Red Sox left-hander James Paxton has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 tear in his left lat muscle and will be shut down for the season, manager Alex Cora informed reporters (including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). It’ll go down as a completely lost season for the left-hander, who hasn’t pitched in a big league game since April 2021.
Paxton has dealt with numerous injuries throughout his career. He’s spent time on the IL in every year since 2014, including an extended absence for a left lat strain that season. Paxton has also been plagued by hand, forearm, chest, knee and elbow concerns. The arm injuries, in particular, have proven problematic over the past few years. The southpaw missed most of the shortened 2020 campaign trying to rehab from a flexor strain in his forearm. While he avoided undergoing surgery at the time, he blew out in the second inning of his first start the following year and required Tommy John surgery.
That procedure ended Paxton’s reunion tour with the Mariners last year before it got far off the ground, but the Red Sox nevertheless signed him to a $10MM guarantee this past offseason. That rather complex arrangement paid him a $6MM salary for this season and contained a pair of successive $13MM club options — essentially a two-year, $26MM deal — for the Sox to decide upon in conjunction this winter. If the team declines the options, Paxton would receive a $4MM player option for 2023 alone.
On the heels of a third straight injury-wrecked season, there’s essentially no chance the Red Sox commit $13MM salaries for the upcoming two years. It seems likely that Paxton will accept his $4MM option, although there’s at least a small possibility he foregoes that figure in search of an incentive-laden pact on the open market. If Paxton declines the player option, the Sox would’ve committed him $6MM for no return on their investment.
That’s not to say it was an entirely illogical bet for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff to take last winter. At the time of Paxton’s signing in December, the club anticipated he’d contribute for the second half and a possible playoff push. Despite a minor delay as he dealt with elbow soreness in May, he indeed seemed on track to get on the mound for the season’s final month. Paxton had ramped up a throwing program and begun a rehab assignment last Thursday, but he faced just two batters before suffering the lat injury.
It has now been three years since Paxton was healthy, but he was an effective starter for the Yankees during his last extended stretch of action. He made 29 appearances in 2019, tossing 150 2/3 frames with a 3.82 ERA and an excellent 29.4% strikeout rate. A trio of teams (New York, Seattle and Boston) have taken successive shots to see if he can replicate that well above-average production in the years since then, but the series of injuries has unfortunately kept that from happening.
Boston is facing a fair bit of potential turnover in the rotation this offseason. Paxton has the aforementioned dual team/player options, while Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill will all be free agents. Chris Sale is under contract through 2024 but coming off another injury-plagued season of his own. Aside from Nick Pivetta — whose 4.24 ERA this season is a career-low — there isn’t much rotation certainty moving forward. Bloom and his staff will have their work cut out for them in overhauling much of that group, regardless of whether Paxton elects to return.
Grass is still green.
Water is wet.
Roses are red, violets are blue
Paxton is hurt, what else is new?
I’m trying to figure out who’s lamer FullMontilla, Paxton or Strasburg?
Red Sox should have traded Bogarts and Martinez. Could have loaded up on prospects and even tried to bring them back in the off-season if they wanted.
I’m a Yanks fan and I totally agree. Yanks did with Miller and Chapman and it netted them Gleyber and others. This was the year to do this with all of those pitchers down in July.
I said this right after the deadline. It was foolish to think we were going to compete with four teams ahead of us. It was a bad move not to trade Bogey or Martinez. If there was one keeper, I would’ve rather kept Vazquez. He’s all but gone now. With Story, Bogaerts isn’t coming back. Can’t forget Eovaldi either, he could have been traded.
Why does it need to keep being repeated that they couldn’t trade Bogaerts? He has full no-trade protection and was clear that he wasn’t going to waive it. Let it go already.
Fine, if he couldn’t be traded they still could’ve traded Eovaldi and Martinez and got something back. It was a missed opportunity not to make a trade.
I doubt they were offered much for two months of Eovaldi and JD. Eovaldi was just returning from the IL and JD has not been JD this year. If they were offered a bunch of rule 5 eligible players, they already have a lot of those.
I’m a Yanks fan and I totally agree. Yanks did with Miller and Chapman and it netted them Gleyber and others. This was the year to do this with all of those pitchers down in July.
Who do you agree with?
He’s gonna be paid $10 million to never play for the Red Sox and possibly retire, I think.
“Player X over 30 gets hurt again, has made $X, and should retire.” It’s a lat tear, not arm amputation.
14 mil
6. He only gets the extra 4 if he executes next years player option.
Hello darkness my old frieeeeeeend…
Jacoby Ellsbury but in starting pitcher form
Good comparison, especially since both have played for the Yankees and Red Sox now. Well at least Paxton wore a Red Sox hat in the dugout a few times
That was more just a Yankees money grab. Paxton is more of a resurgence project.
No reason teams have kept taking chances on this guy as his health has obviously been a concern for years. Yet again, and again… they pay big $ for him to do nothing.
The sad part is either the Sox are picking up his options, or someone else will pay more than 4 million for him to warm their bench next year.
BMI = 27.6
Anything over 25 increases chances of injury with no increase in performance. Too many baseball players are “overweight” by BMI standards and that’s one of the biggest reasons there are so many injuries. It’s been studied and shown, but baseball stays in the dark ages.
Care to cite your researched scientific sources?
journals.lww.com/acsm-csmr/Fulltext/2017/07000/Bod…
sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1440244…
Numerous studies on young athletes are available. It’s not studied as much with adults but there are indicators that it’s true.
A lot more out of shape players in the 70s with less big injuries.
What was the BMI for Barry Bonds pre and post BALCO?
Probably less then 6% either way.
I think you’re talking bodyfat percent with the 6%. It’s hard to put on weight and hold that percent down unless you’re on something so you’re probably right.
BMI is based on height and weight, so extremely muscular people can appear “overweight” by its measure.
And, extremely muscular people get injured more. It’s just different types of injuries for the over muscled than it is for the “overweight”. Very few of the players who had long careers in the past were over muscled or overweight. Yes, many players were overweight or out of shape in the past and most of them were washed up at 30.
I was responding to this: “Anything over 25 increases chances of injury with no increase in performance.”
I would have to believe Barry Bonds was below that (a 25 BMI) when he was young, and far above it in his BALCO era.
There was quite an increase in performance.
But his increase in performance wasn’t because he got bigger, it’s because he loaded up on chemicals that improved everything about his hitting. The size change was the indicator that something nefarious may be going on.
No, being that strong was definitely a part of the increase in performance. Strong enough to check his swing in situations he couldn’t before. Strong enough to hit baseballs markedly further than he had before.
True and great points. Being heavy because of muscle is better than being heavy because of fat, but it’s still not ideal at all.
BMI is antiquated. You should’ve made this argument 20 years ago when BMI was still trendy.
BMI is bunk.
Bloom looks worse and worse with every failed dumpster diving signing that fizzles out
This was a loser year but what about 2021? I don’t count 2020. Bloom’s drafts still have to develop. He did great in finding Renfroe but unless the chips he got back become contributors or valuable in a subsequent trade, the deal with the Brewers was bad. That’s said, defense and pitching better be key in the off season.
Offense still nonexistent and will get worse with key players leaving. Can’t rely on Bobby Dalbec
Agree on Dalbec who should be playing every day at Worcester to learn how to hit a fast ball.
@dewey- Do you think they attempt to go all in next year,or sign place holders until the kids arrive ready to contribute? I’ve got to think that they will be active in the rule5 draft, sign veterans to short term contracts, potentially move said veterans at the deadline and shoot for competing in 2024. Your thoughts?
Gut tells me they will see if their talent is ready but at the same time NESN ratings will be a factor. Expecting the team to pay or develop defense and pitching. Then make a splash at next year’s deadline if they’re doing well.
As the song says “take the money and run!”
In Blooms case….like Ron White said….you cant fix stupid.
Future young pitching isn’t so dire, not as it has been for decades. Mata and Bello should be able to take regular turns in 2023 rotation. Both need to stay on MLB roster at this point and chunk the fallacy this is some WC team, anyone from Henry on down who believes it is a drunkard and putting away too much, rather than watching what is on the field on any given day.
Winckowski is and has been a reliever (long) imitating a starter for 2y, since he was acquired. Have said that since they got him from KC. Run him thru a lineup just once, the FB velocity ticks up and he’s more effective. Forget this “he’s a starter” rubbish.
Go ahead and run TJ returnee Thad Ward up to AAA and see how close he is to helping also early next season. Young starters are within the system and close.
Bello looked good last night from the glimpses I saw… so happy someone dropped him in a dynasty league
John, didn’t the Sox get Winckowski from the Mets in that three team trade?
yes
3 team, like u mentioned and thought he was a KC toss in then also. Thanks all.
Young pitching was still point. System is really loaded at upper levels. Chris murphy should be ready early next year as should Brandon Walter. Shine has kind of worn of of Seabold some, but never know.
The Sox anticipating a contribution from Paxton remains puzzling. Big swing and miss (again). But, the blessed farm system … who are these can’t miss prospects, by the way? Would be nice if Bloom had a working strategy for the big club – I didn’t realize wasting money was so central to the Tampa Bay model.
Chaim Bloom certainly has no aversion to rolling the dice so to speak. Had JBJ been able to hit .240, and Paxton stayed healthy enough to contribute this year and potentially slide into the back of the rotation next season, Bloom would look like the second coming of Dick O’connell. As it is, he rolled snake eyes. He has his work cut out for him this off season, and perhaps the next as well.
Having to replace 3/5 of a rotation is not a situation you wanna be in. Giants had to replace 4/5 of their rotation last winter, and they didn’t exactly do it at the top of the market – no one can do that. Wacha would probably return affordably, but bringing back Paxton at any price is a waste of time. Is there any help on the way in the minors?
My friend you have seen the minor league pitchers all summer. I saw spurts but nothing earth shattering at all that could pay immediate dividends next season. If Bloom (Who I hope is not) or any other GM is in charge next year they are going to have to trade away some of those prospects to pick up starting pitching or solid bullpen help.
Saw ‘tear’ before seeing the rest of the headline and immediately figured it was about Mike Trout. Fragile guy.
Another front office brilliante move by a checked out group
sad!
Bloom should BE FIRED YESTERDAY
Another great Bloom pickup! The hits just keep coming with Bloom. How can anyone have any confidence in this guy going forward.