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Big Hype Prospects: Thompson, Rodriguez, Pratto, Perez, Bello

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This week, we take one last check-in on an uber-prospect then turn our attention to new fast-risers.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Zack Thompson, 24, SP, STL (AAA)

44.1 IP, 11.37 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 4.67 ERA

The Cardinals recently announced Thompson will join the Major League roster, presumably to start one of the games this weekend. Reading the tea leaves, this might be a single-appearance arrival in the big leagues. He should eventually be a fairly regular member of the rotation at times during this season. Like fellow left-handed Cardinals pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore, Thompson’s individual pitches draw strong grades from scouts. However, the repertoire as a whole might leave something to be desired, especially since his fastball and curve don’t tunnel effectively. In other words, they look different out of his hand. That could partly explain his elevated Triple-A ERA despite strong strikeout and walk rates.

Liberatore, a 22-year-old former Rays farmhand, was dinged for a 5.54 ERA in three starts and generated just 6.1 percent swinging strikes. Scouts from multiple outlets have noted the similarities between these left-handed starters. We’ll see if Thompson can make a stronger claim to Major League readiness.

Julio Rodriguez, 21, OF, SEA (MLB)

205 PA, 6 HR, 15 SB, .272/.322/.424

Through the first two weeks of the season, Rodriguez hit a miserable .154/.233/.179 with a 41.9 percent strikeout rate. He struggled, in part, with bad strike calls. Since then, the precocious prospect is batting .303/.346/.487 with all six of his home runs and 11 steals. His strikeout rate during that span is down to 25.9 percent and slowly improving as the season progresses. He’s rapidly establishing himself as one of the most dynamic players in the league.

The obvious next step in his development is improved plate discipline. Rodriguez drew a healthy number of walks in the minors last season, though that could have been a function of opponents working around him. Thus far, he’s proven especially susceptible to swinging outside of the zone. His early experience with egregious strike calls might have taken a mental toll. If he can improve to even a league average swing rate outside the zone, superstardom will be his.

Nick Pratto, 23, 1B, KC (AAA)

186 PA, 10 HR, 4 SB, .221/.349/.461

Prior to this season, Pratto was seen as ahead of teammate Vinnie Pasquantino. Now, it’s not so clear. Both players are first basemen with sufficient thump to make their presence felt out of the designated hitter slot too. The trouble is the Royals entered 2022 with a logjam of cornermen and are resistant to setting aside their veterans. In particular, Carlos Santana has performed poorly since the start of 2020, batting just .203/.322/.311 in 1,061 plate appearances. Their loyalty in the face of contrary evidence is a factor in their 16-33 record.

While Pasquantino is having the spicier season, Pratto’s bat has come alive in the last two weeks. Over his last 59 plate appearances, he’s batting .217/.390/.565 with five home runs. He profiles as a slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber, one whose patience and penchant for fly ball contact will serve both as a strength (walks and home runs) and weakness (strikeouts and low batting average).

Eury Perez, 19, SP, MIA (AA)

38 IP, 13.26 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 3.79 ERA

Unless I’m mistaken, Perez is the youngest member of Double-A, and he’s absolutely thriving. A looming 6’ 8’’ on the bump, Perez has uncanny command for a player his size and generates swinging strikes with ease. To that end, he’s recorded an 18.8 percent swinging strike rate against Double-A competition. He has a traditional repertoire of mid-90s fastball, curveball, and changeup. His build remains youthful. Given his height, Perez will probably add 30 or more pounds within the next couple years.

The Marlins have carefully managed his workload, keeping him to between 18 and 21 batters faced in most starts. In all probability, we won’t see Perez in the Majors this season. He might, however, find his way to the doorstep in time for an early 2023 debut.

Brayan Bello, 23, SP, BOS (AAA)

17 IP, 13.76 K/9, 4.24 BB/9, 3.18 ERA

The Red Sox have a number of interesting starting pitcher prospects headlined by Bello. While their big-league rotation is solid, they desperately need reinforcements in the bullpen. Bello kicked off 2022 in Double-A where he posted a 1.60 ERA with 11.23 K/9 and 3.21 BB/9 in 33.2 innings. He’s hardly missed a beat since joining the Triple-A rotation. A slight uptick in walk rate is the only sign he’s been challenged. Bello features a three-pitch repertoire of above average offerings. His fastball sits in the upper-90s and could play up in relief. He also throws a tight slider and a wipeout changeup.

Bello is poised to immediately reinforce the Red Sox pitching staff, either by joining the bullpen directly or freeing Garrett Whitlock to resume a late-inning role.

Five More

Grayson Rodriguez (22): Rodriguez was 20 batters into what many (including me) believe was his final minor league start when a lat strain ended his outing a few batters early. Such injuries can be complex and difficult to rehab. He’ll likely be shut down for at least several weeks before a throwing program is considered.

Ethan Small (25): Small received his first cup of coffee last Monday. He’s a southpaw whose fastball and changeup blend together beautifully even if they lack the big velocity associated with this era. His third pitch, a slider, lags behind the others. With Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff sidelined, the Brewers might need Small again soon.

Taj Bradley (21): Bradley has built upon his breakout 2021 season with a mirror replica in Double-A. He’s posted a 2.20 ERA with 11.20 K/9 and 2.20 BB/9 in 41 innings. A promotion to Triple-A should be forthcoming, at which point he’ll become one of the youngest players at the level.

Gunnar Henderson (20): Speaking of young Double-A players on the cusp of reaching Triple-A, Henderson has put together an otherworldly .433/.500/.767 line over his last 30 plate appearances. Overall, he has more walks than strikeouts along with eight home runs and 12 steals in 200 plate appearances. A promotion is overdue.

Jordan Westburg (23): Although his overall performance hasn’t been as emphatic as Henderson’s, Westburg was just as hot since May 25. He’s batting .406/.486/.594 over his last 37 plate appearances. While Henderson appears to be mid-breakout, Westburg is merely showing modest skills growth.

Royals Release Kyle Zimmer

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NOVEMBER 22: The Royals announced Monday afternoon that they’ve placed Zimmer on release waivers.

NOVEMBER 19: The Kansas City Royals have added six players to their 40-man roster, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. Making the move to the 40-man roster are some highly touted players, namely catcher MJ Melendez, first baseman Nick Pratto, shortstop Maikel Garcia, and right-handed pitchers Jonathan Bowlan, Collin Snider, and Nathan Webb. Right-handed pitcher Kyle Zimmer has been designated for assignment in order to accommodate these transactions, as the team’s 40-man roster is now full.

The 30-year-old Zimmer was a mainstay on top prospect lists for years following his fifth overall selection in the 2012 amateur draft. Frequent injuries ultimately dampened the hype surrounding the talented right-hander, but a very encouraging showing at the Major League level in 2020 gave some hope for optimism. A move to the bullpen yielded promising results in 2020 but that wasn’t true for the two seasons surrounding it, as Zimmer struggled to command the strike zone in the Major leagues either season. All told, Zimmer carries a 5.19 ERA through 95 innings at the game’s highest level. Teams will likely be lining up to take a flyer on a player who has shown flashes of brilliance when healthy enough to take the mound.

In one of the more obvious selections of the day, MJ Melendez finds himself on the 40-man squad after a monstrous showing in the minors. The 22-year-old catcher had only once seen his name appear on a Top 100 prospect list, back before a dismal 2019 season dimmed his star considerably. A .285/.372/.628 showing in Double-A this year turned into an even better .293/.413/.620 line at Triple-A however, putting him right back on the map as one of the more promising prospects in baseball. Positive reviews for his defense and 41 home runs in a minor league season should lead to a Major League promotion for Melendez soon.

The left-handed Pratto practically mimicked Melendez’s 2021 performance en route to a no-doubt 40-man roster selection. The fourteenth overall pick in the 2017 draft, Pratto struggled to live up to the hype in 2019 before the canceled 2020 minor league season allowed him to revamp his approach. Between Double-A and Triple-A Pratto hit a robust .265/.385/.602, with 36 home runs and 12 steals (in 17 tries).

By placing Maikel Garcia on their roster the Royals are protecting a more unheralded member of their organization. The 21-year-old has yet to show up on prospect lists or hit for much power, but the shortstop did show promise across two levels this past season. Garcia managed a solid .291/.380/.405 slash line across at the A and high-A levels, swiping 35 bags in 41 tries along the way.

Like the other Royals players listed here, 24-year-old Jonathan Bowlan found success in the 2021 season by pitching to a 1.59 ERA at the Double-A level. Unfortunately, that success came across just 17 innings before an elbow injury and subsequent Tommy John surgery wiped out his season. Bowlan’s second-round pedigree and strong 2019 season was clearly enough for the Royals to worry a rival team would pounce on a Rule 5 draft selection, even if Bowlan spends a portion of 2022 recovering from surgery.

A 26-year-old reliever, Collin Snider wasn’t listed among the Royals top 30 prospects in the eyes of MLB.com. After a solid Double-A showing looked to be upping his stock, Snider ran into Triple-A trouble. Across both levels and 66 innings Snider turned in a 4.48 ERA, with strong groundball rates but a strikeout rate that nosedived after the promotion. Kansas City likely views Snider as a player who more closely resembles the player he was in Double-A and may soon entrust him with a Major League gig with additional seasoning.

Nathan Webb is another relief prospect who showed enough in the minors this past season to warrant protection by the Royals. The 34th-rounder punched out 89 batters in just 59 innings, and saw both his command and groundball tendencies improve following a promotion to the High-A level.  The resulting 3.94 is hardly elite, but rival teams may have been intrigued by a talented 24-year old who could pitch out of their bullpen for very little investment.

Royals’ Moore On 2022 Outlook, Top Prospects, Mondesi

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The 2021 season hasn’t gone as the Royals hoped, but general manager Dayton Moore made clear in a recent appearance on 610 AM’s Fescoe in the Morning Show that he still considers his club to be in a win-now mindset and will aim to put together a contending roster for the 2022 season (full audio link to the 18-minute interview).

Moore acknowledged being “extremely disappointed” with the team’s record this season, particularly given that the front office “all felt [the roster] would compete.” That said, Moore didn’t sound like an executive who was gearing up to make sweeping changes in the offseason. While the Royals will certainly look to add in various places — Moore listed the bullpen, in particular — the organization also expects a great deal of improvement from within.

“When I look at our team, there’s not a ton that you’re going to need to do, at least on paper,” said Moore. “…We expect some of our young starters to continue to evolve and get better. We’re going to hopefully be able to transition a position player or two into this lineup next year. We’re going to get a little bit younger, we’re going to have a little more speed on this team. … We’re going to be disciplined with what we do, but we’re going to rely on young players that are going to come up and be better.”

The Royals have an enviable crop of young starting pitching, as Moore referenced. Each of Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar and Kris Bubic has been ranked as a top-100 prospect at some point in recent years, and all four have gotten their feet wet in the big leagues already. Kansas City also has last summer’s No. 4 overall draft pick, lefty Asa Lacy, working his way through the system. Command has been an issue for Lacy thus far in Class-A Advanced, but he’s also fanned a third of his opponents through 52 frames. Twenty-one-year-old Angel Zerpa breezed through Class-A Advanced, meanwhile, before running into some early struggles in his first Double-A action.

Of course, the mention of “transitioning a position player or two” into the lineup seems like a clear reference to uber-prospect Bobby Witt Jr., the No. 2 overall pick from the 2019 draft who has emerged as one of baseball’s brightest prospects. But Moore is also surely referencing another former first-round pick, first baseman Nick Pratto.

Both Witt and Pratto have laid waste to Double-A and Triple-A pitching alike in 2021. Witt, 21, posted a .295/.369/.570 slash with 16 homers and 14 steals in 61 Double-A games before jumping to Triple-A and hitting .283/.328/.550 through his first 13 games. Pratto delivered similar dominance at the plate in Double-A (.271/.404/.570 in 61 games) before jumping to Triple-A at the same time. Like Witt, he hasn’t missed a beat in Omaha, raking at a .271/.379/.646 clip so far.

It’s always possible that the Royals will call on one or both promising youngsters by season’s end, although Moore spoke of exercising patience with each prospect after the scratched 2020 season and an abbreviated run through the minors so far in ’21. Asked specifically about the duo, Moore simply suggested that both need to “keep doing what they’re doing” and accrue more experience in the top minor league level of the system. That said, Moore also suggested that once players are promoted to Triple-A, “they really have an opportunity to force your hand.”

Perhaps most interestingly g of all from Moore, however, was his surprisingly candid assessment of oft-injured shortstop Adalberto Mondesi. While Moore emphasized that the club feels Mondesi is still a part of its future, he also acknowledged that Mondesi may not be the everyday cornerstone the team once envisioned.

“No, you can’t,” Moore candidly replied when asked if the team could count on Mondesi as an everyday player. “We love Mondy to death. … I think when we put this team together, we look at it like, ’Holy cow, if Mondy’s healthy, and he’s a part of the team, it’s going to be really exciting and really impactful in a lot of different ways: defensively, offensively, speed-wise.’ There’s a lot he can do.

“But I think we’re learning that we’re going to have to manage his workload. He may not be a guy that plays more than 100 games a year, best-case scenario. Hopefully he exceeds that expectation, but as somebody who’s responsible for putting together a 26-man roster, we’ve got to look at ways to supplement and perhaps be more balanced, if he’s not a part of it. If he is, that’s great. We’re certainly not going to release him. We’re going to continue to stay with him, obviously. But we’ve got to make sure we put that roster together in ways that protect us. … We can’t, obviously, count on him as an everyday player.”

It’s rare to see a GM speak with such candor about someone who’s long been viewed as a key player. Of course, those comments aren’t any sort of indication that the team plans to move on from Mondesi, nor should we necessarily expect Kansas City to spend significantly on a middle-infield upgrade over the winter. The Royals also have a shortstop-capable infielder in Nicky Lopez, and the aforementioned Witt Jr. has played all of his professional games so far at shortstop, save for eight appearances at the hot corner in 2021. Perhaps the Royals will deem it worthwhile to add a solid utilityman who can deepen the bench and help cover some games at the shortstop position as needed. Based on Moore’s comments, that very role could eventually be one in which Mondesi finds himself — an oft-used but also oft-rested player who can fill in at multiple spots around the diamond.

Mondesi aside, the broader takeaway from Moore’s comments are that while the 2021 season hasn’t gone as hoped, the club remains committed to putting a winner on the field as soon as 2022. That likely points to another offseason of some modest additions in free agency and via trade, as the Royals continue to wait on the emergence of their next core group.

Royals, First-Rounder Nick Pratto Agree To Deal

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The Royals and first-round pick Nick Pratto have agreed to a deal, pending a physical, report William Boor and Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. Pratto, the 14th overall selection, will sign for $3.45MM – slightly below the $3,727,600 slot value of the pick.

“We are extremely excited to have drafted Nick Pratto and confident we will sign him at the appropriate time,” said Royals general manager Dayton Moore. “We remain in the signing process and nothing is complete at this time.”

Pratto is both a high school first baseman and a pitcher, but the Royals drafted the 18-year-old California native as as position player. Thanks to his offensive abilities, Pratto ranked as the 13th-best player going into this year’s draft, according to both Keith Law of ESPN and Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen (17th) and Baseball America (24th) also regarded the soon-to-be former USC commitment as a first-round talent entering the proceedings, with each of the aforementioned prospect gurus praising the lefty-swinging Pratto’s bat. Additionally, Pratto offers “very advanced” defense at first, per BA.

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