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Big Hype Prospects: Meyer, Pratto, Ruiz, Greene, Cowser

By Brad Johnson | July 15, 2022 at 3:05pm CDT

This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll check in with a few recent and upcoming promotees along with a smattering of others.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Max Meyer, 23, SP, Marlins
AAA: 58 IP, 10.09 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 3.72 ERA

Meyer is poised for his first taste of the Majors on Saturday, just ahead of the All-Star Break. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored at the time his promotion was announced, the northpaw has made short work of minor league opponents at all stops. His ascent has not been without caveat. Some commentators worry about his ability to hold down a rotation role in the Majors for three reasons. The first is easiest to dismiss as unnecessary fretting. At 6’0’’, Meyer is slightly undersized which can presage an inability to tolerate 180-inning workloads. That said, there are plenty of “short” pitchers in baseball history, most notably Pedro Martinez.

The second and third issues are a bit more worrisome. They tie together, too. Meyer’s fastball command isn’t as sharp as his walk rates suggest. He’s gotten away with using it in the zone in the minors, but he could run into some trouble in the Majors. He relies almost exclusively on his fastball and an elite slider, a combination which often portends a future in the bullpen. That said, lower caliber pitchers like Brad Keller and Brady Singer have managed mid-rotation quality results with the same repertoire. We’ve also seen a few others like Spencer Strider thrive this season while using a different two-pitch repertoire.

Nick Pratto, 23, 1B, Royals
AAA: 337 PA, 17 HR, 8 SB, .240/.373/.484

Like many of his power-hitting Major League colleagues, Pratto got off to a slow start this season before eventually finding his stride. The Royals have promoted him for a series in Toronto in which they’ve infamously left 10 players south of the Canadian border. As such, his debut might be short-lived.

Pratto is a classic patient, left-handed slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber. Like the upcoming Home Run Derby participant, Pratto runs a mid-teens walk rate while striking out in around 30 percent of plate appearances. He makes up for so little contact by punishing those with which he does connect. Nearly half of his batted balls are flies and over 20 percent of those leave the yard. Per a home run calculator I’ve developed, Pratto projects for 33 home runs per 600 plate appearances. While he’s shown a willingness to run, he has below average speed. Like Schwarber, Pratto will probably be a volatile performer whose carrying trait is slugging.

Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, Padres
AA: 232 PA, 9 HR, 37 SB, .344/.474/.611
AAA: 142 PA, 4 HR, 23 SB, .315/.457/.477

Ruiz draws his hype from our friends in the fantasy baseball realm where his combination of power and speed could make him one of the most celebrated players in the game. From a real-world perspective, there are a lot of things that could go wrong. Starting on defense, he only has about a year of experience as an outfielder. His routes can be inconsistent or even circuitous. Fortunately, he has enough speed to recover while he learns the position. Speed doesn’t guarantee eventual mastery as an outfield defender. Roman Quinn is similarly fleet and still takes baffling routes to the ball at times.

Scouts also worry about his hit tool. Prior to this season, Ruiz had consistently below-average plate discipline. He struggled with swinging strikes, strikeouts, and consistency of contact. Notably, he’s produced 13.9 percent walk and 17.4 percent strikeout rates this season across two levels. His swinging-strike rate has also improved. Perhaps a more selective approach has yielded better contact results (I’m still awaiting comment from my sources). Regardless, speed is his carrying trait. Nabbing 60 bases (69 attempts) in 374 plate appearances is seriously impressive work.
I’m reminded of Michael A. Taylor, an outfielder who, at his peak, occasionally hit for power, often stole bases, but never quite made enough contact to stick as a regular. He’s carved out a nice career based on gold glove caliber center field defense. As noted above, Ruiz will need to improve considerably to match Taylor on defense. The raw tools are there.

Riley Greene, 21, OF, Tigers
MLB: 109 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .255/.358/.340

Greene’s prospect eligibility will soon expire. His first taste of the Majors has yielded mixed results. On the one hand, he’s effectively working counts. His 21.1 percent strikeout and 7.9 percent swinging-strike rates exceed even the wildest hopes for his early-career performance. The swinging-strike rate, in particular, is a marked divergence from expectations.

On the other hand, Greene is supposed to be a power hitter. With just one home run, three doubles, and a triple to his name, he’s been one of the most punchless batters since his debut in mid-June. Only 19 players have a lower ISO over that span – mostly names like Geraldo Perdomo, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan.

Better times likely await ahead. Greene is making consistent hard and barreled contact. It’s also encouraging to see him make adjustments. He’ll need to continue to do so to correct for the biggest flaw in his profile – an over-50 percent ground ball rate. While he’s currently using a shift-proof all-fields approach, he’s the kind of hitter who could benefit from a more pull-centric profile.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, Orioles
High-A: 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
AA: 53 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .308/.491/.615

In a crowded Orioles system, a lot of attention is paid to Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall. However, Cowser is also a Top 50-caliber prospect who is quickly working his way towards a big league debut in early 2023. With a patient approach, good rate of contact, and a swing geared for high BABIPs, Cowser profiles as a top-of-the-lineup force. He produces premium line-drive rates while using an all-fields approach. A left-handed hitter, he won’t be as penalized by the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his right-handed hitting teammates. Yet, since he hits to all fields, he’ll still use the spacious left field pasture to splash doubles.

If Cowser has a shortcoming, it’s that he doesn’t consistently get to in-game power. As mentioned, his swing skews to low-angle contact. He produces plenty of well-hit balls, but his game is mostly geared around reaching base. In today’s MLB, you never know when a player will make an adjustment that unlocks another gear, but it’s not strictly necessary in Cowser’s case. The Orioles have plenty of mid-lineup bats penciled into their future lineups. However, they could use a leadoff hitter who works counts and jumps on mistakes in the zone.

Five More

Michael Massey, Royals (24 years old): Another temporary beneficiary of the Royals’ roster triage, Massey isn’t technically a hyped prospect. However, my best scouting resource has been talking him up for a full year as a future regular. While it isn’t the most exciting profile, he skews to line drive and “fliner” contact which helps him to run high BABIPs while also regularly hitting for extra bases. The elevated BABIP will be necessary if he’s to be an above average hitter – his plate discipline and contact skills are slightly below average. Defensively, he profiles as a utilityman who fits best at second base.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): With Shane Baz returning to the injured list due to an ominous elbow sprain, Perez is the last truly elite pitching prospect (Baz, Daniel Espino, and Grayson Rodriguez) left standing. The Marlins are carefully managing his workload – both by holding him to around 20 batters faced per appearance while using him every seven or eight days. He’s carved through Double-A competition and could probably more than hold his own in the Majors. He’s only 19 years and three months old, so Miami is taking the long view with his development.

Jordan Walker, Cardinals (20): Walker has yet to appear in this column for two simple reasons. His performance hasn’t merited effusive praise or words of caution. As one of the youngest players in Double-A, he’s batting .302/.392/.476 with seven home runs and 15 steals while demonstrating good strike zone judgment and a batted ball approach based around liners and ground balls. His light-tower power is handicapped by hitting too many grounders. It’s not a death blow to his presumed future as a top slugger. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are among the notable power hitters who skew to low-angle contact.

Mick Abel, Phillies (20): With the usual caveats about injury, Abel will be one of the most-hyped pitching prospects this time next year. He’s performed well though not exceptionally at High-A this season, producing a 4.23 ERA with 10.50 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9. Recently, he’s struggled with both home runs and walks. The Phillies have allowed him to pitch surprisingly deep into his starts. He often faces 24 or more batters, which is more than the average big leaguer. This workload has been mitigated with extra rest between starts.

Brayan Rocchio, Guardians (21): Since a four-hit, two-homer game at the end of June, Rocchio is batting .452/.500/.833 over his last 46 plate appearances. In his second stint at Double-A, he’s noticeably improved upon his walk and strikeout rates. He’s beginning to track as a shortstop whose defensive and offensive prowess will remind Guardians fans of Francisco Lindor. Including last season, he now has 506 plate appearances at Double-A. A promotion to Triple-A is almost certainly imminent.

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Baltimore Orioles Big Hype Prospects Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres St. Louis Cardinals Brayan Rocchio Colton Cowser Esteury Ruiz Eury Perez Jordan Walker Max Meyer Michael Massey Mick Abel Nick Pratto Riley Greene

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35 Comments

  1. padresfan111323

    3 years ago

    Bro woke up and chose violence just naming every single possible weakness for these guys

    7
    Reply
    • Curly Was The Smart Stooge

      3 years ago

      Spenser Strider may be the next real thing. The Braves have a way of working new pitchers into their rotation, as well as other young players, like Mike Harris, Austin Reilly, Acuna i.e.

      1
      Reply
      • RunDMC

        3 years ago

        Fangraphs did a nice write-up on the difference between Hunter Greene and Strider’s success, both having a plus-plus FB, but Strider finding much more success with a slider that looks a lot like his FB out of his hand before the movement. blogs.fangraphs.com/what-separates-spencer-strider…

        I am more impressed though by how well he consistently locates his FB in the bottom of the zone. Does he benefit from being 6’0″? I don’t know.

        1
        Reply
        • SalaryCapMyth

          3 years ago

          Thanks for the article, DMC

          Reply
    • gbs42

      3 years ago

      Negativity, okay, but “violence?”

      1
      Reply
      • Deadguy

        3 years ago

        Straight sarcasm lol. Like saying you woke up and chose to be serious

        1
        Reply
  2. 13Morgs13

    3 years ago

    Abel, and Painter excite me for the future. Also Phillies linked to pitching at 17 to add more to the farm

    Reply
    • VonPurpleHayes

      3 years ago

      It’s nice to be excited about the Phillies future. It’s a rare thing. I remember being excited about Cole Hamels back in the day. Not saying Abel or Painter will compare, but it’s great having hope.

      3
      Reply
  3. WolvesSufferer

    3 years ago

    Are right handers really called “Northpaws”? I laughed either way, and it makes sense obviously but I’ve never heard it used.

    8
    Reply
    • mlb1225

      3 years ago

      “A long time ago, there was this guy, maybe 100 years ago, and he was fighting around Philadelphia. And he was left handed, and his arm was facing toward New Jersey, and that’s South. And so natrually, they called him Southpaw. Southpaw, South Jersey, South Camden, Southpaw. You know what I mean?”

      5
      Reply
    • GONEcarlo

      3 years ago

      Gotta love Brad Johnson’s writing!

      Reply
  4. For Love of the Game

    3 years ago

    Probably should note that Riley Greene is 21 while the others are generally 23. I would like to see him hit for more power, but you can tell he belongs in the big leagues. He already has the speed, the defensive chops, and plate discipline. The hit tool and power were evident in the minors and they will develop as this young kid continues growing and adjusting.

    6
    Reply
    • Jerry Cantrell

      3 years ago

      Jordan Walker just turned 20 years old a couple of months ago.

      1
      Reply
      • For Love of the Game

        3 years ago

        Yes, and he has a bright future. But he’s in AA ball and Greene is already in MLB.

        1
        Reply
        • myaccount2

          3 years ago

          I’m slightly confused by the point you’re trying to make. Walker could be in the bigs by 21. He’s certainly nearing a AAA promotion.

          1
          Reply
    • tigerfan4ever

      3 years ago

      Greene hit a home run and a double in tonight’s loss to Cleveland, drove in three runs. He’s made quite a few highlight reel type of plays since his promotion as well. I believe he’s got superstar potential in the near future.

      1
      Reply
  5. thunderroad19

    3 years ago

    Pratto is also considered to be Gold Glove caliber at 1B. Not a premium defensive position of course, but good fielders are a plus anywhere on the field.

    1
    Reply
    • ARC 2

      3 years ago

      See the A’s they got gold glove Pasche as a great defensive CF but he can’t hit.

      Reply
      • myaccount2

        3 years ago

        Pache is bad offensively, sure; but gold glove-caliber D doesn’t automatically mean a player is bad at offense. It’s certainly better to have a player who is good at defense and bad at offense than one who is bad at defense and bad at offense.

        1
        Reply
  6. johnrealtime

    3 years ago

    What’s the name of your home run calculator? You gotta give it a name!

    Reply
  7. ARC 2

    3 years ago

    A’s GM Frost will trade for the struggling prospects like he hit a home run to only put another bad hitting player on the team. Please Frost stop being cheap and thinking you will a gem instead of getting a actual player worth picking up.

    1
    Reply
    • stymeedone

      3 years ago

      Frost has to work with the budget he has been given. He has no choice but to be frugal.

      1
      Reply
      • ARC 2

        3 years ago

        Frugal and trying to find some lost gem is 2 different things. So far he traded away 3 of the best players and nothing in return. Just like Sonny Gray and got back 2 injured players and a A ball prospect. Frost has no concept of picking good players just hoping to get lucky at a casino.

        2
        Reply
        • Steinbrenner2728

          3 years ago

          Yes, the “frugal” Kansas City Royals, Colorado Rockies, Cleveland Indians, Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Florida Marlins have made it to the World Series already yet “frugal” Billy Beane and Co. hasn’t yet sniffed a ALCS win or pennant… Michael Lewis has been laughing back to his own bank since “Moneyball” came out it looks like, lol.

          Reply
  8. RonDarlingShouldntBeInTheHallOfFame

    3 years ago

    Ruiz has looked great so far (minus 1 boneheaded SB attempt)..He’s swinging at everything right now, but even hitting pitches out of the zone hard..I’m expecting that he’ll learn more patience the longer he’s up..Reminds me of a young Soriano..who’s his idol btw..

    2
    Reply
  9. stymeedone

    3 years ago

    Cowser could be more valuable than any of the power hitters. There is nothing as scarce in MLB as a true leadoff hitter. Some one who hits for average, takes a walk, and can steal 30-40 bases, is much rarer than a 30 HR hitter. We used to have Willie Wilson, Tim Raines, Rickey Henderson. Even players like Tony Phillips, who didn’t run much, were true leadoff hitters. Virtually every team could use an upgrade at leadoff.

    3
    Reply
    • C Yards Jeff

      3 years ago

      @stymeedone; interesting take. Thanks. Yep, good lead off guys are priceless. When the Os drafted him, I thought for sure they’d tweak his launch angle but now ….. an Elias pick with a purpose maybe? IE leave his swing alone … and groom him for a lead off role?

      Reply
  10. whosehighpitch

    3 years ago

    If Meyer was not called up would this article even been written.

    Reply
    • mlb1225

      3 years ago

      Yes, this is an article series they’ve been putting out every Friday since April 29th.

      7
      Reply
  11. dshires4

    3 years ago

    Yes, the incident so “infamous” that nobody will remember how many players the Royals had to go to Toronto without by this time next year. So memorable.

    1
    Reply
  12. 2012orioles

    3 years ago

    Cowser seems like a potential Markakis. Still am devestated he didn’t resign with the Orioles

    Reply
    • Ra

      3 years ago

      Markakis demanded four years. Orioles only wanted to offer 3 following his neck surgery

      Reply
  13. BeansforJesus

    3 years ago

    I think “baffling” is a very apt description for how Roman Quinn plays the outfield. Much more polite than some of the reactions I’ve had to his in-game outfield play.

    Reply
  14. MarlinsFanBase

    3 years ago

    Alcantara and Lopez’s advice to Meyer:

    “Go watch Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. Nearly every game you pitch will be like that game. Be prepared to ‘Jack Morris’ it in every single one of your starts….and don’t hand the ball over to this bullpen. So, this offense will score you one run and this bullpen will blow any size lead.”

    1
    Reply
    • You Can Put It In The Books

      3 years ago

      By the time the Marlins front office realizes what you’re saying, Alcantra and Lopez will have used their bullets and/or be on the verge of surgery. Better hope they trade some of that pitching for a bat and a reliever!And soon…

      3
      Reply

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