The Cardinals are one of the many teams to have been connected to free agent lefty Carlos Rodón. However, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that it’s “unlikely the Cardinals would shell out the years and money” that Rodón is seeking.
The fact that the Cards have been priced out of Rodón’s market isn’t exactly shocking. The latest report on his asking price indicates that he’s looking for a guarantee over $200MM on a deal of seven years or longer. That’s extremely rarefied air for a pitcher, with only a handful ever reaching either that length or that kind of guarantee or both.
The Cardinals have never given out that kind of money to any player, a pitcher or otherwise. They’ve never really come close, in fact. The largest contract in franchise history is the five-year, $130MM extension they gave to Paul Goldschmidt in March of 2019. The largest guarantee they’ve given a free agent is the $120MM they gave to Matt Holliday in 2010. The largest contract they’ve given a pitcher was the $97.5MM extension given to Adam Wainwright in March of 2013, whereas the largest guarantee they’ve given to a free agent pitcher was $80MM for Mike Leake going into 2016.
A deal in the $200MM range for Rodón would dwarf any of those deals, meaning that the Cardinals have to set an aggressive new standard to get it done, even in a vacuum. Outside of the vacuum, there are other factors that also make it unlikely. The highest Opening Day payroll in club history is $164MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are already effectively even with that record, according to the calculations of Roster Resource. The club’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has indicated that the club will increase payroll this season, but meeting Rodón’s asking price would mean going about $30MM beyond previous levels in 2023 while also adding significant long-term commitments. Between Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras, the Cards already have over $40MM on the books for 2026 and over $30MM for 2027. Giving Rodón what he’s looking for would come close to doubling those figures and have the club committing a huge chunk of their payroll to three players who will each be in their mid-30s by then.
The Cardinals also don’t strictly need a starter right now, as they have a number of rotation options. Their current crop of starters includes Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery and Dakota Hudson. There are some injury concerns in there but it’s still a solid group overall, with depth options like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson available if needed. Adding Rodón would certainly be an upgrade, especially after 2023 when Wainwright will retire and Flaherty, Mikolas and Montgomery will all be free agents. However, that group is also decent enough for the club to compete in the National League Central this year.
It’s always possible that Rodón’s asking price will come down if he fails to find a deal that he likes. As mentioned, it’s quite rare for pitchers to crack $200MM. Only six pitchers have ever gone above that line: Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke. Rodón has been quite good over the past two seasons but doesn’t have the track record to match up with those guys in their respective primes. Injuries have limited him to 847 1/3 innings so far in his career and he only just cracked 170 for a single season for the first time in 2022. Each of those other guys had multiple seasons of over 200 innings and well over 1,000 total innings. Starting pitcher usage has gone down in recent years but it’s still a significant difference.
There are many teams still interested, such as the Yankees, Twins, Giants and others. However, no one has met his asking price just yet. If it drops, perhaps the Cardinals will reconsider their pursuit, but it doesn’t seem to be the most probable course of events at the moment.
Don’t blame them at all.
Good for the Cardinals! Truth be told I’ve never have been so proud of them!
“unlikely the Cardinals would shell out the years and money”
I’ve been hoping for this… just seems insane to give a guy 7 years after only two partly healthy seasons… they way to good at drafting and developing arms for this nonsense
And nobody blames them for being smart.
Clip – So true!
Just think, the largest contract the Cards ever gave was LESS than the $140M Bloom gave Story.
That puts things in perspective right there.
Goldie has put up a .923 OPS in the first three years of that contract.
@fpg not to mention all the runs he has saved over there too before goldy you had to say a prayer before every throw to first. second when it comes to mo, ever since he has took over as gm/pbo he has a figure in his head and that’s it he’s not going to overpay to get a player. i’ll admit it’s frustrating at times especially when you hear they went somewhere else for a few mil more, then again he has kept us competitive and winning just wish he had better luck in oct.
I know they didn’t sign the deal and it’s being partially paid down, but it feels like we are burying our head in the sand when it comes to the Cardinals and mega deals without a mention of Arenado’s dollars
@before true nolan’s deal is the biggest but that deal was also made on mo’s terms.
Next report: “Cardinals agree to terms with Rodon.”
@Cleon Jones- no silly, only if Jon Heyman is reporting the story! -Carlito Rodon signs with the Cardinals. Lol
I hope so.
Rodon is a great pitcher, but doesn’t have the track record to warrant a 200M guarantee. If a team does give in at their price they will most likely regret it.
I want the Yankees to get him at a certain price but also think Rodon screams Patrick Corbin 2.0.
He’s either Corbin or Wheeler. Coin flip.
Then let’s hope he’s your boy Wheeler then(lefty version)
VonPurpleHayes;
Nah.
Know what you’re saying but Corbin and Wheeler never had injuries in their background. More that they couldn’t break through.
Corbin’s production has to be laid at the feet of the Nationals FO, manager and/or coaches. They constantly ruin pitchers. Max was the exception that went about it pretty much his own way.
Rodón has had about 200 innings of very good baseball in 8 years – many cut short by injuries. Scott Boras will get him $200m at least. Obviously it’s a gamble, but Mr. Boras finds the desperate teams, and shows them stats and projections that makes them think they’re getting Sandy Koufax at bargain rates.
The Nats won the world series with Corbin!
slider32;
Yes! And they used him out of the bullpen.
Now tell me how he’s done since, and how much money he’s being paid to do it. Do you realize that they’d love to trade him for 3 years but no team in MLB will take that contract? Do you realize that the Nationals have been the worst team in MLB for the past 2-3 years? Do you realize that the franchise is up for sale, and the contracts of Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg are big reasons why?
Personally, I feel they ruined the careers of Strasburg and Corbin in winning the championship.
They deserve to pay those contracts until the end.
Sure, sure.
But I don’t think they are the reason WHY the Nats are for sale.
Yes, Rodon signs with Yankers for 10/$400MM.
It looks like Rodon has so far priced himself out of the market. He’s gonna have to lower the number of years and money he and Boras wants or he’ll be watching the 2023 season on television.
I may be ignorant here, but something interesting I learned regarding these deals that may shed light on why they’re willing to push the years out longer despite the lower AAVs. I learned watching the Yes Network’s Michael Kay that these sports agents make more money for deals that are longer commitments than for overall value. I assumed, improperly, that it was based on either the total amount or the AAV. I didn’t realize the most important factor was contractual length for a sport’s agents pay.
@Yankee Clipper It would be odd if that were true for every agent. A player can make whatever arrangement he likes, given agents will aggressively compete for players’ business.. Commission can be based on
–total dollars
–AAV
–no commission, as in the case of David Robertson, who probably has ;the sense to have his lawyer draw up a standard contract for a flat fee.
–a flat fee, plus a modest commission, as He Who Shall Not Be Named arranged to do with his agent.
— [your arrangement here]
Okay, that makes a lot more sense. Perhaps Kay had the wrong information then. Or I may have even misinterpreted something he said.
great is an overstatement, good is debatable
Learn by Sale contract on what happens when you give a huge contract to a pitcher with a bad history of arm issues. It wont end well for the team that makes the mistake.
My thoughts exactly. I simply do not trust Rodon’s health. He’s great when healthy, but is the wrong guy to bet on long term.
Well said. I can see… 3/$75m, but his position player comp is someone close to Carlos Correa, to whom the Astros only offered 5/$160m.
7/$200m for Rodon might actually be a lot worse than the 13/$350m the Giants just signed Correa for.
Arm problems I can see, but a pinky? There’s a dark cloud hovering over that guy.
Samuel has me muted but BringToughness is right.
Just because Sale wasn’t hurt a lot with the White Sox, the whole baseball world felt his delivery/ mechanics were shaky long-term.
BringToughnessBack;
Sale never had a “bad history of arm issues” before he got to Boston. Quite the opposite.
Or just long term contracts to pitchers period – regardless of health prior to the big signing.
A pitcher like Strasberg leveraged the 2019 World Series to get the huge contract. He and the Nats have done nothing since.
The shorter high AAV contracts are where pitchers are at. Rodon is not getting 7 and if he does, that team is desperate.
AAV is likely too high. 7 years is insane. Other than that he’s the best option out there. Just discounting him to the Yankees.
Other than that.
No s**t
I’d much rather sign Dansby Swanson.
“Decent enough to compete in the NL Central” is the DeWitt Model. It would be nice to aim higher.
That said, even as someone who is aching for the Cardinals to stretch the payroll, I’m not sure Rodon is the guy to do it on.
I don’t think it’s the DeWitt model though. I believe it’s the Mozalak model. DeWitt makes a ton of money from the Cardinals, Arby’s, and other investments. I really don’t think he’s the one holding Mozalak back. But rather I think Mozalak gets a bonus incentive every year tied to overall profitability, and those big contracts may move him down a tier. Especially when, he has to overpay for players because St. Louis is their first choice to play in.
Mo helps make DeWitt a ton on money on the Cardinals. He’s as intimately involved on the business side as well as any GM/PBO in baseball.
For better or worse, Mo is doing exactly what DeWitt wants done — all the time.
Dylan Bundy still has a shot.
I dont think any real cards fans are shocked ..its not the way mozeliak works especially pitcher wise..
Pretty much leave only the Yankees in the bidding. Giants are out after signing Correa and can’t see the Twins gambling so much on Rondons shoulder.
The Mets haven’t done enough. They could really use Rodon and effectively swap him for the even more fragile, and elderly Carrasco by dealing the latter.
Instead it appears the Mets want to deal Carrasco and not actually replace him. The team under Cohen remains badly run. Imagine spending $285m in 2022 and not actually winning your division, but exhausting your elderly pitching staff in the process, not adding pitching at the deadline (instead dealing from your modest bullpen stock), then watching them collapse by season’s end.
What a foully run team.
Cardinals are (wisely) looking not at 2023 but at 2024, when Matz and maybe Dakota Hudson are the only major league starters under contract. They HAVE to either extend one of their current batch (which is probably impossible given the contracts pitchers have pulled down THIS offseason) or sign a free agent or acquire someone under control now just so they don’t have to completely rebuild a rotation next offseason..
Let them know Im available. I’d be willing to sign for rookie scale.
First, they can easily rebuild the majority of the rotation in one offseason if necessary.
Second, they very well might extend Mikolas and/or Montgomery with help from the money they won’t be paying Wainwright after next season.
Third, it doesn’t matter, since they can’t afford Rodon within their 2023 budget in the first place, even if his asking price falls to a more reasonable level. They simply can’t do something if the money just isn’t there.
They can easily afford a 200 mil plus payroll. and remain profitable. they just choose not to.
No, they can’t, otherwise they would. Their media revenue is still well below average.
Yes they can. Just like all other teams they got at least $120mm from national TV deals. They also get other revenue sharing and are in a billion dollar local TV deal. Add gate revenue, concessions, apparel, BP village, they can spend with anyone in the league. Mozalak chooses not to.
Your obviously not familiar with the cardinals business structure. They are very disciplined about profits. They were very similar to the Atlanta Braves who are a public company and whos numbers are available.
They could go well over 200 mil if Dewitt had a different mindset. They have always adjusted there budget to be in the top third of mlb teams. Where would that put them this year?
I don’t think it has anything to do with DeWitt. He’s pretty much an absent owner. He’s involved in the greater good of baseball development meetings, but as far as the Cardinals go, he spends his days in Cincinnati, hands off and let’s Mozalak run the show. If Mozalak wanted to pump up the payroll, I doubt DeWitt would stop him, it wouldn’t hurt DeWitts bank account one bit.
Poppycock. They’re media deal is at least average to slightly above — 100 million per year — plus the club owns 15% OF BSM.
And they’re one of the highest per revenue ticket (tix, concessions, souvenirs) for days at the ballpark. Which at 3+ million is a huge factor.
True, they’re not the Yankees, Dodgers. Probably not even the Cubs, Giants, and Red Sox.
But they’re not far below that group.
You can’t count money that every team gets in team payroll comparisons, and their $B TV deal is still below average compared to other teams. It’s only because of their great attendance that they can afford the above average payrolls that they do. You need both good attendance and media size to have the revenue to spend with the top teams. (Also, they don’t own Ballpark Village, so they don’t get any direct revenue there.)
On the other hand, if their attendance was more proportional to their actual metro area population, they’d be stuck with well below average payrolls of $120M max.
Spending in the top third of MLB teams would put them right where they are plus another $15M or so for the rest of their offseason shopping.
Also, they don’t adjust anything. They consistently spend at that level and no higher, because that’s exactly what they can consistently afford to do.
Besides, EVERY team is very disciplined about making a profit each year. That’s why MLB is a business!
Poppycock. Their media revenue is indeed below average, and nothing you say will change that. Even if their TV deal itself looks okay, there are other sources of media revenue where they fall behind.
Also, their ticket and concession prices are perfectly average compared to other teams. Like most teams, they use dynamic pricing with tickets as low as $5 (plus fees) up to similar prices found in other ballparks depending on the game and section. They also lose concession revenue compared to some other teams by generously allowing you to bring in your own outside food within certain limits.
Anyway, it’s simple math: Excellent ballpark revenue + below average media revenue = above average (but no higher) total revenue.
They totally own ballpark village, not sure who you think does, but it doesn’t make it look like you are informed about anything. It’s a partnership with the Cornish company. cordish.com/portfolio/ballpark-village
They also have around the 10th largest TV contract bringing in $66.6MM annually plus they own 30% of Bally Sports Midwest. Their tv contract brings them more annually then the Mets contract and is just $3.5MM annually less then the giants current contract. Add to that, they get at least $100MM annually through 2028 from the national TV deal (every team does). Just with TV contract alone they are at $166.6+MM in revenues before selling a single ticket or beer or anyone partying at ballpark village or any commercials being sold on Bally sports Midwest. Then add attendance revenues at an average of $50 a per and 3mm tickets that $150mm more. So more that $310mm in revenue, still not including BPV revenues, Bally sports ownerships revenues, in stadium advertising revenues nor mlb.com apparel sales and licensing revenues. So yes, they have plenty of money to have a payroll north of $200mm and still make a healthy profit. But Mozalak chooses not to. Because he knows better than everyone else.
Thank you sir. Remember Quintana was the game 1 playoff starter…lol pittsburgh was laughed at by Yahoo fantasy writers for pegging him as their OD starter and “trying to hide it”. Granted Quintana was solid but hes no way a game 1 or even 2 starter for a serious contender. If they like cheap good players Z.Gallen and S.Alcantara come to mind HAHA! I’m shocked Arenado stayed…he bought in to Mo’s “dry powder” speech for when they get dylan bundy, kyle gibson, or Matt Boyd as their “big” trade deadline deal. If Liberatore was good he would still be in tampa. You sir are spot on cheers.
Devlsh;
Cardinals are a good team that has Goldschmidt and Arenado at the corners. They have some nice young guys, but nevertheless were the worst team in the 2022 playoffs.
I’m not a lover of Mo, and looking at that teams roster and depth chart is why. There were times when they were out of catcher mound visits so the manager had to walk out to the hill and stand there saying nothing while Yadi talked to the pitcher and infielders. It was funny to watch. Without Yadi the AL Central can be won by the Brewers or Cubs in 2023. I wouldn’t project beyond that.
The Cardinals were at least the 7th best team out of the 10 who made the 2022 playoffs! They clearly had a better team than the Phillies, Padres, and Guardians. They just happened to lose two in a row to one of those teams, as can easily happen in the playoffs.
Lanidrac;
The Phillies played well against the Cardinals all year, and I figured they could beat them in the playoffs (in fact if the Phiilies had to play the Mets or Braves I doubt they’d have made it into the WS).
I believe both the Padres and Guardians were better teams at the end of 2022. For sure they had better managers and better strategies. MLB is not rotisserie league.
@lanidrac i remember before the playoffs started me and my dad were talking and he asked me about the birds chances, and i told him either we’re going all the way or we’re being knocked out in the first. imo i felt like all 6 teams in the nl had just about an equal shot of making the ws. i have to give credit to the phils no one gave them the nl they earned it.
They were clearly better then PHI, SD, and CLE? 3 teams that made it to the divisional series, two teams that made it to two the championship series and one team that made it to the World Series? They were the worst team in the playoffs last year. Any team would have eliminated them. Philly just happened to be the one that drew that straw. I’m a huge Cardinals fan, but happy to say not a drunk one.
Head to head record still doesn’t decide which is the better team. The Cardinals had the better regular season record and clearly the better talent on paper.
You highly underestimate the randomness of the playoffs. Philly just happened to win three straight series, two of them as clear underdogs, before their luck finally ran out in the World Series. Are you actually saying they were better than the Braves, as well?!
Also, any playoff team has at least a decent chance to eliminate any other playoff team, especially in a short series.
As for St. Louis vs. Philly, the Cardinals win that series at least 6 out of 10 ten times on average.
Besides, the Phillies *did* play the Braves in the NLDS and also beat them on their way to the World Series.
Better regular season record.. because they went something like 42-19 against the pathetic NL central. They by far had the worst rotation of any playoff team. Goldschmidt was gassed and had been slumping for over a month so outside of Arenado, there was no one to fear in the line up. So yeah on paper Wheeler/Nola, Harper, Schwarber, Hoskins, Realmuto, Bhom looked a lot better than anything the Cardinals could write down.
As a diehard Phils fan, there is little doubt in my mind that the Phils were one of the weaker teams in the playoffs this past season…although also one on the rise as the season went on. In my eyes, they were the underdog in every series. I always fear the Cardinals due to the way that they play; the Braves were definitely superior – actually the team that I felt best against was the Padres as I just don’t buy into their approach to team-building…even with all of their talent. And obviously Houston was better…far deeper.
But baseball, more than ever, is a “just get in and take your chances” and hope to get hot. Phils won it all in 2008 and were not the best team in baseball; in 2009 they were one of the best and should have beaten the Yankees that year. 2010 and 2011 they were a terrific team – probably the 2011 team was their best, and got bounced by the Cards in the first round.
This is a part of why the sport is awesome. Frustrating, but playoff baseball is the best show out there.
Wrong! The Cardinals had a very good rotation including Mikolas, Quintana, and, Montgomery that was better than multiple playoff teams including the Phillies. The Phillies may have had a slightly better Top 2 starters, but their rotation was very weak after that, and even then Mikolas is just as good as either Wheeler or Nola. If the Cardinals had won one of the first two games, they likely would’ve shelled the Phillies in Game 3.
Speaking of which, aside from having 2 MVP candidates, the rest of the Cardinals’ lineup was still pretty good with guys like Pujols, Edman, Donovan, Nootbaar, and Carlson. The Phillies got lucky that Goldy and Arenado were slumping, but they were still better than any hitters the Phillies had and could’ve erupted at any time. The Phillies had more depth in their lineup, but overall the Cardinals’ offense still had the advantage.
You included Carlson. Your argument loses all credibility right there. Mikolis pitched to a 2.4 whip with a 3.87 cup and a 116 ERA+. Wheeler 5.1 War, 2.89 FIP, 144 era+, Nola 6.0 WAR, 2.58 FIP and 125 ERA+. Mikolis is no where in the same league of pitcher as Wheeler and Nola.
Time to go get Michael Wacha. There’s not much else on the FA market to pick from.
I would be ok with that.
Cardinals can go sign Eovaldi. Yankees can bolster their rotation with Rodon.
Yes the back half of that contract will likely be bad, but if he helps pitch us to a World Series, then I’ll consider it worth it.
PinstripedPride;
LOL
Your thinking is why Scott Boars makes some of his clients wealthy beyond their wildest dreams…..
And why so few of the teams he does business with actually ever get to the World Series after signing some of his prime clients. The man is truly a living legend.
Boras is always going to be wealthy, and so are his clients, because he represents some of the very best players. His reputation and skills make him an attractive choice for an agent.
That being said, I don’t care about making Boras wealthy. I care about making the Yankees better than they were last year, and Rodon is our best shot at doing that. He’s a clear rotation upgrade over Jameson Taillon, while Nathan Eovaldi is not.
Sign both Rodon and Benintendi, and this team will be on a good path to win a pennant. Benny missed the playoffs, where he could have made a definite difference, and Rodon can anchor key games along with Cole.
Even with the best rotation, the Yankees still won’t win it all. Having Bader, LeMahieu, and good pitching isn’t enough to win it all because all the players aside from the two mentioned don’t contribute
Yeah, the Yankees haven’t really done much to turn themselves into a WS contender. They got off to a strong start this season, but the Astros, who will have the best record in the AL again next season, showed that consistency gives better results postseason.
If the Yankees acquire Bryan Reynolds and sign Carlos Rodon there’s definitely a good chance they can finally beat the Trashtro’s. We’ll see what happens.
I agree with you all, and unfortunately, the Yankees put themselves in a position to repeat the very same cycle they so desperately try to avoid by needing Rodon’s unfortunate contract.
However, I must say that IF Cashman can survive parting with prospects, I agree with Captain99, the Yankees team is very different with Reynolds/Rodon acquisitions. That would change the dynamic of both the lineup and defense.
I assume Cashman intends on making such a trade or similar, because simply buying one pitcher does *not* make the Yankees better than the Astros, and barely makes the Yankees better than last year at all.
But a roster with a full season of Bader, Cabrera, & Peraza, with the additions of Rodon/Reybolds? Although I wouldn’t be confident enough to say we are as good as the Astros, I would certainly say we are definitively improved and I like our chances.
He’s not going to get $200 mil unless Boras gets someone to bid against themselves. If the teams sit on it, there’s still a possibility the extra year and money drops off into the Cardinals price range.
True, but it also means a lot of teams will be waiting around for the price to fall, if it does. In baseball’s funny money, is he really worth more than something like 3/$75m? 3/$84m?
Stan: I agree and I think that’s precisely why Cashman offered $172MM. He’s saying, “try to beat it.” The unfortunate part is, the Yankees need to improve, so it’s a big risk with the team. Although I don’t think Cashman is too worried because he’s never really in danger of losing his job it seems.
If not Rodon, who are the Cards going to target in a trade?
To make a trade would likely require giving up some of our super prized prospects that no one values quite like John Mozeliak does.
Alcantara. They have the ability to swing it if they are willing to pay.
Carlos Martinez
You just about have to have at least 2 TOR starters to win the World Series. If Flaherty can come back strong and trade for Shane Bieber Cards just might win it all.
Toronto can’t even win with the staff they have, not sure why anyone else needs two of their starters to win a World Series. Though Manoah is an absolute beast.
Sarcasm? Or an fyi TOR is top of rotation.
Cleveland has already stated that they are not trading Shane Bieber.
Middle of the year it may be a different story
@bassrun Isn’t Lopez available from the Marlins?
Would they consider Carlos Carrasco of the Mets? He seems like a nice piece for the rotation. Also, there’s no way Miami is giving up Alcantara. If they did, STL would have to dump their entire farm system. I could see them targeting Pablo Lopez, however.
But there are some other pitchers still available on the trade market in the mid-tier range.
The cardinals traded Alcantara to the marlins theres no way they re-swap him.
I guess when you over pay for a catcher like WC it hard to get the owner to over pay for a starting pitcher. Look like Jed and Tom R were right
they didn’t over pay for Willson Contreras. That’s an ignorant comment.
I don’t feel comfortable with Contreras managing the Cards pitching staff. I wish they would have signed Vazquez.
why? do you have ACTUAL proof he’s bad at managing a staff? Because he’s had Soooo many Cy young winners to choose from in chitcago. I’m getting really tired of these statements. Chubs fans will do nothing but blast him now, all of a sudden he’ll be the worst catcher in history. I’m 100% certain John Mozeliak knows much better than you or I about how he manages a pitching staff. I’m glad they didn’t sign Vazquez. he was my last choice.
Someone always loses in free agency musical chairs. Last year it was Conforto who then got injured during the lockout. Is Rodon going to be the one this year? After a lot of the high and mid-tier pitchers sign, the teams still looking often don’t want to go to that price range.
It’s not necessarily an apples to apples comparison with last year since the lockout started right at the beginning of December before the Winter Meetings when the tide of signings started rolling this year, but it’s a similar idea.
This is a no brainer. I am convinced these reports are leaked by agents trying to convince teams they aren’t bidding against themselves. The Cards were never IN on Rodon. They may have checked the price tag, but then QUICKLY moved on. The Yankees are bidding against themselves. So were the Giants on Correa. It’s shady business practices at best.
DonOsbourne;
No…..
It’s a combination of greed and the inability to adequately calculate and accept risk management.
If Mr. Boras tells the buyer how good it’s going to be and cites the 20% of times it was for others……
Reverse the O’Neil-Marco trade and sign Brantley. That would be funny.
I like the Brantley idea mentioned it myself actually.
It’s a bad decision to give any starter more than 3 years but some teams are penny wise and pound foolish.
No starting pitcher had a higher k percentage per game than Rodon. Risky but so is any long term contract. I would definitely like an Ace on this team. Could free up starting pitching to be traded for a Left handed bat. I’m excited to see their approach.
Whoever isn’t as serious about landing Swanson between Cubs/Twins could be the one Boras uses to increase Yanks offer for Rodon.
The only teams that may pay the huge overpay in $ and years are the Yankees ( to satisfy their fans that they did something other than re-sign Judge) and the Giants because they have the money and they know him. I just don’t see anyone else wanting to give him a long term deal given his injury history.
stroh;
You’re talking about Hal Cashman’s Yankees and one of the 2 most desperate teams in the 2022-23 offseason (the Rangers being the other…..and they may well still be in on Rodon).
The board is set up perfectly for Scott Boras. We know he hits a HR, the question is whether or not it goes over 500 feet.
They have an average at best rotation going into 2023 before the inevitable injuries hit Matz, Flaherty and Mikolis. Wainwright can’t make it through the season. And next year looks even worse. So of course let’s stay away from signing legit ace type pitcher. Makes all the sense in the world. Keep up the excellent work Mozalak, you can tout your Contreras signing for a few years as you actually doing something of value for once.
And this is news, why?
This is so stupid. All of this is well known to anyone paying attention, long before we were rumored to be in on Rodon. Right when I saw the DeGrom deal, I said Rodon’s bidding will start at 7 yrs $200 million. That was long before there was a peep about us being interested. Surely our FO could predict this too. Every article that says the Cards aren’t interested is just a restatement of what we have or haven’t done in the past. Every one of these new deals is setting a new precedent. If we weren’t prepared to set a new self precedent with our own spending, then there shouldn’t have been a peep about Rodon.
Regarding MO’s statement that we have 6 starters, he also said we were set at SS, and 3rd base (back before the Nado deal).
They have 1/5 of this years starting pitching locked up for next year. Baseball is moving fast to high k% pitching. With the gold glove defenders on this team Rodon would be incredible. Fangraphs projects insane numbers for him. Yes I would want him. Also Yankees would have a much higher tax penalty that I’m sure they do not want to reach. Giants just spent a fortune. I really think this could come back to the Cards and I would not complain at all. In the playoffs… who is going to pitch twice in a series to lock up a win? This is the guy you want.
Still hoping my Yanks get him, but they can hold firm at 6 years/$150m and wait, as I don’t see any other team going that far, much less 8 years/$210 mil!
Whoever signs this guy will come to regret it very quickly
The Giants didn’t regret it last year. How many healthy cy young type seasons does the guy have to have?
at least 2 in a row! Whoever signs him to 6 + years will regret it quickly
He did. Whitesox and Giants.
Last year, Boras had to settle for a three-year contract with two opt-outs for Correa. Let him do something similar with Rodon, whose durability is an obvious issue. Boras is just doing his job trying to get his client a ridiculously long contract, but no team should cave.
@fink your right no team should cave but more times then not one team does and pay the high price. heck we’ve seen already this year with the money and length. i do see it swinging back to non record breaking deals soon because all these mega deals made these last few years most of them are gonna end up ugly.
@Fink- excellent point, those opt outs could really benefit Rodon and the Yankees. I wouldn’t mind a few opt outs if he signs with the Yankees. I just think Boras is just trying to get Rodon one last contract before retirement. That’s why he wants 7 years. Hopefully nobody gives in to those demands. 5 or 6 years seem plenty fair for him.
I’d be uncomfortable with 5 or 6, to be honest. The Yankees already have a lot of pitchers with injury histories. They’re already taking chances without adding a long-term contract to yet another one.
Unlikely. So you’re telling me there’s a chance.
Rodon will resign with SF with another opt out.
For a guy that plays in 20% of the games, 24MM a year is plenty, but that won’’t get it done in today’s market, so let the arrogant SOB go somewhere else.
Rodon isn’t an arrogant sob. Boras is. All this talk about these 11+ year contracts being a waste of time because those players will not be good towards the end of their contracts, those people must explain to me how they can see into the future. It’s pure speculation on their part. Even though it seems that every player has sustained some kind of injury that has landed them on the IL, there are those that keep themselves in playing shape and work during the off season to be ready for the next season. Has Judge ever had an injury that has taken him out of the lineup? I don’t know. The same for Turner, Bogaerts, etc. Bottom line is, you just don’t know how these players will perform in five, ten years from now.
Rodin has had two exceptional seasons in a row, both of which he has the ability to hit free agency after. So the solution is simple. Give him 7 years at $30mm per with an opt out after every season. Keeps him hungry to out pitch the contract every year while also making him have to think about not opting out if he has a great season but maybe not one that will pay more than he already has guaranteed.
That’s hardly a simple solution if he breaks down again. To the contrary, that’s a disaster that every potential suitor is mulling right now. Unless the opt-out is mutual (which it wouldn’t be), the team would be stuck with an injured pitcher on a huge contract.
Injury doesn’t really matter. Contracts are insured. Deal could even be structured where he gets an opt out option every year and it’s a mutual option with a buy out after the 3rd year.
Contract insurance is very expensive. Even with a large contract like that which would be worth insuring, you ultimately don’t get that much money back for a huge injury, and even if he stays healthy you still have to pay significantly extra over the value of the contract itself just for the insurance.
Besides, you can’t insure a contract against a guy who just plays badly.
Nope.
‘Unlike the NBA and NHL, Major League Baseball has no mandatory insurance policy that clubs buy into, insuring the five most expensive contracts on a roster should they miss a certain number of consecutive games. (In the NHL, it’s 30.) Baseball clubs must go into an open marketplace and try to purchase insurance on their own. . . .
‘Still, policies aren’t for every club. The Nationals have issued four contracts worth at least $100 million, those to Ryan Zimmerman (six years, $100 million), Jayson Werth (seven years, $126 million), Strasburg and Scherzer (seven years, $210 million). But people with knowledge of their thought process say they have found insuring such deals vexing and expensive. They haven’t done it.’
washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2016/09/09/worri…
An insurance policy for a pitcher already costs more than for a position player, and the cost escalates greatly for a pitcher with a history of injuries.
How about we start doing it this way… let him get his 7/210 and if he doesn’t hit certain peripherals then the team can opt out. They basically get a yearly opt out as well. All these underperformed contracts are ridiculous…. he will never fulfill a 7 year contract at an AAV of 30 mil… almost none do
Or maybe he out pitches the contract and chooses to opt out after year one, two or 3. Who is the loser there?
I dont think any team is gunna give him what he wants 7 years 200 mil desperate team will overpay i guess
cardinals missed out on noah
While I agree the Cardinals will not go that high on Rodon, I think the payroll numbers are incorrect. I thought the Cardinals received some money back from the Rockies when Arenado did not opt out.
@adam the rockies paid roughly 50 to 60 mil of that contract (it’s been a min and i don’t know the exacts but i know it was in that range) but overall it’s lower because the cards added another year at the end for around 20 mil as incentive not to opt out
Stuff like that is already accounted for in payroll figures.
Whoever signs him…it will either be like the Yanks signing Mussina and he having a HOF career or like Sonny Grey going from Oakland to NYYs.
@Viveleempireevil- I think Rodon definitely has the Moxie to pitch in New York, Sonny Gray was like a deer in headlights every time he had to pitch here. I think there’s a huge difference between the 2 pitchers. Gray was and is still afraid of NY, and Rodon seems fearless. Carlos wants to actually pitch in NY, and would probably thrive in the big lights.
In other news, water is wet, Pete Rose is still banned from MLB, and the Pirates still suck.
Negotiation ploy
Katie Woo also said the Cardinals wouldn’t sign Contreras… You got to take her predictions with a grain of salt.
Kinda like Jon Heyman reports?
I wouldn’t mind Nathan Evodali or Seth Lugo!! If we go the trade route maybe go after Pablo Lopez, Blake Snell or Shane Bieber
Cleveland has already stated that they are not trading Shane Bieber.
What is Rodon asking for. At least 6 years? What’s the money figure? 7/230?
Edit. Neh’mind didn’t see the money figure in the article.
He’s not an ace!!!
LOL what a hot take. Go review his stats for the last two years and try again.
The only team considering those years/dollars are the Padres . . . Or maybe the Browns.
He’s outpriced himself, no team will give him the 7 years he’s looking for and the 200mil. I suspect this will drag on until February or March when he will realize that no one will give him that kind of money. What will wind up happening is the team’s interested in him will pivot and sign someone else, thus shrinking his market. Greed always backfires.
Every Cardinal fan…….”Duh!”
Is this something every Cardinals’ fan didn’t know already? 2nd in free agent bidding, 3rd in the wild card, the Cardinals’ way!
another year for the cards to seemingly do all the wrong things
What the heck are the Cardinals waiting on to sign or trade for an impact Ace Pitcher and an impact Lefthanded hitter???
Mozeliak’s past games of set and wait until they come down to his value price range—- Are
Gone!! Past History type of approach!!!
Cardinals are done in free agency. Now they are banking yet again for youngsters to improve and shine. In other words, hit 30 points higher and cut back on strikeouts.
This is typical John Mozeliak!! Make a little early splash to improve the Cardinals. Make it sound and appear this is the year he’s actually going to build a W. S. Contender!!
Then look up and he’s sleeping in a corner somewhere. He won’t show his head, except to make excuses and talk in circles until the end of 2023.