Dec. 22: The Padres have officially announced Lugo’s signing.
Dec. 19, 1:33pm: Lugo will be guaranteed a bit more than $15MM on the contract and can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season, tweets Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. Heyman adds that the deal pays Lugo $7.5MM in 2023 before he’ll decide on a $7.5MM player option for 2024.
1:13pm: The Padres are finalizing a contract with free-agent righty Seth Lugo, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets the two sides have agreed to a deal. The Post’s Joel Sherman adds that the Padres plan for Lugo to join the starting rotation. San Diego and the division-rival Dodgers were reportedly the two likeliest landing spots for the Ballengee Group client.
Lugo, 33, has been a reliable member of the Mets’ bullpen for the past two seasons but has ample starting experience in his career and had been hoping to land with a team that would give him an opportunity to start. The Padres can likely offer just such an opportunity, as the fifth spot in their rotation behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Nick Martinez is currently unsettled. Left-hander and former top prospect Adrian Morejon had previously been seen as a front-runner for that spot, but he’ll now act as a depth option alongside minor league hurlers Ryan Weathers, Jay Groome, Pedro Avila and Reiss Knehr.
Over the past two seasons in the Mets’ bullpen, Lugo has turned in a 3.56 ERA with a 26.6% strikeout rate against a 7.9% walk rate and a 44.4% ground-ball rate. His average four-seamer has clocked in at 94.4 mph in that time, and while it’s possible that velocity will dip a bit when working in longer stints, Lugo has far more secondary offerings than the standard reliever. In addition to that four-seamer, he’ll also throw a plus curveball, a sinker, an occasional slider and a more seldom-used changeup.
That repertoire of four, if not five pitches, surely emboldened some teams to consider him as a potential addition to the rotation. Lugo has made 38 starts in his career — all of which has been spent with the Mets to this point — and once looked as though he might have a chance to solidify himself on the starting staff in Queens. However, a “slight” tear of his right elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament back in 2017 derailed his season.
The tear was minimal enough that surgery was not recommended, however. Lugo received a platelet-rich plasma injection, opted for a rest-and-rehab approach, and returned to the mound as a reliever in 2018. By the time required surgery to remove a bone spur from the elbow in 2021, his surgeon remarked that he was “impressed with how [the UCL] wound up” (link via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo).
With a clean bill of health and some quality recent results out of the ’pen, Lugo becomes an interesting upside candidate in the fifth spot of the Padres’ rotation. Moving him to the bullpen will always be there as a safety net, but Lugo has a 4.35 ERA in 194 career innings as a starter, and those numbers are skewed by a disastrous showing in the shortened 2020 season. From 2016-18, Lugo tossed 168 1/3 innings as a starter and recorded a more palatable 4.06 ERA. He hasn’t seen an enormous spike in opponents’ productivity when facing them a second or third time in a game; in fact, his opponents’ numbers have actually worsened when facing him a second/third time — though it’s unlikely that trend will continue.
Lugo’s $7.5MM annual salary will push the Padres’ 2023 payroll north of $240MM, while the team’s projected luxury-tax ledger will jump just north of $262MM, per Roster Resource. The Padres are currently lined up to exceed the tax threshold for a third consecutive season. As such, they’re paying a 50% penalty on the first $20MM by which they exceed the $233MM first-tier barrier, and a 62% overage on the next $20MM. The Friars were already more than $20MM over the tax line, so they’ll pay a 62% overage on Lugo’s $7.5MM AAV — a sum of $4.65MM.
Such penalties are seemingly of little consequence to an ultra-aggressive Padres club that has succeeded in high-profile pursuits of Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Xander Bogaerts in the past six months alone. Owner Peter Seidler appears steadfastly committed to his “championship at all costs” mindset, even if that means spending a total of $12.15MM (salary and luxury hit combined) on a fifth starter while including the downside (for the team) of a 2024 player option.
It’s a nice deal for Lugo, who’ll command the same type of guarantee many setup men of his caliber receive in free agency — but with the opportunity to opt back into free agency a year from now if the rotation experiment works out. Even if Lugo is ultimately moved to the ’pen for one reason or another, so long as he continues at his prior pace with the Mets, he could even opt out and land a larger commitment as a pure reliever next winter. And, of course, if he ends up injured or sees his performance completely crater, he’ll have the security of a substantial salary already locked in for the 2024 season.
I am guessing 2 years/$11.5M w/ a $500k buyout on a $6M option.
1 year 15 mil, with the opt out
1 year 7.5 or 2 years 15…
Manny you’re right, I went back and reread it
Well, I didn’t account for that 2022 off season premium on salaries but otherwise the ballpark was right.
Padres were also runner up
I’m guessing 5 Years/$110 Million, since it’s the Padres.
Calm down dude.
did you get excited in a candy store as a kid? let him have his moment..lol
Let the boy dream!
You beat me to my snarky comment about how AJ Preller works!
The only thing I can add to it is that the contract would be twice as large if Lugo needs Tommy John and will miss this next season.
As long as Preller has somebody else’s Monopoly money, he doesn’t care how he spends it and how it’s going to cripple the team in the future.
Considering he gave up a top outfield and top pitching prospect at the trade deadline and his additions really didn’t help the team other than get the fans excited, the Padres are on track to crash and burn. The hope is they get a World Series in between now and impact.
Sounds like you are pretty salty
If you did a little research you’d note that the vast majority of the time top-level talents like Soto and Hader work out far better than the prospects moved.
How would you define “work out?” If you were to tell me that Juan Soto’s best season as a Padre will be better than that of any of the guys he was traded for as Nationals you would probably be right. But the odds of Juan Soto producing more WAR on his own during his remaining club control years than the 5 dudes he was traded for combined produce in theirs are pretty slim.
And I am aware that Soto was traded for 6 players and had another player going to the Padres with him. Bell and Voit both ended up being pretty negligible and are no longer with the teams they were traded to.
csspackler, I 100% agree. That’s the reason why teams want a lot depth in the minors. The more prospects you have, the better the odds that some might be very productive guys, since most aren’t. The problem with the Padres’ farm is Preller had already depleted a lot of their depth before he traded 4 of their top 5 prospects.
Welcome back. Miss seeing your comments. You are absolutely correct. They work out better 90+% of the time.
Like when they traded Trea Turner for Wil Myers?
I believe the Padres recognize that the Dodgers are purposely taking a step back heading into 2023, with a goal of resetting their luxury tax, while looking forward to 2024/25 while also seeing how some prospects work out. Even the uber teams have to take a step back, as the Yankees did 2013-16 as they waited for Judge, Severino, Sanchez, Gleyber, Montgomery, etc. to arrive and worked into their lineup. The Pads, who have been aggressive, may view the next couple seasons as their window to the division if the Dodgers are purposely taking their foot off the accelerator.
The teams getting the prospects almost always wind up getting more WAR. For the right teams, surrendering future value for current value is a winning proposition, but they don’t usually recover overall value.
Roughly 5% of top 100 prospects ever have a single season with a 4 WAR in their career. 95 of those guys on the list never do. Less than 20% end up being a league average player (2.0 WAR) or better during their careers.
Close to 100% of superstar players like Soto, Betts, and Machado end up having multiple seasons of 4+ WAR after a trade.
If a team is getting 2+ seasons of a superstar player like Soto or Betts in trade, they are almost certain to “win” that trade.
Thanks for posting those numbers. I knew the odds were long for prospects, but didn’t know exactly how long. And while I agree that Soto was well worth the prospect capital that Preller spent, I still see an overall problem when a team trades away not just their best prospects, but much of the depth as well.
I’d think depleting the farm would mean that at some point they may not have much in prospects to promote, which also means very little in prospect capital to trade either. Not sure whether it means anything or not, but I find it odd that SD traded away prospect Trea Turner, and then later failed to sign FA Turner to a huge deal. It seems to me the Padres are heading towards becoming an all-FA team without much in home-grown players.
CHRIKES,i must agree.they should be ok for another 2 maybe 3 years.then its gonna be very shakey.im not up on there farm sysem.but i assume they are not in the top 10?
You would bee correct. The Padres farm system is in the bottom 10.
Their strength is pitching. Groome and Morejon will be in the rotation this season.
Then comes a group of recent draftees and international signees. Lesko. Snelling. Lizzaraga. Mazur. Other than Lesko, they should be MLB ready in 2025.
They will be adding the #1 Intl FA, a 16 year old catcher, in January. A kid so good that he might skip DSL and come straight to the US for rookie ball.
The thing Preller and his staff are best at is scouting. The farm system will bee just fine.
Preller is good at spending Uncle Peter’s money. That’s it.
Noone else is more overhyped for their “amateur scouting/ development” stature than AJ Preller. The dude is the most overrated thing in the history of things. His “top notch” scouting has brought the world what? Elvis Andrus? Jurickson Profar?
Don’t believe me? Consider these questions:
– How many AJ Preller finds have ever won an MVP trophy?
– A Cy Young award?
– The Padres spent the most $$$ ever in a single international signing period in 2016, name one of those players that even made it to the big leagues
– The Padres drafted in the top 10/15 for how many years? Where are all those players?
The Rangers back in the day and the Padres right this second are a product of free agency, I still can’t believe that people buy into the hack that is AJ Preller.
Sound like an angry dodger fan
It doesn’t take an angry Dodger fan to see the Padres don’t exactly crank out young talent. It’s great that they are competitive and have an owner who is quickly becoming beloved, but lets not confuse that with having a genius of a GM.
Soto,Musgrove, Tatis, Cronenworth, Nola, Hader, Pomeranz, Grisham, Darvish, Snell were all acquired via trade using prospects. Whatchu talkin about 99 bananas
Only one calling him a genius is you Scro. He pretty guhd tho
@Padres2019ha Tatis was acquired for James Shields. Pomeranz was acquired for Yonder Alonso and Mark Rzepczynski. Grisham was acquired for Eric Lauer and Luis Urias. None of them were prospects. Anything else you care to be wrong avoid today?
@Padres2019ha- Pomeranz was signed as a Free Agent LOL
LOL at James Shields being a “prospect”. He was just another guy that SD signed to a terrible deal that ownership agreed to eat,
Darvish was acquired because the Padres were willing to take on all of the ~$60m that was still owed to him and noone else would. The prospects involved were marginal at best
Cronenworth came with Tommy Pham who the Rays didn’t want to pay anymore
The Nola trade involved prospects but I’d bet Preller would rather not talk about that one LOL
You right thanks Ryambre. Your rain man skills at remembering no name players and ability to spell Rczyzzyenynipinskii are definitely, definitely impressive.
You gonna cry again and post “mods pls ban” again? Cryyyybabyyyyy
badtakesrus.com strikes again
Oof no fight in you anymore Ryan. So boring, no rizzzz
Can you please get banned again so you can change your screen name for the 4th time? LOLZ
That’s not nice. Not everyone can be the site owner’s nephew.
Lol I dont even know how to respond to such a strange accusation. For once I’m stumped. Maybe it’s because no one likes you? And your arguments aren’t interesting or insightful?
So wait you think “my uncles” employee Steve Adams is working on my behalf to ban you and call you out on a previous thread for using multiple accounts at once? Meanwhile you are the only who accuses others of having multiple accounts??
Tsk tsk you’re paranoid Ryambre.
Definetly, definitely off your meds.
Hey Uncle, how many other accounts does West coast ryan, Red rooster, harambe and( )have?
My arguments aren’t interesting or insightful? That’s rich coming from you lol. Your takes are worse than Pads Fans, padreforlife, nowheretogobutup, stymeedone and hiflew’s combined.
You’d make a decent politician w your diversions.
Won’t even deny MY accusations. Rich. I predict that will be your new screen name. Until then it’s Ryambre the Fraud
Padres2019ha the Unknowing
The Legendary Fraud who keeps chugging shamelessly
Sounds like you don’t like a lot of people on here…or vice versa
Prior to the 2015 season Preller traded away most of a #1 rated farm system to attempt to contend right away. Obviously, they didn’t contend. By the 2017-2018 offseason the Padres once again had the #1 farm system.
That is because of his staff’s skills at scouting.
Can you name any of the international free agents signed in the 2016-17 class by any team that are in the majors? Remember, almost all of those kids were 16 when they signed.
Of the 22 players signed by the Padres in that class, 9 made it to the majors. 5 are expected to play in the majors in 2023 barring injuries. That is so far above and beyond what any other team produces from international FA as to be practically unheard of.
In international free agency you are basically signing high school sophomores and juniors to professional contracts, so to have 41% make it to the majors is a mind-boggling level of success.
That you don’t know how good that was is why no one pays attention to your comments. Its why you are the only one that ever likes your comments.
Sounds like you haven’t had a single good take the entire time you’ve been here. Preller was never able to find a taker for your boy Myers.
@websoulsurfer But how many of those 5 will be playing in the majors in 2023 as Padres?
Who’s your boy? Nobody. Your takes are only to question everything Preller does so again nothing insightful and Preller has built a contending team. You’re an insult to Padre fans because you are not one.
I probably been a Padres fan longer than you’ve even been alive lmfao. And you don’t have to blindly agree with everything the GM does to be a fan.
And Preller has made some good moves so not quite “everything” he does.
Then stop acting like a 12 yr old. Only punk kids use lmfao
Lol you telling others to stop acting like a 12 y/o. Like, based on the way you talk and act I’d hope for your sake that you’re about that age.
Yawn
Get some sleep. It’s past your bedtime.
Using my line…nice.
I’m about to go to bed. I don’t stay up all night commenting on multiple forums using multiple accounts in between early morning video game binges. Nerd.
Lmao as if you didn’t steal that from someone else. And as if you didn’t try to steal “rizz” from me.
And it kinda sounds like you do stay up all night commenting on multiple forums using multiple accounts.
My 13 y/o nephew thinks “nerd” is an insult. The rest of us… yeah.
But hey, it beats you running and hiding like your buddy PF/outinleftfield when you get called on your bad takes. Praise be to the notification system.
Pomeranz was acquired in a trade with Oakland in 2016 the first time he was a Padre. Then he was traded to Boston for prospects. Then after playing for Boston and Milwaukee for 4 seasons he was signed as a free agent prior to the 2020 season. So you were both right.
The Cubs paid $3 million of Darvish’s contact. The Padres gave up Davies and no one else of consequence. The Padres also got Darvish’s personal caddy Caratini.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/padres-to-acquire-yu-darvish-victor-caratini.html
You should consider research instead of haterade that is not close to what really happened.
What most people are missing is that it doesn’t matter if prospects end up playing for the team that signed them originally or are traded for proven players.
Teams can’t trade prospects they don’t scout, identify, and sign.
No one can say that the Padres are not good at doing that part. The Padres can fill up their farm system with quality prospects as fast and as well as any team in baseball. Preller has proven that.
You can argue that they are not good at trades and have a halfway decent argument. That is an entirely different conversation.
Hey wait Padres2019. I use it all the time. And Im a semi-retired old fart.
What you are is “Pads Fans” on a burner account.
Lol
So 7.5 per year.
14 years 450mil
Noooooooo! Lugo made me everything I am today!
Looks like all the morons making jokes about Lugo signging elsewhere were wrong.
Making an inaccurate guess about the destination of a player being pursued by several teams makes people morons?
No, recycling the same meme joke in every post makes people morons.
Dodgers can’t beat Padres at anything now.. We Ride!
Padres have zero championships bro.
The Pirates have more championships too, doesn’t mean they’re better than Padres now?
The Dodgers have half a Championship in the last 34 years……. That’s not exactly insurmountable numbers for the Padres to overcome.
Giants steppin’ up…
And then falling on their face. Is that why you changed your name?
#thelegendary; that’s not what I changed it from.
#BaseballisLife; Part of my issue with Farhan, is his dishonesty. The ‘injury concern’ was from an injury from before he was in MLB, that everyone knew about and it wasn’t an issue for anyone, including the Giants… Until AFTER making a huge offer and putting public pressure on the player. If I was Correa, I would have been pissed. No free agent or fan should trust Farhan at this point, imo
Is that why you changed your name from WatermelonMtnScout?
im not a dodgers fan.however they are built for longgevity.the padres are gambling that,they can get a championship in the next 2 years, before it blows up.if i was a gambling man,and im not. i wouldnt put money on the padres winning a world championship.the rays,mariners or rockies have a good chance for a world championship too.oh,but those 3 teams dont have a championship either.
Man it’s gonna be so satisfying watching some of you idiots eat your words
You speak in Absolutes Damascus. Why don’t you prove it. You can’t. All you are doing is guessing, just like everyone else.
Why don’t I prove that the Padres will make you eat your words? I mean, they did just that this past season, without several key players(Tatis, Bogaerts, Pomeranz, and didn’t have hader and Soto for over half the season).
They shut everyone up in the playoffs, lost no one of significance, and improved.
To say that we are “just guessing” is all wishful thinking on your part.
Now if you’re referring to my comment on them going to a 6 man rotation again and then moving Lugo to the pen after, that isn’t guessing. Both Melvin and preller both said they liked the results and will go back to it, whether it will be Martinez or Lugo heading back to the pen is the only stipulation.
Damascus: “Gonna” is an extremely suspect verbiage to use. Why don’t you use “will” or “going to” means you are not very confident. And I don’t blame ya, bud. I’d be weary to as a San Diego fan. It happens dude. It’s going to be OK. Wanna hug?
GhostOfKevinElster, I think you mean ‘wary’. Unless of course you actually are tired, then I guess I’d be wrong.
Tad2b13,
No, I am just not very smart. I do know my faults though. Thank you for the kind words. Hug for you.
@slimray. You won’t put money on the Pads long term, but Seidler plans to. And in MLB, $ commitment wins, it’s a fact that used to frustrate Padre fans, not anymore!
Really wish Avila got a longer look as a rotation piece. Knehr is an ok swing man to have. Still need 1 or 2 pen gyys esp lefty
What don’t u like about Hader, Pomz, Hill and the other 3 LH in pen?
Pomeranz is a pretty big question mark with all his injury issues.
Apparently he’s been throwing without issue though, he’s still in the mix
I am excited for him to be back and productive. We definitely need more than just Tim Hill as a lefty before the ball gets to Hader.
Be nice to see Castillo fit in, stay healthy fo once
Castillo
After a really good AAA season, the Padres held Castillo out of Winter League ball. That was a curious move to me.
Will be nice if pomz is back and healthy, cause he was a machine when he was healthy
I wonder if they’re doing that to try to avoid him getting injured again. He’s missed so much time with injuries, they probably want to play it safe.
This was his first healthy year in many years, they had him on a limit, and apparently that was the main reason he didn’t get called up end of last year
He has had so many injuries that I am sure the Padres wanted to take no chances of him getting hurt in Caribbean this winter.
Hader is the closer.
Pomeranz has missed time last 2 seasons for health reasons
Hill is fine. Would like to add a higher velocity lefty option coming out of the pen.
Can never have enough arms. Injuries happen.
Hill has basically been the only situational lefty in the pen the last 2 years. Hader is awesome but he is a closer, so it doesn’t really weigh into getting out left handed hitters in the 6,7,8 innings.
This conversation is about viable LH – Hader is sure thing to close, Hill situational. They need another among Pomeranz, Castillo, Morejon (if he doesn’t start) to fill the needed third LH role in pen. As insurance they might need to add another lefty, or work in Groome or Cosgrove.
On the right side, they have Suarez (set up), Luis Garcia, Baez, Avila, Crismatt.
A solid pen for sure, and if Pomz is healthy, it’s elite
Something to factor in here is that Suarez is very effective against lefties.
Batting average against him for LH last year was .181 and for RH it was .172. His FIP on LH was 2.72 compared to 3.59 on RH, implying he might have reverse splits over a larger sample size.
Definitely, good info as usual CN
Bruh the Seth Lugo starter experiment has been done, and not well.
The Madre’s are desperate
3rd place shouldn’t talk
it’s true though, and you were in third place not too long ago. don’t forget.
Sounding like a grade A dodger dik with that comment
You have a Giants fan, a Padres fan, and a Rangers fan with the original comment. Where in here do you see a Dodgers fan?
I was referring to the “madre” verbiage from the SF fan.
It’s probably time to place some blame all the new Padres fans that have come out of the woodwork.
8 rings > 0 rings
We talk whenever we want. Sit in the corner and listen. Know ya role
Hopefully ya’ll are relevant in 2023
Remember when you thought you’d win 100+ in ‘21 and then finished 29 games back lmaaaoooo. And we celebrated in front of your dugout? Know ya role
I never thought that, but good luck next year. Ya’ll gonna need it
Remember the most recent season when y’all literally had no relevance?
You should just hope you don’t have another useless season
How are the padres desperate? Literally performed better than 95% of the league when it mattered. You wanna talk desperate, look at the giants, after the manaea deal, the Correa deal, the giants are desperate
Lugo’s 4.35 ERA and 4.28 FIP as a starter makes him better in his 38 starts in the majors nearly all 5th starters last season. That is what he will be as a Padre. A #5 or #6 starter for a team that used a 6 man rotation last season.
Chances are Lugo is used as part of an opener/piggyback situation. Lugo is a very good starter the 1st two times through the rotation and has put up a 3.59 ERA and 3.33 FIP through that point, so piggybacking with another starter makes sense.
Maybe the idea is that the Padres use Morejon, an immensely talented young pitcher that is on innings limitations, as the opener for 3 innings with Lugo coming in and pitching 4-5 innings behind him.
Aloha folks, I give the Padres credit, they see an opening for 2023, possibly take their division. I admit, I wish Willy and Happ had landed there and given them a chance to go further in the post season. Hopefully Soto comes back to his previous levels. Xander is a nice addition. Mahalo!
On second thought, after seeing the 15 million guarantee over a year, I am glad Texas didn’t sign him. He would still be better than Pérez at the rate he is getting, but not by too much.
7.5 its 15 for 2 i think
I just assumed the was a combination of the next year’s pay and a buyout, but I was wrong. I guess this is a steal then. Texas should have been in on it. What a difference a year makes!
$15M over two years
Lol so their 4/5 guys are Martinez/Lugo on the back of super injury-prone Musgrove and Snell?
Yiiiiiikes
Exactly how is Musgrove super injury prone?
Was injured at least half of every year from ‘12-‘18
So 5-10 years ago. Seems relevant.
Of course it’s relevant. Pitchers that have been hurt get hurt again. One of the oldest maxims in the game
You prob didn’t know who Musgrove was before they traded for him, did ya? Lol. He’s been riddled w injuries throughout his career
Musgrove and Snell injury prone?
You’re not a baseball fan, are you?
Snell has cracked 25 starts twice in his career. He’s always hurt
“Gmoney” use google before you comment it may save you some embarrassment
Sorry you don’t know ball breh. Gobble more no-ring dong tho
Haha that was pretty good
If the dads get that ring, ya’ll are gonna be hurting for some new material
He’s not a good starter.
Lugo has just 38 starts over 7 seasons in the majors. He has been so effective out of the pen that he has not been given much shot to start in recent years. His last start was in 2020
His 4.35 ERA/4.28 FIP as a starter are decent for a back of the rotation starter. His 3.59 ERA/3.33 FIP the 1st two times through the batting order is middle of the rotation. He is just not a starter that goes deep in games.
You’re really stretching with that one. I have no problem with the signing, since he is generally a quality pitcher.
But he has a 4.88 as a starter since 2016, and has only 7 starts in the past four seasons, with a 6.15. He’s a good #6, but I would not expect a lot of starting from him.
Lugo has a 4.35 ERA as a starter for his career and 2016 was his rookie season. So, you are wrong about his stats.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=lugose01&year=Career&t=p
Trying to use 7 starts as a basis for any measure of player performance is ludicrous, especially when you are talking about 2020. Spring training was truncated, the season didn’t start until July, and 43% of all players had stats for the season that were 50% above or below their career averages to that point.
Yeah, honestly the padres will probably pick up someone like Miley or Wacha, then run a 6 man rotation with Lugo and Martinez, then stick Lugo in the pen once they move to a 5 man rotation
He’s been a mediocre starter, at best, and a well above-average reliever. Padres say they’ll give him a shot at starting, but that’s how teams sign players—misleading them about how they expect to use them. He’ll likely end up in the bullpen where he’s effective.
Teams that win don’t mislead players. Why would they purposely tick them off? That doesn’t lead to their best performance.
The Padres will start Lugo. Likely in a 6 man rotation. They are also likely to use him in a piggyback situation like they did Martinez last season which will give him the best opportunity to excel, since he won’t have to go through the order 3 times.
If he moves back to the pen late in the season, it will be because another starter really stepped it up and the Padres have moved to a 5 man rotation. .
They probably will give him a shot at starting, when the padres use a 6 man rotation.
He will be back in the pen around the ASG
They got plenty of money to spend especially since Machados for sure opting out
Machado will just end up resigning back with the padres, so your comment is irrelevant
I reckon if they didn’t have confidence in the ability to resign or extend Machado due to financial limitations then they would not have signed Boegarts to a $280M commitment. Boegarts is a solid addition but I think that even Xander’s mom would rate Manny as a more valuable player.
Maybe they want both?
What about Julio Teheran!? Can he beat out Martinez for a spot?? Veryyyyy interesting indeed.
Padres had more than 5 spots last year for starters. They will start as a 6man rotation and maybe piggy back to get 7 in there. It worked out for them because it helped keep the bullpen healthy deep into last year. Melvin and I think Preller mentioned they were interested in trying that again this year.
Lugo piggyback with Morejon? Or Groome piggyback with Morejon to make up that 6th slot?
Probably Morejon, until trade deadline when they sign a #1-3 level SP
Looked up Lugo’s stats the 1st two times through the batting order and a piggyback situation seems likely.
The stutter step on his windup irritates me. There, I said it.
Wonder who is next to go among higher leverage set up arms? Ottavino? Good get for SD, especially if he is deployed right
I will predict that Lugo will exercise that player option.
Hopefully for the Padres he does because it means he was a bargain this year.
That’s what AJP hopes for too…
I hope not. That means he didn’t have a very good 2023. I am hoping his 2023 season is so god that opting out is a no brainer. 26 starts, a few games finished, and an ERA around 3.20.
I should have clarified. Do you mean the player option to stay a Padre or to opt out and become a FA?
Starter money is ridiculous this year, so a $15 mill deal for a marginal fifth starter doesn’t look completely insane. But yeah, I agree that the player option will get exercised.
His deal is $7.5 million for the 1st year and then he can either opt out or play 2024 for $7.5 million.
Let’s rename Legoland to Lugoland! Welcome to San Diego, Seth!
I laughed
Not bad. Not a great player but a solid contributor. I was expecting some team to massively overpay but not a bad deal at all. Could be a #6 starter if they count on him for only 4-5 innings max.
That is the plan with Morejon/Baez/Cristmatt piggybacking and “stretching” in 2023 with an eye of claiming SP reg jobs in 2024
Or at trade deadline mid 23
I’m no fan of Preller. I often question his moves. But this is a good signing. A solid bullpen piece that can spot start at a reasonable price, Kind of wish the Giants had signed Lugo.
Nice signing. Inexpensive, and like Nick Martinez, Lugo provides versatility to start or go to the pen.
Morejon has wicked stuff and is the future and will get starts this season, but he needs to be extended before he can really be part of the regular rotation. Maybe 8-10 starts/opens this season and then into the rotation full time in 2024.
Groome is probably the first guy called up and from attending one game in El Paso in late September against the Dodgers farm and watching film of him pitching for El Paso in 4 other games the 2nd half it looks like he is ready.
Not sure what happened to Weathers. He went from a control pitcher to a guy that is walking 4.2 per 9 IP and giving up bombs when he gets into the stretch. He doesn’t have the stuff to be a strikeout artist, so he needs to have great control to succeed. Hopefully his daddy can help him get his head and his FB fixed up. Padres may have need for him if the 36 year old Darvish or Snell get injured this season.
I’d feel better if Groome lost 30 pounds and got fit.
Did you see him pitching for El Paso? You can still see those archived games on MiLB.tv.
I read that he gained a lot of weight since being drafted by the Red Sox and also lost some heat off his fastball. So how did he look to you?
I’m guessing the Pads want to find out this year if Morejon is the future and they’ll give him a shot to prove it, maybe in long relief / piggyback role similar to what Martinez served last year.
Too much money for a decent middle reliever and bad starter.
This is probably the best signing I’ve seen this offseason and I think Preller is an idiot
The best signing for the Padres or the whole offseason?
What am I missing on Lugo? He’s a decent middle reliever. 3.48 ERA/3.63 FIP/9.2 K/9 but then lackluster results as a starter.
Boxberger has better numbers, pitched in higher leverage situations and signed for under $3 million
Why not look at his recent numbers and not just his entire career, which started lackluster mixed with forgettable starter number.
Last year he was probably the Mets best setup man.
Him and Martinez will probably start, padres use a 6 man rotation, then either Lugo or Martinez will shift to pen
Because his career numbers are almost identical to last year’s numbers lol (career numbers are slightly better)…
2022: 3.60 ERA/3.76 FIP/9.6 K/9 / 1.169 WHIP
Career: 3.48 ERA/3.63 FIP/9.2 K/9 / 1.164 WHIP
How about actually looking up his numbers before asking that question
damascusj;
Don’t care for the Padres, but you’re correct on all your posts.
RodBecksBurnerAccount and others are getting all bent out of shape about semantics here.
Lugo is going to be used as…
An opener; a bulk innings pitcher; a long reliever – whatever people want to call it. The fact that he starts the game as opposed to coming into it in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th inning is no big deal. Fact is the man cannot pitch 3 days in a row out of the pen, and even is pushing it doing 2 days in a row due to physical conditions he has. So if the Padres tell him he’s going to pitch regularly every 5 or 6 games, that’s a load off his mind and he can prepare for it. He’ll probably wind up throwing the same amount of innings and pitches as the last few years, as some games he’ll be pulled after 2-3 innings.
Due to the mental aspect, he may well be more effective in this role as opposed to pitching out of the bullpen.
@Samuel: yeah I know you and I have had our fair share of squabbles in regards to the Padres. But I do feel like he will benefit from the padres 6 man rotation early in the season, then he can go back to being a great middle reliever, since he won’t even be needed as a setup man anymore
Boxberger sucks. And when you look at the asinine money every GM has given out then this is a great deal for a backend of the bullpen arm. If you exclude his numbers from starting this guy has been great. The player they got for the dollars was the best deal of the offseason so far. Shrewd deal for them.
damascusj;
Nah, I think he stays a starter / opener as long as he’s healthy and performing half-decently. Same can be said for the other 5 guys.
It’s a long season. Injuries happen. Guys’ having bad seasons happen. Rule of thumb used be that a team needed 7 starters opening day, with 2 starting the season in AAA. It may be more
now.
MLB teams make transactions 2-4 times a week during the season. At this time no one can forecast what will be by late May, let alone the entire season.
Lugo didn’t make a single start in 2021 or 2022. All you can do is look at his career numbers. For his career he was better than most #5 starters, which is what he will be for the Padres to start the season. His numbers the first 2 times through the order are really good, so piggybacking him with someone like Morejon makes sense.
True, Samuel, I think it comes down to who, between him and Martinez, does better in the starter role. If either of them excels in 1,2 or 3 inning appearances, then that one will move to the pen by the ASG, similar to last season.
damascusj;
You’re assuming the other 4 guys will stay healthy all season and pitch well.
Chemo: I just showed you that argument is BS. His career numbers are better than 2022 numbers. He’s had two good years as a reliever (2018-2019). The rest of his career he’s been a decent reliever.
Correct, he didn’t make a single start in 2021-2022. He’s made a total of 12 since 2018.
You have to give credit to his agent he was able to double his salary by saying he could give some starts.
Chemo: You cannot exclude his numbers from starting if he is supposed to be a starter for them and that is why his salary is higher than a decent middle reliever.’
Boxberger had a higher WAR, much better ERA, nearly twice as many Holds, and a higher K/9, He is much better than Lugo.
MLB average for relievers was a 3.86 ERA/3.86 FIP 9.02 K/9 and 1.28 WHIP.
So you are saying Lugo is a well above average reliever?
Ya’ll forgetting we ride with 6 SP… Teheran/Avila/GROOME (RedSox fans going to lynch their GM)/Wethers/Khner/Poppen and others will be competing for Starts.. not to mention Morejon and Baez getting stretched out… Pads Bridging the gap to 2025-26 when Muzr/Lizarraga/Lesko/Snelling/Williams and Wolf aka SDP top Farm arms are all challenging for SP spots…
The Royals coulda shoulda done this. This is the type of arm and contract they should be popping.
A good guy and good pitcher. As a Mets fan I enjoyed rooting for him these past years and wish him success.
Good on the Padres. I like Lugo, he’s an intriguing pitcher
I just think Preller is not a good GM. Peed away his minor league system and will never win.
It’s a top 10 farm by this time next year because AJP and staff are adept at draft and Intnationals
They are going to sign the #1 international next month. The player they didn’t include in the Soto deal was Jackson Merrill. He was injured a lot last year. He played winter ball and the scouts said he was the best player there. Preller does “piss away” the farm but he is a lot better than most GMs at scouting and building it to begin with.
You may be just salty because you like the pirates and watch a team that tries not to win…
I could swear they were in the NLCS last year and the WC in 2020. Was I mistaken? Isn’t that winning?
It’s fun being a Padres fan now.
I know right?! I love Peter seidler, finally an owner who isn’t afraid to spend
Well, last season was a step in the right direction, with basically just Machado for most of the year, not having Tatis, Soto and Xander with Machado, and largely the same pitching staff, saying they will never win just sounds like a bitter dodger fan
damascusj;
George Steinbrenner put together teams like this almost every off-season. One time he went 12 or 13 years without making the playoffs. The game is still played on a field.
With all the buffo names the Padres brought in the past year or so, the most important two in my mind are Bob Melvin and Ruben Niebla. They had a great influence in how that team performed in 2022. Having Mike Shildt and Matt Williams around as coaches along with some others surely isn’t hurting.
Agreed, Niebla I had some skepticism at first, but hearing from Hader how Niebla really got him dialed in and really helped develop his pitches, that man will be our new Darren Ballsy.
I’m looking forward to how he works like Lugo, Pomeranz and continues working with Suarez, Martinez and morejon.
I like this signing because it seems like there is some really good upside here. My main concern is how many innings do you realistically get out of Lugo if he starts?
Lugo threw 41 innings in 2021 and then 65 in 2022. If he’s taking the ball every fifth day, that would put him on pace for a workload that’s like 150 to 180 innings, which is a lot more than he’s used to throwing. I have a feeling he’s going to end up around the ~106 innings that Martinez threw last year from being in a hybrid role.
Padres don’t run a 5 man rotation. He is taking the ball every 6 day probably. Then he gets moved to the bullpen when his innings start getting up there. Everyone in padre land today on twitter were saying similar things that they may sign another pitcher this off season.
Maybe a trade with the Marlins for pitching help.
As a Mets fan I liked him and hope that he does well (except against us). He hasn’t been the same pitcher since he got hurt in the World Baseball series.
He’s a middle reliever, and not a starter. Maybe an “opener”. But don’t count on getting more than 4-5 innings out of him per start. You’ll see a down tick in his velocity which will make him very hittable. His curve is still good, but not as great as it was before 2020. And his other pitches are just not good enough to work for a starter.
And finally, you better hope that his elbow doesn’t fall apart. No idea how it will hold up to 20-30 starts at 80-100 pitches, but I’m guessing not well.
I don’t think the Pads are finished setting up the rotation. 1 more move is coming.