Twins Option Zebby Matthews, Finalize Rotation Plans
The Twins announced Friday that they’ve optioned right-hander Zebby Matthews to Triple-A St. Paul. They didn’t formally say it, but that effectively sets Minnesota’s rotation heading into the season, barring a late injury or trade.
Minnesota did, however, formally name Joe Ryan the Opening Day starter today. That was a foregone conclusion after Pablo López was lost for the season due to UCL surgery early in camp. Right-handers Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson were more or less locks entering spring training. Ober had a rough stretch last summer while trying to pitch through a hip injury but has been a steady third/fourth starter in Minnesota for several seasons otherwise. Woods Richardson has been up and down between Minneapolis and St. Paul over the past two seasons but had a strong finish in ’25 and is out of minor league options.
The rest of the rotation looked less certain following López’s injury. Matthews and fellow righties David Festa, Taj Bradley and Mick Abel were vying for the final two spots. All four were ranked as top-100 prospects prior to their major league debuts, but none has fully solidified himself in the majors yet. Festa went down early with a shoulder injury that isn’t expected to necessitate a long-term absence but will send him to the injured list to begin the season. Matthews, Bradley and Abel were in a three-man competition for the final two rotation spots. With Matthews now optioned, it’ll be Bradley and Abel rounding out the staff.
Bradley came over from the Rays in exchange for Griffin Jax just minutes before the trade deadline last summer. He’s had some success at times in the majors but lacked consistency. However, he’s celebrating his 25th birthday today, so he’s plenty young and still has four seasons of club control remaining. Bradley has had a good spring showing. His 4.50 ERA in 14 frames is unremarkable, but he’s punched out a huge 32.2% of opponents against a solid 8.5% walk rate. His fastball velocity is up nearly a mile per hour this spring, sitting at an average of 96.9 mph, and he’s sporting an above-average 12.5% swinging-strike rate.
Abel, 24, is another deadline pickup for Minnesota. He came to the Twins from the Phillies in last July’s Jhoan Duran swap. Abel is a former first-round pick who for years ranked as a top-100 prospect. He was leapfrogged in the Phillies’ system by Andrew Painter, and a shaky 2024 season in the minors caused Abel to fall off of national prospect rankings. He bounced back in a big way in Triple-A last year, posting a pristine 2.20 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate in 98 1/3 innings. The 6’5″ righty matched that production through his first four MLB starts with the Phillies but struggled thereafter, allowing nine runs in his next 4 2/3 innings before being shipped to Minnesota.
Abel has looked dominant this spring. In 18 innings, he’s held opponents to a flat 2.00 ERA with a 34.8% strikeout rate against just a 4.5% walk rate and kept 53.8% of batted balls against him on the ground. In this spring’s small sample, Abel has upped the usage of his slider and changeup while scaling back how frequently he uses his two-seamer. The results, clearly, have been quite strong.
Matthews, 25, has pitched in parts of two seasons with the Twins already. He’s logged very good strikeout and walk rates (24.7%, 6.6% respectively) but been far too susceptible to home runs. He’s a pronounced fly-ball pitcher who has seen nearly 15% of his fly-balls leave the yard; that’s led to an average of 1.77 homers per nine innings pitched.
Matthews sat better than 96 mph with his heater last season, pairing it with a plus slider and plus command. He’s yet to find an average third offering, as his changeup has been hit hard. If he can dial in a third pitch to help keep lefties off balance, he could yet emerge as a mid-rotation starter. Righties are flummoxed by that slider, but lefty hitters have turned in a huge .316/.372/.572 slash against him in the majors. Obviously, that won’t cut it.
The Twins will send Matthews to Triple-A to continue working on rounding out his arsenal. It’s possible that he and/or Festa could eventually emerge as bullpen options, particularly if Bradley and Abel can carry their spring performances into the regular season. The Twins have a number of interesting upper-level arms on the cusp of MLB readiness beyond that pair, including Kendry Rojas, Andrew Morris, Dasan Hill, Marco Raya (who’s moving to the bullpen full-time this season) and top prospect Connor Prielipp.
Poll: Who Will Be The Odd Man Out In The Twins’ Rotation?
The Twins traded 11 players at least year’s deadline, shipping out several rental veterans and a series of controllable relievers that left them with one of the game’s worst pitching staffs in the second half. That hit to the team’s more immediate competitiveness came with the upside of adding to an already impressive cache of starting pitching talent, however. Spring injuries to Pablo López and David Festa have thinned the herd, but the Twins have more viable starters than they can fit into a five-man rotation.
Righties Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are locked into spots. Ryan has been one of the American League’s most consistent starters in recent seasons. Ober has been a solid third/fourth starter for the bulk of his career but saw his 2025 numbers tanked by a catastrophic June. Simeon Woods Richardson is a heavy favorite to land a rotation spot since he’s out of minor league options and pitched well down the stretch in 2025.
Looking at the team’s optionable starters, there are a few who seem unlikely to make the rotation at this point. Lefties Kendry Rojas and Connor Prielipp and righties John Klein and Andrew Morris have yet to make their MLB debuts. They’ll likely start off in Triple-A, though any of the bunch could fight his way into a rotation spot later in the year. Putting Woods Richardson in the rotation and eliminating the players who have yet to debut in the majors from the conversation leaves three arms — Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, and Zebby Matthews — for two spots.
Bradley, acquired last summer for Griffin Jax, is the most experienced at the big league level of the three. Once a consensus top-25 prospect in the sport, he made it to the majors with Tampa Bay in 2023 and has mostly stuck in their rotation since. He’s not yet enjoyed much in the way of results as a big leaguer, however, as demonstrated by his 4.86 ERA in 75 appearances (73 starts).
Bradley’s ERA+ peaked at 97 in 2024 and sits at just 85 for his career. His peripherals are better than his results, and his career 4.00 SIERA does offer some confidence about his ability to perform at the big league level. He won’t turn 25 until next month. Bradley is still young enough to be capable of breaking out in a big way, but he’s also young enough that spending time at Triple-A is hardly outlandish.
Matthews is about ten months older than Bradley but is less experienced in the majors. The right-hander has a similar resume in a smaller sample. He’s made just 25 big league starts, and while his 5.92 ERA is ugly, a 4.41 FIP and 3.80 SIERA both offer some reason for optimism.
Matthews has a career 24.7% strikeout rate against a 6.6% walk rate. That’s good for a K-BB% on par with high-end arms like Kevin Gausman and Freddy Peralta. Much of his struggles in terms of results surely has to do with an incredibly high .359 BABIP, which figures to come down across a larger sample. He also took a notable step forward in 2025 relative to 2024, as his barrel rate plummeted from 14% down to a more acceptable 9.9%, while his hard-hit rate dropped to 38.8%. Matthews’ struggles at the big league level might be enough to keep him out of the rotation to start the year, but the underlying metrics on the former top-100 prospect could warrant a longer look.
As for Abel, the right-hander is by far the least experienced in the majors. He made his MLB debut just last year and won’t turn 25 until August. He posted a 6.23 ERA in a 39 inning cup of coffee last year between the Phillies and Twins. That would make it easy to write Abel off for the Opening Day roster, but he has considerable pedigree as a recent top-100 prospect and has opened eyes this spring with a dominant performance. Abel has fired off ten scoreless innings in three starts with 13 strikeouts, good for a 39.4% clip. Bradley (seven runs in 14 innings, 19-to-5 K/BB) and Matthews (seven runs in six innings) haven’t been as sharp. Spring numbers only count for so much, of course, but Abel has made a stronger case for himself than his competition.
How do MLBTR readers expect the Twins to decide who gets left out of the Opening Day rotation? Will they leave off Abel due to his lack of experience, overlook Matthews’ strong peripherals, or not be swayed by Bradley’s experience? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will be the odd man out in the Twins' rotation?
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Zebby Matthews 54% (1,435)
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Mick Abel 35% (916)
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Taj Bradley 11% (288)
Total votes: 2,639
Twins Place Pablo Lopez On 15-Day Injured List
The Twins placed right-hander Pablo Lopez on the 15-day injured list today due to a right forearm strain. Right-hander Mick Abel was recalled to replace Lopez on the active roster. With just over a week left in the 2025 campaign and Minnesota completely out of the playoff picture, the move to the injured list ends Lopez’s season.
Lopez, 29, finishes the year having been limited to just 14 starts by injuries. After a short stint on the shelf due to a hamstring strain in April, Lopez went on to miss three months over the summer due to a shoulder strain before this forearm strain brought his season to a close. When healthy enough to take the field, Lopez was effective as ever with a 2.74 ERA and 3.20 FIP across his 75 2/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate of 23.4% was a little bit lower than recent years but still only a tick below his career norms, and a 6.4% walk rate is a near perfect match for his career 6.3% rate.
That Lopez has looked more or less the same in terms of production despite all of those injuries should be reassuring for the Twins as they enter an uncertain offseason following a massive sell-off that seemingly plunged them into what could be a protracted rebuild. With two years and $43.5MM left on Lopez’s contract, he would surely be an attractive trade chip to market over the offseason if the Twins want to further focus on loading up with young talent for the future. If he had pitched poorly when on the mound this year, getting much value for Lopez might not on the table for this winter, and they’d have to either sell low on him or hold him into the 2026 season.
Of course, it’s still entirely possible they hold onto Lopez for the time being. It’s not impossible to imagine some teams balking at paying a premium for Lopez’s services with so many injury woes on his resume this season, and today’s news of a forearm strain won’t help those concerns. If teams are wary of Lopez’s health, perhaps Minnesota will decide to hold onto him and hope for better health in 2026. With that being said, the strain appears to be rather mild. Dan Hayes of The Athletic relays that there is “no concern” regarding Lopez’s elbow or UCL, and that the strain is mild enough that he would’ve likely avoided the IL entirely had the Twins still been in the race for the postseason. That description of the injury sounds minor enough that it likely shouldn’t change a team’s evaluation of Lopez significantly, which is good news for the Twins if they hope to make the right-hander available this offseason.
Of course, if the Twins decide to pivot away from what looks like it could be the start of a rebuild and instead try to augment the club with an eye towards contention in 2026, Lopez will be a key piece of that team alongside other core pieces like Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan. While that trio is some of the only certainty that Twins have at this point, they have very little money on the books after dumping Carlos Correa‘s contract to Houston and could have some considerable upside if young players like Luke Keaschall and Brooks Lee manage to step into larger roles next year.
Twins Designate Jose Urena For Assignment
10:51AM: Urena’s DFA and Abel’s call-up were both officially announced by the Twins.
7:09AM: The Twins designated right-hander Jose Urena for assignment yesterday, according to The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Right-hander Mick Abel will be called up today in the corresponding move, and Abel will get the start in today’s game against the White Sox.
Urena was Thursday’s starter, and he was tagged for six earned runs over five innings in the Twins’ 8-3 loss to the Athletics. This boosted Urena’s ERA to 4.58 over 17 2/3 innings since Minnesota selected his contract on August 1, as one of many roster moves the Twins made the day after their major selloff at the trade deadline. Urena started three of his four appearances in a Twins uniform, and took a 2.13 ERA into Friday’s action, though neither his 12.8% strikeout rate or his 10.3% walk rate were anything impressive.
It was almost exactly two months ago that Urena signed a minor league contract with Minnesota, continuing a nomadic season that has seen the veteran log big league innings for four different teams. Urena has a 5.00 ERA over 36 combined innings with the Mets, Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Twins, with a 12.5% strikeout rate and 8.1BB%.
In all three of his previous stops, Urena was designated for assignment, outrighted off the 40-man roster, and he then elected free agency rather than accept that outright assignment to Triple-A. With more than eight full years of MLB service time, Urena has more than enough experience to allow him to turn down outright assignments in favor of return trips to the open market.
It seems probable that he’ll elect free agency again here in the likely event that he clears waivers, though Urena might prefer some stability after bouncing around the league in 2025, and his options are more limited given the lack of time remaining in the regular season. Another team in search of innings could also potentially just claim Urena off the waiver wire and insert him into their bullpen as a swingman, or into the rotation.
Abel made his Major League debut earlier this season in the form of six starts and 25 innings with the Phillies, posting a 5.04 ERA in his first taste of action against big league hitters. In perhaps the largest of Minnesota’s many deadline moves, Abel and Eduardo Tait were acquired from Philadelphia in exchange for Jhoan Duran, as the Twins opted to part ways with the closer in exchange for a top catching prospect in Tait and a big league-ready starter in Abel who is himself a former top-100 prospect.
Now in line to make his official Twins debut today, Abel has already shone in the minors, with a 1.76 ERA over three starts and 15 1/3 innings for Triple-A St. Paul. Minnesota president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told Hayes and other reporters earlier this month that the Twins wanted to deploy both Abel and fellow deadline pickup Taj Bradley at Triple-A to begin their tenure with the team, since “sometimes you need to get your legs under you in a new organization before you take that next step.” Bradley also figures to be called up relatively soon, with Hayes speculating that Bradley might also be promoted to start Sunday’s game in Chicago.
Twins Deadline Notes: Phillies, Duran, Jax, Paddack, Reds
It wasn’t really a shock that the Twins became deadline sellers, as the club’s downturn in June and July pretty much closed the door on Minnesota’s chances of contending. However, the sheer scope of the Twins’ selloff was eye-opening, as the club swung nine different trades within four days of the July 31 deadline and sent 11 different players to eight separate clubs. Several behind-the-scenes details about the trades the Twins both did and didn’t make have filtered out since July 31, and Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Minnesota Star Tribune adds a few more notes about the front office approached this pivotal four-day period.
Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax were both pursued by several teams, though “the Dodgers didn’t show much interest in” either reliever, Nightengale writes. This runs somewhat contrary to a pre-deadline report that linked Los Angeles to the duo, though it could be that the Dodgers simply weren’t interested in paying what ended up being a high price tag for either pitcher. Though the Dodgers were known to be considering pretty much every reliever on the market, the reigning World Series champs’ biggest bullpen splash ended up being another Twin in Brock Stewart. Though Stewart is arbitration-eligible through 2027, his “trade value was more commensurate with a rental reliever because of his injury history,” according to Nightengale, which is why Minnesota obtained outfielder James Outman (something of a spare part in L.A.) rather than prospects.
The Twins wanted two top-100 prospects for Duran, an asking price commensurate with the closer’s quality and the fact that he is arb-controlled through 2027. It was a big enough ask to dissuade the Mariners, who “were deep into talks with the Twins” and may have been the runners-up in the Duran talks. The Phillies refused to give up Andrew Painter for Duran or anyone, and ended up landing Duran for catching prospect Eduardo Tait and young starter Mick Abel.
Technically, this trade package didn’t meet Minnesota’s ask, since Abel was no longer part of top-100 rankings heading into the 2025 season. Still, Abel has been a regular on such rankings for the previous four years, was selected 15th overall by the Phils in the 2020 draft, and is a big league-ready starter after making his MLB debut this season.
Tait and Leo De Vries (acquired by the A’s from the Padres in the Mason Miller blockbuster) were the only consensus top-100 prospects who changed teams at this year’s deadline, speaking to the high value that clubs place on these top prospects. Nightengale writes that Minnesota felt Tait “had the highest upside” of any of the players that the Mariners offered for Duran, and preferred Tait to another top Phillies prospect in shortstop Aidan Miller. This would seem to imply that Philadelphia was also willing to include Miller as the top prospect in the package, which tracks with past reports indicating that Painter and perhaps Justin Crawford were the only real untouchables within the Phils’ minor league system.
Duran was dealt on July 30 and the Twins then swung another trade with the Phillies the next day, moving Harrison Bader for two lower-level prospects (outfielder Hendry Mendez and right-hander Geremy Villoria). The Twins and Phillies had previously talked about combining Duran and Bader into a single deal, but Nightengale writes that Minnesota wanted to move Duran separately.
This left Bader as one of the seven trades Minnesota swung on the July 31 deadline day itself, including the deal that sent Jax to the Rays for Taj Bradley. Since Jax is also arb-controlled through 2027, the Twins initially wanted a prospect package “similar to the one they received in the Duran deal.” This could explain why “Jax’s market didn’t pick up until the last day,” Nightengale notes, and perhaps why teams like the Dodgers were balking. Rather than getting a prospect back for Jax, the Twins instead got an experienced MLB starter who is controlled through 2029, and as the club is betting that Bradley has a higher ceiling of performance.
Minnesota’s trading flurry began when Chris Paddack and Randy Dobnak were sent to the Tigers on July 28 in exchange for catching prospect Enrique Jimenez. Paddack was known to be receiving interest from the Rays and Yankees, and Nightengale adds that the Reds were another club at least exploring the right-hander’s market. With Paddack off the board, Cincinnati pivoted to land another rental starter in Zack Littell as part of a three-team trade involving the Rays and Dodgers.
Phillies Acquire Jhoan Duran
The Phillies have acquired closer Jhoan Duran from the Twins in exchange for catching prospect Eduardo Tait and right-handed pitcher Mick Abel. Both teams have officially announced the deal.
Duran was one of the biggest names on this summer’s trade market. He came in at no. 34 on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 trade candidates, but he surely would have ranked higher if it seemed more likely that he’d be dealt. The flamethrowing right-hander is one of the undisputed best closers in the game, with a career 2.47 ERA, 2.48 SIERA, and 74 saves in 83 chances over the past four seasons. Dating back to his rookie season in 2022, he has thrown 233 2/3 innings in 223 games, racking up 292 strikeouts (seventh-most among relievers) with an elite 63.2% groundball rate. His 9.10 Win Probability Added (WPA) ranks third in that same span, trailing only Devin Williams and Félix Bautista. The 1,284 pitches he’s thrown at or above 100 miles an hour (per Statcast) are easily the most in the majors; Mason Miller ranks second with 819. Only 27 years old and arguably pitching better than ever – he’s on pace for career-highs in both the FanGraphs and Baseball Reference versions of WAR – Duran remains under team control via arbitration through the 2027 campaign.
The possibility of the Twins trading Duran began to seem more and more realistic over the past couple of days, with the 51-57 Twins looking to take advantage of a seller’s market and a bevy of contending teams seeking late-inning bullpen help. It was no secret the Phillies were one such club. A few weeks ago, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reported that Duran (and teammate Griffin Jax) would be “prized targets” for Philadelphia, noting that, in contrast to past deadlines, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was prioritizing “controllable big leaguers” and, in particular, a controllable “shutdown, late-inning reliever.” Since Gelb’s initial report, several more sources linked the Phillies to Duran, including Nightengale and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, but the most recent reporting indicated that their refusal to part with top prospect Andrew Painter would ultimately prevent them from landing Duran, with both Nightengale and Rosenthal and Gelb suggesting as much. Evidently, the Twins softened their demands, although there is no doubt the Phillies still paid a high price to acquire their new bullpen ace.
Tait is widely considered a top-100 prospect, ranked 50th by Baseball America, 51st by Baseball Prospectus, and 56th by MLB Pipeline. As BA notes, he is their first top-100 prospect to be traded ahead of the deadline since 2023, and the highest ranked since 2022. Whether or not the Twins achieved their reported goal of landing two top-100 prospects in exchange for Duran depends on which lists you’re looking at; Abel is currently no. 92 on MLB Pipeline’s list, but he dropped off BA’s most recent post-draft rankings and fell off BP’s list after 2023. For what it’s worth, neither Tait nor Abel was included on FanGraphs’ latest top 100 update.
Looking beyond the arbitrary “top 100” cutoff, however, what matters is that the Twins received a pair of highly talented young players, of a caliber rarely seen moved in deadline deals. Tait is a bat-first catcher with big power and a strong throwing arm, but the rest of his defensive game needs significant work. Still, the bat has enough potential that he could succeed in the majors (presumably at first base or DH) even if he doesn’t stick behind the plate. He lit up the competition in the Dominican Summer League and the Florida Complex League in his first two professional seasons, but he hasn’t looked quite as powerful in Single-A and High-A this year. That said, he’s only 18 years old, which is young for his level, and scouting reports matter far more than his numbers right now. Dan Hayes of The Athletic notes that the Twins have “very good” internal grades on Tait.
Abel might not have quite as much upside as he once did, but he has looked much better this year than he did in 2023 or ’24. He has a 2.31 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 13 Triple-A starts, both his best numbers at any level in any year of his professional career. While he looked overmatched at times in his first six MLB starts for the Phillies, his mediocre overall numbers are the combination of three strong starts and three disappointing outings. He’s not there quite yet, but he showed signs that he could soon become a capable big league starting pitcher. Whether that’s a mid-rotation or back-end starter is now up to the Twins, but he has good raw stuff and a deep arsenal for their development and coaching staffs to work with.
Heading into play today, the Phillies ranked 24th in MLB with a 4.33 bullpen ERA and 15th with a 3.82 bullpen SIERA. Their strong starting rotation has helped to limit the bullpen’s workload (their bullpen ranks last in innings pitched), but still, it’s not hard to understand why Dombrowski was looking for a significant upgrade. Philadelphia’s longest tenured reliever, hard-throwing lefty José Alvarado, will be out until mid-August serving a PED suspension, and he won’t be eligible to pitch in the playoffs. Jordan Romano, the team’s primary bullpen acquisition of the offseason, has struggled to a 6.81 ERA. No one knows what to expect from David Robertson, who did not sign with a team until earlier this month. He remained one of the best relievers in baseball at age 39 in 2024, but he essentially started his spring training last week. Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm have provided manager Rob Thomson with a couple of reliable back-end options, but as the Phillies battle with the Mets for the NL East crown and look to contend for a World Series, it’s clear to see why they identified Duran as a major difference-maker.
As for the Twins, there is now no question they are in full sell mode, having dealt Duran and Chris Paddack, whom they sent to the Tigers on Monday. This makes it seem all the more likely that they will soon trade Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, and Danny Coulombe, all of whom are set to hit free agency at the end of the season. However, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand notes that Minnesota is now far more likely to hold on to Jax, their other controllable relief ace. Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune echoed Feinsand’s statement, writing that the Twins have not “ruled out” trading Jax, but their asking price could now be astronomical – perhaps too high for anyone to meet.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to report that the two sides were closing in on a trade, while Bob Nightengale of USA Today was the first to report that the Twins would receive Tait and Abel in exchange for Duran. ESPN’s Jeff Passan was the first to confirm the agreement.
Photo in article courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images.
Phillies Interested In Eugenio Suarez
The Phillies have had some talks with the Diamondbacks about third baseman Eugenio Suarez, according to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. It isn’t clear whether or not the discussions are anything more than due diligence on the Phillies’ part, but Philadelphia can now be added to a lengthy list of teams with some degree of interest in the slugger.
The New York Post’s Jon Heyman raised Suarez as a “potential fit” for the Phils yesterday, since the club is in need of third base help with Alec Bohm on the 10-day injured list. Putting Suarez in between the powerful left-handed hitting duo of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber would only add more balance and pop to the lineup, and make it even harder for opposing pitchers and managers to navigate through what is already a dangerous Philadelphia lineup.
Since Bohm is expected back from his fractured rib roughly halfway through August, however, Lauber notes that adding Suarez would create a bit of a positional logjam. Harper and Schwarber have the first base and DH spots locked down, so there would be nowhere for Bohm and Suarez to both play unless Schwarber was moved into left field. Harper doesn’t appear to be a candidate for a return to outfield work, as Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski stated last month.
Speculatively, the Phillies could clear space by trading Bohm himself, though such a deal would naturally be trickier since Bohm is on the IL. It is possible Bohm could head to Arizona as part of a Suarez trade package, as adding Bohm would help the D’Backs fill some at-bats at first base since Josh Naylor has been traded, and Bohm could provide cover at third base if Jordan Lawlar runs into more struggles at the MLB level. Bohm is arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter, so this extra year of team control might appeal to the Diamondbacks or other teams looking for corner infield help.
Since the Diamondbacks are also shopping several of their outfielders, it is possible the two sides could work out a multi-player deal that would see the Phillies add both Suarez and some outfield help in one fell swoop. Lauber writes that Arizona was scouting Mick Abel‘s most recent Triple-A start, which again could be due diligence or a signal that the D’Backs (known to be pursuing pitching) have a particular interest in Abel as a trade chip.
Dombrowski is no stranger to bold trades, so the Phillies can’t be entirely ruled out for Suarez until the dust settles. Money won’t be a factor, as the Phils have already shown they’re more than willing to break the bank in pursuit of a championship. Suarez is still owed roughly $5.2MM of his $15MM salary for the 2025 season before he heads into free agency. Since the Phillies are already over the highest level ($301MM) of luxury tax penalization, they’ll pay a 110% tax on every dollar spent beyond the $301MM threshold, so Suarez’s real price tag for the Phillies will be more than $10.5MM.
Phillies Reportedly Targeting Controllable Relievers
The Phillies are known to be focused on bullpen help, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski admitting as much last month. Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports that the club is showing more willingness to pay a higher prospect cost in order to get more controllable arms.
As noted by Gelb, this is in contrast to the club’s recent bullpen pursuits. At last year’s deadline, the Phils acquired Carlos Estévez, a rental. This winter, their big addition was grabbing Jordan Romano on a one-year deal. They appear to be dreaming a bit bigger ahead of this year’s deadline. Gelb reports that they are expecting the Twins to sell and have their eyes on Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax.
The Twins aren’t surefire sellers just yet. At 45-47, they are only three games out of a playoff spot. However, the payroll appears to be tight, as they were limited to fairly modest moves in the winter. They signed Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe and Ty France to one-year deals worth a combined $10.25MM. With ownership exploring a sale of the franchise, the front office may not get much more wiggle room to add this summer.
Even if they fall back in the standings and move more clearly into seller mode, they wouldn’t have to trade Durán or Jax. Both pitchers can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons beyond the current campaign. Both could be key parts of the club’s bullpen plans next year and in 2027 as well.
Durán is making $4.125MM and Jax $2.365MM. Both players will be due raises for next year but should still be underpaid. Jax has been dominant throughout his career, with a 2.39 earned run average, 30.9% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 63.9% ground ball rate. Jax also has strong numbers, particularly dating back to the start of last year. Over the 2024 and 2025 seasons, he has a 2.77 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 49.6% ground ball rate.
Talented relievers who reach free agency can earn eight-figure salaries, so there’s lots of value here for the Twins. However, if they decide this isn’t their year, there would be an argument for making moves. Reliever performance can be volatile and injuries are quite common nowadays. Though holding Durán and Jax for the future would be understandable, it’s a path that does have some risk.
For the Phillies, acquiring one or both of those arms would bolster their bullpen for this year and potentially for the future as well. Romano is a free agent after this season, so it could proactively address next year’s bullpen and perhaps give the club one less thing to do in the winter.
But as mentioned, going this route would require the club to give up more notable prospect talent. Gelb suggests that Andrew Painter is still unavailable but the club might not have any other truly untouchable prospects.
Aidan Miller gets a specific mention in the piece as an attractive guy who could be moved. The 27th overall pick of the 2023 draft, Miller just turned 21 years old but is already performing well in Double-A. In 64 games at that level, he has just seven home runs but has a 14.1% walk rate and has stolen 31 bases while holding down the shortstop position.
That combination of skills makes him a consensus top 50 prospect in the sport. It’s rare for those kinds of players to be available but perhaps the Phils have the right amount of urgency. They have been in the playoffs a lot lately with a strong roster but without getting a ring. Many of their core players are now between 32 and 36 years old, so perhaps the club wants to strike before the aging curve slopes more steeply.
Gelb mentions that the Phils probably wouldn’t flip someone like Mick Abel for a rental but it doesn’t seem like he’s completely unavailable. He also mentions Aroon Escobar and Eduardo Tait as prospects who could be of note in the coming weeks. Hendry Mendez, Alex McFarlane and Jean Cabrera get mentioned as intriguing potential secondary pieces.
Gelb also floats Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians as a fit similar to Durán or Jax. Clase has been Cleveland’s closer for years now but the club is in a tight spot this season. They are a bit behind the Twins, currently at 43-48 and 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. Clase is making just $4.5MM this year, $6MM next year and then there are two $10MM club options with $2MM buyouts.
Clase hasn’t been quite as dominant this year. His 22.9% strikeout rate is a couple of ticks below his 24.6% career rate. His 45.8% ground ball rate is still above average but far off his 58.8% career rate. Regardless, he has still been quite good and there’s loads of value in his contract. The Guardians could certainly keep him around beyond this campaign, though if the Phils are dangling notable prospects, they will probably answer the phone.
Another consideration of the Phils is shaking up their outfield, according to Gelb, including trading from their major league outfield. Both Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler have been somewhat disappointing at times this year and it’s been previously reported that the club may want to make room for prospect Justin Crawford.
Crawford is slashing .339/.410/.444 in Triple-A this year, despite only having two home runs. He won’t keep a .417 batting average on balls in play forever but he has an 11% walk rate and his speed has helped him steal 28 bases and run down balls in center field. Kepler, meanwhile, is hitting .213/.307/.378 on the season. Marsh started slow but has been heating up and is now at .265/.341/.378 for the whole year. He’s also controlled for two more seasons after this one, while Kepler is signed to a one-year deal.
That means Kepler is probably viewed as more disposable by the Phils but Marsh is surely more capable of bringing back a return that could help elsewhere on the roster. Kepler is making $10MM but Marsh just $3MM. Marsh is also a somewhat-capable center fielder, which is a weak spot in the league-wide market. His defense isn’t strong up the middle but a team without better options might take a chance on him.
If the Phils think Crawford can immediately come up and hit major league pitching, there’s an argument to flipping someone and bringing him up, though it’s a risky plan. Even the best prospects in the world can struggle when first exposed to the big leagues, so it would certainly be a gamble.
It’s an interesting dynamic with the deadline approaching. Dombrowski has a gunslinger reputation and there are some signs that his trigger finger is getting itchy. On the other hand, the flip side of the Phils having a veteran-laden roster is that they will need young players to step up in the near future. Dealing prospects would cut into Philadelphia’s ability to organically shift from one era to another but perhaps they focused enough on the present to make a bold move.
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Phillies Moving Taijuan Walker To Short Relief
For the second time in as many months, the Phillies are pulling right-hander Taijuan Walker from their starting rotation. Paul Casella of MLB.com reported this morning that Walker’s being moved to the bullpen permanently in a move that will clear the way for right-hander Mick Abel to be promoted to the majors and fill in for Aaron Nola in the starting rotation. Matt Gelb of The Athletic added further context to that reporting, noting that Walker is specifically moving to a one-inning, setup role in order to help bolster the club’s late-inning mix. Meanwhile, Gelb notes that Abel will get at least two starts for the Phillies before Nola’s return, which the club currently expects to occur near the middle of June.
It’s a big change for Walker, who has just ten career relief appearances and has served exclusively as a long relief arm in those outings. Gelb notes that Walker has never pitched on back-to-back days before in his career, an adjustment that will surely take some getting used to for the right-hander. Still, it’s understandable for Philadelphia to want to try him in this new role given the state of their pitching staff. Abel is knocking on the door of the majors as a potential rotation option with top prospect Andrew Painter potentially not all that far behind, and the Phillies’ rotation is already full when healthy. Without much of a path to a long-term rotation role in the cards for Walker anyway, it makes sense for the club to try him in a new role.
Given that the Phillies recently lost Jose Alvarado to a PED suspension, saw Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez depart in free agency over the winter, and have watched Jordan Romano struggle badly this year after being signed to serve as the club’s closer, there’s perhaps no greater need on the roster than that for a high leverage relief arm to join Matt Strahm in supporting Romano. Walker will now be tasked with doing just that, and Gelb notes that he seemed intrigued by the idea after his last start.
“If I have one inning to blow it out, whatever it is, I feel like my stuff would play up just a little bit more,” Walker said last week, as relayed by Gelb. “Knowing that I got one inning, just let it eat.”
Walker’s departure from the rotation makes room for Abel to join the mix, at least temporarily. The right-hander made his big league debut earlier this season in a spot start and was extremely impressive, tossing six scoreless innings with nine strikeouts against zero walks. The Phillies were clearly intrigued by that dazzling performance, and now he’ll get to make at least a couple additional starts. Abel is set to join the club to start Thursday’s game against the Blue Jays, and Gelb notes that after that he’ll be in line to start against the Cubs next week. Those offenses are far more impressive than the Pirates lineup Abel dominated in his big league debut, so these next pair of outings will be a major test for the 23-year-old right-hander.
Phillies Place Aaron Nola On IL With Ankle Sprain
The Phillies announced that they have placed right-hander Aaron Nola on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 15th, due to a sprained right ankle. Right-hander Daniel Robert has been recalled to take his roster spot. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com was among those to report that prospect Mick Abel will be promoted to make his major league debut but only to make a spot start on Sunday. After that, he will be optioned to Triple-A and Taijuan Walker will take Nola’s rotation spot. In other Philly news, manager Rob Thomson relayed that prospect Moisés Chace will undergo Tommy John surgery. Lochlahn March of the Philadelphia Inquirer was among those to pass that along.
Per March, Nola injured his ankle prior to his recent start in Cleveland. He went on to allow four earned runs in five innings in that game. His next start was even worse, as Nola allowed nine earned runs over 3 2/3 innings against the Cardinals on Wednesday.
Perhaps the ankle injury provides an explanation for those outings but Nola was also struggling before that, with a 4.61 earned run average over his first seven starts this year. Though for what it’s worth, he was building a bit of momentum. On April 27th, he pitched seven innings of one-run ball against the Cubs, then six scoreless against the Diamondbacks on May 3rd.
Whether it’s due to the ankle or not, Nola now has a 6.16 ERA on the year. His 23.6% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 44.6% ground ball rate are all decent numbers, but 11 home runs have pushed more runs across the plate. SIERA, which expects home run rate to normalize, has Nola at 3.66 this year. However, home runs have always been a part of Nola’s game, so that might not be the best metric in this specific instance. The Phillies haven’t provided an estimate for how long they expect Nola to be out but it seems he will miss at least a few turns.
Nola’s injury will allow Walker to return to the rotation. He started his season with six great starts, posting a 2.54 ERA in those. But when Ranger Suárez was ready to come off the IL, someone had to go. Walker got bumped to the bullpen as the Phils ran with a rotation of Suárez, Nola, Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo and Cristopher Sánchez. Walker made two relief appearances, each three innings long. The first was scoreless but he allowed three earned runs in the second one, which came in relief of Nola on Wednesday.
He’ll retake a rotation spot next week, but Abel will get to make his major league debut in the interim. A former first-round pick, Abel’s prospect stock has dropped a bit due to some inconsistent control. From 2021 to 2024, he tossed 375 minor league innings and struck out 26.9% of batters faced but he also gave out walks at a 13.3% clip, leading to a 4.75 ERA.
Despite the rough edges, the Phils added him to their 40-man roster in November, to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. The early results are encouraging this year. He has a 2.53 ERA through eight Triple-A starts, with a 26.6% strikeout rate and 49.2% ground ball rate. His 9.9% walk rate is still a bit higher than par but an improvement for him. He’ll get a chance to make a brief debut this weekend.
As for Chace, it’s obviously an unfortunate blow for him. Acquired from the Orioles in last summer’s Gregory Soto trade, Chace is one of the club’s top pitching prospects and a fringe top 100 guy. He wasn’t on every list but FanGraphs had him at #74 coming into the year, ESPN at #90 and Baseball Prospectus put him in their #101 slot.
Like Abel, Chace was given a 40-man spot in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He started this year at Double-A and could have worked his way to Triple-A or even the majors during the 2025 season. That will now be on pause for a long time, as he should be rehabbing until the summer of 2026. The Phils could recall him and place him on the major league 60-day injured list at some point if they so choose. Doing so would open a 40-man spot but would also require Chace to start earning big league pay and service time.
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