There’s no bigger name on the trade front than Juan Soto. The superstar outfielder topped MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates a few weeks ago. He’s one season from free agency on a Padres team that is reportedly planning to cut payroll. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Soto for a record $33MM salary for his final season of arbitration, which would make him the highest-paid player on the roster.
President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has made clear the organizational preference would be to sign Soto to an extension. That seems extremely unlikely. Soto declined a $440MM offer from the Nationals in the summer of 2022. The price tag should only be higher now that he’s a year and a half nearer to free agency. Neither San Diego nor anyone else should expect to keep Soto from the open market.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote yesterday that a trade seems likely based on the Friars’ payroll and roster outlook. San Diego is down to Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish as locks for a spot in the rotation. They could use a little more depth on the position player side. No move would create more short-term payroll room than a Soto trade.
It’s hard to envision the Padres dealing him within the NL West. San Diego isn’t rebuilding. A trade may be financially motivated but would also open room for reinvestment. The Friars aren’t likely to deal Soto to the Dodgers, Diamondbacks or Giants. The Rockies aren’t acquiring a star for one season.
What about the other 25 teams? Which ones make the most sense?
Note: All payroll projections courtesy of Roster Resource. Teams are listed alphabetically within each tier.
Best Fits
- Blue Jays: GM Ross Atkins has spoken of a desire to add multiple hitters. They’re in the mix on Shohei Ohtani but could turn to the trade market if the two-way star signs elsewhere. The Jays could slide Daulton Varsho to center field to plug Soto into left. They’re around $24MM shy of next year’s base luxury tax threshold. Acquiring Soto would push them into CBT territory, which they were willing to do this past season.
- Cubs: The Cubs are also in on Ohtani. Signing the defending AL MVP would take them out of the mix for Soto. If they don’t get Ohtani, taking a swing for Soto to rotate through the corner outfield and DH spots alongside Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ makes sense. Chicago is a borderline playoff team as things stand. They project $50MM below the tax threshold. They’re within $7MM of this year’s Opening Day payroll but around $25MM south of their franchise-high mark from 2019.
- Mariners: Seattle doesn’t seem as involved on Ohtani as some of the other teams in this tier. Perhaps that’s an indicator they’re not interested in any player on a massive salary, as they project around $4MM below this year’s season-opening spending level. They’re around $25MM away from their franchise-record Opening Day payroll, though, and one season of Soto wouldn’t come with the kind of long-term downside from which Seattle has shied away in free agency. The Mariners need offense to push them over the top and could upgrade in either corner outfield spot, where Jarred Kelenic and Dominic Canzone project as the top internal options.
- Rangers: The defending World Series winners have a strong starting outfield of Evan Carter, Leody Taveras and Adolis García. Primary DH Mitch Garver reached free agency, opening a spot in the middle of the lineup. It’s probably too soon to count on last year’s #4 overall pick Wyatt Langford, who only has 17 games of upper minors experience. Adding Soto to an already stellar offense for a season as they go for a repeat makes plenty of sense. They already project above this year’s Opening Day payroll but figure to push spending higher on the heels of a championship. Texas projects around $18MM south of the lowest luxury tax threshold; they could add Soto without paying especially onerous penalties.
- Red Sox: DH Justin Turner hit free agency. Right fielder Alex Verdugo is an annual offseason trade candidate. A corner outfield tandem of Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida isn’t disastrous, but it’s certainly not going to stand in the way of a player like Soto. Coming off consecutive 78-84 seasons, perhaps the Sox don’t feel they’re perfectly positioned to strike for this kind of rental player. They’re around $52MM shy of the base luxury threshold, though, and acquiring Soto would put them right back in the hunt in the AL East.
- Yankees: GM Brian Cashman is openly seeking multiple outfielders, ideally ones who hit from the left side. The Yankees project for a payroll that sits around $40MM south of their 2023 mark. A Soto acquisition would bring them to the border of the third tier of luxury tax penalization. That’d be a concern for many teams but is a line the Yankees shouldn’t have any qualms about passing. As long as New York considers itself a legitimate contender in 2024 — adding Soto would make that a lot more realistic — there aren’t many cleaner fits.
Longer Shots
- Angels: The Halos have made clear they’re not going to rebuild even if Ohtani walks. They have been aggressive in trading for players deep into their arbitration seasons and would have the payroll capacity to accommodate Soto’s salary if they don’t retain Ohtani. They have stripped down the farm system in ill-fated moves to increase their odds of competing in the short term, however. Even if owner Arte Moreno wants to add a big name to compensate for a potential Ohtani departure, acquiring Soto seems too short-sighted.
- Braves: Atlanta has an opening in left field after declining their option on Eddie Rosario. The Braves already project for a franchise-record payroll and have an elite lineup despite the left field question. Bringing in a starting pitcher feels like the safer bet.
- Mets: Few teams have as bleak a corner outfield picture as the Mets. Starling Marte had a terrible season. DJ Stewart played well down the stretch, but he’s a 30-year-old who wasn’t on a 40-man roster as recently as this past July. They’re going to bring in some kind of outfield help. Trading for Soto would be a bold play for a team that has hinted at 2025 as its more realistic contention window coming off a 75-87 season. They could look for more of a stopgap acquisition and make a bigger run at Soto when he hits free agency next November.
- Orioles: Pitching is the bigger concern for Baltimore, who have Austin Hays, Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle in the corner outfield/DH mix. The O’s still have an elite farm system that ostensibly opens the possibility for a luxury buy, particularly if they offloaded Santander’s $12.7MM projected salary (either as a lesser piece of a Soto return or in a separate trade). This isn’t the kind of move the O’s have made under GM Mike Elias, however.
- Phillies: Philadelphia has Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper handling the combination of first base, the corner outfield and designated hitter. They could kick Schwarber to a full-time DH role and install Soto in the corner opposite Castellanos to flank Brandon Marsh in center field. The offense isn’t necessarily a need for the Phils, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has never shied away from the chance to bring in a star. This might be an easier fit if the Phils could first offload Castellanos in a separate trade (although he wouldn’t hold any appeal to San Diego as part of a return for Soto).
Payroll Questions
- Astros
- Brewers
- Guardians
- Marlins
- Pirates
- Rays
- Twins
While a $33MM salary is still well below the market value for one year of Soto’s services, none of these teams is likely to take it on. Milwaukee, Cleveland, Miami, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay are among the lower spenders in MLB. Houston arguably has a need in left field, but GM Dana Brown has downplayed their desire for outfield help and suggested they’re operating without a ton of payroll room. Minnesota is scaling back payroll and already right around their reported target area.
Other Priorities
- Cardinals
- Reds
- Tigers
Soto would obviously make any team better. Yet no one in this group has the kind of urgent need for corner outfield help that make them likely to offer enough young talent to beat what more desperate teams could put on the table.
The Cardinals could ostensibly trade Tyler O’Neill and target Soto to play the corner outfield alongside Jordan Walker. They’re already at last year’s spending level, though, and it’s debatable whether they’re good enough to push in to this extent for a rental. Cincinnati is focused on starting pitching and seems unlikely to meet the kind of asking price for Soto, whom they’d have no hope of re-signing next offseason. Detroit brought in Mark Canha this offseason to join Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter in the corner outfield/DH mix. They’re too fringy of a contender to make this kind of play.
Wrong Competitive Timeline
- A’s
- Nationals
- Royals
- White Sox
The A’s might be the only of these teams that is openly going into 2024 without any hope of competing. No one in this tier has a good enough roster to consider themselves one player away from contention, however. Parting with multiple high-end prospects for a rental doesn’t make sense, even if each of Washington, Kansas City and Chicago will probably make smaller moves of the “win-now” variety this winter.
Captain-Judge99
Yankees hands down, best fit.
Idosteroids
Who are you giving up in return? Be realistic
Tom the ray fan
Frazier andujar and delvi Garcia
JPR
gotta thrown in Bird to make this work
Captain-Judge99
@Tom the ray fan- Is your Mother included?
Tom the ray fan
Nah but “Captain” Judge’s mom is.
Captain-Judge99
Nah she’s going nowhere, tough guy!
Tom the ray fan
Just like the Yanks even with Soto, tough guy!
Captain-Judge99
Why not you impress me and get Wander Franco out of jail, tough guy!
canadianyankee
Bird is untouchable! He’s a future HOF
Seamaholic
Tricky because I don’t think SD is gonna go for the sexy single A tools-guy mix. They’re gonna want major league ready, with at least one part of the package having superstar potential. Of course, the Padres could just break it all down, but since they don’t have an owner setting direction at the moment, I’d very much doubt that. So whom do the Yankees have? They’ve got some good prospects for sure, but it would cost much of their upper tier. No great ones as a centerpiece, especially with Jasson out, and I don’t see anyone on the MLB roster the Padres would really go for.
Simm
I think that’s not true. I don’t love the Yankees as a trade partner but they do have guys like King who could slide into the padres rotation. He has two years of control left but hasn’t ever pitched a full season as a starter. He I close to a lugo like guy.
Schmidt I don’t love but he could be a back end 5th starter. He definitely isn’t a the headline but could be a 3rd or 4th piece.
They do have outfielders who the padres will need. The Martian and jones are bother appealing. Then they have a couple of lower top 100 pitchers that would have some interest.
I also believe the Yankees and cashman are desperate. Just watch cashmans interviews, he like preller has to feel like he is fighting for his job. Preller take a big hit trading Soto so the only way he does is by a big return. Cashman is desperate to add another star especially a young generational slugger from the left side. Which is an area Cashman has been taking a beating in the media about not having.
Mariners lineup better but I think the Yankees if anyone gets Soto because they are desperate
frankpr21
Soto is nit worth 400.000. It is just money but he will not age well. He will be a dedensive liability as soon as tomorrow.
Pads Fans
King will be 29 in 2024 and has never been more than a reliever. When a players shows you what he is over multiple seasons in the majors. believe him. King has no value for the Padres.
Schmidt will be 28 in 2024. He has a career 4.36 ERA over parts of 4 seasons in the majors and was worse in 2023 with a FIP that fits his ERA. He is not a good starter.
The Padres can pick up someone else that actually has a chance at being a good starter. Look at what they did with Martinez, Wacha, and Lugo for the back of the rotation last season. Think Rodriguez, Fedde, or even Naoyuki Uwasawa for the #5 slot that Schmidt MIGHT be able to fill.
The Padres will be asking for a huge deal for Soto and it doesn’t start with any of the Yankees trash like King and Schmidt. They might be good enough to be the #3 piece in a deal for Soto.
Simm
Pads fan, Yeah that’s how I see it. I’m probably a little higher on king the you are but he is a risk when it comes to being a starter.
Schmidt I’m 100% with you. He is basically a 5th starter and not a good one.
Neither of these guys are headlines in a Soto deal but can be complimentary pieces.
Brew’88
@frankpr He’s going to ask for at least $500M, and will likely get it
frankpr21
You are right, we know there are 5 mega rich teams out there. But how it is so far working for San Diego and Tatis, and this guy is an athletic physical specimen and how about Machado. And do not forget Cabrera and the Tigers. Soto grea hitter, his defense is bad, not a speedy guy. He will be a DH in no time. He is already showing he will be sooner than later a liability not only financially but remember baseball is a Team sport where you need the contribution of 26 active players plus other 14 complementary ones. So, San Diego try to win it all with Soto, how did that worked out for them. Anyway Dodgers, Yankees, Boston, Angels, Cubs, Rangers could pay that money and then Rays, Reds, Guardians, Cardinals and Marlins will sneak in. Well again this is my view, but this Soto, is not Mays,Clemente, Bonds just to say a few. Baseball is pricing itself out of existence. At least 25 teams can not afford salaries like this for one player. This should send a red flag signal to Mr. Baseball Commissioner and the players union they are heading on the run direction.
websoulsurfer
Not so sure about Uwasawa, but Fedde, Rodriguez, and Lugo or Wacha would be better bets.
Captain-Judge99
Yeah I like King too. Yankees probably won’t be parting with him unless Soto is signed to an extension lst. A 72 hour window would likely be provided before a trade happens. With that happening the Friars get more prospect capital back.
Simm
People have been saying that for 50+ years and yet baseball is still here.
These franchises keep going up and up in value.
outinleftfield
CAP, you are funny. #1, no team is giving a window to negotiate an extension and MLB has been loathe to approve them. I cannot think of a single one in a decade or more.. #2 King is not worth much. He is a reliever. He was an emergency starter for the Yankees last year and will go back to being that #6-#7 starter if Cashman has any say in the matter. If he is in the opening day rotation the Yankees have no shot at the playoffs. #3 Soto is going to be asking for $500 million and with his extension price that high it won’t matter one bit in terms of return whether he has an extension first or not. The return is going to be huge and so is the extension or FA contract he gets.
outinleftfield
So does MLB and team revenue.
Rally Goose
@outinleftfield Like I said before, Adrian Gonzalez, R. A. Dickey and Sonny Gray were traded with extension windows. Probably others that I can’t remember. Gray was less than a decade ago. Only reason for the Padres to not allow it is if they want to bring Soto back after 2024.
Tigers3232
Windows for an extension are no allowed by MLB, it is not even an option. Either is Pads extending him and immediately trading him.
outinleftfield
RA Dickey in 2012, Adrian Gonzalez in 2012. Sonny Gray was in 2019, so at least that one is in the last decade. So 3 in the last 12 years.
The reason for the Padres to not allow it is it ties up negotiating with other teams. Only way that happens is a considerable overpay by the team that wants Soto.
outinleftfield
I looked in the new CBA and couldn’t find that, but its a huge document. Maybe you could point out on what page it says that they cannot allow a 72 hour window to get an extension done or void the trade?
Here is the link. mlbplayers.com/cba
Thanks.
Rally Goose
@ouintleftfield Gonzalez was in 2010-11. When the Padres traded him to the Red Sox.
People say the Padres will get more in trade if the acquiring team is able to get an extension out of the trade. I’m not sure I agree with that sentiment.
Rally Goose
@Tigers3232 Both are allowed.
Tigers3232
@Rally, no neither are allowed. If a player signs a contract or extension that is 3 years or longer and/or a deal rather is a raise of greater than 5% they can not be traded for 5 months. And only a team that has the rights to a player is allowed to negotiate with them.
Tigers3232
@Rally,Gonzalez was traded to Red Sox Dec 6th 2010, he signed a 7 year extension with BOS April 15th 2011. He was then traded while under contract to the Dodgers on Aug 25th 2012.
He was never traded with an extension window, he was traded while under a contract.
Rally Goose
@Tigers3232…
” If a player signs a contract or extension that is 3 years or longer and/or a deal rather is a raise of greater than 5% they can not be traded for 5 months.”
Only true if it is as a free agent. Otherwise you wouldn’t have situations like Seth Smith.
“Gonzalez was traded to Red Sox Dec 6th 2010, he signed a 7 year extension with BOS April 15th 2011. He was then traded while under contract to the Dodgers on Aug 25th 2012.”
Fine. What about R. A. Dickey and Sonny Gray?
Pads Fans
Adrian Gonzalez was not traded with an extension window. He was extended by the Red Sox about a month into the next season.
Tigers3232
@Rally, it is in the new CBA. Those are the rules now.
Rally Goose
@Pads Fans Yes, I was wrong about the Gonzalez part I already acknowledged that. Still was right about Sonny Gray and R. A. Dickey. And IIRC someone else did it last offseason but I can’t remember their name.
It’s academic anyway. Boras isn’t going to let Soto sign an extension at this point unless they offer something outrageous, which would defeat the purpose of extending him.
Rally Goose
@Tigers3232 Where in the CBA does it supposedly say that?
Rally Goose
@Tigers3232 and outinleftfield Dodgers just did it with Tyler Glasnow. Looks like it is allowed.
Captain-Judge99
Is Soto signing an extension lst prior to the trade? If a extension is signed then obviously the prospects would be better in a trade, for now Mr. Soto is nothing more then just a rental.
Idosteroids
My take is the Yankees arent going to spend prospect capital to get him without an extension in hand.
Longtimecoming
Cap it’s hard to call a bat like Soto’s “nothing more than a rental”.
If you rent a Lamborghini (or insert your favorite) for a week, it isn’t “nothing more than a rental”. It’s a week of fun driving an elite sports car!
RSmith
This is a repeat of the Mookie Betts situation. The fans will expect a windfall of prospects, but in reality it will only be pretty good. If you trade for Soto, you only get one year. If you lock him up, you have to pay close to or the same as if he was already a FA (he is only 1 season away from FA anyways). This really takes away from the value Padres will receive.
Captain-Judge99
Ok your making sense, well make me an offer for this fancy car lst. Then we can talk shop.
RSmith
Captain Judge:
Soto for Jason Dominguez and Randy Vasquez
(Padres arent allowing negotiating before hand, but a casual phone call from Cashman to Soto’s Agent to talk about the ‘weather’ is probable)
Who Says No?
Simm
Betas got the Red Sox the equivalent of 3 top 50 prospects.
Downs was number 44 in all of baseball
Verdugo was higher than that the year before and had a 3 war rookie season. He definitely was the center piece over even downs. So count him as another top 50 guy.
They got a good flyer in wong
The dodgers at 48m of prices contract when he was worth nearly nothing. Let’s takes the Padres when they traded Hosmer. He was owed 39m the padres are all but league min to move him. If they don’t wanted the Sox to eat the 39m the padres would have had to add at least a top 50 prospect.
So Betts basically got back 3 top 50 prospects in baseball.
So yes the Betts trade is about as close as a comp as you are going to get.
Now how many top 50 prospects do the Yankees have??? Zero.
So those of you saying we are t reading jones a mid 70’s prospect for Soto clearly don’t know soto’s value.
You can be against trading for Soto but history shows what he is worth…. A heck of a lot.
Simm
RSmith, honestly the padre say no. Pretty quick at that.
RSmith
“RSmith, honestly the padre say no. Pretty quick at that.”
I doubt the offers will be much better, so he stays put is my guess.
Joel P
Your prospect math seems a bit off. If you are counting Verdugo as a top 50 prospect why wouldn’t you count some of the Yankees guys?
Simm
We can, give me a player on the Yankees who would count as a top 50 prospect. Volpe? Okay we can count him. Who else that is cheap and controlled?
scissormetimbers
Look what the Jay’s traded for Varsho last year, any offer for Sotto needs go be greater than that package. Varsho has term, but the dude isn’t great at baseball.
Joel P
Dominguez?
RSmith
“If you are counting Verdugo”
Are you saying Soto is as good as Betts? Betts was holding 4 Gold Gloves and an MVP when he was traded. Soto is very good hitter, but not even as good of a hitter as Betts. And thats all Soto does. Sorry buy you dont get a Top 50, you get a Top 75.
Captain-Judge99
@RSmith- you guys are definitely not getting Jasson Dominguez for a rental. I’d forget about him, maybe Spencer Jones in a Soto deal, but only with an extension signed lst by Juan & Boras.
Ma4170
Yankees could give hampton jones king and SD would prob have to say yes. It would be a bit of an overpay for one year of soto, but in doing that, you also get to exclusively negotiate w him and his agent the whole year. I’m surprised that isn’t mentioned more.
RSmith
Ive got Padres fan saying “Padres say no pretty quick”
Ive got got Yankee fan saying “definitely not getting Dominguez”
Id say Im close to the sweet spot.
*Also, because I compared the Soto situation to the Betts situation. In no way, was I saying that Soto is as good as Betts. Compare the stats and accomplishment of the two players at the time of Betts trade. Its not even close, Betts is much better.
JPR
Probably because Boras clients do not negotiate during the walk year.
Pads Fans
Mookie Betts trade
Verdugo – an elite prospect, top 35 to start the season, that put up a 3.0 WAR in his rookie season.
Downs – the #44 overall prospect that was in AA
Wong – a MLB ready, 50 FV prospect at a position of need for the Sox
$48 million of Price’s contract.
Since no $48 million, increase the value of the prospects slightly or include a slightly better MLB player than the 3.0 WAR that Verdugo had just put up playing mostly CF for the Dodgers.
Pads Fans
Verdugo was a top 35 prospect, a 60 FV, and then went out and put up a 3.0 WAR while playing a premium position for the Dodgers.
None of the Yankees prospects are as good except Volpe and he doesn’t play a position of need for the Padres.
Simm
I am not going to argue that Betts could be viewed as better than Soto but it’s the closest comp you can get with one year left.
Someone said if Betts was worth 3 top 50
Prospects then Soto is worth 3 top 70 prospects. I’d have a hard time arguing with that. It will be interesting to see what happens but most Yankees fans have them giving up a quarter of what Betts got not 90% which at the least is right.
RSmith
“could be viewed as better”
Its not even close. Do you not believe that defense matters? Speed? He had World Series ring, 4 Gold Gloves and an MVP. Soto has none of that hardware.
Its a terrible comparison, if youre looking at what value should come back.
vtadave
You mean the Padres couldn’t use yet another SS?
Longtimecoming
RS –
“Soto has none of that hardware”
Got a ring in 2019; 2nd in ROY; 4 silver sluggers; 4 of 5 years in top 9 in MVP (with 2, 5, 6, and 9).
Might recheck.
Every year of his career at elite status with the bat – not many thru age 24 in history better.
RSmith
Longtime:
Lol, I forgot Washington got a WS in ’19. You got me there.
But, Betts had 4 Silver Sluggers as well.
And help me out. What does the 2nd place in ROY “hardware” look like? And what does 9th place MVP trophy look look?
Here’s a couple of stats Soto lovers seem to be missing:
Betts when traded: +41 Fielding Run Value
Soto currently has: -23 Fielding Run Value
Betts when traded: 126 Stolen Bases
Soto currently has: 50 Stolen Bases
No way Friar fans should be expecting Betts type of a return, there’s no comparison.
Simm
Right soto has never won a World Series. If he played in one I’m sure he was bad. Please don’t fact check this.
Betts career 138 ops+…Soto 157 career ops+
Soto is the better player in the batters box by far. 20% better at that.
Betts is the better defender and base runner.
Soto is also younger.
Fangraphs has Soto projected at 6.4 war next year at age 25. Which is higher then Betts career avg. Also higher then they project for Betts next year. Betts is in his prime and Soto hasn’t even reached his prime yet.
Saying these two aren’t even close is crazy talk.
Like I said you can argue Betts is better but sotos is close and hasn’t even hit his prime. Add that with what he would do in Yankees stadium and he could easily have an mvp year.
RSmith
You already lost Soto. Thanks for playing.
Ma4170
Yeah they’re clearly comparable. Soto is the better hitter, betts the better fielder, but both elite.
Longtimecoming
RS – what it looks like is $500 MILLION dollars in about 12 months from now along with &33 MILLION dollars for 2023.
Not too bad huh?
Longtimecoming
Simm – now you’ve done it. Bringing facts into the argument! He won’t read them or understand them.
Ma4170
@JPR maybe not officially, but im sure theyre talking tHroughout the year and getting a good idea of what it would take, plus they’d probably be the first offer considered.
Pads Fans
Soto has a ring with the Nationals in 2019.
outinleftfield
The Red Sox got a windfall. A top 35 prospect that produced a 3.o WAR for the Dodgers, mostly in CF. Another top 50 prospect in Downs. Plus a MLB ready catcher, something they really needed at the time.
outinleftfield
Verdugo was a top 35 prospect prior to the 2019 season with a 60 FV grade. Then he went out and proved he was worth the ranking by producing a 3.0 WAR while playing mostly CF.
mlb.com/prospects/top100/ Sort for the Yankees. They top out at #73.
outinleftfield
The Dodgers had to take on $48 million along with paying out all those prospects. Its a pretty good comparison.
Soto 157 OPS+
Betts 134 OPS+ prior to the trade
Soto is quite a bit better as a hitter.
Javia135
@RSmith
“Soto is a very good hitter, but not even as good of a hitter as Betts”
What is generally considered the best measure of offensive performance? OPS+
Lifetime OPS+:
Betts-138
Soto-157
How many active players have a higher OPS+?
BaseballisLife
157 OPS+ vs 134 OPS+ Betts best skills are what declines fastest, speed and defense.
BaseballisLife
Betts was a 134 OPS+ at the time of the trade.
Rally Goose
You guys wanna hear a story about Alex Verdugo!?
PutPeteinthehall
Id say he goes. 33m off the books. There looks to be a payroll adjustment/reduction short term due to broadcasting revenues. It’s more of just a business now that the owner is gone.
Captain-Judge99
Dominguez and Jones will be much better players then Verdugo. Verdugo might help you land a Jonathan India maybe? I would rather have Gleyber then Verdugo. Verdugo is average at best. You are acting like these Yankees prospects being offered are garbage, when you know ZERO about them truthfully. Dominguez or Volpe would never be offered for Soto, especially as a rental, so keep dreaming. As a Yankees fan I would be happy keeping King and Schmidt on the team.
websoulsurfer
Awards? Are you serious?
157 OPS+ vs 134 OPS+
Soto the better hitter.
Betts was also coming off his age 26 season and Soto his age 24 season.
Betts cost the Dodgers not only the players, but $48 million as well. Of course the Padres will get as much as the Red Sox got for Betts.
websoulsurfer
It would be an extreme underpay for Soto and the Padres would not even pass it along to Preller because it’s so bad.
For any trade with the Yankees, the only prospect or player valuable enough to be the centerpiece is Volpe. The Yankees have no other top 50 prospects and this deal would take 2 players that either are or were top 50.
websoulsurfer
Verdugo was a better graded and higher ranked prospect and he put up 3.0 WAR in CF in his rookie season with the Dodgers.
So the answer is no Neither Dominguez nor Jones are better players than Verdugo was at the time of the Betts trade.
Jones struck out 32% of the time last season. That is an exceptionally bad omen. If you asked me to bet on it, I would go with never making it as starter in the majors.
Dominguez might make it, but he has much of the same K problem that Jones does. He struck out 30.5% last season. I do think of the two, Dominguez has at least a chance to make it in the majors once he returns late next season from the TJ surgery.
BrianStrowman9
Blatant lie. One of your accounts just linked the article that says he was a 55 FV.
Alex Verdugo was not a 60 FV. This is all easily verifiable information. He was a very high floor player with an above average regular ceiling. MLB.com FV 55 FG 50 FV. Accurate. He’s been a 55.
That’s what he’s been. Jeter Downs was a risk/reward reward 50/55 FV guy. He absolutely busted.
Why do you put your thumb on the scale every damn time? In the last post you say “Connor Wong was just outside the top 100 prospects”. Complete and utter Bullshat on every level.
mlb.com/prospects/2018/top100/alex-verdugo-657077
BrianStrowman9
“Verdugo has undeniable feel for contact but we think he moves to a corner and may not have power that fits there. We’re also down on the makeup.” FV50
Verdugo has generated 9.2fWAR in his 5+ years. Pretty good scouting by fangraphs there.
BrianStrowman9
Soto being 24 and betts being 26 is completely irrelevant for a guy with 1 year of control.
Simm
Verdugo at the time the Sox acquired him was definitely worth more than Torres today.
That trade didn’t work out for the Sox. So be careful on your Yankees prospects hogging. We can certainly write a list of great Yankees prospects that didn’t amount to squat.
All you have to do is open any trade talks with the Yankees and people will post a number of their names.
When you look at say the Betts trade you have to look at the value at the time. Not 3 years later. 3 years later you can see who won.
Tigers3232
Price’s regression did not really get horrible til after the trade. He had a bit of a down season in 2019 and a pretty good season in 2018. After the trade he opted out of 2020 and then never really added value from there. That was all post trade, so the notion that it was a pure salary dump just is not reality.
bullred
Soto and Tatis Jr. for Bichette and Guerrero Jr. and Manoah.
websoulsurfer
Joel, because only Volpe is a top 50 type prospect. Dominguez is #74 and he is out most of 2024 while collecting service time. Not a good combo. Jones is #73. The others are lower.
BaseballisLife
There is a reason no one uses Fangraphs for scouting grades.
One guy cannot grade thousands of prospects.
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Lifetime supply of authentic New York Pizza because California Kitchen Pizza just doesn’t cut it.
Jasson Dominguez or Spencer Jones
Drew Thorpe
It should be pointed out I know nothing about Yankees prospects. I had to Google their top 30 prospects. I know about Dominguez. Also since it’s Soto is a rental I don’t think the Friars are getting 5 or 6 players they gave up for Soto.
larkraxm
One year rental shouldn’t cost Yankees as much as Padres paid. Two major league ready prospects and then either King or Schmidt gets it done probably. Would suck to loose King, but this is Juan Soto in Yankee Stadium we are talking about.
BaseballisLife
It won’t. The Padres gave up 2 top 10 overall prospects, another that became a top 10 overall prospect, another top 100 prospect, and two more good prospects.
It will take 2 top 50 prospects plus at least one more in the top ten or so of any team that wants to trade for Soto.
OIC2021
Bieber, Josh Naylor, and Brennan are heading to San Diego for Soto
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
The Braves certainly wouldn’t “Juan” him…
Joel P
Best fit in free agency perhaps. Not for a trade this offseason.
Shadow_Banned
Exactly, the Yankees are foolish enough to trade for locker room duds and cancers. LOCKER ROOM duds. Not on the field duds; what that means is neurotic Primadonnas like Stanton and Soto who seem to give a rats a$$ about anything but themselves.
larkraxm
Stanton isn’t a problem in the locker room? What are you talking about? Are you a Yankees fan? He is always respectful and accountable. It sucks that he is hurt so often, but he has not been a bad Yankee.
drasco036
I don’t see any team making sense for Soto. He isn’t a guy you plug into a line up, you build that line up around him. Learn from the Padres, you don’t build line ups around baseball card stats.
Shadow_Banned
It’s like trading for Westbrook. Sure he can give you 18 points off like 40 shots tho. Those are the guys you want to AVOID. They make your team worse not better.
Brew’88
please stop with the Soto Westbrook comparisons
larkraxm
Spoken like a true Marlins fan. What does that even mean? Those stats on his card were accumulated playing and winning baseball games. So you are suggesting that Juan Soto can only be added to an expansion team with no other players on the roster. Yankee Stadium was built for hitters like Soto and he could be plugged into every line up in baseball.
Shadow_Banned
That proposition satisfies my intuition that he needs to be added to an expansion team.
I’m a Dodger fan.
Also, sure you can have hitters. The lakers had hitters with Lebron, A.D and Westbrook and look how horribly they played together.
It’s about chemistry which I suspect Soto drains.
larkraxm
He has been on a championship team. He is 25. Ill bet he didn’t like losing in loser town, but I don’t think you have any proof that he is detrimental to team chemistry.
Shadow_Banned
It’s my guess he’s a bad locker room guy. You have guys like Seager, Betts, Freeman, Adolis García. And all those guys go up there do their thing.
Where as Soto goes up there grabbing his crotch, show boaty.
It’s my guess that he’s closer to James Harden, Russell Westbrook, than he is Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
You catch my drift
larkraxm
I do catch your drift. I think that the clubhouse culture in San Diego with Tatis and his antics are a bit different from what is happening in New York. The Yankees don’t have any home run hats or props or that kind of carrying on like a little leaguer hitting his first home run. He would benefit from a more professional atmosphere, perhaps. Also, this isn’t the NBA. The rosters are a lot larger in MLB, and one person doesn’t have the same impact on team chemistry.
Blue Baron
@Shadow_Banned: What expansion team? There haven’t been any since 1998.
Shadow_Banned
@Barron any expansion team like The Tennessee Tornadoes for example.
Just keep him the hell out of LA or any great franchise.
Unclemike1526
Please stop talking about the Cubs being one of the best fits. The Cubs have their 2 Corner OF’s signed for the next 3 years with NTC’s. HE’S NOT A FIT AT ALL! For better or worse the Cubs are stuck with Suzuki and Happ. Please stop this nonsense.
Javia135
@CaptainJudge99
MLB.com says that a Yankees package of Drew Thorpe, Randy Vasquez, Michael King and Oswaldo Peraza probably would NOT be enough without a potential star-level prospect so…what else do you have?
mlb.com/news/juan-soto-trade-proposals
Gwynning
Best odds? He stays in San Diego. Send us your best offers and we’ll listen though!
Captain-Judge99
He’s probably not staying in SD. The Padres would be wise to trade him, if he’s not staying long-term.
Gwynning
Dominguez, Florial and Michael King. We don’t have to make the trade, but how bad do you want him for ’24?
Dustyslambchops23
Here’s the thing, in this market with the lack of impact players, the Padres are absolutely going to get close to a package like that.
redsox for_life
Dominguez, volpe, king and torres
Captain-Judge99
C’mon you can get a better package then that as a rental. Padres obviously will need a outfielder, and a couple of pitchers. Pereira, Schmidt, Vasquez/Brito. Seem fair without an extension. Florial is a defensive replacement.(not much value) I doubt the Yankees trade Dominguez or King. Ron Marinaccio is a possibility though.
Gwynning
You gotta make the trade before you talk Extension! Now, what’s your best offer Cap?
Pads Fans
Gwynning. Not even close to enough. Dominguez will miss most of 2024. Florial is not any good period, and King is a reliever.
Gwynning
I know, I was just curious what Cap would say. Add Volpe to my package and we can talk earnestly without a callback.
Simm
Gwynning, if the Yankees offer what cap did he won’t be a yankee I promise you that.
Rsox
The Padres need another SS on the roster?
Gwynning
Rsox- Ha-Seong fills in at 3rd for a couple months next year. Volpe can play 2nd until Bogey moves, or vice-versa. Figure it out in ST.
Captain-Judge99
@Gwynning- I need a 72 hour window lst for an extension, before we talk shop. If an extension is signed then Spencer Jones, Everson Pereira, Chase Hampton/Drew Thorpe, Randy Vasquez/Jhony Brito.
Rsox
And Cronenworth? Or are they still set on him playing First Base?
Simm
On that case cron would be playing first. Though I don’t see volpe a padre
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
Gwynning, please leave your package out of this…:)
Blue Baron
King did an excellent job as a starter in the second half.
Captain-Judge99
@Gwynning- Not Volpe. Maybe George Lombard. I think he’s from SD? The native son comes home. Nice story and ring to it. Lol.
Pads Fans
Add in another player for Torres and you might have a deal. Brito.. Torres wouldn’t crack the Padres infield.
Pads Fans
King will be 29 years old and was basically a swingman in 2023. Just say no to crack.
drasco036
Padres owner just died, they had to borrow 50 million to cover payroll, asked for 100 but MLB nixed it because their debt was too high. You DO have to trade Soto.
PadresWSChamps2024
Dominguez will miss most if not all of 2024 and that does hurt his value but doesn’t eliminate it. For me, he is a must if they trade Juan to the Yankees.
PadresWSChamps2024
The $50m loan wasn’t to cover payroll it was taken out after payroll had already been paid out.
Simm
They didn’t turn them down because their debt was too high. They said they didn’t need it so they didn’t approve it. The bank wouldn’t offer 100m if they didn’t show the cash flow to repay it.
Get some better facts.
drasco036
Ok. So they paid payroll and still asked to borrow 100 million, why? Because they made money?
PadresWSChamps2024
Idk what the loan was for but we know with 100% certainty that it couldn’t have been for payroll.
drasco036
Totally makes sense. I always take out high interest loans for no reason.
Pads Fans
So Volpe, Dominguez, and another top Yankees prospect?
drasco036
MLB turned them down, get YOUR facts straight. Padres asked to borrow 100 million, the bank said okay because no bank would turn down 100 million dollar loan when a team is worth 20 times that, MLB said the Padres debt was too high and only allowed them 50 million.
Gwynning
Across Park and up K St. is Tailgate Park- this got renovated as well as right field. It is assumed by many that the loan was for this. It has also been said that Gruepner was giving Saint Seidler some respectful distance during this time period. This is to say, they weren’t discussing financial minutiae. We can all understand.
drasco036
It’s cute you don’t know how equity loans work though. Still renting?
drasco036
“It was in January that Padres CEO Erik Greupner acknowledged the team was not operating at a profit and was attempting to find out how much it could grow revenue and at what level it could comfortably keep its payroll.”
“The Padres are expected to trim their payroll by $50 million or more for 2024, in part because they have reached the limit of their allowable debt. Even at around $200 million, they should rank in the top 10 in payroll.”
“The Padres were also among the teams that lost its regional sports network when Diamond Sports Group effectively folded Bally Sports San Diego in May. The Padres’ contract with BSSD paid it approximately $50 million a year. In 2023, MLB covered at least 80 percent of that. The league will produce Padres games again in ‘24. It is not known how much the league will subsidize and how much the Padres will receive from advertising revenue, but it will be far less than $50 million.”
End scene
Gwynning
Found Acee’s burner! What do I win, boys?
=)
Javia135
These teams just don’t match up well for a trade. The Padres need a replacement LF and controllable SP for 2024. The Yankees have neither.
Dominguez-cannot play OF in 2024
Spencer-not ready
Pereira- failed prospect. Put up a -.6 WAR over less than 1/5 of a season. That translates to -3.0 WAR over a full season. No.
Schmidt-low quality #5 starter
Hampton-not ready
Thorpe-not ready
These teams just don’t match up. Soto will be going elsewhere.
Javia135
You can ask for a 72 hour negotiation window all you want. You won’t get it. That is up to Soto and he says no.
Deleted Userr
If you need an extension just wait a year until Soto is a FA.
Simm
Yeah they lineup but it’s more like a year from now. Of course the padres could always wait the year for them to be ready. Use the 60m roughly they would have at the min to spend to sign a couple of free agent and make a trade for another.
I still think it’s roughly 50/50 if they trade him or not. The asking price is going to be very high.
BaseballisLife
Cisterra.com/tailgatepark. Maybe this.
BaseballisLife
A quote that is not actually what the Padres CEO said. Tragic that they stooped to that. I guess its why the Athletic is failing.
The article by Acee was shown to be wrong … by Acee himself
DSG defaulted on one of the 6 payments after already paying 2. That much you can read in the bankruptcy proceedings.
MLB only paid 80% of that one lost payment.
Seeing as how the Padres didn’t miss a single day off the air, that means they were getting paid for being on TV. It also means that DSG was not getting that money. Maybe they are not getting paid 100% of the $26 million they would have been paid by DSG for the rest of the season, but certainly more than zero.
The Padres also became the 1st team that got to sell single-team streaming packages on MLB.TV They sold somewhere between 250k and 285k of those at $20 per month.
In the DSG bankruptcy proceedings MLB said that they only made one payment to the Padres.
So much more to say, but not really worth it since you won’t read it.
Captain-Judge99
Be really careful with all that crack
Brew88
The Padres were 3rd in MLB in attendance even with 3 games in Mexico. They are only getting wealthier
websoulsurfer
RSforlife, other than Torres that is a good trade. Maybe instead of Torres, put in Schmidt.
Torres is a rental himself, will make $15 million in 2024, and would not crack the Padres infield.
Captain-Judge99
Forget about Volpe ever being included in a Soto trade that’s definitely not happening, especially for a rental. Pereira, Schmidt, Lombard, Thorpe/Hampton, Vasquez/Brito and maybe Marinaccio. Don’t expect much more then that, unless the Yankees can sign Soto to an extension lst. Then the prospects will get better in a trade.
Deleted Userr
Volpe and Dominguez or bye Felicia.
And Soto isn’t signing an extension. Nor would an extension be at a dollar figure where it would increase his trade value.
Captain-Judge99
It doesn’t matter the Yankees wouldn’t be dealing King anyway, especially with no extension with Soto lst. Marinaccio/Warren would be more expendable though.
Captain-Judge99
Torres is a lot better then you give him credit for. Truthfully I hope the Yankees keep him, and sign him long term. The Padres need outfielders and starting pitching, last time I checked. Gil, Marinaccio, and Warren could be nice young bullpen arms for them also.
Gwynning
This whole thread is now admissible in court, Linds. Thanks?
Captain-Judge99
The Yankees would rather hold on to King. He really wouldn’t be an option being traded, unless Soto signs that $540 million, 12 year extension anyway. Glad you don’t want Michael King, and he isn’t 29 years old either. Smh. The Padres seem to want King though in a package for Soto.
Captain-Judge99
Volpe and Dominguez will not be traded, so let that go. Not happening at all. The Yankees will probably just sign Bellinger, who would be a lot cheaper then Soto. The Yankees would be better off doing that.
Captain-Judge99
Who says so you? It’s up to the Padres not you. You seem to want a lot for an “expensive rental” not happening. San Diego would be lucky to get half of those players on that list. Smh
Captain-Judge99
Unlike the Padres, the Yankees would definitely offer a Soto an extension before a trade. SD has to move him, he’s not staying there long term guy. Forget it.
websoulsurfer
Then the Yankees don’t line up with the Padres for a trade. Without him being included the Yankees don’t have the high-level prospects to get a trade done. All of their prospects are at the bottom of the top 100.
Schmidt and King hold no value at all. Both because of age and lack of performance in multiple seasons in the majors.
Can you even name the last time a team was given a 72-hour window to sign a player to an extension before a trade was finalized? I am not even sure if that is allowed in the CBA.
websoulsurfer
Torres is not as good as Machado, Kim, or Bogaerts and roughly equal to Cronenworth. He is a rental and will cost $15 million. Including him in a trade, any trade, would increase the prospect capital the Yankees would have to send to the other team.
You have yet to name an OF or a pitcher that would make the Padres team, let alone be enough to get Soto in return.
Blue Baron
@Pads Fans: He gave up 88 hits and struck out 127 with a 1.146 WHIP across 104+ innings last year. There’s a lot of upside and a lot to like in numbers like that.
websoulsurfer
King is going into his age 29 season. baseball-reference.com/players/k/kingmi01.shtml
websoulsurfer
That is all good. The Yankees don’t line up well with the Padres in a trade. They just don’t have the prospects or young players that are high enough level to fit the Padres needs or the value of Soto.
The Yankees likely WILL sign Bellinger. He plays CF. He will get 12/250 or more. Maybe much more.
They still need one more OF after signing him.
websoulsurfer
Padres already said they don’t have to trade Soto. Its far more likely that he is on the roster opening day than he is traded.
Captain-Judge99
You are another fan that will be highly disappointed. I’m sorry. It doesn’t matter what you want. Newsflash: It’s what the Padres would want, not you Felicia.
websoulsurfer
He is going into his age 29 season and has a 4.33 ERA in 19 starts over 5 seasons. King is not a valuable trade piece and even the Yankees don’t think he is a starter. They were forced to start him last season because they had no other healthy arms.
BrianStrowman9
Dominguez Florial and King is basically King & Dominguez. Florial is about completely busted.
I hope the Yankees do blow the farm for him. Team is still highly flawed and he might walk in a year.
BrianStrowman9
“king is a reliever”
Like Seth Lugo? Michael King was damn good when they moved him over.
Blue Baron
@websoulsurfer: Well duh, of course they said they don’t have to trade the guy.
That’s a bargaining tactic to maximize leverage in trade talks.
No GM is going to say the team has to or wants to trade any player. Think about it.
Blue Baron
@websoulsurfer: “King is going into his age 29 season.”
And?
drasco036
The Padres do not “have” to trade Soto but if they don’t they won’t have any money to make any additions if they keep him.
Deleted Userr
Then Soto won’t be traded to the Yankes. So let that go. Not happening at all.
Deleted Userr
They can offer all they want. Nobody but you actually thinks Soto is signing an extension.
Rally Goose
@websoulsurfer Off the top of my head, Adrian Gonzalez, R. A. Dickey and Sonny Gray were all traded with extension windows. I generally agree however that Juan Soto is going to roll the dice on free agency. And the whole point of an extension, whether people realize it or not, is to get the player at a discount. At this point, Soto isn’t signing at a discount, especially with a team he has no history with. All of the surplus value from a Soto trade is in 2024.
Brew’88
@drascoo36. At least you got one thing right. The other three assertions are false.
Brew’88
The only need the Yankees provide the Padres regarding a Soto trade is that they’re desperate and more likely to overpay compared to other teams. Unfortunately they lack the currency (MLB ready players who can pitch and play OF).
PadresWSChamps2024
Never said it was for no reason. Just that payroll wasn’t the reason. Teams have a whole bunch of other expenses.
larkraxm
Not that bad. Plus, you are ignoring the fact the team acquiring Soto has greater than or equal to leverage in this situation because the Padres cannot afford to pay Soto 33 million dollars for next year. I think he will get traded to the Yankees and you might get King and Florial, but Dominguez won’t be included.
Deleted Userr
No Dominguez, no trade!
websoulsurfer
Stupid is as stupid says and that is REALLY stupid Lark. Even Acee, the writer that originally claimed that the Padres had to cut payroll has since retracted. TRY to keep up.
BaseballisLife
I would think Bellinger gets much more than $20.8 million AAV. Bet its more like $25-26 million AAV
drprofsps
San Diego is cutting payroll with a major shortage of SP’s. The Padres will be competing with the Rockies for last place!!! But I am a Texas Rangers fan so I don’t care who gets him, he’s overrated.
Gwynning
Thanks for telling us… absolutely nothing, Doc Prof!
mlb fan
“He’s overrated”..A pretty darn good player, not top 10, but also “overrated” because he’s a weak defender and baserunner who’s not nearly worth the 300M+ he’ll likely command.
Gwynning
28 WAR before his 25th birthday.
Career 157 OPS+.
Perennial leader in BBs/OBP.
Which part seems over-rated again?
Pads Fans
$500 million he will command.
Longtimecoming
Looking at next year’s FA offensive players, the runner up to Ohtani will easily go 50 mil less than whatever Ohtani gets. 450, 500 or whatever it is.
He will only be 26 and he already established himself as a generational offensive player.
mlb fan
“Which part seems overrated”.. Mostly the part where you have to pay him like a generational, multi talented star when he’s not really that. He’s a one tool guy without speed or defensive acumen. His hype and Wow factor easily leads the league, but his actual value is much lower than guys like Betts, Freeman, Olson, Trout, Semien, Acuna or even Adolis Garcia, because all those other guys are versatile, highly athletic and multi talented, while also being exceptional with the bat.
Gwynning
Fair enough, mlb.
Dustyslambchops23
You’re paying him like a generational talent because of his early success and age.
This is a sound argument MLB Fan if he was going to command more in AAV compared to other generational players, but chances are he’ll get around the going rate of 35-40 per year, just with a longer deal. The fact that he will get 500 million has just as much to do with the fact that he’s going to reach FA at 26 vs him being exceptionally good.
I mean Rendon is getting 38 a year, Soto has such a consistent floor, it’s a good bet he is going to add significant value if he can stay on the field
Simm
Yeah Soto will be paid big time but a big part of that is he will be 26 as a free agent. Someone could end up giving him up to 15 years. 5 x 30 and you are at 450m. Soto is worth more the. 30 so don’t fret about 500m.
stymeedone
He’s Adam Dunn 2.0. No team is considering him because they have an OF opening. They are considering him because of the bat. His salary projection, however, removes that value. Other positions will be weaker because good players cost and you spent it all on one player. His defense and base running are poor. He should DH. His pride (and salary) will force you to play him in the field. $40MM just doesn’t buy what it used to. Line up here for the cashiers window!
M.C.Homer
For $500 million he better be able to pitch too.
Juan is not worth Shohei money.
Shohei may not be worth it either if he ends up like Syndergaard
Gwynning
Shohei might get it for 10 years though. Soto would be for 15 or 16.
“In theory”
M.C.Homer
Yup, I agree on Shohei. His marketability kind of makes up some of that cost.
Juan probably should have taken Washington’s offer.
But he’ll probably get offered at least that much from the Yankees next off season.
Juan is in the drivers seat
runningwithnailclippers
You may have to use the force to have any team pay that much for Soto.
Dustyslambchops23
Man, it’s okay not to like Soto but the Dunn comparison is absolutely outrageous.
Soto is a career 154 wrc+ batter, Dunn finished with 123.
Soto has ALREADY surpassed Dunn’s total value in 5000 fewer plate appearances lol
RSmith
“Dunn finished with 123”
But Dunn had a very similar OPS after 8 seasons, which is where Soto is now. Kind of unfair to add Dunn’s age 30 and above years, when making a comparison. Soto is a better hitter (Dunn struck out far too much). But its not “absolutely outrageous”.
Simm
Adam dunn’s best season .266/388/569 147 ops+.
Soto…career 157 ops+ and just turned 25, hasn’t even hit his prime.
Great comp though. Thanks for playing.
Simm
He isn’t getting Ohtani money. Ohtani will get 500+ m at 50m a year for 10 years. Who btw can’t pitch right now and might not ever be the same/
Soto will get 500 over 15 years which is barely over 30m a year.
RSmith
Its almost as bad as comparing Betts and Soto. Lol. Thanx for playing. Better luck next time.
Dustyslambchops23
Soto has already surpassed Dunn in career WAR.
If your argument is that Soto is going to turn in to a negative WAR player in the middle of his 20s, then yes it’s absolutely outrageous.
Longtimecoming
RS while you clearly don’t have a clue, no one is comparing Betts and Soto as players. It’s the Betts trade and the proposed Soto trade that is being compared. Seriously, when you brought up Dunn your credibility tanked.
Pads Fans
At his worst Soto has been more valuable than Adam Dunn at his best.
Simm
Nah, Soto has been a better hitter than Betts as well.
RSmith
Longtime: “no one is comparing Betts and Soto as players”
Copied and Pasted from above:
“So Betts basically got back 3 top 50 prospects in baseball.
So yes the Betts trade is about as close as a comp as you are going to get.”
It literally says “comp”. I think its you that doesnt have a clue. And I didnt bring up Dunn. Do you have any reading retention skills?
runningwithnailclippers
Has he ever seen Dunn play any defense back in the day? I am a Reds fan (and loved the Big Donkey) but they really needed the DH in the NL back then. Awful… just awful in the field. So many stories about Dunn that are probalby not appropriate for this forum too.
Pads Fans
Soto will get far more than the Nationals offered. The Nationals offer was heavily backloaded and contained $110 million in deferred money so it was worth far less than $440 million.
Soto will get 14-15 years depending on if its an extension or in a year as a FA. He is going to get at least $34-36 million AAV.
Brew’88
just stop with the Soto v Dunn comparison
BaseballisLife
No he didn’t. Dunn was at 130 OPS+ after 8 seasons. Soto is at 157 OPS+ today.
Dunn was 28. Soto just finished his age 24 season.
You just blew any credibility you ever had in one comment.
Gwynning
“He’s Adam Dunn 2.0” – stymeedone, regarding Juan Soto
My favorite comedians didn’t make me laugh as much as that did today!
ASapsFables
@stymeedone:
Adam Dunn is a comp to Dave Kingman aside from his ability to draw walks: https://stathead.com/baseball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2_hint=&player_id2_select=Adam+Dunn&player_id2=dunn–001ada&idx=&year_min=&player_id1=kingma001dav&seasons_type=&request=1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=br&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=kingmda01
Juan Soto might be this era’s closest comp to Ted Williams.
Rally Goose
Talk like Yoda you must.
Captain-Judge99
Yes you are absolutely right, probably a $100 million more. Try $45 million-a-year with an extension. Maybe even more. Lol.
BrianStrowman9
Soto shouldn’t get half a billion. I think you’ll need to provide defensive value (or pitch and hit) to hit that number.
He’s going to get somewhere around Trout money because he’s an incredible hitter and age is really working on his side.
larkraxm
He is set to make 33 million this year. A Yankees team that paid 35 million to Josh Donaldson and Aaron Hicks last season doesn’t see that as overpaying for a one tool guy. They paid more than that for two zero tool guys.
larkraxm
Plus, with salary inflation, in 10 to 15 years 50 million AAV will not even be a top ten salary.
Brew’88
professor of non-critical thinking
Balk
To be honest that’s probably exactly what’s going to happen. He stays put. Any team that would give up star level talent for one year is crazy. Wait till the offseason and try and land him next year.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
According to my majestical math skills, if the Padres should trade Soto, they should expect whatever is the equivalent to 33% of the value of the player package the Padres traded to the Nationals to obtain him. 1/3 x Total Value of (Hassel, Abrams, etc. etc. etc)
Simm
The padres had him for about 60% of the time so they will get back about 40% plus add in soto having a monster contract year and let’s call it 50%. That’s before a team like the Yankees get desperate.
Have you all seen how Cashman has been handling the media. That dude might as well be a dead man walking. He gonna do whatever he can not to suck next year.
larkraxm
33 million reasons why he will be traded. Padres were taking out loans to pay salaries at the end of last year.
Balk
Larkraxm…that’s a pretty good assessment, but it won’t be for what some are thinking.
DUCKFACE2345
Reds
runningwithnailclippers
Man… I kind of wish they would trade for him, but unless they can rip off the Pads, it is not going to happen. Would probably take Marte, Petty and Collier at least. Maybe even a current starter on the IF.
Gwynning
The prospects are nice and I think you’re barking up the right tree, per se… but I suspect the Pads would need more League ready guys.
I’m thinking Lodolo & Steer & maybe a nice low guy like Collier and we compensate with a nice prospect that is negotiable at worst.
runningwithnailclippers
I think what really holds back the trade is that the Reds would probably only want to make the deal if they can then sign the player. And, sadly, the Reds are controlled by King Kroger.
Steer would make sense for you guys. Lodolo has potential but shaky injury history. Collier is currently a bit undervalued due to his hitting too many grounders but he is working on elevating more.
Deleted Userr
Soto isn’t signing an extension so you trade whatever you feel 1 year of Soto at $33m plus a QO comp pick is worth.
baked mcbride
C’Mon, Baltimore!
Catuli Carl
I think if Jed doesn’t get one of Soto, Ohtani, Bellinger, or maybe Alonso, Cubs fans will see this off-season as somewhat of a failure despite what he does on the pitching side.
Obviously my preference would be Ohtani and I’m not a big fan of one year rentals, but $33M for one year of Soto is a bargain frankly.
1984wasntamanual
Cubs’ fans are stupid, so you may be correct.
Catuli Carl
You must be a Cubs fan then
Joel P
Cubs could get Yamamoto, Snell or even Montgomery. And shoot don’t they need a 3b?
Ma4170
Well, not that this means squat, but i had hoskins and ERod going to the cubs in the contest.
Joel P
That seems reasonable to me
runningwithnailclippers
When did the Cubs get all this cash?
Ma4170
Apparently it pays to be a baby bear
Captain-Judge99
No extension for Soto, then no Spencer Jones, Michael King or Oswald Peraza. I can see Everson Pereira, Clarke Schmidt, Chase Hampton/Drew Thorpe, Randy Vasquez/Jhony Brito being offered with no extension though.
Seamaholic
Then it doesn’t happen. Padres can save whatever money they need to save in other ways, and just give Soto a QO after the season. Some team will offer way more than Hampton/Vasquez anyway.
Captain-Judge99
No team is offering as much as that without an extension lst.
Seamaholic
Watch. He’s a top five player in baseball and you always get a leg up on free agency talks if you have a successful season with a guy the year before.
mlb fan
“He’s a top 5 player”..Soto is pretty good but is not even a top 10 MLB player. There’s probably 5 OFs alone(Betts, Tatis, Kyle Tucker, Adolis Garcia, Trout etc..) better than Soto and when you count the top 15 all-around players in MLB, he ain’t it. The BEST players in sports are ALWAYS 2 way players, not one way players who only do ONE thing.
sdpadsfan11
@cj99
With Scott Boras being his agent an extension won’t happen. the Yankees have the ability to sign him financially when he becomes a free agent.
Simm
You mention trout over Soto. Nobody in their right mind would take trout over Soto. Not even sure everyone would take Betts because of the age difference. Soto is 25 years old. He hasn’t even hit his prime yet.
He is like the same age and the O’s star catcher.
stymeedone
This close to FA, unless someone tops the Nationals previous offer, he won’t be signing an extension.
Captain-Judge99
Yes, I definitely agree with what you just said 100%. I definitely think Soto is in the top 5 in baseball. At least offensively he is. Just keep in mind coming cheaper in a trade, he’ll likely still cost $540 million or so, over 12 years. (45 million annually)
marinersblue96
Tatis was suspended for a year has missed a lot of time due to injuries and will likely miss more. Trout??? Maybe 7 years ago. Kyle Tucker is within his realm but Soto is still a tick above. Not one GM would take Garcia over Soto.
Brew88
Time for Mahones to play some defense mlb?
Brew88
Ted Williams couldn’t run or field like Trout but he was better
Pads Fans
The Padres don’t need to save money.
The type of 15/500+ extension Soto will command is not going to affect the type of prospects one way or the other.
Javia135
@Captain-Judge99
4 times zero still equals zero.
TrillionaireTeamOperator
Yankees make the most sense on paper in terms of needs, holes in their roster, financial wherewithal, etc. I think Torres plus a few prospects could do it- primarily speaking, Torres would replace the majority of Soto’s offensive contributions and would be less than half the price next year and less than half the price on an extension.
NEsports
Pads do not need another infielder are my thoughts.
Captain-Judge99
No need for Gleyber Torres? Torres is a great player. Hopefully the Yankees keep him. No need for Oswald Peraza or George Lombard for the Pods?
Seamaholic
Torres is just as much a rental as Soto. He’s worth very little other than salary relief. He also might not make the Padres’ starting infield, unless at 1B.
Pads Fans
Torres would not make the Padres starting 9.
BaseballisLife
I am sure he would make the Padres starting 9. He just wouldn’t make their infield.
Bruin1012
The Mariners need that guy for a run this year and easily have the young pitching that the Pads want. If the Mariners are willing to trade young pitching like Woo or Miller and Hancock and another younger piece it will be tough to beat that package. He’s probably just a rental still the Mariners can easily outbid the Mariners if they want him badly enough. You have to remember the Pads aren’t rolling over on the season they aren’t rebuilding they would imo quality young controllable big league pitching like Woo or Miller you throw in Hancock that’sone probably both guys slide right into the rotation and the best part Seattle isn’t even going to miss them they are stacked with pitching they can go for it for a year.
Simm
Yeah the mariners lineup well with the padres. I just don’t smell the same desperation coming from the mariners as I do the Yankees.
Cashman reeks of desperation and I think he will give the haul the padres want I return.
Yanks2
I can’t picture Soto in a Yankee uniform honestly
Pads Fans
Woo would not be close to enough. Have to headline the deal with Gilbert
Bruin1012
Gilbert is laughable for one year of Soto not going to happen what I said Woo, Hancock and lottery ticket is overpay for one year of Soto. Like I said unless the Pads get realistic on what he’s really worth then enjoy him this year and then enjoy the comp pick if ownership is as unrealistic as the fans.
Pads Fans
Woo and Hancock is not close to enough.
Realistc is a 3.o WAR MLB player with at least 4 years of team control as the headliner. A top 50 prospect. Another MLB ready prospect that is in a position of need for the Padres.
That is what Betts brought back and that trade included the Dodgers taking on $48 million in salary.
Woo is not top 100, let alone top 50. Never has been considered a top prospect. Hancock was a 50 FV back of the top 100 prospect in 2022 and he has not set the world on fire this season. He is no longer top 100. His CEILING is a #5 starter and its not likely he ever attains that.
So you are way off base with that proposal.
Javia135
No. Gilbert is way too much. Something like Woo and Kelenic would work.
BaseballisLife
I think you are right about that Pads. Gilbert is the 3.0 WAR player with team control that pretty much everyone is saying will be necessary to headline the deal.
If Gilbert is the headliner it may not take more than just another top 100 prospect and a lottery ticket type.
Deleted Userr
@BaseballisLife “Pads” is you lol.
Brew88
The Padres aren’t rebuilding and their farm is once again well-stocked. The only reason for trading Soto is to increase their chances of winning in 2024, which generally argues against trading him, unless they get very good MLB pitching in return but they could perhaps do that with trades or FA.
Deleted Userr
You’re not increasing your chances of winning in 2024 by trading a 25 y/o Ted Williams who is about to pop OFF in his contract year.
Brew88
25 y/o Ted put up terrible numbers, so did 24 and 26 y/ o T. Williams zero hits in three years!
Captain Dunsel
Philly already has one Soto; I can’t see them raiding the farm system for one year of another. Now if Trout becomes available, that might be a different story.
Rsk3228
I think Trout is available. Angels would be crazy not to trade him.
Captain Dunsel
Castellanos, Rojas, Abel, and 2 minor leaguers not named Crawford with Philly taking Trout’s entire contract.
marinersblue96
Rsk3228 – Angels should trade Trout just like they should of traded Ohtani last year. The problem is they have the worst owner in MLB and he won’t get out of the way of what is best for the organization.
M.C.Homer
Only if Mike wants it.
Full no trade clause.
Arte and the Angels have no control here
Captain Dunsel
He would be as popular as Harper in Philly and be made an honorary Eagle. If he wants to win he should let Philadelphia welcome him home.
M.C.Homer
I’m an Angel fan of 52 years and would love to see Mike go to Philly, get them over the hump and take them to the top
M.C.Homer
Angels…These thoughts put in perspective how dire things are..
Mike couldn’t be happy either..
Let’s say the Angels traded for Soto and signed Yamamoto, would they be any better off in 2024 than last year?
Maybe marginally if Yamamoto is the real deal.
If they signed both Yamamoto and Ohtani, would they be any better off in 2024 than last year?
Maybe…again, Yamamoto is not a sure thing.
In any scenario the Angels can’t really get better. Even if they spent 75-80 Mil a year on these 2. Maybe in 2025 if Shohei returns to what he was pitching wise.
Too much maybe here…
10centBeerNight
Expecting NYY and NYM to make considerable offers. This site seems to buy the cover story that Cohen is scaling back pursuit of elite tier talent and $. That was a ruse to get Scherzer approval for a deal. That said NYY have to go after him. Club has to right the ship tho their issues seem much deeper than one fix
Simm
The Mets should be all in on soto. They can definitely extend him and he fits if they are trying to win next year or the next 10 years.
If you let him go to like the Yankees or Red Sox then there is a chance they sign him long term before he even becomes a free agent. I get it’s not likely but it’s more likely the zero percent of you don’t have him next year.
rct
I don’t expect the Mets to be in on him. They’ve been reluctant to trade away young talent the last two years and don’t think that’ll change with Stearns in charge. On top of that, their biggest need is pitching, so I think they’ll spend the bulk of their money on that vs acquiring/extending Soto.
Line up-wise, my prediction is they run McNeil and Marte in the corners with Mauricio and Baty at 2B and 3B. Then pray it all holds together and that the latter two, along with Acuña and Drew Gilbert, will continue to develop into solid major leaguers.
But then again, it’s Cohen’s checkbook so who knows.
CenterWingPolitics
So, hear me out.
Padres need a bit of help in the rotation for next season and could use a high quality starter. Not to mention a solid reliever with Hader departing.
How about
Braves trade Max Fried and AJ Minter to SD for Soto
Braves then trade Smith-Shawver, Ritchie, Grissom, and one more not named Waldrep for Dylan Cease.
Braves have a stacked bullpen without Minter after they signed Lopez.
Rotation could still use another starter but you can truly look at a reclamation like Montas.
Acuña
Soto
Riley
Olson
Best top four in MLB?
Gwynning
Pass, but thanks for the call.
Simm
On top of the padres pass I think you are offering to much for cease. The dues had one great year and the rest he is a 4th starter on a good rotation.
Captain-Judge99
@Gwynning-,great sense of humor. I definitely here you. Start thinking of Spencer Jones+ instead of Dominguez, and you probably got a deal done if an extension can be signed lst. $540 million over 12 years, seems very fair for Soto.
Gwynning
Cap, obviously I can’t speak for Juan player or another… but I strongly suspect Mr. Soto would sign that extension tomorrow.
Idosteroids
AA dosent deal with Boras clients.
YaySports
You found a trade neither team would do lol
rememberthecoop
I’m a little surprised that the Cubs are so close to last year’s salary already. They lost over 20M with Heyward off the books, and another 21M with Stroman opting out.
Bryzzo2016
They also lost Bellinger’s 20 off the books. That’s 60 million alone off the books from just those 3 players.
iml12
They have 20 million in dead money. Bote, Mancini, Boxberger, bellingers buyout. 5-6 guys starting arbitration and Nico extension. They still have a bunch coming off next year and shouldn’t give two cares about going over the luxury tax.
ron_karate
If it’s too short sighted for the Angels, Soto is perfect.
M.C.Homer
The Angels have nothing left to trade for him
James Midway
He is staying in SD. But it’s funny to see these proposals. Yankees fans be like take out single A guy, a fringe 40 man guy and a pair of gym socks.
Gwynning
I hear “Dudes, the sweat in those socks is Aaron freakin’ Judge’s though, bros!” in a thick Brooklyn accent.
YankeesBleacherCreature
We’re even includin’ a couple of my uncle Sal’s famous Italian heroes. You take one bite… fuggedaboutit. Ya gonna wish you’s had mo’ Sotos to trade us.
Gwynning
More gabagool or no deal!
CardsFan57
It doesn’t look like the Padres will move Soto at least until the deadline. The Cardinals are not giving up anything of value for a few months of a player who already turned down $400 million. I don’t see any team other than big market teams giving up much for Soto at this point. I’d rather the Cardinals get decent prospects outside of the top 100 for O’Neill and Carlson than Soto. They aren’t getting any top 100 prospects for O’Neill or Carlson.
Wagner>Cobb
As it stands, the offense has more than enough depth and upside. The focus should be on opportunistic bullpen and rotation upgrades, though the latter is unlikely.
ih8tepaperstraws
The offense is weak, especially in the outfield. It has zero rbi production. Walker led the group with 51 and he could likely slide to 1B to replace Goldschmidt. Their biggest need besides a major league rotation is an outfield bat. I think Goldschmidt’s September decline continues into 2024, as history has shown us first basemen fall off a cliff at age 36. So even more need for an RBI producer. I’m in the minority with Eduardo Perez’s thought of Walker for Soto. The Cardinals would have to be all in on resigning Soto no matter the cost if they made that trade. So when you assume he is a Cardinal long term, the trade makes sense. I don’t think Soto will top the $440mm offer he received from the Nats if he hits free agency, but the Cardinals would have to top it if they traded for him.
Wagner>Cobb
Walker isn’t playing 1B next year. Goldy and Arenado are only 1 year removed from elite, MVP caliber, seasons. Older, yes. But it’s not impossible to imagine them being more productive next year. Contreras hit as expected last year, so he’s another plus bat. Donovan, Nootbaar, Walker, and Gorman are all talented hitters with a lot of upside. I want them to wait another year to see how these guys hit before spending money on a hitter(s) since they will likely need that money to continue filling out the rotation.
Cardsfan21
I’m with you. I see a devastatingly painful trade for Glasnow or Cease before Soto. Our offense is good enough.
CardsFan57
I wouldn’t mind a Cease trade as long as it doesn’t subtract offense from the big league roster. I see trades for relievers before starters. There are a lot of MLB ready pitchers in Memphis for injury back up.
Joel P
I dont see a Cease or Glasnow trade at this point. Soto I highly doubt but just for fun.
Soto
For
Matz
Liberatore
Graceffo
Carlson
Jordan 5
Nationals. lol. He’s not getting anything close to $440
Pads Fans
He is getting more. Not backloaded and without deferrals. Something around 15/500 or more if its an extension.
splooz
Nats offer didn’t include any backloaded or deferred money. He still passed. Others spot on.
websoulsurfer
Nationals offer was heavily backloaded with no seasons in which he made even what he made last season until year 4 when he would have made $20 million and $110 million of Nationals 14 year, $440 million offer was deferred.
That is why he declined. If they had offered that amount of money with annual salaries that equaled the $31 million AAV he might have signed.
Instead, he made $17 million in 2021, $23 million in 2022, and will make $32-33 million in 2024.
Captain-Judge99
If Soto signs an extension lst, I can see Spencer Jones in a package to SD, without a extension the prospects won’t be as good.
Simm
You keep saying the same stuff. We get it you don’t want Soto.
Captain-Judge99
No I definitely want Soto but with an extension signed lst though, without that I switch my sights on Cody Bellinger. No extension, then no deal.
Pads Fans
You act like Spencer Jones is a great catch. He is a back end of the top 100 prospect. His 55 FV is barely above league average and he struck out 32% of the time at high A and AA with a barely above average OPS and meh power. Just because he is the Yankees best prospect doesn’t mean he is a great prospect.
As a Padres fan I think Marsee is as good or better than Jones and he couldn’t crack the Padres top 10 prospects.
If the Yankees want Soto, and from everything I have read the GM’s have never even spoken about him, then they need to lead their offer with an impact prospect. They only have Volpe that fits that description.
Don’t float garbage like a 28 year old Schmidt that has a 4.36 ERA in 4 tries at the majors. Don’t try to say KING, like he is any good. He is going into his age 29 season and in 5 seasons in the majors he has never been more than a reliever. Don’t even try to include Torres in any trade proposal because he could not even make the Padres infield at all and he is relatively expensive.
So start with Volpe and build from there.
websoulsurfer
Yankees fans always think their prospects are better than they really are. Jones is poor bet to be a major league starter. He strikes out far too much and he simply doesn’t have the power to overcome that handicap.
I agree that Marsee is better. Great pitch recognition, good speed, great instincts both in the field and on the basepaths. He will jump into the top 100 on most prospect lists.
From what I understand, the Padres have not spoken to any POBO/GM about Soto. All of this talk is premature. But you know what, we are talking about it. Look at all the posts on this article.
Captain-Judge99
If you can get Spencer Jones in a package for Soto consider yourself lucky. Just forget about your delusion of trying to get Dominguez and Volpe back for Soto. That’s not something that would even be offered. The Padres are not getting a haul back for a rental. So let that go already.
websoulsurfer
You must be really drunk. Maybe step away from the keyboard until tomorrow. You are sounding really, really stupid.
YankeesBleacherCreature
He’s repped by Boras and has already reportedly turn down a Nats extension so let’s just put that notion to rest. Soto will be a free agent next season. Padres will most certainly ask for multiple arms in any trade.
Deez Cardinals
The Cardinals have the money to sign a Soto long term. They have the players to package. They are sold on mediocre transactions and unfortunately that ship has sailed on them
acoss13
I think Cashman pulls the trigger and gets Soto. They need lefty bats, and Soto fits the mold perfectly.
Rsox
The problem is the Padres are not going to gift Soto to the Yankees and Cashman has hesitated at every turn to trade prospects for anyone in recent years
Pads Fans
Just because the Yankees need LHB doesn’t mean the Yankees have what the Padres need.
acoss13
The Yankees might hit the desperation button and send a fair package to San Diego for Soto. I think it definitely happens if Cashman can’t sign Bellinger or Yamamoto, he needs to add to that roster, the fanbase is quite upset with that front office at the moment.
websoulsurfer
I think the Cubs make a better match with the Padres. As you said, PCA, Horton, and another prospect or two for Soto.
PCA is in SD out of camp and even if his bat takes a while to come around, he is a great fielding CF. Horton is likely in the majors by mid-season.
Padres can then focus on signing Lee to play LF and it gives them the flexibility to go all in on more than one high-level FA pitcher.
It also gives them more prospect capital to go after Luzardo or Garrett from the Marlins as has been rumored to be in the works.
Pads Fans
Best bet is he is staying in San Diego and signs an extension in March.
The cost of acquiring him would be steep. It is going to hurt the MLB team to acquire Soto. Half the teams you mentioned don’t have the players to make it happen. Plus the Padres have better prospects than most of those teams and almost all of them finished in AA or higher last season, so they are not dumping him for just any prospects or suspect MLB players.
Its going to take a MLB player that is already an above average MLB starting player and cost controlled for 4-6 years (or a top 10 prospect that is MLB ready), a top 50 prospect that is close to MLB ready, and another 50 FV or higher prospect that is MLB ready and at a position of need for the Padres.
Not one of the teams mentioned other than the Orioles has a top 10 prospect and I don’t see them trading Holliday. mlb.com/prospects/top100/
These are the kind of players that the teams that are considered the top tier of possibilities would need to headline a deal for Soto.
Cubs fans, are you willing to give up PCA and Horton ?
Yankees fans are you willing to give up Volpe and Jones or Perreira?
Mariners fans are you willing to give up Gilbert and Gonzalez?
Rangers fans are you willing to give up Carter and Leiter?
Red Sox fans are you willing to give up Casas and Rafaela?
Many of those headliners I mentioned the Padres would decline because they don’t fill areas of need and the Padres are in win now mode. It does give you an idea of the level of players it will take.
The one that might be the closest is the Mariners. A #3 starter, a prospect at the back half of the top 100 that the Padres are very familiar with because the Mariners play in the same ST complex, and then a prospect like Berroa that is outside the top 100 but MLB ready, and a lottery ticket like Martinez might get something done.
Longtimecoming
Pads Fans – I agree and have thought for awhile Mariners if they don’t get Ohtani is a good fit – hope he isn’t traded though but as I’ve discussed elsewhere, I’m good if they get a few choice FA’s with the $$’s and a quality package.
An orioles trade would be interesting because they don’t really need all of their elite prospects and will likely have to trade some at some point just because they can’t all play.
stymeedone
Texas would want more than one year of Soto at $33mm for six years of cost controlled Carter. A hellova lot more.
Pads Fans
They won’t get it.
Captain-Judge99
You are setting yourself up for disappointment. I’m sorry.
acoss13
As a Cubs fan, I’d love to get Soto, a package of PCA and some other quality prospects could get it done I think.
Simm
Yeah prob so
JackStrawb
@acoss13 You would absolutely deserve to be fired for dealing away 6 years of PCA, who rates to be a 3 win CFer even if some things don’t break his way, for the right to pay Soto $33m for a single year of his company.
websoulsurfer
If the Cubs were willing to headline a deal with PCA and Horton I think that they could get a deal done for Soto. Will they is the question?
Brew88
@web and Simm. Pads need to make the playoffs in 2024 or Preller (and % of fanbase) won’t be around in 2025/2026 to enjoy PCA and Horton. So I don’t see Preller dealing away 2024 for the future.
websoulsurfer
You are right about that. Preller’s behind is in a sling if the Padres are not in the playoffs in 2024.
With his brother Tom saying that they are going to continue to operate the team in the same manner Peter did and want to fulfill his legacy of bringing a WS championship to San Diego, it makes no sense to trade Soto
Bruin1012
Speaking as a Red Sox fan no I wouldn’t give up Casas by himself for 1 year of Soto and if that’s what Pads fans expect for one year of Soto then he going to be a Pad until at least the trade deadline. If ownership gets realistic about what one year of Soto is worth when you factor in his projected 33 million then they will move him. Since I have a good idea on the Mariners as well they would giggle the Pads off the phone if they asked for Gilbert alone not happening. A realistic return for Soto is Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock and another lesser younger piece. That’s a good offer for 1 year of Soto. Woo and probably Hancock would slip right into the rotation and they would get another upside lottery piece it’s really more then 1 year is worth. The Yankees aren’t giving up Volpe for 1 year in fact none of those trade proposals are remotely realistic. If that is what you think your getting for 1 year of Soto enjoy the comp pick when you lose him to next years free agency.
websoulsurfer
Realistic? What did the Red Sox get for Betts?
A player ranked 33rd overall and that had a 3.0 WAR in his rookie season
A player ranked 44th overall that was in AA
A MLB ready player ranked 15th in the Dodgers system
$48 million in salary relief.
That is what is realistic for the Padres to ask for, especially in an offseason that has just 2 good bats available.
websoulsurfer
Forgot to add “since they are not trying to dump $48 million”, that is what is realistic for the Padres to ask for, especially in an offseason that has just 2 good bats available.
Bruin1012
Like I said down further in the comment session Betts was better than Soto. Betts can actually play defense.
Soto is an incredible offensive force but let’s face it he is rapidly becoming a DH. His value isn’t anywhere near Betts. You are talking about 33 million for essentially a DH.
JackStrawb
@Pads Fans That’s lunacy. Soto’s a 5 win DH playing a corner OF slot getting paid 1/$33m, and for that we’re to believe he’ll net…
–a MLB player that is already an above average MLB starting player and cost controlled for 4-6 years
–a top 50 prospect that is close to MLB ready,
—and another 50 FV or higher prospect that is MLB ready and at a position of need for the Padres.
Do you really think Soto is peak Ohtani or Trout? He isn’t. He’s half that. 5 wins is nice to compress into one lineup slot but he’s hardly unique in that regard and it’s an overrated element, anyway, given that this lets you add a replacement level bench guy at the other end of the 26-man roster.
The math is brutal: 5 wins costs roughly $42.5m in FA. Soto provides only $9.5m in surplus value over his projected arb award. A 50 FV hitter, alone, has an average value of $28 million. Why would a team offer up $61 million for a player worth $42.5 million, never mind the rest of the overpay you suggest?
You can squint and see how it makes sense for a rich team that wants to lock down the division title with another 5 wins, but on top of the overpay you want to add a 3 WAR player with 5 years left of team control, throwing in another 15 wins on top of the overpay for around 40% of market value given average arb projects, which sums to another $88 million you think the Padres ought to be handed in this deal. Then on top of that a ‘top 50’ prospect (worth on average another $38 million), for a total overpay of $146 million for a 5 win DH.
And five people upvoted your comment? On a baseball website??
Adrian Gonzalez German Marquez
More like he logged into 5 accounts to upvote his own comment.
Pads Fans
Soto is a 6 WAR player. End of story.
Betts trade is the nearest comparable. If you are not talking about that trade as the basis of a Soto trade, then there is nothing to discuss.
Bruin1012
Betts is better then then Soto at the time of the trade. He can actually play defense at an above average level Soto cannot. Betts had all the intangibles that Soto does not. Simply when Betts was traded he was the superior all around player and was worth more then Soto.
PadresWSChamps2024
Wouldn’t hold my breath about the prospect of Soto signing an extension but we’ll see.
websoulsurfer
All of those fans are going to say you are crazy. That the Padres won’t get that much. They are all wrong. The Padres don’t have to trade Soto, the FA market is barren after Ohtani and Bellinger, and the best comps out there are the Betts trade and it shows that since the Padres are not sending along nearly $50 million in dead weight that they will get a similar return to what the Red Sox got.
Namely an elite prospect that had shown he could play high level baseball in the majors at a premium position, another top 50 prospect, and a very good 3rd prospect.
That is where the discussion starts. Preller may decide he wants more than that and who could blame him Trading Soto will make the Padres lineup weaker. No one that would be available in trade could make that reality different. Preller would be punting on 2024 unless the ownership opened their wallets wide.
letsgopadres
The main problem I see with the Padres trying to trade Soto is they need pitching and pitching is so thin this year, who’s going to be able to make that trade? My gut tells me Preller is going to botch this trade and they are going to revert big time next year. Makes me sad that they at this point already. As happy as I was to see all the signings last year, I had a feeling this was going to happen (just not as fast as it did). Good luck Padres.
Simm
Padre don’t have to get pitching in this trade. They are around 170m in payroll right now and if they trade Soto it will go down to 140m, they will also trad Grisham and a chance they offload carpenter with Soto. They could be below 130m in payroll after trading Soto.
They can trade the prospects the get from Soto and or any of the ones they have for pitching. They also would have a min of 70m to spend before 200m which is the media default high number for the padres. Finding 3 pitchers with all those prospects and 70m + to spend they can do easily.
Longtimecoming
Simm there is some truth lining up my thoughts on what you said. I do believe using some $$’s for Yamamoto and Lee and a back end guy Lugo/Fedde/Martinez type makes sense though.
Luzardo and Burnes for some prospects acquired and/or a few of current 6-30 guys.
Burnes, Musgrove, Luzardo, Darvish and Yam with one of those back end guys as a 6 / long man would make a pretty strong rotation for years to come.
Smelling replaces Burnes in 25.
Simm
Yeah now you are thinking. There are a lot of moving parts to make that happen but they would have all the money and prospects to do whatever they wanted. That’s all with staying around the media’s 200m which I believe they will be above.
Brew88
If the Pads don’t trade Soto for pitching, they probably wont trade Soto
Cam
It doesn’t feel like that long ago Soto was acquired, and Padres fans were excited about him being a franchise cornerstone for years to come. Ouch.
el rey
Then we got watch him every day.
Butter Biscuits
For 1 yr of Soto, best prospect deal would come from the cubs or giants at this point. Being in the nl west should be pushed aside, the best return is what’s important. If not keep him they took too long to shop him.
Pads Fans
Giants don’t have what it would take to get Soto.
CP77
I’m not a yeankees fan but would love to see the type of numbers he would put in that stadium.
slider32
Soto is worth the prospects, he is a super star at 24, and won’t take a long term commitment. He would be dangerous in Yankee stadium.
Rsox
Unfortunately the Sox don’t have the prospects to get a deal done and even if they did they probably shouldn’t. The Sox need more than just Soto to get back to the playoffs
bhambrave
The Braves have a crappy farm and need pitching more than hitting. Other than that, he’s a perfect fit.
Seriously though, it would be awesome to see him in that lineup.
TennVol
What would a Jays trade for 1yr of Soto even look like? Manoah and his 4yrs of control?
Bless You Boys
Trade Vlad for him, and sign him. Keep Bichette.
ASapsFables
My “rinse and repeat”:
Being proactive in trading for a supreme player like Juan Soto could also be the tipping point in signing one of the top two Japanese FA’s, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Yankees and Mets are considered favorites for both Soto and Yamamoto. The Cubs have been strongly linked to all three. Just saying…
sdpadsfan11
I think that the Mariners would be a better trade partner, because they have the major league ready pitching that the Padres are looking for. Miller, Hancock, Gonzalez, and Dollard would be a nice package.
AlienBob
Forget about it. The M’s are not giving up that much pitching for a 1 year rental. You wouldn’t get 4 pitchers if he came with a 5 year contract.
RSmith
I have no idea why the Red Sox are listed fifth on the list, other than ‘big market’ teams must be added to list.
1) Red Sox need Starting Pitching.
2) Red Sox need to improve their Defense. They alreay have 3 DHs in the field (Casas, Devers, Yoshida). Why would they trade for a 4th.
3) Red Sox dont need a short-term fix, so as a one-year rental is useless.
4) Red Sox really, really need Starting Pitching,
DBH1969
Absolutely correc, RSmith!.
Sox need pitching, pitching, more pitching. They are also over staffed in the OF as it is and have no room at DH.
I would put the Sox in the, “No effing way” category, well behind the Royals and A’s
The writer is either delusional or looking for clicks.
Hired Gun 23
Same article and information but with a new date. Truth is, Preller is a crazy SOB and no one, not even him, truly knows the trade partner at this stage of the off-season…
Old York
You gonna trade from someone who’s sprint speed is below league average and weak defensive range?
Simm
Yes thanks for commenting
Old York
@Simm
Terrible…
el rey
Then we got to watch him.
Pads Fans
And were even more impressed
mookiesboy
horrible take on Mets situation
Digdugler
Jays will do no big splashola
Monty725
The Jays match up well. Manoah, Horowitz (they need 1b or DH), one of Espinal or Schneider and one of our prospects like Barger or Martinez. It’s a win now move for sure and Manoah is a high risk/reward. They can throw in Kim maybe and get big salary relief and useful players
Pads Fans
Manoah is not a viable prospect at this point. Probably take both Tiedeman and Martinez plus 2 more. Not getting Soto for your trash.
Stevil
I don’t have time to see if someone already commented on Seattle, but there is little doubt that they aren’t interested in giving up controllable talent for one year of Soto at a cool 30m or so.
That has never been Jerry’s MO. Seattle’s more likely to splurge on Ohtani than they are one year of Soto.
And to be clear, I don’t think Ohtani is impressed with Seattle’s FO, nor should he be.
kcroyalsman
I know most will disagree with me, but this would be a major stepping stone if Kansas City were to pick him up.
pleasantflavor
All these huge package proposals involving NYY, SEA, etc. seem like overpays. Soto is amazing and worth his salary. But the acquiring team will be on the hook for $33MM for one year, plus the prospect cost. Unless the Pads are paying down some of that cost, or adding another controllable player, I see them only getting one MLB ready pitcher, a couple prospects or a straight bulk prospect deal.
JackStrawb
@pleasantflavor No one’s giving up an MLB ready (starting) pitcher (with any real chance of succeeding in the majors) for a single year of Soto with a $33m arb award attached..
“The price tag should only be higher now that he’s a year and a half nearer to free agency.”
—-What Soto has shown over the past two years is that the upside of 2020-21 is gone and that his value is much more probably an average of 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023.
After 2020-21 the acquiring team had some hope Soto had not only found a new 7 WAR floor, but that he might even add some power and improve enough as a fielder to put up a few 8-9 WAR seasons before the inevitable decline.
Instead, he’s shown he’s much more likely to be a solid 5 WAR corner OFer who really ought to be a DH even at 24. That’s a valuable player, but it’s also a player comparable to Bryce Harper when Harper became a free agent, rather than any sort of superstar. Soto gives you 15 BB’s more a year and was more durable even then, while Harper’s a bit better or at least more flexible in the field.
If you could pay Soto $440m for his age 26-39 seasons, would you? In a few years he’s likely to be too slow to play the field, making him your DH for at least a decade. There’s a cost to that. There’s also a cost for a DH who gets a lot of values from walks, but is too slow to do much on the bases.
Probably better to think of this as a 10/$440m deal with $125m of that deferred to years 11, 12, 13, and 14 of the contract. If you want to carry $31.25m each of those last four years and probably get nothing or nothing in return, be my guest, but it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense unless you’re a huge market team that can manage to field a contender despite writing off 10-15% of payroll for those years.
pleasantflavor
I completely agree with you!
Your points were much better articulated than my generic sentiment.
But when I see people suggesting Volpe, Dominguez, King, Schmidt, etc. from the Yankees or Miller/Woo, Kelenic, Harry Ford from the M’s, I just think that’s way too much. I could see Emerson Hancock and another prospect moving, but considering the arb cost attached, that’s basically all I would offer.
iml12
Padres fans definitely overvaluing his worth. Boston sent a smorgasbord of crap for Betts (who is the better overall player). Verdugo all ready got a decent look. He’s was and is a light hitting outfielder. Jeter downs who was traded a few times was never considered anything but an mlb contributor and Colton Wong. They ate half of prices contract who was actually a productive bullpen arm for the dodgers and a useful piece. Price was definitely not worth 16 million a year but he had value.
rocky7
Yes, Padres fans are just as guilty as fans from every major league team when regarding trading away players from their team……
Really good point though…..nobody is going to unload the top half of their farm system and.or mix and match with major league talent for 1 year of Soto……at 25 he knows his leverage and while an acquiring team will get a great year of production, most likely will end up watching him walk away to free agency……
Simm
If you look at the guys the Sox got back now it looks bad. If you look at the ratings at the time it was far better then now.
Let’s say the padres get jones, with his 33% strikeout rate he may never even make it to the majors. You can see the big holes even in Dominguez and his 30% strikeout rate. Those are bad signs.
Prospects look great now but usually suck.
Padres traded a top prospect in Hasell to the Nats. He was like a top 50 guy a 1.5 years ago and now he isn’t even on a radar.
Soto is as about a sure of a thing as there is. These suspects are not.
Pads Fans
Then they are not getting Soto. End of story.
rocky7
Good, you and your Rock Star GM will watch him walk away at years end…..end of story!
Brew’88
better he walks after 2024 rather than stick around for years like Hos did… Pads will be fine after Soto leaves – will bring in another big bat in 2025. Meanwhile looking forward to Soto’s bat in contract year 2024. Tatis v Soto for MVP.
Deleted Userr
Yes. Because good players walking away in free agency never ever happens.
Deleted Userr
“No move would create more short-term payroll room than a Soto trade.”
Actually it wouldn’t create any payroll room because the Padres would have to spend even more than $33m to replace Soto’s production in FA.
“It’s hard to envision the Padres dealing him within the NL West.”
I’m against trading Soto but if they do trade him and a NL West team offers the best prospect package why not? It’s only for one year in which the Padres wouldn’t be contending anyway.
“San Diego isn’t rebuilding.”
If they trade Soto yeah they are.
DickDollars
Red Sox “acquiring Soto would put them right back in the hunt in the AL East.” The focus in the offseason has been on pitching but the Sox sorely need another power bat also.
JackStrawb
It’s odd to think adding a 5-win DH / corner OFer to a 78 win team puts that team “right back in the hunt—unless it’s the hunt for .500.
rocky7
Not addressing pitching more than offense would be a being issue for the Red Sox…….DD is dreaming!
Pads Fans
Just read the Athletic article and its interesting and more than a little sad that Rosenthal is still referencing an article by Acee that the writer retracted one day later.
Also still trying to claim that the Padres took a loan to meet payroll when it was not even approved until after payroll was already paid and Rosenthal’s pwn article referenced a Padres executive that said it was for an expense that they anticipated would happen later in the year. OH, like the land they are buying from the city.
The Athletic has lost million of subscribers since the NYT took over because they are writing garbage like that article.
Brew88
It’s 2023, when regurgitating talking points long after they’ve been proven erroneous is the norm.
Bobcastelliniscat
“The Reds have other priorities “ like lining their owner’s pocket.
ralphkramden55
Soto is good but nowhere near being a superstar. These huge contacts almost always never pay off (Scherzer is an exception). The fools running the big money teams never learn their lesson.
Simm
Did you just say Soto isn’t a superstar, is generational player ahead of superstar because that’s what Soto is.
ralphkramden55
Superstar is an overused term. IMO there are very few players who qualify as superstars or generational talents as you say. Yes, Soto can hit, no doubt about that. But in order to be a superstar a player must do everything exceptionally well and he doesn’t. His UZR is barely adequate and he has a lousy arm. If you want to spend up to a third of your payroll on one player go ahead. But it has been proven countless times that doing so is a foolish way to use your team’s resources. It’s ok to disagree, Simm. I just set my bar higher to use the term superstar. If Soto could compare to Mays, Clemente, Griffey, Trout and others like them, then ok to use the term superstar. But so far he doesn’t check the boxes.
websoulsurfer
6.0 WAR average. In his career you can count on your fingers the number of players that have been better overall. When you are top 10 in the game since you started playing and you just finished your age 24 season, you are a Superstar with a capital S.
Bruin1012
If Pads fans really believes that his ridiculous trade proposals are what it’s going to take to land Soto then he and a lot of other Pads fans are going to be devastated when they don’t get anywhere near that. If they paid the 33 million contract price then those proposals are realistic. They aren’t going to buy that contract down though so it’s a moot point.
Sharocko
Realistically…I think Pads keep him…they had the same record as the Yankees…and the Padres’ lineup is way better (with him and without him) then what the Yankees have.
Their lineup severely underachieved and law of averages say there’s no way they lose as many 1 run games again. Melvin not rotating the lineup (until the last couple months) when they were slumping bad in early part of season didn’t help their record either.
Another thing to keep in mind is…there’s absolutely no way the Padres brass would’ve waited until Soto’s last year to all of the sudden create a game plan on how he fits with them. They knew exactly how he’d adjust their payroll when they traded for him.
Some ppl seemingly want so badly for Padres to have to firesale some of their top talent…but the two new guys taking over for Seidler have yet to say that. They’ve in fact stated they will continue Seidler’s plan…and keep the padres very competitive. They may not be top 3 spender of last year…but they’re going to let Preller make moves to continue to compete with big boys of baseball.
That plan has been in effect since Seidler took over and knowing he was on borrowed time..he planned accordingly for after he passed on as well.
If they were like the A’s…you’d have trade Juan Soto…but since Padres very much want another shot to compete in 24…if they don’t get the right deal…it’s just better to keep him…but guess we’ll have to see how it plays out.
rocky7
You Padres really make us all laugh……especially regarding the comparison between the Pads, and the Yankees………
The Padres lineup underachieved while the Yankees didn’t….all the Yankees had to do was get along without their best hitter and previous year MVP Judge for over 60 games and then have to watch him work himself back into a shadow of the hitter he was prior to the injury….all while in a race for the playoffs..
Rizzo, one of the hottest hitters in the league when he was injured by your own player and while playing for over 2 months with concussion finally packed it in for the season after failing to hit water if he fell out of a boat.
Stanton, not every hitting his weight….Donaldson having his worst season, no left fielder, Bader in and out of the lineup……rookie shortstop…..best hitter at a robust .279……the Yankees lineup has as much chance of bouncing back to the backs of their baseball cards as Padres players…….it will be interesting to see whether new management pulls in the financial reigns and forces Preller to make some tough decisions…….
Brew88
rocky your defense of the Yanks lineup is strong, and I think both teams will play up the backs of their baseball cards in 24. But Yanks comparisons aside, I completely agree with every other point Sharocko makes. Very realistic.
RobM
As noted, reports are the Yankees and Padres are already exchanging player names. We know where he’s going.
Simm
Literally the second step outside of be we are interested.
Long long ways to go to agree on said players.
Brew’88
1.a Yanks showing interest (every team is interested). 1b.Yanks are most desperate to land a Soto. 2. Yanks suggested a few players to see if Pads interested. 3. Preller said meh probably. 4. Rosenthal and others in NY media went wholesale bananas at the thought of it all. 5. Mlbtr dutifully followed through on the usual Soto euphoria talking points, and 6. here we are.
Soto and Ohtani will continue to garner attention, ever time there’s a bleep. Let’s all try to keep it in our pants as best we can.
SupremeZeus
Holy cow
Brew’88
well said
ih8tepaperstraws
The Cardinals rotation looks to be set and if so they are going to consistently score 6+ runs a game to win a game. They don’t have the offense to support that. They only have 3 players that project to drive in more than 75 RBI over a full 162 (Gorman, Arenado, and Contreras). I exclude Goldschmidt because as I said many time, history has shown 36 is when first basemen stop being productive, even the best of the best. Soto would be a game changer.
If the Cardinals were to trade frame a deal of Walker for Soto, the Cardinals would be fully committed to resigning Soto no matter the cost. They would have to because even with Soto they are not a contender in ‘24, but the move is for ‘25 when they can better bulk up the starting rotation. When you there for assume Soto is on the team the next decade, the trade is a no brainer for the Cardinals. They would have to go above the $440mm offer he o to resign him even though he is likely to end up with less in free agency.
OregonCoastKelly
of your most likely teams, who has the prospects the Padres would most want?
Simm
Probably the mariners. Just because of the pitching they have. I don’t think the mariners are going to do it.
I think the most desperate team is the Yankees. I believe they will give up a ton. Their fans already think they have him on their team. When they miss out on Yamamoto they will get desperate. Yeah they could sign bellinger but he is asking for the world. With a lot of risk…
Just remember all those guys the dodger gave up for Betts and the dodgers would make that trade again 100% of the time. Prospects even top 100 guys fail a lot of the time.
Sneaky teams on Soto is have rangers. I think the giants will be all over him when they miss out on Ohtani and Yamamoto.
Red Sox and Mets aren’t impossible to see.
HBRC1987
Forget prospects, why not the Giants trade Webb for Soto straight up, then ink Soto to a 10 year deal?
Deleted Userr
1. Cuz it will take more than 10 years to sign Soto.
2. Cuz they can ink Soto to a deal without trading Webb.
HBRC1987
It sounds like the Padres will only trade him if they can get a legit starting pitcher in return. No team is going to give them what they want if its just a rental, so it will likely be a deal where he gets traded and signs a pre arranged extension right after. 10 years 12 years whatever. A 10+ year deal. Which would mean whoever trades for him will sign him. So it may be the Giants only chance to get Soto, by trading Webb.
Deleted Userr
@davey gee But why would Soto agree to that when he’s only one year out from free agency, is going to get $500m and is represented by Scott Boras?
HBRC1987
Why would he agree? Why not? If he gets the same contract why would it matter if he signs it this offseason? I just don’t see anyone trading for him for just a one year rental if the Padres asking price is a top tier pitcher or like 5 top prospects.
Deleted Userr
“Why would he agree? Why not?”
Because he is a 25 y/o future HOF Boras client and he and Boras are salivating at the prospect of leading teams into a bidding war next winter. He’ll get to choose his team and his salary.
“I just don’t see anyone trading for him for just a one year rental if the Padres asking price is a top tier pitcher or like 5 top prospects.”
Me neither and that’s why I honestly see him staying put. Padres can reevaluate at the July trade deadline.
Brew88
And since it’s likely they won’t be out of contention at TD, unlikely Soto gets traded at all. If there is a rational reason for doing so, we have yet to hear it from a source linked to the Pads org.
Simm
Padres would most likely make that trade.
People don’t think they will trade Soto on the division but I don’t think that matters all that much. The dodgers are most likely going to win the division anyways.
Padres will trade him for the best package and I like Harrison from the giants.
Francis desperate to save his job. Cashman sounds desperate to save his job and preller is desperate to save his job. Something could be up between these three.
Deleted Userr
I’d rather keep him. But if they must trade him, I would absolutely trade him to the Dodgers or Giants if they make the best offer. Padres are sunk for 2024 without Soto anyway and I do not subscribe to the point of view that trading for him makes him more likely to sign with you.
JaysnCards
1 year of Soto on the Jays isn’t very appealing and signing him long term for the salary he will command would be foolish.
The Yankees will probably be the ones to give him the huge bucks only to regret it after a couple seasons like they are with Stanton
AlienBob
I cannot see Jerry Dipoto of the M’s trading anything for a 1 year rental of Soto. Soto will leave in a year. The M’s have a bunch of young position players coming up through their system. They may be two years away but Jerry will wait. Then he will have a boatload of controllable pitchers and position players. In the meantime, he will use cheap free agents that can be disposed of when necessary to fill in the MLB roster. .Protecting the kids and the payroll is his MO. Signing a long-term deal for Soto or Ohtani is not in the cards.
HBRC1987
The only chance Soto gets traded as a rental is if the player the Padres receive (they want a pitcher) would also be a one year rental but that player would have to be equal to Soto as far as star caliber. That leaves only 4 guys: Scherzer, Cole, Sale and Wheeler. The only one I could see as a possible fit is Sale for Soto, as the three other teams aren’t in desperate need of hitting and are already playoff caliber teams. The Red Sox would make sense as they could try to sell Soto on signing with them long term, and the Padres would get an elite pitcher in Sale.
websoulsurfer
I have not read the entire thread, but I am quite sure many have brought up the fallacy that the Padres MUST cut payroll. That they are supposedly in some kind of financial trouble. After all, Rosenthal repeated that claim in the article that was linked to.
Here is what is really going on. I will continue to post this information as long as I keep seeing references to Acee’s now retracted article and Rosenthal’s debunked article.
The loan taken out by the Padres was not approved by MLB until days after the last payroll of the season was paid out on September 15th. The executive quoted in the Rosenthal article said that it was planned for a long time and was for an expense that was anticipated for later in the year. While we don’t know exactly what it was for, what we know for certain is that it was NOT for payroll.
MLB only approved $50 million of the $100 million approved by their lender, Ascendant Capital. The Padres did not violate debt service ratio or MLB would not have allowed them to take out the loan at all.
You know what it quite possibly WAS for? To complete the purchase of the land at Tailgate Park that they must close on with the city of San Diego for in December. The same land where they are going to be building a $1.5 billion development. cisterra.com/tailgatepark
That makes MUCH more sense, but it’s not near as sensational as claiming the Padres are borrowing money to pay payroll. You wouldn’t click on the link to read the article talking about that so the rapidly failing Athletic didn’t publish what is most likely the real story.
The Padres are now revenue sharing payers. MLB has confirmed that. Like the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox and other big market teams, they are now paying into the revenue sharing system instead of receiving money and draft picks from it. They are a top 14 revenue team. That means revenue of more than $440 million.
The Padres had record revenue in 2023. They made more money than in any season in their history.
Prior to the season the Padres CEO Erik Greupner said that the team would NOT lose money in 2023. He said that they could not maintain the level of payroll GROWTH that they had the last few years, but that they would not lose money in 2023. Pretty sure HE knows their financial situation.
The Padres had record attendance since opening Petco and were 2nd in MLB. They had the highest percentage of seats sold in MLB.
Padres 2024 season tickets are sold out. Even after increasing season ticket costs by 10-25% depending on the area, they are all sold. You can get on a waitlist if you want, but so many season ticket holders re-upped and added seats that it’s not likely you will get in even in 2025. mlb.com/padres/tickets/season-tickets/waitlist
The Padres are having a single game ticket sale that started on the 21st and runs through Dec 4th and there are very few tickets of any kind left, so hurry if you want to see a Padres game in person. mlb.com/padres/tickets/specials/holiday-ticket-off…
Maury Brown of the Business of Baseball has said it’s likely that the Padres will earn more money from TV in 2024 than the $52 million DSG/Ballys would have paid them. They knew the DSG/Ballys bankruptcy was coming and were ready.
MLB paid them 80% of the one payment that DSG/Ballys defaulted on. DSG/Bally’s had already paid them the 1st two of 6 total payments due for the baseball season.
The Padres had contracts signed with all the carriers that DSG had them carried on when it was Bally’s SD by the very next day. The next day. All of them. Cox, Spectrum, AT&T, DIRECTV, and FUBO. They added Spectrum Hawaii.
They also became the first team to be able to sell MLB.tv single team packages that were not blocked out locally. By the end of the season, they had sold 285k of those packages and were making more than $4 million per month JUST from those packages. With more time to sell them, that number will go up. That alone will pay the Padres half of what DSG/Bally’s would have been paying them. Add in all the TV contracts they signed directly with the carriers and they are doing just fine on TV money.
Not ONE person on the Padres has even intimated that they are cutting payroll. In fact, Seidler said a few months ago that they were staying the course and payroll would stay about the same as in 2023. Since his death, to a person, including the new interim point man Eric Kutsenda, the GM, and the CEO have all said they are continuing what Seidler set in motion. They have said that as recently as Shildt’s introductory press conference. mlb.com/padres/video/live-padres-press-conference-…
Melvin was allowed to leave because the Padres were rudderless in 2023 and missed the playoffs. Melvin’s self-proclaimed hands-off approach to managing the team did not work. His lack of ability to make effective in-game management decisions led to a MLB 2023 worst and franchise worst record in 1-run and extra-inning games. The situation was so bad that on Sept 1st a group of 7 players including all the team leaders came to Preller to complain about Melvin’s managing of the team.
Soto is not being shopped around. Preller said what any GM would say. He would listen if someone called, but that he did not see any way that Soto would not be a Padre in 2024. He also said that extending him was the biggest priority this offseason.
Padres ownership is not in flux. The majority share of the Padres partnership is held in the trust established by Peter Seidler prior to his death and controlled by Sheel Seidler, his wife. Peter’s longtime friend and business partner Eric Kutsenda is acting as the team’s interim control person for interactions with MLB. The team will stay in the Seidler family and Peter set aside a portion of his trust to make sure that the Padres could continue to field a championship level team for years to come.
Tom Seidler, Peter’s brother and business partner has said that the team will continue to operate as it did under Peter and that they will work to carry out his legacy and bring a WS Championship to San Diego
You can choose to continue to be a hater or you can face the facts that the media is not interested in feeding you the facts, only in feeding you what keeps you clicking on their websites. Your choice.
foppert1
Padre fans are no more honest with facts than the media are.
Brew’88
@ foppert. I’m a Giants fan and just double-triple checked up on everything websoulsurfer just wrote, and it’s all factual. Truly amazing what an altered reality has been spun for click bait by sports media of late about the Pads. It’s happening to my Giants too, just not as extreme. I dont fault Padre fans for going out of their way to expose the irresponsible rumors and non-truths.
foppert1
I don’t believe you.
Do me a favour and post me a link to the Acee “retraction” that the baseball media is choosing to ignore.
Brew’88
Feel free to believe who you wish to believe, I have no dog in this fight. But I do live in SD area, and my wife and kids are avid Padre fans and I follow the Pads and like them..
Acee has become total slime and the local sports journalists and fans are all over him for his endless string of negative bs reporting. His retractions are rare, and in the case of the budget issue, were never in writing, he doesn’t work that way, ever.
Regarding his reporting about the Pads needing to cut payroll by 50M he retracted that his sources were not anyone in the Pads org – those retractions were many and frequent on sports talk shows where got grilled to defend himself initially but caved quite quickly when asked for evidence. The Big Rich & Fletch Show, The Mightier 1090, 97.3TheFan, Jim&Jon, etc…He’s been given some leave by SD UT with reporting on the Pads because the bs has caught up to him, his integrity in SD is rock bottom. This is what happens when a new agency tells their reporters to submit falsehoods for click bait, rather than evidence-based reporting.
foppert1
Ok. So no one reported the many and frequent retractions of one of the off seasons biggest stories ? I find that so hard to believe. Every single baseball journalist in the world, is continuing to run with iit despite the fact he “retracted” it ? So not logical. How about Kenny and Dennis Lin ? You think they don’t have sources at the Padres ? You don’t think they would check the veracity of the claims before going all in on the Athletic ?
Here’s my thought. Acee didn’t make a retraction at all. That’s Padre fans choosing an inaccurate term because it suits there emotionally based narrative. Just like the CEO’s supposed public commitment to the same payroll. The only place that happened was inside the head of hopeful Padre fans.
Brew’88
You can believe Acee, or believe Padre ownership. take your pick.
Like I said, Acee didn’t write a public retraction that I know of. Just backpedaled that his sources were from within Padres org. In one radio interview, Acee said “well, why did they take out a 50M loan then?” connecting it somehow to his made up rumor about the 50M payroll cut. He prompts as fact his suspicions. After the report by Acee that the Padres were cutting budget, many reporters asked the Padres leadership group if they were in fact doing that. You can find their answers in dozens of public statements/interviews where they state they have no intention of reducing their financial commitments. They’re professional (unlike Acee) in not getting into a tat with Acee about exact budget for 2024 and the future because they don’t need defend anything to a two bit reporter who’s made it a career of pushing fake news.. It’s their business and they run it accordingly. So sure, believe the talking points that Lin and Heyman et al keep regurgitating – they all cite Acee’s orginal article, and they never quote padre brass. Why? Welcome to the world of sensationalized bs.