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The Twins’ Breakout Rookie

By Anthony Franco | August 8, 2023 at 4:42pm CDT

The Twins have rattled off five consecutive wins, pushing themselves a season-high six games above .500. Paired with the Guardians dropping eight of their last 10, Minnesota has stretched their lead in the AL Central to 5.5 games. All of a sudden, only the Braves have a larger cushion at the top of a division.

That’s somewhat a reflection of an otherwise dismal AL Central, of course. Yet Minnesota has a 19-12 record since the start of June and the sixth-best run differential overall (+53) among American League clubs. They’re playing like a legitimate playoff team.

Among the reasons for Minnesota’s improved production of late: a somewhat quiet building case for Rookie of the Year consideration. Edouard Julien owns a .299/.389/.512 batting line through his first 235 plate appearances. Among the 43 first-year players with 200+ trips to the dish, none is reaching base at a higher clip. Only Corbin Carroll, Matt McLain, Yainer Diaz and Luke Raley have a better slugging mark.

Julien has only played 65 games, roughly three-fifths of the action logged by the likes of Josh Jung and Gunnar Henderson. He’d be behind that duo in Rookie of the Year consideration if the season ended today. There’s a chance for Julien to close that gap in the season’s final couple months (particularly with Jung set to miss six weeks thanks to a thumb fracture that’ll require surgery).

Award consideration aside, the more meaningful development is the introduction of a middle-of-the-order caliber bat into Minnesota’s lineup. That didn’t come out of nowhere. The lefty-swinging Julien had been regarded as one of the more talented offensive players in the minor leagues before making his MLB debut. There’s some amount of uncertainty with any prospect before they get exposure to big league pitching, though, and Julien has only 38 games of Triple-A experience under his belt.

The 24-year-old hasn’t had any issues against MLB pitching thus far. His results in the minors had been built on power and an extremely patient plate approach. He’s showing the same profile at the MLB level. Julien almost never chases pitches off the plate; his 18.9% swing rate on offerings outside the strike zone is lowest among all MLB hitters with 200+ plate appearances. Julien is swinging at pitches within the zone at a roughly average clip. That’s generally the approach one would want to see from a hitter, particularly a rookie — patient without getting too passive.

Julien’s comfort working deep counts is naturally going to come with a fair number of strikeouts. There’s also just some swing-and-miss in his game; he’s made contact on 72.2% of his swings, roughly four percentage points below the 76.4% league average. Julien will probably strike out too often to be a .300 hitter. His .410 average on balls in play is bound for some regression.

There’s no need for Julien to run a near-.300 average to be a productive player, though. He’s going to work plenty of walks to keep his OBP floor high. Prospect evaluators have credited him with above-average to plus power potential. Julien has shown that at the MLB level, connecting on 10 homers with a quality 42.9% hard contact percentage.

The remaining concern in Julien’s offensive profile is probably his limited track record against same-handed pitching. The Twins have shielded him against southpaws, keeping him to 29 MLB plate appearances thus far. In 2022, he had marked platoon splits in Double-A. Julien hit .332/.465/.566 against righties in the minors last season compared to a .210/.373/.276 showing versus left-handers.

For now, the Twins are happy with a rookie who’s mashing right-handed pitching. The Twins have struggled as a team against southpaws, but they have Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and switch-hitting Willi Castro on hand as righty-capable infielders who can take some pressure off Julien in the short term.

Moving forward, the bigger question is where Julien fits best defensively. Scouting reports have long pegged him as a well below-average defender at second base, where he’s spent the majority of his professional career. Public metrics have panned his work over his first 366 MLB innings at the keystone.

The Twins have lived with the subpar middle infield glove to inject more life into the offense. Julien’s two promotions have been in response to injuries to Jorge Polanco. The latter is now healthy, but the Twins reshuffled their infield to keep Julien in the lineup. Polanco has started four times at third base since being reinstated from the IL on July 28, his first work at the hot corner in seven years.

Whether Minnesota feels that’s a long-term option remains to be seen. The Twins could welcome Royce Lewis back from an oblique strain within the next couple weeks. The former first overall pick has battled myriad injury issues throughout his career but been a productive player whenever healthy. Lewis is probably ticketed for regular run at the hot corner when he returns. That could push Polanco back to the keystone and perhaps move Julien into a primary designated hitter capacity.

That’d enable Minnesota to cut into the playing time of Joey Gallo, who is hitting .156/.276/.349 since an excellent first month. Beyond this season, Julien’s emergence figures to only raise more questions about the possibility of subtracting a left-handed bat to add more lineup balance. Gallo’s impending free agency will remove one player from the group, while the club will have a net $9MM option decision on Max Kepler.

If they’re comfortable with Julien as a tolerable (if fringy) defender at second base, that could lead to an interesting question on Polanco’s future. Minnesota can bring the veteran infielder back on a $10.5MM option. That’s solid value — before this year’s injury-plagued season, Polanco was one of the league’s better offensive second basemen — but could make him a potential trade candidate. The Brewers, for instance, exercised an option on Kolten Wong before dealing him to Seattle last offseason.

Those are decisions the Minnesota front office could weigh three months from now. In the interim, they’ll be thrilled with Julien’s excellent start to his career. Wherever he plays, he looks like an impact piece in the lineup, at least against right-handed pitching. The Twins are in pole position for a division title after a disappointing 2021-22 stretch, in part because of their hot-hitting rookie.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins Edouard Julien Jorge Polanco

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View Comments (15)
Post a Comment

15 Comments

  1. its_happening

    2 years ago

    Julien showed up at WBC and played very well.

    9
    Reply
  2. just_breathe

    2 years ago

    “middle-of-the-order caliber bat”: he led off Saturday and Sunday against Arizona and batted second Friday. His high OBP profile (Sunday 1/1 with 3bb) in an offense without lots of options could make him lead off candidate at least this year

    4
    Reply
  3. Ham Fighter

    2 years ago

    Yea finally a Canadian hitter doing well thats not joey votto!

    3
    Reply
    • Edp007

      2 years ago

      Vladdy is ok too

      1
      Reply
  4. SODOMOJO

    2 years ago

    Kid is a stud. Plays his ass off, high intensity

    3
    Reply
  5. jorge78

    2 years ago

    They replaced Arreaz
    (all singles) with
    Julien (all walks)…..

    2
    Reply
    • Uhh ok

      2 years ago

      Uh have you watched him? He ain’t all walks.

      3
      Reply
    • arby58

      2 years ago

      If they put up similar numbers, the Twins got a solid starting pitcher capable of 200 innings pitched in the ‘trade’ of second basemen.

      Reply
  6. NineChampionships

    2 years ago

    Not bad for a 19R pick! I love these stories of late rounders making it and finding success.

    5
    Reply
    • Ejemp2006

      2 years ago

      Exactly why character and culture are the number one factors for success. Lots of baseball potential is lost to drugs, alcohol, and late night activities. So much more to organizational negligence.
      The Twins seem to get it really right with about two players every ten years. This guy looks like a cross between Chuck Knoblach, Ben Zobrist, and Daniel Murphy. Hopefully he can stay healthy and fulfill all his potential.

      Reply
  7. Braves_saints_celts

    2 years ago

    As an Auburn fan this warms my heart, I’m proud of you kid! WAR EAGLE!!!

    2
    Reply
  8. martras

    2 years ago

    Can’t see the Twins bringing Polanco back next year. With Polanco being so injury prone, limited defensively and aging, seems like a good time to move on. I definitely expect the Twins to pick up the option and trade Polanco.

    Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Eduoard Julien, Willi Castro. Any of those guys could potentially see reps at 2B next year.

    Julien’s line drive rate is an outstanding 27.7% since the All Star Game. Combined with his full usage of the field, limited fly ball rate his BABIP should be pretty high. Given how frequently his fly balls turn into home runs, there’s reason to wondering how much regression to expect. Julien also appears to be adapting his game as well. He’s striking out less and walking more as the season goes on.

    1
    Reply
  9. CityofChampions

    2 years ago

    10 Hrs and 18 RBI’s really caught my eye. That’s got to be up there in lowest RBI total for a guy with 10+ Hrs.

    1
    Reply
  10. But It Do

    2 years ago

    Cool. This guy is not a trade candidate and this article says nothing about a potential extension. So why is MLBTR writing about his stats like they’re a wanna-be Fangraphs? Pining for more readers/clicks? This story isn’t novel at all. More likely they’re getting some payola from Julien’s agent to juice his arb numbers. MLBTR is now a shill site.

    Reply
  11. K Kr

    2 years ago

    Despite his slight slide, per his AB’s as an “Emergency rookie call up,” 3x, memory serving, he’d have, at minimum, 25+ homers for the season, under normal circumstances. Falvey and Levine have to figure out the long term gameplan with their middle IF’ers, quickly. These are the jokers, it’s not the ballplayers.

    Reply

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