The Marlins and Twins have discussed trade scenarios involving Miami starter Pablo López, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman reports that Minnesota outfielder Max Kepler and infielder Luis Arraez were among the names who’d come up in those discussions but adds the Twins aren’t interested in parting with Arraez.
Minnesota’s interest in López isn’t a new development. Ted Schwerzler of Twins Daily first reported in mid-December the Twins were in touch with the Fish about López. Obviously, nothing has yet come together and Heyman’s report doesn’t suggest there’s anything particularly close between the two clubs.
López, 27 in March, has been a frequent target in trade rumors for well over a year. The right-hander has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. He hasn’t walked more than 7.5% of batters faced in any of those campaigns and has posted at least a 23.6% strikeout rate in all three seasons. López sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and owns one of the game’s better changeups. He misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip and generally manages solid results against right and left-handed hitters alike.
That kind of consistent mid-rotation production has piqued the interest of a number of contenders but Miami has held onto López so far. That’s in spite of a reported willingness to deal from their stable of quality starting pitchers to address a lackluster lineup. While the Venezuelan-born righty has been the most frequently mentioned trade candidate in the Miami rotation, the Fish are reportedly open to offers on any of Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Jesús Luzardo as well.
That latter trio of pitchers all come with longer windows of club control and high-octane stuff. None has the consistent multi-year track record López has established, though, making him an ideal fit for a team firmly in win-now mode and looking to upgrade its starting five. López is in his second season of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $5.6MM salary next season; he’ll earn a raise on that during his final trip through the process before reaching free agency for the first time after 2024.
The Twins don’t strictly need a starter, though there’s enough uncertainty in their group they could accommodate another acquisition. That’s particularly true for a pitcher of López’s caliber, as he’d arguably step in as their best arm on staff. Minnesota is set to open the 2023 season with a top five of Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda. That group was hit hard by injuries last year, with Ryan leading the way at 147 innings. Mahle, Gray and Ober each had multiple injured list stints, including a two and a half month absence for Ober thanks to a groin strain. Maeda missed the whole season recovering from September 2021 Tommy John surgery.
There’s a decent amount of upside. Young arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, Louie Varland and Josh Winder have potential as depth options and Chris Paddack could return in the season’s second half from last May’s Tommy John procedure. Yet it’s equally easy to see the risk associated with the group considering their collective injury histories. Bringing in another quality starter would be a nice boost to a Minnesota club looking to build off their surprising new agreement with Carlos Correa and could push one or two of the touted young arms into a bullpen that seems the roster’s biggest question mark.
Minnesota has plenty of high-level outfield depth from which they could deal to bolster the pitching. They’re particularly deep in left-handed hitters, with Kepler, Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner all factoring into the mix around star center fielder Byron Buxton. Kepler is the only member of the group who isn’t still in his pre-arbitration seasons. That has made him the most frequently speculated upon trade candidate but also arguably the least desirable target of the group for other clubs.
Like López, Kepler comes with two remaining seasons of club control. He’ll make $8.5MM this year and is guaranteed at least a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option for 2024. He turns 30 in February and is headed into his ninth big league season.
Kepler looked to have broken out in 2019, when he connected on 36 home runs and posted a .252/.336/.519 line through 596 trips to the plate. He’s always had quality contact skills and plate discipline, and the seeming power spike elevated his offensive profile enough he secured some down-ballot MVP votes that year. In retrospect, that season seems an anomaly at least partially attributable to the extremely lively ball the league used. Kepler has been fine but unspectacular in the three years since then, hitting .220/.314/.392 in over 1100 plate appearances.
That includes a .227/.318/.348 line with just nine homers last season. His walk and strikeout rates remained excellent but he posted the worst power numbers of his career. Kepler also consistently runs very low batting averages on balls in play. That’s in part thanks to a pull-happy, grounder-heavy offensive profile that has made him susceptible to overshifts. The forthcoming limitations on defensive positioning could lead to a few more base knocks but isn’t likely to help him rediscover his power stroke.
Even with middling offense, Kepler is a valuable player. He’s an elite defensive right fielder who has also held his own in more than 1100 career innings in center field. Buxton, arguably the sport’s best defensive outfielder when healthy, relegates Kepler to the corner in Minnesota. Yet he’d be a viable candidate for everyday center field work on another club. That’s the case for Miami, where younger players like JJ Bleday, Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez rotated through center field work in 2022. Each of them is better suited for a corner and has a limited offensive track record at the MLB level. Miami hasn’t addressed center field this winter, currently leaving that trio as an imperfect solution to take up-the-middle reps alongside Avisaíl García and perhaps Jorge Soler in the corners.
Kepler is a sensible trade target for the Marlins, particularly given their reported preference for higher-contact bats. It’s clear, however, that he alone wouldn’t convince general manager Kim Ng and her staff to part with López. An upper mid-rotation starter is going to hold more appeal than an outfielder coming off three roughly average offensive seasons, even one as defensively gifted as Kepler. That’s true even before considering López is a few years younger and will make a bit less over the next two seasons than Kepler will. Including Kepler in a deal involving López could make sense for both sides, but the Twins would have to offer additional young talent to convince Miami to pull the trigger.
Arraez, however, is apparently a bridge too far for Minnesota’s liking. The reigning AL batting champion would certainly fit Miami’s desire for a high-contact hitter and he’s coming off a .316/.375/.420 line over 603 trips to the plate. He’s controllable for three more seasons and projected for a $5MM arbitration salary. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported last month the Twins had given some consideration to making Arraez available in a deal that brought back a “top-tier starting pitcher” who was controllable beyond next season.
One could argue whether López fits that description, but it doesn’t seem the Twins feel he’s at the level that’d inspire them to part with one of their best hitters. Arraez is presently penciled in as Minnesota’s primary first baseman, though he’ll also work as a designated hitter and spell Jorge Polanco and José Miranda at second and third base, respectively.
Give the Rays Arraez then…
Alex Kirilloff,and Jose Miranda fpr Pablo Lopez sounds good for Marlins fans !!
Miranda yes in a package, but Kirilloff is essentially only useful to us as a 1B because we have enough corner OFs.
Miranda and Kepler would be nice in a multiplayer deal.
0 chance Miranda is in the deal! Unless you are trading Alcantara, he’s untouchable!
No chance you’re getting Alcantara unless you’re trading Buxton, Miranda, Arraez, and some prospects.
Alcantara is the MARLINS “Franchise Player” … he’s going nowhere !!
“Marlins franchise player” is an oxymoron.
cs 2 is correct… Miranda is part of the plan. Twins traded away urshela for a bag of popcorn to make 3B open for Miranda. The deal to move him would have to be huge.
If this were for alcantara it would likely be Arraez, kepler, and some prospects, but the twins really don’t have the prospect equity to pull it off
@cs 2, I’m not a Marlins nor Twins fan, but Alcantara is an elite workhorse, a rarity in today’s game, under team control for up to five more years at fairly low cost. He’s one of the most valuable properties in the game. Miranda would be a tertiary piece in a Alcantara trade if the Marlins were trading him, which there are no indications they are. If they did, there would be a bidding war across the game. Miranda is already 25, slow, poor fielder, a one win player last year. He has some value, but he’s the type of player fans will overrate.
As you being a Marlins fan would you like to get Royce Lewis somehow?
I wasn’t saying they should try for Alcantara, I realize he’s not being moved and if he was would cost a ton more! Just saying the twins are not moving Miranda unless they get a legit #1 starter in return.
The Twinkies should be so lucky to get Pablo López, any team in the majors would happy to have him.
@LordD99- me either. A Yankee’s package for Alcantara would likely include Dominguez, Peraza + The Fish have already said he’s off limits this year. That Yankees package makes plenty of sense because Alcantara is that good. The Yankees have balked at trading either Dominguez or Peraza for Reynolds as they should. The Pirates are not going to get a “Soto type of deal” for Reynolds. If I’m Pittsburgh I got to walk away with Texas Rangers prospects Owen White, Brock Porter, Kumar Rocker/Cole Winn in any Bryan Reynolds trade. It would be well worth it for both teams. If not, the Pirates should wait till the trading deadline in the late summer.
cs 2 I agree with what you’re saying. The Twins aren’t trading Miranda (and they shouldn’t) unless somehow an Ace becomes available. Pablo is not an ace. Solid #2/3. Only way the Twins and Marlins get a deal done is if Kepler is the center piece.
Center piece? Kepler doesn’t have the value to be the center piece on a good SP trade.
Lol so then this whole article shouldn’t have been written? I’m not saying a deal will get done or not, but the discussion has been deals built around Kepler or Arraez–which the Twins refused to entertain in a possible deal, for Pablo Lopez.
You’re way over valuing Lopez if you think Kepler can not be the main piece coming back to the Marlins in a trade. Yes, the Twins would have to have other pieces involved in the trade but Kepler would be the center piece. Kepler has an aggregate of 9.2 WAR over the last 4 years to Pablo’s 7.9.
Not a bag of popcorn. Getting Josh Donaldson off the team – let alone his fat salary – is a huge win.
He’s a workhorse… until he breaks. They should be more careful with his innings. 180 IP for a losing team is plenty.
@labial not referring to the Donaldson trade. They traded urshela away TO the angels for Alejandro Hidalgo 1 for 1. Guy not even ranked in the angels system
over the last three years, their same respective WAR numbers are 5.2 and 7.2. kepler is older and more expensive, and he will not be the type of player the marlins are receiving for their MLB starters. im sure these players were all discussed- perhaps arraez and alcantara were linked in the same trade and im sure miranda was a consideration too, but im confident pablo lopez and max kepler were only seriously discussed in separate trades
LOL Pablo had a 3.0 WAR last year to Kepler’s 2.1. There’s not that big of a difference in value. Pablo has one more year of control. than Kepler. Yes, there would have to be other pieces included but it’s not like the Twins would have to include Miranda with Kepler to give equal value. That would be an over pay.
Kepler had one good year, he is not worth alcantara and neither is arraez
Yes, because while Reynolds is very good, he’s not even half as good as Soto is.
One of those first 3 pitchers and then Winn plus some lower prospects not named Leiter and some guys like Duran may make sense, but I don’t see more than 1 of the big 4 of White, Leiter, Rocker, and Porter going to Pittsburgh for Reynolds. They really want a Soto haul. This is why the Pirates haven’t done well recently. They had a several straight seasons of losing seasons, and this may continue if they don’t trade for talent. Drafting alone won’t make them too good in and of itself. They have to either spend or trade for guys like the Rays and Indians have for so long.
No one is saying Kepler is worth Alcantara, RamMac. We are talking about Pablo Lopez.
Luis Arraez and Simeon Richardson Woods would obviously have to be included in any trade for Pablo López. Kepler would likely be considered a throw in.
Kepler’s a 2 win player (league average). He’s no throw in. Arraez is too much for two years of Lopez. Simeon and Max seems like a pretty fair deal imo.
What, is there no “chat” today?
There’s a paid chat going on right now. You being a member, you should have gotten an email about it.
@Joe says, Are you sure? Is a “paid chat” different from what we have been having?
I’ve just been seeing those, including yesterday, without receiving an email aout them.
Oh. Looking back, under ‘”chats”, I see that they have not necessarily been there every day.
That eases my mind on the subject.
Sorry about the fuss.
Who in their right mind would trade the 25yo AL batting champion with 4 years of control left for a #3 SP?
Article says the Twins have no interest in trading him.
I believe it said “aren’t interested”. It might be semantics, but it feels like it is implying that it would take a haul to land him.
Arreaz is a lot closer to a late stage Tony Gwynn than some average 25 year old batting champion. He’s got gimpy legs, little power and incredible eye-hand coordination. But asking him to play the field each day is going to eventually become a problem, that’s why he’s available, But he is a 25 year old batting champion, so that’s why they aren’t settling for Lopez straight up.
He didn’t hit .350, .316 is a good year but it shouldn’t win batting titles, he’s a singles hitter who won a batting title because the league only cares about power now.
He was hitting .350 for much of a past season untill rough final month. , last year I know he was.338 or so at one point
His month and a half were rough. He was hitting .337 on August 13, .333 August 20, .318 August 31.
“Gimpy legs” is a stretch. Yes, he’s had knee injuries, but a better training regiment heading into 2022 had him running better (though he’s never going to be a burner) and kept him healthier throughout the season.
I don’t doubt that the leg injuries at a young age stand a good chance to affect how Arraez will age as a player, but to present it like his body is breaking down already is overstating how bad it will be and how soon.
I assume the discussions were like, “Are you interest in trading Arraez for Lopez?”
“No. Add me to the do not call list. Never ever call again.” – Proceeds to block number permanently
He’s a 3 on the Marlins but higher on most other teams. And like most fans, you overestimate the value of your guy and underestimate the value of the other guy. I’d trade a singles hitting infielder for a 2 starter all day if the years of control are close.
108 ERA+ makes him a number 2 on maybe 10 teams. There is a difference between 2 and 3 years of control left. Btw, it’s not 4.
Twins fans are sure overrating their own players. Arraez for Lopez? I’d fire Ng the day after that trade.
You should have wanted this to happen a long time ago.
I think the better question is, who would trade Pablo for a glove first utility player being used as an every day player?
The Marlins GM would trade Alcantara for a DFA player. Just be happy she isn’t making all the decisions.
cute, is that really what the Marlins GM would do? I’m pretty sure she still has a job, unlike Jon Daniels and the $500M+ spent on FA last year.
I would.. Yes, Arraez is a special talent with respect to hitting but solid starters for a rotation aren’t always easy to develop or acquire. Arraez is not much more than an adequate fielder which limits his overall value. I would much rather take the chance and trade for the pitcher who I might be able to extend and provide some stability to my team for years to come.
Royce Lewis and Kepler seems like a decent starting point.
Our #2 prospect and Kep is a big non-starter.
Baseball trade values has it 38 for the twins, and 28 for the marlins. So probably the marlins turning that down. Got to give to get
For Alcantara? Sure.
Wait, so they wanted Torres & Peraza from the Yankees but considered Kepler & Arraez from MN? *If that’s true* it seems like a big disparity in the asks/considerations.
Asking price is dropping! If we wait until July, Hicks and Donaldson should get it done.
That’s like a girl asking until marriage. Some of us can’t hold out that long.
Yeah, why are they asking for so much more from Minnesota? Torres is more expensive than Kepler and Arraez is proven over Peraza.
No, that’s very much less. Peraza is universally recognized as a premium defender at SS and already has an offensive floor of Kepler. Plus, he’s a rookie.
Torres approximates to the same value as Arraez. While 131WRC+ to Torres’ 113WRC+, Torres is a better defender.
Moreover, despite their wOBAs being similar (.350 Arraez to .328 Torres), Arraez’ BABIP has been higher than average each year, reflecting good luck on balls in play (so his offense isn’t as reliable as the numbers present) while Torres’ BABIP was just below average.
Overall, you’re talking about 2.7fWAR to 3.2fWAR and they’re the same age. Perhaps most notable to many people, Torres’ .194iso to Arraez’ .104 iso is distinct, particularly as they age.
Obviously, it boils down to whatever a team is looking for in a player (their roster fit) but to say MN is offering more is giving Arraez or Kepler much more credit than they’re due.
Torres one year of control, Kepler one year of control. Marlins need OF more than 2B. Peraza has the glove, Kepler has the glove. Torres has average glove, Arraez has average glove. Arraez has the best bat of the 4. Peraza has an extra year of control. Marlins need offense more than Defense. The two offers are very similar. Minnesota is just a better fit to the Marlins needs. However, they haven’t pulled the trigger on either.
Stymee: I don’t see it that way, as that seems to me like an over-generalization of the metrics teams will surely use to evaluate talent. However, it doesn’t make you wrong and I respect your opinion on the matter.
The BABIP comment is a bit misleading. Arraez will have a higher BABIP than average most years because he doesn’t hit nearly as many fly balls. Not everyone regresses to the league average number.
It doesn’t matter though, both Arraez and Peraza are far too much for two years of Pablo Lopez.
Torres and lower level prospects or Kepler and slightly better prospects makes the most sense. Lopez is good but he’s similar to Sonny Gray last year, who landed the Reds a solid prospect without any minor league experience.
Babip has multiple factors in luck or not. Arraez has a prime launch angle. Torres was high last season. Though he hit more HRs because so. Exit velocities matter and Arraez had his highest avg in 22. The term hitting them where they can’t get him. HRs=not a ball in play. So when they aren’t HRs that launch angle for Torres is a caught fly ball. Ks aren’t balls in play. The sample size for Torres is lower and thus more volatile. Arraez has a bigger sample size because far less Ks and HRs. His is less lucky because the more Balls put in play. It’s closer to expected average.
Should Arraez increase that exit velocity again without jumping to a higher launch angle, he’s going to have a better season in 23 than 22.
All true. Torres has a higher hard hit % at 44.5% with Arraez only 30%. Moreover, Torres has a barrel % of 10, whereas Arraez is only 3.6 %.
Torres hits the ball harder, further, and has twice the power by iso standards, which is why I also included that with the BABIP.
I’ll restate my argument so there’s no confusion. Based on their numbers and all advanced metrics, none demonstrate that Arraez is better than Torres overall. Arraez is a contact hitter. Torres is not. By the metrics, Torres reflects a better fielding rating than Arraez. They’re going to net roughly the same value.
@Clip While I agree with the overall sentiment, I don’t think it’s correct to claim luck is to blame for year-after-year success. If you hit line drives every day, you’ll have a high BABIP.
Dude quit being a homer. Arraez is heads above heels better and more valuable than gleybor. You sound like an idiot.
Torres has 2 more years of control, prior to his free agency……he’s a 2 time All Star, and Kepler, while having a good glove, certainly isn’t any kind of offensive force and has never played left field which is harder in Yankee Stadium than many think….While a trade with the Marlins probably would work well for the Marlins and Torres, thinking that Lopez is a great trade candidate coming back to the Yankees is a BIG gamble……and probably isn’t going to move the needle for the Yankees in their pursuit to match up say with the Astros……
Yes, I agree, which is why I added in the other metrics. It’s one indicator for the BABIP. I simply said his offense isn’t as reliable due to a high BABIP. In other words there tends to be more predictive variance for his offense.
Think of the opposing view regarding fly ball hitters. Although fly ball hitters’ numbers don’t align specifically with more balanced hitters, their BABIP is still going to be an indicator. Nonetheless, it has to be taken in context with the other metrics because that alone for any hitter is going to lead to a misread.
Randy Johnson: Have you researched them at all? Have you read the numbers? Because none of what you said demonstrates anything other than anti-Yankees bias……and, I’m not even a Torres fan. But your position is completely unsupported by, well, everyone.
Although it is easier to insult than to have a basis for an argument, I guess.
Where would the Marlins play Torres?
No idea, you’d have to ask them, they’re the ones that wanted him. My guess is 2B, his natural position. Otherwise, where would they play Arraez, also a 2B.
Kepler and Arraez is very equivalent to Torres and Peraza. Arraez clearly the most valuable asset in that whole bunch.
Ted is not a reporter. He’s a twins fan with a Twitter and made up “inside information”.
Ah, so he’s like Heyman starting out!
Yes, except he doesn’t know anyone like Boras.
No he is like prime heyman
Gotta start somewhere. I remember when some of the Fangraphs guys first started writing. Went to report from Winter Meetings. Now a few of them run MLB analytics depts.
No doubt you gotta start somewhere but I don’t believe pulling made up stuff out of the sky and antagonizing people that question it is where to start
Dave Cameron was one of my favorite FG writers before he left for the Padres. He also came off as condescending IMO in his chats and in some articles he wrote but I highly respect his baseball knowledge.
I always wonder how people don’t see what’s right in front of their face. Oh well go Yankees. And Cubs.
KG also often came off as condescending in his chats before he left for the twins
@tstats Lol Dave was a lot worse believe me. I really liked KG though and at least he had front office experience to back it up. He really let readers lean into how front offices operate. I always knew that writing for FG was just a layover before he got another MLB gig.
Ted is not starting out, he’s been doing this for years now.
Further context: He tweeted the Twins were out on Correa literally hours before Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes posted their The Athletic report that talks were ramping up.
I don’t know Ted personally outside of a few exchanges on Twitter here and there, but he had the exact, player-for-player return in the Mahle deal well before it was reported by national outlets (or by anyone) and also was first when the Twins called up Billy Hamilton, among other Twins-related news.
Tough to “make up” the exact three-player package the Twins sent to Cincinnati to acquire Mahle and to throw a dart and pick the exact day Hamilton’s contract will be selected.
Fair enough, that’s news to me. Guess I wasn’t paying as much attention then. Everything I’ve seen from him has been things like “twins are out on correa” within a day of a deal being announced, and put rumors out of pitching deals this year and then a very cryptic “twins fans… buckle up!” And nothing happened. Perhaps a more fair thing to say then Is that he jumps the gun on the tiniest rumors far too quickly and everything he says should be taken with a grain of salt. That’s very much the reputation he has amongst twins fans, so seeing anything “according to Ted…” on this site is a little jarring since you guys have a solid history of vetting rumors.
@Phantomofdb- Loser
I hope the Marlins trade 1-2 of their starters soon just so we can move on to the next topic du jour.
Also someone trade for Reynolds, everyday it’s a new article about some teams interest. Not on here necessarily but the internet as a whole.
SAM’s;
It’s on here 3 times a week.
Pittsburgh has said they are not trading him.
We’re lost without Correa. He signed contracts with 10% of all MLB teams in the last month.
Kepler doesn’t get you much, certainly not Lopez.
How about?
Kepler + Nick Gordon + 20 something team ranked prospect
Gordon is mostly a LF/2B but is capable of covering SS/CF occasionally and had a 113ops+ last year with I think 4 years of control
Or maybe one of the Twins SP with expiring contracts with Kepler. If they get one though I really hope it’s Cabrera
Miami has said often they’re looking for a CF not RF. Is Kepler truly on their radar?
Alex Kirilloff is younger and a much better trade choice than Kepler – who is a very mediocre contact hitter, but Alex is still not enough for a good starting pitcher like Pablo
@dirkbill
The Marlins can package Sandy, Lopez, and Eury for Kepler alone and pay off Sandy and Lopez future salaries. .
Win/win
Clear as mud.
This may be the single most lopsided trade ive ever seen. I truly hope it’s sarcastic
I see what you did there
They don’t need a starter cause Rocco pulls them after 4 innings!
Possible 3 team trade
Lopez to MIN, A Garcia, J Polanco to LAD, Kepler to MIA
Gorman and Burleson for lopez
Why would we give up 2 young left handed potential power bats for Lopez. His era was 3.75 not 2.75
Give up Gorman for him they are closer in the btv than I thought.
I don’t want to give up Gorman unless we get an elite return. In a deep enough lineup he will see enough fastballs that he can average around 28 homeruns
Maybe he will maybe he will have a year like Carlson did
Cabrera for Burleson and a lower prospect
I think we should target Cabrera, not Lopez. I also would not want to give up 2 of our three best potential LH bats.
I kind of prefer Luzardo but I get your drift
Who does LA give up in that deal?
Best trade LA ever made. They get something for nothing.
Uh, so we give up both Lopez and Garcia and all we get back is Kepler?
Give up? You’re dumping Garcia. I guess LA would give cash considerations. They get Polanco for taking on Garcia.
So we’re going to trade off a key asset just to get rid of a contract?
@MFB You get 2 years of Kepler. Marlins don’t really like to spend. Garcia is really bad and owed $41M.
Avi has been very up and down in his career. Don’t be too surprised if he has an .800 ops next year
Dodgers just get 2 players in this trade for free?
Trade the bionic man Buxton.
I like a good trade so much more than a free agent signing. So much more fun to discuss then revisit down the road.
Such an obvious fit between these two.
Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, & Prospect for López
I like it
Right up the Marlins ally of nonsensical moves
why trade for a pitcher – show some guts and sign Bauer. 5x the pitcher Lopez is and minimum salary.
This ain’t the California Penal League, man. That signing carries a price tag no MLB team could ever afford to pay.
FossSellsKeys – he ain’t no felon, man
Oh, I’m not suggesting that he is. Merely guessing that is the only League in the United States that has such low moral and ethical standards that he would still be employable. Unless the Cleveland Browns have an opening I think he’s going to need to head to Venezuela or Korea or someplace where they’ve never heard of him if he wants to play again. He’s Eastbound & Down at this point but without even the folksy charm of ‘ol Kenny Powers.
Hey! Kim Ng’s cousin Ana doesn’t want the world. She just wants your half.
BTV says Kepler and Arraez for Lopez straight up is about even.
That’s a slight to medium overpay for Twins…
Despite pablo being 28 , this isn’t exactly a “prime” Pablo Lopez at least coming off last yr.
It could be a huge thing for Kepler to be an above average defender in CF for a couple years before free agency. Go to Miami and shine on both sides of the ball and get a nice tan for a couple years before your big FA deal anywhere you want
This will be interesting to see if this discussion is going to be legit or if the Marlins are trying to run up the price for another team, or get the price lower for a team like the Pirates and Reynolds.
If anything, this makes Lopez seem much more gettable for not much…
In other news, some other teams may or may not be seeking a trade while a few teams may or may not add some free agents.
Yankees…..don’t be fooled into escalating the return you would send for either Lopez from the Marlins, or Keppler from the Twins……both are fringe players who will not create the leverage you need head to head with the Astros……..
Why is Miami so cheap they want to dump all their young talent
Marlins better be careful and wise before trading Lopez. If is a talented kind of Jush Jung that’s a ticket. But Kepler and Araez no way. Pitching is prime and Lopez is a good one. He could win 18, 20 games with a good team like Yankees, Dodgers and even Minnesota. He underrated cause he plays for the Marlins a d that is sad.
Kind of an odd trading pair. Twins suddenly are in win now mode but the marlins are probably a year or so away from that. If this were going to happen, it would have happened.
Marlins are way more than a year away with the current state of their offense. It’s the reason why they’re trading starting pitching now.
Giants are in on Trevor Rogers.
They are collecting pitchers with the last name “Rogers”.
SF is soon to be referred to as “Mr Rogers Neighborhood”.
True, apparently the Yankees will select anyone with the name, Aaron, too! I just changed my kids’ names to Aaron – all of them. Kind of like George Foreman did. They’ll all be Yankees. 1-9 will be Aaron. Be on the lookout in like….15-20 years, man.
Would love to see Lopez to the cardinals for Gorman, Flaherty, and Hicks. Dead even on BTV. Or Lopez and Wendle to the Sox for Casas. Unless Pat Riley took over for Kim Ng, I don’t see either of those happening even though BTV says it’s even
You know what, despite the fact the Yankees get no return in this trade, we would still donate Aaron Hicks to them for a good cause. Done!
A nickel in cash considerations will do! Ya hear that Manfred?
Marlins would not want Kepler’s contract.
They are not trading for him but
may come into a Kepler trade as a 3rd team.
Any truth to Lopez for Clark Schmidt and Oswaldo Cabrera?
I wish there were an easier way to not reference 2019 career year for a hitter. Then with the usual caveat.
2019 occurred .but. how meaningful is it knowing what occurred then for future expectation?
In a manner, it occurred and is a stat and needs to be mentioned. But its tiring to have to be included among the majority of mlb hitters every time every article
Man looked at Lopez transaction log. Seattle traded him for 8.2IP by David Phelps in 2017.
Don’t get why Lopez is being this undervalued. Based what I seen stats wise he should be in line for what Brandon Woodruff would command in trade.
If they’re trading Pablo Lopez, which again, I think is a mistake, it should be only for a good return that can help them for more than just the next year or 2.
At the trade deadline, I was thinking add 1-2 of their movable bullpen arms to Lopez, and a twins deal would have to be Miranda, Steer, Wallner, a pitching prospect, and a throw in. Maybe add something else in there from the Marlins side too…
So with that being the case, a smaller version of something like that would make more sense…or add wendle, and/or 1 of the bullpen pieces, or even one of their depth arms, and shoot for a similar packaged deal. None of this 1 for 1 type stuff they keep doing. Get value back, if you’re trading someone like Pablo Lopez…
But I still think it’s a shortsighted move to make some sort of trade right now with the arms, b/c realistically, there aren’t any deals that would make them world series contenders this year or next year, and it would just be a trade for the sake of making a trade, as is typical of the Marlins. I think the rest of the offseason should be getting 2-3 bullpen arms, 2 of which that can pitch in high leverage situations, and then maybe an option at 1b/dh, if there is room…then reevaluate after April
I would even consider trying to extend Pablo by a couple of years, and add more years of controllablity, b/c I think that would increase his trade value, and could give them an opportunity to try to maximize him as an asset later (either at the trade deadline, or after this season). Then, if the organization gets lucky and is closer to winning in that short stretch of time, then you might be fine keeping him, as he is likely worth whatever extension it would be
The Marlins need to aim higher than Kepler in any return for Lopez.
The discussion
Twins: We’ll give you Max Kepler for Pablo Lopez.
Marlins: No.
Max Kepler? He’s been in the majors for 8 years and has had 1 very good season…. other than that he’s barely an average player. His best year was 2019… the juiced ball year.
Marlins should be able to do better than that.
Arozarena to the Marlins, Lopez to the Twins, Arraez, and Wallner to the Rays with a couple of smaller pieces from each team as add-ons.
Here is my proposal to try and keep baseball interesting going forward that you asked for…
Every year two teams will trade places. Switch leagues and divisions.
Whoever wins the world series the team from that league with the lowest win total crosses over.
Whoever loses the world series the team from that league with the highest win total crosses over.
Rob Manfred.
Twins are pat until the trade deadline. There’s little chance they’ll spring for star-level contract. With few exceptions, that’s not how they run the books. They’re already banking on insurance paying partial salaries for Buxton and the Taint.
I can’t believe Lopez wouldn’t bring back more? thought he had cardinals written all over him.
More than what? We don’t know what a deal would even look like between these two teams. Lopez is certainly bringing back more than Kepler. All we know is the two teams talked, and the Twins don’t want to move Arraez, but we also don’t know if Arraez was viewed as a secondary piece from the Marlins side.
The WAR stat is honestly the most overinflated stat out there. Kepler had a 2.1 WAR but was 7% worse than league average for OPS+? Even Donaldson was marginally better than that at 6% worse than league average and he had a 2.4 WAR.
As a diehard Marlins fan this is such a Marlins trade. It’s like they’re waiting for the worst possible offer. Max Kepler? Cmon man. If Pitt is asking for a top tier Major league ready starting pitcher you’re telling me you can build a package around Pablo and Rogers for Reynolds? This team never ceases to amaze me. Max Kepler lol. He will fit right in with a .220/.310 AVG/OPS line with 7 HR and 28 RBI. This team is silly. Arraez is batting champ but how could you argue a valuable young arm like Lopez for him? At least we’ll get a guy on base.
If Kepler is all it takes to yet Lopez the Orioles should not let this opportunity pass them by. If I were the Marlins I think I’d sign Profar before trading for Kepler…
Amen. It’s unreal what it takes to pry a player away from the Marlins. 99% of their deals I’m always saying “huh?”. As a Marlins fan it’s irritating. Just look at what we traded for Cashner and Strailey back in the day.
Not sure why Miami would accept Kepler as a centerpiece. Would think theyd want one of the younger OF’s indicated in this article, maybe Kepler is an add-on salary shift for Mn. Just dont see equvalent value there without additional pieces.