Turkeys are in the oven but what’s simmering on the hot stove?
1. Bryce Harper Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
After playing most of 2022 with a torn UCL, Bryce Harper finally went under the knife yesterday. It wasn’t known what type of surgery he would require until the procedure began, but he ultimately required a full ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, also known as Tommy John surgery. The Phillies provided this update: “The prognosis is for Bryce to be returning as the designated hitter by the All-Star break of 2023 with a possible return to play right field towards the end of the regular season.” Not having Harper in the lineup for the first half of the season is certainly a blow to the club, but it also creates opportunities by opening up the DH spot. That could mean less time in the outfield for guys like Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, but there are other plans being considered. Manager Rob Thomson told reporters, including Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer, that one option would be Alec Bohm moving over to first base and Rhys Hoskins taking the DH spot. Third base would then go to Edmundo Sosa, with the club presumably adding a shortstop. The Phils have been connected to the free agent shortstops for some time and Harper’s lengthy absence could increase their urgency to pursue Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.
2. Aaron Judge Meets With Giants
As expected, Aaron Judge met with the Giants this week. According to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, this meeting included a chat with NBA superstar Steph Curry. The Giants are expected to make an offer soon and it will be interesting to see what form it takes. The top free agents usually reach free agency in the late 20s but Judge is a little older, turning 31 in April. As part of our post on the top 50 free agents, MLBTR predicted Judge to get an eight-year deal, which would take him into his age-38 season. With multiple teams at the table, would Judge try to get a ninth year with a lower annual salary or would he prefer to focus on the AAV? Also, who else will he meet with? It’s been reported that the Dodgers are interested in signing Judge to take over right field and then moving Mookie Betts to second base. Is Judge planning to take a trip down the Pacific Coast Highway after the holidays?
3. 2023-24 Free Agents
The 2022-23 offseason is underway, but if you’re already looking ahead to next winter, MLBTR has you covered. Later today, we will publish a list of players currently slated to reach the open market one year from now. This list will be fluid since some players will sign extensions, while current free agents will agree to one-year deals or longer pacts with options or opt-outs opportunities. The post will be updated over time to reflect those changes. There are some very intriguing names on the list, but the most exciting is a certain two-way player who’s currently on the Angels.
How big of a market do you expect for Michael Lorenzen?
Probably not huge as he only pitched this past season.
Lorenzon didn’t even make it to 100 innings as a starter. I would expect his value may be as a swing man. That said, the Mets could use him in a similar role as Trevor Williams if Williams signs elsewhere
If exclude Harper’s rookie season and 2020, he has played 150+ games in 3 of 9 seasons. Missing 184 games.. Just bad luck, I guess. Signing Harper is also knowing for every standout season you get, you also get missed time and “man, I can’t wait till he is back”.
All the best to his healing.
A lot of his missed time was due to getting drilled by pitches (i.e. hit in the face, broken thumb…etc). So there’s definitely an element of luck there, but the arm issue is troubling for sure.
It took him a few seasons to meet a wall he couldn’t run-through.
Byron Buxton: Hold my beer.
Fred Lynn says hello.
I agree, time for the Phillies to trade Harper and that albatross of a contract…. [to the Yankees!]
Frazier-Andujar offer still on the table?
Yep, even throw in Gallo for ya.
Funny
Judge is taking his services else where. Dodgers or giants but he’s headed to the west coast
He keeps a pretty good poker face. Because from DET, he looks happy in pinstripes. Not that I think they necessarily should.
Is it just because he’s a California kid? I honestly do not know.
Married his high school sweetheart last year. Man of faith. Started a children based charity. My guess, taking her home so she can nest with the security of having her Mum close by. The ladies are big on that, and Dad will be traveling a lot with work.
foppert, you just basically described CC Sabathia and NY is where he wanted to be. I have no idea what Judge wants but ties to an area aren’t necessary indicators of where someone wants to go.
It’s a guess with a healthy dose of confirmed bias thrown in. Don’t hold me to it. I did a bit of weird internet stalking yesterday on the man and his back story and his principles. I’m feeling more confidant than I was prior to that exercise. As someone else described it, I’m just not sure he is a “King of New York” type of guy.
He’s definitely hard to read. Sometimes it’s like he was born for pinstripes and sometimes it looks like he would be happy to go to SF.
I’d hate to play poker with him.
I’m impressed. Ultimate professional. Good human. Totally understand why they are breaking the bank.
I think the reasons you listed are only going to come into play if Yankees & Giants offer him the same amount.
Just like every other major free agent looking for 300+, Judge will choose whoever offers him the most money. It’s just good business
foppert – That’s why I’ve always been a fan, even though he’s a rival. Other than the radio incident, which I already forgave him for, he’s a great role model similar to Mookie and that translates to lots of additional revenue for whichever team signs him.
Even with Yankee Stadium booing him in the postseason, I still think he returns to the Yankees … only because they won’t be outbid, he’s too valuable to that franchise.
Matt – It’s also a union requirement, you don’t devalue every other player’s negotiating power by taking considerably less than what you were offered.
It’s the only reason why the ARod trade to the Red Sox was overturned.
Humble and classy. Great combo. His parents have done very well. Buster 2.0.
thats the part people don’t get when speaking of a league w/o a salary cap. a small discount for hometown or favored team is all you’re going to get. I have no problem with demanding a large contract and if Judge goes to Seattle or SF, then good for him. I personally would only offer 4 @160 w 5th mutual option and 10 mill buyout.
I don’t think he’s going to the Dodgers or Giants. I believe he’s staying in New York or sleeper team.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Padres sign him. Or even Oakland.
OAK seriously? Billy Beane on vacation and interns manning the phones on Thanksgiving? Judge would cost more than their current stadium’s valuation — almost.
Oakland needs to sale tickets.
If they were to sign a big contract like Judge. People would come to watch him play with the hopes of a better season. Of course one player won’t fix their problems.
But it’s a start.
If Judge signs with the A’s, I say we all pitch in and send number1dodger to their home opener.
If Oakland is worried about ticket sales and having a big star to put butts in seats, they could have literally just resigned any of the dozen stars they’ve let walk or traded to save money.
That would be one helluva 76 win team!
Oakland had Mark McGwire and Jose Canseco in their primes and still never cracked 3 million in attendance (their record still stands at 2.9 million in 1990, a year after winning the World Series). The A’s have always been a middle to bottom of the pack team in attendance regardless of whichever star players they had at any given time. Judge does nothing to push the needle in Oakland
All the A’s have to do is move to Vegas if they want to sell tickets…
A’s? Yeah Right?
Renovation???
The Las Vegas A’s will be too far from the Bay Area for Judge anyhow.
I have always said. Oakland needs to relocate to Portland Or or Las Vegas. The only drawback about NV
Is the summertime heat. A dome would be needed. Also a dome in Portland as well because of the rainy weather.
I like that idea. I was just throwing that idea out there. I believe the Oakland area is the problem.
Nobody has any money. If they do they are buying drugs.
Seriously? That’s the mindset? I get it, but Judge would be a sideshow pony to the elephant in the room. MLB is not NBA – a star does not a team make, especially if OAK is 1 season away from tearing it down and trading away proven stars they had the best shot to lock up (i.e. Olson, Bassitt, Chapman, Montas, etc.). Now you get quite possibly the richest contract in MLB history to pair with the leftovers 2 years later and hope that people will come? A start would be signing A player, not THE player.
MLB the Show is fun, but that’s the only way you are seeing Judge in an A’s uniform
Which contract is going to look better in the long run, Judge or Harper?
I think Harper’s just because the AAV seems pretty low to average by today’s standards. Judge is going to get 30-30+ a year.
Judge is going to get 40 mil a year for 7-9 years, as this site has predicted 8 years 332mil 41 aav. Harper got 13 years only to spread out the $ but he has 9 years left on the deal. So we can easily compare the 2, who would you rather have for the next 9 years? Harper 30 years old 25 mil a year or Judge 31 years old at 40 mil a year?
Judge can just enjoy the offers pouring into him right now. Its going to be huge and he can pick where he wants to play. Nobody knows his decision right now not even him. So fans can only hope he signs with them..
It’s a fun argument but I’m taking Harper. Judge has huge power but the swing and miss in his game makes any steps back in hitting more concerning. Judge is a much better defender but that is a skill that age hits quicker and harder than other skills. Harper has one of the best eyes in the game so his floor seems more in line with a Votto type where he could have some good seasons even as he ages. And, although I hate bringing up postseason for sample sizes reasons, Harper has shown he can show up on the biggest stage whereas Judge’s skill set can slump and result in what we saw this postseason. Judge is great but I’ll take a cheaper Harper all day.
Hm. Are we really forgetting Harper went limp in the 2014 postseason, the 2016 postseason, and the 2017 postseason, along with his .760 OPS in the 2022 WS?
Von – I feel the floor is 40M AAV.
Likely which is nuts. I’ll take Harper’s contract any day of the week.
Agreed. Depending upon years. When Judge signs for 6 years at $35mm, it should be a very good debate assuming health for both. They already got 4 years of great production out of him. He won an MVP with the Phills and before injuries sucked power out of him for the second half, he looked like he was going to be in the MVP conversation again. For age 36-39 seasons he’ll be down to $23.5mm each year. Personally I prefer Harper, I think he’s more a fear to pitchers in tight situations, but I se the argument for the other side.
@CentralV; It depends who performs better in October. Harper won this year. Judge’s regular season performance looked much different than his post season performance. Oof. Harper showed up big time.
Harper. He has already been to a World Series and could help lead the Phillies to another with the right upgrades in the pitching staff and short.
The Yankees resigning Judge just extends the status quo.
@CTBronx7; yes, could possibly extend the status quo. But if your Cashman, ya gotta lock him up! Hard to find a big hitter who is not intimidated by the bright lights of NYC!
And a silver lining. Stanton goes off. Always thought he was not comfortable being top, sans Cole, salary guy. It’s been in his head and IMO he has underperformed because if it. The Judge deal takes that pressure off!
Harper, and I don’t know that’s it’s even debatable at this stage, honestly. Perhaps when their respective careers are over the statistical tallies, coupled with the AAVs, will yield a more even picture, depending on how long Judge can keep producing at an elite level.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Thank you fre5h. Happy Thanksgiving to you as well.
I really doubt they used a knife
No… I heard they used a plastic butter knife. Took ’em hours.
Its a saying, going under the knife, and technically a scalpel is type of knife. As it is also described as a Hobby knife or x-acto Knife but hey ignorance is bliss!
Judge is not a good fit for the Giants only because he would be one of four good players. It would be more of a rebuild the Giants season. And the Dodgers don’t really need him because they don’t need to spend the money on a guy that is almost 31.
Besides, I like betts in right field.
Judge would be a threat at the plate.
Not sure if he would be the right fit for right field. I believe judge will stay in New York. Or a sleeper team is going to sign him.
Hall plays First Hoskins DH till Bryce gets back …..simple fix
I truly feel if Dom can get a decent deal for Hoskins (not a contract dump deal) maybe player/player deal or a few wild card prospects. Hes not super expensive this year and the production is there for a DH type. Theres just no room for him on the Phillies, 1st baseman are the savers of errors not the creator of them, he needs to go. Only way Hoskins stays is if no 1 is willing to deal for him.
Hall has a massive hole in his swing as things stand. He’s a platoon guy right now.
Theres a reason I didnt say hes the answer hes just a backup in case of injury or platoon DH when Harper can play the field!
Believe it or not, Hall is worse than Hoskins at 1B.
Can Judge play 1B, or is he strictly a OF/DH?
I’m sure he could learn 1B in time as he’s a very good athlete, but why would you take a Gold Glove-caliber RFer, who also plays a solid center field, and have him play 1B?
If he signed a mega contract. He’s playing defense. Somewhere on that field. First base or right field. But he’s not going to sit on the bench and only swing a bat for 300 million plus.
IMO, if you are 6’7” and can play sufficient cf, switching over to 1b should be fairly smooth. This is Aaron Judge, he can do it. If my own daughter knows a mlb player, Aaron Judge is, he must be something special lol
This has been a record breaking year. My secretary counted 178 thanksgiving day cards sent to me as a token of how thankful people are for everything I have done for them. I’d say I was humbled but there should be at least 63 more.
Mine’s in the mail. It will be particularly humbling.
Steph Curry.
Sounds like they brought the farm in to convince Judge this is where he should be in the bay. I have him picked to head back to New York, makes it fun to watch on when and how he makes his choice. At least the Giants laid it on heavy for him. He deserves this trip to FA.
Not that it would happen but could you imagine if he signed with the Angels?
MLBPA and MLB sends Thanksgiving greetings to all us wonderful fans. Oh wait they didn’t.
Obviously Judge can leave money on the table but Cashman HAS to make the best offer.
8yrs $352M ?
If Judge leaves because a team outbid the Yankees then they will get crushed by the fans
All teams willing to pay 8-9 year contracts are going to be close in money, it’s going to boil down to where Judge wants to play. New York, Giants or Dodgers. I want to say Dodgers maybe a team that tries a short term high average contract instead of length. I could be wrong as they have the money as much as the other two teams.
With Judge already being 2 years older than typical star free agents, I think he wants as many years as a team will give him. Especially after the season he had.
His value will only go down from here.
Yes. Cashman and/or Zaidi are lined up for an epic dose of internet reaming. Either way, it’s going to be ugly.
If Zaidi/Cash misses on Judge I’m sure they’ll turn to one of the star shortstops to save face. Along with a stud pitcher.
They would want to do it quick, Balk ! Or lose their phone until they do.
Well you would think there’s some need for urgency here for all teams involved with Judge. He’s publicly said he needs to sign quickly so the team can continue to restructure. Plus I think the top shortstops will wait to sign until after Judge to increase their chances of more money for a team that misses. But I don’t get paid the big bucks for my opinion so who really knows
Seems to be moving along. If it’s Giants, I think it happens quick. If it drags on, pessimism will set in.
Agree
Happy Thanksgiving!
My family has been blessed this year with much to be grateful for.
Part of that is those of you here who I spend time talking baseball with.
May your holiday be filled with family, love and laughter! Oh and great food!
Go Padres!
I’ve said it before, I think Judge will be a San Francisco Giant next year. There are all the obvious reasons why, but I suspect there’s another that’s being underplayed: the stupidity of those ingrates at Yankee Stadium who booed him during the playoffs.
Aaron has always had the Jeter approach of saying all the right things. When he’s been booed, he’s always put the onus on himself and said it came with the territory when you play in the Bronx.
But he’s a human being. He just had one of the greatest seasons in baseball history and a small but noisy contingent of idiots booed him and some of his teammates on the biggest stage of the season. He grew up rooting for the Giants, and did he ever hear the SF crowd booing their own players in the postseason? I doubt it.
If you were choosing between two offers that would set you up for life, and one meant you’d be playing for fully supportive fans on the team you grew up rooting for, and the other meant living 3,000 miles away from home and playing for a team whose fans included a loud minority of notoriously unappreciative jerks, which offer would you take?
As for the “better chance to win in the Bronx” argument, what team have you been watching for the last 13 years? The Giants have won three World Series since the Yankees won their last.
I have no great hopes for the Yankees with Cashman still in charge. They need a lot of things, but what they need most of all is pitching, despite expressions of complacency from the front office about the state of the rotation. The Astros outpitched the Yankees in the ALCS with a collective 1.50 ERA to the Yankees’ 3.97 ERA. The Yankees could possibly win without Judge (especially if a better GM were assembling the team), but not without a better rotation — not in the postseason.
All Judge has ever experienced in his Yankee career is postseason futility. If the money’s comparable, I don’t see how this is even much of a contest.
A lot of valid points unless you’re a Yankees fan, I don’t think they appreciate your tone! Haha
I am a Yankees fan.
Happy Thanksgiving!