The biggest question of this year’s trade deadline is whether or not the Angels will trade Shohei Ohtani. Unsurprisingly, several rival clubs are interested in acquiring his services, with Jeff Passan of ESPN connecting him to the Rangers, Dodgers, Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays. That’s in addition to reporting from yesterday connecting him to the Diamondbacks and Orioles.
The fact that several clubs are interested in Ohtani is hardly shocking, given that the superstar has played so well in recent years to make it a legitimate question as to whether he’s the greatest player of all time. He’s hit at least 34 home runs in each of the past three seasons, having already hit 36 this year for the league lead with still a few months to go. His overall batting line of .302/.398/.674 amounts to a wRC+ of 184, which also leads all major league hitters. In addition to that, he’s thrown 408 innings as a pitcher since the start of 2021 with a 2.98 ERA, including a 3.71 ERA in his 19 starts this year.
Given the unprecedented nature of his performance, it would be a shock if any contender weren’t interested in him, so it stands to reason that several of them are reportedly on the phone lines. Whether Ohtani can actually be pried loose from the Angels is an open question, however. Recent reporting has suggested that the club will be listening to offers but that a deal is still considered unlikely. Ohtani is an impending free agent but the Halos aren’t completely buried in the standings. Their 51-49 record has them 4.5 games behind the Blue Jays for the final playoff spot, but with the Yankees and Red Sox in between. FanGraphs pegs their playoff odds at 13.7% while Baseball Prospectus puts them at 13.2%.
Rival clubs will only be able to acquire a few months of Ohtani’s services, but the offers will likely still be robust. Since a player like Ohtani has never previously existed, it’s hard to know exactly how much clubs would be willing to relinquish in order to acquire him. But since he’s the most impactful individual player that any club could conceivably add, it’s possible the bidding goes to unexpected levels. Beyond his on-field talents, there would also be opportunities for increased ratings and merchandise sales, not to mention the ability to try to negotiate an extension with the two-way player. It seems highly unlikely he would forego the open market at this point, but the opportunity to start the conversation early surely has appeal.
The Rangers make a ton of sense for Ohtani, in that their rotation has lost Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi to season-ending injuries. They also don’t have an everyday designated hitter and could easily accommodate Ohtani in their lineup. They are currently leading the American League West but the Astros are just two games back and Ohtani could go a long way to helping them fend off Houston. However, since they are in the same division as the Angels, lining up on a trade could be difficult. The Halos may not want to watch Ohtani thrive with their rivals, while the Rangers may have some hesitation about looking across the dugout at their former prospects for the next decade or so.
The Dodgers also make plenty of sense from a roster perspective. They currently have five starters on the injured list, including Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Walker Buehler, Noah Syndergaard and Ryan Pepiot. That’s forced them to bring up rookies like Bobby Miller, Michael Grove and Emmet Sheehan. The DH slot is usually taken by J.D. Martinez but he can at least play the outfield from time to time, a problem the club would likely be happy to work around. But the Angels may not prefer to send Ohtani across Los Angeles, given the public relations aspect. They and the Dodgers don’t compete in the same division, but they compete for customers and attention in the area, with the Angels usually the second fiddle to the Dodgers. Sending Ohtani to succeed in Dodger blue might be a bitter pill that they’d prefer not to swallow.
The other three clubs also make plenty of sense, given their tight American League East rivalry. The Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays currently occupy the top three spots in the division, separated by just 6.5 games. The Orioles have a 62-38 record but their rotation is clearly the weakest spot. Their starters have a collective 4.51 ERA that puts them in the bottom half of the league. They don’t have a clear DH either, often rotating various players through that spot.
The Rays actually have the strongest rotation ERA in the league, though that number may be skewed by their frequent use of openers. They certainly have a solid foursome in Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, Zach Eflin and Taj Bradley, but have lost Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen to season-ending surgeries while Josh Fleming seems likely to miss significant time as well. Given their fondness for versatile players, they could easily slot Ohtani into the DH role and move other players around as necessary.
The Jays have some rotation question marks, particularly in the case of Alek Manoah. He struggled badly enough in the beginning on the season to get optioned down to the club’s Florida Complex. He’s since returned and made three starts without much consistency. Hyun Jin Ryu is on a rehab assignment and could be back with the club shortly, rejoining Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi. The Jays use Brandon Belt as designated hitter most of the time but likely wouldn’t mind replacing him with Ohtani and figuring out a solution to that problem. The bigger issue might be their relatively weaker farm system compared to the other clubs listed here, as Passan lists them as a longer shot for that exact reason.
All in all, it’s still unknown how seriously the Angels are entertaining any offers coming their way. It’s important for them to do their due diligence so that they have all the information necessary to make the decision that is best for their organization, but that doesn’t obligate them to make a deal. The club starts a road trip tonight with three in Detroit, three in Toronto and then the first game of a series in Atlanta before the August 1 deadline. It’s possible that the results of those games will push the club in one direction or another, for the most significant decision of this trade deadline and arguably ever.
Read the headline , cam only say “ ya no kidding “ duh
When’s Dos Equis going to get Ohtani as a pitchman?
I want him to play for our beer league softball team too.
Actually, knowing how Japanese like to drink…
Reds – I propose MLBTR has a contest, whomever correctly guesses which team Ohtani is on in September gets a free one year subscription to Trade Rumors Front Office.
That would be cool of them.
I would be amazed if the Orioles pulled this off!
Of course Ohtani makes any team quite a bit better but the O’s probably think the cost is too high relative to where their greatest needs are, which is probably in the bullpen more than the rotation — which has been much better the past month — and maybe in the outfield with Mullins out and Hicks banged up.
I’d argue he’d make the Braves worse. I also think you’re looking at this in a vacuum of just adding him without losing anything.
My guess for the Braves to grab him would require some of their young big league talent that’s already on the field. Then as a pitcher he hasn’t even been good enough to be in the Braves starting 5 imo. Elder would likely be bumped (once Fried and Wright also return) and for this year at least his pitching better so that would feel like a loss to me.
The hitting would probably be a slight upgrade but depending who was subtracted from the lineup it may not be worth the step back we’d see swapping him out for Elder pitching plus whatever defense is lost from the player(s) sent back
I know people will probably think I’m crazy but there’s no doubt the Braves would get worse in my mind.
I see your point except for this: “As a pitcher, he hasn’t been good enough for the Braves starting 5.” You have got to be kidding me.
Ohtani has not pitched that well lately. He’s given up 21 earned runs in his last 41 innings. That’s not bad but fairly average. Definitely not elite as a pitcher right now. Any team that trades for Ohtani has to believe they’re trading for only 2 months of the best DH in the league but an average to above average starting pitcher. That’s why these trades proposed on here are a joke.
@niched
Small sample size.
Even if he was middle of the pack, the fact that he does both is useful in and of itself.
A lot more than a slight upgrade. Ohtani has arguable been the best hitter in the league this year. Ozuna has been alright, but he is nowhere near Ohtani.
But that small sample size really is what matters for a player you’d only have for 2 months — especially for a player who appears to be ailing. It’s too much to give up for a small market team whose biggest needs are in the bullpen and the outfield.
Now that I agree with you on. Ohtani isn’t worth a 2 month rental. Only way he gets traded is if a deal gets made to stay long term elsewhere.
Any thought that actually says adding the best player the game has ever seen makes a team worse is not a serious comment. Yes, adding the best hitter in the game on pace for 60HRs and an ace pitcher makes the Braves worse– come on, guy. Sober up.
My guess is the Angels decided not to trade Ohtani because his stock has fallen so much in the past month as a pitcher — though not as a hitter. He’s got a 7.71 ERA for the month of July — which helps no contending team especially relative to what he’d cost in the way of prospects. As a hitter he’s still red hot, but he’s a DH. If he could play in the outfield then I’m guessing his stock goes up again, but it’s moot since the Angels are not getting the offers they want to trade him.
I think yours is a bad guess. He had a blister and a cracked nail and has been limited. The Angels as usual mismanaged him. He should have skipped a start until it was fully healed. There is nothing wrong with his pitching. If you’ve been watching you’ve seen him be okay through three and then his finger gets sore and he’s had issues. They aren’t trading him because the team had 8 of 9 starters out and they are still right there with players coming back. They are a better team than the Yankees and Red Sox and Toronto– especially now with the trade just announced for Giolito and Lopez– and I don’t think they’re done.
Really so how many seasons with Ohtani have the Angels been in the Post Season?
Owen White (Top 100), Duran (former top 100 and good this year), someone like Cody Bradford or Cole Winn, John King, and a random rookie ball guy should fulfill the “2-3 top 100 prospects” and 5 total players requirement. Maybe Acuna or Walcott (also top 100 middle infielders) can get it done. It’s way more about who is traded (position) than prospect ranking for me.
There’s just no way that’s all it would take. This is why I don’t even want the Rangers trying. It’s going to take a Juan Soto esque package and more. That’s just too much gone. It’s going to be a minimum starting price of Acuna, White and probably Duran. Then add two more you hate hearing got traded. All for 2.5 months.
You are high if you think they will get a Soto-like haul for 2 months instead of 14 months.
It wasn’t 14 months, it was 2.5 years-26 months
I mean season months. 6 + 6 + 2
Here is a trade idea for you Degrom
Montgomery
Hicks
Luken Baker he’s a DH type crushing AAA pitching
Connor Thomas he’s depth not that good
For
Leiter
Porter
Kelly
If Goldschmidt were included, sure. Otherwise, there is no way Texas gives up 2 top 100 prospects for 2 rentals who are meh.
If you think Montgomery is meh you are confused.
Good luck
Montgomery’s numbers are excellent. I would have wanted him last season. The thing with trade value is that he only has 2 months left. That’s what makes him “meh.” Hicks is quite literally meh at best. He is 2% better than average over his career, according to ERA+. That’s closer to what Snell and Hader should cost (if the Padres reconsider).
You aren’t getting a good starter with years of control left. Nobody is dealing one of those.
An average reliever is valuable. Average isn’t bad it’s average.
You think you can get Snell and Hader for a couple of barely top 100 prospects??? Leiter has been awful this year. Neither guy can throw strikes.
Good lord just tired of talking with ignorant fans that always think my trade ideas arent fair when they are. You are delusional. I use trade simulator an UNBIASED SOURCE and you don’t.
Maybe Nelson Cruz is available. You should pick him up. For defense……
You are way further off. Using a trade simulator said the Brewers would trade Yelich, 40 MM, Burnes, and Williams for a bunch of random. Trade simulators lack common sense. It is ignorant to use an “unbiased” simulator. Also, I was saying that was close to it. It would likely take a little more, but it’s 2 months. Seriously, no GM offers that for those 2. The other 2 are worthless. Porter is rising, and Leiter would be sold low, which would be a bad idea. I’m living rent free in your head somehow.
Dude Leiter has sucked since the day he was drafted. He has good stuff but no clue where it’s going.
Yelich has a bad contract and a bad back that’s why he’s not worth that much.
You don’t seem to understand how money changes the value of players. Goldschmidt isn’t all that valuable because he makes 26 million a year. There isn’t an unlimited budget dude.
The simulator is the best thing we got. It’s a heck of a lot better than some biased fan(thats you) telling others what their players are worth.
So the Orioles getting him twice…. maybe they called twice…..
Cubs should offer the Angels, Seiya Suzuki- to clear money that’d be used to extend Bellinger.
Pretty long article for a player that’s not going anywhere huh.
They’re gonna trade him and teams know it. Hardest schedule remaining in baseball, no Trout. They will avoid getting nothing for him. Problem is his ultimate destination is almost certainly LA or NY, so we’ll see who overpays for one playoff run.
Halos should have traded him last year.
NY isn’t happening. Know the player.
If they do might as well trade renfroe, and Moore still doubt it will happen you realize they broadcast every angels game in Japan, he’s worth every penny, plus if Arte wants to sell he needs to keep ohtani
That’s it, those are the bread crumbs why a trade isn’t looking likely. And they haven’t yet started leaking to the press a likely trade to prepare the fan base for the blow.
I don’t think there is any chance he goes to New York. He is staying on the West coast.
People said the same thing about Soto and the Padres nabbed him.
Plugnplay — Agreed. I don’t see teams gouging their top prospects for a two-month rental, with Arte holding a mostly empty bag and bad publicity at the end of all this.
Pretty weird to complain about an article covering trade rumors on a site named MLB Trade Rumors.
A free one at that. I bet they yell at the recreational pamphlet rack in a hotel.
Exactly – now days it is not uncommon to find better content here versus The Athletic (which is in a nose dive since The NY Times bought them).
No Soup for You, who’s complaining? Funny how some can’t even understand a simple post. All I said is that, this is a long article for something that’s not going to happen. I personally sped thru it in 20 seconds, just looking at the teams and players and pretty much laughed it off.
He isn’t going anywhere, but as a Brewers fan, it does suck that your team isn’t even mentioned as a possibility. We really have no idea if the Crew even reached out, but any team in contention that isn’t willing to go all in or gauge the price has to be considered as not willing to go all in. And a team not willing to go all in just really has no shot, especially a team with almost no offense who relies on great pitching. One dude can help in both areas. This is CC Sabathia times two in so many ways. Just sayin.
Meanwhile, water is still wet.
I was gonna say that……
I do appreciate all the articles. Just another chance to discuss trades. Hopefully some big moves start happening soon.
Bwahahahahahhahahahahhaha I made a account just to say your comment is classic af lol……..however, as much as I hate to say we should trade Othani and get something back from him, rather than let him walk away in the off-season, that being said though it would be super rad if he gets the single season HR record in a angel uni.
You know what they say. Single season home run records fly forever…….
> water is still wet.
Well… Ummm… No.
Water can get other things wet, but it’s not technically wet itself. Because water is a liquid, it cannot be wet itself. Wetness requires a substance to be in contact with a surface, and water is the substance in this case.
(◔_◔)
I know. Sorry to rain on your water. Let’s just say, “water is still water”, and call it a day.
When reading poetry, you should always ask yourself, what is the meta for?
You lease go back to school. The noun version of wet is noun
1.
liquid that makes something damp.
“I could feel the wet of his tears”
I’m sure every contender in baseball is putting together a trade proposal for Ohtani. The Angels should do pretty well.
The only teams that have a chance to get Ohtani are the teams that would pay him 12/600 mil plus be willing to have a 300mil payroll. The Arizona’s and Baltimore’s are a nice thought but they’d be trading away their future and have no chance of re-signing him.
They may be referring to their spring training A team and their spring training B team.
A team that can’t afford him or never won/hasn’t won in a generation might see it as a real opportunity to win. Rays, Rangers, Reds, Twins, Orioles, Dbacks all fit there.
Getting deep into the playoffs is big money for small market teams. That alone might be worth some prospects. Tickets and jerseys are getting sold no matter where he ends up
True, but it’s not going to take some prospects, it’s going to empty the farm system.
Why does the ability to sign him long term matter for the trade right now?
Because why would you decimate your minor league system for a 2 month crap shoot?
Friend of mine told me this morning he heard on Fred Roggin’s show that in talks with the DBacks, Minassian asked about Carroll. I think Carroll and a couple of good prospects, including a pitcher, should be absolutely taken if offered.. Yeah, I know, not happening.
Carroll has multiple multiple times more value than Ohtani. Ohtani plus 2 or 3 other young good great players for Carroll.
Carroll doesn’t have more value than Shohei. I get your looking at the club control aspect, but still, no. Name me another player in history that fronts a rotation and bats clean up not named Babe Ruth.
Now would I do it if I were the Arizona GM? Not if I didn’t believe I had every resource available and a strong indication I could keep Ohtani. But if I did, I’d make that trade in a second.
Club control matters though. Teams don’t trade for players with indefinite control, they trade for players on certain contracts. Ohtani having less than half a season on his contract matters – it changes his value.
“A strong indication” of re-signing shouldn’t be enough to cover the surplus value going the other way. Had you said “negotiating window” prior to completion of trade, maybe..
lol Corbin Carroll easily has more trade value than Ohtani. FanGraphs has him at #4 overall in terms of value vs contract.
This is one of the dumbest things I’ve read on here. Corbin Carroll absolutely has more trade value than 1/2 a season of Ohtani.
Give ‘em Stowers Cowers Ortiz Rodrigues ( b4 everyone catches on ) Mayo ( ham sandwich too if requested) for Sho.
Angels would think about that no?
Os hardly miss a beat imo
Jackson Holiday ,Grayson Rodriguez and Hall for starters then there could be a possibility.
Lol enjoy that draft pick!
Can’t see anyone giving up top prospects for 2 months of a pitcher struggling with blisters — no matter how good a DH he also happens to be. If the Angels want prospects like Holliday and Grayson they should have traded him last season.
Why not include Adley and Gunnar too? Maybe toss is Boog’s BBQ recipe book while we’re at it.
No! Not Boogs’ BBQ recipe!
O’s need bullpen help more than a starter and maybe an outfielder. Their starters have pitched well the past month. Ohtani makes anyone better but he doesn’t match up well with the O’s needs
Lmao
Anyone chat with Farhan Zaidi today?
yes. He’s not interested
He’s not interested in decimating the farm system he just build up over the years. Ohtani is for sure going to test FA and that I when Farhan will attack.
Where’s Hemlock to teach me how to embolden my “No Sh#t” reply to this headline…?
NO SHIP
Read this: w3schools.com/html/html_formatting.asp
i think only bold and italic work
NO S#¡T
And mahalo nui loa!
I know there is no shot, but I’m still hoping my Braves go get him long term this offseason. My odds of winning the lottery are higher, but doesn’t hurt to hope
I don’t really think the cost would be worth it.. It would be nice to have him and all but we’ll see what happens
In my humble opinion, the Braves would have to subtract assets from the MLB roster. The farm system is filled with poops and potatoes right now. Not gonna happen.
Sorry I thought I read that you wanted to trade for him. Am I drunk?
As a Braves fan , i don’t think the Braves have enough to pull that trade off . But i would give anyone in the system for ohtani even if it is a rental.
I’m a Braves fan as well, and I wouldn’t say they have no shot. I’d classify it as slim. I think rooting for the Braves to sign Shohei would mean saying goodbye to Max, though.
Max Fried is one of my favorite Braves. I think he’s gone. He is active in the Union and probably will sign for the highest offer to protect the players that come after him.
If they try to keep him, can they afford 7yrs/$180MM or more for him? Do they want to spend that much on a pitcher?
I love Max as well and I have to agree with you. He’s gone.
Thank you Captain Obvious
It’s a website dedicated to trade rumors in major league baseball. Are they supposed to ignore the biggest story in the league because everybody knows he’s a hot commodity?
Not ignore it, but keep in mind that we don’t need daily updates on a trade that’s not happening.
The report of connections to the teams other than the Orioles and Diamondbacks is new information and as unlikely as a trade might be that information is still worth covering.
Ohtani is a great player and an incredible talent but he is overrated and his next contract is virtually guaranteed to be a disaster from a performance standpoint.
-He will be 30 the first season of the contract. Hard to overstate how much of a red flag that is. Amazing that isn’t being considered more in discussions about his next contract. If he were 28 (more like 27) the first season of his contract, it would be somewhat of a different story (although he still wouldn’t be worth the salary he is set to receive). 30 is way too old for the first season of the contract.
-He is a pitcher who requires a 6 pitcher rotation. Negates the myth of a saved roster spot, and guarantees that a below average (likely way below average) additional pitcher has to be carried. Instead of saving a roster spot, the reality is more like he costs whatever team he’s on a total of 2-2.5 roster spots- between the 6 pitcher rotation and him being a permanent DH who doesn’t play the field. Not only that, but his WAR is less valuable than face value because the below average pitcher that has to be carried because of Ohtani has to be factored in.
-He’s a permanent DH, which hamstrings the DH spot- other players can’t be rotated in to the DH spot for various purposes.
-He has averaged around 6 WAR per season since his debut. He’s not a phenom in terms of actual production in any way, shape, or form. There have been many players in history who have averaged 6 WAR (or better) through their first 6 years in MLB. Yes, he has peaked in the last 3 years (and is having his best season in his contract year- ‘shocker’)- but that obviously will not last. He still has not had a season as good as Trout’s 2 best seasons (might finally happen this season) and he will not remain nearly at his current level for any notable length of time (if at all) because of age (as well as possibly because of injuries).
-His value is roughly evenly divided between being a pitcher and a hitter- around 60/40 pitching to hitting. That means that as soon as he becomes a 1 dimensional player (he likely won’t pitch for much longer, at least effectively), his value will go way down.
His next contract is guaranteed to be a disaster from a performance standpoint and he should be traded. In fact, he should have been traded by last season’s trade deadline at the latest. Signing him would just be yet another disastrous signing of an aging player with nothing but the decline phase to look forward to
60/40 hitting to pitching.
For anyone calling Ohtani overrated, my advice is becoming a fan of curling.
Many, many players in MLB history have averaged 6 WAR (or better) through their first half dozen seasons. He’s not a phenom whatsoever in terms of actual production.
How about overvalued?
How about neither? The player market will decide his value, and whether you believe him to be over or undervalued, that’s still going to be his actual value. By definition. The numbers fans come up with in their own heads or on backs of envelopes don’t count for beans.
Yes, overvalued is a better word to use here
No, not that word either.
It’s not really the market that determines these big multi-year deals, at least not on its own. It’s the power of the players’ union. If it were just the market then players with huge contracts who are underperforming or frequently injured could be cut. So you could dump them like an underperforming stock — or like in the NFL where most contracts are not guaranteed but players more or less have to make the team each year. But the power of the union has made it such that all MLB contracts are guaranteed for all years in the contract even if the player has been terrible or mostly hurt for several years. I support unions, but the power of the MLB union is the reason for these long term agreements that last well after the player is no longer performing at a high level. Those players should be cut so that big money can go to other players that are performing. Then it would work more like a real marketplace.
Sorry, no. It’s the market. Nobody forces teams to sign free agent contracts. Not the players, not the unions — nobody.
Um, yes, it is the players that forced free agent contracts. Haven’t you ever heard of Curt Flood?
Oh, so you want to bring back the Reserve Clause?
No, I already said I want the system to be more like a true marketplace where long term free agent contracts do not have to be guaranteed. And the only reason they are guaranteed is because of the power of the players’ union. Free agency is definitely a good thing — but the players’ union went too far on guaranteed long term deals.
So you don’t want teams to control players for years in under market contracts, as they do now?
If guaranteed contracts are under market then why do players and the players union insist on them? Rob Manfred recently said owners want limited contracts, but Tony Clark and the players union will not allow it. Here is an article from a few months ago in The Athletic – theathletic.com/4426971/2023/04/18/mlb-contract-te…
And if an elite player are his agent are worried a long term contract could leave him under market, they just get an opt out clause inserted into the contract. Of course only the player can opt out — not the team. And of course only the players still performing well opt out — but only to sign another guaranteed long term deal. Washed up players never opt out.
Players are required to play on under-market contracts until they reach free agency, for anywhere from 5-8 years. Then they have the opportunity to play on market-rate contracts (though the majority never get that far). Teams can then offer them any length of contract under any terms they wish and believe the player will sign. We’ve seen so many permutations of these contracts over the years, I fail to see the issue you believe you are raising.
Name one free agent agreement for one MLB player that is not guaranteed. How can that be unless it is enforced in some agreement between labor and owners — and not left to the marketplace? And this is related to your point about the younger players not getting paid market rates (which is only partly true due to arbitration and draft bonuses but a separate issue). It’s because of these past their prime older players on long term guaranteed contracts that salaries for younger, higher performing players are depressed. You can’t have higher salaries for younger players when older, non-performing players can’t be cut.
What? I really don’t follow what you are going on about at all.
Hamstrings the DH spot? You see his numbers? Did you think because he can do two things he enables a team to carry an extra player – let’s say an extra reliever? He’s in great shape…I think he’ll be ok and his contract, whatever he gets, will be well worth it. The crowds he will bring in will make up for it.
They have to carry at least 1 more pitcher just to enable him to be in the rotation. The saved roster spot narrative is a complete myth.
It’s impossible to know if he’ll be worth his contract. Can a body hold up pitching and hitting at an elite level into your 30’s? It’s unchartered waters and the contract will be absolutely massive.
The only certainty is that the Angels made an absolute killing off of Shohei.
You probably just took 15 minutes and used about 1,800 words to become the smartest guy in the room. It didn’t work.
He is the best player in the sport and has already demonstrated his value to a club in a tournament setting, which is what the new playoff format is. Spouting loud & long, repeating oneself…it doesn’t make one the obvious ‘smartest person in the room’. It just makes it obvious that they believe themselves to be.
OCBeach, let me illustrate why Michael Jordan wasn’t really very good. Why Pam Anderson is actually a homely frump. And why Tom Brady was one of the worst QB’s in NFL history.
BPax;
OCBeach made a lot of points.
You kids are insulting him, calling him names, and making
fun of him. What none of you is doing is addressing any of
his points.
I love the kid that compared the MLB playoffs to the WBC Tournament. Japan played 3 games and won . Not remotely
the same. (The competition is hardly as good.)
He only pitched 50 odd innings total over his first three seasons.
“He’s not a phenom in terms of actual production in any way, shape or form”. That’s a lot of words just to be wrong. Actual fWAR over the last three seasons:
2021 – 8.0
2022 – 9.4
2023 – 6.6 (100 games into the season)
That is elite of the elite territory, whether you like it or not. He has 24 fWAR over the last 3 years – the most of any player, and more than 4 fWAR clear of second place.
You make really good points around the 6-man rotation etc, but that gets undone by saying absolutely ridiculous things otherwise.
Again, he has peaked in the last 3 seasons. His overall production has been an average of around 6 WAR per season and he most likely will regress to that level or significantly worse in the near future- he turns 30 in the middle of next season. 10+ WAR seasons are the elite of the elite. 8 WAR definitely isnt- that’s standard MVP level performance, at best. 36 WAR in 6 seasons does not place him anywhere near the best of the best of all time, let alone being compared to Babe Ruth, of all players. Considering his age and the clock ticking on his pitching career, he could easily be less than a 5 WAR level player within the next 3 years.
Actually, 8 WAR is standard level MVP performance, not ‘at best’. But it’s definitely not the elite of the elite and his overall resume has been that of a standard level great player- not that of a historic superstar.
People can argue black and blue on his historical credentials – talking about Babe Ruth is fun but doesn’t lead anywhere. However, you’re trying to tell people that three straight years of equal to or more than “standard MVP level” isn’t “elite of the elite”. He’s literally been the most productive baseball player over the last 3 years. If he isn’t elite, then no one is elite.
Also, you’re harping on about six seasons worth of WAR, while ignoring the fact that they are his only six seasons. Plus, in his first 3 seasons, he only pitched 50 odd innings total, and batted in 250 games – half of what makes up a standard 3 year stretch (nearly 500 games).
What would happen if Ohtani was part of a 5-man rotation? Would his arm fall off? Is this some red line for Ohtani that he has stated he will never cross? Puzzling BTW Ohtani’s WAR the last two seasons 9.5, 9.0 and this season on target for another 9.0 or 10.0 so you’re sorta underplaying his current rate of production.
I acknowledged that he has peaked in the last 3 years while also pointing out that he is in line for a major decline in the very near future. Trout’s average over his first 6 years: 9 WAR. Ohtani: 6 WAR. Despite being the more experienced and older player and despite transitioning from the highest level of Japanese baseball rather than the minor leagues. Trout is a historic superstar, Ohtani isn’t.
This is an odd argument. You’re comping trout’s first 6 season to Ohtani’s but failing to account for anything.
2020 was a 1/3 of a season and Shohei underwent TJ and couldn’t even pitch in that timeframe. Not much of a colorful analysis there.
His WAR/162 is on a superstar level for sure. WAR dings you for being a DH offensively also. Trout gets the CF boost.
I have no idea how someone like him might hold up. I know that he would be a good defensive outfielder if he could no longer pitch. It’s going to be a risky mega deal but you could really say the same for all these crazy mega contracts given out.
& obviously if he gets a $550MM contract—the odds that he’ll provide surplus value on that aren’t very good. There’s no present day comparison for Ohtani. This is completely unchartered territory. He’s already done more than we’ve seen anyone else do.
I can’t imagine he won’t be a very good hitter at minimum. How long can he hold up as a SP? Like I said—no clue at all. I don’t know how anyone could know. Whoever gives out it is obviously taking a big risk. I can’t imagine it’s not one of the historical financial powerhouses to do so.
Exactly he’s a good outfielder/1st baseman he can be a closer later on in his career, one of the fastest players as well he will be better than trea turner, also he brings in a lot of viewers/ media from Japan. Definitely worth everything he’s going to get even if he declines in 5 years.
I actually agree with you. He’s also double the injury liability because you’re counting on him to fill two spots. A 6 man rotation and no DH flexibility also hurts more than it seems on the surface. But to me, the biggest liability he represents is what it will likely take to sign him because he’s viewed as a top line starter and MVP caliber hitter. That’s a 500m player, but any decline or injuries will affect both spots at once. It’s almost certain that the contract will be a severe over pay that he won’t be able to live up to. As a cubs fan, I’d pass.
The angels should also trade him to the dodgers for a bounty of players. It’ll be painful rest of season to watch in across town, but you’ll get 7-9 years worth of payback.
It’s not exactly a 6 man rotation they just make sure he gets six days of rest, they skip the 6th guy quite often.
I think his trade value has plummeted the past month alone. He has given up 21 runs in his past 41 innings. Not awful but pretty average on the mound as he struggles with blisters. If teams could trade for two years of him they wouldn’t care so much about recent pitching performance but for only two months they have to be weighing his latest numbers the most. Of course he’s probably the best hitter in the league, but he’s a DH, with no defensive value. Teams like the Orioles would love to have his bat but already have too many 1B/DH types. So if the Orioles traded for him the Angels would have to be happy getting Ryan O’Hearn or Ryan Mountcastle in return (in addition to several good to medium prospects) because they will not be getting Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday or Grayson Rodriguez for two months of a great DH who lately has looked barely better than average on the mound.
This could be exciting, but is it worth it for a rental? I think it only makes sense if you have the money to replace the lost prospect capital with free agents since it will likely set you back in the future.
Depends on your attendance and if you have some prospects LA likes more than you do.
Trade and sign the only worthwhile option here, considering the amount of talent they’d be demanding in return for a half season rental.
Greatest player of all time? Let’s not be going there in the guy’s 6th season.
Him or Ruth until someone else shows they can both pitch and hit at the highest level. Or someone has a .500 ba or 0.97 era.
Ruth only pitched for a couple years before stopping.
Wow, he got over 1,200 innings in just 2 years?
@phree. A couple years? The dude was a pitcher for EIGHT years! You know, like that couple of Homer’s that guy Roger Maris hit that one year :/
Ruth pitched 5 years at 130+ innings each, twice at over 320+ innings. He actually pitched in over 10 seasons. His career record as a pitcher:: 96-46 with a career 2.28 era.
In 22 career seasons, he has .968 fielding percentage, averaging over 11 assists a year.. He played all 3 outfield positions & 1B, in addition to pitching
A career (22 years) batting line of .342/.474/.690. That’s a career OPS 1.164
Remember this, when Ruth played, there were no ‘rest’ days to DH.
Actually, he was 94-46. Along with 107 complete games, 17 shutouts. and 4 saves.
I really hope Atlanta can pull one of those “Yeah, send him over. I don’t want him pitching against me” kinda moments.
The ONLY way I see a trade happening is if the team has the depth in the farm to deal and can live with losing him in the off season
Everyone knows he is going to free agency. The Angels are not going to give him for a discount.
Do you see a team like the Orioles giving up a package that includes 2 or 3 guys from this group: Rodriguez, Hall, Cowser, Kjerstad, and Westburg and maybe two more decent prospects?
The Diamondbacks can’t even come close in that type of package.
I just think the risk reward is too great for a one year shot.
It is going to have to be the Yankees or Dodgers. A large market team that has the prospects, depth and won’t care if he walks.
Yankees don’t have the prospects to trade. They are also hurting on depth. I can’t see Cashman adding him to their already inflated payroll.
Why would the Yankees want him a rental? And your wrong they have the prospects to get him. Easy pass on the future Dodger.
Only teams I see doing something stupid enough to get him don’t look like buyers. I would expect a couple of fake top 100 prospects or at least bottom half. Don’t see anyone trading a legit elite prospect. Don’t think he will be traded. Teams need to pay players worth plus enough to cover the lost revenue.
Angels have to ask for prospects but also controllable players at the major league level now. Can’t just flip for farmers – which makes a trade all the more unlikely
Orioles have that covered too; Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Ramon Urias, Jorge Matteo…all have 2 or more years of control left. Pitching? Cole Irvin, Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer, and Kyle Bradish all have years of control left too. I’ll assume you don’t mean bullpen arms, but if needed…yeap, small army w/ lots of control years left.
What do think the Angles need though? You think a Mullins, Bradish, and a prospect type deal?
The orioles aren’t gonna do that deal ever……
Trading Bradish and Mullins for Ohtani would make the O’s worse this season and next. Bradish is pitching well right now, Ohtani is mediocre on the mound lately. And Mullins plays great CF defense — Ohtani plays no defense. Plus Mullins may be out for awhile — hurt players rarely get traded.
Rangers farm is deep at both, but just not sure they’ll be willing to go all in on him unless they have some expectation of him re-signing with them.
For the Orioles this is probably the names that are in play.
It probably costs two out of this group:
Rodriguez
Cowser
Westburg
and then three out of this group
Hall
Kjerstad
Ortiz
Holliday
Hayes
Your groups are a mess. How is DL Hall grouped with Austin Hays? The O’s would be stupid to trade Holliday and Rodriguez for anyone this season, especially Ohtani, who has been unimpressive as a pitcher lately and plays no defense. The O’s have too many injuries in the outfield, so Austin Hays, an All-Star this season, is not getting traded unless the O’s somehow traded for a better outfielder. The only two players from your lists that might get traded for two months of Ohtani are Joey Ortiz and DL Hall — maybe Colton Cowser but doubtful. If Ohtani was on fire as a pitcher things could be different, but he’s not.
I predict a team like the Padres foolishly giving away their entire farm system like they did for Soto.
Maybe the D-Backs, Rangers or Yankees.
In anycase, Go Dodgers!
The entire farm that now has what 4 top 100 guys and a 5th coming soon. It’s been a year so some teams know how to replace them quickly.
As great as he is he is still a rental. Would be a awful move trading a elite prospect for him.
Lol. I’m not the one who believes Ohtani is more valuable than Carroll.
Yankees should invest in players like Ohtani but instead waste salary and roster space on bums like Donaldson and Stanton
We know.
My friend runs a collegiate/out of college team. He told me he is interested too. Light story day, come on trade rumors do better
“Next breaking news: Water is wet”
When water becomes wet let us know. Ohtani has a better chance of being traded twice in the next week than water ever being wet.
Isn’t “he the greatest player of all time” a bit of a stretch?
Yes, this writer is prone to exaggerate a bit…..he may be the best of the last several years and may dominate forward….but just like the selective ERA numbers that eliminate anything prior to 2021….a bit early to make that “greatest of all time” declaration……lets see how time affects his overall career……offensively, Hammering Hank Aaron hit 30+ HR’s 15 seasons with 8 over 40HR’s……as he went on his way to 755…..and he doesn’t have the record any longer…..when Ohtani has that kind of consistency and career…….give us a call.
why do people think the Rangers losing Odorizzi for the years is a bad thing? Have they not seen him pitch?
0% chance Orioles trade for Ohtani.
Ohtani is way overvalued. His hitting is around Nick Castellanos level (5 years 100 million), and his pitching is around Kevin Gausman level (5 years 110 million). Add in the fact that he is just one player and one injury can keep in out on both sides, he should be getting something like 10 years at 400 mil at most. I’d rather have 2 seperate players because one injury takes both parts out. People think just because hes 2 in one players, that extra roster spot is really valuable. An extra roster spot is just an extra Triple A reliever. 600 million would be insane for someone like him
I don’t know about overvalued. Money is going to follow the guy so the part where we are so used to tying salary to on field performance has to be challenged. Though the point about the concentrated risk is a big one I haven’t really heard many people acknowledging in his contract speculation.
Wut.
Nick Castellanos has never had a single season with an OPS+ better than Ohtani’s career OPS+. Heck, he’s only had two seasons within 20 points of it. Castellanos is not Ohtani’s comp at the plate.
The issue that the non-Angels fans aren’t giving enough weight to is the Arte Moreno Ego and Legacy Factor. First of all, Arte hates the Dodgers. There is no way he’ll trade Ohtani up the freeway. A few years ago, he wasn’t even willing to send Luis Rengifo to LA for Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling. No chance he’d voluntarily give them Ohtani. Secondly, he’s not going to trade him to an AL West rival, especially an ascending one like Texas, or a perennial nemesis like Houston. The organization couldn’t cope with watching Ohtani beat up on the Angels 13 times every season. The trade candidate that makes the most sense is Baltimore. They’ve got the best prospects, and the least likelihood of Ohtani signing there long term, leaving the door open for Shohei to return to Anaheim in free agency. And the Moreno Legacy factor kicks in when Arte realizes he’d forever be known as the guy who traded away Ohtani. That might be the biggest obstacle of all.
Actually he was willing. That deal fell apart for reasons other than Moreno being unwilling.
We don’t know that at all. The only real event occurring between the time the news of the trade broke and it falling apart was Pederson’s arbitration hearing. Since that outcome had actual monetary value, and impatience does not, I’d look to it as the cause.
I think for all those reasons you suggest Tampa Bay makes the most sense, moreso than Baltimore. Tampa Bay needs him more, and he’s perfect for the positions they need. He could also get them to the World Series, and it would be the only trade they would need to make. Of course, they have no shot of signing him long term, nor would they want to. But alas, it makes no difference, because Arte ain’t gonna trade him.
I agree. The Os need a starter but not as much as they need another bullpen arm and maybe an outfielder. They need a big bat but not at DH. Ohtani makes anyone better but doesn’t match up well with Os needs relative to the crazy cost it would take to acquire him.
Moreno was willing to make the trade with the Dodgers but became impatient after the Mookie Betts deal was delayed. In retrospect, it was a blessing in disguise as Taylor Ward would’ve been part of the trade going to the Dodgers.
I personally don’t believe that was the issue, and I’m pretty sure we never knew the name of the second player coming from the Angels with Rengifo for certain. This deal was made while Pederson was in salary arbitration, which went in the Dodgers’ favor after the trade news broke. I suspect when Pederson’s cost was set lower the Dodgers asked for more on their side of the trade, and this is what ticked off Moreno and caused him to pull the plug.
Moreno wouldn’t nix a deal over arbitration. This offseason he approved deals for Renfroe and Urshela who were both going into arbitration. The deal was already leaked to the public. It was a done deal.
All sources at the time confirmed it was nixed over Moreno’s ego and unwillingness to continue waiting for the Dodgers to work out the Betts trade. He felt his team was being disrespected by being kept in limbo.
The first two names were Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward, and the third name was heavily rumored to be Chris Rodriguez. The three names going to the Angels had been leaked to the public: Joc Pederson, Ross Stripling and prospect Andy Pages.
Not over arbitration, over money. We heard lots of rumors and theories at the time, but only one scenario makes actual sense, and that’s the Dodgers trying to change something in the deal when Pederson got cheaper.
Phew! And here I thought no one was interested in the once-in-a-lifetime two-way player
He’s a once in forever player, a whole different animal from anyone we’ve ever seen before in our lifetime or any other. I swear some fans now are so obsessed with analysis they’ve completely lost track of the game and what makes it interesting or fun to watch.
what makes the game interesting is Astros hanging tough with JP France as a TOR guy and Chas McCormick as their MVP – and THAT is why Elias will be VERY careful at the deadline.
Water is wet
lol no
Enjoy watching him, but let’s not get too high on the hype train! Remember that, except for about once a week, he’s the only 1-way player in the batting order. Everyone one else plays a position.
Someone on Rogers Sportsnet (Rogers owns the Blue Jays) today suggested there might be some interest in an Ohtani for Vlad 1 for 1 deal. Vlad would be a big draw in L.A. because of his Dad’s time with the Angels. He also has a couple years of team control left.
If the Angels decide to trade Ohtani (which they will not), they could get a lot more in return from someone else…way more than Vladdy.
That would be a phenomenal return. A proven superstar with multiple years of control instead of prospect potential? I’d take that in a heartbeat. Vladdy senior was my favorite player. We would welcome his son with open arms. That would definitely take the sting out of losing Ohtani, and wouldn’t kill the hope of pulling out a wildcard spot this year, while getting some thing in return before Ohtani walks at the end of the year
I see a parallel to the Darvish situation. Obviously, Ohtani is much better, but I recall JD holding onto him until the last moment and trying to get Buehler or Veedogo and ending up taking Calhoun, Alexy, and a nobody. I hope the Angels do even worse and keep him since no team wants to give up 5 top 50 prospects in MLB for 2 months of a DH with command issues on the mound. A high ask is reasonable, but not the level of delusion these guys have. Soto had 14+ months left, not just 2. Even if Ohtani is twice as nice, that’s worth 4 months. The ask for the sky mentality tends to backfire, and I really hope it does here.
I see the AL East fighting for him, as the winner of Ohtani is the favorite to win the division and get the number 1 seed. I like the Rays to get him simply because they’ll never get a player like him otherwise. Plus, it would be great for the franchise.
I think a package that the O’s could offer that wouldn’t hurt them too much long term would be: Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Hall. This could be a win in the halos book to long term, kjerstad plays right, Ortiz at second to pair with Neto establishes a young core in the lineup of Neto, Ortiz, O’hoppe, Moniak, and maybe Adell if he has it figured out now. Hall I don’t believe is that far off from figuring things out at the major level
Lots of speculation for someone that’s not getting traded
I know it will never happen but hear me out here…
….Ohtani to Tampa.
His salary is only around $10 million for the rest of the season, certainly money Tampa can afford, IIRC when Scherzer was on the block back in 2021 Tampa was interested before he went west. The Rays certainly have the prospect capital to appease the Angels to move him and get more than what they will get for him rejecting the QO and leaving. The Rays still have enough pieces in the minors/coming off injury next year that when he inevitably leaves in the winter it won’t leave them completely barren,
Put Ohtani in that lineup and atop the Rays rotation in the playoff, and they make themselves a great world series contender. And the Rays can use a big boost, since their hot start they are playing right at or below .500 and have been passed in the division by the Orioles. That would give the team a big boost, and it would show they care about winning a title.
As I said it is never going to happen, but I’ve been saying Ohtani to the Rays for 3 weeks now.
Big, if true
clickbait drawing widespread clicks
And as you keep posting Ohtani trade articles for clicks, Angels continue to win and move up the Wild Card Standings.
The O’s don’t need to trade any of Gunnar or Jackson or Grayson to get 2 months of Ohtani. That’s how strong their farm system is. But also Ohtani hasn’t pitched that well lately. But I doubt they’ll seriously pursue Ohtani because their biggest needs right now are probably in the bullpen and in the outfield.
You heard it here first….Ohtani is headed to Miami!!!!
Probably not but that would be a shocker no one saw coming
Please trade him to a contender, everyone deserves it!
Great point! A season that saw major changes to the game, for the better, to have Ohtani playing in the playoff would make for a ‘Can’t miss playoff season.’
Arte, draw this out for the next week, speculation, scenarios, etc.
I am thinking a team could get both a great hitter and a pitcher for $600 million. While Ohtani gives you an extra roster spot you also lose two spots on your roster should he get hurt and be unable to play. Given his age, how long before he becomes just a DH.?
… and water is wet…
Greatest Of All Time? In his handful of seasons he definitely performed as a great, well except 2020 when he wasn’t even close to an average player.. but 2020… I think it is okay to say that we can just brush that off as so many players did poorly that season.
But say greatest of all time… definitely not yet but he is a generational talent. having two of those talents on one team is amazing. Trout being the other. He continues to play anywhere close to what he has done so far for a few more years you can put him in that crowd of one of the greats if not the greatest.
There will be a time, probably in the not too distant future where he will have to pick hitting or pitching. I’d say go for hitting. while he is a good pitcher he can’t field. the rest of his game makes us forget about that though 🙂
This is all talk. Any deal would have to be approved by Moreno and he will not under any circumstances approve a trade. In fact, he would probably fire Minasian for recommending such actions. This is all PR to tamp down the noise about if the Angels are talking to people. They are so they don’t have to answer that question any more.. They think if they barley make a WC that Ohtani will forget about the last 6 years of losing. Many of the key players are also gone after this year so they will have to fill many roster holes next season and won’t have the money to sign anyone if Ohtani stays. But Moreno wouldn’t care at that point. He signed Ohtani and he doesn’t care if they lose 7 more straight seasons at that point.
Coming from a lifelong Angel fan… At this point, I hope the Angels trade Ohtani. Imho the Angels are fooling themselves if they think they have a legitimate chance to make the type of postseason run that may convince Ohtani to stay… let alone even make the last playoff spot.
The fact that Angel management does not have a “feel” if Ohtani would stay after 5 and a half years, considering that he’s a unicorn not only from a talent standpoint, but an international, unprecedented superstar revenue generating unicorn is from a business standpoint a travesty. Ohtani is one of the rare superstar athletes, that even if his on field performance regresses, as it should/will, still is a net gain and profitable income to the organization compared to whatever his salary is going to be.
Either Moreno/Angels have failed to lock him up, or it’s a testament to Ohtani’s desire and motivation to win that he is not signed. Probably both.
If they keep him for a run this year, I still have not seen a single article or word about whom exactly the Angels should target to acquire that can help them make a run??? Goldschmidt? Arrenado? Montgomery? Giolitio? Is it worth giving up any talent we have in the minors at this point?
Additionally, I hate the Dodgers/Yankees, but if I see anymore “Arte would never approve a trade to the Dodgers/bitter pill to swallow”… I swear to holy Jesus… please don’t compound your mistakes due to pride and stubbornness. As an Angel fan, you better be willing to take the absolute best offer given regardless of who its coming from!!!!!!!!!!
That’s absurd to think that you would simply not trade Ohtani and get everything you possibly could for him… Embarrassment and pride have long left the building at some point over the last 5+ years
The next 6 days are going to be wild
PS. Imho the problem the Angels organization is having is not the FA contracts that have gone array (Pujols, Hamiltion, Rendon). It happens… it’s the nature of the economics of the sport where teams are paying for what players have done and not what they are going to do… Since the 90’s, I can only think of a handful of FA’s that have actually been worth or outperformed their deals (Vlad, Torii, Abreu)
The problem is player development / drafting. Ever since Reagens became GM and guys like Eddie Bane and Tom Kotchman left development and scouting… the Angels farm system has been abysmal.
Kudos to organizations like the Dodgers, Rays, Cleveland w/ pitching… on another level… year after year
The could have extended him back after the 2021 season. He was open to it. But, when his agent said they wanted to be at an AAV higher than Scherzer at $42 million they backed off hoping the price would go down after the next season, which ended up being another almost MVP season. Now they are willing to pay whatever they have to. They could have had him for maybe $400 million. Now its gonna cost a lot more. Lack of foresight on the Angels.
If teams are just looking to create some buzz around their deadline activities, Kihei Otani (who is a realtor, but whatever) is available for the market price of a 3BR, 2BA home in Amarillo. You also have the right to announce, “WE GOT OTANI!!!! WE GOT OTANI!!!!”