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Brent Suter

Looking Ahead To Club Options: NL Central

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MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the NL Central. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West

Chicago Cubs

  • Shota Imanaga, LHP (team has three-year, $57MM option covering 2026-28; if they decline, Imanaga has $15MM player option for 2026)

Imanaga signed a somewhat complex four-year, $53MM deal when he made the jump from NPB during the 2023-24 offseason. Next winter, the Cubs need to decide whether to trigger a three-year, $57MM option for the 2026-28 seasons. That’d come with respective salaries of $20MM, $20MM and $17MM. If the Cubs decline their end, Imanaga would be able to decline a $15MM player option for ’26 and test free agency.

It’d almost certainly take an injury for that to happen. Concerns about how Imanaga’s stuff might translate against MLB competition proved unfounded. The southpaw finished fifth in NL Cy Young balloting during his first major league season. He turned in a 2.91 earned run average across 173 1/3 innings, striking out a quarter of opponents against a 4% walk rate. The punchouts haven’t been there through this year’s first five starts, but he takes a 2.22 ERA into tonight’s appearance against the Dodgers. He’s getting whiffs on an excellent 14% of his pitches, so he’ll likely finish off a few more strikeouts moving forward. Imanaga’s deal looks like a bargain, and the Cubs should happily sign up for another three seasons at a $19MM average annual value unless he suffers an injury.

  • Colin Rea, RHP ($6MM club option, $750K buyout)

Rea reunited with Craig Counsell in Chicago after the Brewers declined his $5.5MM club option. It actually worked out slightly to his financial benefit. The righty collected a $1MM buyout from Milwaukee and secured a $5MM guarantee with the Cubs. He’s playing this year on a $4.25MM salary and will make at least a $750K buyout on next year’s club option. That’s valued at $6MM, so it’ll be a $5.25MM decision.

The Cubs had Rea work in long relief to begin the season. He has stepped into the rotation since the Justin Steele injury. The 34-year-old righty is out to a strong start, allowing two runs through his first 13 2/3 innings. He has punched out 12 while only allowing one walk in 56 plate appearances. Rea had held a rotation role in Milwaukee for most of last year, posting a 4.29 ERA through a career-high 167 2/3 innings. As a mid-30s swingman with league average whiff rates, he’s never going to break the bank, but the option price is reasonable for a capable #5/6 starter.

Turner’s option is mostly an accounting measure designed to push back $2MM of his $6MM free agent guarantee by a few months. Option buyouts are paid at year’s end, while the money would have been evenly distributed throughout the season had it simply been a $6MM salary. It’s unlikely that the Cubs would want to sign up for a $10MM salary covering Turner’s age-41 campaign even if he repeats his solid 2024 production.

The 17-year big league veteran has posted 11 consecutive above-average offensive seasons since his 2014 breakout with the Dodgers. His power numbers have declined with age, but he put up a strong .354 on-base percentage in 139 games between the Blue Jays and Mariners a year ago. Turner’s start on the North Side hasn’t been good. He’s hitting .147 without an extra-base hit over 14 games. He’s taken six walks against nine strikeouts but will obviously need to make more of a slugging impact.

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati took a buy-low flier on Barlow, a former closer who was released by the Guardians shortly before the playoffs. The righty had fallen quickly down the depth chart in Cleveland. He carried a 3.52 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate into the All-Star Break. Barlow allowed a near-6.00 ERA while striking out just 19% of batters faced in the second half. A fastball that typically sat around 93 MPH had dropped to the 90-91 range.

The early tenure in Cincinnati has been mixed. Barlow has gotten his velocity back, averaging 93 on both his four-seam and sinker. He’s getting whiffs on a huge 15.3% of his offerings, nearly two percentage points above last year’s level. The stuff is certainly more encouraging, but the results haven’t followed. He has a pedestrian 9:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing five runs on eight hits through 9 1/3 innings. He was limited to a $2.5MM guarantee last offseason. He’ll need a more convincing rebound for Cincinnati to retain him on what amounts to a $5.5MM call.

Hays signed for $5MM after being non-tendered by the Phillies. The righty-hitting outfielder has been a capable regular for most of his career, but his production dipped last season while he battled a grueling kidney infection. A Spring Training calf injury delayed his team debut until last week. Hays has been on tear since his return, connecting on three homers while hitting .406 in 34 plate appearances. He has a hit in all seven games, including three straight multi-hit performances against his old teammates in Baltimore over the weekend.

Suter, who grew up in Cincinnati, joined the Reds on a $3MM deal during the 2023-24 offseason. He posted a 3.15 ERA through 65 2/3 innings and signed a $2.25MM extension at the start of last winter. The 35-year-old southpaw is out to a customary start. He has managed 9 2/3 frames of three-run ball despite striking out just four of 38 opponents. Suter’s stuff is never going to jump off the page — he’s sitting in his typical 85-88 MPH range with his fastballs — but he avoids hard contact and is aiming for his seventh straight sub-4.00 ERA showing. Assuming he continues on his usual pace, the Reds should want him back on a $2.75MM decision.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee made a big investment by their standards in signing Hoskins to a two-year, $34MM contract during the 2023-24 offseason. The longtime Phillies first baseman had missed his walk year after suffering an ACL tear during Spring Training. The Brewers expected Hoskins to recapture his consistently above-average offensive form after a healthy offseason.

That didn’t happen in year one, as he hit a career-worst .214/.303/.419 across 517 plate appearances. Hoskins still managed 26 homers, but the overall offense was essentially league average. It wasn’t attributable to lingering knee discomfort. Hoskins did his best work early in the season, carrying an .813 OPS through the end of May. He hit .203/.285/.395 over the season’s final four months and bypassed an opt-out opportunity.

Hoskins has gotten out to another strong start this year. He’s batting .270 with a trio of homers and what would be a career-low 20% strikeout rate over his first 75 trips to the plate.

Milwaukee signed Peralta to a $20MM extension just before Spring Training 2020. He was mostly unproven at the time, but it only took one more season before he developed into a top-of-the-rotation starter. This quickly became one of the more team-friendly contracts in baseball. The deal included respective $8MM club options for 2025 and ’26, which would have been Peralta’s first two free agent years had he gone through arbitration.

The 28-year-old righty has been the clear staff ace since Milwaukee traded Corbin Burnes. He posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the five guaranteed seasons of the contract. Peralta has rattled off another 28 1/3 frames of 1.91 ERA ball through his first five starts this year. Unless he suffers a significant injury that’d threaten his availability for next season, the Brewers are going to rubber-stamp the option.

Quintana signed late on a $4.25MM pillow contract after finding a weaker market than he expected. The net present value was actually just under $4MM, as Quintana agreed to defer the $2MM buyout on his ’26 mutual option. The Brewers aren’t going to exercise their end of the $15MM option for what would be the veteran lefty’s age-37 season. It looks like they got great value on the one-year deal, though, as Quintana is coming off a 3.75 ERA showing for the Mets. The late signing delayed his team debut, but he has fired 12 1/3 innings of one-run ball over his first two starts.

Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late in the 2023 season. The Brewers re-signed him to a backloaded two-year deal with a $17.5MM guarantee. They knew he’d spend all of ’24 rehabbing. They’ve taken his progression carefully and didn’t push him during Spring Training. Woodruff began a minor league rehab stint on April 12. He has made a pair of rehab starts and could be back with the big league team in the next couple weeks.

Note: William Contreras’ arbitration contract contains a $12MM team option for next season. He’s excluded from this list because he’d remain under arbitration control if Milwaukee declines the option, as they did with Devin Williams last offseason.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • None

St. Louis Cardinals

  • None

Players Linked To Union Discord Replaced In MLBPA Subcommittee Vote

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Back in March, disagreements within the Major League Baseball Players Association led to a battle for power within the union that was often framed as a mutiny or a coup. At that time, three active players were connected to the overthrow attempt: Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito and Ian Happ. Those three were on the MLBPA eight-player executive subcommittee but none of those three remain after recent voting, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic.

MLBTR readers who want a full refresher on the situation can check out these posts from March. The 2023-2024 offseason was miserable for players, as various teams dialed back spending, often citing declining TV revenue as the reason. Several players signed contracts that were far below initial expectations, most prominently the “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bellinger.

On the heels of that winter, frustration boiled up within the players and they eventually appeared to be split into two camps. One camp attempted to replace deputy director Bruce Meyer with Harry Marino, and it was suggested by some that executive director Tony Clark also would have been ousted in the event Meyer was replaced. Ultimately, those efforts stalled out and the Clark/Meyer duo stayed atop the union’s leadership structure.

Marino had previously been the head of Advocates For Minor Leaguers, the group that unionized minor league players. The minor leaguers were placed under the MLBPA umbrella, with Marino and Meyer then negotiating with MLB the first ever collective bargaining agreement for minor league players. Minor leaguers received 34 of the 72 seats on the MLBPA executive board, but Marino and Meyer reportedly did not get along, with Marino leaving the union at some point.

Though Marino was out of the union, it seems he was well liked enough in some circles that this attempt was made to install him into a very prominent position. Despite the frustrating winter for players, Meyer had made some notable gains for players in the 2022 CBA, his first in this role. The competitive balance tax tiers all went up, though a fourth tier was added. The minimum salaries were also raised in notable fashion, and a bonus pool for pre-arbitration players was created, among other advancements for players.

Regardless, the frustration was real and significant enough to threaten Meyer and perhaps Clark in the leadership structure, though they ultimately survived. Back in March, Flaherty seemed to express regret about the way things played out, though he also seemed surprised by the way Marino proceeded.

“There was one phone call that went on that I put Tony in a bad position in, where Harry tried to push his way through,” Flaherty told Ken Rosenthal at the time. “He tried to pressure Tony, and Tony stood strong, said this is not going to happen. Tony has done nothing but stand strong in all of this. That was something I would love to take back. I never wanted Harry to be in Bruce’s position.” Flaherty repeated that he was not trying to replace Meyer. “I said he’s not somebody to replace Bruce, but if you guys want to listen to him, we can continue this conversation. Things got way out of hand after that.” Flaherty then went on to compliment Meyer for the job he had done with the recent CBA.

The MLBPA votes on those subcommittee spots every two years. The union announced this week a new subcommittee consisting of Chris Bassitt, Jake Cronenworth, Pete Fairbanks, Cedric Mullins, Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Marcus Semien and Brent Suter. Semien and Suter are the lone holdovers from the previous subcommittee.

As noted by Drellich, the subcommittee is significant because key matters are often settled with a 38-person vote. Each of the 30 teams have a representative with one vote, and the eight subcommittee members get the remaining eight votes. Those 30 team reps vote on the eight subcommittee members. The eight players selected this week will have their positions for the next two years, which aligns with the end of the current CBA, as that agreement goes until Dec. 2, 2026.

All relations between MLB and the MLBPA have appeared to be contentious in recent years, from CBA negotiations to the COVID-related shutdown to on-field rule changes. The most recent CBA involved a lockout of more than three months and came perilously close to canceling games. On the other hand, the two sides agreed in the middle of the 2024 campaign to redirect some CBT money towards teams that had lost broadcast revenue, a fairly rare instance of a notable financial decision made outside normal CBA talks.

With another round of collective bargaining due two years from now, the possibility of another lockout is also on the horizon. The league and the union will have plenty to work out, including the ongoing broadcast uncertainty, the international draft and other big-picture issues along with the typical bargaining topics like salaries, taxes and revenue sharing. As such, the developments within the union will have notable ramifications for the baseball world.

Nick Martinez Declines Player Option; Brent Suter Re-Signs New Deal With Reds

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The Reds announced their full slate of option decisions for the 2025 season this afternoon. Right-hander Nick Martinez turned down his $12MM player option for next season. The Reds held a $3.5MM club option on lefty reliever and Cincinnati native Brent Suter, but rather than exercising it they’ve signed him to a new one-year contract with a club option for the 2026 season. He’ll be guaranteed $2.25MM and the option is worth $3MM, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that the Reds first paid the $500K buyout on Suter’s $3.5MM option for the upcoming season before re-signing him to the new terms.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati declined a $3.5MM option on catcher Luke Maile in favor of a $500K buyout, while right-hander Jakob Junis declined his end of an $8MM mutual option. He’ll be paid a $3MM buyout. Each of Martinez, Maile and Junis are now free agents.

Martinez, now 34, has shown a strong willingness to bet on himself when it comes to contracts. After pitching in Japan from 2018 to 2021, he has returned to North America and continually signed deals with opt-outs that he has triggered.

Going into 2022, he signed a four-year, $25.5MM deal with the Padres with the ability to opt-out after each season. He eventually triggered his first opt-out and re-signed with the Friars for 2023, a $26MM guarantee over three years with a convoluted club/player option structure. After the 2023 season, the Padres turned down a two-year, $32MM club option and then Martinez turned down his two-year, $16MM player option. He then signed a two-year, $26MM deal with the Reds that again allowed him to opt out after one season.

With the Padres before and with the Reds in 2024, Martinez oscillated between the rotation and bullpen. He got into 42 games this year, including 16 starts, tossing 142 1/3 innings with a 3.10 earned run average. His 20.4% strikeout rate was a bit below average but his 3.2% walk rate was elite. Among pitchers with at least 140 innings pitched this year, only George Kirby gave out free passes at a lower rate.

Both with the Padres and Reds, his results have been better out of the bullpen. This year, he had a 3.84 ERA as a starter but a 1.86 mark as a reliever. Whether he’ll be viewed as a reliever or starter will likely differ from club to club, but he should be able to top $12MM on the open market, making his decision to opt out a logical one.

Now the Reds will be able to issue him a qualifying offer and it has been suggested in some circles that they will consider it. Though Martinez is a solid contributor, it would be a bit of a surprise to see him offered a $21.05MM QO.

None of his previous contracts have had an average annual value higher than $13MM, so he would likely accept such an offer. The Reds have generally had payrolls just a bit above $100MM in most recent years, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, so Martinez accepting the QO would take up something approaching a fifth of their payroll. That’s a lot of money to commit to a swingman.

Suter, 35, has been a steady performer in the big leagues for close to a decade now. Debuting back in 2016, he now has a 3.45 ERA in over 500 career innings. He signed with the Reds in the offseason and gave them 65 2/3 innings with a 3.15 ERA. His strikeout rate wasn’t great but he demonstrated excellent control and his usual propensity for limiting damage. His average exit velocity and hard hit rate were both in the 96th percentile, according to Statcast.

His previous deal came with a $2.5MM salary for 2024 and a $500K buyout on a $3.5MM club option for 2025. As mentioned, the Reds gave him that buyout and worked out a new salary for the upcoming season, also securing a club option for ’26.

Maile doesn’t hit much but has a strong reputation as a defender and game-caller. That continued to be the case this year, as he slashed .178/.268/.252 but with solid work behind the plate.

The Reds are moving on today but could perhaps circle back to Maile at a lower price point. Tyler Stephenson is the only backstop on the 40-man roster now, so they will need to find a backup, whether that’s Maile or someone else.

Junis, 32, has generally had solid results in his career. However, his 2024 was largely held back by injury. He signed with the Brewers in the winter, a $7MM guarantee broken up into a $4MM salary and a $3MM option.

He went on the injured list early in the year due to a right shoulder impingement. His return from that injury was delayed when he was struck by a batted ball during BP. He eventually tossed 67 innings on the year with a 2.69 ERA, getting flipped from the Brewers to the Reds as part of the deadline deal that sent Frankie Montas to Milwaukee.

Going back to the start of 2021, Junis has thrown 304 1/3 innings with a 3.99 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate and should be able to secure himself a solid deal in free agency.

Reds Activate Brandon Williamson From 60-Day IL

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The Reds announced a series of roster moves this morning that saw them activate left-handers Brandon Williamson and Brent Suter as well as outfielder Jake Fraley from the injured list. Right-hander David Buchanan was designated for assignment to make room for Williamson, who had been on the 60-day IL, on both the 40-man and active rosters. No corresponding moves were necessary to return Fraley and Suter, who were on the 10- and 15-day ILs respectively and will take the extra roster spots created by today’s expansion from 26 to 28 roster spots.

Williamson, 26, has missed the entire season to this point due to a shoulder strain he suffered back in March. The lefty was at risk of requiring season-ending surgery back in June but opted against going under the knife in hopes of rehabbing the issue. That plan has clearly worked out fairly well, as the lefty is now back on a big league mound for the first time in nearly a full calendar year. The southpaw enjoyed a solid if unspectacular rookie season with the Reds last year with a 4.46 ERA and 4.63 FIP to go along with a 20% strikeout rate in 117 innings that came together to give him the look of a solid back-of-the-rotation starting option.

Once a top-100 prospect, Williamson was acquired alongside Fraley as part of the package that sent Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to the Mariners prior to the 2022 season. Long looked at as a likely middle- to back-of-the-rotation arm, Williamson has turned heads during his rehab process in the minor leagues this year with a microscopic 0.55 ERA in five rehab starts this year. That excellent production is backed up by an increase in strikeout rate, as Williamson has punched out 25.4% of batters faced while rehabbing this year. If the young lefty really has managed to not only return healthy but shows signs of having taken a step forward at the big league level down the stretch this year, that’ll be an exciting turn of events for the Reds as they look ahead to 2025 with Williamson, Nick Lodolo, and Rhett Lowder all in the conversation for starts behind Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott.

Making room for Williamson on the 40-man roster is Buchanan, who was added to the club’s roster just yesterday. The 35-year-old journeyman posted 3 1/3 innings of one-run ball in yesterday’s game against the Brewers in what was his first big league work in nearly a decade. The righty last pitched in the majors for the Phillies back in 2015, when he struggled to a 6.99 ERA in 15 starts on the heels of what was a promising rookie campaign in 2014. Since then, Buchanan has spent the majority of his career pitching overseas in Japan and Korea, with a combined 3.50 ERA in 1169 2/3 overseas innings of work.

As for Fraley and Suter, the pair return from the injured list for the stretch run in hopes of proving themselves healthy and effective headed into next season. Fraley, 29, has struggled this year when healthy with a lackluster slash line of just .271/.323/.366 in 92 games. Suter, meanwhile, sports a 3.68 ERA and 4.30 FIP in 51 1/3 innings of work so far this year. The Reds hold a $3.5MM club option of Suter’s services for next season, while Fraley will be eligible for arbitration for the second time in his career over the offseason.

Reds Notes: Suter, Friedl, Kiermaier

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The Reds announced earlier today that they’ve placed left-hander Brent Suter on the 15-day IL due to a partial tear of his left teres major muscle. As noted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the club had at least some concern that the injury would prove serious enough that Suter would be out for the remainder of the 2024 campaign. Fortunately, Suter himself told reporters (including those at Bally Sports Cincinnati) that his current timeline is not quite that bleak. The lefty’s expected shutdown time is between four and six weeks, though he’ll of course have to build back up to game-ready form after that.

While that timeline leaves the door open for Suter to return sometime in September, the news is nonetheless a major blow to the Reds’ relief corps. The bullpen has been a major strength for Cincinnati this year, as the club’s 3.44 collective bullpen ERA is the sixth-best figure in the majors while their 3.65 FIP ranks seventh. Suter has been a huge part of that success as the 34-year-old has posted a solid 3.68 ERA in a whopping 51 1/3 innings of work this year. That means Suter has accounted for just under 15% of the total innings thrown by the Reds bullpen this year, an innings total that leads the team.

With both Suter and right-hander Carson Spiers having recently hit the IL in Cincinnati, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the club pursue bullpen reinforcements in the coming weeks. Reds brass indicated earlier this month they had not yet committed to a strategy for the trade deadline this year, though it’s worth noting that the club did swing a trade for outfielder Austin Slater just days after those comments, suggesting an openness to adding to the big league roster on at least some level. A look at MLBTR’s Top 50 Trade Candidates For The 2024 MLB Trade Deadline reveals a number of interesting relief arms available, ranging from star A’s rookie Mason Miller to White Sox reclamation project Michael Kopech.

The Slater deal isn’t the only indication that the Reds could be looking to add this summer. According to Wittenmyer, the club “touched base” regarding Blue Jays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier when the club put him on waivers earlier this month, though of course no deal has come together to this point. Kiermaier would offer the Reds a quality defensive center fielder who could act as a lefty platoon option for right-handed bats Slater and Stuart Fairchild, although it’s worth noting that Kiermaier has struggled badly (53 wRC+) at the plate this year. A stronger offensive fit Wittenmyer suggests for the Reds would be Nationals outfielder Lane Thomas, though he cautions that such a fit would depend on the price of acquiring 28-year-old.

While the Reds’ dearth of quality options in the outfield makes it an easily identifiable place where the club could improve its stock this summer, they may be on the verge of adding impact to the outfield mix internally. According to MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, center fielder TJ Friedl is slated to head out for a minor league rehab assignment tomorrow with the hope of returning to the lineup in Cincinnati for this weekend’s series against the Rays. Friedl has been limited to just 26 games by injuries this year but is only one season removed from a 4-win campaign in 2023 where he posted a strong 116 wRC+ while slugging 18 home runs, stealing 27 bases, and playing strong defense in center across 138 games. That 20/30 potential in center field is tantalizing, and it’s easy to see how Friedl could help to transform the club’s outfield mix if he’s finally healthy after dealing with a fractured wrist and a hamstring strain this year.

Quick Hits: Twins, Pohlad, Turner, Suter, Rockies, Marlins

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With David Rubenstein’s ownership group set to buy the Orioles, there have been some inevitable questions about which MLB team might be the next to be put onto the market.  The Twins can be firmly removed from that discussion, as Joe Pohlad told Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that “we are not considering [selling].  We are in it for the long term.”

Carl Pohlad bought the Twins in 1984, and Joe (Carl’s grandson) is now the third generation of the family to oversee the team’s day-to-day operations.  “This is something that brings our family together, something we enjoy being a part of. We love getting together at the ballpark,” Joe Pohlad said.  “And not only is it a family asset, it’s a community asset.  We take that seriously, being part of the community and stewards of the team.”  The younger Pohlad’s first year overseeing the Twins was a notable one, as Minnesota won the AL Central and then won their first playoff series since 2022 before bowing out in the ALDS.

As we say hey to a baseball legend on Willie Mays Day, here are some more items from around the league

  • “The Blue Jays were one of the first teams that reached out” once free agency began, Justin Turner told the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham and other reporters, and this aggression paid off when Turner and the Jays agreed to a one-year, $13MM deal earlier this week.  The veteran infielder is excited to be joining his new club, though also expressed some bittersweet feelings about leaving the Red Sox after a successful first season in Boston.  He opted out of the second year of his two-year deal but said that “right when the season ended, I assumed that it would be a no-brainer, that I would try to work something out and come back.”  However, Turner feels the changeover in Boston’s front office might’ve delayed the process, and “as time went on, it was appearing to be less and less likely” that a return to the Sox was in the cards.
  • Brent Suter was one of the few pitching bright spots for the Rockies last season, so it isn’t surprising that GM Bill Schmidt told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that the team “had a lot of discussions with Suter’s agent prior and after he became a free agent.”  No deal was reached, however, and Suter ended signing with his hometown Reds for a one-year, $3MM contract.
  • The Marlins have hired Sam Mondry-Cohen as the team’s new VP of player personnel, according to the Miami Herald’s Craig Mish (X link).  Mondry-Cohen is best known for his long stint in the Nationals organization, as he rose from an internship in 2009 to an assistant general manager role at the time of his departure at the end of the 2021 season.  Acting as the club’s director of research and development, Mondry-Cohen is credited with more or less building Washington’s analytics division from scratch, with the 2019 World Series title acting as the crown jewel of an overall very successful decade for the organization.  Mondry-Cohen consulted for the Phillies in 2022, worked in the White Sox baseball operations department last season, and he’ll now take on an important new set of responsibilities under new Miami president of baseball ops Peter Bendix.

Cubs Notes: Suter, Imanaga, Shaw

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The Cubs were among several teams with interest in left-hander Brent Suter prior to his decision to sign in Cincinnati on a one-year deal earlier this week, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Wittenmyer adds that Chicago remained interested in Suter’s services “down to the end” of his time as a free agent.

That the Cubs would have interest in Suter is hardly a surprise. The 34-year-old was among the lefty relievers the club was reportedly interested in prior to last summer’s trade deadline, and the club has found itself connected to the relief market frequently with this winter, with Ryan Braiser and Robert Stephenson among the names rumored as potential Cubs targets. Suter also spent seven seasons in Milwaukee under new Cubs manager Craig Counsell prior to joining the Rockies prior to the 2023 campaign.

The relief market has seen the likes of Andrew Chafin, Will Smith and Chris Stratton sign over the past month in addition to Chafin, with right-hander Jordan Hicks also recently coming off the board after signing with the Giants as a starting pitcher. Even so, the Cubs nonetheless figure to have plenty of options available to them as they search to upgrade their bullpen this winter. In addition to Stephenson and Brasier, the likes of left-hander Matt Moore and right-hander David Robertson could provide some veteran stability to the late innings for Chicago, where they currently project to utilize Adbert Alzolay and Julian Merryweather.

More from the north side of Chicago…

  • The Cubs made their first big move of the offseason last week by landing left-hander Shota Imanaga on a four-year, $53MM deal. While Imanaga was posted for MLB teams to sign less than two months ago, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times recently detailed the club’s efforts to land the southpaw, which date back to the club beginning to scout the southpaw back in 2018, the third season of Imanaga’s career in Nippon Professional Baseball. Lee notes that Imanaga caught Chicago’s attention in a more significant way during the World Baseball Softball Confederation’s 2019 Premiere12 tournament, the same tournament where they first identified outfielder Seiya Suzuki as a possible future target. That lengthy time spent scouting the duo has paid off as Imanaga figures to slot behind Justin Steele in the middle of the club’s rotation this year, while Suzuki slashed an impressive .285/.357/.485 in 138 games as the club’s everyday right fielder in the second year of his five-year pact with the Cubs last year.
  • Chicago’s first-round pick in the 2023 draft, shortstop Matt Shaw, made a big first impression during his first professional campaign with a .357/.400/.618 slash line in 170 trips to the plate across three levels last summer, including a stop at Double-A where he slashed a strong .292/.329/.523 in 15 games. With that performance, the 22-year-old has put himself on the radar for a possible big league debut at some point during the 2024 campaign. Gold glove fielders Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson are locked into the middle infielder positions at Wrigley, however, and that’s led Shaw to explore new defensive positions this winter. Shaw himself told Ryan Herrera of CHGO Sports at this weekend’s Cubs Convention that “probably 99%” of his defensive reps this winter have come at third base. Prospect evaluators questioned Shaw’s arm strength when he was selected last summer, making the hot corner an unusual fit for the youngster. On the other hand, the Cubs found success in moving Nick Madrigal to third base last year despite similar questions about arm strength with Madrigal posting +10 Outs Above Average at the position in 2023.

Reds Designate Daniel Duarte For Assignment

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The Reds announced that right-hander Daniel Duarte has been designated for assignment.  The move creates a 40-man roster spot for Brent Suter, whose one-year deal with Cincinnati is now official.

Duarte spent most of the 2022 season battling elbow problems, but he still managed to make his big league debut by tossing 2 2/3 innings over three appearances with the Reds that year.  With better health this past season, Duarte split the year between the big leagues (31 2/3 innings) and Triple-A Louisville (35 innings) before going on the Major League injured list in late September due to shoulder tightness.

The results were good on the whole for Duarte in 2023, as he had a 3.34 ERA in the minors and a 3.69 ERA during his time in Cincinnati.  However, control has been an issue for the righty over the last seasons, as he had an 11.3% walk rate at Lousiville and then a 14.7% walk rate in the big leagues.  Duarte had a respectable 25.8% strikeout rate in the minors but struck out only 16.9% of Major League batters, and he had almost as many walks (20) as strikeouts (23).

Over three years with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate, Duarte had a 4.05 ERA, 26.76% strikeout rate, and a 11.61% walk rate.  While respectable numbers, they also didn’t stand out to the extent that the Reds felt compelled to keep Duarte on their 40-man, and he now might be a candidate to be claimed by another team looking for bullpen depth.  If he clears waivers, Cincinnati might opt to keep Duarte on hand as a relief option who can be frequently shuttled up and down from the minors as circumstances warrant.

Reds To Sign Brent Suter

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The Reds are in agreement with left-hander Brent Suter on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. It’s a $3MM guarantee that takes the form of a $2.5MM salary in 2024 and a $500K buyout on a $3.5MM club option for ’25. The deal is still pending a physical for the Diamond Sports Management client. Cincinnati will need to make a corresponding move to clear a spot on the 40-man roster once the contract is finalized.

It’s the latest move in a pitching-heavy offseason. The Reds have added Frankie Montas to the rotation and Emilio Pagán to the late innings. Swingman Nick Martinez could contribute in either role. Suter seems ticketed for the bullpen, although he reportedly drew some interest as a starting pitcher this winter.

The 34-year-old has spent the past half-decade in relief. Suter saw some work out of the rotation early in his career with the Brewers. Despite finding a decent amount of success, he was pushed to the bullpen by 2019 as Milwaukee graduated pitchers with higher caliber stuff.

While Suter isn’t a prototypical power reliever, he has been a valuable bullpen piece. The Harvard product has turned in a sub-4.00 ERA in five straight seasons. Suter’s profile has been built around strong control and excellent contact suppression. He has posted better than average ground-ball rates over the past five seasons and is consistently one of the game’s toughest pitchers to square up.

Opponents have averaged between 84-86 MPH in exit velocity in each of the last four seasons, per Statcast. That ranked in the 95th percentile or better in all four years. Batters made hard contact (an exit velocity at or above 95 MPH) on only 26.3% of their batted balls a season ago. Among qualified pitchers, only Phil Maton, Tom Cosgrove and Tanner Scott did a better job avoiding authoritative contact.

The ability to stay off barrels allowed Suter to overcome hitter-friendly home environments. He turned in strong results in Milwaukee and had no issues acclimating to Colorado’s Coors Field after a waiver claim last offseason. In 69 1/3 innings, he turned in a 3.38 ERA for the Rockies, including a 3.66 mark in 32 frames in Denver. A track record of success in difficult home parks is surely appealing to a front office building a pitching staff in Great American Ball Park.

Nevertheless, teams generally harbor skepticism about a pitcher who succeeds on guile and command without overpowering pure stuff. Suter’s only season with an above-average strikeout rate came during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. Last year, he punched out just 18.8% of opponents while sitting in the mid-upper 80s with his sinker and four-seam fastball.

Suter’s age and lack of velocity was always likely to limit his market. It’s still somewhat surprising that he landed a $3MM guarantee. Next year’s salary is a half million dollars below the $3MM he made last year, his final arbitration season. Suter grew up in Cincinnati and attended high school there, so it seems fair to presume that geography played a role in his decision — particularly if his camp was sorting through a number of low-cost, one-year offers.

He joins Sam Moll and Alex Young as left-handed relief options for skipper David Bell. The Reds have Alexis Díaz in the ninth inning and brought back Buck Farmer to join Pagán and Lucas Sims as right-handed setup candidates. Ian Gibaut, who is out of options, could compete with Fernando Cruz and Tejay Antone for the final spot or two in the middle innings.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets Still Exploring Bullpen Market

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Jan. 10: SNY’s Andy Martino indicates that the Mets are planning to spend in the vicinity of another $10MM on the 2024 payroll, with the bullpen indeed standing as the top priority. That’d very likely leave room for acquisitions along the lines of Suter, Peralta, Brebbia or other middle-tier relievers in free agency but figures to take the Mets out of the running for Hader and any of the top-tier bats left on the market.

Jan 9: The Mets have signed three relievers to major league contracts this offseason — Jorge Lopez, Michael Tonkin, Austin Adams — but perhaps aren’t yet done adding to the relief corps. Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that while the Mets are highly unlikely to play at the top of the relief market (i.e. Josh Hader), they’re active in the lower tiers, with a preference for a left-handed arm. Brent Suter and Wandy Peralta are among the potential targets, and Sherman suggests that righty John Brebbia could be of interest to the Mets as well.

Suter, 34, has drawn some interest as a starting pitcher this winter but would presumably slot into the bullpen role for the Mets, whose president of baseball operations, David Stearns, knows the lefty quite well from the pair’s days together in Milwaukee (2016-22). Suter spent the 2023 season with the Rockies and showed no ill effects even moving to Coors Field; he logged a 3.38 ERA with an 18.8% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate, 46.5% grounder rate and his characteristic brand of weak contact. Suter’s 84 mph average exit velocity, 26.3% hard-hit rate and 3.3% barrel rate all ranked in the 97th percentile or better among MLB pitchers.

While Suter has never been a huge strikeout arm, his nearly-impossible-to-barrel repertoire has long made him a successful big leaguer. He touts a 3.49 ERA since making his MLB debut back in 2016 and, since moving to a relief role back in 2020, has logged a 3.16 earned run average with a 21.4% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate. Suter’s age and lack of velocity — he averaged just 88.3 mph on his sinker in 2023 and has never topped an 88.4 mph average — might combine to tamp down his earning power, but he’s a candidate for a multi-year deal and could hold extra appeal to Stearns due to those Brewers ties.

Peralta, meanwhile, is a known commodity to another key Mets figure: incoming manager Carlos Mendoza. The former Yankees bench coach had a first-hand look at Peralta in each of the past three seasons as he became an increasingly important arm for the Yankees. From 2021-23, Peralta logged 153 innings of 2.82 ERA ball with a 21% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and huge 56.5% ground-ball rate. While Peralta isn’t quite at Suter’s level of hard contact suppression, he’s been in the 88th percentile or better in terms of his own average exit velocity in each of the past four seasons.

Brebbia, 33, has spent the past three seasons in San Francisco and fared quite well for the most part. He posted an ugly 5.89 ERA in a tiny sample of 18 innings there back in 2021 — his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Since then, he’s worked to a 3.47 ERA in 106 1/3 frames with the Giants from 2022-23. Brebbia has worked as a setup man but was also a frequent opener for the Giants. He’s fresh off a career-best 29.2% strikeout rate. In six big league seasons between the Cardinals and Giants, he’s logged a 3.42 ERA with better-than-average strikeout and walk rates of 25.5% and 7.2%, respectively.

Any of the three listed possibilities would come to the Mets with more track record than their signings to date. Mets fans might be frustrated at the lack of high-profile targets for the team outside of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed a 12-year contract with the Dodgers, but any of Suter, Peralta or Brebbia would improve the club’s bullpen — likely on relatively short-term deals. That comes with the benefit both of slightly bolstering the roster while also creating the possibility of emerging as a deadline trade candidate in the event that the Mets fall out of the running by July.

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