.

Nick Pratto, 23, 1B, Royals
AAA: 337 PA, 17 HR, 8 SB, .240/.373/.484

Like many of his power-hitting Major League colleagues, Pratto got off to a slow start this season before eventually finding his stride. The Royals have promoted him for a series in Toronto in which they’ve infamously left 10 players south of the Canadian border. As such, his debut might be short-lived.

Pratto is a classic patient, left-handed slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber. Like the upcoming Home Run Derby participant, Pratto runs a mid-teens walk rate while striking out in around 30 percent of plate appearances. He makes up for so little contact by punishing those with which he does connect. Nearly half of his batted balls are flies and over 20 percent of those leave the yard. Per a home run calculator I’ve developed, Pratto projects for 33 home runs per 600 plate appearances. While he’s shown a willingness to run, he has below average speed. Like Schwarber, Pratto will probably be a volatile performer whose carrying trait is slugging.

Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, Padres
AA: 232 PA, 9 HR, 37 SB, .344/.474/.611
AAA: 142 PA, 4 HR, 23 SB, .315/.457/.477

Ruiz draws his hype from our friends in the fantasy baseball realm where his combination of power and speed could make him one of the most celebrated players in the game. From a real-world perspective, there are a lot of things that could go wrong. Starting on defense, he only has about a year of experience as an outfielder. His routes can be inconsistent or even circuitous. Fortunately, he has enough speed to recover while he learns the position. Speed doesn’t guarantee eventual mastery as an outfield defender. Roman Quinn is similarly fleet and still takes baffling routes to the ball at times.

Scouts also worry about his hit tool. Prior to this season, Ruiz had consistently below-average plate discipline. He struggled with swinging strikes, strikeouts, and consistency of contact. Notably, he’s produced 13.9 percent walk and 17.4 percent strikeout rates this season across two levels. His swinging-strike rate has also improved. Perhaps a more selective approach has yielded better contact results (I’m still awaiting comment from my sources). Regardless, speed is his carrying trait. Nabbing 60 bases (69 attempts) in 374 plate appearances is seriously impressive work.
I’m reminded of Michael A. Taylor, an outfielder who, at his peak, occasionally hit for power, often stole bases, but never quite made enough contact to stick as a regular. He’s carved out a nice career based on gold glove caliber center field defense. As noted above, Ruiz will need to improve considerably to match Taylor on defense. The raw tools are there.

Riley Greene, 21, OF, Tigers
MLB: 109 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .255/.358/.340

Greene’s prospect eligibility will soon expire. His first taste of the Majors has yielded mixed results. On the one hand, he’s effectively working counts. His 21.1 percent strikeout and 7.9 percent swinging-strike rates exceed even the wildest hopes for his early-career performance. The swinging-strike rate, in particular, is a marked divergence from expectations.

On the other hand, Greene is supposed to be a power hitter. With just one home run, three doubles, and a triple to his name, he’s been one of the most punchless batters since his debut in mid-June. Only 19 players have a lower ISO over that span – mostly names like Geraldo Perdomo, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan.

Better times likely await ahead. Greene is making consistent hard and barreled contact. It’s also encouraging to see him make adjustments. He’ll need to continue to do so to correct for the biggest flaw in his profile – an over-50 percent ground ball rate. While he’s currently using a shift-proof all-fields approach, he’s the kind of hitter who could benefit from a more pull-centric profile.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, Orioles
High-A: 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
AA: 53 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .308/.491/.615

In a crowded Orioles system, a lot of attention is paid to Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall. However, Cowser is also a Top 50-caliber prospect who is quickly working his way towards a big league debut in early 2023. With a patient approach, good rate of contact, and a swing geared for high BABIPs, Cowser profiles as a top-of-the-lineup force. He produces premium line-drive rates while using an all-fields approach. A left-handed hitter, he won’t be as penalized by the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his right-handed hitting teammates. Yet, since he hits to all fields, he’ll still use the spacious left field pasture to splash doubles.

If Cowser has a shortcoming, it’s that he doesn’t consistently get to in-game power. As mentioned, his swing skews to low-angle contact. He produces plenty of well-hit balls, but his game is mostly geared around reaching base. In today’s MLB, you never know when a player will make an adjustment that unlocks another gear, but it’s not strictly necessary in Cowser’s case. The Orioles have plenty of mid-lineup bats penciled into their future lineups. However, they could use a leadoff hitter who works counts and jumps on mistakes in the zone.

Five More

Michael Massey, Royals (24 years old): Another temporary beneficiary of the Royals’ roster triage, Massey isn’t technically a hyped prospect. However, my best scouting resource has been talking him up for a full year as a future regular. While it isn’t the most exciting profile, he skews to line drive and “fliner” contact which helps him to run high BABIPs while also regularly hitting for extra bases. The elevated BABIP will be necessary if he’s to be an above average hitter – his plate discipline and contact skills are slightly below average. Defensively, he profiles as a utilityman who fits best at second base.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): With Shane Baz returning to the injured list due to an ominous elbow sprain, Perez is the last truly elite pitching prospect (Baz, Daniel Espino, and Grayson Rodriguez) left standing. The Marlins are carefully managing his workload – both by holding him to around 20 batters faced per appearance while using him every seven or eight days. He’s carved through Double-A competition and could probably more than hold his own in the Majors. He’s only 19 years and three months old, so Miami is taking the long view with his development.

Jordan Walker, Cardinals (20): Walker has yet to appear in this column for two simple reasons. His performance hasn’t merited effusive praise or words of caution. As one of the youngest players in Double-A, he’s batting .302/.392/.476 with seven home runs and 15 steals while demonstrating good strike zone judgment and a batted ball approach based around liners and ground balls. His light-tower power is handicapped by hitting too many grounders. It’s not a death blow to his presumed future as a top slugger. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are among the notable power hitters who skew to low-angle contact.

Mick Abel, Phillies (20): With the usual caveats about injury, Abel will be one of the most-hyped pitching prospects this time next year. He’s performed well though not exceptionally at High-A this season, producing a 4.23 ERA with 10.50 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9. Recently, he’s struggled with both home runs and walks. The Phillies have allowed him to pitch surprisingly deep into his starts. He often faces 24 or more batters, which is more than the average big leaguer. This workload has been mitigated with extra rest between starts.

Brayan Rocchio, Guardians (21): Since a four-hit, two-homer game at the end of June, Rocchio is batting .452/.500/.833 over his last 46 plate appearances. In his second stint at Double-A, he’s noticeably improved upon his walk and strikeout rates. He’s beginning to track as a shortstop whose defensive and offensive prowess will remind Guardians fans of Francisco Lindor. Including last season, he now has 506 plate appearances at Double-A. A promotion to Triple-A is almost certainly imminent.

Phillies Interested In Matt Chapman

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The Phillies have shown interest in A’s third baseman Matt Chapman, but unsurprisingly, the Athletics have put a big price tag on the Gold Glover.  In exchange for Chapman, Oakland is asking for one of the Phillies’ top prospects as the centerpiece of a trade package, Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports, with such names as shortstop Bryson Stott or right-handers Mick Abel and Andrew Painter mentioned as the caliber of prospect the Athletics would have in mind.

Since Philadelphia’s farm system is short on premium talent, naturally the “Phillies have been reluctant to” part with any of their best youngsters in a Chapman deal, Coffey writes.  President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has a long history of trading quality minor league talent for proven big leaguers, however, and it is possible that giving up another blue-chip prospect would simply be the necessary cost to pry Chapman away from the A’s.

While the Athletics’ payroll-cutting endeavors have already begun with tonight’s Chris Bassitt trade with the Mets (a Phillies NL East rival, no less), Billy Beane’s front office isn’t going to move Chapman for pure salary-dump purposes.  At his best, Chapman has shown he is one of the game’s best all-around players, combining consistently superb third base defense with some big offensive numbers, particularly in 2018 and 2019.  Over the last two years, however, Chapman’s average and OBP totals have dropped off, while his strikeouts have ballooned — Chapman’s 33.1% strikeout rate is the third-highest of any qualified hitter in baseball since the start of the 2020 season.

The Phillies and other trade suitors (the Yankees and Mariners have been linked to Chapman earlier this winter) could use this downturn to try and negotiate a lesser trade return for the third baseman, yet that tactic might not work given the amount of interest in his services.  Chapman is projected for a $9.5MM salary in 2022 and also has another arbitration year remaining in 2023, with that extra control only adding to the Athletics’ high asking price.

Alec Bohm (himself a former top prospect) is penciled into Philadelphia’s third base role for Opening Day, though Bohm’s defensive struggles have already led to speculation that a position change could be in his future.  Bohm’s lack of production at the plate in 2021 also didn’t help his cause, even if countless players have dealt with the so-called sophomore slump.  Theoretically, the Phillies could acquire Chapman and then move Bohm across the diamond into a first base/DH split with Rhys Hoskins, though such a move would then lock up the Phils’ DH spot.

Stott is also a factor in the team’s infield plans, as the 14th overall pick of the 2019 draft has been viewed as a candidate to both make his MLB debut in 2022, and also immediately step into a regular role.  This could be as a shortstop if Didi Gregorius is traded, perhaps at second base if the Phillies opted to instead deal Jean Segura, or maybe even at the hot corner, if the Phillies decide to switch Bohm’s position even without acquiring a proven veteran like Chapman.  While the Phillies surely also prize Abel and Painter, it would seem on paper that Stott might be the most untouchable of the trio, given Stott’s importance to Philadelphia’s infield plans.

Phillies Looking At Fourth Starters, Bullpen Upgrades

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The Phillies may not have played as well as they’d hoped after an active first offseason under new front office leaders Dave Dombrowski and Sam Fuld, but they’re still a game over .500 and only three back from the lead in a division no one has run away with just yet. Given the context of their division and Dombrowski’s reputation as an aggressive, “win-now” type of executive, it should come as little surprise that he plainly indicated this week that he has no plans to trade away veteran pieces in the week-plus leading up to the July 30 trade deadline.

“We are contending,” Dombrowski told NBC Sports Philadelphia’s John Clark on his podcast this week. “…We’re not selling. We’re not in a position where we’re looking to move players off our team.”

Dombrowski declined to tip his hand as to specific areas he could upgrade, though he did note that the bullpen has again been inconsistent and that the team’s defense “is not our strength.” The first-year Phillies president of baseball ops also pushed back on the narrative that his team doesn’t have the prospects to make substantial upgrades. Dombrowski suggested that 2020 first-rounder Mick Abel isn’t likely to be moved but generally sounded open-minded about making moves to improve his club. Phillies fans, in particular, will want to give the entire interview a listen.

While Dombrowski would only vaguely indicate that the club can “get better in a couple areas,” Jayson Stark and Matt Gelb of The Athletic report that the team is targeting fourth and fifth starters to round out the rotation, as well as back-end relievers who can help shore up the team’s late-inning relief corps.

That meshes with Dombrowski’s assessment of the rotation in his interview with Clark. The former Expos, Marlins, Tigers and Red Sox baseball ops head lauded Zack Wheeler’s work and noted that when Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin are all pitching up to their capabilities, “you can beat anybody” in a short playoff series. Dombrowski also repeatedly praised lefty Ranger Suarez, who has recently emerged as a ninth-inning option and generally been effective since joining the club in early May. Suarez carries a 1.22 ERA, a 27.3 percent strikeout rate, and 8.4 percent walk rate and a 65.2 percent ground-ball rate in 37 innings.

One option of particular intrigue for Phillies fans could be former Philadelphia ace Cole Hamels. The free-agent lefty held a showcase for MLB teams last week, and Dombrowski confirmed to Clark that the Phillies attended the workout and threw the ball well. While candidly acknowledging interest in the lefty, however, Dombrowski also noted that he could be 30-plus days away from joining a big league rotation, as Hamels needs to go through the equivalent of a Spring Training buildup. That doesn’t provide the Phils or anyone else immediate help — and that’s something the Phillies could use with Eflin on the injured list at the moment.

With regard to specific trade targets, Dombrowski appears to still be casting a wide net and gauging asking prices throughout the league. Stark and Gelb write that the Phils have checked on “every closer who could be available” but aren’t limiting their search to current closers. The Phillies, like every other team, are cognizant of the fact that the next week could determine whether a few clubs operate as buyers or make some veterans available.

Dombrowski spoke about that tenuous balance with Clark, noting that it’d take something catastrophic (e.g. a 10-game losing streak) for the Phillies to sell. On the flip side, however, as a team looking to buy, that fine line being walked by so many other clubs could lead to players becoming available just before the deadline. “All of a sudden, [another team] loses three in a row, and somebody may be available that you weren’t anticipating to be available,” Dombrowski said to Clark.

There’s an argument that the Phillies (and other buyers) should simply act now rather than take the wait-and-see approach that is so prevalent throughout the game at the moment. But every front office is at the mercy of how much ownership will spend, and investing immediate resources only to find that a more desirable target is available a couple of days down the road is a risk when payroll isn’t unlimited.

Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez has the Phillies about $4.2MM from the $210MM luxury threshold. Stark, however, reports that the feeling among other clubs who’ve spoken with the Phillies about potential trades is that they’d be willing to cross that barrier for the first time in franchise history. That doesn’t mean Phils fans should assume there’s no limit to what Dombrowski can spend on outside acquisitions, but it’s a critical piece of context to consider as the deadline looms.

Looking around the league, there are plenty of fourth starter types available. Minnesota’s Michael Pineda, Colorado’s Jon Gray, Pittsburgh’s Tyler Anderson and Chicago’s Zach Davies are among the names available. There’s no need for the Phils to limit themselves to rental starters, either; Andrew McCutchen, Odubel Herrera, Archie Bradley, Chase Anderson, Matt Moore, Brad Miller, Vince Velasquez, Hector Neris, Brandon Kintzler and Matt Joyce are all coming off the roster at season’s end. The Phils still have $134MM committed to their 2022 books even with that large group of pending free agents, but this is a team that opened the 2021 season with a $197MM payroll and is now willing to add to it. Merrill Kelly, Matthew Boyd and Kyle Gibson are among the names available who could be moved even though they’re controlled through the 2022 season.

Phillies Sign First-Rounder Mick Abel

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The Phillies have signed their first-round pick, right-hander Mick Abel, Jim Callis of MLB.com tweets. As the 15th overall pick, Abel’s selection came with a recommended slot value of $3,885,800, but he’ll earn $4,075,000, according to Callis.

Abel played high school baseball in his native Oregon and committed to Oregon State before the Phillies signed him. While the coronavirus led to the cancellation of what would have been his final high school season, Abel was nonetheless the top prep pitcher available in this year’s draft, writes Callis. The 6-foot-5 hurler offers a “terrific” combination of stuff and polish, per Callis, as well as a 93 to 98 mph fastball and a promising slider-changeup combo.

With Abel under wraps, the Phillies have now signed four members of their five-player draft class. Third-round shortstop Casey Martin hasn’t officially signed, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia notes, though the two sides did reportedly reach an agreement earlier this month.

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