The Padres are on the shortlist for the league’s most disappointing team in 2023. They came up shy of the postseason despite a star-studded roster that entered the year with championship aspirations. They’ll make another run at competing next season, albeit with newfound payroll questions that suggest they’ll probably lose the presumptive NL Cy Young winner and their elite closer to free agency.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Manny Machado, 3B: $337MM through 2033 (including $10MM signing bonus due by Dec. 1)
- Fernando Tatis Jr., RF: $317MM through 2034
- Xander Bogaerts, SS: $250MM through 2033
- Joe Musgrove, RHP: $80MM through 2027
- Yu Darvish, RHP: $78MM through 2028
- Jake Cronenworth, 1B: $78MM through 2030
- Robert Suarez, RHP: $36MM through 2027 (includes opt-out after ’25)
- Ha-Seong Kim, 2B: $10MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 mutual option)
- Seth Lugo, RHP: $7.5MM player option
- Matt Carpenter, DH: $5.5MM player option
Option Decisions
- Team holds two-year, $32MM option on RHP Nick Martinez; if club declines, Martinez holds two-year, $16MM player option
- Team holds two-year, $32MM option on RHP Michael Wacha; if club declines, Wacha has respective $6.5MM, $6MM and $6MM player options through 2026
- RHP Seth Lugo holds $7.5MM player option
- DH Matt Carpenter holds $5.5MM player option
Other Financial Commitments
- Owe $24.5MM to Red Sox through 2025 as condition of Eric Hosmer trade
2024 financial commitments (assuming Wacha/Lugo opt out, Carpenter/Martinez opt in): $134.76MM
Total future commitments (assuming Wacha/Lugo opt out, Carpenter/Martinez opt in): $1.232 billion
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Juan Soto (5.134): $33MM
- Tim Hill (5.112): $2.4MM
- Scott Barlow (5.030): $7.1MM
- Trent Grisham (4.060): $4.9MM
- Austin Nola (4.045): $2.35MM
- Adrian Morejón (3.140): $900K
Non-tender candidates: Hill, Nola, Morejón
Free Agents
- Blake Snell, Josh Hader, Seth Lugo (assuming opt-out), Gary Sánchez, Garrett Cooper, Ji Man Choi, Rich Hill, Luis García, Jurickson Profar, Drew Pomeranz
A late-September tear against mostly bad teams nudged the Padres past .500. That’s no consolation for a club that entered the year as co-favorites in the NL West alongside the Dodgers and a trendy World Series pick. San Diego had bolstered last year’s NLCS squad with another massive contract, signing Xander Bogaerts for 11 years and $280MM. With Fernando Tatis Jr. returning from last year’s wrist surgery/PED suspension, everything was supposed to come together in 2023.
If the team ever really clicked, it didn’t happen until they were buried in the standings. As was the case two years ago, the Padres’ disappointing finish came with reports of internal strife. In 2021, clubhouse discord contributed to San Diego’s decision to dismiss manager Jayce Tingler. This year, reports from The Athletic and the San Diego Union-Tribune cast renewed questions about the locker room — with a reported rift between president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and second-year manager Bob Melvin drawing the most attention.
As the season wound down, there was some question about whether the Preller – Melvin relationship had become untenable. Ownership clearly doesn’t believe that to be the case. After an end-of-season meeting between Preller, Melvin and chairman Peter Seidler, the parties agreed to keep the leadership structure in place. Seidler released a statement expressing his “full support” for that duo; Preller confirmed two days later that Melvin is “going to be (the) manager going forward.”
There could be far more turnover with the roster itself. Kevin Acee of the Union-Tribune reported last month that the Friars were shooting for a player payroll in the $200MM range for next season, pointing to a need to comply with MLB’s debt service ratio. That’d likely keep them in the upper third of the league but represents a notable cut. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Friars finished this season with a payroll just under $250MM and had an estimated luxury tax number near the $293MM final penalization threshold.
That’ll make things difficult for Preller and his front office as they try to more effectively balance the roster. San Diego’s player spending is a little more manageable than fans might expect given their repeated top-of-the-market strikes. Machado ($13MM) and Tatis ($11MM) are playing on relatively light salaries as part of backloaded extensions. (Machado is also owed a $10MM signing bonus this December 1, although it’s not clear if the Padres consider that part of their approximate $200MM calculus for next season.) The Friars’ 11-year commitment to Bogaerts meant his annual salary is a fairly palatable $25MM.
San Diego’s payroll opening the offseason will be defined by a handful of upcoming options decisions. Matt Carpenter is going to exercise a $5.5MM player provision; Seth Lugo will decline a $7.5MM option in search of a multi-year deal.
The Friars have matching two-year options at $16MM annually on Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez. Given their reported payroll situation, it seems likely they’ll decline their end of both provisions. It’s not an unreasonable amount for Wacha in isolation, but it’d be harder to justify if San Diego has somewhat limited spending room. Wacha would subsequently decline the first of three player options valued in the $6-6.5MM range; Martinez would have a two-year option at $8MM annually that’ll be an interesting call.
If Carpenter and Martinez opt in while Wacha and Lugo test free agency, the Padres’ 2024 salary commitments would check in around $135MM (not counting Machado’s bonus but including the $12+MM they’re sending to the Red Sox on the Eric Hosmer deal). That doesn’t account for a massive arbitration class. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a record-setting $33MM salary for Juan Soto in his final season of eligibility. Scott Barlow and Trent Grisham are projected at a combined $12MM. That puts the organization at roughly $180MM before considering outside additions. Unless plans of payroll cuts are dramatically overstated, they’re not likely to make a legitimate run at Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger or Yoshinobu Yamamoto the way they might have in previous offseasons.
Given that financial picture, it’s natural that opposing fanbases have speculated about the possibility of a second blockbuster Soto trade in as many years. San Diego doesn’t have to move him. It’s possible to accommodate a $200MM payroll with their existing commitments and Soto’s projected salary. Doing so would require an austere offseason, though, potentially paired with a trade of another notable but less impactful player or two. San Diego hasn’t suggested any plans to shop Soto but hasn’t taken a trade off the table either.
With one season of remaining control, Soto’s trade value is markedly lower than it was at the 2022 deadline. The Padres wouldn’t get near the level of talent — five young players headlined by MacKenzie Gore, James Wood and CJ Abrams — which they sent to the Nationals to acquire him.
The Mookie Betts deal is the most obvious precedent for a superstar traded before his final arbitration season. The Red Sox received five years of club control on a solid regular (Alex Verdugo), a borderline Top 100 prospect (Jeter Downs) and a mid-level prospect (Connor Wong) while also offloading around $48MM on the David Price contract. The deal didn’t work out for Boston. Verdugo never developed into more than a solid player, while Downs barely reached the majors. Yet it’s a general benchmark for the Padres if they were to consider moving Soto. They presumably wouldn’t also attach an underwater contract, so topping a package headlined by two highly-regarded but not elite controllable talents should be viable.
It’s arguable whether that’s preferable to simply keeping Soto for his final arbitration season. The Padres would get one more year in which he anchors the lineup. They could deal him at the deadline if they’re again underperforming, while he’d clearly receive the qualifying offer next offseason if they kept him on the roster. Even if they don’t anticipate re-signing him — Preller unsurprisingly suggested they’ll reengage with Soto’s reps at the Boras Corporation this winter — a trade isn’t inevitable.
Keeping Soto would limit their flexibility elsewhere on the roster. San Diego has arguably the best group of impending free agents of any team. Blake Snell is likely to be named NL Cy Young a couple days before hitting the market. Josh Hader has a good chance of topping the $102MM contract record for relievers which Edwin Díaz established last winter.
Even with their payroll questions, the Padres will obviously make a qualifying offer to each of Snell and Hader. There’s no chance either player accepts a one-year deal, which would entitle San Diego to modest compensation in next year’s draft. As a luxury tax payor, the Friars would receive a pick between the fourth and fifth round for each player if they sign elsewhere.
Watching both depart appears likely. The Padres seemed to preemptively prepare for Hader’s departure last offseason with a stunning five-year, $46MM commitment to Robert Suarez. Between the hard-throwing righty and the trade deadline acquisition of Barlow, they’ll have options for the ninth inning. While losing Hader would be a huge blow to any bullpen, the Padres should have other priorities.
None is bigger than the rotation. San Diego’s starting staff somewhat quietly led the majors in ERA and finished fifth in strikeout rate. That’s in large part thanks to their impending free agents, who were arguably their three top starters. Snell was utterly dominant from June onwards. Wacha (3.22) and Lugo (3.57) each turned in sub-4.00 ERA showings over 130+ frames. Lugo would be a realistic qualifying offer candidate if the Padres were operating at their typical spending capacity. Given the expected constraints, the chance he accepts a one-year offer worth around $20.5MM and the mid-round pick they’d receive if he walks, they’ll probably opt not to make the offer.
Those possible departures leave the Friars with only two locks for the starting staff. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish ended this season on the injured list. They’re expected to be ready for Spring Training. If Martinez returns, he could have a clearer rotation opportunity than he’s had in the last two years, when he has spent most of his time as a multi-inning reliever. The Padres have the option to retain Wacha, although a $16MM salary is probably too much of a commitment to lock in before free agency even gets underway. Neither Pedro Avila nor Matt Waldron pitched well enough to secure a spot in the Opening Day five.
The Padres need to bring in two or three starters. Options toward the lower tiers of free agency include Michael Lorenzen, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, James Paxton, Martín Pérez and Hyun Jin Ryu. Luis Severino is a candidate for a one-year pillow contract. Swingman Jakob Junis could market himself as a starter in search of a two-year deal in the range of what the Friars offered Lugo last winter. The Padres have been aggressive in targeting players from Asian professional leagues. Perhaps they’ll inquire on former Nationals righty Erick Fedde, who turned in a 2.13 ERA over 28 starts in his first season in South Korea.
They’ll likely bring in at least one arm via trade. Paul Blackburn, Spencer Turnbull, Adrian Houser and Cal Quantrill are among affordable arbitration-eligible hurlers who could be attainable. None of those pitchers would cost an immense prospect return. San Diego still has a few names at the top of the farm system (e.g. Ethan Salas, Jackson Merrill, Robby Snelling) whom they could ostensibly dangle if an impact starter with multiple seasons of club control (perhaps Logan Gilbert or Dylan Cease) came available.
San Diego could also deal off the big league team to find more balance on the roster. Barlow’s $7.1MM projected salary makes him a possible candidate, although it’d leave the Padres with very little in the way of setup options to pave the way to Suarez. Grisham is projected at just under $5MM and down to two seasons of control. He’s an excellent defensive center fielder but a .191/.300/.347 hitter since the start of 2022.
Given how well Tatis acclimated to right field defensively, the Friars could consider moving him to center and shopping Grisham. They’d have to bring in another corner bat opposite Soto at that point. It’s not a robust free agent class for hitters. Ramón Laureano, Harold Ramírez and Dylan Carlson are among the trade possibilities if the Padres wanted to search for more offensive upside than Grisham provides without taking on notable salary. Were the Padres to move Soto, they’d have to take a bigger swing in the outfield — whether a trade candidate like Anthony Santander or a free agent pursuit of KBO star Jung Hoo Lee.
Their last pursuit of a hitter from South Korea worked out excellently. Ha-Seong Kim is headed into the final season of a four-year, $28MM free agent deal. He’s a plus defender who can move around the infield and has hit .256/.338/.391 over the last two years. Kim would be an in-demand trade candidate if San Diego made him available. Between his affordability and a dreadful free agent class for middle infielders, Kim would be the Padres’ most desirable realistic trade candidate aside from Soto.
Dealing Kim would open up second base for Jake Cronenworth, who is miscast at first. Yet it’d also subtract one of the Padres’ best position players without clearing a huge chunk of payroll space. While Preller and his staff probably won’t foreclose the possibility entirely, the price would be high.
If they hold Kim, he’d likely return to the keystone. Machado and Bogaerts are the presumptive left side infield. Machado could be delayed early in the season as he recovers from elbow surgery, but he’s expected back early enough in the season the Padres don’t have to worry about the hot corner. Bogaerts recent conceded he might not be much longer for shortstop (link via Kevin Acee of the Union-Tribune). That raises the possibility of a position swap for Bogaerts and Kim but doesn’t materially change the infield construction.
The Padres should bring in some more offensive punch for the first base/DH mix. Last winter’s signings of Carpenter and Nelson Cruz didn’t pan out, nor did deadline acquisitions of Ji Man Choi and Garrett Cooper. With the latter two headed for free agency, the Padres should take another swing at first base. Brandon Belt could be a free agent target, while Rowdy Tellez is a non-tender possibility. Adding a bat-first player would deepen the bench while freeing Cronenworth for a multi-position role.
If the Padres were to take a bigger free agent swing, Mitch Garver would be a strong on-paper fit. The Ranger slugger is a primary DH who can catch on occasion. The Padres will likely bring in a complement to Luis Campusano behind the dish while non-tendering Austin Nola. If Garver proves too expensive and/or receives a qualifying offer from Texas, Tom Murphy could be an affordable “Garver-lite” free agent target.
San Diego has one of the wider-open outlooks for any team. They’re likely to lose a couple marquee free agents but still have plenty of star talent at the top of the roster. They’re certainly not about to rebuild. Yet next year’s roster could look quite different from the 2023 version, especially on the pitching staff. The Padres have been one of the sport’s most unpredictable teams throughout Preller’s tenure. That’s not going to change this year.
In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Padres-specific chat on 10-11-23. Click here to view the transcript.
No need to keep Tim Hill just leave him at a bus stop in La Mesa and wish him the best of luck.
It shocks me how some people can have such a lack of pride in their appearance.
What would please you, that he get a facelift like Steve Garvey did?
Amazing how people can jump to judge a guy so negatively, clearly knowing so little about his integrity and the path he’s been on to the majors. Such as 2023 nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award
I don’t like it when people go out of their way to be hideous.
That’s very small of you.
tl
“It shocks me how some people can have such a lack of pride in their appearance.”
In my experience, people who think like this are super insecure about themselves.
“I don’t like it when people go out of their way to be hideous”
And I don’t like it when people go out of their way to be rude
Difference is that I don’t complain about it, I just quit listening to them
Muted
You really care what somebody else looks like?
Lol
I care what baseball players look like. I prefer not to have to watch baseball players who look like they stumbled into the ballpark from the local homeless encampment.
You’re ******* out, Kenny Powers!
You’re like the last guy on Earth that should talk about this! Lol
Post a link to your glamour shots.
I’d be willing to bet you try hard to look as bad as you do.
So, you just want to watch baseball players that you find attractive?
Look at Hedonism Bot over here. “Jomby! I only want the most beautiful boys playing stickball in my presence.”
> It shocks me how some people
> can have such a lack of pride
> in their appearance.
> I don’t like it when people
> go out of their way to be hideous.
—————————
I don’t blame you for thinking that. Society is obsessed with image. You have simply become adult skin and bones stretched over your childish views. Your inability to formulate your own conclusions on what is morally right or wrong is very disappointing, though.
When your time is up, I will greet you in the Underverse and torment you until the end of time.
Let’s punch down on the homeless and make them the butt of a joke. Such empathy and compassion.
It’ll be interesting what they do this offseason because they could go the Mets route and retool, but they are also just a few pieces away from winning it all.
I still find that tatis contract unfair, they lost a season he’s making only $7M due to PEDs, really should be the average payout/season of the contract rather than what he’s earning because he still has so much more to make.
No, the Padres are not a couple pieces from winning it all. They have too many egos in that locker room and they’re losing Snell. Padres are the Mets of the west.
I’m going to agree with both of you. The Pads are a LONG ways from being a good team year in and year out, but under the new, lower bar playoff format, ALL but the most futile teams(A’s, Royals etc..)are just one good off-season away from taking that 3rd wild card spot and making the playoffs.
A long way from being a good team? The back half of your statement makes the most sense. They have a solid core that will keep them a good team for many years. If Miami and AZ can get a WC with smoke and mirrors not asking much from Pads in ’24. Here’s what they have in their favor. They are in a hotbed of baseball fandom and in SD literally the only game in town that turns out even for poor teams. They have dedicated owners with a desire to do what it takes to win and one of the best ballparks. Yes was disappointing ’23 but plenty left in the tank for ’24 and beyond
Bozzmania 100%.
I thought the Angels were the Mets of the West?
The Angels are the Angles of Los Angels. Of Anaheim.
The angels are in a class of their own. It’s not possible for a second franchise to be that terrible
The Rockies have entered the chat!
rs
“the Padres are not a couple pieces from winning it all”
You’re right
They probably don’t need to add anything to have a shot
Padres can win it all with the pieces on the roster today. Or they can add as most intelligent people believe they will and be even closer to winning.
Padres pitching, hitting and defense were 6th in MLB last season. That is with several key people not playing up to their capabilities.
The Padres owner has said they are committed to putting a championship team on the field in 2024. They will add players. Expect it.
Lee from Korea. Possibly Yamamoto from Japan. At least one of Wacha and Lugo will return. Martinez almost certainly so. The clubhouse cancer that was Hader will be replaced. So will Snell.
The team you watched destroy the league in September/October will get better.
They will be undermined by the clubhouse dysfunction between Melvin and Preller. Expect them to miss the playoffs in 2024 and then, finally, there will be a house cleaning.
A dysfunction that exists only in your mind. It has been shown to be non-existent. But go on back to your bad TV show world and believe what you want.
The house cleaning that will happen will be all the mutes of your trolling account.
websoulsurfer
Padres can win it all with the pieces on the roster today.
==========================
The issue that their roster today won’t be their roster a month from now. If Snell, Hader, Lugo, Wacha & Martinez all leave/opt out, the SDP chances of winning it all are slim.
JB
I’d have to spend more time inspecting the roster, but off the top of my head, I’d think that even after those guys leave, this is still a wild card contender. And a WC team can definitely win it all
I think they will be a WC contender no matter what, but I cannot see much playoff success with a rotation of Musgove, Darvish and a #3 to be named later.
Musgrove is terrific, but is coming off an injury and Darvish is good but no longer a #1, and maybe not a #2. You need ace performances in the playoffs.
Web, I liked your post because of paragraphs 2 and beyond. I don’t think the Padres can win it all without bringing in at least one good starter. Remember that they added Lugo and Wacha to be #5 and #6 in their rotation. Don’t go into 2024 expecting them to be a #3 or you will be disappointed.
I agree Joe. The Padres have to go into the offseason looking to add a #2-#3 starter to their rotation while keeping 2 of Lugo, Wacha, Martinez.
BIL, I am sure that is the goal. They are one of the favorites to land Yamamoto and they are serious enough that Preller went to Japan to see him play himself.
The FA is deep so there are other options if they miss on Yamamoto. Wacha and Lugo are very good back of the rotation options, but they both come with innings limitations. Lugo just threw the most innings of his career and Wacha is an injury certainty every season. They most certainly would take those things into account.
Lets try winning the west first before talking about “it all”
How’s that working for the Dodgers?
WC teams win WS.
Not the point fellas, lets put the horse back in front of the cart here but
I digress
C&C
Remind me how many of the last, say, 10 World Series winners won their division
The following wild card teams have won the World Series:
the Florida Marlins, in 1997 and 2003;
the Anaheim Angels, in 2002;
the Boston Red Sox, in 2004;
the St. Louis Cardinals, in 2011;
the San Francisco Giants, in 2014; and
the Washington Nationals, in 2019.
Division winners that won the World Series in the last 10 years:
2022
2021
2020
2018
2017*
2016
2015
2013
db
So, it appears to me that it’s not every year, correct?
Nobody’s getting Logan Gilbert !!!!!
If SD looks to move Kim. M’s would be a good fit with their young pitching and need for a 2B. Woo and Rojas for Kim or straight up Miller for Kim?
With the Padres set to open 2024 in Seoul, trading Kim would be a weird move. But on the other hand, the schedule should not prevent the Padres from making the moves they feel are necessary. I would not be in favor of trading Kim.
Kim is one year out from FA so his trade value is going to drop like a rock with every day they don’t trade him (and that’s IF he sustains his production which is not self-evident) and once opening day passes an acquiring team loses the right to QO him which will negatively affect what they are willing to offer. But the opening series in Seoul probably would prevent the Padres from trading him until after that has passed unless a team offers them something outrageous.
AJ didn’t trade Hader or Snell Kim and Soto will walk away.
@theleendaryharambe – Kim isn’t a free agent until 2027, he only has 1 year guaranteed with a mutual option for 2025, but he still has an additional year of arbitration. So they would be trading for at least 3 years of Kim.
No. Kim is not eligible for arbitration. He will be a free agent outright after 2024 unless both sides pick up the mutual option (which never happens). This has already been established.
The Padres do have the right to QO him if they don’t trade him.
The mutual option is for $1. It’s just a formality. Arbitration doesn’t apply to him.
Kim is a solid player that’s cheap. I don’t see the benefit of trading him. What kind of return can they expect in trade? How much would that return improve the team, if at all? For a team with salary concerns it seems to me Kim is exactly the kind of player to hang on to and try to extend.
If you extend him he’ll no longer be cheap
If they don’t extend him how will they find a cheap replacement that comes close to replacing his production?
Cronenworth, Bogaerts, Tatis and Jackson Merrill.
They’re not as good a team replacing him with any of those guys. Tatis is much better in RF than he was on the IF. IMO Kim’s flexibility makes him preferable to Cronenworth, who isn’t that good at SS, and doesn’t steal bases like Kim. Merrill has only advanced to high-A. And relying on prospects to become better than league average is a fool’s errand.
If Soto is not extended by the winter meetings, he will be traded at the winter meetings. And I say to the Mariners for Ty Adcock, Jarred Kelenic, Bryan Woo and Prelander Berroa. That’s a new LF, a new #3 SP, and two new high leverage RP’s. Who says no? Probably the Mariners, but they are under pressure to do something to help that offense.
@C’bad that’s too much for one season of Soto. You would have to halve the ask there, at least.
Merrill has been in aa for awhile now
You’re right, but I wouldn’t say “for awhile”. Fangraphs had him at high-A so that’s what I quoted. He spent most of 2023 at high-A and played only 46 games at AA. He’s only 20 now, so he isn’t really a consideration for SD’s 2B gig until mid-season 2025 at the earliest.
That’s literally not true, every tanking systems has a timeline for him of 2024.
Chances are great he will be in the big next year. It’s just whether it will be it to start the year or later in the season.
Taking your word for it, everybody except Fangraphs, that is…
If he does debut next season, I’d guess he won’t be ready. 46 games in AA, zero in AAA, and only 21 years old, is not a recipe for success.
Not that every one is the same, but look at Anthony Volpe. A year older, also with a 60 FV, but with 110 games at AA and 22 at AAA, debuted last season and provided production 16% below league average.
That’s not a great replacement for Kim. He needs to be developed along side Kim and Cronenworth, not as a replacement for either one.
Merrill what’s been seen as a player mature above his years. His limited time in aa is because of the injury las t year which caused him to slow his development. If he isn’t traded you will see him in a padres uniform next year.
@C’Bad Jeff Nope. Trading for Soto didn’t have extending him in mind.
@Ignorant Son-of-a-b It’s not enough. What people need to understand is that the Padres gave up CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and James Wood for Soto.
Woo/Miller straight up for Kim is a bit much since theres only 1 guaranteed year left on Kim’s deal, but I agree Kim is a nice target for the M’s. If SD are dumping salary I’d be down to trade young pitching for Manny+Kim, Ms taking on salary. Both teams probably walk away from that though
Padres are playing in the Korea series next season and are favorites to land Lee from the KBO this offseason when he is posted. They are not trading Kim.
As Seidler has said, the owner of the team and the guy who decides what the payroll will be, the Padres will be staying the course in terms of payroll.
No, they are cutting payroll down to $200 million.
We shall see re: overall payroll but I agree they won’t trade Kim. I don’t personally think they should even think about any trading their stars (yet).
I love Kim and would hate to see him traded, but if they get a great deal for him why does some two game series in Korea change everything? I seriously doubt that move is going to bring Padres a ridiculous sum of money.
Says only you and Kevin Acee
Its not about a 2 game series, its about an entire season of sponsorships and fan interest coming out of Korea and the Korean community in the US.
When Kim arrived in Korea after the Padres season was over there were more than 200 members of the media that greeted him at the airport.
Manny and Kim to M’s for who? I’d make that trade.
Depends how much of Manny’s contract goes with him. Assuming M’s take on 100%, I’d say it starts with Miller and/or Woo + pieces. Medicals may come into play. May just come down to how both teams value Manny as a player going forward. The bat is trending down but I think he’s got a few more all-star caliber seasons in him. I’m also not certain how bad SD wants to cut payroll. This would be a pretty uncomfortable deal to make for both teams.
Why would the Padres pay to dump Manny one year after extending him????
I would want Tatis over Manny. Will the Padres please trade Tatis Jr. to the Mariners? I would like that very much.
I’d move Machado and Cronenworth for prospects
I was just playing he’s not going anywhere plus isn’t he part owner of that MLS team in San Diego?
Who exactly is trading prospects for either of those dudes at this point?
Yes he is.
Soto to M’s?
Would rather have Tatis but could live with Soto. Are you hearing this as a thing ??
I think that would be a bad move. Soto is a once in a generation bat. You don’t get a shot at many of those. Not many 155-160 OPS+ bats out there.
If the Padres did trade him the fans of the other team would not be happy. Look what Betts cost the Dodgers. Two highly regarded prospects including one that had put up a 3.0 WAR in 106 games his first year in the majors plus a Top 50 prospect in Downs, and Wong who was the Dodgers #14 overall prospect.
Then take into consideration that the Dodgers took on $48 million of Price’s deal when they knew he would not pitch in 2020 and they could be reasonably certain that he would never be more than a swing man, mostly a reliever, after that. $24 million per season for a mediocre reliever.
So the Padres will want more, likely much more, for Soto.
The Mariners do not have the MLB ready prospects, so at least 2 players would have to come off the MLB roster. Woo and Kelenic are the only two that seem to fit the bill. Then a couple of other good prospects that are further away. Not sure that the Mariners are a good fit for a trade for Soto.
@Pads Thanks for breaking it down like that. Helped me understand.
Yeah I agree they are not a good fit for Soto. They are very unlikely to make a move on a rental. I don’t think any team will be able to extend Soto. Pads should hang onto all these guys anyways and make a run.
Who? Machado?
Nope. The M’s are giving Bliss a chance to win the spot.
Machado headed to the 60 day IL. He’s decided to go ahead with the lobotomy.
Machado spent the second half leaking stories about his numerous injuries and making sure everyone knew he played at less than 100%.
Your parents must be proud of both of you. It’s not ‘leaking stories’ when it’s discussed publicly and results in corrective surgery.
Lobotomy, dude. Manny is getting his lobotomy. Finally.
We can all tell you have already had one.
Are there any websites that have more mentally ill weirdos than this comment section?
Check out the Pro Hockey Rumors
yahoo comment sections would like a word.
You mean like Pads Fans and his half-dozen burner accounts?
They’ll keep Soto, sign Ohtani, sign Nola, Gray, Belli and still miss the playoffs
I had a happy tear the first half of your post then I gots sad
Acee lol
Quoting acee like it’s gospal. Preller in an interview on radio said he does the opposite of what acee says.
Writing a book report with Acee’s budget as the underlying basis. Is this website just for lowest common denominator [at the same time by the lowest common denominator]?
I saw that interview. He literally said we hear what acee says and we do the opposite.
Was that the one with Ben and Woods around the ASG?
Why does every scenario written about them sound like “Yeah they’re going to trade 2 of these 5 players, who put up noticeably positive value, and they don’t have a clear solution to replacing that production, but shedding salary will make them better.”
… No it won’t
2024 outlook = 3rd place in NL West again
Why in the world do you continue to parrot Acee’s since debunked articles? Even Acee put out articles that countered his earlier articles that you linked here. STOP! If the writer himself says they are BS, don’t share them again.
#1 – No internal strife. Soto built a house next door to Machado. Players are regularly seen out in Gaslamp together. The problem may have been that some players were pressing, trying to do too much all by themselves as Machado, Tatis, and Soto have said, but no internal strife. Many said they were having too much fun together early in the season. It cannot be both.
#2 – No strife between Preller and Melvin. They freaking said so. You would rather believe people that are not part of what is going on over the people INVOLVED? WTF?
#3 – Acee was shown to be WRONG about the debt service BS and about needing to lower payroll. YOUR publication reported on that.
Padres are in talks to extend Soto. He likes it in SD and on the team. No, Preller did not say they were shopping him. He said if approached, they will listen. See the trade FOR Soto. Most of those prospects would have been untouchable in the fan’s eyes.
Lugo is NOT a QO viable candidate. This is the first season he has EVER started and pitched this many innings. Why even try to float that kind of crap?
ONLY Snell and Hader are QO candidates. Both will get one.
The Padres are favorites to land both Lee and Yamamoto.
Padres do not need a 1B. They have one. They need him to rebound. Neither Belt nor Tellez are a reasonable replacement for Cronenworth. The Padres will probably pick up a DH/1B like Cooper, who put up a 102 OPS+ for the Padres, to platoon with Carpenter.
Sanchez is the most likely catcher to share the catching position for the Padres. Garver is going to be extremely expensive for a player that cannot stay healthy.
So much more to say. Will leave that for another post
This is spot on, yet the writers will continue to spread fake news.
Media should all know by now Seidler is all in and has said there is no turning back. Every year people end up being shocked by what the padres did instead of accepting that’s who they now are.
Acee does know that but his agenda is otherwise. It’s also concerning that Acee speaks for Padres as far as mlbtr is concerned.
Anyone who has been a padres fan for more than 5 minutes knows when acee speaks expect the opposite. Now I can’t expect the writers here to know that but they could have at least write the article on what if what Seidler said a month ago was true and payroll will be around the same. That drastically changes the padres 2024 off-season outlook. Which has more weight as reporter who is always wrong or the owner who has spent spent spent.
Welcome to SD’s version of the NYY’s Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman.
@Pads Fans You sound very adamant in your positions here. This will be interesting to check later to see who was right. Why are you so convinced the Padres are #1 landing spot for Yamamoto? Do you not realize every other high spending club is interested in him as well? Particularly Mets, Yanks, Red Sox, Cubs at least? But you are very adamant that Padres are getting Yamamoto huh?? I would love to have your crystal ball (and certainty about everything.) Also, Why would this journalist Acee just make up crap and lie about everything the Padres are doing? You would think he would like to stay employed by writing factual articles. So he’s a disinformation merchant just to screw with us ??? Hmmm, again, your adamant thinking & 100% faith in your magical crystal ball is curious.
Acee is always wrong the paper he writes for doesn’t care about being right any longer. They just care about generating clicks.
Last year acee said the padres has 5m to spend and they spent 411m.
If you hear anything payroll related that comes from anyone other than Seidler or preller you should just discount it. It almost feels like they don’t want people to know they are going to spend until they do.
As far as Yamamoto I have no idea if he is coming to San Diego. I know preller has personally scouted him and preller does fall in love with players and to all out for them. I also know preller when he was asked about keeping snell he said the padres have high interest in having a pitcher like him next year. Found it a little weird since he didn’t say snell he said like. Which maybe he thinks of Yamamoto as a like snell guy.
Yes, we guess as a Padres fan, there is enough money in the world that allow you to purchase every high priced free agent that might like nice weather…..now their chanting for Yamamoto…done deal as Padres fans chant…..intelligently though as you stated there are a bunch of other clubs including the West champion Dodgers, and the rebuilding Giants who can afford him as well and offer great weather too…..and after them the Cubs, Yankees, Mets (sort but nobody is going to outbid Steve Cohen if he wants him on the club), Red Sox, Toronto, etc….. after all, the Padres with all this stabled talent were an 82 win club that had to work very hard to get to 82……..LOL
Padres are one of the favorites for Yamamoto. They have the money, Darvish, and Preller went to see him play in person. One of only a few GM’s that did so. One of those GMs, Eppler, is no longer a GM.
The Padres are THE favorite to land Lee. It would be a surprise if he is posted and does not end up in San Diego.
Its pretty simple why Acee makes stuff up. It drives clicks to his articles. People in San Diego have been commenting on it all year and whenever he goes on local sports radio they call him out on it. It has been consistent since the newspaper was sold. I am not the only one here saying it.
I am occasionally wrong. When I am, point it out. I doubt I am about this unless Seidler passes away. Acee doesn’t make the decisions about payroll, Seidler does. Acee has been shown to be wrong about multiple points in his articles like debt service violations. He even posted articles that contradicted his earlier articles. Last season he wrote articles saying the Padres absolutely had to lower payroll so of course they increased it.
apparently (out of the mouth of Seidler to all Padres fans), Seidler has it set up that when he dies the team will remain a top tier payroll team, with one singular goal that is to compete for a WS every single year. So even if he passes away, Acee is wrong
Nice post pad fan !!!
Don’t take it too personal. It’s part of American culture to “HATE HATE HATE” when anyone tries something different that revolves around spending money. They line up around the block, come out of the woodwork, repeat lies- and never stop hating ! It just feels good to them.
The greatest loss to pads, and good reason to fix budget, is the loss of competition picks of hader and snell bc they are in the luxury threshold. They lost out on 2 top 40 picks. That’s a tremendous loss when you draft as good as padres do !
They didn’t lose picks for those players. They just get moved down to the 4th round.
Make signings of Snell and Soto priority #1. If Soto doesn’t get a deal then trade him at the deadline. He’ll have a big year next season. Keep the youth. We’re gonna compete next year. Even with the new DH the Dodgers will have.
Snell will walk. Get a QO on his way out the door. Kim is who I would be focused on extending. See if you are contending near the deadline before trading or extending Soto.
Soto will cost more to extend the longer you wait.
Probably. Although not sure how much more he could cost. Already going to be more than $450 million.
The Padres can’t afford to extend Soto.
Lmfao. Padres couldn’t afford Hosmer, Machado the first time, Darvish, Machado the 2nd time, or Tatis.
Guess what? A billionaire owns the team and if he wants to spend his money he can afford anyone he wants.
Friend of mine thinks Seidler is terminally ill but is keeping it hush hush and that is why he is spending his money like a drunken sailor. Was he the one who made the comment about how you can’t take it with you?
Probably closer to $500 million over 14 years for Soto.
Yeah he is a two time cancer survivor and just had another major medical procedure. Public isn’t aware of what his last procedure was for but one could easily guess it’s cancer related since he has had it twice. He looks frail for the last couple of year. He is the one that said he kind of likes spending money and that you can’t take it with you. So yeah I’m sure his health to go along with his desire to win a Championship while he is still alive is playing a factor into his large spending habits.
I also don’t expect that to change this offseason despite some reports of them cutting back.
I think you are correct that Snell will be allowed to walk. He will be looking at a 6 year deal in the Rodon range and with just one good season as a Padres that is far too much money.
The Padres are already in negotiations with Soto on a negotiation, so it seems that extending his contract is their highest priority. Kim is undoubtedly high on their list of priorities, just not higher than a 24-year-old putting up historic numbers.
I think you are right. Padres will go all out to extend Soto, I think they will try and keep Kim if the price is right. I don’t think he is a blank check player like Soto.
Snell walks unless his market isn’t as strong as it would seem.
Plenty of pitchers out there to replace him with. He is a boras client so he will linger on the market longer than others. So the padres can always come back to him if they miss on other targets.
That Snell is a Boras client and might linger on the market is something I didn’t think of. I doubt it depresses his price. Boras always gets top dollar for his clients.
Snell has said he loves San Diego and is a fan favorite. I am sure the Padres will make him an offer, but I believe that he is going to sign for in excess of $180 million over 7 years. A bare minimum will be 6/160-170.
The Padres seem from all reports locally to be all in on Soto. 24 years old. 157 OPS+ for his career. Played all 162 games this season. Works continually on his craft. He is going to be expensive, but that has not stopped Seidler before.
Snell can walk should of traded him when AJ had the chance. Soto is getting traded at the trade deadline.
Not if the team is contending.
Trevor Bauer to the Padres. I could see it.
Well, his ego certiantly wouldn’t be out of place on that roster.
Tranquilo hijo
MLB isn’t into BDSM.
Bad look…..
What will never happen for $200.
What is “BaseballisLife admitting that Manny Machado never said he would never sign with a New York team?”
How cute. You created a new account because everyone muted your other one.
One of me is far too much for you apparently.
If I was Padres I’d be looking to extend Kim and if successful, move Cronenworth. 2B market is bleak and Kim is younger and far more talented. The little bit of success Cronenworth has had at the plate was almost assuredly bolstered by the other talent in that lineup. And unlike the other players does not have the star power nationally. Both from a business and baseball sense he would be the one I’d look to move.
I agree! Kim is younger and trending upwards. Cronenworth, has regressed every year! I was shocked that he was extended but then again Preller has made several stupid signings/extensions (Pomeranz, Darvish, Machado, Boegarts, etc.) over the years! Granted Boegarts was around his career average but the Padres’ already have Kim and Merrill should be ready in 2024. It used to be that Free Agents were to fill a void on the team.
Well, that’s one way to look at it. The way is what happens to Croneworth’s value if the Padres DON’T extend him. He’d still make a bundle in arbitration (because that’s how that player-stacked system works), but he’d be worth perhaps as much as $180M+, as a capable infielder (SS/2B) and decent bat. Most probably see him merely as a utility bat. That’s not what he was at extension. That’s really what he’s never been. Cronenworth has also been moved defensively every year, and suffered some injuries. Also, the “sophomore slump” think is real, and baked into that $80+M cake considerations..
I’d say at present, the deal looks bad for the Padres, but his contract isn’t over yet. Due in part to his contract, and a whole LOT to his capabilities, I think the Padres keep him rather than trying to deal him, unless someone wants him as badly as 10 or 15 teams will want Kim, and take on his salary.
AJP has make some mistakes, for certain, but I don’t think you’re giving him enough credit in this extension. Yep, the Pads took a risk, but not without a realistice “reward” upside. Too early to make that call.
The way is what happens to Croneworth’s value if the Padres DON’T extend him. He’d still make a bundle in arbitration
========================
He is signed thru 2030.
Yep, because they extended him. The argument was that was a mistake Preller should have know better than to make, which I countered.
My statement probably should have read:
“The OTHER way to look at it is what happens to Cronenworth’s value if the Padres DIDN’T extend him.”
My syntax was confusing.
Sophomore slump? He’s 29 years old and just finished his 4th MLB season. Sorry but he’s overpaid with his current contract, nobody would give him $180M. He’s not very good defensively, and has ok power. And again it’s more than likely his #s are inflated due to talent in Padres lineup. Teams would much rather pitch to a guy like him opposed to Soto, Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, Kim. His #s being inflated really is not an opinion either, that is the whole premise of lineup protection. As for the extent he benefit, yes that is an opinion.
Sure he didn’t hit much in 2023, but not very good defensively?
He is a good defender but nobody is playing along his 80m owed let alone 180m. He needs to rebound offensively. Prob also need to be moved back to second.
Kim will play 2B and Cronenworth 1B in 2024. The Padres cannot move Cronenworth, so they will need to work with him to get back to at least what he was in 2022.
Nobody wants Cronenworth
Not sure how the Padres would be able to move Crone without eating his contract. That would be counterproductive right now. They are probably going to continue to play him at 1B and 2B. His positional versatility and good defense at multiple positions is valuable. Then work with him to bring his bat around.
His barrel rate has plummeted as his launch angle has increased. He needs to get back to being the line drive hitter that made him so valuable in 2020 and 2021.
Verdugo was an elite prospect. #35 overall and coming off a 3+ WAR season. That is elite. Downs was a top 50 prospect.
I am disappointed in this article Anthony. Your stuff is usually more well thought out and researched. This wasn’t.
Exactly a 3 war rookie with 5 more years of control is worth a ton. As you said downs was a better prospect at the time of the trade then one would think reading this. They made it sound like a couple of mid at best prospects and some cash.
More like two high end prospects and a lot of cash.
This unfortunately was a bad trade for the Red Sox so now the views on it are bad vs what it was at the time.
With a little research I’m sure he could have brought up the article wrote here about the trade at the time.
This whole article was just lazy.
But the Betts trade is exactly why teams (and fans) shouldn’t overvalue prospects. The career track of Verdugo and Downs is typical for other a lot of other guys. Plenty of guys have had great first seasons, but weren’t able to adjust, and most of the top 100 prospects never become even MLB league average players.
fangraphs.com/players/alex-verdugo/17027/stats?pos…
Alex Verdugo was not an elite prospect. There’s not 35 elite ones and fangraphs had him evaluated accurately. Fairly certain he was outside their top 50. FG had Dugie slapped with a 50 grade and they were dead on.
His ceiling was limited as a corner outfielder. He could hit but hasn’t doesn’t have great power. He’s never generated a 3fWAR season.
Downs was the higher upside player. He also carried more risk. Not an elite prospect. He busted hard though. It was unexpected that he was so overmatched against upper level arms.
BrianStrowman9, Good post. The only caveats for me being that there are plenty of guys who weren’t even a top 100 prospect that went on to play at an AS level.
Plus, teams aren’t looking at any of the publicly available prospect lists. They all have their own appraisals. It’s why some fans have a hard time understanding the prospect return on some trades.
Some teams like some players better than other teams do. Boston perhaps liked Verdugo more than they should. But projecting prospects is the hardest thing in building a roster. Every team has misses like Downs, and I can’t fault them for missing on him.
Verdugo was the #35 overall prospect in baseball entering the 2019 season mlb.com/prospects/2019/top100/ and then he put up a 3.0 WAR in 106 games, 61 of which he played in CF. That is an elite prospect. He didn’t play CF in Boston because they had one of the best CF in baseball at the time in JBJ.
Downs was a lower rated prospect and entered the 2020 season as the #44 rated prospect in baseball mlb.com/prospects/2020/top100/ Top 50 prospects are typically considered elite.
The biggest piece in that trade was the 48 mil the dodgers ate. Downs and verdugo were both over valued in the dodgers system. Verdugo was never elite, he may have just had a good season but if u can’t hit for power – u aren’t an elite corner outfielder.
Boston blew it in that trade !
Didn’t really matter what they got in return. Trading Betts was a mistake. Betts is a future HOF. Should have been the cornerstone of the Red Sox for the next decade regardless of how much he cost.
Considering the bad contract they were shipping out, getting a 3 WAR player with 5 seasons of control and a top 50 prospect plus another top prospect in the Dodgers system was a good return.
The writer gives way way too much stock into an article written by Kevin acee. Who has been wrong every single year when it comes to the padres payroll. If you want to write that there is some rumors the padres may cut payroll then okay. To write this all based on that rumor like it’s very likely is just bad writing. Especially as you state at the end the padres are very unpredictable. The last time the owner spoke about payroll it was just over a month ago and he said he expects payroll for next year to be around where it was this year. That carries way more weight then a report from a guy who is always wrong.
You could have done part of this write up based on if that was true and then part on if it’s not true. If it isn’t true and I think it’s likely not true then that drastically changes the padres offseason outlook.
Just lazy writing here.
Acee isn’t just wrong. He’s strongly negatively biased and makes sh#t up to support his grumpiness, either because SDUT told him to (conflict sells), or because of something personal (Preller peed on his lawn). I hope he doesn’t cover the Aztecs BB team, trashing them for not winning the national championship, but that would be a fitting next agenda for his miserable life..
True a lot of people saying since the paper was sold it’s becoming a paper written for gossip clicks.
Write lies and get clicks. Looks like it worked here.
Welcome to MLB sports-writing 2023. I’ve seen the same from the RS consistently, except Merloni and Pete.
Do you think owners always tell the truth? Seidler is lying.
We know you don’t what you are taking about. You have consistently trolled and been wrong every time.
Tell me where I’ve been wrong. Just make sure you use the right account this time.
Tell us where you have been correct. All you do is troll. So by definition you are wrong.
One of me is far too much for you apparently.
tsk tsk tsk. See? Only Pads Fans says “one of me is too much for you apparently.”
Do you think owners always lie? Seidler has been consistent and has followed through on what he has said. Every time.
I love this time of year, so much speculation. In reality, I think they keep Soto and keep the payroll higher than 200 million. I’d be surprised if close to half of the 2023 roster isn’t wearing another team’s jersey come opening day 2024…
Most of those contracts are awful. The Padres would be best served trading Soto and Kim, kick starting a hasty rebuild
Naaaaaah…
If they want to wave the white flag on 2024 before it’s even started then yeah
Kim is about as much as a “sure thing” that one can find in baseball. He’s still 27 years old, has a history of success with this bat and glove in the KBO, and just proved he has an MLB quality bat this year. His consistent success and progression tells the tale.
He’s also just about the best infielder/short stop in the majors. (Yeah, there’s some Padre “fan bias” there, but not much. He’s flat out outstanding at any infield position.)
Preller will either extend him or trade him, and the trade price would be off the charts. An interested team isn’t trading for a prospect, or one-year-possible-flash-in-the-pan. Again, Kim was a proven talent before he arrived the states. The only question was could he hit a major league fastball, and that question has been answered.
I’d hate to lose Kim, but I could imagine a scenerio where Preller dump’s Carpenter and Hosmer’s dead money, while picking up a quality major league bat or pitcher, and maybe a quality prospect, too. Guys as talented as Kim don’t grow on trees. They are difficult to find.
Problem is he only has one more year and they’re probably not trading him until after the Korea series at the absolute earliest which mean an acquiring team cannot QO him.
i doubt Kim gets traded. First off, the Padres are playing in the Korea series and he is a hero in Korea. Add to that the fact that they are trying to sign Lee when he is posted and Kim and Lee are close friends. Lee has been seen wearing a Kim Padres jersey. Lastly, Kim just put up his 2nd straight 5+ WAR season. Not many players like that out there as you pointed out. If the Padres are looking to put a championship team on the field as Seidler just said they are, they need Kim. He plays exceptional defense at 2B, SS, and 3B. That is huge.
Kim would probably have more of an effect on signing Lee if he wasn’t one year out from free agency. If Lee is any good and Kim signs with someone else next year it’s not like the Padres will trade Lee to that someone.
Acee is a joke- my Pads don’t drastically cut payroll (in fact, it may jump up). Soto is retained for ’24 and possibly extended. We shall see, obviously!
Re-sign Snell & Cooper, buh-bye Hader (it was fun while it lasted), put out feelers on moving Gold Glovin’ Grish, retain Wacha & Martinez on the Team Options, entertain bringing Lugo back and grab another arm plus Garver in FA. Non-tender Hill and Nola.
It’s ok to disagree with my assessment(s), we’re all entitled to our own opinions. That being said, I’m right and you’re wrong. =P
GO PADS
#bringyoursmoketoGwynning
#keepthefaith
They don’t have the money to extend Soto. He’s gone after 2024 if not before.
Eh, we’ll see. I don’t think he’s traded at all, unless it’s at the TDL and my Pads have sheet the bed again. Then yeah, move him to a contendah. Take it easy, Kenny!
And you know that they don’t have the money to extend Soto, how? Did you get an inside look at Seidler’s financials? The other owners? Did Seidler say or do something to cause you to doubt his financial commitment? Do you expect he intended to win a W.S. by pouring $$$ into the franchise, then sell it off at a massive profit?
Do you have any idea who Seidler is? Do you know anything about him?
I’d say it’s a crap shoot whether the Padres drop payroll to $200M, or raise it to $300M and pay the lux tax.
Is Scott Barlow a lock at over $7MM?
This is the kind of middle reliever you hope your system produces for the league minimum. I’d use that money elsewhwre.
Yeah I don’t think he is a lock. He was better with the padres and maybe the roll the dude he can be better get. 7m can get a decent reliever. I also think you may see some of these spots filled by guys in the system as well.
Lock at $7m? Ehh, 88% chance it’s picked up? Closer experience, late innings guy… maybe spitball an offer like 3yr @ $15m and see if he bites? I prefer to see Barlow instead of Luis Garcia in a similar role again.
Garcia is a FA. He is gone. Barlow is still arbitration eligible so more likely he is traded than signed at $7 million.
Paying either Wacha or Martinez $16 million is way too much. Bring them back on renegotiated deals for a much lower AAV is something I would agree with.
Lineup: Bogaerts, Kim, Soto, Tatis, Machado, Campusano, Cronenworth, Cooper, Azocar.
Starters: Musgrove, Darvish, Wacha, Martinez, Avila.
Bullpen: Suarez, Barlow, Wilson, Cosgrove….
The above, with scraps found by Preller, could be had for 215M.
That’s a winning team.
Preller/Seidler won’t be able to contain their enthusiasm over winter, I bet they will add another notable SP and other pieces would be surprised if less than $250M
I’d be surprised if they keep it at or below 250m. My guess is it could push closer to 300 then 200m.
This is worse case, most likely Azocar isn’t starting, coops prob isn’t here either. No way they have Martinez and Avila as 4-5 guys. Chance are they will add 2 or 3 pitchers because I don’t think wacha stays.
This shows they will not be close to the 200m.
Add Lee to that lineup. Add another starter to that rotation from FA or trades. Add Sanchez as a backup catcher.
Look at closer to $240-250 million.
Yeah unless they trade Soto and let all the of arb guys go. It’s very hard to see them fielding a team for 200m or less. These reports are going to be very wrong. I don’t think they will trade Soto I certainly don’t think they will trade Soto because of money. So the only way the trade soto is someone blows them away with an offer. Odds are greater they extend Soto then trade him. Which means the odds are much greater they are closer or over 250m then the odds are they are at or below 200m.
The Padres are about to spend 20M dollars on Gallagher Square in Petco Park, adding a playground and a dog park.
One would think that if money was tight, the dog park would go before player payroll.
Don’t tell the writers here that took acre’s report as facts.
One should never conflate the capital budget with the operating budget. The annual depreciation on a joint like Gallagher is probably $1M/year. That doesn’t but a lot of players.
The Padres don’t own the ballpark. So if tenants pay for the improvements they would transfer ownership to the landlord at completion. The costs of the improvements become taxable income for the landlord upon transfer and the landlord depreciates the improvements over the applicable depreciable life. The tenant amortizes the improvement costs over the life of the lease.
The Padres are in trouble from here on until 2035.
Not even a little. Quit reading into these payroll cut reports:
Look at the Tigers 10 years ago. “Ignore history….”
Tigers owner, Ilitch Sr, died in 2017. The next season they cut payroll from $199 million to $125 million. That was the reason for their prolonged rebuild.
If Seidler passes away the same could happen in San Diego.
If you say so. It’s as simple as that.
I can believe that ownership at some point said 200 mil would be ideal, but to them there’s little difference between 200 and 230 if it makes the product that much more playoff viable. Just stay below the tax.
Preller in his interview even alluded to a flexible situation based on what they could get/extend.
I don’t see a mandate to trade away any specific players. They would rather extend Soto, and won’t sell cheap.
They are smart enough to know that if Soto has a down year again, he looses some FA dollars, so he either signs extension (padres win), plays a great contract year season (padres win), or plays relatively poorly and gets cheaper (padres win).
Padres cannot realistically stay below the tax. They would have to trade multiple highly paid players that they just signed to extensions in addition to Soto.
If Pads are looking to shed payroll, how about Baez for Bogaerts? Neither contract is good assuming Baez opts in LOL. Not near the financial commitment for Baez and can offer the flexibility to retain Hader or Snell.
Why would the Padres trade Bogaerts? He is on an extremely team friendly AAV and put up a 4.4 WAR season. Bogaerts provided surplus value on his contract while Baez was all dead weight putting up a 0.7 WAR. Last time Baez was good was 2019.
@pads I was going to say something snarky but it looks like you covered it.
You’re not good at the snark.
LOL. Come on. I want to see your snarky comment.
People making out the need to shed payroll is about ownership desire or capacity, when the report clearly indicates it’s an MLB debt ratio requirement.
Whether that’s true or not, time will tell.
Acee himself said in a subsequent article that debt service was not an issue. That the Padres had shown MLB a plan to recover from the debt service violation caused by 2020. 23 teams were in violation of debt service rules because of the pandemic. It wasn’t just the Padres.
Padres did not lose money in 2023 according to Erik Greupner the CEO. They had record crowds at Petco and record revenue even after DSG defaulted on their TV deal. So much so that they are now a net revenue sharing paying team instead of a recipient of revenue sharing. Season tickets for next season are already sold out just from people like me renewing my season tickets. They are still seen on every TV and streaming platform they were before and now they get 100% of the money. They sold enough single team local MLB.tv packages to put them on pace for $30 million a season just from that source. People seem to forget that the Padres are the only game in town in SD. No Chargers competing for corporate and advertising dollars. The Padres have the money to have payroll at whatever level
Ok then. I made a half hearted attempt at looking for the subsequent article. Couldn’t find it. I believe you though.
Yeah I’ve heard this as well but have never actually seen the article. I don’t have to believe you because I didn’t believe acee to start with. This is the guy that said Melvin and him weren’t able to work together and yet here they are again. This is the guy that said the padres had 5m to spend last offseason and spend 411m. This is the same guy when preller was interviewed last year and someone asked about an acee report and I quote…preller said whatever acee says we do the opposite. Dennis lin while isn’t as bad as acee has also been wrong a lot about the padres recently. You just don’t hear preller and Seidler say otherwise because I think they like being the small budget team that shows otherwise each year. Like I’ve said before don’t believe payroll numbers until you hear preller or Seidler talk about them. Just for the record a little over a month ago Seidler said he expected payroll to be around the same as this year. So if that’s 255m and they are at 180 after arb salaries are including then you can expect the padres to spend another 70+m on payroll this year. They could spread that out amongst a number of players mainly pitchers or more likely they go for a big splash or two and then fill in the remainder with what’s left.
Ha-Seong Kim is NOT eligible for arb after 2024! He is a free agent!
The Padres do, however, retain the right to extend him a qualifying offer if they don’t trade him.
What would be Ideal
Sign Kim Ha-Seong to a long term extension (5 Years 85 MM)
Sign Lee Jung Hoo ((5 Years 85MM like BOS did for Yoshida)
Sign Ohtani for 10 Years 400MM (throw in 2% padres ownership stake)
Obtain a 40MM a year brand deal with an asian conglomerate for jersey patch (pays for Ohtani salary)
Trade
Juan Soto and Cronenworth to NYM for Pete Alonso
You were on a roll until the Pete Alonso deal.
No one is signing Ohtani for 10/$400M unless he wants to play for that specific team, and signs for a discount. Several teams would offer more years and $s.
Kim might be worth every bit of 5/85, but its more likely the Padres want to lock him up longer at a lower AAV. 8/100?
Lee is not likely to get Yoshida money. He is not a power hitter. 5/50 is more likely.
Ohtani will want a longer deal for a larger AAV. That money is better spent on Soto.
Padres uniform patch deal with Motorola for $10 million per season is locked in for 5 years. They cannot sign another one.
Soto is irreplaceable. Like Betts, no matter who you trade for its a bad trade.
Cronenworth is untradeable with that contract extension that starts next season. Maybe if he comes back and has a lights out 2024 the Padres could trade him, but then why would they want to.?
The Padres have been known for winning the off season, and not playing to their potential. I think they will sign 2 top free agents this winter, pitchers like Nola, Montgomery, and Yamamoto.
I could see Montgomery as a Snell replacement.
This team should have one and likely will win in 24. Clearly they’re in win now mode and the market this year is deep in pitching and thin in hitting a best case scenario with their lineup. Best lineup I’ve seen not make the postseason especially with expansion of the playoff field. Pitcher here and a pitcher there with subtractions to offset those moves and this team wins a lot of games. Don’t blame Preller either on paper this team looked really good or great even. WS competitors maybe. But Preller can’t pitch or predict whether a pitcher stays healthy or a guy with a history of success falls on his face. He built a winning team that just didn’t win. It’s not like everyone went downhill either he’s got plenty to work with still. Someone mentioned Montgomery I have hopes the Cardinals pick him back up after the deadline deal theres talk of it but rarely seems to happen especially since he pitched so well afterwards he’ll be pricey but the Padres could definitely benefit from him. He’s either reliable or really good that’s what the Padres need
The Padres had some chemistry and underperformance issues this past year.
Many experts predicted the Padres would win the AL West and might even reach the World Series. But, they were exposed for their depth, injury and underperformance issues.
Many of their free agents will walk freeing up a lot of money for payroll
To be competitive and have a shot at the World Series in ’24, the Padres will have to do some retooling and some promotions from their farm system.
Top SS prospect Jackson Merrill is in AA and could make the jump to the Padres.
(Many top players/prospects either skip AAA or just get a few cups of coffee there on their way to the majors).
Merrill could play SS, LF or CF.
Xander Bogaerts could either stay @ SS or slide over to 2B or LF
The Rotation will need work: free agent(s) trades, promotion from farm or bullpen.
CF could use an upgrade unless they slide Tatis Jr over there and get another corner OF.
The Padres Bench and bullpen needs upgrade(s) also.
The Padres payroll for ’24 is projected at 172M.
It can be done.
But, how well it will be done depends on whether the Padres are willing to spend some cold, hard cash and push their payroll back into luxury tax limits.
But, all the Padres needs cannot be met by shopping @ the flea market.
A Soto deal can only be done if they get back young players
with big upside who can help them win now and into the future:
under the radar trades like what the Dombrowski & Philllies did with Marsh and Pache…But, before the league knows and sees their full potential etc. If Pads can find a few of those deals and unlock future potential now, then it might work
“Given their reported payroll situation, it seems likely they’ll decline their end of both provisions. It’s not an unreasonable amount for Wacha in isolation, but it’d be harder to justify if San Diego has somewhat limited spending room.”
If Wacha is worth that amount wouldn’t it make more sense to exercise the option and then trade him????