Months of rumors about the Marlins’ rotation have finally resulted in some action, as the Marlins have traded right-hander Pablo Lopez, top infield prospect Jose Salas and outfield prospect Byron Chourio to the Twins in exchange for reigning AL batting champion Luis Arraez, per announcements from both clubs.
The core of the trade, for immediate purposes, will see the Twins swap out three years of Arraez for two seasons of Lopez, who’ll immediately be an upgrade to their rotation. The 26-year-old Lopez has come into his own as a quality big league starter over the past three seasons, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate, a 7% walk rate and a 47.4% ground-ball rate in 340 innings.
Lopez has dealt with some injury issues in his career, thrice landing on the injured list due to shoulder strains. The most recent of those three injuries came in the summer of 2021 and wiped out more than two months of Lopez’s season, but he was injury-free in 2022 when pitching to a career-high 180 innings over the life of 32 starts. Last year’s performance netted Lopez a still eminently affordable $5.45MM salary. He’ll be due one more raise in arbitration in the 2023-24 offseason before reaching free agency following the 2024 campaign — barring an extension, of course.
The newly acquired Lopez will step into a Twins rotation that also includes Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle. Though it was easy to wonder whether Lopez could push Kenta Maeda into a bullpen role after he missed the entire 2022 season on the heels of internal brace surgery on his right elbow in Sept. 2021, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes tweets that Maeda will remain a starter.
The likeliest odd man out of conventional five-man rotation is 27-year-old Bailey Ober, but the towering righty has pitched to a sharp 3.82 ERA in 31 starts to begin his big league career — including a 3.21 mark in 56 innings last season. (Ober missed more than three months due to a severe groin strain.) Alternatively, the Twins could look to deploy a six-man rotation that would help them manage Maeda’s workload and hopefully lead to better health among a starting staff that was generally hampered by injury throughout the 2022 season.
Meanwhile, with Arraez now subtracted from the Twins’ lineup, they’ll lose their leadoff man, one of their best hitters and one of their primary options at first base and designated hitter. His departure likely opens the door for 25-year-old Alex Kirilloff to slot in as the primary first baseman. Kirilloff, a former first-round pick, ranked as one of the sport’s 10 to 15 best prospects prior to his big league debut, but he’s now undergone wrist surgery in each of the past two seasons, derailing the start to his career. There’s quite a bit of upside there, but quite a bit of risk as well. It’s always possible the Twins look to add another established hitter to help soften the blow of losing Arraez, but the first base and DH markets in free agency have been largely picked over, so if that’s the route they choose, it’ll likely have to come via another trade.
On the other side of the swap, the Marlins will get a left-handed bat to help balance out a heavily right-handed lineup. Arraez brings to Miami perhaps the most impeccable bat-to-ball skills in Major League Baseball, having fanned in just 8.3% of his plate appearances since debuting as a 22-year-old back in 2019. He doesn’t walk at an especially high clip, but Arraez’s mark of 8.7% is still higher than both his strikeout rate and this past season’s league-average 8.2% walk rate.
Arraez, 26 in April, hit .316/.375/.420 with a career-high eight home runs in 2022 and is a lifetime .314/.374/.410 hitter in the Major Leagues. His contact skills are second to none and will likely always allow him to hit for a high average, but the rest of his game is rather limited. Arraez is lacking in power, evidenced by a career .096 ISO (slugging minus batting average), and his average sprint speed is below average, per Statcast.
While he debuted as a second baseman, defensive struggles have left Arraez as something of a position-less nomad. He’s bounced between second base, first base, third base and left field, delivering lackluster defensive grades at each of those spots other than first base. He’ll primarily play second base in Miami, with general manager Kim Ng subsequently announcing that Jazz Chisholm Jr. is moving to center field.
Like Lopez, Arraez has some worrying injury issues on his resume. A torn ACL during his prospect days torched his 2017 season, and he’s been on the injured list three times since Opening Day 2020 due to knee troubles as well. Arraez also spent a week on the 7-day concussion IL in 2021 and missed nearly three weeks of that season due to a shoulder strain.
Arraez is arbitration-eligible for the second time this offseason and, as a Super Two player, still has two years of arbitration remaining beyond the current campaign. He and the Twins couldn’t come to terms on an agreement prior to last week’s deadline to exchange arbitration figures; the Twins filed at a $5MM mark, while Arraez’s camp countered with a $6.1MM submission. Now that he’s with a new team, it’s possible Arraez could agree to a one-year deal somewhere between those points, or perhaps even discuss a lengthier pact. If not, his subsequent arbitration raises will take his salary north of $10MM by his final year of club control, in 2025.
For the Marlins, dropping Lopez from the rotation positions them to deploy a starting five of Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett, with several intriguing arms still waiting in the wings behind that quintet. Arraez will deepen and strengthen what’s been a lackluster Miami lineup, and the organization’s rotation depth is strong enough to withstand the loss of Lopez.
There’s little doubting, however, that the defense will suffer from both the acquisition of Arraez and last week’s trade of Miguel Rojas. The Marlins now look set to play Joey Wendle at shortstop, while Chisholm will have to learn a brand new center field position on the fly. Overall, the gambit of dropping Rojas and adding Arraez in the name of balancing and improving the lineup could have the unfortunate side effect of dropping Miami from a middle-of-the-pack defensive club to one of the worst in the National League.
The prospects in the deal are both long-term plays for the Twins, making them somewhat curious secondary pieces for a team that’s clearly bidding for immediate contention in the wake of their stunning deal to re-sign Carlos Correa. That said, recent trades for Mahle, Gray and others have thinned out the Twins’ system in considerable fashion, so backfilling with some youthful talent helps straddle the line of building for both the short- and long-term.
Salas is particularly well regarded, originally signing for a $2.8MM bonus and currently ranking fourth in Miami’s system at Baseball America. He’s a shortstop for the time being, though BA’s scouting report suggests a move to third base is possible, depending on the extent to which his still-lean frame grows. The switch-hitting Salas batted .250/.339/.384 against vastly older competition in 2022, splitting the year between Class-A and Class-A Advanced despite only turning 19 this past April.
Salas connected on nine homers and swiped 33 bases in 109 games. Scouting reports on Salas tout his work ethic, his feel for contact and the potential for at least average power. He’ll immediately become one of the Twins’ top overall prospects, but he won’t add any value to their 2023 club (aside from perhaps giving them more flexibility when it comes to negotiating additional trades).
Chourio is even younger, having just signed as an amateur out of Venezuela one year and five days ago. Despite playing the season at just 17 years old, the switch-hitting outfielder took the Dominican Summer League by storm, raking at a .344/.429/.410 clip with a homer, nine doubles, 19 steals and nearly as many walks (25) as strikeouts (27) in 217 plate appearances.
Chourio won’t even turn 18 until May, so even wildly optimistic projections would have him three years away from being a legitimate big league possibility, and it’s quite likely that he’s even further off than that. Still, there’s plenty to like about him despite the lack of proximity to the Majors. In addition to his eye-catching pro debut, Baseball America’s Ben Badler touted Chourio’s physical projection, strong throwing arm, center field instincts and balanced swing when reviewing the Marlins’ international signing class last year.
Today’s trade puts an end to months of speculation and rumors regarding Lopez, who finally knows where he’ll spend at least the next two seasons of his career. It remains possible, given Miami’s depth and the needs they have elsewhere on the roster, that they could further tap into that group in an effort to bolster the lineup and reshape an increasingly questionable defense. On the Twins’ end of things, Lopez isn’t clearly better than any of their in-house options, but they’ll add another mid-rotation arm to a starting staff deep in comparable talents, helping to safeguard against injury and adding some stability beyond the current season, when each of Gray, Mahle and Maeda can become free agents. They’ll also restock a farm system that’s been taxed by recent trades, but the swap feels more like a next step than the final piece of an offseason puzzle.
Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic first reported the two teams were progressing toward a deal involving Arraez and Lopez. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the deal was done. Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald reported the names of the two prospects going back to Minnesota (Twitter links).
What a fleece! I know it’s ignorant to post before knowing all the details, but still! 2 years for 3 years of a guy with an elite BB/K ratio??? The guy had a 3.75 ERA in a low offense year. 108 ERA+ in 2022 and a 106 ERA+ in 2022 vs a 130 OPS+ in 2022 and a career 120 OPS+
Even if there are others, Lopez being the centerpiece is a great deal for Miami.
I’m not sure exactly how they figure it, but Luis Arraez has 3 years, 121 days of service time and Pablo Lopez has 4 years, 93 days of service time.
Yeah. You need quite a few days to get super 2 status and even more (172) to get an additional year. Look at bref’s free agent year and subtract a year. That’s the year of the last season. Offseasons count as the next year somehow.
I never in a million years ever thought the Twins would trade Arraez. A batting champion and perennial .300+ hitter for a pitcher whose ERA is high. A definite win for the Marlins.
Using batting average and ERA for comparisons is so 1995
The first part, yes. Use OPS+. The second part – ERA+ and ERA in general do evaluate past performance. K/BB and FIP/SIERRA or whatever project into the future, but ERA isn’t as idiotic as batting average. Also, that’s more like 1895.
Batting average is irrelevant. Arraez’ skill is getting on base, and he does that well. But no power and no position to play. The kid the Twins got from MIami is 19 and already really good. Shocked they got that guy in this deal.
He’s not an ace, but he’s a great pitcher who will be better in Minnesota statistically than Miami. The Twins defense is going to make him an even more effective pitcher.
Arraez has great plate discipline. However, he’s terrible defensively and doesn’t hit the ball with any authority. Guys like that will eventually get pitched to rather than walked. Lopez has a very low spin rate on his fastball and gives up soft contact. If his shoulder problems are behind, he could be a great rotation piece. A definite win for the Twins.
I don’t have to look at all those garbage numbers. I use my eyes to tell how good or bad a player is, just like it’s always been done before analytics – useful to only team’s coaches, managers and fo. All the fans need to know are ERA, so, bb, ba, hr, 2b And 3b. If you put these precious analytics to Cobb – arguably the best player of all time – it might show ridiculous flaws in his numbers. Without analytics, how oh how did players like Cobb, Ruth, Mathewson, etc. ever play in the majors leagues? With the Manager’s eyes.
If ba is irrelevant, then why does MLB use it to determine the batting champion. In that case, analytics are irrelevant.
Batting average isn’t that important. It matters, but you need 4 singles to get a run with all slow slap singles guys. That’s why other stuff matters too, like walks, making productive outs, homeruns, doubles, and, to a small extent, defense.
I never said BA was irrelevant. Like OPS, good and bad metrics exist under the surface.
@Avenger65:
Is that you Mr. Flintstone?
Nah… more of a Dino than a caveman approach I’d say
I actually believe BA is relevant. I’d rather have a JD Martinez over a Giancarlo Stanton. A more recent example is the Braves thinking they were a smartypants allowing Freddy Freeman to walk and replacing him with Matt Olson. Good pitching will always beat slugging, but a hitter who can slug is worth his weight in gold.
Because all of those guys were great, and analytics confirm that.
A 25 year old “perennial” anything is quite a thing. But yes, somewhat of a surprising trade.
Arreaz is a special player in this day and age, and his trade is noteworthy. He’s popular, good at his primary skill and adds a lot of stability to a Twins roster that had huge injury problems last year. The trade mostly calls out the fact that he’s not perfect, and they’ve got questions about his role, about his health, and about the long-term chances to keep hitting the way he does. OTOH Lopez is also facing some questions regarding health, effectiveness and if he can return to top form. The fact that good prospects flowed north implies that the years of control plus the deeper concerns about Lopez were a bigger problem.
Meh, Arreaz’ career high for walks is only 50. He swings early and often.
Actually 4 singles equals 2 runs if you got speed on base.
Yes. Thus, you need more than just average. That’s my point.
and a huge win for the other AL Central teams!
Lmao “to a small extent defense”
You’ll love watching the rangers butcher the baseball again! May I suggest the White Sox too?
Anyone who brings up ‘the eye test’ in 2023 as the only thing he cares about, probably failed 3rd grade math and doesn’t understand them.
It’s fine to say that scouts (not you, but scouts) used to use their eyes to make decisions, but why would you ignore data that adds to what your eyes tell you?
Pretty sure productive outs (moving runners along) and baserunning skills (going first to third, scoring from 1st on a double etc) are the flaws in wRC+
And yet somehow teams still won in 1995.
Maybe it’s about talent assessment and value.
Stats are nice, too, but they don’t answer every question.
Getting on base turns a subsequent solo homerun into a 2 run dinger. The contact skills of Arraez are elite, and his numbers last year are spot on with his 4 year career stats. He’s no fluke. Carew, Boggs, Gwynn et al weren’t knocked for their lack of power. And I thought I remember reading that Arraez was a Gold Glove finalist at 1B. Very entertaining and a fan favorite as he works in the batter’s box.
Really surprised MN didn’t hold out for a nastier pitcher with more contractual control and upside, like Cabrera. Another #3 starter just adds to the pile they already have. But maybe the prospects they’re receiving will pan out.
Chicks…and execs dig the long ball, it seems.
Most people aren’t arguing that BA isn’t relevant, and if they are, I would argue they are wrong. OBP doesn’t tell you what kind of on-base they received, and OPS considers OBP and SLG equally, which doesn’t really make sense for most players. There is nuance to baseball, that’s why we love it, right?
ANY hit is better than a walk, because even on a single a runner COULD go from first to third, or second to home. So yes, I would say that BA is relevant, but just not as relevant as people thought prior to 20 years ago.
And personally (irrelevant to this argument), I’d rather see a line drive to left field than watch as 7 pitch walk.
BA/OBP is even more relevant with the throwover limitations changed to 2 per runner and larger bases, shortening the length between bags, making it easier to SB. Combine that with extra innings putting a runner on 2B to start — and speed/OBP should make a comeback with wild RP that have high BB-ratios less attractive and more susceptible to blown saves.
Actually, three singles get a run in. Men on second and third…would a walk and hit be equal?
These “batting average doesn’t matter” arguments are soooo easy to refute, even on a DB. I’ll take guys who hit over guys who get on base every day.
Bhambrave ahaha that’s great.
My idea here is if you have David Ortiz clones or Prince Fielder clones, you need 4.
Other stuff does matter, but you do not need 4 singles to score a run or each run.
@avenger I for one think WAR and other metrics are terribly over rated. Just my opinion, but sometimes simpler traditional metrics are fine. I’ve never bought into reducing a player’s value to a single number, as if that number is an infallible tell-all. I don’t think analytics are irrelevant either, they just don’t tell the whole story.
Yes. Absolutely. I guess I was making a very very extreme point. Usually a single and a double or vice versa work or 3 singles. Still, some guys could be really slow.
But he generally makes contact when he swings.
IF ARRAEZ KEEPS HEALTHY, MARLINS GOT THE BEST OF THIS DEAL . Luis Arraez is a proven consistent hitter throughout his career (both Minors and Majors) – who has the inborn ability to sniff out hits, spraying line drives across the field. Not a home run-hitter (something difficult for all at Marlins Park), but someone who gets on base often, and who is a batter impressive at not swinging at bad pitches. Also, a very good fielder, as in terms of defensive skills, ARRAEZ finished 2022 with the highest UZR/150 amongst first basemen with at least 500 innings
Funny you mention that cause I was thinking “30 years ago a 3.82 ERA would not be called sharp”
The game has changed, Lopez is a borderline “ace” today where statistically he’s a 3-4 thirty years ago. Must change your valuations with the times, as I admittedly struggle at times. The true value of the trade is in the prospects, for 2023 it’s a bat first glove at home player for a high 2nd tier pitcher. I’ll say on that face Twins win the trade. If either of those prospects have their name on a Miami MLB jersey in 2024 I’ll feel different.
Actually 1 single can get a run.
Single
Stolen base/passed ball/wild pitch/other
Advance on 4-3
Sac fly
I can design endless situations like this. Players going 1st to 3rd on a ground out. Then score on a ground out.
Miami is the one giving up prospects.
Baserunning runs above replacement
Twins traded a guy whose numbers at this stage very similar to Rod Carew. Terrible move Twins
Twins traded a guy whose numbers at this stage very similar to Rod Carew. Terrible move Twins .
When the average ERA in MLB is 3.96, having an ERA of 3.75 does not put you anywhere close to being an ACE.
Branch Rickey was using analytics besides those lame ones you listed decades ago.
So you like guys who make more outs is what you’re saying?
BA factors twice into OPS (or OPS+), and walk rate factors in once. For what it’s worth.
Big time head scratcher. I’m not buying any argument that this works out well for the Twinkies.
A lot of what MLB does is tradition. Batting average dates back to a time when it was thought to really matter. I also wouldn’t say batting average is irrelevant by any means. It definitely doesn’t carry the same weight it once did, though.
If Vogelbach joined Ortiz and Fielder clones loading the bases on singles and the batter hit a would be sharp single to left, we might get to see a 7-2-5-4 Triple Play instead of any runs scoring.
@Wampum I want to transfer 30 likes to this comment here.
@Kenny Who are you responding to? Loaded questions aren’t going to get responses. Try this: do you hate hitters who walk and hit homeruns? Do you want them to stop at first on a single?
The Twins sold high on Arraez. How many more batting championships will he win in his career?? My guess is zero.
Wait…wait…wait…4 singles to get a run??? LOL. Even late-stage Pujols could hobble from 1st to 3rd on a single to RF. With SBs becoming easier, you could argue that you could get a run in 3 batters with 1 single and 2 outs — with 1 SB and 2 sacrifices. Point is: you’re terrible at baserunning if it takes you 4 (!!!) singles to = 1 run. Acuña has scored from 1st on a single, if I remember correctly.
Thank you for setting him straight, Sackball. I am sure he will take it to heart this time and never, ever use BA or ERA ever again on these boards. Thank you so much for being the Stat Police though, we only have 500 other randos on patrol to make sure everyone is in compliance.
I have seen Kendry(s) Morales go to first on a double on which a guy has scored from first. He is really slow. The idea is if a guy can do nothing in the world right but hit, that’s your situation. Maybe only a few guys can be that slow, so yeah, it’s over-exaggerated.
For clarification, do you think a walk or a productive out is more useful than a single?
No, of course not. I’d still take a .400 OBP and a .275 BA over a .330 BA and a .360 OBP.
I think your exact words were “batting average is irrelevant”. No big.
So do eyes. Analytics weren’t available back then. So how do you figure analytics matter?
If a player can field, hit, throw accurately, steal bases, etc. but analytics show that he’s not as good as all that, would you walk away from that player? I’m saying that analytics are not the be all and end all.
What about dudes?
Finally! Someone who kind of gets my point about analytics.
Not much.
To a time like ten years or so?
He was on same career track as Rod Carew
Arraez is roughly league average on defense at 2B over 4 seasons. If you take the last 3 seasons, he is slightly above average and improving. OAA also shows improvement and his being league average at 2B over the last 3 seasons.
His career OPS+ is 120, as is his wRC+. He is not just a singles hitter as evidenced by the 31 doubles he hit last season.
This is the guy you want leading off for your team.
Lopez is a mid-rotation starter. Last season he was 8% above average with a 108 ERA+, and his K% and BB% were just a bit better than league average as well. His 3.71 FIP and 3.71 SIERA were in line with his 3.75 ERA, so what you saw last season is what you are likely to see from him this coming season.
He is a guy that hopefully will come in and give the Twins 160+ innings of sub 4.00 ERA starts. That would be huge for them.
This is a trade that fills the needs of both teams.
Is that why you are almost always wrong? The teams themselves are certainly not dumb enough to rely on their eyes. That is why they invest so heavily in technology to measure performance and analytics to tell them what that tech is telling them. Maybe take a page out of their book and learn the stats.
BTW, Cobb is near the top of the list in nearly all the analytics you so despise.
ERA and any counting stats are useless without more information. Rate stats are always better. Advanced analytics are always better than rate stats.
MLB doesn’t name a batting champion.
A single with no one on base is worth exactly what a walk is.
There are times a walk is far preferable to putting the ball in play with men on base. Hitting into a DP instead of taking the walk. Hitting into a fielder’s choice instead of taking the walk. Remember, about 75% of the time that a ball is put in play, it does not result in a hit.
SLG% measures the quality of the hit, giving greater value to XBH. XBH are more likely to result in runs. Because of that it is measured equally with OBP in OPS.
Stats like wRC+, or weighted runs created take all that into account, plus the ballpark the games were played in and then adjust for league averages to show you how that player compared to his peers that season. It’s better than any of the old school stats in measuring a player’s value at the plate.
And yet you didn’t refute it at all. Try again.
Keep flaunting your ignorance avenger. Your eyes are garbage.
Wait… ERA is worthless? For the future, maybe you have a small point. For the past, what else matters for starters? Relievers do need to have half their inherited runners scored count for ERA to smooth that out, but why the hate against ERA? A guy with a .5 K/BB ratio who has a 2.5 ERA over 30 innings was good but probably won’t be good. What do you mean?
Batting average was big back in the deadball era. Today it’s only important in 5×5 fantasy leagues. Although it is a fun stat no doubt. And it’s rare to see a guy like Arraez who has a skill to consistently hit for a high average.
One, your eyes have never seen Cobb or any of those other players you named. So by your logic you don’t know how good those players are without analytics. And 2, the “garbage numbers” you refer to all say that those guys were the greats of the game.
@BrightSide
It’s a false statement asserting “Braves thinking they were a smartypants allowing Freddy Freeman to walk”. The Braves made an offer to Freddie Freeman, it’s got nothing to do with the Braves if Freeman asserts he didn’t know what was going on. Furthermore, if Freeman loved the Braves he should have made it his business to know what was going on, and not leave it to third parties to make decisions on his behalf, which is what happened if you believe what Freeman has had to say on the matter. There, I fixed it for you.
I can’t stand this every time I see it. Yes using the literal percentage of time a batter gets a hit and the literal amount of runs a pitcher allows per 9 innings is soooo irrelevant to evaluating a player and making comparisons.
I’m sure the Marlins just glossed over his batting average without paying attention to it when deciding to pull this trade, don’t be so ignorant!
Gr9One: Lopez’s 5.00+ second half ERA would not make him an “Ace” at any time in history.
Lopez has never been good enough to be considered an Ace.
@fivepoundbass – Yep, Batting Average accounts for a good two-thirds of OPS. But, yeah, BA doesn’t matter anymore.
But it’s not that relevant. You can have many better guys with lower batting averages. Would you say that Arraez is the best hitter in the AL or Judge? Be serious. Compare their OPS numbers.
ERA is a far better predictor of future ERA than ERA predictor FIP is.
Throwing out 70% of pitchers’ data point on the premise that all batted balls that do not clear the fence are nothing but luck is stupid. If that were true, you might as well watch Plinko – you will be equally entertained.
I get that the hits per nine is stupid, which is why I would say FIP/SIERRA/whatever you use. However, I would focus on K/BB, WHIP, and homeruns allowed in addition to ERA. Clearly, some guys get lucky, and others are relivers who come on and give up a double with the bases loaded and get 3 outs on good defensive plays. That’s why ERA is good for evaluating performance but maybe secondary for looking into the future. I don’t entirely disagree with what you are saying, and ERA is my favorite stat for starters. Still, the BA thing is a take I have a hard time accepting, and so do most on this site.
But looking at the rate stat by itself, you don’t know if a player produced that over an entire season, half a season, or 50 AB. So it could be less helpful in smaller sample sizes perhaps. Or less predictive of the future.
Batting average gets that runner in from 2nd where as a walk is, well, something. I don’t like when BA is discounted. Is there a situational batting average stat? Michael Young & Adrian Beltre, at least in my memory banks, had a knack for slapping a single with runners in scoring position.
I’d take a good mix of the trio of hitters – BA guy, OBP guy, and last, SLG/ISO guy, lined up, in that order, 3 times through the order.
Is your 75% pre or post shift ban numbers?
Playing in the AL Central instead of the NL East will help immensely as well.
avenger is old ha
you can say that again
crise, I assumed the swings early and often part too when looking at his profile. He doesn’t walk all that much and doesn’t strike out. That often is a guy swinging a lot. But looking at his plate discipline numbers, he swings quite a bit less frequently than average. He just makes contact when he does.
Agreed. They gave up a very promising young hitter that has upside to improve for a guy with some arm problems that finally found health last year. 10-10 record. Sure it was Miami but still kind of a lopsided deal that favors Miami. Prospects are always a huge gamble. Best left for trading an established player with expiring contract for. Don’t trade your best hitter for prospects and a mid rotation man.
He is a defensive liability except as a passable 1st baseman. For a 1st baseman he lacks power. His arm is worse than a noodle so even LF isn’t much of an option. I am not so sure about how high his value is. The Marlins are desperate for hitting and Lopez had been linked to several teams. Ng wanted Volpe or Peraza from Cashman so Lopez held more value than you expected.
I still don’t get this huge aversion to batting average. It’s not as useless as RBIs but how many tying runners on 2nd in the 9th with 2 outs score with a walk? I have only seen one and that was Rickey Henderson stealing home.
deGrom, the analytics don’t account for speed or baserunning. They should. Analytics currently put the focus on walks, but if the next guy hits a liner off the wall and you then have men at 1st and 2nd, how valuable was that walk?
The current analytics are eliminating guys who don’t walk enough, to the point that the “hit tool” is referring to how often they walk (instead of the more accurate contact rate).
It’s time for some new analytical tools to eliminate guys that can’t run, or at least account for it in the formula.
Yeah, and some “analytics acolytes” think the line drive banging off the wall for a double is just pure luck that should not be considered when valuing a pitcher.
A situational batting average stat, something that combines RBI’s with opportunities and averages those successful hits v opportunities. There’s got to be some sort of stat like that, right? If not, I’d place that high on the rank order of important stats.
Cory: Exactly! Different kinds of hitters can be valuable; OPS is not the bottom line stat that some modern fanboys believe it is. Teams are probably best off with a lineup featuring various types of hitters statistically over homogenous lineups.
Some OPS lovers would probably want to kick out Rickey and Tim Raines from the Hall to replace them with Dante Bichette and Ryan Howard … because OPS !!!
I’m definitely not an analytics acolyte. OPS accounts for hitting and power. Defense and baserunning are accounted for separately, and OPS+ adjusts to the ballpark and current times. This year, offense was down, and thus even Semien was above average. Nuances matter. I have criticized WAR and traditional metrics alike because people don’t understand what they mean. WAR is 1 data point, as is OPS, as is the “eye test.” I’m not understanding what you are going for here. @Ra
Fangraphs literally has a speed stat that incorporates styling bases, caught stealing and when guys take extra bases on hits, like 1st to 3rd on a single. People who constantly whine about analytics show constantly they don’t really know anything about them and they’re just an old man yelling at clouds.
So dies bref… analytics still have flaws. I’m mainly referring to defensive ones, though. Too many different indicators give opposite conclusions or drasticallydifferent defensive values for the same guy. Speaking of old, what do you mean “you like guys making more outs” above?
The guy who said he would take the guy who hits over the guy who gets on base everyday, and defensive metrics do still have some work that needs done, but statcast OAA is probably the best and is really good IMO because of everything it takes into account. And I agree, analytics do have flaws. But those flaws are less than many traditional stats. I especially dislike bWAR for pitchers.
Relievers, yes. However, starters are more stable due to fewer inherited runners either before or after (none before). ERA is probably the best evaluator of past contributions; K/BB, groundswell rate, projections, hr rates, FIP, etc. are good for projecting, Imo. I would take OPS, stolen base rates, and fielding pct/range over WAR. Maybe, you miss out on double plays grounded into and baserunning decisions outside of steals, but I still think WAR is a secondary stat at best. Semien > Soto according to WAR.
Aha. Found it…RISP. Found the 2022 team RISP leaderboard. OPS w/RISP is my new favorite batting statistic.
oddsshark.com/mlb/risp-baseball
Now where can I find OPS w/ RISP, from 7th through the end of game, while team is losing by 3 or less? That’s the clutch cool cucumber stat.
…. still would prefer a BA w/ RISP stat, from 7th through the end of game, while team is losing by 3 or less. That’s the hero stat.
What you should also consider is on base percentage since the guy would make fewer outs with RISP and would “pass the baton.”
Difference of opinion when it comes to enjoying a game. I love a clutch hit over a clutch walk to win a game. Same result but I’d take that hit. Boring baseball is cool too if you don’t have any guys that can hit. You get a walk, you get a walk, everyone gets a walk. Just stand there and foul off the strikes. Super boring baseball to watch for me. It’s all good though. We all love baseball for different reasons.
Are you going to use moneyball statistics that don’t work.
As a Marlins fan Lopez can’t retire batters after second time around. His mental composure is soft couldn’t pitch after his name was involved in trade rumors last year.
Spot on.
If a MLB player can’t hit .200 he should not be in the league, I don’t care about other stats. Because of expansion many players should not be in the big leagues, That”s why some of the games are boring and you have diluted competition.
If you have a low batting average and high era you are not going to win anything. Besides the physical attributes of being in the big leagues much of it is mental. That is why most pitchers cannot close out a game on the road and thus the term “clutch hitter”. Those items don’t show up in the stats, only to people who bother watching the game.
In my opinion that’s losing baseball.
Well at least he would be a has been rather than a never was.
Nobody has any clue who you are responding to @Average Joe.
What?
Have you ever played baseball?
@Average Joe Who what ever played baseball? Me? If so, yes. I played starting in 6th grade and ended playing in 12th grade. We had 2 seasons each year, and each one had about 16-18 games. This was recreational baseball.
So not true. Most MLBers will score from 2nd on a single. On the other hand, what has become the norm in MLB (because singles are boring) is to have a RISP only to strand him because the “analytics don’t dig the single.” It has become a somewhat boring game with everyone trying to go yard (although the best one, still.).
@Arnold Ziffel, today’s crowd will say “Who cares about Carew’s batting average and singles hitting. He sucked because singles are dumb and batting average is irrelevant.”.
It depends who’s on third?
@websoulsurfer, I like how you start your post with “A single with no one on base is worth exactly what a walk is.” Then spend the rest of your post arguing that a walk is better than putting the ball in play.
But is a walk better than a single (no, not putting the ball in play) when you have runners on the pads? Can you go 1B to 3B on a walk? Can you score from 2B on a walk? Can you score from 3B on a walk with less than 2 outs?
Don’t get me wrong, I am not a sabermetrics hater. I just think there is a place for stats (all stats), and the most common problem I see with most that argue on behalf of analytics is that it is done in a vacuum. When hungry, a filet mignon is always better than your fast-food joint burger. But if all I have is $10, that fast food burger is pretty effective. Point is, context matters.
@Hammerin’Hank, would you rather have an Ichiro or a Chris Davis?
Lopez’s ERA would be 4.50+ if he were pitching 30 years ago.
m4n, I didn’t argue anything. I posted facts. Here are more.
With men on first a walk is better than a K, a FC, and a DP.
With men on first a walk is not better than any base hit.
NONE of the things you mention in your comment were mentioned in mine, so who are you responding to?
Ra, FIP 90% accuracy in predicting future performance, ERA 71%.
“FIP statistics allow us to better predict the future pitching rather than measuring the present performance.”
@websoulsurfer, my apologies for wasting my time by commenting on a post by someone who does not know what an argument is or is too intellectually dishonest to take ownership of their argument.
FIP is a voodoo stat. You could center any stat/formula to league average ERA and fool people you found a predictor.
Twins clearly won this trade by a landslide. It’s not even particularly close before you add the prospects. Marlins got a bat only guy who doesn’t field any position well.
MIN wins? Pablo Lopez was a decent pitcher, but in a year where the league BA was its lowest in decades — hitting is a rare commodity, esp in Miami that needs to emphasize small ball. And “doesn’t field any position well” is fine with 1B/DH available. He doesn’t have negative def value, which is most important.
Twins have spent multiple decades with good hitters and a mediocre rotation hoping that it will somehow work out in the playoffs. Any organizational shift in thinking that has the Twins focused on high end pitching (e.g. acquiring Castillo instead of Mahle) is a win in my book.
Lopez is not a “high-end” pitcher. He was the smoke and mirrors MIA was dangling to teams to take the focus off “high-end” pitching prospects and/or ML pitchers: Eury Perez, Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer, etc.
He’s had an era between 3.07 and 3.75 the last 3 years, that’s not ace material but it would still be considered high end for a starting rotation piece, most playoff teams boast pitchers like that in the 3-5 slots. He’s also moving to one of the two worst divisions in baseball so there’s a good chance of improvement, though injuries remain a concern.
Arraez is a good defensive 1B, a good defensive 3B, and a league average defensive 2B.
The Marlins got an elite leadoff hitter. Something they need desperately since they were 27th in OBP last season..
The Twins got a middle of the rotation starter that if he stays healthy should provide 160+ innings of above average pitching. That is something they really need.
The prospects are decent, but interchangeable with hundreds of others. No one earth shattering or expected to become a major league starter. Salas has a ceiling of utility player and Churios(sp?) has never played a game outside the DSL.
This is one of the rare trades where you can see immediately how it helps both teams.
@case – That 3.07 ERA (2021) was in only 101 IP (20 GS). The next year (2022) he pitched almost 80 more IP (180.0 IP total) and was substantially worse at 3.75 ERA (3.71 FiP) or 108 ERA+, just above average. Considering his decent stats have come around 100 IP, I don’t trust him to go 30 GS and give me a 3.50 ERA, which I would expect from a “high-end” pitcher.
The twins didn’t think any of those things were true, if they did he would still be with the twins. Guys who have d questions at 26 are going to be borderline unplayable at 30.
We will see. Check when Lopez is DFA”d.
Of course, they thought those things. They also thought they needed Lopez more.
Only idiots think Arraez has any deficiencies on defense. He is league average as a 2B and a plus defender at 1B an 3B.
Salas has the ceiling of a utility player? Are you making this up as you go along?
Twins got a mediocre starter to add to a mediocre rotation.
“Guys who have d questions at 26 are going to be borderline unplayable at 30.”
Like Jeter, Bernie Williams, Sheffield, Papi, Piazza, Frank Thomas, Miggy, Bill Madlock, Adam Dunn, Knoblauch, Manny, Steve Sax, Bobby Bo, Canseco, Frank Howard…
I could go on.
45 Rating = utility player or below average MLB player. Do you not understand what those prospect ratings mean?
Lmao
Lopez had a 5.00 ERA post AS-break. Not a good sign,
The Marlins should have just kept Lopez and those prospects. Then signed José Iglesias if they needed an infielder. Good defensively, good average and great on the bases.
While Arraez is extremely talented, there’s no denying that, let’s stop pretending that the Twinkies didn’t acquire a stud. I gladly would take him on my Yankees or Cubs. 2 years before free agency? What’s there not to like people? López is great.
What about Lopez is a stud? He was best in a full year throwing only 100 IP, only getting over 111 IP once last year at 180 IP, which was his worst year. He’s stretched out now, so you can expect to get closer to that going forward, but at what cost? It’ll also be interesting seeing how he pitches in substantially different climates (home dome in MIA — outdoor, cold in MIN).
I’m sure you’d take him in that Cubs rotation — they need him — but NYY he’d be arguably a 4-5 SP, though I’d want to see how far Severino can go, so he can take the next step.
You can have him.
Any pitcher that is better than league average is a stud. Let’s stop pretending Lopez is an Ace. He is a #3 starter and that is plenty good.
Did you watch his games last year in the second half. Check your stats. If you did you would see he is on the decline.
There is a difference between tiring and in decline. Lopez started to tire as they passed the ASG. Whether that was mental fatigue of being on a bad team or physical fatigue is unknown at this point. The Twins will find out in 2023. Lopez is still a good starter. A #3 on almost any team.
This comes down to if you’re current with the times and baseball and understand baseball and what current teams value than the twins won the trade in a landslide.
If you still think the game is played in 1980s style then you think the marlins won the trade.
So, you are saying that you are NOT current with the times and baseball and DON’T understand baseball and what current teams value? Thanks for clearing that up for us. We couldn’t tell from your comments. /S
I’m just asking do you know baseball or only stats?
I’ve forgot more about baseball than you’ll ever know.
You must have already forgotten all of it, because your comments show little to no understanding of baseball.
No. Come back in 3 years and let’s see where the trade went. If you understood baseball, you would know that we will have no idea how the trade is going in a month.
Miami’s sending out some good prospects as well. Arraez is one dimensional, but he’s a very good hitter. I’ll take Minny’s side of this. First basemen who can hit are not hard to find.
Arraez is a 2B.
He can play there, but as the Twins found out he doesn’t hold up. He has long-term chronic knee and leg issues and he can’t stay healthy playing in the middle of the field. He’ll need to be mainly a 1B/DH moving forward, just like the Twins used hin last year.
He plays multiple positions at average or slightly above-average rate and his one-dimension is hitting, lots and lots of hitting. Guy had a K-rate of 7% (Tony Gwynn was at 5% K-rate his 4th year) in a year where it was lowest league BAA in decades. That one-dimension plays. Also note: Gwynn had double-digit HR seasons in only 5 of his 20 seasons.
**Note: through their first 4 seasons SLG%:
Gwynn (1889 PA): .403
Arraez (1569 PA*): .409 — *due to 2020 shortened season, mainly
Luis does have some elite contact skills for sure. But he doesn’t approach Gwynn in other areas of the game. Tony was a good outfielder in his early years and had good speed and could steal bases. Arraez is well-below average runner even at 25 and as the Twins discovered can’t play anywhere except 1B/DH without his legs falling apart. Arraez now is a lot like Tony at age 35, basically.
I appreciate the insight, but Gwynn’s SB dipped dramatically the last 10 years of his career at 31 y/o, though still 4 of those years with double-digit SB totals. That being said, his defense was negative value most of his career, where SDG didn’t have the luxury of the DH, like Arraez has and has had. My point is that Arraez’s contact skills are more important today, with how the game has changed, than it would have been back in Gwynn’s heyday where they had fewer positions (without a DH in NL) to hide below-avg defense. With increasing base size and limiting pitcher throwovers to encourage SB and an uptick in K-rates league wide and no more shifting — contact rates are even more important, especially on a team with limited power.
Tony was a terrible fielder early in his career. He busted his hump to get good at it and half a dozen years into his career he finally was. Arraez defense is improving each year. That is very Tony like.
We also play in a different era where stolen bases are not valued as much. We have found out that unless you can successfully steal a base more than 80% of the time, it’s not as useful as just staying at 1B. Unless they are one of the handful of players that can steal at will, they seldom get the greenlight.
If Jon Heyman is reporting this trade, can we really trust him? Wouldn’t that just be like trusting the Clepto Maniac?
One of the major league guys in the trade must be a Boras client.
Arson Arraez
Wow, I thought Pablo Lopez was going to be traded to the Cardinals. I’m glad that the Cardinals did not trade Burleson and Gorman they might be very good. The Marlins did very good in this trade.
I’m more interested in Luzardo. The Marlins aren’t finished turning starting pitchers into offense. They have several league ready starters stacked up at AAA. They are also starved for offense. I still hope the Cardinals can get Luzardo.
@CardsFan57 I agree with your thinking here, but, Mo won’t turn loose of anything. I agree with building from within. But I’m sick and tired of his bs song and dance about deep options at SP. I believe he’s on record saying they have 6 starters right now. I count 3. Matz isn’t until he proves he is. Same with Flaherty. Hudson is a waste of a roster spot. You’ve got Wainwright, Mikolas, and Montgomery… that’s your starters. period. Sit around and horde prospects until you flame out in game one of the post season again there Boys. Although, Lopez is NOT my first choice of pitchers. I’m still waiting for Gorman to go to Cleveland in a package for Bieber.
Agreed. He’s got incredible upside, and if the Marlins are willing to deal him, I think it’d potentially be a game-changer.
Thank you. Finally another Cards fan that knows Luzardo is the move if there is another one to be made with the fish. I feel like I’ve been talking to a wall with this for months.
You can have him. If he doesn’t improve he’s only good for 3 innings.
There’s a very weird fetish among commenters on this site for high AVG players. Arraez runs BABIPs in the .330s and hits for zero power. When his BABIPs decline along with his footspeed, he’ll have nothing left to fall back on. A career 120 wRC+ 1B is already nothing to be blown away by, but he’s only going to get worse from here. Terrible trade for Miami.
Agree 200%. The Marlins are rudderless and really don’t know what they’re doing. The Twins made another shrewd deal with the Angels earlier in the offseason – dumping Gio Urshela for a very good relief prospect. The Twins don’t have the lineup to compete but they gave themselves a better chance at a WC.
The Twins don’t scare anybody. They were 6 games under .500 in 2022.
U have to have guys with his hand eye coordination n bat skillz to win a World aeries..series… see: Altuve, jose
In my mind the Twins are further away from winning the world series then they were yesterday
So, 10 years from now Arraez will have nothing to fall back on. I’ll make a note of that.
Maybe a decade of Wade Boggs production will soften that blow.
I think it’s a 50-50 trade looks good on paper but Twins give up a great hitter Marlins give up a good to great pitcher and top 5 prospect in their system eh who knows
Minnesota got a TOR starter, an excellent prospect in Salas and a promising international prospect for a player who is great facing RHPs, average vs. LHPs, but has no power. Arraez is still great, don’t get me wrong, but if there was a fleecing, I would argue Minnesota was the beneficiary.
A 3.75 ERA is not a TORP. His career ERA is 6% above average, and last year was 8% better. Hos do you define a TORP? Wins?
Try looking beyond ERA
You mean K/BB and future projections? Or “veteran leadership” and experience? If it’s the first, sure. I agree. If it’s the second, I will be disappointed in you.
What do you think?
Given my faith in humanity, wins, veteran leadership, and experience
Brilliant. Keep thinking that.
You started your rebuttal with ERA. Give that some thought.
Are we projecting into the future? If so. ERA is still a baseline of how he is expected to pitch. His FIP was almost identical to his ERA last year. I am one of the biggest fans of K/BB ratios, but HR/9 also matters. He fell off last aeason as he pitched a career high in innings. If durability is a concern, that also weighs down his value. I’d say maybe he is a bad 2 or elite 3 with potential to be a solid 2, but TORP means 1/2, which I would say is 1.5 here. He is more like 2.5. Which number do you define him as? That’s what matters. If you want to use WAR, Arrawz was better last year and has 1 more year.
I’ve seen Lopez, but couldn’t provide a scouting report. ERA, any stat is funky. If I see a guy with Lopez’ numbers, 1st thing I want is, how many quality starts. Lopez had 14, which is pretty solid. Second, how many starts 5 IP or more giving up 2 runs or less. Lopez had 19. That’s not Verlander, but I can will a lot of games with a guy like that.
Additional data can provide more context. I’ll leave that to others.
If you’re looking at batting average and era of commenters on this site, the people with the high batting average or low era on being wrong seem to be the people who think the twins won this.
Stevil, look all you want and you won’t find any stats or formulas that support the false contention that Lopez is a TOR, was a TOR or ever will be a TOR. ERA succinctly tells the story.
You’re reading into the definition of a top of the rotation starter way too far. Seriously, 1.5?
You can argue he’s a fringe number two starter and that would be fair, but he’s very likely going to slot in right behind Gray and he’s going to a pitcher-friendly park that was 22nd in HRs allowed and 27th in total runs allowed on average, in part because Minnesota has much better defense, highlighted with Buxton in CF and now has Correa at SS with Polanco at 2B, They got better defensively. That certainly won’t hurt.
Lopez is tough on RHHs (29.8 K%; 24.6 K-BB%) and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Minnesota handling him carefully with lefties. He made 32 starts last season, so I would argue his injury history is no worse than Arraez’s, and 14 of those were quality starts.
You can disagree with me all you want, but this really wasn’t a fleecing by Miami. Most analysts view this favorably (heavily) for Minnesota. I happen to agree, especially because it wasn’t a one-for-one deal.
Not a fan of Jazz getting pushed into CF because of this, either.
I agree about Jazz. Everyone has different valuations of players. I am going off recent WAR and OPS+ vs ERA+ for the guys. I agree with your point about K-BB and really wanted him. Howvere, Arraez also has an elite BB/K ratio for a hitter, and the #4 prospect is now outside the top 10 for Minn and the numbers don’t look too good. The other guy wasn’t top 30 on either MLB list. I think it’s definitely selling high vs selling low, but we will naturally disagree here. I’m not claiming to know more than analysts, but I certainly think they would be expecting Lopez to improve and Arraez to worsen and they are averaging prodpect outcomes. The prospects are kind of like insurance. They rarely work out, so most teams slightly “win” prospect for player trades, but those they lose are big time losses. You may be right. We can disagree over the same set of facts. That’s the analysis part. Decent points, though
He is likely to slot into the #3 in a relatively weak Twins rotation. That would be because that is what Lopez is, a #3 starter.
His ERA, ERA+, ERA-, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, K%, and BB% are all slightly better than league average. In other words, a #3 starter.
Teams don’t have to be easy on TOR starters against LHB or RHB because they are TOR starters.
Lopez is a #3 or #4 on most teams. It’s irrelevant where he “slots” into the Twins rotation.
The Twins got a slightly better than league average starter. A #3. Salas has a ceiling of a utility player. Churios is 18 and has never played outside of the DR.
The Marlins got an elite leadoff man for a squad that was 27th in OBP last season.
Both teams got a valuable piece.
Salas has a ceiling of a utility player.
=========================
I’m curious what you base this on, if anything.
FG has him rated as a FV50, a future regular
BA has him ranked in the top-100, suggesting the same thing.
BA, BP, MLB all have him rated a 45 and Law said the exact words utility player upside. I will take the opinion of the majority over FG.
1 in 5 top 100 prospects ever become a league average player, so it suggests no such thing.
Arreaz is available because he is a below average defender.
Arraez is available because the Marlins gave up a good starting pitcher which was the Twins greatest need.
Arraez is a league average 2B, and well above average 1B and 3B.
Twins have 3 starting rotation members set to become FA at end of year – made sense to acquire an affordable rotation arm for 2024. And I think trading Arraez signals that some injured hitters from last year are expected to come back and make an impact this year (Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach). The Lopez shoulder issues and his ineffectiveness for the last few months of last year is a bit worrisome, but with a ranked prospect and a lottery ticket added, overall it looks like a balanced deal.
Found it interesting that both of the prospects have speed and are switch hitters.
Why? How valuable do you think Arraez is? Career 120 OPS+, with lots of 1B and DH appearances. No doubt a reliable hitter, but no power, and the Twins got prospects + a starting pitcher back.
A career 120 OPS+ with most of his games played at 2B and 3B. Twins had Polanco at 2B for 97 games and Arraez for 41 games. 3B was Urshela fr 137 games last season. Arraez played whatever position was the most needed at that moment.
And there it is
And people here were like oh the Marlins will get more than just Luis. I thought maybe a 1-1 but this is just plain stupid for the Marlins. Great deal for the Twins.
Ur kidding right ?
Nobody said that, I think ur thinking Max Kepler 1 for 1 with Lopez
I would have gone for Gleyber instead of Arraez smh. What is Miami doing?? Oh well, this trade will be a wash that nobody will remember in 2 or 3 years. I see both Lopez & Arraez to tumble regress to middling status before too long. Nice try for all involved, but Miami should have traded with Yanks for Gleyber instead.
Maybe it gets better for the Twins, but I think they just got worse
When I wrote that the part about prospects being the additional pieces hadn’t been written
Still…just an average commenter.
And… your below average in everything.
I disagree. Getting Pablo Lopez greatly improves the Twins’ pitching staff which was a big need for Minnesota. Sure, Arraez is a fantastic hitter but he is a below average fielder which will come to light even more with the ban on shifts this year. Both teams will benefit from this trade. Minnesota also got a nice IF prospect from Miami in the deal. This trade feels like it will work out well for both sides.
Arraez in fantasy is like Rodney Dangerfield. Even though he is the reigning batting champion, his average draft position is around 200.
Pablo’s health is really a concern for me. Probably a fair deal for both sides.
@DT – Yes. Marlins desperately needed some offense, and they got a pure hitter that lacks much defensive utility while trading from an area of excess. Twinkies needed the arm, and got a couple of interesting prospects back to balance the control periods a bit.
Some of the folks on here make it as if the GM’s in charge make the trade, and then smack their heads and go “wow – I was using fWar instead of BWar, and I also looked up projected ERA which is useless. Is it too late to take it back?” Why didn’t I check the comments section on mlbtr first? ; )
Agreed.
Worse tomorrow
Possibly better in the future
Wow. I knew they were talking but I didn’t think the Twins would actually move Arraez. Great contact hitter but a man without a position.
I’m not sure either of these FO’s have a clue.
Lopez is great, but Arraez is a rare talent in this day in age. I don’t know why MIN would move him.
Lopez isn’t “great”
He’s a good pitcher but not elite
Lopez is pretty close to average bro
So’s Arraez, value-wise. He’s a terrific hitter but has no position. He mostly plays 1B, where finding dudes who can hit is not hard. He’s not anywhere near as valuable as a 130 wRC+ hitter (like him) would be if he played 3B or even a corner OF.
Jose Miranda now becomes the Twins’ 1B, and he’s a pretty good hitter. I like this trade for them.
I would agree but his metrics are fine at 2B over the last 3 years
Jose Miranda is the 3B, it’s why they traded Urshela. Alex Kirillof will be the 1B
He’s not playing 2B on the Marlins.
Pretty sure he is and they’re moving Jazz to short
They also have Segura now. I know they said originally 3B but that was before this move.
I’m not entirely sure Ms. Ng knows what she’s doing. Perhaps the Marlins will eschew power and play station to station. But their defense could end up being pretty shakey. Ill give her more time to paint her masterpiece.
It’s likely Miranda plays primarily at third and Alex Kirilloff plays first- at least vs RHP.
They weren’t great numbers, and he piled up them up when Polanco was out. With Polanco coming back from injury plus 17 other 2b arriving from the minors (Lee, Lewis, Julien, Farmer, Gordon, your mom, etc) Arreaz was at peak value with a bunch of likely replacements on hand.
Blech. That’s a lot of average 2b to be shifting around the SS spot.
Oh yeah forgot that. Well, go find a 1B then. They’re all over the place. CJ Cron is available. He hits the crap out of the ball.
Agree to disagree. Late struggles marred his numbers but having seen him pitch against my club a lot, I can tell you he can be electric with frequency.
Perhaps they thought that he might morph into Willians Astudillo?
Arraez isn’t really a rare talent. There’s lots of on base machines with no power and no defense. Trading that for pitching? Great move.
Lopez has a lot of value… top 30-35 sp in all of mlb over last three years by almost all metrics. Solid
I don’t see why they had to throw in one of their top prospects to get the deal done. Not seeing Arraez as the offensive star of a team, but he’ll definitely help. They do need some reliable power bats eventually.
In the end, the trade should help both teams.
“Lopez has a lot of value… top 30-35 sp in all of mlb over last three years by almost all metrics.”
Ma4170;
Here’s a metric – Innings Pitched:
2020 – 57.1 (Covid Season)
2921 – 102.2
2022 – 180
Maybe the man broke out in 2022, and he’ll be hitting 27 years-old in March. Then again, he’s been pitching home games in a pitchers park, which Target Field is not. We’ll see how he does.
As for Arraez, he’s 2 years younger than Lopez. Hit over .300 in 3 of his 4 seasons, and .294 the other; along of OBP’s between .357 and .399.
Additionally Arraez has 3 years of control over Lopez’s two. Naturally the Marlins had to throw in more prospects.
Minnesota has been more of a pitchers park than Miami the last three years according to Statcast, so I’d think he wouldn’t lose much there. And like you said, 2020 was Covid so basically he’s pitched a full year two of last three, though his injury history is admittedly a little spotty. 119 ERA+ last three years solid.
Arraez is really only an avg/obp hitter, which is great, a lineup needs that. But I don’t necessarily think a higher end prospect was needed just for the extra year of control, but clearly Minny did and got their wish. Like I said, good for both, but I think MN made out better overall.
Or maybe Lopez broke down trying to throw 180 innings.
Read the article again. Arraez is elite for a leadoff hitter. He plays good defense at 1B and 3B and league average defense at 2B.
Thought he was for sure going to the Cardinals. Glad that idea is done!
I’m a Cardinals fan and I’m glad this didn’t happen. Save the prospects for the move for an actual ace at the deadline. We already have at least three #3 starters, if not more.
Good move by the Twins. Arraez is good but you win with pitching. This improves the Twins rotation and lengthens their overall staff which helps the bullpen.
You win with GOOD pitching. You also win with a guy who can hit like Arraez can. Average pitcher, great hitter. And Arraez doesn’t need a position because of something called the DH.
DH’s are worth nothing. If that’s what Arraez is, this was highway robbery by the Twins. Arraez has no power. He’ s a one dimensional player.
Arraez has a rare hit tool. There’s always a place for him in a lineup.
His ceiling is limited because he doesn’t play D, steal bags, or hit a bunch of HRS—but guys with his hit tool play.
Miami giving up good prospects too is crazy though. NG just throws stuff at the wall.
He’s an on base machine with no power and no place on the defense.
He’s a good single and walk offensive guy and guys that can hit but can’t play defense. Arraez fits that bill. And having a good hitting dhis gonna be better then not having a good hitting dh. Plus he could play first
Arraez does play D. At 2B he has been above average and trending up the last 3 seasons. At 3B and 1B he is very good. He is an elite leadoff hitter.
Arraez, who has 3 seasons of team control, was worth more in trade than a #3 starter, which is what Lopez is. Miami was not getting Arraez without either including prospects or parting with a better starting pitcher.
As it is all they gave up is Salas, a guy that was outside the Marlins top 10 prospects (#13 for the Twins) and who has a utility player upside projection, and Chourios, a 17-year-old that has not played outside of the DR. Those are not franchise changing prospects.
Now Ng has the high OBP hitter she has been looking for and the Twins have the middle of the rotation arm they have been looking for. A win-win.
You win with good hitting.
Top prospect heading to Twins as well
If it’s either of their top 2, I take this back.
I love this trade for the Twinkies so far, let’s see the rest of the pieces going back in forth in the trade lst.
Yup. Fantastic deal for Minny. Salas is very good.
Please call them the Twins, not the Twinkies.
Been calling them the Twinkies since I was a kid…
Talk of Twinkies make me hungry.
Salas was not in the Marins top 10 and he ranks 13th with the Twins now. The other prospect is 17 and has never played outside the DSL.
New rankings aren’t out yet
BA has their new rankings out and Salas is taking up a spot at the bottom of the top 100.
He was not a top prospect for the Marlins in BA, BP, or MLB and ranks 13th for the Twins as of today on MLB. mlb.com/prospects/twins/
Salas did not make the MLB top 100.
Who the prospects are matters. But even if they’re great, this is an odd move for the Twins. The team’s pitching was already looking pretty solid, but the lineup has a lot of question marks, and trading one of their most consistent players will only make that worse. I get wanting to give Kiriloff more reps, but trading Kepler or simply not signing Joey Gallo would’ve accomplished the same,
Gallo is the Anti Arraez.
Welp the Marlins just made up 32 games they were behind the Mets and the Braves.
They got Trout? He would go great with Marlin… They have a stronger lineup, no doubt, but I don’t think Arraez moves the needle that much and I’m sarcasm-blind while reading if that’s what you were going for.
Trout will wind up with the Mets in 2024. JMO
Twins getting Salas it seems. Prob evens it out
Salas is a good get, but it’s weird for the Twins to trade so much present value for a guy who probably won’t make the bigs until 2025 when they’re supposedly trying to compete. Arraez isn’t a real superstar because of the defense and low power, but losing him is still a big loss for the lineup that I can’t see Lopez making up over the next two years
They’re deep. Had Kiriloff and Lewis and Edouard Julien all blocked before this
Twins FO seems to really like the minor league SS who everyone is pretty sure won’t be a major league SS
They have a lot of minor league SS who probably won’t stick at SS in the majors. It’s approaching a fetish.
If you can play SS, you can play anywhere. It’s why the Padres have about 7 SS on their roster.
Twins must be getting back another decent player. Not that Lopez is bad, but for Luis Arraez? He’s a positive fielder at 2B and 1B and is exactly what you want out of your leadoff guy. Not to mention he’ll only be 26 next season.
Arraez is not a positive fielder anywhere.
+4 defenisve runs saved at 2B and 1B, and +1 out above average at each position as well. Even a more classic metric like total zone runs had him as an above average defensive infielder on the right side.
That’s essentiall neutral, which considering the low leverage of those two positions makes it a net negative.
That was last year. Over his total career, he’s exactly 0 DRS. And the Twins don’t need a 1B or 2B.
2 positives, don’t make a net negative lol
What a crazy mindset: if you play good defense at a position WAR values less, your fielding value is a detriment.
Some people who wield certain metrics as a cudgel can’t see the forest for the trees.
No Seam. It makes it a net positive. Note the + sign in front of each number. It’s compared to others AT THAT POSITION.
Very interesting trade. I’m a bigger fan of Lopez than most but Arraez is elite at getting on base which you need in the day and age of the longball or bust.
Not that elite. 374 career OBP is good but far from the real elite guys. And almost no power. I don’t know how this guy gets so overrated. A 4 win player is great, and every team would love to have him. But for a mid-rotation starter and a top 5 prospect from the Marlins system? Heck yeah sign me up.
Not that elite? His .375 OBP last season was 11th in the league. Pretty good considering there are 270 batting slots across the league. He got on base more than guys like Ohtani, Jose Ramirez, Machado, Correa, Bregman, Devers, Arenado, Alonso, etc. I don’t know, that’s absolutely elite in my book.
He may not be an elite producer but I already explained why his style can be invaluable to a team in 2023.
Doesn’t matter what the Marlins do, it will always be a “bad deal”. Ridiculous
I’ll be the first person to go with advanced metrics/ways of thinking, but let’s look at what Arraez is. He had a 130 OPS+/131 wRC+. His OBP last year was the 11th best in the league last season, and is the 12th best since 2019 (min. 1500 PA). He’s consistently been an above average hitter, and averages about 3 WAR every 150 games. How many 3 WAR players are there who can play a a decent 1B and 2B?
Eh. And plays awful defense at a very low value position, with no power. As I said, he’s very useful and there isn’t a team that wouldn’t have him, but finding 1B who can hit is not hard at all. Hell the Marlins already have a dude who no one’s heard of, Garrett Cooper, who has a career 117 wRC+. Arraez is at 126.
To think first base is a low value position on defense is absolutely stupid. Having a good glove at first base is integral to having a good defense. Someone has to be able to save all the crap throws from the others.
He was an above average 2B last year by all the metrics
Well he’s going to be playing 2B in Miami and his performance at the keystone varies so one’s evaluation really depends on the metric used. Minnesota got a good deal here with the prospects thrown in, but, as you said, every team would be happy to have Arraez, plus Miami has pitching in spades.
As has already been pointed out seam, he is an above average fielder at 1B, 2B, and 3B.
Finding ANYONE that can get on base at a .375 clip is exceedingly hard. Look at the guys around him on the OBP list. What are they making? Will any of them be available in trade?
The 32-year-old Cooper has played exactly 0 full seasons in 7 years in the majors. The most games he has appeared in is 113 and has averaged 77.5 games per season in 2018-2019 and 2021-2022, the last four 162 game seasons.
Cooper also can’t play the keystone. He is a 1B/DH only. They tried him in RF but that was an abysmal failure.
The Marlins have a top-heavy farm, so their top 5 guy isn’tworth that much. A 50 (average) rated prospect with two good skills: hit and run who didn’t even hit for a high average isn’t really worth much unless he turns it around.
He’s 19.
dGTR- Not saying you’re incorrect here but any means, but if their farm is top-heavy, wouldn’t giving away their #4 prospect be problematic? Unless you really like their top 3 and this is the first guy after.
This is what I meant. They have Perez, Meyer, and Berry, who are all top 50 guys. I would says beyond that, they aren’t too good. Berry was rated 60 during the draft. Regardless, his BB/K numbers in college were elite, even relative to other guys. I would say it’s 3 and then nobody essentially. Then again, I may be overvaluing minor league numbers.
He was not the Marins #4 prospect. He ranks 13th for the Twins.
mlb.com/prospects/twins/
That’s one thing that bugs me about some article’s. They state a player has this star and that stat, but they don’t hit a lot of hr’s. That’s not the only way to drive in runs. A double into the gap can score runs. A single can drive in runs. A triple can drive in runs. It doesn’t always have to be a hr.
In the modern era, yeah, you usually need a HR. Too hard to string hits together. That’s why teams obsess over backspin and exit angle.
In what world is a .374 OBP not elite?
In what world is a .374 OBP not elite? I guarantee you, the same people complaining that Arráez has no pop are the same people complaining that all we have in today’s game are the three true outcomes.
I actually think this was a fairly even trade for both sides. MIN got the controllable starter they were looking for and MIA that controllable bat. Sure, they gave up two prospects but it’s not like they’re blue chippers. Salas (or Saias, as that dbag Heyman wrote) could be headed down a utility/fringe starter role and you never know with the Dominican kid. He’s still under 18. He could be the next Yadier Álvarez or the next INSERTNAME. You never know with prospects this young. If it were my team, I’d definitely take Arráez over Gleyber Torres in a deal like this, in a heartbeat.
I’m really curious about Jazz in center. He definitely has the speed, range and instincts to patrol that cavernous CF at LoanDepot. But he also has his injury concerns. So it’s definitely interesting to me but I’m always 100% down behind the philosophy of putting your best athletes in the most impactful positions on the field. The Red Sox did it with Betts. The Dodgers with Bellinger and those moves worked out tremendously.
And I don’t understand all the Ng hate. Sure she may not be the best GM/President in the game but people fail to realize this is only her 3RD offseason in that role. Sure she signed García and Soler which don’t look good early on. But they were looking for some pop and Sherman wanted to feign that they were actually trying. And it’s not like they got crazy contracts. Two years for Soler plus the player option at $13.5 M. 4 years for García at $13.25 M! Would you rather have Castellanos at $20 M for 5 years? I wouldn’t have and that was even before his horrible 2022. These contracts will only be albatrosses if 1.) They continue to produce like in 2022, which I doubt because of injuries and trust me, García is not THAT bad (Soler I’m a little less bullish about because of his streakiness but hey, if he has a good week, that could be the difference between a seat at the dance and a seat on the couch in October). AND 2.) if Sherman uses it as an excuse to not spend on any other free agents, which he might.
You have to realize. Ng’s restricted to a very dismal budget that drove even Derek Jeter away, a guy who really wanted to own a team in the place he lives! This is clearly an ownership issue, but it also rests on the fanbase. Even when they went to the World Series in 2003, they had one of the lowest attendance records in the game. Obviously they don’t even have much revenue to begin with and when, in the history of anything, has a billionaire ever purposely spent money knowing he’s 99.9% never going to see a return on that (except, I guess, if you’re Steve Cohen… for now). I understand the resale value but the fact of the matter is on a YEAR TO YEAR basis, attendance figures would logically lead you to believe they’d operate on a lower payroll.
The only thing as a GM you can really do with those restrictions, self-imposed or not, and whether you like it or not, is build at the margins while simultaneously building up your farm system. I believe so far Kim (and to an extent Hill before her) has done that part of her job fairly well. That part of the process will still take a couple more seasons at least to truly find out if it was a success or not. But guess what? In a couple more seasons, you still have Arráez, Jazz, Sandy, possibly Max Meyer a year removed from Tommy John and pitching like the impact arm he was projected to be. And as a team like San Diego starts to implode (as they lose Machado, Soto, their whole pitching staff and have virtually no reinforcements on the rise), that’s right when Miami will be in a prime position to strike and sneak into a 6th Wild Card. And as we know, anything can happen once you get into the postseason.
I’m not saying they’ll compete for a Wild Card this season, but I do think with some of the subtler moves they’ve made this offseason, they’ve improved marginally. And as they win more games, that can only bode well for the roster as a whole, but definitely for your stars in Sandy and Jazz. As a general baseball fan looking in, I’ve never been more optimistic about the Marlins as I am right now. Hopefully, for Miami’s sake, it ends up working out.
Its 11th overall. That is elite.
I think this trade helps both sides, but I think the real winner here is the Twins. Mid rotation arm, a high upside infield prospect, and a flyer outfield prospect. Lopez has flashes of being a #2 starter so I think it may be just a little lopsided for the Twins but we’ll see later into the season.
I feel most people saw this coming.
Orioles. Woof. I think I’m being to critical, but I just worry that this team is gonna sit on the hill that “we have the talent in the system already” (and it’s cheap talent) and never go out and make that aggressive move. It’s still super early in the rebuild, but these windows close quicker than you think. Thought Lopez was a guy to go for
2012, My first reaction was the same, that the O’s are sitting on their hands and another clear option to improve an untested rotation was squandered. Marlins and O’s are well matched trade partners.
But as I looked at the Twins’ haul in prospects on top of a middle rotation arm… It’s like some of the other FA pitchers this off season, too rich for Baltimore’s tastes.
I’m holding out hope that Elias and Ng can make a trade for the southpaw Luzardo who is who I’d much rather have both to get a left in the rotation to let DL season in the bullpen another year and also as Jesus Luzardo has an add’l yr of control and fits the Oriole window a little better. I am resigned to accept that we’ll need to give up some talent but with Elias’ aversion to higher risk drafting of arms, we all knew that some of the positional surplus was going to be the currency for trades on day. Hoping that day is soon and we maybe give up Mayo, Hays and maybe a lower level prospect for Luzardo before pitchers and catchers report so Adley can start to learn Luzardo along w Gibson in the Spring. Now is the time for the trade and not later as it’s harder to learn a new pitcher on the fly.
Glad the Orioles didn’t trade for Lopez. But would be thrilled if they trade for Cabrera, Rogers, Luzardo and/or Garrett. Rather have every one of them over Lopez/
I had written the Twins off but the last few weeks has certainly changed the landscape of the AL Central. Interested to see who else is involved. If the prospects are good it’s a clear win for Minnesota for me. Bad news for my Tigers being in the same division (not that I believe they could win it this year anyway) but maybe it opens the door for St Louis to take Eduardo Rodriguez off our hands with Lopez gone now…Gorman would be a nice return.
Arraez is a an elite singles hitter. He’s not a superstar.
He walks too and rarely strikes out.
He’s definitely a really good lead off hitter, but some people seem to value him as a 5 tool player.
He’s not exactly a five tool player but I’d take him on my team.
If ERod hadn’t missed most of last season he would probably have more trade value. Trading Gorman for him seems like selling low on Gorman unless the Tigers eat a substantial amount of salary which also seens pointless for the Tigers at this point
@Rsox:
The Tigers seem to have become a frugal team, that’s right. However, don’t they pay some of Jimenez’ salary after his trade to Atlanta? At least I know that their owner continued to pay almost 1/3 of Verlander’s salary after trading him to Houston. Anyway
adding cash in a Rodriguez trade in order to improve the return would make perfect sense for the Tigers.
Gruß,
BSHH
I’m trying to stay calm until the rest is announced
Not in love with Salas. Already have an infield logjam, hence the trade of Arraez, with promising prospects near the majors and lots of control over the current starters.
Luis was one of the faces of the franchise. He was bringing back the piranhas with Polanco and Miranda. Took great at bats.
Lopez had a career year in 21 and Marlins cashed in
Arraez had a career year in ’22.
Doubtful
His career is 4 seasons and 1569 PAs. It’s certainly possible that 2022 is the best season he’ll ever have, but he’s 26, not 30 and his BABIP was pretty inline with his career.
Vs the league yes. His rookie season with the juiced ball had higher numbers but lower ops+.
Arraez career: .314/.374/.410
Arraez 2022: .316/.375/.420
Last year was probably his best year but obviously not something you can’t expect from him. Let’s not act like his performance last year was something shocking
At 25? You are kidding right?
Honestly not sure why the Twins thought they needed pitching so badly that they trade one of their more consistent hitters.
Maybe we’re missing something we will see when the whole deal is announced.
Their starting staff spent a significant amount of time on the injured list last year. Lopez probably comes in as their best starter, but that doesn’t say much.
Did you leave through the window?
I’m like the wind.
The wind just broke its leg.
Arraez has fantastic bat to ball skills, I’m not sure I would have traded him. He’s a rare type of hitter in this age. Hopefully Lopez works out for the Twins.
+1. I get that they need pitching help, I just don’t see why they needed to deal Arraez with 3 years of control left to get it? Just seems like a shift into neutral
Because that was the cost. Arraez is an on base machine, but with no power. And, his defense isn’t very good.
Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaang
A really interesting deal. I really don’t see why either team is better off now than they were before, but both good players, it’s certainly a “fair” deal at surface level.
Yep. Baffling on both sides but time will tell.
How could you not see that?
Marlins – too many arms dealt from strength. Arraez will lead off for them. Huge Upgrade from Rojas who they dealt.
Twins – Too many young guns waiting to break the show – opens up a spot for them. Absolutely upgrades their rotation that was in flux last season. Never can have too many high quality starters.
No trust me; I completely get that aspect of it, but digging deeper, it just seems odd to me to deal Arraez, who is arguably their best offensive player with 3 years of extremely valuable team control; in order to get a pitching upgrade.
The prospect I know nothing about, and he could very well end up dictating the final result of the trade as well. I just personally would not have dealt Arraez. No way. It feels like subtracting from the top, when their top isn’t that big in the first place. He and Buxton were their biggest weapons
I absolutely disagree with the “he’s arguably their best offensive player.” I know you mentioned Buxton at the end there but Correa and Buxton are firmly better than Arraez offensively. Arraez was third at best. I may even put a healthy Polanco in front of him, but that part is for sure debatable and I could see it going either way.
@twins33, hyperbole aside, how are you feeling about the deal as a Twins fan?
I think it’s a win for both teams. I am an Arraez fan, but I’m not sure he ever develops enough power to be a stud which makes him a very good player but not a great player. He also lacks a defensive position. You can put him places temporarily but I don’t see any spot for him permanently. That being said, his eye is great and I loved watching him hit line drives.
I’m not high on Lopez. I wanted someone better. Someone who is a number one or two. Lopez is a three in a Twins rotation that is already full of three’s. I’d rather have that than a bunch of four’s and five’s though. I think if everyone is healthy, Lopez is behind Gray and Mahle talent wise. He is a helpful improvement so I don’t hate the trade. I just wanted better. Can’t speak on the prospects. Salas looks ok looking at his numbers so far.
Yeah, I raised my eyebrow. The Marlins plethora of pitching and getting a 25 to be 26 year old All Star contact hitter which is a major need, how doesn’t that improve the Marlins? They’ll say “it was a fluke”… because nobody will EVER give the Marlins credit.
It took 5 years for the Marina to get praise for the Gallen and Sandy to Sandy and Jazz deal. Lol.
Now, all we need is for Reynolds to finally be dealt and the earth can start spinning again….
This trade took way too long to come together.
We’ve been hearing about Miami looking to trade a starting pitcher forever and Minnesota looking for starting pitching.
Glad both front offices finally started reading MLBTR and found each other.
Twins fans who are angry have MLBTR to thank for this false equivalence of epic proportions they reported on. They elevated crazy sources and used their credibility to make it seem like a guy who is 20% better than average OPS over his career with elite BB/K rates is close in value to a guy with 2/3rd his control and only an ERA 6% better than average over his career.
Defense is half the game and Arraez has no power and bum knees. He’s not worth near as much as you think.
You should ask for a refund of your subscription price if you’re so upset…..
@deGrom Texas Ranger: That’s the most laughable thing I’ve read all day. Stop using ERA.
I’m not a caveman, so no. I will never stop using ERA.
Smarter to use ERA than a voodoo stat that claims 3/4 of pitchers’ data points should be ignored because “they are pure luck.”
I don’t dislike the trade for either team but now i wonder if the Twins are going to play Kiriloff at 1B or bring in someone like Luke Voit to man 1B
So Kiriloff and Voit both at first. Puzzling strategy, we’ll see if they can get away with it!
It’d be a fine platoon. Voit can pinch hit for Celestino/Gallo/catcher. I’m down.
Terrible trade for the Twins
Aww the poor mets fan still bitter about Carlos Correa!
I never wanted Correa. Dude is a sneak and is vastly overrated. Only plays if hes in a contract year. I never wanted him, Lindor, or Verlander. All 3 are/will be a waste of money
Harder to figure this from the Twins side. Guess they’re trading from depth, Arraez is only going to get more expensive, and Lopez covers another year they didn’t have in the roatation?
Happy to see that Lopez is not going to the dirty birds! Besides, the Twins are the Reds AL team. Go Twinkies!
Which team is “the dirty birds?” Blue Jays? Cardinals?
Traditionally “dirty birds” refers to St. Louis.
Gotcha. Thanks for letting me know.
I don’t have a strong opinion or emotion regarding this deal, so I’ll step aside for now.
Weird move by the Marlins. Give up one of your top prospects so that you can waste Arraez’s prime? I guess they could turn around and flip him at the deadline. But you’d think Miami would be able to get better future value for Lopez.
Huh?
Exactly. Besides which, the Marlins have entrenched players at both positions Arraez can “play.” They needed an up the middle player for their best trade chip. I think they may not be done. They could easily trade another starter and still have depth.
2B is where Arraez will play for the Marlins. That is up the middle.
I think this was an even trade. But given the strength right now for Atlanta, Phils and Mets, if I was Miami, I would have much rather traded Lopez for an elite prospect. I like what the Dbacks did in trading Varsho for Moreno much better. So I think Marlins did not hurt themselves, they just could have done much better.
I looked at the prospects, including the “top” prospect, and I see no top 100. The 4th rated guy had a bad batting average with a 55 hit tool and 60 speed with nothing else. If the hit tool isn’t as good, the speed is all he really has going. Their 4th ranked (5th on MLB.com) guy is not too good. Their system is top-heavy. Also, the other guy isn’t even top 30. Still a fleece. Whoever is really running the Marlins is a genius.
Fangraphs disagrees. They think that the Twins fleeced the Marlins, and I agree. Salas really jumped up lists this year, many of which haven’t been updated yet (MLB Pipelines list is still from last year).
MLB doesn’t have him in the top 100 for 2023. Neither does BP.
Twins front office are complete idiots.
Wrong.
IF ARRAEZ KEEPS HEALTHY, MARLINS GOT THE BEST OF THIS DEAL . Luis Arraez is a proven consistent hitter throughout his career (both Minors and Majors) who has the inborn ability to sniff out hits, spraying line drives across the field. Not a home run-hitter (something difficult for all at Marlins Park), but someone who gets on base often, and who is a batter impressive at not swinging at bad pitches. Also, a very good fielder, as in terms of defensive skills, ARRAEZ finished 2022 with the highest UZR/150 amongst first basemen with at least 500 innings
For selling high on a replaceable first baseman? Heck no they aren’t.
Say it with me, Arraez is a 2B. 169 games at 2B for the Twins. 65 at 1B.
Say it with me, his knees will not allow him to play a significant amount of time at 2B.
Apparently, the Twins and the Marlins and their doctors don’t agree with you.
Arraez goes from a team that has a shot to one that doesn’t. Lopez and Salas are probably very happy.
Explain?
The Marlins, in my opinion, are actually progressing. As a diehard Marlins fan for years they’ve made ridiculous moves, but their roster and farm system isn’t looking too bad. Segura, Jazz, Arraez, Fortes, Jesus, a hopeful turnaround from a healthy Avisail and Soler, De La Cruz, Groshans whose not looking too bad and a system which includes Watson, Lewis, Berry, Cappe, etc. and the acquisition of Amaya + possible the best group of pitchers/pitching prospects in the MLB the Marlins actually looks exciting in 2023 and beyond.
The acquisition of Amaya did make Salas expendable and the Marlins have a ton of SS prospects z
The Marlins hate is old. They don’t look too bad and have a height future. Power is everywhere, a contact hitter like Arraez is not something that comes around as frequently
I don’t hate the Marlins. The pitching is nice, but I don’t see them catching the Mets and Braves. If they do I would be happy and cheering for them. But I don’t see it happening.
One day at a time. They’ll get there. Look at the Orioles. Every other comment is “the Marlins got fleeced”. Nobody spoke a word about Salas, now he’s leaving the Marlins and he’s Gunnar Henderson prospect status. The Marlin have Jazz, Ian Lewis, Khalil Watson, etc. many 2B/SS Prospects. In my opinion.
Yeah, chasing the Mets and Braves is profoundly different from staying with the White Sox and Guardians.
They’re also chasing the Phillies, who won a pennant last year
True I should not have forgotten the Phil’s
Was really hoping the brewers would have gotten involved. Offer Lauer, Hiura and 1 prospect to seal the deal.
Interesting. Arraez has gimpy knees, Lopez gimpy shoulder. Both are injury concerns. Arraez is the unicorn, his bat to ball skill is unique in this era. But he’s slow and adds little defensive value, although if they limit him to 1B it would help. Lopez is similar to Sonny Gray, adds depth to their rotation, but not a notable increase in value. The 2 minors coming back look interesting from Minny perspective ..not sure why Miami would sign Chourin last year and trade him so soon. Twins basically get intl signing without having to pay the signing bonus. The SS is listed #93 by BP….seems like a win-win overall, although Miami stands to benefit more in short term.
If the Twins sold high aka this past year was a fluke and the previous year is Arraez’ peak, than Twins win this trade. If this past year wasn’t a fluke than I think Miami wins this trade.
Marlins got fleeced in this trade. Two prospects and a solid pitcher for a sub 800 OPS first basemen with 14 HRs in 1500AB. Don’t understand why people think Minnesota was wrong to trade him, especially with all their decent bats in the minors.
Lol. The Marlins could have gotten Buxton as well and lost would have stated they got “fleeced.” It never ends. It’s a great trade for both.
Every Marlins trade gets questioned. Lol.
If they traded for Betts or Freemanhypothetically:
“If Betts first 8 seasons were a fluke the Marlins got fleeced”
“The Marlins got fleeced if Freeman’s first 10 seasons were a fluke”
Dude, as a Marlins fan and the history of embarrassing trades and loves, this is a great trade for all.
Look at Pablo’s ERA+ last year and career. Last season was really really bad for offense. 30% better than league OPS for 3 years left vs 8% better for 2 more… it’s quite the opposite in that regard.
130 OPS+. .375 OBP. He is a 2B, not a 1B. He plays league average defense at 2B, meaning he is better than half of the guys out there.
That was in the pas. With his knees, I would not expect 100 games a year at 2B for him.
Right or wrong, the twins front office has always been slow to embrace Luis Arraez….in fact you could say they never fully embraced or believed in his talent. He was an organizational surprise in which they kept him on a short leash and never fully gave him a starting spot and said, here ya go 550 at bats are yours! Miami should not make the same mistake. Unleash Arraez and you’ll look forward to his many quality at-bats!
Would’ve liked him in St. Louis at the right price. The rotation in 2024 continues to be a major question mark. The rotation in 2023 continues to be bland.
Would you do a trade of Rasmussen from the Rays for Burleson, Herrera and Winn? Cards get a much better and more controlled 2-3 starter with 4 years of control.. Herrera is blocked , Burleson can be replaced and Winn may be the best of the three..
Bringing in Rasmussen would be awesome. I would be loath to include Winn in the deal. In fact, I think (would hope) there is a way forward without including him. I don’t think Rasmussen is quite good enough to warrant Winn.
Now, if it was a Shane Bieber deal, I would probably include Winn as a centerpiece, assuming Cleveland wanted him.
BTV says this favors the Twins by about $33m.
That site is one of the worst in the history of thr universe. They say Texas can take on Yelich and get Burnes, Williams, and Ashby/Peralta basically for free. Their valuations are awful, and this site also called the Gallo deal a win for the Yankees at the time. You should also do a reality check.
Yeah this is a huge win for Minny.
You make little sense. Please explain your assumed values of each player and surplus. How much is each WAR worth, and how much do you project? Also, how much surplus do you consider the Twins to have? I want to know the thought process instead of just getting an end number.
*Twins prospect surplus expectations
Sure. Average of WAR projections on Fangraphs for 2023 for Arraez is about 2.8. For Lopez about 2.6. Basically identical (we’re talking projections here, so huge margins of error). You get one more year of Arraez, but Minny gets two very good prospects, one of them elite, both under 20. Easily worth a win or more in future value. Plus Arraez’ position is much more replaceable. Hell the dude he’s gonna supplant in Miami, Garrett Cooper, is only a few points lower in career wRC+.
Arraez has a higher career and average WAR and full year more team control than Lopez. 20% of top 100 prospects ever put up even league average numbers. There is a better chance that neither prospect ever plays a game in the majors than that they make a meaningful contribution that changes the value of this trade.
BTV as usual is completely wrong. That is why you never hear people that know baseball mentioning that site.
Jazz will play SS with Arraez and Segura handling 3B. Giving up Salas is tough but remember – he’s a prospect. Not a sure thing by any means.
Jazz is probably the worst defensive SS in the major leagues. There’s no way he’s playing there. CF? Sure. 2B? Absolutely. Not short. They’re still gonna sign someone, likely splitting Iglesias and Andrus with Boston.
Arreaz will play 1B, Jazz 2B, Amaya SS, Segura 3B, and they will likely DH rotate Cooper and Solis, since Cooper is usually injured he shouldn’t lose many ABs.
Oy, I was big wrong here, didn’t see Jazz getting moved to CF. Hope he works out well there. And I meant Solar not Solis.
Soler will be full-time DH except for rest days or injuries.
wow
Huge overpay for the Marlins unless the trade is still not complete and they are getting a prospect like Emanuel Rodriquez back from the Twins as a 2nd piece.
Don’t forget that starter expectation is 18 outs, which includes a quick hook.
Dang, I was hoping the Red Sox would trade for a Miami arm. Now after they trade Lopez, I don’t know if they will trade another.
Honestly, who would you have traded? Don’t tell me Bobby Dalbec.
Ceddanne Rafaela, Alex Verdugo, Connor Wong, and Jarren Duran.
That may not be enough but its closer.
All those for one starting pitcher? No way, I would rather keep what we have. Our starters will keep us in the game and get us to the bullpen. That’s way too much to trade and I’m not sure the Marlins even want them.
I think we should sell high on Rafaela right now.. I wouldn’t want to trade Verdugo but miami would want him. I see Jarren Duran as a player with still value that needs to get traded and Connor Wong can be replaced by Jorge Alfaro.
That’s crazy
Rafaela is doing poor in AAA
They could trade two more and still have depth. They’re just bleeding starting pitchers all over the place.
Marlins receive: 2B Luis Arráez
Twins receive: RHP Pablo López, SS Jose Salas, OF Byron Chourio
Thats a fleece job. Ng took an L on this .
How so?
Twins definitely sold high on Arraez. Do you think he can put up good numbers against the NL east pitching gauntlet? Even the MLB trade simulator has this as a super lob-sided trade.
The “MLB Trade Simulator”? C’mon man
Agreed its not always accurate…but take the blinders off…MN sold high here.
Not really. They traded a batter who’s BA and OBP are highly inflated. He is a solid hitter but he doesn’t add much value not having much power or scoring runs. I had him in fantasy and as good as his batting average was, he didn’t get much points. You also have to figure if his success hitting over .300 will last. Very few guys these days consistently hit over .300. Without the power, if his average falls, there’s not much to Arraez.
Good hitters’ BAs and OBPs are not “highly inflated” just because they consistently have high BABIPs year in, year out. Look up Wade Boggs.
No MLB GM constructs a team based on fantasy points. Fantasy baseball is impertinent to real life winning.
Obviously it’s not based off fantasy stats but my point is he has very little power. Wade Boggs is a horrible comparison because he could hit for power. Arraez is still young and while he’s done well, I’d trade him for a second for pitching and replace him with more power and someone who brings in runs.
Boggs hit for power just ONE year. Not any more power than Arraez in all the others
The word you were looking for is spelled “whose.”
“Who’s” means “who is.”
Whew!! Not going to the Cards thank god. Don’t need another #3 starter.
As a cardinal fan I am up in arms we didn’t waste mortgaging any future talent or current mlb impact bat on this slightly above mediocre pitcher that is only valued as highly around the league because he is the only available arm worth anything out there on this bleak market.
This is a perplexing trade for the Marlins. They need run producers, not high-average / low power guys.
They’re trying to make more contact. We’ll see how it goes.
Hard to drive in runs that aren’t on the bases. Most hits aren’t HR’s.
It seems they’re trying to play more toward the stadium. Soler is the only real HR guy on our team. Other guys hit HRs, but more of the 20 HR range with gap power.
2023 the year of Royce Lewis – Twins are going to be fun!
Shocked they sent Arraez. Wow. I will eat my words–I thought no way they trade him.
If he is the only part of the Twins side tho…eek