The Padres have avoided arbitration with two stars. San Diego and Juan Soto agreed to a $23MM contract, while they inked Josh Hader to a $14.1MM deal.
Aside from Shohei Ohtani — who agreed to a $30MM deal with the Angels at the end of last season — Soto is the highest-profile player in this year’s arbitration class. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for the highest salary of any arb-eligible player, forecasting him to land at $21.5MM. Soto comes in a bit above that and secures a little more than a $6MM raise on last season’s $17.1MM salary.
Acquired from Washington in one of the biggest deadline trades in MLB history, Soto posted a .236/.388/.390 line through his first 228 plate appearances with the Friars. That was below his usual otherworldly standards but still excellent output thanks to a massive 19.3% walk percentage and just a 14.9% strikeout rate. Including his first-half numbers in Washington, he hit .242/.401/.452 with 27 homers over 664 plate appearances.
The Friars will be able to control Soto for one additional season before he’d hit free agency after the 2024 campaign. He’s on track to reach the open market in advance of his age-26 season and trending towards a potential record-setting deal. San Diego surely has interest in working out a long-term agreement with the Boras Corporation client. Soto declined a 15-year, $440MM extension offer from Washington before being traded, ostensibly setting the floor in any negotiations with the Friars.
Hader landed with the Padres in a massive deadline deal as well. Acquired from the Brewers in a surprising swap, he struggled to a 7.31 ERA through his first 16 innings in San Diego. A spike in walks played a role in those anomalous struggles, though Hader was also plagued by an unsustainably high .372 batting average on balls in play against him. He’d only managed a 4.24 ERA over 34 innings with Milwaukee before the trade but struck out an eye-popping 41.8% of his opponents for the Brew Crew.
The lanky southpaw has an established multi-year track record as one of the sport’s most dominant late-game arms. He owns a career 2.71 ERA with a 43.2% strikeout percentage over 332 1/3 big league innings. Hader has collected 132 saves along the way and been selected to the All-Star Game four times. He’s rewarded with one of the largest arbitration deals of the winter himself, narrowly topping his $13.6MM projection.
With over five years of MLB service, Hader avoids arbitration for the final time. He’s on track to hit free agency next winter, when he’ll be headed into his age-30 season. With a typically dominant showing in 2023, Hader would have a chance at topping the reliever record $102MM free agent contract signed by Edwin Díaz this offseason.
Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the Soto agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the Hader deal.
HoLy crud thats a lot
Charlie Morton makes just about as much.
It’s a bargain for the best pure hitter in the game.
I’ll agree that he’s one of the best hitters in the game but I believe Trout is the best pure hitter in the game.
Trout has a nice short compact swing. Something Adell should adopt.
Freddie has gotta be top 5
And Yordan.
Ted and Senioreditor,
I’m curious what each of you means by “pure hitter.” The phrases used often, but I’m wondering if there’s consensus on what it means.
If it was just that easy we’d all be doing it.
Fell off his lofty standards last year in Wash/SD, but hopefully he gets back to that MVP caliber offense.
Called his 778 ops excellent LMFAO
What would you call a 130 OPS+? Pretty good?
pretty good take-home pay for a .236 hitter that should be a DH due to his lack of defensive skills.
Excuse me Juan Soto was a gold glove finalist!
Wow. A finalist
but usually a finalist at a skill isn’t one who’s “lacking” in those skills
A finalist means he didn’t win – ok. It also means that he isn’t a defensive liability.
I wanted to agree with you but I can’t after looking at his defensive stats last year. He was well below average on total zone runs saved (-11) and below average on defensive runs saved (-2) according to baseball reference. I don’t know how he got a 0.1 dWAR with those numbers. I also don’t see how he got to be a gold glove finalist with any of those numbers.
I love how none of you caught the sarcasm
Kind of like how Derek Jeter won so many Gold Gloves.
Juan Soto is not a 236 hitter. He’s probably also not a 351 hitter.
I see him as a 260ish hitter with a 850ish ops 30ish HR
thank you Murphy. ish.
I see Soto as more of a .287ish/.424/.526/.950ish hitter. You know, his lifetime averages. 🙂
The 1800s called. They want their stat back.
It’s the wrong century to be using batting average. I agree. It’s the best comment in a while.
True, although I might have said the 1900s.
And sooner or later you analytics guys will realize batting average is still important. Never saw a walk score the tying run from 2nd in the bottom of the ninth. I have seen a hit do it more times than I can count. Walks are nice but it takes 4 in an inning to score one run. It only takes 2 hits if the guy on first has some speed or the OF has a noodle arm. Still after 2 hits it could be 1st and 3rd and a walk still won’t score a run but the old squeeze play would even though the batter doesn’t get on base he still gets an RBI and the bunt counts as a sacrifice which doesn’t count against his average. Analytics are nice for a deep dive on a player and I do like OPS+ to determine a hitters value. My problem with Analytics is on the pitchers side. FIP is a great stat for strikeout pitchers. But what do you use for pitchers that pitch to contact or relievers? FIP is just about the worst stat for relievers. Also has an analytics heavy team won a championship yet? I could be wrong but I don’t think one has.
statman,
That’s a definite misuse of stats. He had a .236 batting average last year, but that doesn’t make him a true .236 hitter.
Also, who still uses batting average to evaluate hitters?
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/triple-slash-line-conundrum-voros-mccracken-edition/
If the other 2 averages are even, sure. In that case, batting average is a secondary stat. I still think an equal gain in batting average and an equal drop in OPS makes a guy less desirable. Look at Dee Gordon being released by the Nats after hitting a whopping .305!
Anyone with common sense uses batting average since it’s important and relevant. Would you rather have someone that can put the ball in play the Tony Gwynn and Chipper Jones or someone like Bellinger and Gallo?
Common sense? Nope. Nobody wants Dee Gordon and slap hitting guys like that. They are trash.
I’d take .300 hitters all day long.
So, you would need 4 singles in an inning to score then. Good luck with that.
7Line, would you take Juan Pierre’s bat over Mike Schmidt’s? Pierre had a .295 career BA compared to Schmidt’s.267.
It seems like you haven’t posted in a while.
Juan Pierre’s punchless bat doesn’t compare to the all around player Schmidt was. That’s a bad example.
Wow. .242 ave with a .450 slugging. Those are numbers Adam Dunn would be almost satisfied with. I know MLB played with the ball, but that’s not a superstar to me.
Everyone judging a 24 (just turned 24) superstar on a 3 month period after being traded for the first time.Let’s revisit this after a full season in SD with Tatis/Machado/Bogaerts in the lineup.He had ZERO protection in Wash and was not the same after being traded..My guess….he isn’t going to be the same player as the last 3 months of 2022 for the next 12 years.
Surely this didn’t even need to be said but after reading these comments…..
Tiger’s will have 40 million coming off their books after this season. I am hoping they make him an offer they can’t refuse!
Detroit Dave-Hate to break it to ya, but the Corleone Family do not own the Tigers. Although if it makes you feel better Sonny was a huge Ty Cobb fan . That is until he got ambushed at toll gate.
He aint a FA after this season.. he is co trolled thru 2024
Soto is probably the best pure hitter in the game so that salary checks out. I hope he has a much better 2023 season especially since he’ll be with the Padres right as the season starts.
Not with those 2022 numbers. He was pure in 2022; pure average.
His OPS+ was 149 last year!
Yeah he had a “bad” year by his standards 2022 and was still almost 50% better than league average offensively. He’s just on a different level and is in his prime so the numbers have to be huge.
His walks propped that up a lot. His bat took a big step back.
Depends on the ’23 & ’24 games… he could even be extended prior to FA. Perhaps unlikely, but still a possibility.
Knock Preller all you haters want to… but he’s still never been to an Arbitration case. The dude avoids the ugly side of negotiations with the best of ’em! Go Pads
That’s impressive, that gives players confidence in a front office like Preller’s. Cheers Gwynning!
Im a jays fan, but i have to say in a fan of preller and the pads are prob my NL team. Im kinda a fan of trader jerry to but mostly cuz he keeps things interesting
Unless the asks on either side or unreasonable, teams rarely should be going to arbitration. Both sides should be able to reach agreement.
That’s an interesting thought. Which teams lead in taking their players to arbitration? Total number may not be telling, as organizations that consistently field younger, lower-cost teams may have a higher volume to start with, but total number and percent of players to go to arbitration vs those that file would be of interest.
100% After years and years of losing seasons, it is now an event to see the Pads play at Petco!!
Soto needs to shuffle more. He gets locked in more when he’s taunting pitchers, especially if he grabs his crotch a few times. I honestly think he’s fun to watch when he’s doing his thing lol
future SNL host/skit material
More crotch grabs is the new “more cowbell”… on that note, if Juan can grab the region just one more time per game than Steve Finley did then we should be in good shape.
I’m pretty sure Jim Thome holds the all time record for career crotch grabs, but Soto is gonna give him a run for his money.
Lmao i agree fully. Soto absolutely needs to up his shuffle count. A minimum of 2 crotch grabs per AB is imperative to the success of this ball club. More crotch grabs = a better chance at a ring.
If he wants a ring, shouldn’t he be grabbing from the other side?
If not we get Ohtani
Dump these bloated contracts immediately! Trust me, you don’t want to pay that much for them, and it’s only going up from there.
I’m just gonna throw a dart here………yep, fine, send them to the Yankees. Stick the Yankees with Soto and Hader, that will definitely teach us a lesson or two, you can guarantee it.
If the ever gracious Yanks could realistically part with Hicks and Donaldson, we might be able to offset this loss of talent… fine, send it!
You’re an arm-twister, but if I flex enough muscle, I think I can make it happen. But only for the good of the game, of course.
Aw shucks, the Petco fax machine broke! Deal is regrettably off for now.
We shall resend “priority” first thing tomorrow. And we’ve sent one by horseback, just in case.
Our raven shall intercept your steed and we shall resolve this impasse upon the morn.
Had to do it Clip, hope you don’t hate me any less when you catch my new pic. =)
Always a pleasure….for you. For me? Meh. Lol.
You’re a good egg Gwynning.
Tell me if you still feel that way when you see it… haha! All the best, amigo. =mug tap=
Dude, I love it! Very nice, sir. Very nice.
Hicks, complete waste of money.
100% agree, acoss! Cheers bud
The highest-profile profile? I realize it is just a minor error, but it is an amusing one.
I sort of like the mlbtr doesn’t have editorial staff, it’s way cool
So will SD attempt to extend either one of these guys? I know Soto is a Boras client, so that’s not likely to happen unless they offer 13 years at an AAV of like $40+M.
Hader likely not..Suarez takes over closer in 2024 his contract has language and incentives to close..Hader 5/$100+ mil doesn’t fit in SDP IF indeed the plan is to keep the Fearsome 4some together for a decade +
Depending on how it goes with the Manny situation my guess and how Soto performs?
I am still waiting for the uninformed comment that says, “Man, that’s cheap! He should be making 50 million!!!!”
Soto at Best is Average Defensive RFer. You need to watch a whole season to see. Seems a little hesitant when near the wall. Should move to LF and Tatis should play RF.
I think that’s the general plan, at least post-4/20.
420 HA
He seems hesistant on routine plays as well! He needs to work on his defense for sure,
There’s nothing wrong with buying a bit of goodwill with a player you want long term. It’s not so much about making them more likely to stay as it is making it less likely they want to leave.
@preller – go get Bauer
Not man enough to do it
if mlbtr announces that a team picks up Bauer today will it be closed comments again?
Of course! I mean it’s an old boys’ club with all male writers, but they have to still pretend to be politically correct.
And yet they let publicly talk of more cowbell, the hypocrisy
What is cowbell?
Watch Saturday Night Live the best of Will Ferrell and you will find the answer you seek.
Christopher Walken has an honorary PhD in SNL, especially after those The Continental skits
Of course.
1 year deal if he doesn’t workout AJ will sign Ohtani.
Another year of of .242/.401/.452 with 27 homers over 664 plate appearances and Soto might want that Nats offer back.
—Still unhappy Nats fan
“Another year of of .242/.401/.452 with 27 homers over 664 plate appearances and Soto might want that Nats offer back.”
No way this happens with a full season with Machado/Bogaerts behind him and almost a full season with Tatis also in the lineup.He will be hitting oin the best lineup he’s ever had incl. the 19′ Nats lineup.
FRIARS signing some interesting Minor League players. I think their Scouting Staff is Great Talent Evaluaters
No matter what Juan made the wrong move I think leaving DC. He could’ve went down as the guy with a statue out front of Nats park and be looked at as that franchise’s version of Derek Jeter or David Ortiz. Not to mention the absolute bag he turned down with them. No one is going to love him like those DC fans did.
Who thinks Soto will remain a Padre for his career? I get a feeling he will
With Cohen in New York, why would anyone sign until they hear something. Mets will need to upgrade right field very soon.
Because it’s the Mets. Soto has a better chance on the west coast
I have to agree and the man to convince him to stay will be Manny Machado. It’s a Dominican thing : )
First, you’ll need someone to convince Manny to stay. He gone at end of season.
That is some serious crystal ball stuff right there.
Juan Soto would ace T-ball.
No one’s seriously going to talk about 14 mil for a closer???? That money could have gone to another starter for the Padres or even another hitter to complement Carpenter or just find a 1B if they did plan on moving Crone/trading kim. Regardless, even putting aside Haders numbers last year, even if you don’t think he’s overpaid, its generally not a good idea to put that much money on a closer when your starting rotation could use another arm. Furthermore, save opportunities come from SP/RP, not in and of itself. Lastly, its much harder to blow a 2-3 run save when they do come along. Mabye a fan favorite, so business wise, it could work. But in terms of baseball moves, not very smart in my book.
Soto should be a little better without the shift and rightfully so. Many people say hitters need to learn how to hit, but fail to consider the pitcher’s side. If pitchers are so afraid of hitters generating hard hit contact, then they need to learn how to pitch better. It’s literally what the shift is designed to do as it favors what the hitter can do over the pitcher. Its counterintutive if you think about it in how a pitcher’s actually suppose to learn to pitch, and not get rewarded for getting outs from hard contact more or less. But, tbf managers get the blame for that one.
But overall, personally Soto’s fine; at the very least he gets on base close to 4/10 times. but 14 million for a closer? ehhh very questionable at the least, let alone a 3 man rotation that could have had a better chance of being 4.
I too am of the opinion that teams shouldn’t spend too much on closers, or RP in general, but the going rate for a top closer is way up. Five other closers make as much or more than Hader. Edwin Diaz makes $20 MM a year. Nine closers make 8-figure salaries/year. The Padres have always been able to build elite RP staffs without breaking the budget, but now they have an owner who enables them to spend.
Maybe, I just hope the starting rotation holds up their end. At very least a 4 quality arms in the rotation would have been nice to go with an elite closer, in case one of the top 3 falter or just in and of itself. Hopefully at the minimum, Lugo/Martinez will bolster the rotation with Snell being a bit more consistent.
Plus the Hader $ is for one year.Comes off right when needed to give to Machado or Soto.They weren’t gonna find a Starter good enough that would sign a 1 year deal for $14 mil.
Go for it now….use the Hader/Darvish money to extend Soto and find a starter or 2 next off season.I have a feeling 1 or 2 of the 99 fringe guys the Padres brought in will make the rotation and fill the bottom of the rotation at minimum beyond 2023.