The Padres have recently checked in with righty Michael Wacha, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. San Diego has also shown recent interest in veteran southpaw Cole Hamels as part of his comeback effort, according to Acee.
Those hurlers are in very different spots of their careers. Wacha is the best remaining free agent starting pitcher and the only hurler who made MLBTR’s top 50 free agents at the start of the offseason who is still unsigned. The 31-year-old is coming off a solid season for the Red Sox, making good on a $7MM free agent deal to turn in a 3.32 ERA across 23 starts and 127 1/3 innings.
Wacha’s camp apparently entered free agency with a fairly lofty goal on the heels of that showing. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported last month his camp had been seeking around $30MM over two seasons. There hasn’t seemed to be sufficient interest from the market to push prices to that level, and Acee suggests Wacha’s asking price has lowered as the regular season draws nearer.
On the surface, a $15MM average annual value over two years isn’t an outlandish ask for a pitcher who posted such a strong ERA during his platform year. However, there are a handful of other indicators that raise questions about Wacha’s ability to sustain upper mid-rotation production. The 2022 season was the first in four years in which the veteran hurler allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine innings and came on the heels of consecutive campaigns with an ERA above 5.00. Wacha’s peripherals weren’t dramatically different from those of his prior showings.
Last year’s 20.2% strikeout rate was his lowest since 2019, as was his 9.5% swinging strike percentage. Wacha’s average fastball speed was at exactly 93 MPH after sitting at 93.6 MPH and 93.8 MPH, respectively, in 2020-21. His ground-ball rate was up a couple percentage points relative to his past couple years and he demonstrated the above-average control he’s owned throughout his career. Yet the most significant difference in 2022 was that opponents hit only .260 on balls in play after combining for a .324 BABIP between 2020-21.
Of course, there’s room for Wacha’s ERA to regress while still remaining palatable. Thanks largely to his plus strike-throwing, he’s posted a SIERA between 3.99 and 4.07 in each of the last three seasons. He’s a capable back-of-the-rotation starter, making him a reasonable fit for a win-now San Diego team that’s prepared to take some risk in their starting staff. Converted relievers Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo are respectively penciled into the fourth and fifth rotation spots behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. The Friars are taking a leap of faith in both pitchers’ ability to hold up as starters — Martinez fared better as a reliever last year, and Lugo hasn’t topped 100 innings since 2018 — and adding a stable veteran like Wacha could alleviate some of the pressure on Martinez and Lugo.
It doesn’t appear San Diego is looking to displace either of that duo from the rotation. Manager Bob Melvin told reporters this afternoon the club had yet to decide whether to proceed with a five-man or six-man starting staff (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). That could well depend on the team’s personnel, and bringing in Wacha would likely lead to the expanded rotation. Among internal options, Adrián Morejón, Reiss Knehr, Jay Groome and Pedro Avila are among those could battle for starts if the Friars want to lessen the load on their top five and/or incur any injuries.
The club’s openness to a six-man rotation could play into their interest in Hamels, although he certainly wouldn’t secure a guaranteed rotation job at the time of his signing. The four-time All-Star has had his last three seasons derailed by injuries. He’s started just one MLB game since the start of the 2020 season, missing the past two and a half years as various ailments (most notably recurring shoulder problems) have kept him out of action. He didn’t sign anywhere last year but is hoping for a comeback at age 39.
To that end, the longtime Phillie threw in front of scouts in late January. He’ll have to settle for a minor league contract after two lost seasons but seems likely to get a look from some club in Spring Training if healthy. Hamels is no stranger to the area, having grown up in San Diego and entering pro ball as a first-round pick out of Rancho Bernardo High School back in 2002.
They ban Bauer for being a dirt dog but we have to see Wacha throw straight meat for another year? Rather see Trev pull on Chaim’s ponytail.
Easygas- what did you find out in your investigation that Pasadena PD didn’t?
Idk Trevor a pretty weird dude, prob dirt dogged the chick but much better pitcher then Wacha.
A Cy Young award in the convoluted mess that was the 2020 season does not a better pitcher make
@Rsox…especially as we know he had his best success using sticky stuff. He basically admitted. He’s likely a tick above a league-average starter without it. Not worth the money or headache.
The two year playing gap, the spider tack ban, and Basic Marketing 101, all dictate that Bauer will sit out 2023 at least as to USA.
Let the man show some humility, play a year in Independent ball, Asia, Central America or beg for a minor league deal with a bigger apology.
Guy gets run out of almost every clubhouse he’s been in and you’re surprised no one wants him back in? There is no conspiracy. His reputation precedes him.
User name checks out
Listen, Trevor. You went too far. Be happy you’ll collect another $20MM+ this year. Head off quietly into the sunset. Maybe get married and have a daughter so you might feel some more humanity toward the opposite sex.
Rob
Your post is well intended but this is not a guy mature enough yet for parenthood.
Dude should be pitching. He’s one of the best. Who cares about off the field crap. He wasn’t even charged.
Dude it’s marketing 101. If you like Bauer, watch MMA cage fights bruh. Better yet sign Bauer for a cage fight against the top female MMA and watch the pervs dole PPV money for it.
I watch baseball to see the best of the best. If you think Wacha is better than Bauer than I’d question your baseball knowledge. I could care less what they do off the field or their opinions. They are entertainers. When did you lose you testacles??
He beat those women… wanting it or not, what he did was borderline insanity…
Nobody deserves to he hit like they were
Bauer should be in jail where other men would hit him that hard during sex
“..lose you testacles??” classic
… wanting it or not, what he did was borderline insanity…
=========================
That’s what they use to say about gay sex.
And I believe that interracial stuff was outlawed once upon a time.
And I believe that certain forms of intimacy are still outlawed in some states.
Just want to thank “TurnofftheTV” for one of the more ridiculous sets of posts we’ve seen in some time
Yeah, equating one’s loss of guts with a sense of morality is a winning trope
Here’s hoping you never have kids
My daughter thinks I’m great. The Bauer thing was a perfect teaching moment about putting yourself in certain situations. I love that weaklings don’t like me or my opinions. Weak men are what have created the hard times we are going through now.
30 million for 2 years of can’t stay healthy injury prone Micheal Wacha?
I feel bad, he was definitely worth that in 2013
Of course they are and they will sign him for 75 years and 67 billion dollars.
Do you notice how all your friend(s) don’t really laugh at your jokes…
Lol.
Not sure how the Pads could add Wacha and stay under the next luxury tax tier. Would love to have him though.
Only way they can stay under the last threshold with signing him is by unloading salary in a trade. Probably the most realistic way you could do that is by attaching a prospect to Pomeranz and clearing our that $8.5M luxury tax hit.
At that point you’re losing prospect value and a possibly good reliever (IF healthy) plus paying Wacha so I don’t really see the point.
Maybe try to deal Kim and move Cronenworth 2B and Carp at 1B?
They could trade Kim for a young, controllable starter instead of using the savings from trading him to sign a dinosaur.
Kim would be a useful player as well as a teammate/fan favorite no matter where he plays. He is already good and is getting stronger and better.
The Padres know that and aren’t going to trade him.
I doubt too many teams covet Kim to the point of trading away a good controllable pitcher, but any team that did that would not regret it.
“Probably the most realistic way you could do that is by attaching a prospect to Pomeranz and clearing our that $8.5M luxury tax hit.”
CNichols;
lol
I forgot about that Pomeranz contract.
Don’t worry, when he’s off the books there will be many others
to replace him.
Want no part of Bauer. I would rather see Wacha throw straight meat for another year. With the injuries to Montas and now Cortes, the Yankees should definitely be calling for his services for a year. No reason why German and Wacha can’t be a #4 and #5 in the starting rotation respectively.
This article doesn’t even mention Bauer…
I agree, CaptainJudge, but Hal has decided the Cohen-tax line means instant death, even though there are no additional penalties beyond monetary ones. He won’t cross it.
Wacha Wacha eh eh
The Padres will only have interest in Wacha if he is willing to take a minor league deal.
Foolish , he’ll sign MLB Contract, look what he did last year.
Then it probably won’t be with the Padres.
Along with the Blue Jays, I expect the Padres to surprise a lot of people this year.
Nobody will be surprised considering the lineup
I think Samuel is talking about surprise in a bad way
The Blue Jays and Padres will surprise everyone with 2nd place this season in their division, not that there’s anything wrong with that.
The only way either surprise anyone is if everything goes horribly wrong for both. Both were playoff teams last year and both have eyes on October again. As much as i hope the Red Sox win (i am realistic) a Padres/Blue Jays World Series could be fun
Don’t know if they can really be considered surprises considering their rosters and recent success
Samuel- And which way is that?
Friar Insurance Policy. You can Never have Enough Pitching. Blake is usually a Late starter. 6 man rotation probably. Injuries from WBC. Sign him Now.
Padres were 44-27 tied for 1st on June 22 2022. For the rest of the season they went 45-46. They backed into the playoffs losing 5 of their last 8 games, fortunate that the Brewers were moving backwards faster than they were. In the playoffs they played hot but the bubble burst. The 2023 Padres are no better than the team that played a game under .500 for the last 3 months of 2022.
….. yeah, they are no better, ’cause we all know that adding Tatis and Bogaerts means nothing, anyhow. Oh, and that Hader guy’s closing career is done, he’s a loser. Oh..oh..oh, and Soto, we knew all along that his performance during the last two months of 2022 was the best he’ll ever be.
Yep, you’re right. They’re no better …
… and you proved definitively that you know NOTHING about baseball.
Go get him Salt!!
OldSaltUSNR;
Didn’t you write something like this about the Padres a year ago? Or was it late in the 2023 season?
I find it amusing that posters that respond to others they disagree with use some version of: “….you know NOTHING about baseball.”
Pot. Kettle.
@Samuel
I have no idea what I posted a year ago, but I’m glad that at least, you are tracking social media posts. (I mean, if you don’t do it, who else will?)
I do agree that “you know nothing about baseball” is a bit of a trite, off-repeated derisive phrase. However, it’s not about who agrees with me or not. It’s about someone who is so partisan for their own team (teams?) and against others, that they’ll write some ridiculous nonsense as THIER opinion. It just gets old, and I really didn’t want to be offensive, like maybe calling the guy a partisan idiot.
And again, THAT opinion is not because I’m a Padres fan, but that his comment is so apparently, factually, obviously inaccurate. When I say stupid stuff, feel free to call me an idiot, as well. Just don’t do it by implying that I said the same thing a year ago. I am pretty certain that I haven’t used that particular comment, ever before. Certainly not here, because I don’t post here very much.
Post more. Don’t care what the doctors say, can’t get too much Salt.
Most of what I’ve read indicates that, for normal-weight individuals, salt is perfectly fine. And too little salt has negative health implications as does too much salt.
Once more example of scientists make a lot of guesses.
The only was the Padres miss the playoffs in 2023 is multiple injuries among Darvish, Musgrove, Machado, Tatis, Soto and Bogarts. Is it possible, sure. But anyone who wants to be even money against the Padres getting 90 wins, I’m taking the Friars. I do think the Dodgers and Padres will be close at the finish and if Dodgers edge Padres by a couple games or vice versa neither would be a surprise to me.
@MannyBeingMVP
I HAVE written the proverbial phrase “that’s why they play the games” quite a few times, because it’s true. Nothing AJ Preller, Melvin, or the players do can guarantee even a winning season starting at day one in the season. It’s why we all watch the drama of live action. There WILL be injuries. There almost certainly will be some breakout new stars, and almost equally as certain (heck, probably TWICE as certain) that there will be some under-achieving players.
I have confidence that the Dodgers will be in on every game, every series, and competitive the entire season. I think that they’re deeper than the Pads, in many ways (e.g. farm system, and $$ resources). I have confidence that the Padres will be entertaining, and fairly competitive, but that’s as far as I’ll go. I think that “on paper”, the Padres 2023 are the better team, but not by much. The Dodgers have some history, lots of cash to spare, and tradeable farm assets to rescue them if they get into trouble in any given month of the season. AJP will continue to deal, but I think he’s more constrained.
Old Salt
Nothing that I’d disagree with in the last post. Cartaya, Miller, Stone, Pepiot, Grove, Busch, Pages, those are assets that every team could use.
And the D-Backs have some great kids coming. You do have to play the game, but for an even money bet, Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Atlanta and Phillies all look like 2023 playoff teams. Inevitably, some favorites flame, but they are justifiably favorites.
Some things to think about for Dodgers. How will Urias perform on the precipice of a quarter of a billion dollars? How healthy are Gonsolin, Kershaw, May and Thor? But I still would easily bet on the Dodgers to hit 90 wins in 2023 and to make the post-season and be in a tight division race.
Part of that 45-46 record and exit in the PO might have had something to do with Soto and Bell choking, especially in the PO.
Your stats are true but there were a lot of distractions with the Tatis situation and expectations after the trades and they still kept composure and made a deep playoff run including beating 2 100-win teams and our hated rivals the Dodgers. What more can you ask for
Another arm like Wacha’s is a good add, for the right price. Hamels on a minor league deal couldn’t hurt. If not, they go into the battle with some of the youngsters and see if one or two work out…
@Anthony Franco. Well-written! On the profar/wacha poll I brought up glossing over poor stats in some articles, and this one does exactly like I suggested. It’s not roasting a player to point out red flags, and this article does a great job providing pros and cons.
I swear if another person says the Dodgers ever attempted to buy a championship without first mentioning the Padres of 2021-2023…..
As a Padres fan, I gotta admit that I agree with you.
Also, it’s going to be pretty aggravating for teams who call themselves “small market” or “medium market” teams, to cry “poor!” when it comes to competition. The Padres will be paying the same “big league, big market” tax that teams like the Dodgers, with literally $1.5B if cash flow annually from just their stadium rights, tickets, and media rights, also pay.
The difference between the Dodgers and Padres, when it comes to costs and money, and “buying a championship”, is the level of risk they are assuming. The Padres have it all on the line, Seidler’s putting all his cookies on the line. The Dodgers are still banking lots of cash, and can buy them out of any little mishaps, like the one named Bauer.
I’m not thrilled with the level of risk the Padres are assuming, because it could mean that they become so financially constrained that they are forced to field non-competitive teams for what could well be, the rest of my natural life (i.e. I’m in my late 60’s). However, I admire Seidler for doing what the Dodger’s ownership won’t do, when it comes to risking their fortunes. The Dodger ownership are just using the team as a hobby, and that’s not knocking the quality of the Dodgers baseball organization (which is top flight!).
I’m sure most teams have seen if he has been more reasonable lately.
Except the Reds of course, who should but Nick Krall sleeps with the fishes.
Instead of signing Bogaerts to that ridiculous contract, the Pares should have signed Verlander. Now they are left sniffing around Wacha.
Verlander is hella old and wasn’t going to sign here. Bogaerts is a super star player with tons of controllable years
When people don’t understand basic math they write things like this. Verlander is 43m AAV and Bogaerts is 25m aav. If you want to compare those 2 they can fit Bogaerts and Yu Darvish on his new deal at 18m aav for the price of Verlander.
Yeah, but Verlander has a three year deal and then the Mets can spend the 43 million on other players, Bogaerts is for a decade. I though the Darvish extension was on the mark. Comparing Verlander and Bogaerts is apples and oranges.
Two years, twenty mil for a #4 starter works for me.
Hi Old salt Here’s hoping “the rest of [your] natural life” is a long time so you can continue to submit interesting and well-arguued posts!
Feels like all the free agents went or stayed in the NL.
6 man rotation to start year last season was perfect. They’ll settle into 5 man rotation after All Star Break. Sign Wacha and wait for Opening Day.
I’m perplexed why Bloom hasn’t tried to resign Wacha. He was one of the positives last year.
According to the article, the reason is likely that he wants $30M/2. It’s just too much. I’d give him a shot at $20M/2.
Fair point.
Seems like a no brainer for the padres unless he’s still demanding a ridiculous amount of money. If I’m the padres, I’d take a chance on Bauer and Hamels also. No reason not to. The west is the “weakest” it’s been in a very long time and this is a good chance for the padres to win the division (not that it matters anymore in this playoff structure).