With the Winter Meetings fully underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:
1. Will the logjam at the top of the market loosen?
Even after Trea Turner and Justin Verlander came off the board, much of the top of the free-agent market could hinge on Aaron Judge. With the full attention of two major-market teams on Judge — the Yankees and Giants — some players at the top of the market may not sign until the reigning AL MVP has made a decision. Carlos Rodon, for example, has received interest from both the Yankees and Giants. It would be reasonable for him to want to wait until Judge makes a decision, in case missing out on Judge puts additional pressure on the losing bidder to get a deal done with him. Brandon Nimmo, the second-best outfielder on the market, is in a similar position. While Turner signed ahead of Judge, it’s certainly possible that the rest of the shortstop market could be held up by Judge, too. The Giants are known to have interest in Carlos Correa, and the Yankees could conceivably pivot to the shortstop market should Judge depart. That could also gum things up for the Twins, who are aggressive in their attempts to retain Correa but could pivot to Xander Bogaerts if Correa leaves. The Cubs, meanwhile, have been connected to each of Correa, Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson, with rumors yesterday even suggesting they could try and lure two of the three remaining shortstops to Wrigley. Though not as frequently connected to the shortstops as Chicago, the Cardinals have been mentioned as a potential suitor (for Swanson in particular), and the Dodgers could potentially look to replace Turner now that he’s agreed to join the Phillies.
2. Will the Cardinals find their catcher?
Yesterday, St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters that the team hopes to have a new starting catcher by the end of the Winter Meetings tomorrow. The Cardinals have been connected to A’s catcher Sean Murphy, as well as free agents such as Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez. The Cards are sure to have competition on all of these fronts, however. Murphy is being pursued by the Rays and Guardians, among other teams, while Contreras has been linked to the Astros repeatedly, with manager Dusty Baker noting the team’s interest. Vazquez, meanwhile, is known to have more than half a dozen suitors and may pursue a pact for as many as four years this offseason. Should St. Louis miss on these options, they could pivot to free-agent catchers in the next tier, such as Mike Zunino and Omar Narvaez, or they could swing a trade with the Blue Jays, who are open to dealing a catcher with three on their roster: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno (with Jansen the most oft-rumored name to be available).
3. The MLB Draft Lottery is tonight.
In addition to the usual hot stove rumblings that accompany the Winter Meetings, at 7:30pm CT this evening, the inaugural MLB draft lottery will be held, where the top six spots in the 2023 MLB draft will be decided. The Nationals, A’s, Pirates, Reds, and Royals each have at least a 10% chance of landing the top pick in the draft, but every team that missed the postseason in 2022 has a chance, however small, to pick first in next year’s draft. Looking at the larger lottery as a whole shows that Washington, Oakland, and Pittsburgh have an 81% chance to pick somewhere in the top six, while the Brewers, the team with the best record to miss the postseason, have just a 2.1% chance to pick in the top six. Be sure to check in here at MLBTR throughout the day today for all the latest coverage and analysis of the Winter Meetings. You can also download our free Trade Rumors app on iOS or on Android and set up notifications for your favorite teams or any players of particular interest!
They should just make every draft a full blown lottery, with every team getting equal chances. It is tIme to give draftees a chance to be drafted by better teams and stop rewarding the bottom dwellers
I’m sure you follow a team with a high payroll. The small market teams who can’t compete with that needs some way to compete, otherwise there will end up only being eight teams in MLB.
Definitely would be more than 8. Basically every team that’s outside of a central division would be fine. Even then you’d still have untapped markets that could be big like Vegas, Nashville, Portland, etc
Charlotte would be good too. Their AAA ballpark is nice and full a lot.
Gotta say I like your handle, especially since that is where most people are despite all the noise out there.
Basically every team outside of a central division??? The three teams notorious for frustrating fans with payroll are Oakland, Miami, and Tampa.
8 teams per league, 16 total in mlb.
16 VERY LOADED, VERY TALENTED teams!
Just like the GOOD OLE DAYS OF BASEBALL.
Split squad Double headers daily 324 game season players can only play 162 games. If you missed time on the IL you can play both games that day to catch up on schedule for 162.
Except it rewards bad teams whether they are high or low market.
I’d be fine with an equal chance at the #1 pick for all non playoff teams. If you make the playoffs no dice though.
Small market teams actually get punished for making the playoffs under the current system. They use their young players to get good then lose them because they cannot pay them. Meanwhile their draft position decreases due to getting good and as such the rebuild cycle takes longer.
All the leagues give the worst teams the highest picks for a good reason.
Every team outside the central wouldn’t be find. Just look at the tv deals. Teams making 10s of millions off tv can’t compete with teams making 100s. With no small markets the mid markets become the small markets.
While you may think that, most likely what would happen is a player would be blocked by a regular player on a competing team.
Bad teams promote quicker
Then spilt the local tv money down the middle as well..
@Cody1981 Most people don’t want to share their money with someone who has less. Yankees and Dodgers are a business not a charity.
Every team has an equal chance to be selected first, just there is more equity provided to teams that perform worse in a season. These players generally then go through years before they see MLB experience. At the end of the draft, not sure it makes much difference aside from improving teams that performed poorly and giving them a fighting chance in the coming years.
I think the two teams with the best records that didn’t make the playoffs should get picks 1 and 2, then the tanking teams can go after that.
That way all the ~500 teams will still fight through September to try to get the top 2 picks, and the teams not even trying wouldn’t have a chance.
Wouldn’t be surprised Mozeliak leaves the winter meetings tomorrow empty handed.
At least your guys have the possibility of doing something.
Mine have absolutely no shot.
As a Marlins fan I feel your pain.
Key word: Possibility…It’s sad what the Reds front office has done to their fans. Reds and Pirates fans deserve sooo much better. Even Marlins fans deserve soo much better.
you mean all 15 marlins fans?
Small market sets you behind the eight ball at the start, but small market plus bad management equals big ouch for the fans.
I’m sure he’ll come away with some journeyman relief pitcher and tell everyone he had a lot of good conversations with a lot of different organizations and agents. Then we’ll get the speel about how they were all just out of reach at this time after looking at the acquisition cost compared to existing in house option.
Step one complete. It’s like this has happened before.
The Guardians are expected to be the top runner up in the draft lottery.
No different than any free agent they’re in on.
& here he goes again….you are more closer of striking it rich before the guardians get any top free agent.
True they don’t have the cash…like about 20 or so other teams.
So now that teams found out the high cost of acquiring Murphy they just jacked up the price of the free agent catchers. Its a good time to be a free agent catcher this year with so many teams desperate for a catcher..
The teams actually discovered that there’s now a high cost for every available free agent player, catchers included
Giving Turner an 11 year contract or Verlander 2 years at almost $50 million and he’s 40, guarantees teams desperate for any position player or pitcher will be paying out of their backside to complete their respective needs
The cost of a good catcher is expensive. look at Astro’s catche rnot the best hitting catcher but makes that pitching staff better. Calling of a game and knowing your pitching staff is under rated in MLB.
I really don’t like the draft lottery. I get its appeal, I just don’t want MLB to become like the NBA….ever!
I love it. Something else to talk about and put on tv. The players wanted it so it helped to get baseball going again. Of all the things to dislike about the nba the lottery isn’t one of them or low on the list.
Yeah we can get the viewing excitement of someone opening envelopes of a predetermined event. I shiver with anticipation.
As long as you watch it is what matters. I won’t but I will read the results.
In case the sarcasm didn’t come through there, I won’t be watching. But I am not much of a prospect guy anyway. Once these guys get called up to the majors, then I will pay attention to them. But for now, all of them are just names on a page.
I dislike everything about the NBA. The draft lottery is the only thing mentioned in this article.
With Turner getting 300 mil…Swanson is getting at least 150+…maybe even up to 200. Braves probably walk away from that.
I thought that before and regardless of what Turner got.
I believe Swanson is leaving Atlanta. Anthopoulus has been there long enough that you can kinda see his M.O. He’ll be aggressive and overpay for a pitcher on a short deal, but he holds a line on position players. He’s not scared to do long deals for position players, but they’ve all been below market. And if there was one guy I thought he would’ve broke pattern for, it was Freeman. He didn’t.
So I think the only way Dansby comes back is if he doesn’t find a deal for more than 140m. To me, that seems unlikely. And honestly, I’m okay with that if that’s how it plays out. I don’t think they’d miss a beat with Arcia at SS *if* they find a quality bat for LF. I’d also rather they spend the money on Max.
Harris needs me.
Poor guy.
Bring on the lottery, to liven up the Tiger’s post season. Oh boy, well after last season who knows where they;ll go. ? Getting a top pick can’t hurt though, come on 7/11.
^^^ this guy^^^
Sucks to be the Mets, Cardinals, Rays and Blue Jays.
Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera: Am I a joke to you?
Knizner’s bat is a joke yes…Herrera needs a few years before being considered MLB ready, he proved that in his brief call up. Andrew is a perfect backup.
As a Cards fan my preference for a catcher would be
#1 Murphy
#2 Jansen
#3 Vazquez
Of all these I feel like Jansen is the most likely as he will cost less in prospect capital and I feel like his style of play and personality would fit in St. Louis. Is it just me or does he remind anyone else of the late great Darrel Porter, with the glasses and all!! I also feel like any trade to the A’s for Murphy begins with a minimum of Gorman and Liberatore, with a couple more high end prospects like Hence or Graceffo in there to. That’s to steep for my taste right there. What say y’all!!?
I think Vazquez or Naverno. Keep the prospects.
I say run with what you have for a year. See what Knizner does with the new role. Use the savings on pitching help especially in the BP. And maybe give Swanson a look
I would like to see a system where Teams over salary cap have no shot at top 6 pick. Teams that didn’t make the playoffs get 3 lottery balls each, and playoff teams under the salary cap get 1 lottery ball each.