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MLB Monitoring Diamond Sports Group Uncertainty

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Diamond Sports Group, the corporation which owns the Bally Sports networks responsible for local broadcasts of a number of MLB teams, forewent interest payments worth roughly $140MM to creditors last Wednesday (Associated Press link). The decision kicked off a 30-day window for Diamond to determine whether it is capable of meeting its debt obligations or is going to default on its commitments.

The missed payment came as no surprise, with various reports noting Diamond’s rough financial situation for months. Should the corporation default and potentially file for bankruptcy, it’d likely have a few options: honor its existing contractual commitments, withdraw from the deals, or attempt to renegotiate its contracts at more manageable rates. Diamond has separate broadcasting deals with all 14 MLB clubs* with which it has contracts; renegotiations, if things come to that, would be at a team-by-team level rather than in any kind of package deal.

There’s still plenty to be determined about the company’s next steps. Its precarious financial position places a great deal of uncertainty about the stability of local TV rights for the clubs that have contracts with Diamond, however. Commissioner Rob Manfred addressed the situation at last week’s owners meetings, noting that the league is exploring alternatives to make sure those teams don’t lose in-market broadcasting (link via Alden Gonzalez of ESPN).

“Obviously, our first choice would be that Diamond pay the clubs what they’re contractually obligated to pay them, but because I guess I’m a contingency planner by nature, we are prepared no matter what happens with respect to Diamond to make sure that games are available to fans in their local markets,” Manfred said. “We think it will be both linear in the traditional cable bundle and digitally on our own platforms, but that remains to be seen. … Our first hope is that Diamond figures out a way to pay the clubs and broadcast the games like they’re contractually obligated to do.”

The league makes most out-of-market games available to subscribers to its MLB TV package. However, clubs’ local broadcasting deals supersede the league platform, leading to blackouts of in-market games on MLB TV. Manfred broadly indicated a desire to eventually permit MLB TV consumers to purchase various broadcasts both within and out of market (via Hannah Keyser of Yahoo! Sports), though that certainly won’t happen on a league-wide level anytime soon.

MLB has already branched out into various streaming deals. The league agreed to contracts with Apple and NBC for broadcasting arrangements on those companies’ respective streaming services last year. It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see MLB negotiate similar deals with other platforms over coming seasons. Those contracts — paired with various postseason TV deals, including a new broadcasting contract with ESPN tied to the creation of the Wild Card round in the most recent CBA — highlight the kind of national revenue bases the league will certainly continue to explore outside the realm of local broadcasting. Nevertheless, the uncertainty with Diamond is sure to be an area of concern within the league office over the coming months.

Diamond first purchased various regional sports networks, which had been under the Fox Sports moniker, from Disney in 2019. The company reportedly took on roughly $8 billion in debt to facilitate that transaction. As Travis Sawchik of The Score explored last month, rates of cable ownership have dropped precipitously over the past couple years, contributing to Diamond’s revenues falling short of its expectations. Declining cable rates are generally expected to continue in the future given the ongoing rise of various streaming platforms.

Concerns about a potential default have raised questions about the player payrolls for the teams that rely on local broadcasting fees from Diamond. It’s still too early in the process for clubs to have a firm idea if/how Diamond’s situation will affect player spending, though it’s something those organizations are surely monitoring.

Cardinals’ chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. addressed the situation shortly before Diamond failed to make its February 15 interest payment, for instance. “It’s a concern and a fluid situation, there’s no question about it,” he said last week (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). “Something is going to happen sooner rather than later. It’s a big part of our revenue stream. We have nice rights fees. The (RSN) model is at risk. We’re operating like, no, it’s going to stay, but the reality is there’s going to be change.”

The situation has led to concerns about the possibility of a lowered salary cap in both the NHL and NBA. Those leagues, which have player spending fixed to league revenues as part of their respective collective bargaining agreements, each have a number of clubs with broadcasting agreements with Diamond. MLB, of course, has no salary cap. The MLB Players Association has steadfastly resisted any hard limitations on team spending throughout past CBA negotiations.

Questions about a potential league push for a cap arose again over the weekend. MLB created an Economic Reform Committee, which the commissioner indicated was in response to both this ongoing local TV uncertainty and more longstanding concern about revenue disparities between franchises. There’s little chance of the MLBPA entertaining a cap during the next round of collective bargaining negotiations in 2026, however. That would’ve been true regardless of the status of local RSN contracts but seems apparent as ever in light of the questions facing those cap leagues.

* The Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Padres, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Royals, Tigers, and Twins are all broadcast by Bally.

The MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Model Had Its Best Year Ever

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With the last of the arbitration hearings officially in the books, we can now officially report that this was the most accurate year that the MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Model has ever had. The model estimated salaries within ten percent of salaries for 69% of cases – breaking the previous record of 65% and well above the 54% low point just three years ago.

When I began working on this model way back in 2011, I defined success based on how often my model was within ten percent of the actual arbitration salary for all arbitration-eligible players who signed one-year deals. The initial goal was to be within ten percent for half of such cases. For the 2011-12 arbitration season, the model was within ten percent on 55% of all cases. The model has consistently been in that range or higher, peaking at 65% in the 2014-15 arbitration season, while only dipping below it once with 54% in 2019-20. It averaged 58% over its first nine years. 

Over that time, I repeatedly ran tests on the model, considered new modeling techniques, and had discussions with agents and others with experience in the arbitration space about how to improve the model. There were steps forward, although after picking each piece of low-hanging fruit, the gains were smaller. Ultimately, I pivoted to a focus on more accurate and cleaner data. This was initially something that Bryan Grosnick helped with behind the scenes, and Darragh McDonald took over last year. They both helped tremendously. 

One important process change that I incorporated into model updates in recent years is checking which players would have been the “biggest misses” after updating the model. In many cases, the salaries that “missed” were not reflective of the actual salaries earned. Yet the model was awkwardly contorting itself to fit those purported outcomes. Some of the process of improving data quality was just a matter of finding typos. But in many cases, it was about correctly identifying the “true” arbitration salary a player received. When players avoid arbitration via settlement, they often get performance bonuses, signing bonuses, options for future years, or multi-year agreements. These cases are incorporated into the modeling process where appropriate, but sometimes the “salary” a player literally earned was not really intended to account for the actual arbitration award he would have gotten at a hearing. Cleaning the data involved some subjectivity, but it was designed to better record the intended salary that teams and agents were treating as a baseline when they negotiated more complicated agreements.

More tedious updates to data accuracy are not the most thrilling part of model building. Coming up with creative mathematical methods or just innovative variables to utilize is a more rewarding intellectual exercise for the researcher. But the truth is that better data is often more important than a slightly smarter model. I will continue to evolve the model based on the relevant statistics and factors utilized in the arbitration process, but in recent years I ultimately improved the model more with better data without structuring it differently.

As a result, the model should be more accurate in future years than it has been in the past. See below for a graph showing the performance of the model each year.

Rockies Notes: Bryant, Bird, Suter

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Kris Bryant’s first season in Colorado didn’t go as envisioned, with injuries combining to limit the former MVP to 42 games. Bryant hit well in that limited look, posting a .306/.376/.475 line with a career-low 14.9% strikeout rate, but he spent virtually the entire second half on the injured list due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot.

Now healthy for Spring Training, Bryant will get a second crack at serving as Colorado’s primary left fielder. Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette writes that the four-time All-Star also remains open to logging some time on the infield if needed. Bryant played exclusively left field or designated hitter during his first season in Denver, though he obviously has plenty of corner infield experience from his time with the Cubs and Giants.

The Rox already have a decent amount of corner infield depth. C.J. Cron and Ryan McMahon are again lined up for work at first and third base, respectively. Michael Toglia and Sean Bouchard are on hand as first base options behind Cron. Offseason acquisition Nolan Jones and second-year player Elehuris Montero are bat-first players but can cover either corner infield slot. Alan Trejo and non-roster invitee Harold Castro are also in the mix as infield defenders with some flexibility to move around the diamond.

In other news out of Colorado:

  • Right-hander Jake Bird recently strained his left oblique, manager Bud Black informed reporters (including Thomas Harding of MLB.com). He’s expected to miss the next four to six weeks. That takes the 27-year-old out of play for the World Baseball Classic — where he’d been slated to represent Israel — and, of more import to Colorado fans, puts his availability for the start of the season in jeopardy. Bird made his major league debut last June and was a fairly frequent bullpen option down the stretch. He got into 38 contests, posting a 4.91 ERA across 47 2/3 innings. Bird’s strikeout and walk profile wasn’t especially impressive but he induced grounders on an excellent 55.7% of batted balls.
  • A pair of veteran bullpen pickups marked some of the biggest moves in a quiet Colorado offseason. Righty Pierce Johnson signed a one-year free agent deal, while the Rox claimed veteran southpaw Brent Suter off waivers from Milwaukee. Black told reporters he’d been among those pushing general manager Bill Schmidt to put in a claim once Milwaukee put Suter on waivers back in November (link via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). With the Harvard product eligible for arbitration for a final time, the Brewers waived Suter after determining they weren’t going to tender him a contract. Colorado was happy to keep Suter around for his last arbitration season, with the sides agreeing to a $3MM salary within two weeks of the waiver claim. The 33-year-old posted a 3.78 ERA over 66 2/3 innings of long relief last season. He doesn’t throw hard or pick up many whiffs, but he consistently keeps the ball on the ground and fills the strike zone. The latter trait seems especially appealing to Colorado brass, as Black told reporters the club is emphasizing better strike-throwing at the back end of games. Rockies relievers walked 9.9% of opponents last season, the fifth-highest rate in the league.

Red Sox, Tanner Houck Discussed Extension Last Year

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At some point last year, the Red Sox and right-hander Tanner Houck had some talks about an extension, though it doesn’t seem much progress was made. “Conversations, but nothing came of it,” Houck told Chris Cotillo of MassLive. “We’re pretty happy with where we’re at right now. There’s no reason to rush into anything.”

Houck, 27 in June, has pitched in the past three major league seasons, oscillating between the rotation and the bullpen but generally getting good results either way. Overall, he’s tossed 146 innings with a 3.02 ERA, striking out 27.6% of batters faced, walking 8.7% of them and getting grounders at a 49.3% clip. Getting into the splits, he has a 3.22 ERA as a starter and 2.68 as a reliever. He’s actually racked up more strikeouts out of the rotation, a 28.5% rate compared to a 25.9% rate out of the bullpen. But his .300 BABIP as a starter is a bit above his .274 mark as a reliever, and his 70.5% strand rate out of the rotation is a few ticks below his 77.3% mark from the ’pen.

In addition to that strong body of work, Houck also comes with the pedigree of being a first round pick, selected 24th overall in 2017. He is currently between one and two years of MLB service time, meaning he’s still shy of qualifying for arbitration and isn’t slated for free agency until after the 2027 season, when he’ll be 31. There would be some risk in committing significant dollars to Houck since he fought lingering back issues last year and ultimately required surgery, but all pitchers generally have some injury flags on their profiles and there’s usually a point at which clubs are willing to take the risk.

It’s unknown exactly what kind of contract structures were floated, but the talks didn’t advance enough for the Sox to put forth a formal offer. “We never really even got that far,” Houck said. “(It was) a conversation. We talked here and there.”

It’s possible that the Red Sox were looking at Houck the same way they viewed Garrett Whitlock. A Rule 5 pick of the Yankees, Whitlock made his MLB debut in 2021 with 73 1/3 innings out of the Boston bullpen with a 1.96 ERA. Going into 2022, there was some consideration of returning Whitlock to the rotation since he had spent much of his minor league time there. In April of last year, before the campaign really got going, the two sides agreed on an $18.75MM extension that covered his remaining years of control, while also potentially giving the Sox control over two free agent years via club options. If Whitlock eventually emerges as a viable rotation candidate, that will turn into a bargain for the club, given the salaries typically earned by free agent starters. But it was also understandable why Whitlock would want to lock in that guaranteed money, since he was a relative late bloomer, just about to turn 26 at that time.

Houck is in a relatively similar position, showing plenty of potential but still not fully established and with huge paydays still a few years away. It doesn’t seem as though the ship has sailed on an extension, with Houck expressing openness. “If the opportunity on both sides is right, I’d be willing to, but both sides have to feel comfortable with an agreement,” he said. “I think it really depends on the individual person,” he elaborated. “If you’re willing to bet on yourself and believe that you can sign that bigger contract, then take the shot, in my opinion, if you’re a betting man. If you’re not and you like the security, it’s perfectly fine. There’s nothing wrong with it either way, but as an individual, I think you have to be okay with it.”

For 2023, Houck seems to have a blocked path to the rotation for now, though there will be many variables. Chris Sale and James Paxton could be at the front of the rotation, though neither has pitched much in the past three years due to injury. Corey Kluber is coming off a healthy season with the Rays but had three injury-marred years prior to that. Nick Pivetta has been the most reliable of the bunch though his status is now a little murky as he’s dropping out of the World Baseball Classic, per Cotillo, as he recently had COVID for a third time and isn’t recovering as hoped. Then there’s Whitlock and his nine career starts and younger guys like Brayan Bello and Brandon Walter.

The club has said they plan to stretch Houck out this spring but perhaps move him into bullpen role if he doesn’t have a spot in the rotation by Opening Day. Given all the uncertainty in the rotation, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him get pencilled in as the starter at some point this year. “It’s not my decision. I’d love to start; that’s what I’ve done my whole career,” Houck recently told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. “But I’ve got to help the team win in whatever way possible.”

Brewers Notes: Taylor, Ashby, Adames

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Brewers outfielder Tyrone Taylor has a sprained elbow that will keep him out of action for the first two weeks of spring games, with Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relaying word from manager Craig Counsell. There is no structural damage and Taylor will just need rest, though this will delay his ramp-up to readiness for the big league season.

Taylor has had a decent run with Milwaukee over the past couple of years, hitting 29 home runs and stealing nine bases in 213 games. His batting line over that 2021-2022 stretch was .239/.300/.448 for a wRC+ of 104. He also drew positive grades for his outfield defense, playing all three spots but primarily in center, leading to 3.4 fWAR in that time.

There’s still about five weeks until Opening Day, perhaps giving Taylor time to recover, though it will depend on how his elbow heals. If he needs to miss a bit of time, the club has a mix of outfielders that could step up. Christian Yelich and Jesse Winker seem likely to share the left field and designated hitter slots, with Garrett Mitchell perhaps getting an extended run of play in center. Right field could still go to Taylor if healthy, though the club also has Blake Perkins on the 40-man roster, as well as infielder/outfielders Brian Anderson, Mike Brosseau and Keston Hiura. In terms of non-roster options, Tyler Naquin just came aboard on a minor league deal, and there’s also prospects like Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer.

Some other notes from Brewers camp…

  • Left-hander Aaron Ashby has been sidelined by a shoulder injury that Counsell said would keep him out of action for “a couple of months.” The pitcher himself addressed the media yesterday, including Rosiak, and discussed the issue in more detail. “It’s a shoulder impingement, labral tear,” Ashby said. “That sounds really bad but everyone has these; it’s just kind of how it affects you. And in my throwing motion, it doesn’t feel great. It’s a really small tear. Then it’s the rehab process and retraining that muscle and working the proper way.” As for the timeline, “My hope is kind of middle of May,” he said. Over the past two years, he’s thrown 139 innings with a 4.47 ERA but stronger underlying metrics. His 9.7% walk rate is a bit high, but his 27.1% strikeout rate and 57.8% ground ball rate were both strong, leading to better marks from ERA estimators like a 3.95 FIP and 3.41 SIERA. Even without Ashby, the club projects to have six strong rotation options in Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer, Wade Miley and Adrian Houser. Ashby will have to work his way into that mix once he’s healthy, though it’s possible someone else in that group needs some time off by then.
  • Shortstop Willy Adames has previously expressed his willingness to sign a long-term deal to stay with the Brewers, though he also noticed the big contracts that shortstops were able to secure this offseason. “When you see the guys, you know, getting paid, I mean, the group of guys that signed this offseason, they were elite guys and they set the bar for us, you know, the guys that are coming up,” he tells Rosiak. He goes on to say he’ll let his agency handle the business side of things while he focuses on baseball but adds that those other shortstops “really set the bar for the guys that are coming up.” Carlos Correa ultimately settled for a contract below expectations after he had two deals scuttled by concerns over his physical, but the other marquee shortstops did well for themselves this winter. Trea Turner got himself $300MM from the Phillies, Xander Bogaerts got $280MM from the Padres and Dansby Swanson secured $177MM from the Cubs. The 27-year-old Adames will make $8.7MM this year before a final arbitration season in 2024, after which he’s slated to hit the open market. His performance over those next two seasons will determine what kind of contract he could be looking at on the open market but he’s trending in a strong direction. He posted a career-high 4.7 fWAR last year in a season that included 31 home runs and strong grades for his glovework. Milwaukee fans would surely love to keep him around long-term but he seems well aware of the kind of contract that awaits him if he stays healthy and productive for a couple more years.

Yankees’ Ben Rortvedt, Frankie Montas Undergo Surgery

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Yankees catcher Ben Rortvedt and right-hander Frankie Montas both underwent surgery Wednesday, manager Aaron Boone announced to reporters (Twitter links via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Montas was already known to require arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder, and today’s procedure is now being classified as a cleanup of his labrum. His rotator cuff did not require repair. Montas will be cleared to resume throwing in approximately 12 weeks and could still return this season.

Rortvedt, meanwhile, has been bothered by a finger ailment that doctors had been unable to pinpoint in recent days. He met with a specialist yesterday. The operation addressed an aneurysm near the posterior in his left shoulder, which had impacted the circulation in his hand and finger. He’ll be shut down from all baseball activity for at least the next month.

The injury to Montas is an obvious blow for a Yankees club that hoped for a healthy Montas in 2023 — one that resembled his standout form with the Athletics more than the diminished version of Montas they saw following last summer’s trade. The right-hander had dealt with shoulder troubles shortly before the trade deadline, but the Yankees were clearly convinced that the issue was minor and that they’d be getting something close to the pitcher who’d posted a 3.30 ERA with strong strikeout and walk rates from Opening Day 2021 through the 2022 trade deadline.

Instead, the Yankees received eight rough outings from Montas down the stretch and will now be without him for the majority of the 2023 campaign, after which he’s slated to become a free agent. New York also picked up righty reliever Lou Trivino in that swap, and he delivered 21 2/3 innings of 1.94 ERA ball down the stretch. He’s controlled through the 2024 season, but the trade with the A’s will still feel rather steep, given that the Yankees sent prospects Ken Waldichuk, JP Sears, Luis Medina and Cooper Bowman to Oakland in return for Montas and Trivino. The Yankees reportedly do not plan to pursue a trade to replenish the pitching depth lost with Montas’ injury.

As for Rortvedt, he came over to the Yankees alongside Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the trade that sent Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez to the Twins last offseason. A former second-round pick who’s regarded  as a glove-first option behind the dish, the 25-year-old Rortvedt played in only 48 minor league games in 2022. He spent most of the season on the Major League injured list due to a severe oblique strain and was optioned upon activation. He spent six games in the low minors before heading to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, where he turned in a .221/.307/.396 batting line with six home runs and a 10.2% walk rate but also a troubling 32.2% strikeout rate in 177 plate appearances.

Rortvedt has appeared in 39 big league games, all with the Twins, and posted a .169/.229/.281 batting line with a 29.6% strikeout rate in 98 trips to the plate. He has a minor league option year remaining — which is crucial, given that Jose Trevino and Kyle Higashioka are lined up as the primary catchers to begin the season —  and can be controlled for at least five more years.

NL East Notes: Scherzer, Soroka, Song, Phillies

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Max Scherzer’s three-year deal with the Mets is now one-third of the way complete and will afford him the ability to opt out at the end of the upcoming season. Andy Martino of SNY asked Scherzer about that forthcoming choice and the pitcher was fairly noncommittal about it, complimenting the direction of the organization but also acknowledging the business aspect of things.

“You have to understand the context of why I negotiated that in, and the context of where we’re at now,” Scherzer said, before elaborating that he didn’t know what to expect from the club if Jacob deGrom triggered his own opt-out at the end of 2022. “It was, if Jake opts out, you didn’t know what was going to happen. You didn’t know where the Mets would be as an organization. A big draw for me to come to New York was to get the chance to pitch with him, and here he has an opt out in year one. If he did take it and go somewhere else, what is the organization going to do?” After a chuckle, he said, “I got an answer.” Of course, he now knows that owner Steve Cohen was willing to spend lavishly on free agents, ramping the club’s payroll to the top of the league in order to field a competitive team for 2023.

That response from Scherzer stands in contrast to that of deGrom, who was quite clear at this time last year that his plan was to trigger his opt-out. It’s been a similar story lately with Padres third baseman Manny Machado, who’s openly declared his intention to opt out of his deal this fall. The fact that Scherzer isn’t quite so emphatic is perhaps somewhat hopeful for Mets fans, but it could also come down to a business decision, something Scherzer acknowledged as well. “If it becomes a business situation, we will cross that bridge at a different time,” he added. “At the end of the year, that will get taken care of … I’m not thinking about it. Obviously, you go through six months of the baseball season, anything can change. So it’s not even worth it to comment on whether I’m going to use it or not.”

If Scherzer has another typical ace season, he would be facing an interesting decision from a business perspective. He will turn 39 years old in July and be deciding whether or not to leave $43.33MM on the table and become a free agent again. That’s a lot of money to turn down for a player that age, but his now-teammate Justin Verlander secured himself a two-year, $86.66MM guarantee going into his age-40 season, the same average annual value. With that in mind, Scherzer might actually leave more money on the table by not triggering his opt-out. If he were to decide to depart, the Mets would be losing two members of its current rotation, as Carlos Carrasco is in the final year of his contract.

Some other notes from around the National League East…

  • Braves right-hander Michael Soroka is dealing with a sore hamstring that will prevent him from taking the mound for about a week and from appearing in spring games for a few weeks. “It’s a kick in the groin,” Soroka said to David O’Brien of The Athletic about the setback. “Pretty frustrating, especially given the early offseason for me, just to be able to get ready for this spring training. Then coming down with that was not fun. But that’s how it goes, and we’ll be moving forward here pretty shortly.” Soroka has been significantly impeded by injuries in recent years, with his 2020 cut short after three starts due to a torn right Achilles. The recovery has been quite arduous, involving three surgeries as he missed the past two seasons entirely. This latest issue doesn’t seem to be huge, but it’s understandably frustrating that there’s yet another hurdle to clear. In 2019, Soroka made 29 starts with a 2.68 ERA over 174 2/3 innings. He figured to compete with Ian Anderson for the club’s fifth starter spot this year but he might have to play a bit of catch-up whenever he’s healthy. He does still have an option year remaining, should he need more time in the minors to get stretched out after this delay.
  • The Phillies informed reporters, including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer, that right-hander Noah Song has been discharged from the Navy and is expected to be in camp tomorrow. (EDIT: The club later clarified Song has not been discharged, but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves, which allows him to play baseball. Twitter link from Matt Gelb of The Athletic.) Song, 26 in May, was drafted by the Red Sox in 2019 but his baseball career was put on hold when the Department of Defense ordered the United States Naval Academy graduate to report to flight school. He was left unprotected in the most recent Rule 5 draft and was selected by the Phillies, whose president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was with the Red Sox at the time Song was first drafted. Some considered him a first-round talent back then, though he lingered until the fourth round due to concerns around that military commitment. This will now be an interesting and unusual experiment, as Song still hasn’t pitched professionally since a stint at Low-A in 2019. He was quite good at that time, posting a 1.06 ERA over seven starts but will now be jumping straight to the majors. As a Rule 5 draftee, he will have to stick on the active roster all season or put on waivers and then offered back to the Sox if he clears. The Phils could also pursue trades, though any acquiring team would face the same roster restrictions as the Phils themselves currently face. Song is currently on the military list and isn’t taking up a spot on the 40-man roster, with Gelb relaying that he will have to be added by Opening Day.
  • Sticking with the Phillies, they will be navigating an open designated hitter slot until Bryce Harper returns from Tommy John surgery. The most recent estimate on that timeline has Harper returning around the All-Star break in July, giving the club a span of over three months to navigate. It seems the plan is to not have any single player entrenched in the spot and spread those opportunities around. “At this point, I think it’s a rotation,” manager Rob Thomson tells Gelb. “Getting people off their feet. Giving them a half day, so to speak.” In order to shuffle different players through there, positional versatility will be key. It was previously reported that infielder Edmundo Sosa will be getting some work in center field in order to increase his chances of getting playing time. Thomson also highlighted Josh Harrison as someone who could also see extensive action, given his ability to play all multiple positions. He’s played every position except catcher in his career, though he’s spent more time at second and third base than anywhere else. Thomson also mentioned the bat of Darick Hall, who hit nine home runs in his first 42 major league games last year. He’s been almost exclusively a first baseman in his professional career but the club is considering getting him some outfield work to help his bat into the lineup. “If he swings the bat the way he did last year,” Thomson said, “it’s going to be tough to keep him off the club.”

Reds Claim Bennett Sousa

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The Reds announced Wednesday that they’ve claimed lefty Bennett Sousa off waivers from the White Sox. Chicago had designated him for assignment on Monday when finalizing their one-year deal with Elvis Andrus. Cincinnati placed right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez, who underwent Tommy John surgery last July, on the 60-day injured list to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.

The 27-year-old Sousa made his MLB debut with the Sox last year but was knocked around for 19 runs on 25 hits and 10 walks in 25 1/3 frames — an 8.31 ERA. Ugly as that showing was, he’s regularly turned in sub-4.00 ERAs in the upper minors while displaying above-average strikeout and ground-ball rates. Command issues have plagued him at times, however, and while Sousa looked to have turned a corner with a tiny 5.3% walk rate in 2021, he walked 10.3% of his opponent in a similar sample size of Triple-A innings this past season.

Overall, Sousa has a 3.96 ERA, a 32.2% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate in 50 Triple-A frames, in addition to a 2.96 ERA, 35.6% strikeout rate and 13.9% walk rate in 27 1/3 innings at the Double-A level. Sousa has a pair of minor league option years remaining and averaged a solid 94.3 mph on his heater in the big leagues last year. Paired with his 11.7% swinging-strike rate (and history of missing bats in the minors) there could be improvement on the horizon for the unsightly 12.5% strikeout rate he posted in the Majors last year.

Sousa joins Reiver Sanmartin as a lefty option for manager David Bell’s bullpen. That’s the only pair of southpaw options on the 40-man roster — outside of prospect Brandon Williamson, who’ll surely continue to be utilized as a starter — but Sousa will have competition in camp in the form of non-roster invitees like Daniel Norris and Alex Young.

White Sox Sign Bryan Shaw To Minor League Deal

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The White Sox have signed veteran reliever Bryan Shaw to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training, the team announced. The CAA client will vie for a spot in Chicago’s bullpen over the next several weeks.

Shaw, 35, has spent the bulk of his career — including the past two seasons — in Cleveland. He struggled to a 5.40 ERA in 58 1/3 innings with the Guardians in 2022, thanks to one of the lowest strand rates of his career (66.3%) and one of the highest home-run rates he’s ever yielded (1.39 HR/9, 15.5% homer-to-flyball ratio).

Shaw was one of the most consistent and most durable relievers in the game from 2013-17, thrice leading the American League in appearances and twice leading all of MLB in that category. In that span, he tossed 358 2/3 innings of 3.11 ERA ball, which set the stage for a three-year, $27MM deal in Colorado that almost immediately proved regrettable for the Rockies. Shaw was tagged for a 5.61 ERA in two seasons with Colorado before being released and struggling with the Mariners the following season.

While things have gone poorly for Shaw dating back to 2018 — 5.23 ERA, 268 1/3 innings — his 2021 season offered a glimpse of his vintage form. He’s only one year removed from 77 1/3 frames of 3.49 ERA ball in his first of two seasons back in Cleveland. Even as he’s struggled, Shaw has maintained solid velocity (94.6 mph average four-seamer over the past couple seasons) and above-average ground-ball tendencies.

Shaw will give the ChiSox a durable veteran arm who can potentially be stashed in he upper minors, and if he’s able to round into 2021 form, he can help the Sox to weather the absences of Garrett Crochet (April 2022 Tommy John surgery) and Liam Hendriks (undergoing treatment for non-Hodgkins lymphoma). As things currently stand, Chicago’s primary late-inning relievers include Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Aaron Bummer, Reynaldo Lopez and Jake Diekman.

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