As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Will Yamamoto get $300MM?
The top free agent remaining at this point in the offseason is right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The 25-year-old NPB ace has previously been reported as having seven “finalists” for his services: the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies, and Blue Jays. Reporting has since indicated that Philadelphia and Toronto are likely on the periphery of the sweepstakes, while last night rumors surfaced that the Dodgers were considering making an offer to Yamamoto in the $250-300MM range.
An offer even on the smaller end of that range would make Yamamoto’s contract the second-largest in MLB history for a starting pitcher (ignoring two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani) behind only Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, edging out Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg’s $245MM guarantee from the 2019-20 offseason. The bidding process for Yamamoto’s services is expected to continue throughout the week, leaving the door open for other finalists’ offers to reach or even surpass the reported range L.A. is considering.
2. Is a Matsui deal on the horizon?
Yamamoto isn’t the only NPB pitcher getting buzz of late. As of yesterday, the Padres and left-handed reliever Yuki Matsui were reportedly close on a multi-year deal. Matsui, 28, has posted sub-2.00 ERAs out of the bullpen in Japan in each of the past three seasons, with a combined 1.42 ERA and a 36.4% strikeout rate across 152 innings during that time. That show of dominance overseas earned Matsui the No. 43 spot on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list. The Cardinals, Red Sox and Cubs are among the teams that have been connected to Matsui this offseason outside of San Diego, though with a deal seemingly on the verge of coming together, those teams may be forced to look elsewhere for bullpen help going forward.
3. Pirates facing roster crunch:
The Pirates have begun making moves to add to the club in recent days as they look to improve upon a 76-86 season during which the club showed flashes of success but ultimately finished fourth in the NL Central. Two recent moves made to improve the club’s standing were the addition of left-hander Martin Perez to the rotation and the club’s reported reunion with veteran DH Andrew McCutchen, who will don on a Pirates uniform for an 11th season in his 16-year MLB career. Before either deal can become official, however, the Pirates must clear space on their 40-man roster, which is currently full even without Perez and McCutchen having officially signed. Pittsburgh could look to make a minor trade or two in the coming days to clear space on the roster for their recent signings, or simply designate two players on the 40-man roster for assignment to make room.
Ah what wild speculation without credible sources will today bring? Get Morosi on the blower.
Sounds like something Willie Shakespeare might have written in ye olde days.
Sounds like the kind of stuff you’d read about at a site with “rumors” in its name.
Of course Yamamoto is getting over $300 million dollars. Let the games begin!
Captain, just like the Ohtani numbers were later reduced to present value, it’s unclear if the money mentioned for YY includes the posting fees.
No Dewey, it does not include the posting fee, that will be seperate. Definitely expect a contract of over $300 million for Yamamoto, with a opt out clause or two in his deal, and he will most likely go to the highest bidder. This kid Roki Sasaki is as talented if not better then Yamamoto. That all remains to be seen, hope all is well.
Here is the crazy thing. NPB salaries are much lower than MLB salaries, even for their superstars. Last year, the total team salary for Orix was approximately $38M. Whoever signs Yamamoto, they will be paying Orix close to $40M in posting fees, which will cover the entire Orix team payroll for 2024. No wonder why Orix posted him!
My guess is 12/360
I think that’s definitely a excellent guess.
With the checks signed, “Steve Cohen”.
99,
How will we ever know if he went to the highest bidder?
Sasaki is superior and younger. Teams can just wait and try to sing him as an international free agent if he does have an opt-out, as reported.
Yeah Rokie is the real deal you are right about that, if he won’t be a free agent this year, he probably will be granted free agency next season. He is trying to use that opt out clause he has now. We’ll see.
*Roki
Looking forward to the “Roki of the Year” headlines.
I do wonder how much buyer’s remorse there might be when some of the Asian free agents this offseason don’t live up to their lofty numbers once they face competition in the MLB. It feels like everyone is lining up for the next Ohtani, and some clubs are going to inevitably end up with gilded lillies instead.
It’s been a mixed bag going back to Dice K and “Fat Toad” but the buyer’s remorse argument certainly can also apply to many U.S. players as well.
Agreed that plenty of teams will sign US players to contracts they’ll later regret. Someone’s inevitably going to pay Bellinger way more than they should. But Bellinger’s track record is in the MLB, where he was once excellent. Yamamoto, who has not pitched in the MLB, at $300m and 10+ years is a lot of risk.
Hideo Nomo pre-dates Dice-K and I’d say he was pretty good.
Asian got nothing to do with it. You could have an American who had the level of success he had become a FA at 25 & he would get paid too.
Asian ball players get a bit more because they bring an international element of money their team gets to make. Fans of theirs in Japan, Korea etc will buy their MLB jerseys. Maybe pay to see the games follow the games close and possibly eventually become fans of the MLB teams even when the player is long gone. Possibly even pass the love of that team to their kids.
It’s the growth of the game the teams invest in as much as the player they are getting.
An American pitcher, couldn’t possibly have the level of success as a Japenese pitcher can have at that age. The Nippon League is above aaa level, and the closest thing to mlb, that there is.
Yet Bauer, who costs a fraction and could impact a pitching squad significantly for at least the next two seasons, gets little to no mention. He had similar numbers in The Show recently and is still persona non grata. Reeks of collusion league wide. Knowing what we now know, it’s unacceptable.
If Bauer doesn’t get signed to an mlb contract by the end of spring training, he will have an ” airtight” case against MLB, for hundreds of millions of dollars. Manfred knows this, so I would expect Bauer to be signed before the 2024 season begins.
Bauer is like some of the Instagram models I’ve followed. The performance is there, looks great, makes all the right moves – but as soon as he opens his mouth all those things go right out the window. I don’t think teams are so much concerned about his history as much as what they’re afraid he might do or say next.
Bbh, Agreed, airtight. I personally didn’t care for his on-field antics, but those guys doing childish stuff on-field are all lauded by “influencers” constantly. Yet the way Bauer’s being overtly targeted and made an example of, facts be darned, is a sad state of affairs but par for our dimly lit course as of late. I’d welcome him joining my favorite team. If he wasn’t a good baseball player, I wouldn’t. I wish that’s what mattered, not hyperbole and false narratives. I believe Manfred is so bullheaded and has such delusions of grandeur, he’ll continue to blackball him.
Can you show receipts? That’s the narrative, sure. Outside if him showing unequivocal proof this was a shakedown, he’s practically talked about exclusively baseball on all social feeds. His teammates largely speak highly of him. I’m not convinced he’s some team cancer. I suppose because he was accused of something, he can’t prove his innocence and have an opinion moving forward? Nah, I’m not buying that, collusion is most likely.
Read his bio sometime. He and his father life time jerks to put it mildly
Spot on. The only way I see him getting a contract is if he agrees to shut down/suspend his channel and social media presence. At the moment, the man has a reputation for being a nightmare employee. No one wants that headache.
I would say Ohtani lived up to expectations.
Right, but my point is that he was extremely atypical.
How about Ichiro?
Ichiro was great. But remember guys like Byung-ho Park, who was a back to back KBO MVP with 50+ HRs before he came to MLB and fizzled after one season with the Twins?
Or Tanaka on the Yanks, who was super hyped when he came over at age 25. He had one great season and then backslid to mediocrity before fading out of MLB at age 31.
Yeah probably all because he didn’t have the TJS.
Every free agent class, regardless of where they played before signing, has a number of players that lead to buyer’s remorse. It’s not just NPB players.
It’s a conspiracy to ruin baseball and America.
I find it hilarious that, if reports of Yamamoto not entertaining any serious offers just yet are true, then he is just flying around on private jets that he didn’t pay for drinking bahama mamas letting teams pitch to him why he should come there. Not bad for a Christmas Vacation
Gotta separate the wheat from the chaff.
Almost cut my hair?
happened just the other day
It was getting kinda long.
could’ve said it was in my way
Yeah, but he’s also holding up the pitching market by doing so. A little annoying in my opinion
Meh. Flying all around the country for one-day visits would not be my idea of a Christmas Vacation.
Of course with the Cardinals needing bullpen help they will let San Diego step up and take Matsui! I love the Cardinals with a passion but damn they are cheap! Go get a Hader! Go get a matsui! Smh no we will settle on has beens or never will be’s lol. It was a good 20 years but I guess the Cards are like the Reds, Pirates and other teams that are happy just being mediocre! The team has ball park village so. No need to spend!!
They probably need to just trade Goldschmidt and Arenado for a kings ransom and load up in two years.
Probably too late. Arenado is not ancient, but he is almost 33, had a 2.4 bWAR, and is owed $109M/4. Goldie is still good, but still 36.
You’re delusional if you think a couple of guys who are well onto the downslope of their careers are bringing in a King’s Ransom.
Cheap ? They carry a $200 mil payroll. Rather impressive for a Midwest team imo
200 million dollar payroll and get small market poverty compensation picks. There really isn’t a team with a bigger advantage in the mlb.
Pirates still need a 2B & another SP
Polanco ????
Manaea ????
According to Jason Mackey of the Post Gazette, Cherington is in contact with another club to trade 2-3 of their younger players for a pitcher who still has a few years of control
And they already have a second baseman
Gonzalez and Bae
I’m hoping they swing a deal for one of the Marlins young SP’s for a couple of bats on the 40-man and a prospect or two.
Does everyone forget about Peguero existing?
Y’all can take Cronenworth off the Padres hands. Probably wouldn’t cost much either.
they got middle infielders, pretty much the only positions they have a surplus of. Of course they’re unproven prospects but you know… Gonzales, Peguero and Triolo for example.
Pirates need an actual first basemen and pitchers that are not just potential trade bait. The pirates pipeline is pretty weak at first. Starters have some upside but mostly prospects. The future of the team depends on these pitching prospects.
My guess is they are pretty much done in the free agent market. They are not going to go after Bauer, Belt, Bellinger, not matter how much a daydream of them doing so.
How bout someone like bubba chandler for Jonathan india ?
Pirates are absolutely loaded with pitching prospects. Holy smokes
@Big
Definitely not. As mentioned the pirates have a surplus of middle infield prospects. India doesn’t have the value for the team to draw someone like Bubba.
If it where a different team that had a need then that proposal is not unreasonable. An about average second baseman for a B/B+ prospect fair.
The pirates front office might see something I don’t in India though
Bubba Chandler has a higher ceiling than Paul Skenes. He ain’t getting traded for a mediocre MI. Maybe as part of a package for someone like one of the top young SP’s with 3+ years of control.
@Scott
Saying Bubba has a higher ceiling is a pretty big leap, he is stinking it up in the minors. Yeah minors stats are not an end all for judging prospects but it is pretty bad.
Skenes has the ceiling of an Ace. Bubba has a ceiling of a top of the rotation guy which is still really good but still has quite a bit of work to do to get there. While the general consensus is that Paul is pretty much ready out of the box and just needs a bit of time to get used to being a pro.
@joew – First, Skenes is a better prospect for a couple reasons, he is older/more accomplished and has far better command/control than Chandler. If and when Chandler harnesses his pitches as well as Skenes he most likely be a better pitcher due primarily to the shape of his fastball. Skenes fastball is pretty flat.
Second, Chandler started to unlock his potential in the 2nd half of this past season. He dominated hitters even though he pitched in one of the most friendly hitters park/league for all but one start. His final start in AA was outstanding, too. Considering this was his 1st year solely focusing on pitching, he had a successful campaign.
Third, several of the experts I trust regarding Pirates prospects also claim Chandler has a higher ceiling than Skenes. I think everyone will agree Chandler has a lower floor.
Hope this helps clarify my point.
Merry Christmas.
@scott
really seems like you confused it more than clarified it 🙂
What it sounds like you are saying to me is… If Paul and Bubba were the same player Bubba would have a higher ceiling.
Fair point on Bubba doing better after giving up the bat. Keeping in mind Paul was/is a two way player as well. Pretty sure he only pitched in his last year of college. not because he couldn’t hit but because he is such a good pitcher. I mean geez a 1.000+ over three seasons and i think a good portion of them at catcher… maybe they should let him take some swings in the spring just to taste the water. hmm.. Knowing our luck he would get ohtani’d and not be able to pitch again for a year or two.
The Dodgers aren’t even in the game with $250 mil offer while he’s being wined and dined in New York. It’s definitely one of the NY teams.
1. He’s getting $500M and they’re going to get him some batting practice so he can DH on the side. He’ll be the super Ohtani with a 0.10 ERA with 600 Ks per year, and hitting 80 HRs per year. Opt-out after a few years and get that $1 Billion contract.
I thought the 600 k’s would be from his batting!
Would be amazing if it’s a Yamamoto body double who has been meeting with clubs
With his unique Asian features – I doubt they can find a match
Please tell me you didn’t think that comment through before posting?
Just sign and get it over with! This guy is holding up the market. Seems like it is down to two or three suitors.
How does Stephen A still have a job? Does anyone actually find him interesting or knowledgeable?
Because his ratings are high and everybody clicks on his comments on ESPN.com. They are an entertainment network and apparently he entertains / draws viewers.. news networks no longer exist.
Some guy named Christopher Russo does.
Anyone know what’s up with the new trade rumors? Some posts I can reply on and some I can’t. It’s not that I’m blocked by the user because I see the same user for both. For reference look below when captain99 replied twice to degrom. The first has a reply button but not the 2nd one. Strange
What’s the holdup now with Yamamoto ? He met with the teams that want him, even twice with the Mets & Yanks, and other free agents are waiting on him to sign, LETS GO.
@jvent
No good offers. MLB teams are too cheap to pay for the best pitcher in the history of the history of history!
Giants need to offer 10/350 as a starting bid. Fan base isn’t going to be happy with 1 contact hitter as our only acquisition.
Anyone else find it kind of annoying how Yamamoto is holding up the market right now with his stretched out process? There are a lot of top tier free agents who probably haven’t even had preliminary discussions because of the teams in on Yamamoto. Imagine being Blake Snell, you just won your 2nd Cy Young, with a 2.25 ERA with 234 Ks, and all the teams that could sign you are instead interested in a 25 year old from Japan who has never thrown an MLB pitch.
Imagine being a multimillionaire and having to wait to see how much more inflated your “worth” will be…
Because Yamamoto has a signing window and Snell doesn’t…. I’m guessing he understands this even if you don’t
the lure of the exotic
GM’s care more about metrics than awards. Obviously they’re enamoured with his stuff and pitch repertoire, or he wouldn’t be viewed as better than Snell.
Boras has Snell, Montgomery, Bellinger and Chapman. He will enjoy if Yamamoto drags it out to early Jan since he’ll be slow playing all the clubs against one another anyhow after that to panic pay each client crazy $/years to appease a fanbase.
It’s also why Burnes/Cease/Bieber are going to have sky high asks by clubs now in trade (first 2 also Boras if one asks about extension deal prices). Even Clubs who prefer spending a lot on decent FA to losing prospects could leave themselves little time to improve much via trade.
Yamamoto is expected to be significantly better, more reliable, and projectable than Blake Snell by most analysts and a lot of fans.
I expect Yamamoto to perform like Blake Snell’s ceiling, but with significantly more durability.
Honestly, Yamamoto’s results are incredibly close to the kinds of numbers Yu Darvish was putting up in Japan. We’re hearing final numbers, but I wonder what the years of the contracts look like?
After Ohtani’s contract, I have to wonder if marketers are looking at the endorsement opportunities for having Yamamoto on the same team or as a rival in San Francisco or if it’s better for endorsement deals to be across the country in New York.
In any case, I’d consider any numbers greater than 7/210 + the posting fee to be an overpay for Yamamoto. I suppose free agency is mostly going to result in overpays, but there’s always a risk Yamamoto’s stuff doesn’t work as well as Darvish’s stuff did.