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Royals Notes: Erceg, Massey, Blanco

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Lucas Erceg got his first legitimate run as a closer after the Royals acquired him from the A’s at last year’s deadline. The flamethrowing righty took to that role, working to a 2.88 earned run average while striking out 32% of opponents over 25 regular season innings. Erceg recorded 11 saves and six holds while only surrendering two leads. He went 3-3 on postseason save opportunities while tossing six innings of two-run ball in his first playoff action.

Despite Erceg’s excellent finish, the Royals made a significant move at the back of their bullpen this winter. They signed All-Star righty Carlos Estévez to a two-year, $22MM free agent deal. That appeared to be a fallback after the Royals missed in a couple bigger swings at an outfield acquisition. Estévez has been a closer between the Angels and Phillies over the past two seasons. His 57 saves since the start of 2023 ranks ninth in MLB.

The Royals haven’t made an official decision about who’ll take the ninth inning this year. It doesn’t seem there’ll be any animosity on Erceg’s part if the team defers to Estévez’s experience. “I don’t really care what my role is going to be,” Erceg told Anne Rogers of MLB.com. He praised GM J.J. Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro for giving him a heads-up that the organization was closing in on a deal with Estévez before the signing was announced. Erceg said his primary focus is on helping K.C. return to the postseason whether as a closer or in a leverage role in the seventh and eighth innings.

Kansas City has thrown a decent amount of resources at fixing a bullpen that was a major weakness in the first half of last season. They acquired Hunter Harvey from the Nationals last summer, but a back injury essentially tanked his second half. Harvey has battled myriad injuries over his career, but he’s currently healthy and ticketed for a setup role. Erceg could join him as a bridge to Estévez at the back end. They’re still a little light from the left side. Angel Zerpa and Sam Long are coming off productive seasons but don’t have huge bat-missing upside. It’s nevertheless a far stronger group than they carried into 2024.

Along with Estévez, Jonathan India was Kansas City’s other significant offseason acquisition. He’ll slot atop the lineup while potentially moving around the diamond defensively. Both India and incumbent second baseman Michael Massey are likely to get reps at third base and in left field in addition to their work at the keystone. They’ve each gotten starts in left field and at second base in the first week of camp, with India picking up an appearance at third base as well. Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star writes that they’re likely to continue alternating positions every few games this spring.

In one injury development, depth outfielder Dairon Blanco has been sidelined by soreness in his right Achilles. An MRI this week revealed calcification in the tendon, Quatraro told reporters (via the MLB.com injury tracker). That’ll shut Blanco down for a few days but shouldn’t be a major concern. The speedster stole 31 bases in 38 attempts over 88 games last season.

J.J. Picollo Discusses Royals Offseason Pursuits, Outfield Mix

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A year ago, the Royals had just put the finishing touches on an extension with budding superstar Bobby Witt Jr. that served as a capstone on the busiest and most aggressive offseason the club had put together in years. That strong offseason effort led to an 86-win season and a trip to the ALDS, where they ultimately fell to the AL champion Yankees in four games. After making the playoffs for the first time since they won the World Series back in 2015, the Royals entered this winter with heightened expectations.

The returns of Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen as well as the additions of Jonathan India and Carlos Estevez serve as the foundation of a strong offseason, but comments from owner John Sherman and GM J.J. Picollo relayed by Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star earlier today highlight that the club had bigger hopes for the offseason when it began. Sherman noted that the club made an effort to sign “marquee outfield bats” this winter and are continue to talk with some free agents, while Picollo elaborated further.

“That’s probably the one area in the two years we haven’t been able to reach our goal of getting that (offensive bat),” Picollo said, as relayed by Thompson. “It’s a little disappointing, but we can’t force teams to make trades they don’t want to make. We were active in the free-agent market; we just weren’t able to land the guys.”

Picollo and Sherman are alluding to the club’s failed pursuits of sluggers Jurickson Profar and Anthony Santander, who the club reportedly made two- and three-year offers to respectively before Profar went on to sign in Atlanta for three years while Santander headed to Toronto on a five-year pact. Either of those additions would’ve been a massive upgrade for an outfield mix that’s 79 wRC+ was tied with the White Sox for worst in the American League last year, but an external addition isn’t the only way the club can upgrade its offense in the outfield.

As Picollo notes, the addition of India can improve the offense, and it’s possible some of the club’s infielders can see regular time in the outfield this year as well. Picollo refers to sorting out where the club’s talent will play once the regular season begins as the “biggest challenge” facing the Royals as they head into Spring Training. Both India and Michael Massey are willing to play left field in 2025 and are under consideration for that role, while Maikel Garcia is under consideration for reps in center field as a potential platoon partner for Kyle Isbel. All three of those possible position changes have previously been reported, but Picollo’s comments made clear that a move to the outfield isn’t necessarily guaranteed for any one of those players.

“Jonathan (India) and Michael Massey both said they’re willing to play left field, which is great, but they are both infielders,” Picollo said. “So we need to see them out there in the outfield and see how they move around and figure out what is the best combination for us…it’s going to take time to figure out all the positions, which is different for us because we always valued the defense.”

If defense is the primary concern for the Royals when considering a potential move to the outfield for their infielders, Garcia has a far steeper hill to climb than either India or Massey. Not only is center field higher up on the defensive spectrum than left, but Isbel is one of the league’s most impressive defenders at the position with +10 Outs Above Average. Of course, Isbel’s right-handed complement at the position last year was Dairon Blanco, who turned in -1 OAA at the position and should be much easier for Garcia to surpass. Garcia, for his part, has never appeared in the outfield as a professional but rates well with the glove at third base, with +2 OAA.

It should be much easier for India and/or Massey to prove themselves viable in left. Their primary competition at the position currently appears to be MJ Melendez, who was among the league’s worst defenders in left field last year with a -6 OAA that ranked in just the ninth percentile among qualifying fielders. Neither India nor Massey has significant experience in the outfield, but both rank as average to plus defenders at second base and it’s easy to imagine at least one of them being an upgrade defensively over Melendez in left.

One other note from Picollo’s comments today that Thompson relays is that the Royals “would’ve liked” to add another left-handed pitcher to their roster this offseason. With southpaws Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic both already in the a rotation mix that runs six pitchers deep, it seems likely that any such addition would come in the bullpen. Angel Zerpa, Sam Long, Daniel Lynch IV, Noah Cameron, and Evan Sisk are the club’s left-handed options currently on the 40-man roster, though of that group only Zerpa and the out-of-options Long currently appear to be in line for a spot on the Opening Day roster. It wouldn’t be hard for the club to add a veteran arm to that mix even at this stage of the offseason, with Drew Smyly, Andrew Chafin, Jalen Beeks, and Ryan Yarbrough among the southpaws who remain available on the free agent market.

Jonathan India, Michael Massey Willing To Play Left Field For Royals

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Jonathan India spent the vast majority of his tenure with the Reds playing second base. Michael Massey has also been a primary second baseman throughout his first three seasons with the Royals. Now that India and Massey both play for Kansas City, Royals manager Matt Quatraro will have to be creative to get them both in the lineup. That could involve some platooning (Massey bats left-handed and India bats righty) and each spending some time at DH, but Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic suggest a third possibility: the outfield. According to Rosenthal and Sammon, India and Massey are both willing to try their hands at left field next season.

India has never played a defensive position other than second base in his career. He prepared for a multi-positional role with the Reds in 2024 when it looked like the team would have a logjam in the infield, but Cincinnati’s infield depth quickly diminished, and India ended up playing more second base than he had in any season since his rookie campaign. Massey has a couple of additional positions on his defensive resume, but that’s little more than a technicality. He played one game at third base in his rookie season and one inning in center field earlier this year.

Although second base is the position they both know best, neither has ever graded out as a particularly valuable defender at the keystone. However, both were above-average hitters in 2024. India showed off excellent plate discipline (12.6% walk rate, 108 wRC+), while Massey made tons of contact and hit for above-average power (.190 ISO, 102 wRC+). So, one can see why the Royals would like to get their bats in the lineup, even if it’s not at their natural position. Rotating between India and Massey in the DH spot is one way to accomplish that, but it’s not the ideal solution. For one thing, the Royals presumably want to keep the DH spot open for Salvador Perez on days when Freddy Fermin is catching. Furthermore, general manager J.J. Picollo would surely like to maintain as much flexibility as possible as he continues to look for upgrades to the lineup. Having some DH reps to work with could help him land a more impactful bat.

Anne Rogers of MLB.com reported earlier today that the Royals are looking for another hitter who can play the infield and the outfield. Yet, if India or Massey (or both) could be that guy, perhaps Picollo can focus on landing the best possible bat rather than prioritizing defensive flexibility. This team could certainly use the offensive boost. While the Royals pitching staff led the team to the playoffs in 2024, their hitters ranked 13th in runs scored, 14th in OPS, and 20th in wRC+. Their only notable addition to the lineup so far has been India.

When it comes to further additions, Rosenthal and Sammon suggest the Royals would prefer a left-handed bat. They mention Josh Rojas and Adam Frazier as two possibilities on the free agent market. However, neither Rojas nor Frazier has been an above-average hitter over the last two years. Perhaps, then, the Royals are more likely to turn to the trade block for an upgrade. Previous reports have suggested they’re looking for a middle-of-the-order bat on the trade market, although it’s not clear to whom that might refer. Once again, the more flexibility this team can get from guys like India and Massey, the more potential targets they can pursue in a trade.

Royals Option Nelson Velázquez

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The Royals announced a series of roster moves today. Infielder Michael Massey was reinstated from the injured list and the club selected the contract of infielder CJ Alexander. In corresponding moves, the club placed infielder/outfielder Adam Frazier on the 10-day injured list due to a right thumb strain and optioned outfielder Nelson Velázquez to Triple-A Omaha. To open a 40-man spot for Alexander, left-hander Jake Brentz was designated for assignment.

Velázquez, now 25, was acquired from the Cubs in a deadline trade last year with reliever José Cuas going the other way. It seemed like that deal was going to work out brilliantly for the Royals, as Velázquez hit 14 home runs in 40 games after the deal last year.

That seemed to set him up to play a prominent role in Kansas City going forward but it hasn’t played out that way. He has added eight more home runs this year but is slashing just .200/.274/.366 overall. Part of that could be his .237 batting average on balls in play but he’s also not squaring it up like last year. He had a 21.4% barrel rate in 2023 but that figure is down to 8.8% this year. His average exit velocity has dropped by almost three miles per hour. His hard hit rate is down more than ten points and his infield fly ball rate has more than doubled.

The Royals have been good overall this year, currently at 42-35 and just half a game outside of a playoff spot. However, their outfield has been their weakest link, something that MLBTR’s Steve Adams looked at last month. Velázquez is a poor fielder and doesn’t provide value on the basepaths, so the drop-off at the plate has made him a big drawback on the roster this year.

He’ll head to Omaha to try to get things back on track for now, though this move could also have implications for him down the line. He came into this season with his service time count at one year and 13 days, meaning he would have finished the campaign at 2.013 if he had stayed up for the entirety. If this assignment lingers for more than a few weeks, it will push back his trajectory to free agency and/or arbitration. Coincidentally, Cuas also struggled with his new club and was designated for assignment by the Cubs, getting claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays over the weekend.

As for Alexander, he gets to the majors just before his 28th birthday, which is coming up in July. A 20th-round pick of Atlanta in 2018, he came to the Royals via the 2022 trade that also sent Drew Waters to Kansas City. He is hitting .323/.369/.555 in Triple-A this year, which is at least partially inflated by a .400 batting average on balls in play, but is impressive nonetheless.

He has played all four corner spots this year, but more third base than anywhere else. He is in the lineup at the hot corner tonight with Maikel Garcia having been moved over to second base and Massey in the designated hitter slot. Massey will stick in the DH spot for now, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com on X. He landed on the IL last month due to a low back ligament sprain and says he feels good enough to swing a bat but not take the field. With Massey and Frazier both unable to play second, perhaps Garcia will get regular time there with Alexander at third, though Garcia could also go back to the hot corner with Nick Loftin and Garrett Hampson taking some time at the keystone.

To get Alexander onto the 40-man, Brentz has been bumped off. The 29-year-old lefty had an encouraging major league debut back in 2021, making 72 appearances with a 3.66 earned run average. His 13.3% walk rate was quite high but he struck out 27.3% of batters faced and kept 49% of balls in play on the ground.

Unfortunately, he’s had a challenging time since then. He landed on the injured list early in 2022 and ultimately required Tommy John surgery that summer. He was non-tendered at the end of that season and re-signed on a two-year deal. He started a rehab assignment in August of 2023 but was shut down with a lat strain, unable to return to the big league club.

Here in 2024, he suffered a Grade 2 left hamstring strain in the middle of March, putting him back on the IL to start the season. He started a rehab assignment about a month later and was optioned to Omaha when reinstated off the IL.

The results have been abysmal thus far, as he has a 12.71 ERA through 17 innings on the farm this year. He has struck out 15 opponents but given out 30 walks, hit nine batters with pitches and thrown two wild pitches as well.

Some rust after so much missed time is understandable but the Royals clearly felt this was too much. They will now have a week to trade Brentz or pass him through waivers. He still has a full slate of options and could perhaps appeal to a club that believes in the stuff and has enough patience to let him get back on track.

If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he has more than three years of service time and can therefore elect free agency instead of accepting an outright assignment. However, since he has less than five years of service time, doing so would mean forfeiting what remains of his salary. As part of that aforementioned two-year deal he signed with the Royals, he is making $1.05MM this year with more than half a million left to be paid out. He presumably wouldn’t want to walk away from that money and would likely accept an outright assignment if no other club wants to grab him off waivers.

Royals Place Michael Massey On 10-Day Injured List

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The Royals placed second baseman Michael Massey on the 10-day injured list today (retroactive to May 25) due to a ligament sprain in his lower back.  Infielder Nick Loftin was called up from Triple-A Omaha in the corresponding move.

This is the second time Massey’s bad back has sent him to the IL, as his season debut was delayed until April 19 because of a similar injury that cropped up during Spring Training.  Massey made an early exit from Friday’s 8-1 victory over the Rays due to back soreness and he didn’t play yesterday, so K.C. manager Matt Quatraro felt a roster move was necessary.

“We are at a point where he wasn’t feeling great today.  It’s been a couple of days and we have another day game tomorrow,” Quatraro told the Kansas City Star’s Jaylon Thompson and other reporters.  “We got to make a move to kind of put him on a course to get better and is more sustainable than going day to day.”

It would seem like Massey will miss longer than the minimum 10 days in order to fully rest up and try to put the back problem behind him, and he might also seek out a specialist to see if any longer-term solution is necessary.  Loftin and Adam Frazier handled second base duty during Massey’s previous IL stint, and that figures to be the case again, even if it will be hard for the duo to match Massey’s underrated all-around production.

One of the unsung stars of the Royals’ unexpected surge into contention, Massey has hit .294/.306/.529 with six home runs over 110 plate appearances.  Between this 124 wRC+ and solidly above-average glovework at second base, Massey has generated 0.8 fWAR in his 29 games this season, already topping his 0.7 fWAR over 181 games in 2022-23.  While his modest hard-hit ball rates and .309 xwOBA indicate that some regression is inevitable, Massey has drastically reduced his strikeout rate from his first two MLB seasons, and is hitting for much more power.

AL Central Notes: Royals, Cease, Tigers

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The Royals’ Opening Day roster has begun to come into focus, as the Royals recently optioned first baseman Nick Pratto, outfielder Drew Waters, and catcher Austin Nola to the minor leagues. Those positional cuts from camp helped to clarify the club’s bench mix, as manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) yesterday that infielder Nick Loftin and outfielder Dairon Blanco have both made the club’s Opening Day roster. Blanco will slot into a reserve outfielder role behind MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, Hunter Renfroe, and Nelson Velazquez. Meanwhile, Loftin will step into a bench role previously ticketed for veteran Adam Frazier, who is set to become the club’s Opening Day second baseman with Michael Massey expected to begin the season on the injured list due to lower back tightness.

It’s an unfortunate development for Massey, who celebrated his 26th birthday earlier this week. The infielder was the club’s everyday option at the keystone last year and performed well on defense but struggled with the bat throughout the season. The youngster showed signs of life in the second half, however, slashing a respectable .250/.285/.458 with 11 home runs in 229 trips to the plate over his final 60 games in 2023. That display left him in line to receive the lion’s share of playing time at second once again this year even after the Royals added Frazier and Garrett Hampson in free agency. Now that Massey is set to begin the season on the shelf, however, Frazier will have the opportunity to play his way into a larger role early in the season. The 32-year-old veteran has been a roughly league average bat consistently throughout his career, with a .269/.331/.393 slash across eight seasons in the big leagues, including a .240/.300/.396 showing with the Orioles last year.

As for the trio of recent cuts, none of them are especially surprising. Pratto appeared unlikely to have a role with the big league club to open the season thanks to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino’s return from labrum surgery and Nelson Velazquez’s emergence as a credible slugger at DH. Waters, similarly, is the odd man out in the club’s crowded outfield mix. Both former top prospects will open the season at Triple-A, providing them an opportunity to receive regular reps they couldn’t get with the big league Royals. Nola starting the season in the minors is hardly a surprise, either, as he joined the club on a split contract that was seemingly designed to allow him to be a backup to Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin at the Triple-A level.

More from around the AL Central…

  • The White Sox recently dealt right-hander Dylan Cease after months of rumors and speculation, shipping him to the Padres in exchange for a prospect package headlined by Drew Thorpe. Club GM Chris Getz recently spoke to Scott Merkin of MLB.com about the trade and noted that San Diego was one of two clubs who made “significant offers,” with Merkin reporting that the Rangers were the second place finisher for Cease’s services. Getz also made clear that the sides did not engage in extension negotiations amid the winter’s trade rumors, adding that while the club would have “loved” to keep Cease in the fold long term, he felt such an arrangement “wasn’t realistic.” That’s somewhat understandable, as Chicago suffered a 101-loss season last year and appears to have a long way to go before contending again, even in a relatively weak AL Central division. Given that reality, it would’ve been surprising to see the club commit to the sort of significant outlay that would have been required to retain the runner-up for the 2022 AL Cy Young award.
  • Tigers youngster Sawyer Gipson-Long once appeared likely to compete with other youngsters such as Casey Mize, Reese Olson, and Matt Manning for a role in the club’s starting rotation alongside Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, and Kenta Maeda. Unfortunately for Gipson-Long, he’s been nursing a left groin strain throughout camp that, as noted by Evan Woodbery of the Detroit Free Press, will lead to him opening the season on the injured list. Gipson-Long, who the club acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for right-hander Michael Fulmer, made his big league debut late in the season last year and impressed during four starts in the majors. In 20 innings of work, the right-hander posted a 2.70 ERA with a 3.16 FIP while striking out an excellent 31.7% of batters faced. With Mize and Olson now set to start the season in the rotation, Gipson-Long figures to head to Triple-A Toledo once healthy, where he’ll provide Detroit with quality rotation depth alongside Matt Manning and wait for an opportunity in the big leagues.

Picollo On Roles For Massey, Frazier

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The latest move in a busy Royals offseason brought veteran second baseman/left fielder Adam Frazier to Kansas City on a one-year deal. Though Frazier has a long track record as an everyday player, Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo suggested following the signing that Michael Massey will still be the regular second baseman, with Frazier operating in more of a utility role (link via Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star).

“[Massey] needs to be a big part of our team, and we shared that with [Frazier] last week,” Picollo stated. The second-year K.C. GM stressed the importance of being up-front with a veteran like Frazier about the role he’d likely be stepping into. That, it seems, won’t be an everyday one. Picollo noted that with his defensive versatility, Frazier “can protect us, so to speak, in a lot of ways.”

Massey, who’ll turn 26 in March, has logged significant big league time in each of the past two seasons but has yet to solidify himself as a productive big league hitter. Selected by the Royals in the fourth round of the 2019 draft, Massey breezed through the minors. He’s a .293/.355/.503 hitter in the minors overall, and he slashed an impressive .312/.371/.532 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022 before getting his first call to the big leagues.

Unfortunately for both Massey and the Royals, that level of output hasn’t carried over to the big leagues. The lefty-swinging second baseman has appeared in 181 games over the past two seasons and turned in a middling .233/.284/.379 slash. Massey didn’t walk at prolific rates in the minors, but his 5.2% walk rate in 655 MLB plate appearances is clearly lacking. He’s popped 19 home runs and struck out at a slightly lower-than-average 21.5% clip, but his 88.8 mph exit velocity and 38.7% hard-hit rate are both a bit shy of league average.

To his credit, Massey improved down the stretch in 2023. His second-half batting line of .237/.271/.434 still sits well below average, but he cut his strikeout rate from a glaring 28.2% in 200 first-half plate appearances to 15.4% in 228 second-half trips to the plate. Massey reduced his chase rate on pitches off the plate, greatly improved his contact rate on pitches within the zone and generally swung through fewer pitches. The overall quality of his contact didn’t improve much, but the frequency of it did. Were it not for a .238 average on balls in play in that stretch of 228 plate appearances, the second half of his season would likely look a whole lot better.

The 2024 season will be an important one for Massey. He’s still relatively young, heading into his age-26 season, but with another year of comparable production to what he’s already displayed at the MLB level, it’ll be far more difficult for the Royals to continue with him in a prominent role. To that end, that’s one of the areas in which Frazier affords the team some of the “protection” mentioned by Picollo. Frazier’s own production has dropped off since his Pirates days, but last year’s .240/.300/.396 is better across the board than Massey’s was.

Frazier also offers some protection against an uncertain outfield group. MJ Melendez is another once-promising Royals farmhand who’s yet to hit in the big leagues. Free agent signee Hunter Renfroe hits lefties far better than righties. The hope is surely for him to patrol right field on an everyday basis, but if Renfroe struggles, Frazier does have nearly 400 career innings in right field. He also provides the Royals with injury depth for each of Massey, Melendez and Renfroe.

Royals Exploring Pitching Market, Have Interest In Seth Lugo

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The Royals have been “aggressive” in their search for rotation help this offseason and made an offer to right-hander Sonny Gray before he signed with the Cardinals, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal further writes that the Royals are among the teams showing strong interest in right-hander Seth Lugo, who’s drawn widespread interest this winter.

Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo has made no secret about his desire to add to his rotation, plainly stating early in the offseason that “one of our goals is to get starting pitching.” The Royals need at least one arm and could well look to add multiple pieces to the rotation between now and Opening Day. The Royals got a breakout showing from Cole Ragans after acquiring him from the Rangers in exchange for Aroldis Chapman this past summer, and right-hander Brady Singer is likely locked into a rotation spot even after an up-and-down year (and, more broadly, up-and-down big league tenure in terms of performance). Beyond that, the Royals have veteran innings eater Jordan Lyles signed for next season and are surely still hopeful of getting some quality innings from former top prospects Kris Bubic (recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Daniel Lynch.

That said, the Royals have been hoping for the quartet of Singer, Lynch, Bubic and Jackson Kowar to eventually emerge at the MLB level for several seasons. That group comprised the nucleus of a vaunted 2018 crop of college arms around whom the Royals hoped to build, but their development hasn’t panned out. Singer had a brilliant 2022 season and took a step back in 2023. Bubic had Tommy John surgery early in 2023. Kowar has been twice traded this offseason and is now in the Mariners organization.

Rosenthal suggests that in their quest to find rotation upgrades, the Royals have been willing to talk about trades of former top catching/outfield prospect MJ Melendez, infielder Michael Massey and catcher Freddy Fermin. Melendez and Massey, however, are coming off dismal 2023 campaigns. The former is a .227/.314/.396 hitter in 1136 MLB plate appearances and has posted bottom-of-the-scale defensive grades both behind the plate and in the outfield corners. The latter got his first full-time look in ’23 but managed only a .229/.274/.381 slash with mixed defensive ratings (-9 Defensive Runs Saved, +3 Outs Above Average). Both players still have five seasons of remaining club control.

Fermin, meanwhile, looks to be a late-blooming option capable of handling a regular workload behind the dish, be it for the Royals or another club. He entered the 2023 season with just seven MLB plate appearances but wound up tallying 235 trips to the plate with a .281/.321/.461 output and nine home runs. Defensive Runs Saved credited Fermin at a hearty mark of +8, and both FanGraphs and Statcast credited him as an above average framer. Statcast also tabbed Fermin as league-average in terms of blocking balls in the dirt, and his 31% caught-stealing rate checked in 10 percentage points above the league average.

Age and lack of big league track record notwithstanding, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding Fermin and his breakout rookie season. However, that also makes him quite valuable to a Royals club that has an aging Salvador Perez behind the plate. Perez’s defensive ratings have been in a freefall for the past few seasons, and his production at the plate has also begun to wane. The 33-year-old (34 in May) team captain still smacked 23 home runs last year, but his overall .255/.292/.422 batting line was his weakest since 2018. Perez still caught 91 games last year (against 29 at DH), but at some point the Royals could begin playing him more regularly at DH, which would open time for Fermin. Perez is still signed for another two years at a total of $44MM.

Since Rosenthal reports that Kansas City has spoken with the Marlins and Mariners about pitching-related trades, Miami might stand out as a logical team that could have interest in Fermin’s services.  The Fish are in need of catching help, and seem to be open to the idea of dealing more pitching, after already parting ways with a decent chunk of their rotation depth in other trades over the last couple of years.

As for the team’s free-agent pursuits, Lugo is a sensible and logical target both due to his strong platform season and the fact that the Royals also reportedly had interest in him a year ago. After spending the bulk of his career as a reliever with the Mets, Lugo signed a two-year, $15MM deal with the Padres, who offered him a chance to start and even included an opt-out in the event that he showed well in a starting role.

That’s exactly how things played out. Lugo took the ball 26 times and posted a 3.57 ERA with a 23.2% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate in a career-high 146 1/3 innings. He’s already 34, but Lugo figures to command a much nicer multi-year deal this time around — perhaps reaching three years in length. That the length of his deal will likely be capped due to age should be appealing to the Royals, who typically operate on a tight budget but do have some spending flexibility this winter. Picollo has already said that his club should have at least $30MM to spend.

The Most Alarming Aspect Of Royals’ Disappointing Season

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The Royals are much closer to the worst team in baseball than a playoff spot. While Kansas City wasn’t expected to make the postseason, there’s no question the organization envisioned better results than they had in the first half.

There are a number of reasons for the club’s underperformance. The most concerning theme for the organization has been the down years and/or injury issues for most of their top young talent. Kansas City expected to be further along in the rebuild by now. Instead, a lot of the players they’ve envisioned as a developing core have plateaued or gone backwards.

That’s not unanimously true. Bobby Witt Jr. has stolen 27 bases, connected on 14 home runs and taken a huge step defensively. Even with a modest .300 on-base percentage, he looks like the franchise shortstop the Royals wanted when selecting him with the 2nd overall pick in 2019. Rookie Maikel Garcia has taken over third base with plus exit velocities and strong defense.

Aside from the left side of the infield, the Royals’ young players have mostly underwhelmed, however.

Melendez, a 2nd-round selection in 2017, emerged as one of the sport’s top prospects with a 41-homer showing in the upper minors two years ago. The left-handed hitter connected on 18 longballs with a roughly average .217/.313/.393 line as a rookie in 2022. His power production has fallen off this year; he carries a meager .206/.289/.333 mark with six homers in 346 trips to the plate.

While Melendez walks a fair amount, he offsets that with big strikeout totals. He has gone down on strikes nearly 30% of the time this season. That puts a lot of pressure on him to hit for power, no small feat in one of the sport’s most pitcher-friendly home parks. Melendez has a huge 93 MPH average exit velocity and is making hard contact (95+ MPH) on over half his batted balls. There’s clearly power upside in there. He’s not in a great environment to maximize it and is striking out too frequently though.

Were Melendez catching every day, that offensive profile would be more acceptable. With Salvador Perez behind the dish, the Royals have deployed the youngster mostly in the corner outfield. Well below-average offense at a bat-first position means he’s playing at a worse than replacement level rate.

The Royals invested heavily in college pitching in the 2018 draft. Singer was the only member of the group who put together mid-rotation results, seemingly breaking out with a 3.23 ERA over 27 appearances last season. He’s gone in the opposite direction this year.

Over 18 starts, the Florida product is allowing 5.80 earned runs per nine across 94 2/3 innings. His strikeouts and grounders are both at career-worst levels. Singer’s strikeout rate has dropped over six percentage points to a modest 18.1% clip. His swinging strikes are down to a below-average 8.5% of his offerings.

Singer’s arsenal has backed up. His sinker is averaging 92.3 MPH, down a tick and a half from last year’s level. His career-long struggle to find a changeup is still showing up in his results against left-handed hitters. Southpaws have a .292/.373/.489 line in 250 trips to the plate this year.

Lynch, the 34th overall selection in the aforementioned college-heavy ’18 draft, has started 50 games in his MLB career. The 6’6″ southpaw has yet to find much success, posting a 5.10 ERA over parts of three seasons. His 4.18 mark through eight starts is a personal low, though he’s paired it with a few alarming underlying indicators.

Most notably, Lynch’s velocity has taken a step back. He’s averaging 92.7 MPH on his heater, down from the 94 MPH range in which he sat in 2021-22. A Spring Training rotator cuff strain could explain that dip, although Lynch’s velocity has fallen even as he’s gotten further removed from the season-opening injured list stint. He averaged a season-low 91.6 MPH on his four-seam during his final start headed into the All-Star Break.

With the drop in speed has come a corresponding hit to his strikeouts. The Virginia product has fanned under 16% of opposing hitters. It’s the lowest rate of his career, down nearly five points from last season. Lynch’s 11.7% swinging strike percentage is still solid, so he’s not losing whiffs on a per-pitch basis, but he’s had a tougher time finishing off at-bats.

Pasquantino’s disappointing year has been more about health than performance. His .247/.324/.437 line was down markedly from a huge .295/.383/.450 rookie showing, but even the diminished version of Pasquantino was one of Kansas City’s top hitters. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old tore the labrum in his right shoulder and underwent surgery last month. His season is finished after just 61 games.

Pasquantino’s injury has opened regular playing time for the 24-year-old Pratto. Like Melendez, the lefty-hitting first baseman emerged as a top prospect based on huge power production in the upper minors. His profile also comes with significant swing-and-miss concerns, which have resurfaced at the MLB level.

Pratto is hitting .246/.331/.388 with six homers in a career-high 257 plate appearances. That’s better than the bulk of the Kansas City lineup, league average offense by measure of wRC+. Yet he’s needed a .395 average on balls in play to keep that production respectable. He’s striking out at a 37.7% clip, the highest rate among players with 250+ trips to the plate. If he’s to be a long-term regular, especially at a bat-first position, he’ll need to put the ball in play more frequently.

By the time the Royals acquired Waters from the Braves almost exactly one year ago, the outfielder’s stock was well down from its peak level. The switch-hitter had been a borderline Top 50 prospect at one point in the Atlanta farm system, but mounting strikeout issues in the upper minors raised questions about his offense. The Royals were buying low to some extent, though they still relinquished the 35th overall pick in last year’s draft (which Atlanta subsequently used on high school righty JR Ritchie) for Waters.

Kansas City wouldn’t have given up a pick that high if they didn’t believe Waters still had a chance to be an everyday player. An offseason trade of Michael A. Taylor cleared a path to center field reps. Waters’ hopes of starting on Opening Day were dashed by a left oblique strain that cost him the first two months of the season.

Since returning, the 24-year-old has put up a .239/.293/.354 line over 37 games. He’s striking out an untenable 37.4% rate. Perhaps there’s some rust to be shaken off after the extended absence, but Waters’ early results aren’t offering much hope he’s on the verge of a breakthrough. Whether he’ll make enough contact to be a regular is still in question.

With Waters opening the season on the shelf, the 26-year-old Isbel got the Opening Day nod in center field. He has just a .210/.258/.355 line in 37 contests. Isbel is making the most contact of his career but not hitting many line drives, and his overall production closely matches last year’s .211/.264/.340 slash. The former 3rd-round selection has been viewed by most evaluators as a fringe regular, although he still ranked among K.C.’s top ten prospects at Baseball America each season from 2019-22. He looks better suited for fourth/fifth outfield duty than a starting role.

Massey, 25, showed some promise with a .243/.307/.376 line as a rookie late last season. He got the Opening Day nod at second base this year but hasn’t seized the job. The left-handed hitter has a .220/.277/.320 mark with four homers over 220 plate appearances. Opposing pitchers have punched him out 28.2% of the time. Massey is hitting the ball reasonably hard but chasing too many pitches outside the strike zone to post a decent on-base mark.

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Without much progress from most of their young players, the Royals haven’t had many silver linings. A 26-65 record would be an obvious disappointment regardless of how it was happening, but it’s made more so by the scarcity of controllable players asserting themselves as key pieces for the future. Aside from Witt and arguably Garcia, none of Kansas City’s early-mid 20s talent is staking a firm claim to an important role for next season.

The  primary focus for the next few weeks will be which veteran players get moved at the deadline, with closer Scott Barlow standing out as their top trade chip. Once August 1 passes, the final couple months will be about evaluation. Can any of their currently scuffling controllable players turn things around to head into the offseason with positive momentum to build upon?

Royals Select Matt Beaty, Place Michael Massey On 10-Day IL

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The Royals announced that they have selected the contract of utiltyman Matt Beaty from Triple-A, and placed second baseman Michael Massey on the 10-day injured list due to a left hand laceration.  MLB.com’s Anne Rogers reported earlier today that Beaty had a locker in the team’s clubhouse, and that Massey was likely headed to the IL with “a deep cut right on his knuckle, so he’s unable to move it much right now.”  Vinnie Pasquantino (whose season has been ended by shoulder surgery) was moved to the 60-day IL to create a 40-man roster spot for Beaty.

After signing a minor league deal with Kansas City in January, Beaty was traded to the Giants on Opening Day, and he ended up appearing in four games for San Francisco while being optioned to the minors on multiple occasions and eventually designated for assignment.  Beaty elected to become a free agent rather than accept an outright assignment to the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate, and then returned to the Royals on a new minor league deal earlier this week.

Now, Beaty finally looks set to make his official debut in a K.C. uniform.  The 30-year-old made his big league debut with the Dodgers in 2019, and hit .262/.333/.425 over 556 plate appearances in part-time action over the next three seasons, earning a World Series ring in 2020.  Los Angeles traded Beaty to the Padres in March 2022 but the SoCal move went poorly, as Beaty played in only 20 games for San Diego last season while missing the bulk of the year due to a shoulder injury.

Beaty has experience at both corner infield and outfield positions, with first base and left field being his primary positions.  He could help out at all four spots plus the DH role in Kansas City, though first base might be a less-frequent role since Beaty and Nick Pratto are both left-handed hitters.  In what is already looking like a lost season for the Royals, the team will surely prioritize giving Pratto everyday at-bats as a small silver lining to the blow that was Pasquantino’s shoulder injury.

Massey has seen most of the playing time at second base this season, though Matt Duffy, Nicky Lopez, and Maikel Garcia have also gotten some work at the keystone for platoon reasons and because Massey hasn’t hit much.  The 25-year-old has batted .217/.279/.315 over 204 PA, with four home runs.  Beaty’s availability for third base could open the door for Garcia or Lopez to play second base in Massey’s absence.

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