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Phillies Reportedly Targeting Controllable Relievers

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The Phillies are known to be focused on bullpen help, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski admitting as much last month. Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports that the club is showing more willingness to pay a higher prospect cost in order to get more controllable arms.

As noted by Gelb, this is in contrast to the club’s recent bullpen pursuits. At last year’s deadline, the Phils acquired Carlos Estévez, a rental. This winter, their big addition was grabbing Jordan Romano on a one-year deal. They appear to be dreaming a bit bigger ahead of this year’s deadline. Gelb reports that they are expecting the Twins to sell and have their eyes on Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax.

The Twins aren’t surefire sellers just yet. At 45-47, they are only three games out of a playoff spot. However, the payroll appears to be tight, as they were limited to fairly modest moves in the winter. They signed Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe and Ty France to one-year deals worth a combined $10.25MM. With ownership exploring a sale of the franchise, the front office may not get much more wiggle room to add this summer.

Even if they fall back in the standings and move more clearly into seller mode, they wouldn’t have to trade Durán or Jax. Both pitchers can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons beyond the current campaign. Both could be key parts of the club’s bullpen plans next year and in 2027 as well.

Durán is making $4.125MM and Jax $2.365MM. Both players will be due raises for next year but should still be underpaid. Jax has been dominant throughout his career, with a 2.39 earned run average, 30.9% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 63.9% ground ball rate. Jax also has strong numbers, particularly dating back to the start of last year. Over the 2024 and 2025 seasons, he has a 2.77 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 49.6% ground ball rate.

Talented relievers who reach free agency can earn eight-figure salaries, so there’s lots of value here for the Twins. However, if they decide this isn’t their year, there would be an argument for making moves. Reliever performance can be volatile and injuries are quite common nowadays. Though holding Durán and Jax for the future would be understandable, it’s a path that does have some risk.

For the Phillies, acquiring one or both of those arms would bolster their bullpen for this year and potentially for the future as well. Romano is a free agent after this season, so it could proactively address next year’s bullpen and perhaps give the club one less thing to do in the winter.

But as mentioned, going this route would require the club to give up more notable prospect talent. Gelb suggests that Andrew Painter is still unavailable but the club might not have any other truly untouchable prospects.

Aidan Miller gets a specific mention in the piece as an attractive guy who could be moved. The 27th overall pick of the 2023 draft, Miller just turned 21 years old but is already performing well in Double-A. In 64 games at that level, he has just seven home runs but has a 14.1% walk rate and has stolen 31 bases while holding down the shortstop position.

That combination of skills makes him a consensus top 50 prospect in the sport. It’s rare for those kinds of players to be available but perhaps the Phils have the right amount of urgency. They have been in the playoffs a lot lately with a strong roster but without getting a ring. Many of their core players are now between 32 and 36 years old, so perhaps the club wants to strike before the aging curve slopes more steeply.

Gelb mentions that the Phils probably wouldn’t flip someone like Mick Abel for a rental but it doesn’t seem like he’s completely unavailable. He also mentions Aroon Escobar and Eduardo Tait as prospects who could be of note in the coming weeks. Hendry Mendez, Alex McFarlane and Jean Cabrera get mentioned as intriguing potential secondary pieces.

Gelb also floats Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians as a fit similar to Durán or Jax. Clase has been Cleveland’s closer for years now but the club is in a tight spot this season. They are a bit behind the Twins, currently at 43-48 and 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. Clase is making just $4.5MM this year, $6MM next year and then there are two $10MM club options with $2MM buyouts.

Clase hasn’t been quite as dominant this year. His 22.9% strikeout rate is a couple of ticks below his 24.6% career rate. His 45.8% ground ball rate is still above average but far off his 58.8% career rate. Regardless, he has still been quite good and there’s loads of value in his contract. The Guardians could certainly keep him around beyond this campaign, though if the Phils are dangling notable prospects, they will probably answer the phone.

Another consideration of the Phils is shaking up their outfield, according to Gelb, including trading from their major league outfield. Both Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler have been somewhat disappointing at times this year and it’s been previously reported that the club may want to make room for prospect Justin Crawford.

Crawford is slashing .339/.410/.444 in Triple-A this year, despite only having two home runs. He won’t keep a .417 batting average on balls in play forever but he has an 11% walk rate and his speed has helped him steal 28 bases and run down balls in center field. Kepler, meanwhile, is hitting .213/.307/.378 on the season. Marsh started slow but has been heating up and is now at .265/.341/.378 for the whole year. He’s also controlled for two more seasons after this one, while Kepler is signed to a one-year deal.

That means Kepler is probably viewed as more disposable by the Phils but Marsh is surely more capable of bringing back a return that could help elsewhere on the roster. Kepler is making $10MM but Marsh just $3MM. Marsh is also a somewhat-capable center fielder, which is a weak spot in the league-wide market. His defense isn’t strong up the middle but a team without better options might take a chance on him.

If the Phils think Crawford can immediately come up and hit major league pitching, there’s an argument to flipping someone and bringing him up, though it’s a risky plan. Even the best prospects in the world can struggle when first exposed to the big leagues, so it would certainly be a gamble.

It’s an interesting dynamic with the deadline approaching. Dombrowski has a gunslinger reputation and there are some signs that his trigger finger is getting itchy. On the other hand, the flip side of the Phils having a veteran-laden roster is that they will need young players to step up in the near future. Dealing prospects would cut into Philadelphia’s ability to organically shift from one era to another but perhaps they focused enough on the present to make a bold move.

Photo courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Imagn Images

Phillies Moving Taijuan Walker To Short Relief

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For the second time in as many months, the Phillies are pulling right-hander Taijuan Walker from their starting rotation. Paul Casella of MLB.com reported this morning that Walker’s being moved to the bullpen permanently in a move that will clear the way for right-hander Mick Abel to be promoted to the majors and fill in for Aaron Nola in the starting rotation. Matt Gelb of The Athletic added further context to that reporting, noting that Walker is specifically moving to a one-inning, setup role in order to help bolster the club’s late-inning mix. Meanwhile, Gelb notes that Abel will get at least two starts for the Phillies before Nola’s return, which the club currently expects to occur near the middle of June.

It’s a big change for Walker, who has just ten career relief appearances and has served exclusively as a long relief arm in those outings. Gelb notes that Walker has never pitched on back-to-back days before in his career, an adjustment that will surely take some getting used to for the right-hander. Still, it’s understandable for Philadelphia to want to try him in this new role given the state of their pitching staff. Abel is knocking on the door of the majors as a potential rotation option with top prospect Andrew Painter potentially not all that far behind, and the Phillies’ rotation is already full when healthy. Without much of a path to a long-term rotation role in the cards for Walker anyway, it makes sense for the club to try him in a new role.

Given that the Phillies recently lost Jose Alvarado to a PED suspension, saw Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez depart in free agency over the winter, and have watched Jordan Romano struggle badly this year after being signed to serve as the club’s closer, there’s perhaps no greater need on the roster than that for a high leverage relief arm to join Matt Strahm in supporting Romano. Walker will now be tasked with doing just that, and Gelb notes that he seemed intrigued by the idea after his last start.

“If I have one inning to blow it out, whatever it is, I feel like my stuff would play up just a little bit more,” Walker said last week, as relayed by Gelb. “Knowing that I got one inning, just let it eat.”

Walker’s departure from the rotation makes room for Abel to join the mix, at least temporarily. The right-hander made his big league debut earlier this season in a spot start and was extremely impressive, tossing six scoreless innings with nine strikeouts against zero walks. The Phillies were clearly intrigued by that dazzling performance, and now he’ll get to make at least a couple additional starts. Abel is set to join the club to start Thursday’s game against the Blue Jays, and Gelb notes that after that he’ll be in line to start against the Cubs next week. Those offenses are far more impressive than the Pirates lineup Abel dominated in his big league debut, so these next pair of outings will be a major test for the 23-year-old right-hander.

Phillies Place Aaron Nola On IL With Ankle Sprain

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The Phillies announced that they have placed right-hander Aaron Nola on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 15th, due to a sprained right ankle. Right-hander Daniel Robert has been recalled to take his roster spot. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com was among those to report that prospect Mick Abel will be promoted to make his major league debut but only to make a spot start on Sunday. After that, he will be optioned to Triple-A and Taijuan Walker will take Nola’s rotation spot. In other Philly news, manager Rob Thomson relayed that prospect Moisés Chace will undergo Tommy John surgery. Lochlahn March of the Philadelphia Inquirer was among those to pass that along.

Per March, Nola injured his ankle prior to his recent start in Cleveland. He went on to allow four earned runs in five innings in that game. His next start was even worse, as Nola allowed nine earned runs over 3 2/3 innings against the Cardinals on Wednesday.

Perhaps the ankle injury provides an explanation for those outings but Nola was also struggling before that, with a 4.61 earned run average over his first seven starts this year. Though for what it’s worth, he was building a bit of momentum. On April 27th, he pitched seven innings of one-run ball against the Cubs, then six scoreless against the Diamondbacks on May 3rd.

Whether it’s due to the ankle or not, Nola now has a 6.16 ERA on the year. His 23.6% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 44.6% ground ball rate are all decent numbers, but 11 home runs have pushed more runs across the plate. SIERA, which expects home run rate to normalize, has Nola at 3.66 this year. However, home runs have always been a part of Nola’s game, so that might not be the best metric in this specific instance. The Phillies haven’t provided an estimate for how long they expect Nola to be out but it seems he will miss at least a few turns.

Nola’s injury will allow Walker to return to the rotation. He started his season with six great starts, posting a 2.54 ERA in those. But when Ranger Suárez was ready to come off the IL, someone had to go. Walker got bumped to the bullpen as the Phils ran with a rotation of Suárez, Nola, Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo and Cristopher Sánchez. Walker made two relief appearances, each three innings long. The first was scoreless but he allowed three earned runs in the second one, which came in relief of Nola on Wednesday.

He’ll retake a rotation spot next week, but Abel will get to make his major league debut in the interim. A former first-round pick, Abel’s prospect stock has dropped a bit due to some inconsistent control. From 2021 to 2024, he tossed 375 minor league innings and struck out 26.9% of batters faced but he also gave out walks at a 13.3% clip, leading to a 4.75 ERA.

Despite the rough edges, the Phils added him to their 40-man roster in November, to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. The early results are encouraging this year. He has a 2.53 ERA through eight Triple-A starts, with a 26.6% strikeout rate and 49.2% ground ball rate. His 9.9% walk rate is still a bit higher than par but an improvement for him. He’ll get a chance to make a brief debut this weekend.

As for Chace, it’s obviously an unfortunate blow for him. Acquired from the Orioles in last summer’s Gregory Soto trade, Chace is one of the club’s top pitching prospects and a fringe top 100 guy. He wasn’t on every list but FanGraphs had him at #74 coming into the year, ESPN at #90 and Baseball Prospectus put him in their #101 slot.

Like Abel, Chace was given a 40-man spot in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He started this year at Double-A and could have worked his way to Triple-A or even the majors during the 2025 season. That will now be on pause for a long time, as he should be rehabbing until the summer of 2026. The Phils could recall him and place him on the major league 60-day injured list at some point if they so choose. Doing so would open a 40-man spot but would also require Chace to start earning big league pay and service time.

Photo courtesy of Bill Streicher, Imagn Images

Phillies Outright John McMillon

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The Phillies announced that they have selected right-handers Moisés Chace, Mick Abel and Jean Cabrera to their 40-man roster. Fellow righty John McMillon cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The 40-man roster count is now 39. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN had the Chace move on on X earlier today.

Chace, 22 in June, was an international signing of the Orioles who was flipped to the Phillies a few months ago when the O’s acquired left-hander Gregory Soto. Chace has posted some big strikeout numbers but also given out his fair share of walks during his time in the minors. He has logged 230 1/3 innings thus far with a 4.42 earned run average, 31.6% strikeout rate and 14.5% walk rate.

The control is clearly a work in progress but the Phillies are understandably intrigued by the punchouts. Baseball America currently lists him the #15 prospect in the club’s system, heaping praise on his fastball while noting that he also has a slider, sweeper and a changeup in his repertoire.

He hasn’t yet reached Triple-A and only has four starts at the Double-A level, so he likely won’t be an immediate option for their rotation. However, the Phils didn’t want to take the risk that some other club would try to stash him on their roster next year, so they will protect him from Rule 5 selection today. If he can better harness his arsenal, he will creep into the rotation picture in time.

Currently, the starting mix includes Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez and Taijuan Walker. Suarez only has one year of club control remaining, which will open one spot. Walker has two years left on his contract but he’s been bumped from the rotation before and the Phils could look into moving him. Wheeler has three years left until he’s slated for free agency. Chace and other prospects like Andrew Painter will look to position themselves to step into those openings when they arrive.

Abel will also be in that mix. He was Philadelphia’s first-round pick from 2020, getting selected 15th overall. Since then, he has posted big strikeout numbers but also given out plenty of walks. He has 375 minor league innings under his belt at this point with a 4.78 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate and 13.3% walk rate. BA still likes him enough to rank him 12th in the system but he’ll obviously need to rein in his stuff if he’s to unlock his potential.

Cabrera, 23, was an international signing out of Venezuela. He has thrown 287 minor league innings thus far with a 3.76 ERA, 25.4% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He will eventually be a part of the club’s rotation picture but is more of a long-term play. He has yet to reach Triple-A and has less than 30 innings at the Double-A level.

McMillon, 27 in January, was just claimed off waivers a couple of weeks ago. He has flashed some strikeout stuff but also poor control so far. In 130 2/3 innings in the minors, he has a 4.75 ERA, 35.3% strikeout rate but a 17.8% walk rate. Since this is his first career outright and he has less than three years of service time, he doesn’t have the right to elect free agency, therefore providing the Phils with some non-roster depth.

MLB Announces Futures Game Rosters

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Major League Baseball announced rosters for the 2023 Futures Game this evening. The contest — a seven-inning exhibition between some of the sport’s most talented minor leaguers — kicks off All-Star festivities in Seattle on Saturday, July 8.

As Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com notes, 28 of the 50 players on the roster are included on MLB Pipeline’s recent Top 100 prospects list. Six of Pipeline’s top ten will participate. The full rosters (MLB Pipeline prospect rank included, if applicable):

American League

National League

The Phillies’ Fifth Starter Possibilities

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The Phillies had a bit of shuffling in the middle of their rotation this offseason. Each of Zach Eflin, Noah Syndergaard and Kyle Gibson went elsewhere in free agency. Philadelphia partially backfilled the starting staff by bringing Taijuan Walker aboard, but they focused the rest of their offseason attention on installing Trea Turner atop the lineup and stockpiling bullpen help.

Philadelphia has one of baseball’s best one-two punch atop the rotation in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Walker steps into the third or fourth role, pairing with southpaw Ranger Suárez in the middle. Losing Eflin and Gibson thins out the depth at the back end, leaving the Phils to rely on someone without much starting experience at the big league level in the #5 role.

Turning to those possibilities:

Some MLB Rotation Work

Bailey Falter

Falter, a 25-year-old lefty, made 16 starts out of 20 outings for the Phils last year. That came on the heels of a rookie campaign in which he was used almost exclusively out of the bullpen and posted a 5.61 ERA. Falter had a better run prevention mark last season, allowing just 3.86 earned runs per nine innings. Falter struck out a roughly average 21.2% of opponents and kept his walks to a sparkling 4.9% clip last season. His ground-ball percentage dropped from 36.1% as a rookie to 31.7%, though, and he surrendered home runs at a higher than average rate (1.71 per nine innings).

The former fifth-round pick has shown excellent control throughout his time in the minor leagues. He missed bats on a decent 11% of his MLB offerings last season. His strikeout and walk profile fits fine at the back of a contending rotation, though his fly-ball oriented approach could give him trouble in a very hitter-friendly home park. Falter doesn’t throw hard and gives up a fair amount of hard contact. That’s been a particular issue with right-handed hitters, who have a .266/.313/.486 line against him in his MLB career.

Cristopher Sánchez

Sánchez, 26, only has four big league starts to his name. He’s come out of the bullpen 18 times at the MLB level and has logged 52 2/3 innings over the last two seasons. He owns a 5.47 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk marks (20.3% and 10.2%, respectively). On the plus side, he’s racked up grounders on a massive 56.4% of batted balls.

The 6’1″ hurler has spent the bulk of the last two years starting games for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. He struggled with walks en route to a 4.68 ERA there in 2021 but had a much more productive showing last season. Over 57 1/3 innings spanning 15 appearances, the Dominican-born southpaw posted a 3.14 ERA with a 24.4% strikeout percentage, 8.4% walk rate and eye-opening 62% grounder percentage. While Sánchez hasn’t had much MLB success to date, he’s in the back of the rotation and/or long relief mix thanks to his quality Triple-A showing.

Top Prospects

Andrew Painter

Arguably the top pitching prospect in the game, Painter ranks among the sport’s top 15 minor league talents at Baseball America, ESPN and The Athletic. Armed with an upper-90s fastball, the 6’7″ righty also draws praise from evaluators for a pair of impressive breaking pitches in his slider and curveball. His changeup is viewed as a little behind the rest of his power arsenal but a promising fourth pitch in its own right.

The 13th overall pick in the 2021 draft out of a Florida high school, he traversed three minor league levels last season. In a year split between Low-A, High-A and Double-A, he threw 103 2/3 innings of 1.56 ERA ball, striking out a laughable 38.7% of opponents with just a 6.2% walk rate.

It’s hard to draw up a better first full pro season. Still, Painter won’t turn 20 until April, and he has just five late-season starts in Double-A and zero experience at the top minor league level. Carrying him on the MLB roster from day one would be a risk, though president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said on a few occasions this offseason that it’s not out of the question (link via Andy Jasner of Sports Illustrated).

Mick Abel

Abel was Philadelphia’s first-round selection the year before Painter. Also a high school righty, he’s likewise developed into one of the sport’s more talented young arms. Abel split last season between High-A and Double-A, also making just five starts at the latter level. He combined for a 3.90 ERA across 108 1/3 frames with a 27.6% strikeout rate but a 10.6% walk percentage. He’s a consensus top-100 talent but below Painter in the prospect hierarchy, with a little less velocity and a greater need to refine his control. Abel’s a very good prospect and could potentially put himself in the MLB mix midseason, but right now it doesn’t seem like he’ll get immediate consideration for an Opening Day rotation role. Of course, a standout spring performance could potentially change that.

Griff McGarry

McGarry, a Virginia product, was a fifth-round draftee in 2021. As a college player, he’s older than Painter and Abel. He spent most of the 2022 season as a starter at High-A and Double-A as well but got eight late-season relief outings at Lehigh Valley. McGarry combined for 87 1/3 innings of 3.71 ERA ball in his first full professional season. He punched out an enormous 35.7% of opponents but walked batters at a 14.6% clip. McGarry has had high-octane stuff but inconsistent control dating back to his time in college. He’s a well-regarded prospect in his own right and looks like a great find for the Phils in the fifth round, though he’d need a dramatic improvement in his strike-throwing to factor into the MLB rotation this year. A midseason bullpen debut might be more likely.

Minor League Depth

Michael Plassmeyer

Acquired in a minor league trade that sent catcher Austin Wynns to the Giants last summer, Plassmeyer cracked the 40-man roster in August. He’d been hit hard in Triple-A with San Francisco but seemed to turn the corner in the Philadelphia organization. Over 16 starts for Lehigh Valley, the former fourth-round draftee posted a 2.41 ERA across 82 innings. He had some strand rate and BABIP help but also struck out 24.8% of opponents against a 7% walk rate. That’s enough to get Plassmeyer on the MLB radar, but he’d struggled significantly with walks and home runs on the road to a 7.38 ERA over 11 appearances with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate prior to the trade.

James McArthur

McArthur made 13 starts for Double-A Reading last season before suffering a stress reaction in his throwing elbow. He struck out a quarter of opponents at that level but issued walks at a higher than average 10% clip. Over 57 innings, he managed a 5.05 ERA in a hitter-friendly home environment. McArthur’s 26 and has still yet to reach Triple-A. That he’s still holding a 40-man roster spot suggests the Phils still like his upside, though he’d presumably need to earn an MLB look with a strong showing in Lehigh Valley and might fit better in the bullpen regardless.

———————–

The Phillies figure to bring a few more arms to camp as non-roster Spring Training invitees. Philadelphia added Kyle Hart on a minor league deal this afternoon, while Hans Crouse remains in the organization after clearing outright waivers last November. It’s possible the front office looks for another starter with some MLB experience who’s willing to accept an NRI.

Unless the Phils surprisingly add Michael Wacha or pivot to the trade market, however, it’s unlikely anyone they bring in at this point would get an immediate MLB rotation job. The organization looks prepared to put a lot of faith in their highly-touted prospects, especially Painter. Whether that’ll be the case from day one is to be determined, with Falter and Sánchez in position to vie for key roles if the Phils determine more minor league time is necessary for their vaunted young arms.

Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Search

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The Phillies are looking to add a front-of-the-rotation type of arm, with The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter links) writing that the Phils want “a starter who can start a playoff game.”  To this end, the club has been linked to such arms as the Reds’ Tyler Mahle, the Angels’ Noah Syndergaard, and the Pirates’ Jose Quintana — three of the most prominent starting pitchers remaining on the trade market.

Mahle is controlled through the 2023 season, while Syndergaard and Quintana would be pure rentals as players who are scheduled for free agency this winter.  As such, Mahle would surely cost the most in a trade, and Syndergaard carries a bit of a financial hit, with roughly $7.2MM still owed to him over the remainder of the season.  By contrast, Quintana is owed only around $675K for the rest of 2022, but Quintana also has a shaky track record over the last few seasons before righting himself this year in Pittsburgh.

Dave Dombrowski, Philadelphia’s president of baseball operations, suggested earlier this week that his team was hoping to bolster the rotation, but the Phils were also hesitant about dealing any of their top prospects.  Stark backs up that assertion, noting that the Phillies haven’t been willing to move any of Mick Abel, Andrew Painter or Logan O’Hoppe (the Phils’ consensus top-three prospects in the view of Baseball America and MLB Pipeline), or right-handed pitching propects Griff McGarry or Ben Brown.  BA ranks McGarry fourth and Brown seventh in their ranking of Phillies prospects, while Pipeline is a little less bullish, ranking McGarry eighth and Brown 26th.

Since the Phillies’ system isn’t considered to be too deep overall, it isn’t any surprise that the front office isn’t keen on parting ways with any of the relatively few premium names on hand in the minors.  However, as Stark observes, the Phils will find it difficult to obtain higher-tier pitching unless they’re open to trading prospects.  Given the amount of interest Mahle has received from around the league, and given what the Reds just obtained from the Mariners in the Luis Castillo deal, it would seem almost impossible for the Phillies to land Mahle without at least one of the blue-chip prospects.

Syndergaard and Quintana would come at a lower price tag as rental players, but Stark notes that Dombrowski also prefers controllable starters.  This was Philadelphia’s strategy in landing Kyle Gibson from the Rangers at last year’s deadline, and landing a starter who is controlled through at least 2023 would give the Phillies some cover since Gibson and Zach Eflin could both be free agents this winter.

The rotation seems to be Philadelphia’s top priority at this point, as Stark says that the Phillies aren’t focused on any bullpen moves for the moment.  This is a little surprising given the Phils’ longstanding needs in the relief corps, but it could be that Dombrowski is first exploring his options with the starter market before turning to the (relatively) easier route of adding relievers.  Also, virtually every contender in baseball is looking for relievers right now, so Dombrowski could be opting to make some late strikes after the first wave or two of bullpen trades have been made.

Big Hype Prospects: Meyer, Pratto, Ruiz, Greene, Cowser

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This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll check in with a few recent and upcoming promotees along with a smattering of others.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Max Meyer, 23, SP, Marlins
AAA: 58 IP, 10.09 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 3.72 ERA

Meyer is poised for his first taste of the Majors on Saturday, just ahead of the All-Star Break. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored at the time his promotion was announced, the northpaw has made short work of minor league opponents at all stops. His ascent has not been without caveat. Some commentators worry about his ability to hold down a rotation role in the Majors for three reasons. The first is easiest to dismiss as unnecessary fretting. At 6’0’’, Meyer is slightly undersized which can presage an inability to tolerate 180-inning workloads. That said, there are plenty of “short” pitchers in baseball history, most notably Pedro Martinez.

The second and third issues are a bit more worrisome. They tie together, too. Meyer’s fastball command isn’t as sharp as his walk rates suggest. He’s gotten away with using it in the zone in the minors, but he could run into some trouble in the Majors. He relies almost exclusively on his fastball and an elite slider, a combination which often portends a future in the bullpen. That said, lower caliber pitchers like Brad Keller and Brady Singer have managed mid-rotation quality results with the same repertoire. We’ve also seen a few others like Spencer Strider thrive this season while using a different two-pitch repertoire.

Nick Pratto, 23, 1B, Royals
AAA: 337 PA, 17 HR, 8 SB, .240/.373/.484

Like many of his power-hitting Major League colleagues, Pratto got off to a slow start this season before eventually finding his stride. The Royals have promoted him for a series in Toronto in which they’ve infamously left 10 players south of the Canadian border. As such, his debut might be short-lived.

Pratto is a classic patient, left-handed slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber. Like the upcoming Home Run Derby participant, Pratto runs a mid-teens walk rate while striking out in around 30 percent of plate appearances. He makes up for so little contact by punishing those with which he does connect. Nearly half of his batted balls are flies and over 20 percent of those leave the yard. Per a home run calculator I’ve developed, Pratto projects for 33 home runs per 600 plate appearances. While he’s shown a willingness to run, he has below average speed. Like Schwarber, Pratto will probably be a volatile performer whose carrying trait is slugging.

Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, Padres
AA: 232 PA, 9 HR, 37 SB, .344/.474/.611
AAA: 142 PA, 4 HR, 23 SB, .315/.457/.477

Ruiz draws his hype from our friends in the fantasy baseball realm where his combination of power and speed could make him one of the most celebrated players in the game. From a real-world perspective, there are a lot of things that could go wrong. Starting on defense, he only has about a year of experience as an outfielder. His routes can be inconsistent or even circuitous. Fortunately, he has enough speed to recover while he learns the position. Speed doesn’t guarantee eventual mastery as an outfield defender. Roman Quinn is similarly fleet and still takes baffling routes to the ball at times.

Scouts also worry about his hit tool. Prior to this season, Ruiz had consistently below-average plate discipline. He struggled with swinging strikes, strikeouts, and consistency of contact. Notably, he’s produced 13.9 percent walk and 17.4 percent strikeout rates this season across two levels. His swinging-strike rate has also improved. Perhaps a more selective approach has yielded better contact results (I’m still awaiting comment from my sources). Regardless, speed is his carrying trait. Nabbing 60 bases (69 attempts) in 374 plate appearances is seriously impressive work.
I’m reminded of Michael A. Taylor, an outfielder who, at his peak, occasionally hit for power, often stole bases, but never quite made enough contact to stick as a regular. He’s carved out a nice career based on gold glove caliber center field defense. As noted above, Ruiz will need to improve considerably to match Taylor on defense. The raw tools are there.

Riley Greene, 21, OF, Tigers
MLB: 109 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .255/.358/.340

Greene’s prospect eligibility will soon expire. His first taste of the Majors has yielded mixed results. On the one hand, he’s effectively working counts. His 21.1 percent strikeout and 7.9 percent swinging-strike rates exceed even the wildest hopes for his early-career performance. The swinging-strike rate, in particular, is a marked divergence from expectations.

On the other hand, Greene is supposed to be a power hitter. With just one home run, three doubles, and a triple to his name, he’s been one of the most punchless batters since his debut in mid-June. Only 19 players have a lower ISO over that span – mostly names like Geraldo Perdomo, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan.

Better times likely await ahead. Greene is making consistent hard and barreled contact. It’s also encouraging to see him make adjustments. He’ll need to continue to do so to correct for the biggest flaw in his profile – an over-50 percent ground ball rate. While he’s currently using a shift-proof all-fields approach, he’s the kind of hitter who could benefit from a more pull-centric profile.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, Orioles
High-A: 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
AA: 53 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .308/.491/.615

In a crowded Orioles system, a lot of attention is paid to Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall. However, Cowser is also a Top 50-caliber prospect who is quickly working his way towards a big league debut in early 2023. With a patient approach, good rate of contact, and a swing geared for high BABIPs, Cowser profiles as a top-of-the-lineup force. He produces premium line-drive rates while using an all-fields approach. A left-handed hitter, he won’t be as penalized by the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his right-handed hitting teammates. Yet, since he hits to all fields, he’ll still use the spacious left field pasture to splash doubles.

If Cowser has a shortcoming, it’s that he doesn’t consistently get to in-game power. As mentioned, his swing skews to low-angle contact. He produces plenty of well-hit balls, but his game is mostly geared around reaching base. In today’s MLB, you never know when a player will make an adjustment that unlocks another gear, but it’s not strictly necessary in Cowser’s case. The Orioles have plenty of mid-lineup bats penciled into their future lineups. However, they could use a leadoff hitter who works counts and jumps on mistakes in the zone.

Five More

Michael Massey, Royals (24 years old): Another temporary beneficiary of the Royals’ roster triage, Massey isn’t technically a hyped prospect. However, my best scouting resource has been talking him up for a full year as a future regular. While it isn’t the most exciting profile, he skews to line drive and “fliner” contact which helps him to run high BABIPs while also regularly hitting for extra bases. The elevated BABIP will be necessary if he’s to be an above average hitter – his plate discipline and contact skills are slightly below average. Defensively, he profiles as a utilityman who fits best at second base.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): With Shane Baz returning to the injured list due to an ominous elbow sprain, Perez is the last truly elite pitching prospect (Baz, Daniel Espino, and Grayson Rodriguez) left standing. The Marlins are carefully managing his workload – both by holding him to around 20 batters faced per appearance while using him every seven or eight days. He’s carved through Double-A competition and could probably more than hold his own in the Majors. He’s only 19 years and three months old, so Miami is taking the long view with his development.

Jordan Walker, Cardinals (20): Walker has yet to appear in this column for two simple reasons. His performance hasn’t merited effusive praise or words of caution. As one of the youngest players in Double-A, he’s batting .302/.392/.476 with seven home runs and 15 steals while demonstrating good strike zone judgment and a batted ball approach based around liners and ground balls. His light-tower power is handicapped by hitting too many grounders. It’s not a death blow to his presumed future as a top slugger. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are among the notable power hitters who skew to low-angle contact.

Mick Abel, Phillies (20): With the usual caveats about injury, Abel will be one of the most-hyped pitching prospects this time next year. He’s performed well though not exceptionally at High-A this season, producing a 4.23 ERA with 10.50 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9. Recently, he’s struggled with both home runs and walks. The Phillies have allowed him to pitch surprisingly deep into his starts. He often faces 24 or more batters, which is more than the average big leaguer. This workload has been mitigated with extra rest between starts.

Brayan Rocchio, Guardians (21): Since a four-hit, two-homer game at the end of June, Rocchio is batting .452/.500/.833 over his last 46 plate appearances. In his second stint at Double-A, he’s noticeably improved upon his walk and strikeout rates. He’s beginning to track as a shortstop whose defensive and offensive prowess will remind Guardians fans of Francisco Lindor. Including last season, he now has 506 plate appearances at Double-A. A promotion to Triple-A is almost certainly imminent.

Phillies Interested In Matt Chapman

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The Phillies have shown interest in A’s third baseman Matt Chapman, but unsurprisingly, the Athletics have put a big price tag on the Gold Glover.  In exchange for Chapman, Oakland is asking for one of the Phillies’ top prospects as the centerpiece of a trade package, Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports, with such names as shortstop Bryson Stott or right-handers Mick Abel and Andrew Painter mentioned as the caliber of prospect the Athletics would have in mind.

Since Philadelphia’s farm system is short on premium talent, naturally the “Phillies have been reluctant to” part with any of their best youngsters in a Chapman deal, Coffey writes.  President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has a long history of trading quality minor league talent for proven big leaguers, however, and it is possible that giving up another blue-chip prospect would simply be the necessary cost to pry Chapman away from the A’s.

While the Athletics’ payroll-cutting endeavors have already begun with tonight’s Chris Bassitt trade with the Mets (a Phillies NL East rival, no less), Billy Beane’s front office isn’t going to move Chapman for pure salary-dump purposes.  At his best, Chapman has shown he is one of the game’s best all-around players, combining consistently superb third base defense with some big offensive numbers, particularly in 2018 and 2019.  Over the last two years, however, Chapman’s average and OBP totals have dropped off, while his strikeouts have ballooned — Chapman’s 33.1% strikeout rate is the third-highest of any qualified hitter in baseball since the start of the 2020 season.

The Phillies and other trade suitors (the Yankees and Mariners have been linked to Chapman earlier this winter) could use this downturn to try and negotiate a lesser trade return for the third baseman, yet that tactic might not work given the amount of interest in his services.  Chapman is projected for a $9.5MM salary in 2022 and also has another arbitration year remaining in 2023, with that extra control only adding to the Athletics’ high asking price.

Alec Bohm (himself a former top prospect) is penciled into Philadelphia’s third base role for Opening Day, though Bohm’s defensive struggles have already led to speculation that a position change could be in his future.  Bohm’s lack of production at the plate in 2021 also didn’t help his cause, even if countless players have dealt with the so-called sophomore slump.  Theoretically, the Phillies could acquire Chapman and then move Bohm across the diamond into a first base/DH split with Rhys Hoskins, though such a move would then lock up the Phils’ DH spot.

Stott is also a factor in the team’s infield plans, as the 14th overall pick of the 2019 draft has been viewed as a candidate to both make his MLB debut in 2022, and also immediately step into a regular role.  This could be as a shortstop if Didi Gregorius is traded, perhaps at second base if the Phillies opted to instead deal Jean Segura, or maybe even at the hot corner, if the Phillies decide to switch Bohm’s position even without acquiring a proven veteran like Chapman.  While the Phillies surely also prize Abel and Painter, it would seem on paper that Stott might be the most untouchable of the trio, given Stott’s importance to Philadelphia’s infield plans.

Phillies Looking At Fourth Starters, Bullpen Upgrades

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The Phillies may not have played as well as they’d hoped after an active first offseason under new front office leaders Dave Dombrowski and Sam Fuld, but they’re still a game over .500 and only three back from the lead in a division no one has run away with just yet. Given the context of their division and Dombrowski’s reputation as an aggressive, “win-now” type of executive, it should come as little surprise that he plainly indicated this week that he has no plans to trade away veteran pieces in the week-plus leading up to the July 30 trade deadline.

“We are contending,” Dombrowski told NBC Sports Philadelphia’s John Clark on his podcast this week. “…We’re not selling. We’re not in a position where we’re looking to move players off our team.”

Dombrowski declined to tip his hand as to specific areas he could upgrade, though he did note that the bullpen has again been inconsistent and that the team’s defense “is not our strength.” The first-year Phillies president of baseball ops also pushed back on the narrative that his team doesn’t have the prospects to make substantial upgrades. Dombrowski suggested that 2020 first-rounder Mick Abel isn’t likely to be moved but generally sounded open-minded about making moves to improve his club. Phillies fans, in particular, will want to give the entire interview a listen.

While Dombrowski would only vaguely indicate that the club can “get better in a couple areas,” Jayson Stark and Matt Gelb of The Athletic report that the team is targeting fourth and fifth starters to round out the rotation, as well as back-end relievers who can help shore up the team’s late-inning relief corps.

That meshes with Dombrowski’s assessment of the rotation in his interview with Clark. The former Expos, Marlins, Tigers and Red Sox baseball ops head lauded Zack Wheeler’s work and noted that when Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin are all pitching up to their capabilities, “you can beat anybody” in a short playoff series. Dombrowski also repeatedly praised lefty Ranger Suarez, who has recently emerged as a ninth-inning option and generally been effective since joining the club in early May. Suarez carries a 1.22 ERA, a 27.3 percent strikeout rate, and 8.4 percent walk rate and a 65.2 percent ground-ball rate in 37 innings.

One option of particular intrigue for Phillies fans could be former Philadelphia ace Cole Hamels. The free-agent lefty held a showcase for MLB teams last week, and Dombrowski confirmed to Clark that the Phillies attended the workout and threw the ball well. While candidly acknowledging interest in the lefty, however, Dombrowski also noted that he could be 30-plus days away from joining a big league rotation, as Hamels needs to go through the equivalent of a Spring Training buildup. That doesn’t provide the Phils or anyone else immediate help — and that’s something the Phillies could use with Eflin on the injured list at the moment.

With regard to specific trade targets, Dombrowski appears to still be casting a wide net and gauging asking prices throughout the league. Stark and Gelb write that the Phils have checked on “every closer who could be available” but aren’t limiting their search to current closers. The Phillies, like every other team, are cognizant of the fact that the next week could determine whether a few clubs operate as buyers or make some veterans available.

Dombrowski spoke about that tenuous balance with Clark, noting that it’d take something catastrophic (e.g. a 10-game losing streak) for the Phillies to sell. On the flip side, however, as a team looking to buy, that fine line being walked by so many other clubs could lead to players becoming available just before the deadline. “All of a sudden, [another team] loses three in a row, and somebody may be available that you weren’t anticipating to be available,” Dombrowski said to Clark.

There’s an argument that the Phillies (and other buyers) should simply act now rather than take the wait-and-see approach that is so prevalent throughout the game at the moment. But every front office is at the mercy of how much ownership will spend, and investing immediate resources only to find that a more desirable target is available a couple of days down the road is a risk when payroll isn’t unlimited.

Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez has the Phillies about $4.2MM from the $210MM luxury threshold. Stark, however, reports that the feeling among other clubs who’ve spoken with the Phillies about potential trades is that they’d be willing to cross that barrier for the first time in franchise history. That doesn’t mean Phils fans should assume there’s no limit to what Dombrowski can spend on outside acquisitions, but it’s a critical piece of context to consider as the deadline looms.

Looking around the league, there are plenty of fourth starter types available. Minnesota’s Michael Pineda, Colorado’s Jon Gray, Pittsburgh’s Tyler Anderson and Chicago’s Zach Davies are among the names available. There’s no need for the Phils to limit themselves to rental starters, either; Andrew McCutchen, Odubel Herrera, Archie Bradley, Chase Anderson, Matt Moore, Brad Miller, Vince Velasquez, Hector Neris, Brandon Kintzler and Matt Joyce are all coming off the roster at season’s end. The Phils still have $134MM committed to their 2022 books even with that large group of pending free agents, but this is a team that opened the 2021 season with a $197MM payroll and is now willing to add to it. Merrill Kelly, Matthew Boyd and Kyle Gibson are among the names available who could be moved even though they’re controlled through the 2022 season.

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