The Red Sox announced agreement Tuesday with Adam Duvall on a one-year deal. It’s reportedly a $7MM guarantee that could max out at $10MM via incentives. The CAA Sports client will receive a $1MM signing bonus and a $6MM salary. He’d lock in an extra $500K for reaching 350, 400, 450 and 500 plate appearances and would tack on $1MM if he hits the 550-PA mark.
Duvall, 34, started his MLB career with the Giants in 2014 and has since bounced around the NL, playing for the Reds, Braves, and Marlins. The highlights of his career thus far were the 2016 season, when he earned an All-Star selection with the Reds, slashing .241/.297/.498 (104 wRC+) with 33 homers in 150 games, and the 2021 season, where he earned a Gold Glove award, slashed .226/.287/.513 (107 wRC+) down the stretch for the Braves following a midseason trade from the Marlins, and won the World Series with Atlanta. On the season, Duvall led the NL in RBI with 113 while swatting 38 home runs.
Duvall returned to Atlanta for the 2022 season, but his age-33 campaign wasn’t nearly as productive as that 2021 season. A left wrist strain — more specifically, a torn tendon sheath that required surgery — quite likely impacted Duvall’s overall performance, but the regression was still pronounced. Coming into the 2022 season, Duvall had a career .241 ISO (slugging minus batting average). The .263 ISO he turned in during his 38-homer performance in 2021 ranked him 14th among all qualified batters. That power wilted considerably, however, with Duvall’s ISO shrinking to .188 — ranking 74th among players with at least 300 plate appearances. The resulting .213/.276/.401 slash was 13% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+.
The 2022 season saw Duvall’s average exit velocity dip from 89.8 mph to 88.3 mph, while his rate of barreled balls and hard-hit balls each dropped by more than three percentage points. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate jumped from a career-worst 31.4% in 2021 to an even higher 32.1% in 2022.
It’s impossible to say exactly how much that was due to his injured wrist and how much might be due to a general decline in skill. For a low-OBP slugger like Duvall, the loss in power is certainly concerning regarding his ability to play as an average or better bat on an everyday basis. That being said, Duvall still showed huge power against lefties in 2022 (.233/.282/.562, 129 wRC+) while posting a strong +5 OAA in just half a season split mainly between left and center field, showing he does still have value even if his power doesn’t return to its pre-2022 form.
With offseason acquisition Masataka Yoshida manning left and Alex Verdugo set to play right field, Duvall seems ticketed for time in center field — although he’d notably be a fine right-handed complement to either Yoshida or Verdugo, who each bat left-handed. Cotillo reported yesterday that the Red Sox believe Duvall to be capable of playing center field at age 34, despite the fact that he has just 593 Major League innings at the position.
Whether Duvall will play center on an everyday basis or be in more of a timeshare depends on the development of young Jarren Duran, whose meager .221/.283/.363 (78 wRC+) slash line in 2022 was held down by a massive platoon split; Duran slashed just .184/.238/.211 against lefties for Boston, translating to a virtually unplayable 22 wRC+. Against righties, however, he batted a more palatable .229/.293/.398 (91 wRC+). Duvall and Duran manning center would allow Enrique Hernandez to play the infield, helping to cover for the loss of Xander Bogaerts in free agency and Trevor Story to injury.
Even after an offseason that saw Boston extend Rafael Devers for $313.5MM and add Yoshida on a five-year, $90MM deal along with smaller pacts with Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, and Chris Martin, Chaim Bloom’s front office still has more to do ahead of Opening Day, even after signing Duvall. The top priority going forward has to be addressing the middle infield, where Hernandez can capably play everyday, but the top option to be his double play partner is Christian Arroyo. Shortstop Elvis Andrus, in whome Boston reportedly has interest, is the best middle infielder left on the free agent market. That said, Josh Harrison and perhaps even Jurickson Profar remain as potential options at second base and the Red Sox have reportedly explored the trade market for infield help as well.
With Duvall on board, the Red Sox are projected for an Opening Day payroll of about $190MM, with roughly $216MM worth of luxury-tax obligations on the ledger. That cash payroll mark is well shy of the $221MM at which they ended the 2022 season, while the current luxury level leaves about $17MM worth of breathing room before they’d be at risk of paying the tax for a second consecutive season. It should leave Bloom and his staff with some leeway as they continue to search for ways to augment the roster.
Chris Henrique of Beyond the Monster first reported the Red Sox and Duvall were nearing agreement. Craig Mish of SportsGrid reported it was a one-year, $7MM deal that could max out at $10MM. Chris Cotillo of MassLive was first with the incentive details.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
That was quick. Could be a good bounce back candidate.
Red Sox will take a bona fide major leaguer over shaky Jarren Duran. Simple as that.
True, but Duvall in CF, Kike at SS and Arroyo at 2B isn’t striking a lot of fear in anyone. I wonder if they’ll look to sign Andrus to give them a bit more coverage and flexibility.
More like replacing a pylon in CF.
Playing Duvall in CF, esp at Fenway, would be a mistake. Yes, he’s played it but ’22 changed for ATL when they changed from Duvall to Harris II in CF.
Jared Duran should still be given a chance, however. He’s got speed and has not had a lot of playing time to determine he is a bust. It takes time with young guys.
With Duvall, you get what you get. Low average and may not even eclipse 20 homeruns.
Both had -.1 WAR in 2022 but Duran had pretty good numbers in the minors.
And almost 200 ks
You can be sure after handing out a 10m contract to Duvall, he’s going to get the reps over Duran for the most part. Maybe Duran works his way in but he would need to force them to play him rather than getting a chance to see what he can learn on the job.
Well that’s just bad business because Duvall’s ceiling is far lower than Duran. Duran is far younger and did pretty well at AAA. I was hoping we could start the season with him but it’s obvious that’s not happening.
Duvall’s ceiling is far lower than Duran.
=========================
GA is right on this. Duran had a 73/26 K/W this year in AAA, at ag 25. He has modest power, and can’t field. He’s at the point where he needs to prove himself.
I am both moved and amused by the Red Sox Nation on here. Sign a 4th OF late in the Hot Stove, and there were 265 comments when I opened it up. The intensity is truly impressive…the caring and the devotion to the team.
The amused part is how many knee jerk Bloom haters spend so much time on every thread repeating the same stuff. I am not saying that he has been terrific at all, but for heavens sake he is not a complete idiot either. Many of the Bloom critiques are really John Henry decisions. If the guy cured diabetes tonight, folks are going to get on his case for failing to cure cancer. : )
People always seem to focus exclusively on ceiling while ignoring how likely the player is to approach that and also their expected output should they fail to. I guess that’s why fans fall in love with their team’s prospects.
Maybe Duran needs to prove himself but my point is Duvall has not much left to prove. He’s an aging bat who had scattered seasons (a few of success) and had a -.1 WAR season last year. I’d rather go with the young guy and give him a chance. If it doesn’t work out, trade mid-season for a guy as replaceable as Duvall.
Shhhh pwndroia, the bloomers are reveling in the latest future HOFer their lord and savior picked up, how dare you talk sense.
These moves have nothing to do with making a competitive ballclub, and, nothing to do with legitimate roster fixes.
It’s all about throwing money at the wall and trying to buy someone who might show enough improvement to become a bench piece for a contender at the deadline… you know and effectively buy more fringe prospects.
Forcing guys like Duran to use the lost ’23 season for a sustained 120 game tryout playing every day has nothing to do with it.
the bloomers are reveling in the latest future HOFer
============================
Oh dude, you are so losing it. Even KD is going to start worrying about you.
True about Duvall, but take in mind he was playing out of position in CF, which I think affected his hitting and then a wrist injury. If his wrist is healthy and he’s a COF, he should produce SLG to make up for the AVG (similar to Dalbec in a good year) with above-average defense.
For all that are saying the RedSox will be a last place team in 2023, I truly don’t see it.
Really? Looking at their roster it’s easy to see.
Another bad call by Angel Hernandez blown…
You definitely read my mind!
It is I don’t why people think these r good players bloom is signing
Duvall has power why don’t you go look back into the article.
78 wins was last place last year. It doesn’t take a terrible team to be last in a very strong division.
It’s quite possible all five teams finish above .500, especially with a balanced schedule, lowering the number of games they have to grind out against each other.
LordDgg – You can’t be serious. There is a good chance Baltimore will finish far above .500 along with Tor, NYY and TB BUT there is no way Boston wins over 65 games unless some miracle move happens.
Talent wins games. All the real talent was shown the door except for Sale and Devers hitting. This team isn’t a good AAA team.
First pick in the 2024 draft is more likely than .500.
PULLEDABLOOM: Vegas has the over / under for Balt. at 75.5. So you are saying Vegas is off by 15 games? It happens but to say there is a good chance of Balt being far above .500 ( 86 games) means what..91 wins? Baltimore winning 82-85 max is best case scenerio
@pulleddaBloom- I’d be happy to put up $100 on Boston if their O/U is set at 65.5 wins. I feel very confident they win 72 games at minimum, but likely closer to .500.
Yeah, but I bet your Sox will be at my Sox.
no way Boston wins over 65 games unless some miracle move happens.
==================
I hope you realize that, if/when you’re wrong, again, I am going to light you up like a Roman Candle. And you will have to change your account name, again.
Dope
Riffraff – .500 is 81 games so….. math? It’s a thing.
GAsox…you are correct.. in my haste to sneak in a post at work I did not notice the math error. Please accept this post as a means of an apology for posting incorrect information.
And thank you for pointing out that its a math error and not a grammar error although I could have done without the sarcasm so….manners? It’s a thing. ( couldn’t resist)
Riffraff – I give what I see generally. When making a highly sarcastic (at best) and condescending (most likely) post putting someone else down over their predictions, always make sure you are spot on in everything you’re saying against them.
Of course you do get credit for owning your mistake instead of claiming it was just a typo like some others here would do.
I’m sure you would agree Vegas being off by 5 games is much more likely out of 162 played. Then again, ties also lower the threshold for a .500 season
GaSox..Vegas can be off 5 games but the post I was responding to was stating Baltimore would be well over .500 which , to me would be 86 wins ( could be where I got the 86 from lol) which would make Vegas off by 10 games. Can it happen? yep.. I personally don’t see it.
I’m curious where you saw those odds. I’ve seen under/over odds, but not at sites that would take a bet. One site listed the Cubs at 66.5 wins, which is 7.5 less than they won last year, and i am guessing they are closer to an 81-win team.
I went to Draftkings just for fun, but they have no under/over. If anyone has a legit site listing under/overs, I’d be curious to see their numbers.
JoeBrady..I just googled “vegas mlb win totals 2023” and clicked one of them..didn’t appear to be tied to DK, fanduel or any of those. I believe ( could be wrong) casinos /sportsbook puts out over under props right around spring training. Which is odd because I think they are taking futures bets already
I guarantee you they’re not gonna finish in last place.
This comment will not age well. And I will remind you about it when it happens. Good Luck.
Leave the drugs alone.
Lord – Excellent point, especially if Sale and Paxton somewhat return to prior form and the Sox can avoid the injury bug.
Pulled – I often agree with you, and I noticed you singled out Sale and Devers.
If Sale has a Cy Young caliber season and Devers has an MVP caliber season, both of which are possible, then winning at least 82 games is certainly possible.
There is no balanced schedule. It’s less imbalanced, but it’s still imbalanced.
Vegas was off over 15 games on Baltimore last year, so…
Unless I’m misinterpreting, 86 wins isn’t well over .500 either.
I believe ( could be wrong) casinos /sportsbook puts out over under props right around spring training.
=======================
That’s why I question how reliable these things are. Bookies aren’t going to provide under/overs until the rosters are relatively set. They have online sites now, but they never did this when I was a kid. You could be halfway thru free agency, have signed no one, and then add 2-3 very good players.
They will give you WS odds, but those things are such a rip-off that they could make mistakes and still be very profitable.
Riff, .500 is 81 wins. With the balanced schedule, do you really think that Baltimore will win fewer games than in 2022?
Our offense has gotten worse, our starting pitching has gotten worse, though the bullpen is better. I’m a big Red Sox fan but I’m not holding out hope for much this year. In order to stay out of the cellar several things have to go right. Sale needs to actually pitch more than 50 innings, Paxton needs a major comeback season, Yoshida needs to be worth it, Hernandez needs to be the 2021 version and not the 2022 version, and a half a dozen other things. And again, that just brings us out of the cellar.
The only way the offense has gotten worse is middle infield production. Duvall and Yoshida should provide a boost in the OF. How has starting pitching gotten worse? A full season of Bello in the rotation should be much better than flash in the pan wacha who is good once every decade. Sale will be back, Kluber is as good if not better than Eovaldi. Kluber’s ERA was inflated by 2 starts last year. A commitment to Whitlock in the rotation will be an improvement over Crawford/Winkowski/Seabold. As much as I love rich Hill, relying on a 43 year old isn’t smart. Houck and Paxton are the 6th and 7th starters right now and possibly and could start the year in the pen. Much better than Crawford, Seabold, Winkowski as your top 3 depth options
Yoshida is a significant upgrade offensively over Bogaerts, and I look forward to thriving on this throne.
If Kluber stays healthy 2 years in a row, that’d be surprising. I wouldn’t count on it.
You’re not a Sox fan. Stop.
You’re not a Sox fan. Stop..
Yoshida is theory only. I hope he’ll bring production but I tend to be pessimistic. Sale is at best a massive question mark. As for Whitlock, I keep getting Daniel Bard flashbacks of every diehard fan who insisted he’d do more good in the rotation then insisted he’d transition back to the bullpen seamlessly.
Sabermetric Acolyte
“Our offense has gotten worse,”
—————-
I think fans are too focused on Bogaerts leaving. We were 21st in OPS at 1st, and that is likely to improve. and we were 24th in OF OPS. With Yoshida & Duvall, and a healthy Kiki, that might get much better.
“our starting pitching has gotten worse,”
—————————–
I don’t think so. This depends a lot on health, but we are replacing Eovaldi and Wacha’s 43 starts, with a lot more starts from Sale & Kluber. In addition, we should expect another 15 starts from Bello. The biggest issue with the 2022 rotation was Seabold, Winc, and Crawford 6-16 with a 6.31 ERA.
Sabermetric:
“starting pitching has gotten worse”
How do you figure that? 4.53 ERA in 2022, 24th place in the league. You think its going to be worse than that? None of the kids will take a step forward.
Ill take that bet.
123 – Everyone wants the young pitching to take a step forward but it’s unrealistic to think of them as all-stars replacing guys like Eovaldi. If they come up and get destroyed like the young guys over the last 3 years it’s likely Bloom will DFA them so lets hope they develop as players and last beyond Bloom in the Red Sox organization.
Eovaldi vs Kluber is a no brainer favoring Eovaldi by a mile. This isn’t Kluber from 5 years ago, it’s Kluber today.
Whitlock struggled as a starter, as did all the other guys. No reason to think they will all suddenly become good at the MLB level. Hopefully some day but not in 2023.
You really show you have no clue when you rank Houck 6th. He’s better than all the other young pitchers but he’s a DD guy so he gets treated like crap. He’s the best starting pitcher on the staff other than Sale.
I’m guessing you must be incredibly young to write such naive comments.
Don’t – I figured it out. The marketing team hired a bunch of new influencers that know even less about baseball than the old ones!!! hahahaha
Wow. Yoshida isn’t qualified to shine nor lick Bogaerts shoes. The guy sucks and Bogaerts is an all-star. Wake up you can’t be that dense!!!
Bello is an unknown. If stuff equaled wins there would be 50 20 game winners every year. He certainly has the stuff but I see him more as a guy that gradually gets better over a couple years rather than the guy that is a meteoric talent after one ok audition. I hope I am wrong, but I do think eventually he will be an established back-end starter at the least.
Sale, Kluber, and Paxton are not guarantees to be healthy nor dominant. They each can be effective, and they also each can be on the shelf for half a season. Will Whitlock be as effective as a starter, and not have late inning issues going through lineups 3 times? Will we get a really good Pivetta year, or a typical number 5 pitcher type Pivetta year with a high ERA and .500 record?
What did we subtract? Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill. Our two best last year were Eovaldi and Wacha. That isn’t saying much, but it’s what happened. Potentially the rotation is better. If healthy. If not, it is worse. The pen is better for sure, but we are also taking Whitlock out of it. Our best reliever. We need a strong bounce back year from Barnes to help solidify the late innings leading to Jansen, and some reliability in general. There was a lot of dumpster fire outings last year. Also, as an organization we have to challenge more, stay out of deep counts to nearly every hitter and not walk our way into terrible innings. So many deep counts and back walks to bad hitters. It’s like watching a pitching staff of Felix Doubront clones. Even 1,2,3 innings feel like it takes 15+ pitches to get there most nights, and this is in the biggest swing and miss era in baseball.
The offense lost Bogaerts, and Martinez. Arguably 2 of our top 3 hitters. The offense lacked speed, power, and discipline at the plate. The result was a lot of stranded runners, pitch arounds, and having to string multiple singles together to create runs with a lineup that had trouble doing that. It was fairly punchless. As usual, we had our Fenway Park doubles.
We added Turner, Duvall, and Yoshida. We can expect a passable offensive season from Turner with hopefully 20+ HR’s, If Duvall is a starter .240 20+HR with a lot of swing and miss, Yoshida is a complete unknown entity. Can be very good, or league average with below par defense. A rookie playing 1st base with a ton of potential but could just as easily be a low .200’s hitter with good OBP and pop. I don’t see much of an improvement from what was a hard Red Sox offense to watch last year. Defensively I don’t want to think about this team.
Not all bad, but unless we get really good bounce back years (can never be counted on) and stay completely healthy (yikes) this is a..500ish team. The question is if the young Orioles continue to improve to offset a fairly disappointing off season for them. If they continue to get improvements from these young players, and the rookies pan out they will be the team we are trying to beat to stay out of last. We are not in the same area code as the other 3 teams.
I think Yoshida’s k/bb rate shows he will be productive. I could see an Arraez comp coming to fruition. With Sale and Kluber it’s about taking the time to get right. Whitlock has a COMPLETELY different mindset from Bard and has proven it
You’re classless in your comments and have no clue. Houck is missing a pitch and will open the season in the pen. Eovaldi is a greater injury risk than Eovaldi and Eovaldi is a 1 time all star. Let’s relax. Bello isn’t just a young guy. He’s the most talent they’ve had in a homegrown starter in at least a decade. He’s working with an all time great that he profiles similar to and he looked great last year in his debut. Whitlock actually looked good as a starter. You really aren’t that bright
@pulledabloom you’re a cocky little man behind your keyboard and the funniest part of all is the only fact you’ve stated is Bogaerts is an all star and Yoshida isn’t
I think you’re focused on everything being rosy. Yoshida could be great and I love the potential of his plate discipline. But he’s not a proven MLB asset yet. Duvall had an OPS+ of 87 last year. He’s an intriguing bounce back possibility. But nothing we should accept as definite.
More starts for Sale? We said that in 2022… and 2021. At this point it’s better to assume very little when it comes to Sale. As for Kluber, like Paxton this is not 2018. I would have rather the question mark that was Eovaldi over the bigger question mark that is Kluber. Bello is still young and we don’t know exactly what he’s capable of yet. And I already made my point about Whitlock.
All I’m doing is tempering expectations. Yes, on paper this team has potential. But only if everything goes right and that happens very rarely. All else being equal, be prepared for a long season against a strong division that’s only gotten tougher.
Way too much hopefulness in this team this year just to stay out of last place in the division. This team still needs a second baseman and a shortstop and what is left is not great. Please do not talk about Christian Arroyo who has been an injury risk for several years now. This team will be horrid this year.
Wtf
I think Yoshida’s k/bb rate shows he will be productive. I could see an Arraez comp coming to fruition.
===========================
That’s exactly what I thought when the Arraez trade rumors started. Okay power, and great K/W. I’ll take that comp right now.
123 – don’t forget that a run saved is a run earned.
Defense is significantly worse around the skill positions, which, can be expected to have the effect of raising pitcher eras and increasing the runs required for a win.
-Joe, even sale can be predicted to likely be worse than you expect him to be.
Sale has a history of needing a particular type of catcher or his era would balloon by a good full point or more. In a year that they need an ace performance out of him you would think Bloom would be ringing the phone to get Leon back, a proven battery mate for him.
Then, how many starts do you expect out of sale, kluber, and paxton, all of whom ought to have a fairly low innings limit on their arms. Kluber isn’t known for durability year-over-year. And outdid himself in ’22. Paxton hasn’t built his arm up since last pitching meaningful innings in 2019, returning from injury. Sale? Not a whole lot better off than paxton, and, has a history of arm fatigue in the second half even when he WAS stretched out.
I actually lump all the young arms together. Whitlock had a hard time with a 3rd trip through the rotation, not unlike Houck. Bello doesn’t have much track record yet. None of them have an innings count up to mlb standards and so you’ve got a dilemma. A pile of arms, but, all with hit their limits and battle arm fatigue/injury risks at the same time of year.
Sale/paxton/all the young arms. None have either ever pitched 170 mlb caliber innings in a season or haven’t done it since 2018/2019. So what do you do, stash some young guys in the minors eating up the innings? They hit the wall at the same time. Stick them in the BP? Then they aren’t stretched out even though you no longer would use the innings they’ve got at a higher rate in the first half.
Bring paxton along slowly to debut in the second half might be the best option there, but, then you expect your 1-2 punch to be sale without a good tandem leading to inflated era, and, kluber who… hasn’t put together good full back to back seasons since… well, before bloom was in charge anywhere anyways.
Meanwhile you’ve got a full rotation of guys who can’t go deep into games, and, a bullpen of arms that are AARP members already you want to shoulder that heavy workload.
GASoxFAN
Good assessment. Even if all our pitchers were at 100% health to start the season, they have to be very careful. We have multiple pitchers that haven’t gone through a full pitching year, in years. More than half our starters are questionable whether they actually are healthy, and whether they could withstand a full season of starts. I don’t think so, and you are going to see a lot of low pitch counts from guys building strength regardless of health, and quick hooks. If they are allowed to stretch it out at all, it would still only be with assurances they are at 100%.
People are thinking the Red Sox can pencil in 5 guys that are either starting for their first full season or have had histories of injuries for years and that it all works out with 30+ starts of quality pitching. It is far more likely we see the rotating minor league call up for yet another year patching the rotation together several times this year. Would it surprise anyone if we got only 15 or so starts from one, or more of them due to injuries or being ineffective? With luck that won’t happen, but it sure would be lucky if it doesn’t.
I like to compare the sox rotation this year to having a diesel pickup truck with a aux bed tank, plenty of fuel that in theory adds up to lots of miles of range.
There’s lots of arms, and in theory, lots of innings available.
Problem is, the alternator is bad. Can’t charge up for the long haul. Like can’t automatically stretch out for the long season.
So, you’re stuck with burning up as much as you can before the battery fails, gets you further down the road.
Hopefully they save the BP arms as long as possible and sacrifice using two SP/game one 4 ip, one 5ip, or some such division of labor. 6/3, mix in openers, get creative. You know you’ve only got so many months to use up those unproven arms so burn em while you can then hope a well rested and under utilized BP can limp you over the finish line.
Joe, even sale can be predicted to likely be worse than you expect him to be.
========================
Care to explain how Sale will be worse than I expect when I haven’t posted my expectations of Sale? I’d have to look at my workpapers, but I don’t recall having predicted a huge amount of IPs for Sale, nor a great ERA.
But I certainly expect more than the 5.2 IPs we got last year.
Joe – Notice I said ‘likely be worse than you expect’
As to how I make that guess? When threads have come up discussing the red sox rotation you make posts in the same train of thought as here – such as you just implying that getting more than 5 ip out of sale is necessarily a positive asset.
If sale puts up 100IP of 5.5 era ball, is that really better than the production he is replacing from last season? I think the answer would be no from most people.
But, you repeatedly cheerlead for the pitching rotation saying you don’t think it’s gotten worse than 2022, and have said that in many threads this offseason.
So, by logical deduction, in order for a pitching rotation not to get worse, it needs to equal or improve upon any lost innings. Therefore, either you’re wrong when saying it hasn’t gotten worse, or, if the innings sale provides are worse than what he replaced from the 22 squad he IS indeed likely worse than you expected/hoped for.
Theoretically, they have 5 SPs in Sale, Pivetta, Bello, Kluber, and Paxton. That’s 660 IPs by FG projections. We have two high-quality #6/7 types in Whitlock & Houck. If needed, you could probably get 160 IPs out of them. After that, we drop to more questionable replacements like Winc & Crawford.
I do agree with your last paragraph about not overly relying on our best BP options in the case of injury. But it is also worth noting that the average ML SP total innings average was only 843. We’re short of that, but not by a whole lot.
One place I’ll disagree again with you Joe, it comes down to allocation, and, player transition.
Lots of guys have gotten messed up, for good, bouncing repeatedly between RP and SP.
You get past that and my question is, at what point do these respective guys hit their IP limits? I get a feeling that many of them will happen around the same time.
So, who will be on the roster around, say, late July, and not suffering from dead arm you can call up without seriously risking injury/hurting future development?
The staff needs at least one, preferably two innings eaters to mix in with the young kids. They have the wrong type of veterans to play this balancing act in a conventional way.
It’s all just theory but 36 year old has beens or never beens isn’t that great
The starting rotation didn’t get better your asking a lot out of sale and kluber. Your asking alot out of Duvall and kike too u lucky u will get .240 out of either of those guys with their injury they r what they r bogarts and jd r big losses
Kluber has been declining I don’t understand why people think he’s better than eovaldi
Your take is hot garbage
Based on what bello let’s see him string together 5 good starts I see him being a bullpen piece
Duval bounce back to what 30 hr batting .210 don’t know why Sox fan love this move but I guess only one year rather have renfroe back
Get out of here with the Whitlock being a starter it’s not gonna pan out and kluber is not better than eovaldi and bello is unproven plenty of rookies come up with stuff and still get slapped around the rotation hasn’t gotten better u think sale is gonna be cy young sale come back to reality man these r aging veterans besides bello
They should of just kept Whitlock in pen I don’t understand it at all. One guy on here saying he’s better than bard not sure how he came to that conclusion
Bello did have an FIP of 2.94 despite having an ERA at 4.71. Hopefully having defense behind him will improve his game.
Unfortunately, the defense is looking even worse in 2023 than 2022. Much like a Christmas Carol, if these shadows of things to come remain unchanged, it’s easy to forsee a future in which ERA lags FIP even worse in ’23 than it did in ’22.
LF:
In ’22 you had Verdugo over 100 games in LF. Scouts generally agree Yoshi will be a weaker OFer than Verdugo, both due to arm strength, being used to infielders playing deeper to the OF, and, the fact he was always seen even in NPB as subpar. There’s no numbers to directly compare for Yoshi in mlb, but I’d expect him to be quite negative in OAA.
CF:
duvall will be worse than JBJ who held most of CF duties down… even as he slowed down some from his otherwise impressive 10+ usual, JBJ was a 7 OAA player in ’22, more than duvall.
RF:
Kiki didn’t really play RF in boston, but he did quite a bit in LA. From 2016-2020 he consistently was worth -1, 0, or 1 OAA in RF. Verdugo has been a -1 OAA player in RF. That’s not much difference at all.
In the infield
3B:
you’ve got Devers still butchering the ball, and..
SS:
still no true SS available. Say what you want about bogey but he was dependable and not that bad. Now they’ve got only options of people who haven’t held down the spot, no-arm story, Kiki who is inexperienced if you pull him from the OF in which case, what, refsnyder? that’s a wash in OF, not an improvement, and a SS downgrade.
2B:
You lost story who played a good 2B. First to injury, and, one expects forced back to SS when healthy based on having him begin a ss throwing program.
1B:
You had dalbec, a -1 oaa in ’22. Now you add turner who was a -2 oaa in ’22, although, he was playing 3rd. Not a perfect comp, but, nothing to say he’s going to make some great improvement across the diamond.
Now, OAA isnt a perfect comp and has been better for OF than IF. I just stuck with it because the infield is in such Flux right now that I don’t think people are that worried about who is at 1b defensively, and Devers will still be a butcher.
But, no, the redsox haven’t improved defensively, they downgraded.
I wouldn’t say the defense is that bad until we see them play. SS and 2B are still in question and you mention nothing of Arroyo or Casas. Honestly, I don’t think defense will be the biggest factor. Offense has declined considerably.
Casas has no track record yet either, but, dalbec wasn’t a problem defensively at 1b, and, I’m not sure casas will move the needle much there.
Arroyo I consider to be a backup/IF sub, and, at any rate, inferior to Story’s ’22 production defensively at 2B which was +10 OAA. Are you arguing that arroyo would be defensively equivalent or superior to Story last year? In 3 seasons with the red sox Arroyo has never rated a single positive OAA at any position he played in Boston in any season. If not then that’s still a downgrade
I don’t know to be honest, but I think Arroyo would be fine at 2B. In my honest opinion, I think he should start.
I heard several say Dalbec wasn’t great. Not saying I agree or not, but his offense was terrible and now we are stuck with him.
I’m just throwing names out there that haven’t been mentioned. I just think it’s premature to say defense will be bad with so many moving pieces right now. Bloom has a track record of signing guys who play multiple positions so we aren’t fully sure where everyone will be- I also don’t believe he’s finished.
Pwndroia- I’ll agree on the moving parts issue, but, these moves reek of more bloom throwing disorganized garbage at the wall to see if anything sticks – think the peraza experiment, cordero, etc.
It’s more about accumulating guys you hope you can flip for prospects at the deadline than a balanced lineup to try and win ballgames.
But, while guys can overperform or have career years, and often do, we can look at track records from the past.
Objective metrics and past performances say every position around the diamond **as of right now** the sox are worse, often substantially, in defense compared to last season. And when we compare fip to era like you did, we’ll, that trend isn’t likely to reverse. And there’s no blaming story getting hurt for that because it was a conscious roster construction move by bloom that forced story into hurting himself.
* in full candor, maybe pitchers have fewer bad luck balls hit right at Devers, or right at yoshi, and don’t get dinged as a matter of luck. That would skew your era vs fip ratio differently. Lots of things in baseball do come down to luck afterall
Peddy = I agree that the offense lost 3 key players in JD, Bogey and Vazquez. Adding Yoshida’s bat will help off set the loss but won’t replace those guys.
On defense, same butcher at 3B. Folks will come to realize how good Bogey was defensively as they watch whatever hot mess Bloom;/Cora puts at shortstop. Arroyo isn’t going to kill you on defense so that’s a plus. Casas isn’t going to kill you at 1B if he can hit above .200. Yoshida will kill you on defense according to all scouting reports and his numbers from Japan. Duvall in CF should be an adventure and we’ll see how long he stays healthy. Verdugo in right field isn’t pretty as we experienced a couple of years ago. So the overall defense is bottom five. The overall offense could range from bottom 5 to the middle of the MLB. The team as a whole? Likely to finish ahead of 4 to 10 teams across the MLB and last in the AL East and well below .500 despite the new balanced schedule. Teams like Houston, Texas, LA Angels, Seattle will beat up on them, Cleveland, CWS, Minnesota should beat them and Detroit might too. The AL East will beat up on them. In the NL ATL, PHI, NYM will beat up on them. STL will beat up on them and MIL pitching should shut them down. LAD, SF, SD should destroy them.
So in the end Boston’s wins should come from:
COL, ARI, PIT, CIN, CUBS (maybe), WAS, MIA (maybe)
OAK, KC, DET (Maybe)
That says Boston at best is the 11th best team. At worst, the sky is the limit!! Injuries and poor performance will decide how bad.
So the offense is down significantly, the defense is a bit worse than last year and the pitching is an unknown since Sale and Paxton are unknowns. If they don’t pitch, the pitching is down significantly but the bullpen is better.
It’s so depressing just laying this out that I prefer to look to after Bloom leaves and think about the future configuration of the ball club. I’m very optimistic that someone can come in and fix what Bloom broke.
The only, ONLY good news about this offseason is that long term Bloom has limited the underwater/bad contract exposure to Devers and yoshida, and, a minimum of money has been deferred into the future.
Bloom’s replacement should have a relatively clean slate to work with, lots of either expiring deals or expiring players with the ages on some of the guys.
you just implying that getting more than 5 ip out of sale is necessarily a positive asset. If sale puts up 100IP of 5.5 era ball,
===========================
But that’s ridiculous conjecture. That falls under “anything can happen, but probably won’t”. The worst FIP of Sale’s career is 3.69. It is just as foolish to consider a 5.50 ERA it is to expect a 1.90 ERA. Even in his last two limited innings, he had a 3.17/3.54 ERA/FIP.
When I make my predictions, I use a range of values that are foreseeable.
at what point do these respective guys hit their IP limits?
=======================
It’s not linear. There are two tracks here: one for real prospects, and one for non-prospects and veterans. Kluber & Paxton won’t have limits, since we have no long-term investment in them. Whitlock & Houck will likely pitch 70-80 innings if they stay in the BP and aren’t stretched out. But guys like Brasier & Joely will be thrown to the wolves. For Bello, teams look to add 30 innings each year for young SPs. My guess is about 160 innings, taking a two-year average.
Bello did have an FIP of 2.94 despite having an ERA at 4.71.
=================================
And in his final 10 games, he had a 3.18/2.69 ERA/FIP. Young guys have large variances because sometimes the league catches up to you, but he’s looked really good so far.
1B:
You had dalbec, a -1 oaa in ’22. Now you add turner
=======================
I don’t disagree that the defense will be weak (depending on how we handle SS), but Casas is replacing Dalbec, and that it a large improvement. And Franchy was given 47 starts at 1B, and he wasn’t only the worst I’ve ever seen, it is not even close.
I mean, the 1B on my softball team was 10x the defender Franchy was. Dalbec was weak (and better at 3rd), but Franchy was unwatchable.
FIP has never been so predictive that extreme variances in both directions have equal probability. It’s merely a coefficient centered on league average ERA. WHIP centered on league average ERA would be a far better predictor of future ERA than FIP has ever been.
A 1.90 ERA (based on a 125 IP season) in 2022 for Sale drops to close to zero at 20 innings
More feedback on Franchy, defensively or offensively. Is he a major leaguer?
Do you really think Bloom is going to flip guys for prospects when he held onto key guys like Martinez and Bogey, filling knowing we were not going anywhere?
@pwndroia
I was baffled last trade deadline. Some would say we were fighting for a playoff spot, but you would have had to ignore the entire season to think that even if we had made it, we would do anything in it.
We neither went for it, nor traded away the contracts of players we knew we wouldn’t keep going forward. Not using hindsight, just using my eyes. That team was dreadful. The pitching was abysmal. Letting Martinez and Eovaldi hit free agency instead of perhaps landing a couple of prospects, depending on the team, perhaps a couple of pretty good ones, looks bad. Especially when the mantra seems to be to build the system while filling the roster with versatile mediocrity.
Well Ra, he HAS played MLB ball so he makes the definition of a major leaguer unfortunately.
Should he be? Teams keep thinking he has the athleticism to out something together, thus the opportunities he got in boston, more than once.
You never know which team he can turn the corner with, look at how long it took JDM to become what he did?
Personally, I know boston doesn’t have what it takes to make something out of him. It wouldn’t hurt for more teams to take a AAA flyer on him and see if there’s a sizeable JUMP in his game that shows him ready for prime time.
Meanwhile, I’d offer him to the worst of the worst and see if something happens.
William – don’t forget the boneheaded move of actively exceeding the cbt knowing it would cost you in draft compensation/bonus pool allocations.
I wasn’t thinking about the cap in the first scenario, most certainly in the second when it comes to all in or bow out last year. It makes more sense to have gone all in last year for a big move if staying above the cap. If not, holding on to players that are worth a couple higher end prospects is what baffled me about the choice the Red Sox made.
Like I said. I don’t have to worry about hindsight being 20/20. It just didn’t make sense what was done, and Bloom was instantly roasted near universally in real time.
We can only hope. If he does at least we can make back some of the numbers we are losing. I guess your expectations are that he will hit .300+, 20+ HR’s, and drive in over 75, and not be a liability in the outfield? Not too lofty to reach if he is what they claim he is.
Pitching. I can’t help thinking that a stronger push needed to be made for a starter this year. I can’t help but think that landing any top rotation piece, and forcing Whitlock and Houck to be in the pen makes us a formidable staff with that move. It would have given us a better number 2, pushed a proven reliever back into that role, and forced us to jettison one bad pitcher off the staff.
A bullpen of Jansen, Barnes, Martin, Rodriguez, Taylor, Houck, Whitlock, and Schrieber looks nice imho. Sale, Kluber, Paxton, Pivetta, and Bello could potentially be ok, if healthy, but could just as easily devolve into another year of AAAA and AAA pitchers taking their turns at multiple spots in our rotation much of the year.
When I look at what we did offensively this off season, it makes me surer we should have collected a lesser amount of marginal position players for the money and spent it on at least one proven and healthy top of the rotation arm to allow that bullpen I listed. A strong push for a starter needed to be done early, and just didn’t happen. Slim pickings after that. Bauer could potentially solve the issue, but I don’t think management has the stomach to sign him to even the league minimum and have a complete staff that can compete with the rest of the league with a strong rotation, and really solid bullpen.
I agree with a lot of what you say, but I don’t think it’s fair to blame Bloom for Story’s elbow that was very likely already damaged. Even if he wasn’t ramping up for SS, I wouldn’t be surprised if he had to deal with it.
5.50 is maybe a bit out there, but is it really crazy to expect Sale’s FIP to be the worst of his career? He’s older and coming back from injury. Would you be surprised to see a 4.5? 100ip of 4.5 isn’t very valuable either.
RA did you mean 2023..as in the projection for him this year to hit that mark is basically 0, or projecting out after the 5.2 innings he had in 2022? Granted Sale has had a lot of time off, but the dude is going into his age 34 season, I really wouldn’t be shocked to see some solid regression from anything close to his recent output.
bag: I mean that with each inning pitched in 2023, the probability of Sales finishing the season with a 1.90 ERA comes closer to 0%. The chance of a 1.90 ERA for 120 IPs is nearly nil. But a 5.90 ERA could occur; but he probably won’t reach 120 IPs at that level of production.
We know from rankings that Trevor Story had a way below league average arm before we signed him. Here is when blame comes into the picture. Due diligence would dictate that there must be a reason his arm regressed so badly prior to the deal. He used to throw harder, he no longer does. Why? Was he injured and the deal was done anyway, or did the physical show nothing, and we just assumed a major league shortstop has a worse arm than most high school short stops. 79 mph is not good, at all, ever. If there was never any intention for him to play shortstop then the deal seems ok. If there was ever that intention, the deal does not look good. Who is responsible? The medical staff for complete incompetence, or the person that disregarded what was blatantly obvious?
Disclaimer. At the time I liked the deal because I NEVER THOUGHT FOR A SECOND we would botch the Bogaerts deal, and I wanted the second base quagmire solved once and for all. Story was a big offensive and defensive upgrade at second, not at short.
If not them, then who? Bogaerts, Wacha, Eovaldi, JD, all gone. Less than 80 wins last year, have they gotten better, or worse?
Better. Everyone here talks like no prospect has ever gotten better with playing time.
Only meaningful loss for Boston this Bogaerts.
Wacha last 7 matches was a player 5 ERA+
JD unproductive forward for DH, in a past season his bat was quiet in key moments in very important matches.
J.D.Martinez vs J.Turner
Martinez ISO
2018 – .299; 2019 – .252; 2020 – .175; 2021 – .232; 2022 – .174 Career ISO – .232
Turner ISO
2018 – .205; 2019 – .219; 2020 – .153; 2021 – .193; 2022 – .160 Career ISO – .177
Martinez HR
2018 – 43; 2019 – 36; 2021 – 28; 2022 – 16 ( 533 AB )
Turner HR
2018 – 14; 2019 – 27; 2021 – 27; 2022 – 13 ( 468 AB )
Martinez
2022 – SO % 24.3 ( Car. 24.2 ); BB % 8.7 ( Car. 8.8 ); Hard H% 41.8 ( Car. 49.6 ) DH 1.1 WAR
Turner
2022 – SO % 16.7 ( Car. 15.0 ); BB % 9.4 ( Car. 9.0); Hard H% 40.7 ( Car. 42.7 ) 3B/DH 2.0 WAR
Guess at who did fall off a precipice?
Eovaldi skipped the record amount of HR ( 21 ) in 109. 1 IP and 4.15 proposed FIP.
He is positioned as an ace of rotary press, however he isn’t an ace, he is a number three for a career.
bogie – Where did Turner bat in the LAD line-up? Top 5 but his history in LAD had him in the 2-4 slots most of the time. Was it better than the Boston line-up? YES. So all data related to performance is skewed by him playing on a much better team. Since Mookie left LAD has had the edge in the top of their batting order versus the top of Boston’s batting order. That skews many data points you listed. Also I find some of your key numbers irrelevant like strikeout percentage.
Why did JD fall off compared to JT? Cora moved JD from the 3 hole to a 5 hole with nobody behind him. JT batted 3rd after Mookie and Seager two years ago and Mookie and T Turner last year pushed him down but he had better hitters behind him than JD.
I bet when JD goes to LAD and bats in that line-up there will be no comparison because JT is batting around far lesser players like JD did after Mookie was gone.
So what value best reflects a hitter? OBP tells one how many times a player got on base. JD went .349 and .341 the last two years. JT went .361 and .350 so he performed better using the most comparable stat in baseball. Did JD have a weaker hitter behind him than JT? Yes, and that can impact the OBP but it can’t be quantified.
JD is 3 years younger. I’d rather have JD. JD is also reuniting with his hitting instructor who changed his career. JT will have nothing around him so his numbers should fall dramatically. JD will have far better players around him plus the hitting instructor so my guess is he performs much better than the last few years since Mookie left and outperforms JT significantly in 2023.
So the meaningful losses since Bloom arrived are Mookie, Price, Benny, Chavis, Bogey, JD, Eovaldi, Renfroe and Schwarber. Significant adds? Story sort of, Whitlock and Pivetta. That’s why the talent level has been devastated by Bloom.
Eovaldi is a solid #2 or #3 pitcher on a competitive staff. He was forced to move up when Price got dealt and Sale got hurt. He did admirably considering he faced #1s as a #3. Boston would be better off with Eovaldi.
I really like your use of stats to make your point!!
I very value that JD did for Red Sox in 2018, but he is the passed stage in my book.
A past season confirmed his falling I saw a lot on his torments when a club needed support in an attack:
June – 25 G; 99 AB; 3 HR; .713 OPS;
July – 21 G; 81 AB; 1 HR; .599 OPS;
August – 26 G; 98 AB; 2 HR; .600 OPS;
September – 22 G; 82 AB; 3 HR; .829 OPS ( doesn’t matter )
2022 – 174 .ISO 16 HR.
Decline of amount of HR every year 43, 36 ( juicy ball ), 28, 16 (DH).
As for a clean forward he didn’t cost in 2022 $22 m AAV.
For such money at playing a clean forward he must beat 30 HR.
I wish successes him with Dodgers.
You so strongly grieve on Chavis however he had a chance to prove in Pittsburg, he it didn’t do.
I ‘m anymore worried by the loss of Mookie ( future HOF ) and Bogie ( potential HOF ) they were head stones round that a new command had to be built.
Some people act like prospects don’t miss and playing time improves everyone. News flash, on average less than a dozen players a year from every crop of rule 4 draft, international amateur, NPB, Korean, Mexican, and undrafted fa options make any meaningful playing time out of a good 1000 opportunities. Less than 800 roster spots per year, and, a good number of those held by guys with 5-15 year playing careers.
What’s that mean? There’s about a 1% chance of a prospect being worth the value of the paper spent writing about them. Generally they fail.
Count on a prospect once they’ve proven any worth.
GASoxFan
Some people act like prospects don’t miss
==================
In all the conversations I have ever been involved with, and all the posts I read, I have literally never heard anyone say that “prospects don’t miss”.
Some will, and some won’t. And thus has it always been.
But Joe, some act like they won’t. I keep seeing guys in high A being announced as the ‘xyz’ position of the future for the red sox (or other teams) as if they’re going to be that next 10 or 20 year mlb player…. and odds say they won’t.
Making drastic roster moves and dumping proven high-level mlb talent because some nobody in A ball might be ready for a test gig in 2 or 3 seasons is lunacy.
@bogie2X – Your assessment of JD starts after he carried the team for the first two months. That’s called Cherry Picking.
JD needs to get away from Cora. He’ll be fine in LAD with his old hitting instructor, a better team of hitters and no Cora.
Look for him as the comeback player of the year in 2024. Getting away from Cora’s prejudice will benefit JD enormously. The guy cost him a MVP in 2018 and has reduced his numbers significantly over his tenure in Boston. He will command far more respect anywhere he goes. Plus, he’s joining his old buddy Mookie.
In 2020 a lack of video impacted him but so did losing Mookie the way the team did. That move devastated the clubhouse and it hit JD harder than most. Brock Holt and Mookie were two of his closest friends on the team and while losing Holt was expected the loss of Mookie shocked both fans and players. Nobody in their right mind loses a guy like Mookie but Bloom gave him away for next to nothing.
JD will be back strong in 2024. The HR numbers aren’t as critical as the OBP numbers from JD. Despite falling off he still maintained an excellent on base percentage. Kiki hit 52 points below him, his OBP as leadoff hitter was 50 points below him, his slugging was 110 points below him, his OPS was 161 points below JD and his OPS+ was 42 points below JD (117 to 75) yet who got to hit in the more critical part of the batting order? The really crappy outfielder who Cora baby sat when he was a child not the professional hitter that saved the Red Sox in 2018. Respect? JD got none from Cora.
GASoxFan
But Joe, some act like they won’t. I keep seeing guys in high A being announced as the ‘xyz’ position of the future for the red sox
============================
1-I rarely see fans refer to prospects as “can’t miss”, even the elite prospects.
2-But that said, there is no reason to have discussions without projections. I expect Mayer to be our SS, Yorke to be our 2B, Casas to be our 1B, and Rafaela to be our CF That doesn’t mean they will be great, or maybe not even good. But it is impossible to discuss the future with an absolutely empty slate in front of you.
You to itself contradict.
First two months 2022 on the production of JD nobody influenced and all was good, then his productivity began to fall sharply for lack of Mookie.
Why absence Mookie didn’t influence on the first two months, smells double standards.
You compare a clean forward to the utilitarian – remarkably.
You slept through the last 2 seasons if lose such facts sight.
A few facts are about Kike.
He was one of the most productive players in 2021 with Bogie ( 4.9 WAR ); Martinez( 3.0 WAR ). Kike – fWAR 2.8, JD – fWAR 2.8.
He was hot from middle of June 2021 to the end of season together with Devers, Renfroe (from July), Dalbec (from August), Schwarber (from middle of August), bit of Martinez went out after All Star Game.
16.10.21
K.Hernandez 13 hits have in the last a 4 playing of post-season histories, that is the record of MLB.
He gave out the best season in a career in 2021.
In 2022
June 8, 2022 Boston Red Sox placed CF Enrique Hernandez on the 10-day injured list. Right hip flexor strain.
August 16, 2022 Boston Red Sox activated CF Enrique Hernandez from the 60-day injured list.
Kike skipped more than 2 months.
And even in this case he proposed 93 G – (0.9 WAR) in 2022; Martinez 139 G – (1.1 WAR 12 th place Red Sox 2022 ).
OBP of JD for the last 2 seasons fell down on 40 points in relation to 2019 ( .383); 2021 ( .349);
2022 ( .341).
The HR numbers aren’t as critical as the OBP numbers from JD.
For the clean forward of HR very important, as well as takes double not only for OBP, but also for SLG and OPS.
Only value of clean forward in his force and attack, whether to you it not knews.
XBH 73 – 2021; 60 – 2022.
Him OBP could be higher .341 if he struck anymore HR in 2022 however his force vanished.
Him ISO bruises along constantly, as for a clean forward very anxious sign and he will pass to the park of pitchers in 2023.
Why not to compare Martinez you as DH to date with by the forward of N.Cruz?
N.Cruz DH
2016 – 43 HR; .268 ISO; $14.25 m AAV; 35 Age
2017 – 39 HR; .261 ISO; $14.25 m AAV; 36 Age
2018 – 37 HR; .252 ISO; $14.25 m AAV; 37 Age
2019 – 41 HR; .328 ISO; $13.00 m AAV; 38 Age
2021 – 32 HR; .232 ISO; $13.00 m AAV; 40 Age
It you engage in collection of cherries and use double standards, ignoring facts that I gave higher.
Yanks, Rays, Jays are all much better.
Os may pass them too…
mmmkay
Captain – The only way you can’t see it is if you are looking in a different direction!!
Baltimore has Rutschman and Boston has McGuire. That sets the stage for why Boston will be the 5th place team.
Denial isn’t a good way to go through life. Face the facts…..Bloom destroyed the franchise for years.
They still need to upgrade the manager position
Unfortunately CaptJudge chaim can’t unilaterally shift the club to AAA or another division, so, last place in the east is about as low as one can realistically aim for.
Captain – I can see everything from the Red Sox finishing last to the Red Sox finishing in the postseason.
I have never understood why people insist on making predictions as if they are certain.
NOBODY CAN PREDICT HEALTH OR INJURIES.
PAST SUCCESS DOESN’T ALWAYS GUARANTEE FUTURE SUCCESS.
PAST FAILURES DON’T ALWAYS GUARANTEE FUTURE FAILURES.
NOBODY CAN PREDICT HOW A JAPANESE PLAYER WILL DO IN HIS FIRST MLB SEASON.
There are so many variables, why bother making predictions? Just seems like a colossal waste of time to me.
Fever – It’s all for amusement. Just like groundhog day. I doubt anyone believes the rodent can actually predict anything, but it’s good fun and games
Part of the point of statistics is to use them to predict trends and baseball is a game highly dependent on statistics so of course we’re all going to make predictions.
You’re right, there’s so many variables and on top of that variables we cannot account for. But you can make the assumption that many variables will often cancel each other out. Player A unexpectedly regresses while Player B unexpectedly does well. Team A has an injury to a star hitter while Team B has an injury to a star pitcher. Now these don’t all even out but since you can’t account for everything you have to assume “all else being equal.” Thus also the reason why predictions tend to come in ranges.
Saber – Well said. Big issue with trending the Red Sox is the dramatic change in talent. This happened after 2019 when Mookie and Price were given away. The talent in the clubhouse dropped off the table and the net result was the fourth pick in the draft. Why did it happen? Not only did talent drop but those that were talented had off years. That’s a double whammy you can’t predict.
In 2021, with talent incredibly low, the remnants of the 2018 team blossomed and performed at a much higher level so the team won more games than expected. Some delusional fans tried to argue that it was “the real value” of the roster while most understood it was a dramatic anomaly. In 2022, the Red Sox proved 2021 was an anomaly and that their talent level was dramatically lower than it was when Bloom arrived.
2023 is a season that will see an even bigger drop off in talent than what happened in 2020. In 2020, the team won 40% of their games. To peg 40% for 2023 based on the off season so far would be generous since the talent drop off exceeded 2020 yet those that believed 2021 was real will scream at the top of their lungs that a prediction like that comes from a hater. Math specifically statistics say otherwise.
40% of 162 games is 64.5 games. That’s Bloom’s year 1 benchmark extrapolated for a full season. 2020 the anomaly was 92 wins and 2022 was 78 wins. If Sale and Paxton are healthy, the drop off from 2022 to 2023 will be far less which suggest 78 wins is possible. Without them, 65 seems more likely. Thus, as you mentioned we have a range of 65 to 78. Anything beyond the 78 would be similar to 2021’s anomaly except we all know the 2018 stars created that anomaly and they are gone now so this will be more of a miracle than an anomaly if they exceed 78 wins.
The games have yet to be played so things could change but more than likely the errors will be made (some may be recorded if they aren’t against Devers), the strikeouts on offense will continue, the improper handling of the pitching staff will continue, the nepotism built into the line-up will continue and the team will continue to embarrass Red Sox Nation thanks to Bloom and Cora. I think that’s about as safe a prediction that I can make.
Fever Pitch Guy
Captain – I can see everything from the Red Sox finishing last to the Red Sox finishing in the postseason.
=========================
IMO, that is 100% fair. I’d have to go back to check, but I think I predicted 87 wins before the Story injury and recent signings.
That’s easily, easily within range of last year’s 78 wins, and easily within range of 2021’s 92 wins.
My only objection is to when fans make crazy predictions like 65 wins, which last happened 50+ years ago.
Red Sox, what to say, heading towards missing the playoffs.
Who do you think they’re better than, BAL?
Honesty, reviewing Duvall’s advanced metrics reads incredibly similar in profile to Joey Gallo. He’s basically the same player profile.
I wouldn’t have thought so, but that looks reasonable. Duvall is older, but with more recent success.
I think Duvall is a good signing for the R.S. He will play cf, freeing up Ki Ki to move back to the infield. I would expect a bounce back season, where Duvall hits 25+ hr’s, and 35 + doubles. Bloom will acquire either a second baseman or ss. Which one, will determine where Ki Ki plays this year.
Baseballhistory – Why do you care where a lifetime .241 hitter plays. On any good team he would be in the minors or the deep bench. What makes his lack of hitting so valuable to you? If he wasn’t the son of a close friend of Cora’s he wouldn’t even be on a roster!!
Last time hernandez played even 150 innings at SS was in LA, with a UZR of 0.0, UZR/150 of 0.4, OAA of -1.
And his batting lately stinks.
If that’s the savior of the mismanaged infield there’s a problem, and, the only position he showed sustained positive defense at is… you guessed it, CF, so you’re downgrading the defense by removing him from there to play a defensively inferior mix of players.
Can we hope for some upside and DFA brasier to make room on the 40 man?
Bounce back to what .220 with 170 K’s wow
That’s what she said.
Great. For once he did something right. Much needed power added to the lineup
Huge power. Massive power.
Really good pickup
FenwayFanatic – Duvall is the type of guy you get if you are a contender and need somebody off the bench with power. He could be the future that Dalbec doesn’t know yet. He’s not going to turn around a 65 win team.
I know. It’s just someone that I won’t openly root against next year.
Hopefully he stays healthy and pairs well with the monster
The best of what were bad options left. Looks like he’s your starting CF with Kike at SS and Arroyo at 2B.
Will he hit .200? But may hit 30 dingers
He’s essentially the same player as Hunter Renfroe, who so many thought was a huge mistake to trade away after 2021. Their career numbers are remarkably similar.
King – Exactly. He’s an expensive version of Bobby Dalbec or Hunter Renfroe or so many other power guys who can’t hit for average. Heck, with his low batting average Cora will probably hit him behind Kike and his .241 leadoff average!! hahaha The team is a joke right now and Bloom needs to go NOW.
I see why people want this to be the comp, and neither really stands out on a stat sheet, but Renfroe has better OBP, discipline at the plate, and is more capable of putting the bat on the ball. Each can hit it out, but Duvall has very little discipline at the plate, and really has trouble making contact against better pitchers that have control. They exploit the hell out of him. I hope he does well. Hell, I hope most of us are wrong about everything we see, but on paper……………….
Jackie Bradley light on D but with the same BA. 30 HR in the stick.
Another MAJOR LEAGUE player that could have helped the Reds missed out on by the kid GM who CONTINUES to sit on his hands instead of getting people to compete in a weak Central Division this season.
Reds need a lot more than Adam Duvall to compete for a division title, even in a weak division.
I agree they needed a lot more but they did NOTHING to improve. Absolutely nada.
Adam Duvall, Brian Anderson, Andrew Chafin, Chapman, Cueto, Wacha, Josh Harrison. Just a few who were or are out there that would make or would have made a big difference.
No excuses with a projected 80 million payroll when they have spent 130 in the past.
“Adam Duvall, Brian Anderson, Andrew Chafin, Chapman, Cueto, Wacha, Josh Harrison. Just a few who were or are out there that would make or would have made a big difference.”
Lets assume you do sign everyone on that list, what does that get you? REALISTICALLY only Duvall and Chafin really give you decent value all the rest are wildcards or fringe players.
You have number 5 pitchers in both Cueto and Wacha and neither will do a full season of pitching as they will most likely be hurt and miss roughly a 1/3 of games if not more. and maybe Cueto shows maybe mid rotation upside with an out of nowhere solid year. (Side note i wanted Cueto for depth on the mets)
Anderson takes which prospects bat now so they can take a step forward with prospect and hopefully next year they are in a better position to have a viable run at the division win
Chapman Harrison are lotto picks at best, Chapman will be be more of a nostalgic at best signing and harrison is a bench filler at best.
Also if you signed them all how many actual games do you expect the reds to win? Even if they make up half of the games behind of division lead (15 wins), they are still not even a 500 team as they would be at 77 wins. So basically you have improved the team enough to maybe be middle of the pack in drafts instead of top and now stunted growth of your prospect while put yourself another year behind a run This along with wasted potentially a prime year of your prospects. This is the year they want to see what they got from all their wheeling and dealing and with basically nothing major on the books as vottos deal falls off next year. and this lets them better strategize where they go with the team next year Hopefully after this year they have a few good years run of good prospects and well placed veterans and take the division lead.
The Reds are going to be the team that signs Bauer.
But now is the time to start adding. Greene & Lodolo are about as good as it gets for a young 1/2 punch. India & Stephenson, imho, should attain AS level, and Steer is likely at least an average 3B. They should set up a winning environment before promoting guys like de la Cruz & Marte.
They could play meaningful games if they added 1-2 mediocre rotation arms.
@JoeBrady Exactly what I have been trying to say. Have veterans around who help set up a winning culture for these young players, or at least a COMPETITIVE environment.
If I were Joey Votto, I’d be mad as hell to have my career wind down with this kind of team.
Even with the lord and savior Jesus Christ, the reds are a 4th place team at best in the central lol. Stop making it seem like they’re a piece or two away lmao
They lost so many one run games because of a bad bullpen, it was ridiculous.
Cardinals are not as good. Milwaukee either and trying to trade their pitching which will make them worse. Chicago improving but still not there and a lot of these guys never played together. Pittsburgh is Pitta urge but at least they signed a few major league players.
Point is, they are not even trying and they could make some noise with those three solid young starters, whose beginning of their careers they are wasting.
Reds, how are the Cardinals worse? We’ve more than doubled our offense at catcher and Yadi wasn’t yadi behind the plate even last year. Pitching staff is healthier. We lose Albert, but hopefully a healthy Tyler O’Neill and a full season of Nootbar. Ridiculous Homer take to say we’re worse
Wil Myers is better (and cheaper) than Adam Duvall
Contraras is not Yadi. You’ll see.
You are counting on Wainright. You say hope with ONeill and Nootbar. You are trying to trade for pitching and want to trade ONeill apparently.
If the pitchers are better, why are they trying to trade for more pitching?
I am looking at right now, not what ifs. One thing your guys have on your side is guys coming out of the minors and making an impact, pretty much regularly. That still might happen.
Maybe so, but they needed two outfielders at least.
No they don’t. They have 0.0% chance of competing in 2023, so why waste money on free agents when all it will do is help you fight for 4th place in the NL Central. It’s better to keep all that money off the books so that in 2024-2025 when Elly, Marte, CES, etc. are ready THEN you open up the pocketbook for complimentary free agent pieces
They haven’t even locked up their long term young assets like Stephenson, India, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Diaz like other teams with young players (Braves, Indians come to mind) have done.
Because if you want butts in the seats, you better provide some entertainment.
You’re really grasping for straws here man. Who have the guardians locked up long term besides Jose Ramirez? Shane Bieber doesn’t even have an extension
Indians back when they had a lot of young stars, not Guardians today. If I meant Guardians, I would have said Guardians.
Benintendi should have been the pickup in FAbeing an Ohio kid.
Harrison Bader for a year could have been a target from the Yankees. He was a Cardinal, decent speed can give you good service in the OF.
I wouldn’t mind seeing him in CF for the RSox, at some point sooner than later.
He may be cheaper, but is he better?
Thank God Contreras isn’t Yadi. I love Yadi Molina as a player and always will but he was horrendous last season. Couldn’t stay healthy, defense was crap and a 50 wRC+ Only thing Yadi was even remotely good at last year was calling a game.
Meant to comment on the Will Myers is better than Adam Duvall comp.
I agree on Benintendi. Same reason for bringing Harrison in. Could play anywhere they need him, like Reynolds last year only much better.
They will always be the Cleveland Indians!!
I’d like to read the comments, but I know in advance that 75% of them will be written by people suffering from Bloom Derangement Syndrome.
This is actually a good signing. He profiles as a better Hunter Renfroe coming in. Massive power, high K rate profiles same as Renfroe but runs better than Renfroe and is a MUCH better defender.
I called this early in the offseason and was surprised there was no traction until late
I wouldn’t call him a better renfroe. More like a little worse then renfroe.
Sox had to do something and taking a chance on Duvall is worth it but this isn’t a needle mover.
He can get hot and mash some homers but also can get ice cold for long stretches.
Renfroe would get hot for stretches and dissappear for stretches too. They are the same player in that respect. But what makes Duvall better is his defense. Renfroe had a hard time tracking baseballs and had many assists because he misread balls. Duvall also runs better. When you are better in two of three categories and the same in the third, it makes you better
Except they aren’t the same in the 3rd. Renfroe is a better hitter. I’m sure you want to ignore last years stats.
Simm, Duvall is a year removed from 38 homers and leading the Nl in RBI. Please ignore this fact too… Renfroe was fixed when he went to Tampa because he changed his approach. He further did when be came to boston. Duvall can do the same. Less Ks is the key
As far as I remember in 2021 of Renfroe was icy became three months and then his bat hotter to the end of season. True in a play-off she got cold.
Yes at age 34 he will finally stop striking out at a massive rate.
Coming off a wrist injury as well. I’d lower expectations so you’re not disappointed.
As I said though given the Red Sox current situation it’s worth the flyer. I don’t think it’s going to matter overall because this looks like a last place team with Duvall or not.
At 34 he is joining an organization that doesn’t have a theory of selling out for power finally. That’s what happened with renfroe and that’s why I’m optimistic
123 – the juiced ball is GONE. Any power projections you want to make off 2020, 2021 data and plan a return to that form… you’re missing that one key component.
Guys who had their calling card was mashing the juiced ball are falling to some long fly outs instead and lost the edge to their game.
PKCasimir – You should really find a different site to troll. When a group of people hate what an individual stands for as a politician it’s radically different than an astute set of fans disliking every wrong action by a GM.
Your comment was ignorant and typical of the influencers trying to off set the masses who hate each move Bloom makes since he tore down their beloved Red Sox. The Championship team is all but gone and what is left is disgusting.
There is no political agenda here, only a bunch of outraged fans because their championship team got dismantled by a know nothing small market GM who pretended to have made all the great moves in TB. Clearly, based on what’s happened since he left, he was a fly on the wall and learned nothing from the bright baseball minds that are behind all the brilliant TB moves over the last half decade.
U mad bro
Great another JBJ actually they’d probably be better off with JBJ because he’s a GG outfielder
Was.
Not anymore. JBJ is slowing down a little bit. Not a dig, in fact he was one of my favorite players with the Sox and I loved it when he got hot with the bat upon occasion.
@mcaae7187 Duvall won a GG in 2021. And led the NL in RBI and hit 38 homers. Bradley has never hit 30 bombs, driven in 100 and was an all star many years ago now.
Go look at his batting average and the lineup he was in with atl the sox don’t come anywhere close to what they had he’s also ticked to play CF and that’s his worst position it’s a horrible signing for 7m
With all due respect, batting average isn’t really all that indicative of a player’s ability to hit or hit in the clutch. If Duvall cuts down the Ks which I think he will do, he will mash in Boston. Just because CF is his worst position doesn’t mean he’s bad there. He graded out above average
I can tell you from his time in Cincinnati that LF is his best position.
Sox are punting this season. The problem was there was not much out there.
Same Old Song and dance, we’ll see what happens next winter with more guys available. Sox just didn’t want to pay big money to 40-Year-Old pitchers, 35-year-old pitchers and huge dollars to one of the shortstops. They wait till next year when there’s more guys available.., hopefully.
Maybe like a couple years ago they can catch lightning in a bottle this season and everyone has career campaigns and they make the playoffs?
At least the tax will be reset!! lol.
I think the Red Sox stated the Devers extension was top priority this off-season. Securing a superstar cornerstone long term does not seem like punting to me. This extension should not be over looked, its probably going to be one of the better long terms as it ages.
GoGreen I say they’re a punting because even with the Rafael Dever’s signing they’re still under the luxury tax by 17 million according to the article above.
When they “go for it” they’ll soar past that with signing of the right players. I just don’t think guys were available this year that would be smart moves as I mentioned above. Hope they give it a try next winter.
In the meanwhile they’re signing Major League guys but not Stars or impact players.
Yoshida was the best signing of the offseason. That contract is going to look so much better than all the absurd mega overpays handed out this offseason.
Duvall’s here just so the fans won’t complain about Jarren Duran playing outfield again. I hope the trade him, Dalbec, or Brasier for Duvall’s roster spot.
Red Sox could be the Mariners of the East Division maybe…
So was Bloom lying when he told Kiki Hernandez the team would be a lot better this coming season?
I think bloom meant to say they were going to get older next season.
I like the signing.He could be like Jason Bay was for the Sox.Or Mike Napoli.Not everybody the Sox signs will be a superstar.When you expect huge excitement.It usually ends in disappoinment.I don’t ever have huge expectations for the Sox.If they win i cheer if they lose well good teams and bad teams lose.If you don’t look at the average his numbers for doubles and homeruns have been good.I will love this deal,if he hits the ball with runners on 2nd or 3rd base with less than 2 outs.Most of the team last year struck out or hit into a double play to end a rally quickly.
The Red Sox could be a great team but for some reason they are content on finishing in last place. Bloom is getting fired at the end of the season.
Nah, ownership is on board with this. I’m sure they knew it was going to take time to build back the farm.
8 of the sox top 15 prospects were acquired under Dombrowski. We are nearing half a decade under Bloom now. I don’t want to hear about “it took a while to build the farm”. The farm has been built whether publicly recognized or not
that is all Bloom is trying to do
They went to the ALCS two years ago and last year were a .500 quality team dragged down a few extra losses and arbitrarily (and meaninglessly) slotted as “last place” by one of the best divisions in modern memory. They’re not “content” with anything. It’s clear they aren’t going remotely all-in on 2023, but there have been multiple Red Sox teams of recent vintage that supposedly were writing things off that went on to be plenty good.
How does a dude go from being a 1B-only minor league prospect to a gold glove center fielder? Darn it, what a strange game this is.
That made me laugh. And, although not entirely untrue, if I remember correctly, I think he got most of his work in the corner OF that year and kinda put in CF some out of necessity.
What do you expect when you shop at 5 and below……
Well when you’re the Red Sox you pay 7.
This is the deal. If the red Sox get sale or Paxton to be somewhat back to normal they will be in the wild card race. Do NOT sleep on This team. Devers Turner Yoshida Verdugo hernandez are all good hitters. Jensen will close out alot of games. Bello is going to be good and Whitlock as well.
I’m probably one of the few that agrees with this. I’m cautiously optimistic.
Yeah. Bello and Whitlock are talented pitchers. The one year deals are perect for guys like duvall.. Turner if healthy will rake there. Duvall can hit 25 hrs. The main piece is yoshida. If he turns out to be a stud you can build around him and devers. If not then they will walk devers alot and it will be an issue.
I am looking forward to the season to see how it plays out. The game is going to be a little different with the rule changes… specifically the shift rules and I think speed is going to be more important as well. If the Starting pitching is alot better, with the improved bull pen, they have a shot to compete for a Wild Card spot.
And after 2023 all the guys on 1 yr deals walk out the door and Bloom signs a bunch more
Who is Jensen? Did Jackie Jensen come back reincarnated as a pitcher?… or do you mean Jansen, the guy that just led the NL in saves
You know phones do auto correct right and change things sometimes? You know exactly who I meant.. But wow that joke was hilarious.
I aktily liked yor coment
123redsox
Who is Jensen?
==========================
Jansen is a closer that came from the Braves, and LAD before them. He’ll get some HOF votes when he retires.
I’m surprised you never heard of him.
Haha Joe I’m well aware of who Kenley Jansen is. I was making a joke, my dude
Yoshida will be the next Castillo I’ll put money on it it’s been reported plenty of time he’s a triple a player on a good day Verdugo is trash they should’ve kept Benny and ya they signed a almost 40 yr old hope and a prayer and Kiki is on the decline fast
As long as Christian Arroyo plays every day…I am fine with it
Red Sox added a career below average OPS+ and career below average wRC+ player who is on the downside of his career. Solid 5th OF, ok 4th OF. Is that the plan? Bench depth?
This is a great signing. Even a bit of a bounce back season, Duvall will bring some power to the lineup. And this will help address the middle infield situation, by letting Hernandez move there. And if nothing else, he will be a great mentor to Duran in CF.
Solid pickup for Boston at a bargain price. Defensive OF’s with no hitting can pull in this much money, and if his wrist is right, then it’s a steal. I don’t expect a high BA/OBP, but he will hit homers and drive in runs while playing an above average OF. He sprint speeds still amaze me as he is well above what most would expect.
Sure wish the Braves could have brought him back over Ozuna and Rosario, but those dollars were already on the books and had to make cuts somewhere. Hope he does well in Boston.
The season will depend on the health particularly of the starting pitchers…if that is good…we can win the east IMO, Story didn’t help but if he can make his way back & we are relevant by the deadline it’ll work
Flip him at the deadline, can’t be wrong there if you are the RedSox
Now go sign Trevor Bauer for league minimum! No charges where filed & we live in America innocent until proven guilty…also what woman goes back a 2nd time if it was so bad the 1st time? Anyway…ink him…he is the type competitor we need on the mound.
Agree, back here in the East, he’ll be vilified by many, but worshipped by some if successful and he’s coming cheap and is resolute in re-establishing his “brand” and gives Boston a “us against the baseball world” mantra.
Why not just sign Bauer and blow everything up. There’s not much left to ruin anyways. If you really like him, you could try to sign him to a dirt cheap extention probably because he knows they might be his only option.
The PR nightmare that would transpire if basically any team signed Bauer leads me to believe it is unlikely he will ever play in MLB again.
That isn’t true at all. The press will try running him out of town on the team he signs with. Most fans will be behind him (as long as he is pitching well).
If you remember, the Eagles signed Michael Vick, after he served 3 1/2 years, for the torturing and killing of dogs. It took awhile, but he was given a second chance, and made the most of it. What Vick did was light years worse than Bauer’s circumstances.
Yup, most of the complaints about Ozuna usually mention his production, and not so much the domestic violence and DUI incident. And very few Yankee fans ever complained about Chapman’s DV incident.
But I still wouldn’t sign the guy because of the disruption he and the press would cause. The press would be bad enough, but Bauer makes up for saying stupid things, by saying them at the wrong time.
Duval is not the answer in center from his offensive perspective. I truly feel him playing CF last year hurt him at the plate. He looked clearly smoked and didn’t have his legs under him. Just glad he isn’t in the NL East.
I will predict 25HRs .210avg, solid defense
It’s ancient history now, but the Red Sox have gotten SOME good production from NL players, we’ll have to see how this goes. It’s a good pickup. Right handed power, good defense (LF).
He will pepper the monster will his extreme pull hitting tendencies!
If Hicks and Texiera are any indication regarding this type of injury then BOS just threw away $7 mill.
It’s one year. Not like we signed him to a 7-year extension like Hicks.
His defense should be ok since it was his left wrist but it’s a power sapping injury that Duvall will be lucky to recover this quickly from. If Hicks had this injury in his walk year he never would have sniffed $70 mill.
The Pittsburg Pirates are paying 43-year old inning eater Rich Hill more, so…….
Tex only had two seasons with less than 100 OPS+, one of them being at age 36. I’d be pretty happy with almost any Tex season.
As a Braves fan, I love Adam Duvall and what he did for my team in ’21. I wish him all the luck in the world this year with the Sox, and hope they flip him to a contender at the deadline. If it happens to be to the Braves, I will be all for it. Love ya, Adam…
Hot take but the Red Sox aren’t worse…. Or better
Chaim is the king of treading water. The Sox are about as good as they were last year… problem is so is every other AL East team and the Jays/Orioles are even better than they were last year…
The Sox are going to continue to tread water until they fire Chaim
That’s a hot take indeed. With your logic: Bogaerts, Martinez, Hill, Wacha, Eovaldi, Strahm, and Seabold = Jansen, Duvall, Martin, Turner, Yoshida, and Kluber. I don’t see it honestly. Devers extension was big, but it does not impact the team this year.
With your logic: Bogaerts, Martinez, Hill, Wacha, Eovaldi, Strahm, and Seabold = Jansen, Duvall, Martin, Turner, Yoshida, and Kluber.
====================
That’s about right.
Bogaerts >> Yoshida
JD = JT
Wacha & Eovaldi ~ Kluber & Jansen
Martin > Strahm
Duvall = Hill
In my opinion:
Bogaerts >> Yoshida
J.D. = J.T.
Wacha and Eovaldi > Kluber and Jansen
Martin = Strahm
Duvall > Hill and Seabold
Honestly White Sox could’ve gotten him. I’m not sure they should be giving Colas the job right from the start. Swing and a miss I guess.
Yeah another high upside hopeful guy for Chaim Bloom on a cheaper contract. How about we pick up established players not players we are hopeful that they will do well. Cory Kluber is a major fragile injury risk. What did the other major league teams miss in Duval that Chaim Bloom saw? The other major league teams do not see much in this guy otherwise he would have been signed already. He paid Paxton 11 million last year to rehab and did not get a pitch out of him. Now you are hopeful he is going to be okay this year. Sale is not Bloom’s fault but how much do you think you are going to get out of him. He has been hurt the last 4 years.
His pickups this year are questionable at best. He does everything on a wing and a prayer. Yeah he signed Devers but there is not a doubt in my mind that was done to take the heat off the Story surgery that came out the following week. Story was damaged goods and that was why teams stayed away from him. Leave it to Bloom to run and sign the guy with an injured arm because he could get the guy 20 million dollars cheaper. Not a doubt in my mind that arm injury affects Story’s hitting as well. . He is at the buffet table three days later looking for bargains at shortstop and second base. Bloom does not trade well, case in point Connor Seabold and Jeter Downs, Renfroe for JBJ who cannot hit period. How he ever let Schwarber go is unbelievable. This team is a mess and hopefully it leads to the end of Chaim Bloom.
Way to go bean Town your red Sox are building quite the Field of dreams. Looking Lots better than a month ago! G’day mate
What makes for a good deal at this point in Red Sox history?
1 – Did money after 2023 get wasted? No. So that’s good.
2 – Did prospects get wasted to get the player? No. So that’s good too.
3 – Will the move hurt the development of current young players? Probably. That’s not so good.
4 – Will Boston go over the CAP with this move? No. That’s a good thing.
5 – Can Boston move him at the deadline for ANYTHING? Possibly. So that’s potentially good.
Suggestions that it’s a smart move or a good move based on the 2023 season is valueless. The Red Sox won’t compete in 2023 so adding or subtracting irrelevant talent is meaningless. The only thing that matters at this point is the future and not damaging it any further with Bloom moves.
Was this an acceptable move? Sure except it might take playing time away from Duran. Boston really should give him one more chance to prove himself or be gone. If Duvall takes his spot, then it’s a bad pick-up. Again, 45 or 75 wins in 2023 doesn’t matter. It’s a wasted season to figure out the future. Can’t figure out the future without giving the young players a chance to prove themselves.
Accept the 5th place status for the next few years and focus on developing the core players to go forward with a competitive team. That won’t happen until Bloom is gone but in the meantime it wouldn’t hurt to get a better feel for Casas, Dalbec, Duran and all the young pitchers. Lets get a better look so we can start planning the future.
PAB… agree 100% on Duran statement… can’t throw in towel yet on him or Bobby for that matter( even though Bobby has to do it now, honeymoon over for him) don’t forget houek… I feel he’s being undervalued by the nation… reminds me of a younger Pap…. Oh and by the way…. Still haven’t read any Hemingway yet ( nor plan on it)Lol!!!
oimtiant – nice response. enjoyed it! haha Good sense of humor!!
Duran is an immature kid and it showed last year when he was getting into arguments with fans and not retrieving a ball hit over his head. Bloom is afraid he is going to flop again this year. When fans see these rookies Bloom obtained flop they will say, “This is what we Have Been Waiting For”. Rookies take time to develop and that is why you mix them in with established players. None of the players he brought up last year were earth shattering.
True and you make a nice point about veterans with them during process but I feel houek was beyond solid last year and a step forward would be fantastic…
The veterans on the roster, particularly on the pitching side of the equation, leave a lot to be desired when it comes to getting the kids a good look and introduction to the majors.
There’s no innings eaters on the pitching staff. You want some guys to take the rock every 5th day and go a solid 6+ or longer IP, preferably 7. When you don’t have that and are putting lots of young arms on the staff there’s not just added pressure, the bullpen gets flat wore out. Means the manager leaves the kids in longer than he should because it’s not just a question of pulling a kid when he clearly doesnt have it that day or something is off, instead its darn the torpedoes full speed ahead and who cares if confidence in his stuff gets smashed, or he pushes towards dead arm… development takes a back seat to practical BP guys are unavailable and wore out themselves issues.
I am a Red Sox fan and this really is lipstick on a pig. The rotation actually got worse. They are praying Bello and Whitlock can be anchors. The lineup got worse as a whole. They improved the bullpen. Factor in the division and how their rivals all got better.
If this team gets close to matching the same record it is a victory. This team is either getting sold or they are positioning themselves for 2024 to start competing again.
How bad can he be in CF??? I remember watching Gorman Thomas play CF in 80”s and Gorman was a full figure man!!!!
oimtiant – So was Kirby Puckett!!!
As a Braves fan, I wish Adam all the best and hope he plays great for you guys. Watching last year though, it looked like playing CF physically wore him out, and affected his batting badly. It didnt look that way in the previous season, so it may have been some other things that affected his early season batting, but I wouldn’t have him as a full-time CFer, put him in a corner where he is a good fielder and let him concentrate on his batting and delivering the HRs.
Kiki at SS and Arroyo at 2B with Duvall in CF seems like the likely up the middle alignment as of right now. Adding Josh Harrison would probably help with versatility and giving Dalbec reps at 2B/SS in spring training would also be a good idea
Honestly at this point who cares if they sign Duvall to play center. I just live in fear that Bloom will trade away the future at a desperate attempt to be relevant this year.
This team, most likely, is at best an 80 win team. Oh sure if everything goes well and I mean everything then this could be a playoff team but on paper this is a team that battles the Orioles for the bottom in AL East.
This is year to evaluate what you have moving forward. I’m just afraid that Bloom is beginning to feel the heat and makes a stupid trade in a desperate attempt at being relevant this year. This is what worry’s me about this team this year.
As a Red Sox fan I will be watching even more minor league baseball this season. Salem is going to fun to watch with a ton of young talent to start. Watching AAA Worcester games should be a lot of fun as well watch Rafaela defensively in center field this guy is where triples go to die. He is already to take over in center defensively will be great to track how his hitting goes in AAA. By far the most important team to watch in the minors will be Portland I expect both Mayer and Yorke to spend the lions share of their time there this year.
I am ok with just trotting out the team they have today and roll the dice just don’t get desperate and trade the potential future someone who want help this team get to the playoffs this year.
Bruin1012 – Completely agree. Less moves rather than more moves is good. Wins don’t matter, the future does. All roads need to lead to a better future, without Bloom, Cora and maybe even the owners.
In 2022 Boston had five starters hit .274 or higher
1. JD – Gone
2 Bogaerts – Gone
3. Vazquez – Gone
4. Verdugo
5. Devers
In 2022 Boston had three starters with an OBP of .341 or higher
1 – JD – Gone
2 – Bogaerts – Gone
3 – Devers
In 2022 Boston had three starters with an OPS+ of 117 or more
1 – JD – Gone
2 – Bogaerts – Gone
3 – Devers
These thresholds are not high yet 5, 3 and 3 exceeded them and 2, 1 and 1 still remain on the team. This indicates a severe need for hitting in 2023. (in 2018 there were 4 over .274 plus Pearce who started late in the year, there were four with an OBP over .341 plus Pearce again making 5, there were four plus Pearce with OPS+ over 117 in 2018. The remarkable part is Devers exceeded none of these hurdles in 2018!! That shows how great and deep that team was. Holt also exceeded most of the hurdles that year!)
Maybe Duvall can beat one or more of the thresholds without costing money beyond 2023. That would be great. Winning 78 games with that much less on offense is not likely. There are no longer multiple DD guys to fall back on like in 2021. This team has lost it’s non-Bloom safety net that saved them in 2021. To me, this team could be scary bad on the negative side and slightly below .500 on the positive side. Either way, it’s a huge step down from the teams before Bloom arrived.
I’m with you. Do whatever you want Bloom just don’t hurt the future any more than you already have..
In 2023 Boston will have five starters hit .274 or higher :
1.Devers
2.Turner
3.Yoshida
4.Verdugo
5 Arroyo
In 2023 Boston will have four starters .OBP of .341 or higher;
1.Devers
2.Turner
3.Yoshida
4.Casas
In 2022 Boston will have three starters with an OPS+ of 117 or more;
1.Devers
2.Turner
3.Casas
Reynolds for Bello or Houck and Casas.
Duvall still has to pass a physical.
Madman from everything we have seen and heard Pittsburg wants an arm and a leg for Reynolds I don’t think that moves the needle.
From the Red Sox perspective I really hope that they don’t trade those guys in that scenario. There are a couple of reasons why the first is I see Reynolds as a last piece of the puzzle guy not a foundational piece. He would be great get for the Yankees he might put them over the top this is not the case for Boston. The second reason is Rafaela he is Bostons near term solution in center, I’m not saying he is as good as Reynolds and Reynolds would certainly be an upgrade but he costs to much from a prospect level. I would just wait and see in, what’s sure about Rafaela is his defense it’s next level this makes him viable if he doesn’t hit his offensive ceiling but if he does he has a chance to be a special player. For these two reasons I would pass on acquiring Reynolds for the assets he’s going to take to acquire.
If I’m the head of the Yankees I would push hard to acquire this guy.
Boston won’t do that.
No way
I wouldn’t do it. 6 years of either Casas or Bello figure to be as good as 3 years of Reynolds.
Glad he was inexpensive. Not really sold on this guy. He doesn’t hit for average and barely hits 20 homeruns most seasons. We will see. Stats are scattered so hard to know how he will perform.
Good pickup. The Red Sox rotation is either seasoned and faulty or unseasoned. So if the veterans do well, the flip is that young pitchers won’t get as much experience. If they falter, then rookies will get experience and that could be good. There’s no good experienced pitchers that are healthy enough so it’s just gonna be one of those years. The bullpen is good and we’ll need them along with the taxis to and from Worcester. I’m excited to see what Casas play and I like Turner over JD. Expectations are low but could blossom to something beautiful down the line
Good Landing spot for Him.
Good Lunching spot for Him. Mmm, chowda
This is the guy the Mets preferred Tommy Pham to? Wth are they doing in Queens?
reminds me of the cody ross signing in 2012. could be a bargain in that ballpark
That tendon sheath injury is a career killer. A lot like Thoracic outlet surgery. Tex and I think Hicks have had it. Not good.
Red Sox have signed Raimel Tapia last night. This means someone is getting traded, most likely Jarren Duran or Alex Verdugo
No one is getting traded.
This guy will battle Jarren Duran for playing time. His defense is horrible and barely hangs on as a slap hitter who doesn’t make contact.
But hey, the Red Sox need depth in the Outfield so this guy is as good as any on a minors deal. That and he tears it up at Fenway park.
We have Duran, Tapia, Duvall, Hernandez, Verdugo, Yoshida, and Refsnyder in the Major Leagues alone.
Verdugo Duval Yoshida start.
Ref and either Tapia or Duran on the bench.
Hernandez probably moves to shortstop unless they sign Elvis Andrus or Iglesias. In that case perhaps both Tapia and Duran wait for their chance in the minors because Hernandez either moves to Center or to second.
Still much to figure out, but no one is getting traded because the Red Sox signed tapia.
I think the key word you may have missed is that Tapia signed a “minors” deal.
Yeah, I didn’t know if it was a majors or minors deal yet
Not on a minor league de
A 34 year old 230 hitter that is signed on a one year deal is part of the plan ?…. Um ok
A career OBP around a good players BA, for 7MM. I feel like this is a vast overpay. Seemed destined for a MiL contract with an invite to ST, yet another “magical” move for he who can do no wrong.
Maybe they’re hoping for the 2019 baseball brought back this year. The last time he was good. Don’t they have minor leaguers who could produce a sub .300 OBP? At age 34-35, I’m not expecting much. Maybe some advanced analysis of the nixing of the shift made him valuable to the FO. I’d have preferred Gallo or even JDM brought back if they were dumpster diving.
Gallo and JD suck. Duvall had a number of teams after him and considering what others are getting, $7m seems fair.
“In whome”
ugh.
The Sawx dumpster diving…has become a dumpster fire. What next? They re-sign Ryan Dempster?
Where are all the DH’s on the Red Sox roster going to play? Who is going to play 2B and SS? If Hernandez plays 2B or SS, does that mean Duvall will be the starting CF? Christian Arroyo an every day starter? That rotation is no bueno. Maguire and Wong the only two catchers on the 40 man with only Alfaro to back them up? Right up against the CBT threshold? What a glorious mess in Boston.
At least they’ll roll out a major league team. Better than trotting out Duran in Center and a couple others with no experience.
Basically punting on the year again because they did not want to sign a big money shortstop or sign a couple 35 to 40-Year-Old starting pitchers.
Hopefully next winter with their tax below the line they can go gangbusters again. Kind of like what I said last year lol. Oh well there’s hope in the future.., I think.
PulledaBloom – You to itself contradict.
First two months 2022 on the production of JD nobody influenced and all was good, then his productivity began to fall sharply for lack of Mookie.
Why absence Mookie didn’t influence on the first two months, smells double standards.
You compare a clean forward to the utilitarian – remarkably.
You slept through the last 2 seasons if lose such facts sight.
A few facts are about Kike.
He was one of the most productive players in 2021 with Bogie ( 4.9 WAR ); Martinez( 3.0 WAR ). Kike – fWAR 2.8, JD – fWAR 2.8.
He was hot from middle of June 2021 to the end of season together with Devers, Renfroe (from July), Dalbec (from August), Schwarber (from middle of August), of bit of Martinez went out after All Star Game.
16.10.21
K.Hernandez 13 hits have in the last a 4 playing of post-season histories, that is the record of MLB.
He gave out the best season in a career in 2021.
In 2022
June 8, 2022 Boston Red Sox placed CF Enrique Hernandez on the 10-day injured list. Right hip flexor strain.
August 16, 2022 Boston Red Sox activated CF Enrique Hernandez from the 60-day injured list.
Kike skipped more than 2 months.
And even in this case he proposed 93 G – (0.9 WAR) in 2022; Martinez 139 G – (1.1 WAR 12 th place Red Sox 2022 ).
OBP of JD for the last 2 seasons fell down on 40 points in relation to 2019 ( .383); 2021 ( .349);
2022 ( .341).
The HR numbers aren’t as critical as the OBP numbers from JD.
For the clean forward of HR very important, as well as takes double not only for OBP, but also for SLG.
Only value of clean forward in his force and attack, whether to you it not knews.
XBH 73 – 2021; 60 – 2022.
Him OBP could be higher .341 if he struck anymore HR in 2022 however his force vanished.
Him ISO bruises along constantly, as for a clean forward very anxious sign and he will pass to the park of pitchers in 2023.
Why not to compare Martinez you as DH to date with by the forward of N.Cruz?
N.Cruz DH
2016 – 43 HR; .268 ISO; $14.25 m AAV; 35 Age
2017 – 39 HR; .261 ISO; $14.25 m AAV; 36 Age
2018 – 37 HR; .252 ISO; $14.25 m AAV; 37 Age
2019 – 41 HR; .328 ISO; $13.00 m AAV; 38 Age
2021 – 32 HR; .232 ISO; $13.00 m AAV; 40 Age
It you engage in collection of cherries and use double standards, ignoring facts that I gave higher.
World Series hero
Whew, I was worried this was never going to happen…../s