Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent.
To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2023 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series. The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is reportedly worth around $20.5MM. An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere. This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty.
Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club…
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays
Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2024 draft. Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks (the Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded).
The Mariners, Orioles, Rays, and Reds stand out as at least somewhat realistic candidates to sign a QO-rejecting free agent this winter. Seattle is expected to make some level of pursuit of the biggest free agent of all in Shohei Ohtani, while the Orioles and Reds might feel the time is right to augment their young core with a bigger name, likely a pitcher. Tampa Bay might be willing to stretch its usual payroll standards a bit this winter, though it remains to be seen if the Rays would splurge on a major free agent.
Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Nationals, Astros, White Sox, Red Sox
For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2023 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period.
Many of these clubs could be prominent players in free agency, perhaps further emboldened by their relatively lesser draft penalty. St. Louis is aiming to acquire at least three starting pitchers, the Giants are hoping to finally land a big name after their failed pursuits of Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last winter, the Cubs could be looking to make a big splash to replace Cody Bellinger (if Bellinger can’t be re-signed at all), and the Red Sox might be looking to return to contention in a big way once their new front office leader is hired.
The Team In Limbo: Angels
As noted in the last post, it won’t be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Angels have exceeded the $233MM CBT threshold. While this most specifically relates to the compensation Los Angeles may receive if Ohtani signs elsewhere, it also impacts what the Halos would have to give up if they wanted to add another qualified free agent.
If the Angels ducked under the CBT line, they’ll be in the previous group. But, if the league’s calculations determine that the Angels were in excess of the tax threshold, they’ll be included with the other…
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, Blue Jays, Yankees
As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties. For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2024 draft.
Ohtani’s name looms large in this category, as several of these clubs might not proceed with major offseason business until they know one way or the other if they can land the two-way superstar. Conversely, a team that isn’t willing to give out the record-setting contract it will likely take to land Ohtani could instead more aggressively pursue some relatively less expensive qualified free agents, looking to land a player while some other suitors are occupied. Of course, the higher penalty could also mean that some tax-payor teams instead look for upgrades on the trade market, or at some free agents (i.e. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Jeimer Candelario, Eduardo Rodriguez) who aren’t eligible for the qualifying offer.
Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick. For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2024 draft. The teams who didn’t exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool. The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections.
If Texas didn’t sign Semien, they would have probably still made the Wild Card round with guys like Foscue/Acuna/Duran/Smith at 2nd and wouldn’t have to worry so much about qualifying offers. It is quite unfortunate. It’s not like the guy has done anything but popup early in the count in key situations in the playoffs.
Lol you really don’t want semien on the team for 25 mil a year
Zzzzzzzzz.
Realize, it doesn’t matter how good your team is, until our MLB geniuses figure if you’re in third place, your entitled to win????
He is 7/44 in this year’s playoffs
He had 3 infield popups in last night’s game.
Wow! 44 AB! What a robust and meaningful sample size! Its almost like an extreme fly ball hitter vs an extreme fly ball pitcher leads to a lot of pop ups.
It fit within the context of the discussion, which was about the playoffs.
No way Semien was only marginally better than those guys. Rangers would’ve lost the wildcard to the M’s, had Semien not been a 7.4 WAR player.
The loss/gain is not equitable for the middle teams (who don’t pay penalties, or receive money). If they lose a player in this situation, they gain one essentially before the start of the 3rd round, but if they sign one, they lose their 2nd highest pick. If said team picks first in the second round, that’s not equitable to them gaining the 1st pick at the end of the second round.
It must be equitable, as the teams agreed to it.
Who cares. Sign who you want
Starting to think that MLB needs to take a lesson from the European soccer/football leagues and perennially bad teams get knocked down to a lesser league until they get better. That should stop the gaming that you see some teams doing to either save money or get good overall picks (or both)
LOL
Imagine the Yankees with a $300 mil payroll playing in AAA. LOL
While it’s a fun idea it would require too much change. The minor league teams would all become independent, the draft would disappear. Only reason the euro leagues can do this is because they don’t have a players union and it’s the biggest sport/league in the world
I think the Os will be unlikely to sign a QO free agent largely because their 3rd highest pick is likely to be their CB-A round pick if Gunnar is indeed the AL ROY. They’ve done too well with picks in that territory (Westburg, Norby, Gunnar) to lose it while paying market value. If they splurge on a FA, I expect it to be Montgomery, Giolito or someone without the QO.
The low draft pick cost should really incentivize Oakland to sign Ohtani
They will not be winning anytime soon.Why would he go to a currently homeless team?
#sarcasm
14 players last year had QOs offered. That’s it, that’s what this Rube Goldberg-like system is all about. But it doesn’t always do what owners want it to do, which is hold down salaries. Big market teams continue to offer extremely high $ contracts to top tier talent.
What it might be doing, instead, is driving up prices for the A-/B+ talent. The players (handful of players) who get dinged are the ones for which a QO might be an overpay on a seasonal basis, but the team knows the player is looking for more years and will reject it. This last season Tyler Anderson rejected it and signed for 3/$39, Nathan Eovaldi as well, , 2/$34. If that’s how you save…? Penalizing the big market teams has limited impact, because if a player is good enough, even if one big spender drops out because of the CBT, there will still be others. But where it might have real dollar impact is longer term–the more you cut big market teams out of the draft and international draft, the more likely 4 years down the road they have a hole they have to fix–and the overpay for a veteran. That drives up salaries, not down. It’s a dumb system.
It amazes me people make a lot of money to make up these convoluted and complex rules. I guess the more complex you make them is more job security for someone.
Just to be clear. Posted players from Japan are not QO players right?
True
Double spaces after periods? What is this, 1967?
“But, if the league’s calculations determine that the Angels were in excess of the tax threshold, they’ll be included with the other…”
A comma after “but” is never correct, and this is a perfect example of people misusing it.
I would be shocked if the Reds sign a significant free agent. Perhaps, they will see what FAs are left over in February and try to land a player on the cheap (ie. Will Meyer). I just laugh when I read baseball writers or even fans suggesting the Reds will spend money this offseason. Spending big money on free agents is just not what the Reds do.