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Hoyer: Cubs Prioritizing “2025 And Beyond” At Deadline

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This morning, The Athletic reported that the Cubs did not anticipate buying at the deadline. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer essentially confirmed as much in a chat with reporters just before tonight’s matchup with the Brewers.

Hoyer said the front office will approach the deadline with an eye toward to the future. “Where we are right now, I would have to say that moves only for 2024 – unless things change over the next week – we probably won’t do a lot of moves that only help us for this year,” Chicago’s baseball ops leader said (link via Jesse Rogers of ESPN). “If moves help us for 2025 and beyond I think we’re exceptionally well positioned.”

While Hoyer left open the slight caveat that the situation could change this week, there’s not much ambiguity in how he expects to handle the deadline. He spoke frankly about the team’s “poor position” with regards to this season. “We simply dug a hole with underperformance for two months. That doesn’t affect how I view the organization or how I view things going forward but it certainly affects 2024,” Hoyer said.

It’s clear the Cubs aren’t going to pursue any impending free agents. Hoyer didn’t term Chicago’s approach as buying or selling. That leaves open the possibility of trying to acquire MLB talent that is under team control beyond this season. While that’s not unprecedented (the Reds’ acquisition of Trevor Bauer and the Mets’ deal for Marcus Stroman in 2019 are examples of teams acquiring controllable players at the deadline despite being out of contention), it’s not common. The Cubs would need to outbid teams that are motivated to land those players for both a potential playoff push this summer and future seasons.

Chicago’s farm system is regarded as one of the strongest in the league. That gives Hoyer and his staff the ammunition to make a deal for a controllable player of note, but the likelier outcome is that the Cubs will just move a few short-term veterans. Hoyer shot down any suggestion of a complete teardown, saying it’s “not going to be an option so (there’s) no point in going through the hypothetical.” That makes it unlikely they’d deal core pieces who are under contract or team control beyond this season (e.g. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Ian Happ, Michael Busch).

Prioritizing 2025 would ordinarily put a team’s rentals on the table, but the Cubs don’t have much to offer in that regard. Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly (whose deal contains a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option) and recent minor league signee Jorge López are the only true rentals. Hendricks is playing on a $16.5MM salary and has an earned run average pushing 7.00. While he has pitched better lately after a dismal start to the season, there’d be minimal interest. The Cubs could try to pay down almost all of the contract to find a trade partner. Hendricks also has full no-trade rights after reaching 10 years of MLB service (at least the last five of which have been with his current team) earlier this season.

Smyly has a 2.92 ERA across 37 innings in a long relief capacity. That solid run prevention isn’t supported by mediocre strikeout and walk rates (21% and 10.2%, respectively). Between his $8.5MM salary and the aforementioned option buyout, there’s likely to be limited interest in the veteran left-hander.

Cody Bellinger has the ability to opt out of the final two years and $50MM on his contract. He has had a fine but unexceptional season, hitting .269/.331/.410 across 344 plate appearances. That’d be a difficult contract to move even if Bellinger were healthy, and he went on the injured list a couple weeks ago with a broken finger.

If the Cubs wanted to more or less run things back in 2025, they’d be in for a very quiet deadline. Yet even if they’re not likely to move long-term core pieces, Chicago could entertain offers on role players who are controllable beyond this season. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the Yankees and Red Sox were looking at starter Jameson Taillon, who’ll make $18MM annually between 2025-26. Rogers reports that the Cubs have also gotten interest in third baseman/DH Christopher Morel and relievers Héctor Neris, Mark Leiter Jr. and Tyson Miller.

Morel, 25, is under team control through 2028. He’ll be a borderline candidate for the Super Two cutoff for early arbitration next offseason. The Cubs are certainly under no financial pressure to move him, but it’s possible they’re prepared to move on if another team views Morel as a regular. Morel is a good athlete with big power upside who has never found a defensive home. Chicago has unsuccessfully tried him in second base and throughout the outfield in previous seasons. They’ve given him 562 innings at third base this year, hoping his top-of-the-scale arm strength would work at the position. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have each given him very poor grades for his stint at the hot corner.

This also hasn’t been a great season for Morel at the plate. While he has 18 homers, he’s hitting .202 with a .304 on-base mark. It’s a step down from the .241/.311/.471 career slash line that Morel carried into the season. While that’s clearly not ideal, it belies some intriguing developments from a process perspective. Morel has upped his walk rate by a couple points while dramatically slicing his strikeouts. After fanning in over 30% of his plate appearances for his first two seasons, he’s striking out 23.8% of the time this year. An unsustainably low .221 average on balls in play has kept that from materializing into better results.

Even if the Cubs expect Morel’s offensive performance to normalize with an uptick in his average on balls in play, the lack of a defensive fit makes him a difficult player to value. The Cubs could hope to turn third base over to last year’s first-round pick Matt Shaw as soon as next season. They don’t have much in the way of short-term alternatives. If the Cubs traded Morel, they’d probably rely on Miles Mastrobuoni and Patrick Wisdom to cover the position for the rest of the season.

The Cubs should be open to offers on anyone in their bullpen. Neris has handled the ninth inning since Adbert Alzolay went down with a forearm strain. The offseason signee has been shaky, walking 16.1% of opponents and blowing four saves in 17 attempts. Neris had a 1.71 ERA for the Astros last season, but that’s up two runs this year thanks to his control woes. The 35-year-old righty is playing on a $9MM salary and has a matching option for next year. That’s currently a team option but would convert to a player option if Neris pitches in 24 more games.

Given his inconsistency, the Cubs aren’t likely to want Neris back at that price point. They’d presumably be happy to find a trade partner, but the potential for being saddled with a $9MM player option if Neris hits his vesting marker could make other teams wary. There’s less risk with regards to Leiter and Miller. The former is striking out 34.4% of opponents with a 50.6% grounder rate across 34 innings. He’s playing on a $1.5MM salary and is under arbitration control through 2026. Miller, whom the Cubs acquired from Seattle in May, has broken out with a 2.04 ERA while striking out nearly 26% of opponents across 35 1/3 frames.

Whether the Cubs get compelling enough offers to move anyone from that group remains to be seen. They’re not entirely buried in the Wild Card standings, sitting 3.5 games back of the last playoff spot (currently held by the Mets). With four intervening teams to jump, the front office has decided they’re at best a long shot to make the postseason. How much they’re willing to reshape the roster with the ’25 campaign in mind will be one of the bigger questions of the upcoming week.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/22/24

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We’ve already covered a few significant draft bonuses this evening. A few more $2MM+ signings from Monday:

  • The Phillies are signing second-rounder Griffin Burkholder for $2.5MM, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). Philadelphia had to go well beyond the approximate $1.35MM slot value associated with the 63rd overall pick to sign him away from a commitment to West Virginia. Burkholder is a righty-hitting outfielder out of a Virginia high school. Pre-draft scouting reports at Baseball America (where he ranked #50 in the class) and from Keith Law of the Athletic (who ranked him 71st) credit Burkholder with excellent speed and the potential for plus raw power at his peak. The question is whether he’ll develop an adequate hit tool in pro ball. He’s a developmental flier for the Phils.
  • Royals second-round pick David Shields landed a $2.3MM bonus, Callis reports (on X). That’s in line with the 41st overall pick’s $2.28MM slot value. Shields is a 6’2″ left-handed pitcher from a Pennsylvania high school who had been committed to Miami. One of the younger pitchers in the class, Shields is a projection arm with good athleticism and low-90s velocity at present. Law ranked him 43rd on his pre-draft list, crediting the southpaw with good curveball feel and a loose arm action.
  • The Rockies agreed to a $2MM bonus with 42nd overall pick Jared Thomas, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America (X link). That’s slightly under slot, which was around $2.22MM. Thomas is a lefty-hitting outfielder from the University of Texas. He hit .349/.435/.635 with 16 homers and 18 steals as a draft-eligible sophomore. Thomas split most of his defensive work in Austin between first base and center field, though he’ll likely get a shot at the latter position in pro ball. FanGraphs and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel each had him as a top 50 player in the class. Thomas draws praise for his solid power and athleticism, although BA’s scouting report raises questions about his propensity to chase pitches off the plate. Thomas struck out in 20.6% of his plate appearances during his draft year. While that’s a little better than the MLB average, it’s likely to rise in pro ball.

White Sox Agree To Terms With No. 5 Pick Hagen Smith

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The White Sox have deals with their top two draft picks. Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports (X links) that Chicago agreed to an $8MM bonus with fifth overall pick Hagen Smith and a $3MM sum with second-rounder Caleb Bonemer.

Smith, a left-hander from the University of Arkansas, was the second pitcher off the board. He and Wake Forest righty Chase Burns were 1-2 among pitchers in some order on virtually every pre-draft rankings. Cincinnati selected Burns with the second pick and signed him to a record $9.25MM bonus. Smith, the final top five draftee to agree to terms, lands the fourth-largest bonus of the class.

The 6’3″ southpaw worked from the rotation in all three seasons in Fayetteville. He had his best season as a junior, turning in a 2.06 earned run average across 84 innings in the SEC. Smith trailed only Burns among Division I pitchers with 161 strikeouts, an incredible 48.6% rate. Even with an elevated 10.3% walk rate, he was far too dominant for most college hitters.

Prospect evaluators credit Smith with a mid-upper 90s fastball and a plus or better slider. Baseball America notes that Smith’s 3/4 arm slot allows his fastball to generate a tough angle at the top of the strike zone. BA raises some questions about the infrequency with which Smith used his changeup in college, while The Athletic’s Keith Law noted that his setup on the first base side of the rubber made it difficult for him to attack right-handed batters on the inner half. Those quibbles (plus a Tommy John surgery which Smith underwent in high school) lead to some risk, but there’s also massive upside given the quality of his top two pitches.

Bonemer is a righty-hitting infielder from a Michigan high school. He’d been slated to attend the University of Virginia but will head to pro ball on an overslot deal. The 43rd overall selection comes with a $2.17MM slot value. Bonemer’s bonus pays him like a late first-round talent. Evaluators praise his power upside and give him a good chance to play somewhere in the infield. Law and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel each raise some concern about his pure hitting ability, with Law’s pre-draft report pointing to Bonemer’s tendency to get pull-oriented in his swing.

A’s Sign First-Round Pick Nick Kurtz

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The Athletics announced they’ve signed fourth overall pick Nick Kurtz. MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports (on X) that the former Wake Forest first baseman receives a $7MM bonus. That’s well shy of the approximate $8.37MM slot value, freeing up a decent chunk of money for Oakland to spend on their later picks.

Kurtz has been regarded as one of the best offensive players in the class for the last two years. The left-handed hitter reached base at an absurd .510 clip over his college career. He’s coming off a .306/.531/.763 slash line in his draft year. Kurtz walked at a massive 30% clip while striking out 16.2% of the time as a junior. He popped 22 home runs in 54 games.

Listed at 6’5″ and 240 pounds, Kurtz has obvious power potential. He’s an exceptionally patient hitter, although FanGraphs wrote in their pre-draft report that his approach borders on passive. FanGraphs ranked Kurtz as the #17 prospect in the class. Baseball America, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN and The Athletic’s Keith Law each had him in the back half of the top 10. The primary concern is in Kurtz’s limited defensive profile. While he’s a quality defender at first base, he’s already at the bottom of the defensive spectrum. The recent track record for highly-drafted college first basemen (i.e. Andrew Vaughn, Spencer Torkelson) hasn’t been great.

Rockies Place German Marquez On Injured List

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The Rockies placed starter Germán Márquez on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to July 19, due to elbow inflammation. Colorado recalled right-hander Noah Davis to take the open spot on the active roster.

Márquez heads back to the shelf one week after making his return from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander only made one start, tossing four innings of three-run ball against the Mets the day before the All-Star Break. A quick return to the injured list with another elbow issue is cause for concern, but it seems the Rox expect to avoid the worst. Manager Bud Black told reporters that the team hopes to have Márquez back within a couple weeks (link via Kyle Newman of the Denver Post).

Colorado is well out of playoff contention, so the priority is making sure Márquez gets through the ’24 campaign healthy. The Rockies signed the Venezuelan hurler to a two-year, $20MM contract last September. Márquez is making $10MM annually on a deal that was mostly geared towards 2025. Colorado knew that the former All-Star would miss a good chunk of this season as he finished his rehab. This season is largely about building his innings count so he can hold up over a full schedule next year.

This bout of elbow inflammation represents an obvious setback, although it’s possible Márquez returns in August and can pitch for a few weeks down the stretch. There was never much of an expectation that Colorado would trade the 29-year-old this closely removed from surgery. Today’s IL placement seemingly slams that door shut.

Austin Gomber takes the ball tonight against the Red Sox in the series opener at Coors Field. Márquez had been slated to go on Tuesday. Newman writes that left-hander Ty Blach is likely to get the start instead. Blach has started nine of 16 appearances on the season, turning in a 5.46 ERA through 59 1/3 innings. He could step into the starting five behind Cal Quantrill, Kyle Freeland, Gomber and Ryan Feltner. The Rockies are reportedly willing to consider trade offers on Quantrill and Gomber, potentially opening up another rotation spot or two in the next week.

Tigers Agree To Deal With First-Round Pick Bryce Rainer

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The Tigers are in agreement with first-round draftee Bryce Rainer on a $5.8MM bonus, reports Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (X link). That’s narrowly above the approximate $5.71MM slot value for the 11th overall pick.

A 6’3″ high school shortstop from Southern California, Rainer had been committed to the University of Texas. He was the second prep player off the board — Pittsburgh selected Konnor Griffin at #9 — in a college-heavy first round. Rainer was arguably the top high school talent in the class. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked the lefty-hitting infielder as the best high schooler and the #6 draft prospect overall. He ranked ninth or tenth on pre-draft rankings at FanGraphs, Baseball America and on Keith Law’s list at The Athletic.

Evaluators credit Rainer with the potential for plus power and the chance to stick on the left side of the infield. Scouting reports universally praise his excellent arm strength which would play at third base even if he outgrows shortstop. There’s some trepidation about his hit tool — Law notes that Rainer doesn’t have great bat speed and hasn’t handled plus velocity well — but there’s clearly significant upside if Rainer sticks at shortstop and can tap into 20+ homer power annually.

Detroit has five prospects in Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 update, including three players (Jackson Jobe, Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle) in the top 30. Rainer might not immediately jump into the upper half of that list, but he adds another high-upside talent to the farm system.

Angels Designate Adam Cimber For Assignment

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The Angels announced that left-hander Jose Quijada has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. Right-hander Jack Kochanowicz was optioned to Double-A Rocket City to make room for him on the active roster. Right-hander Adam Cimber, who was on the 15-day injured list, has been designated for assignment to open up a 40-man roster spot.

Quijada, now 28, underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and is now back. He has generally been a high-strikeout but also high-walk guy in his major league career so far. In 108 2/3 innings, he has a 4.89 earned run average, 30.6% strikeout rate but 13.8% walk rate.

That career was put on hold by his surgery, though his results have been fairly similar since he started a rehab assignment about a month ago. In 7 2/3 innings in the minors, he has struck out 41.9% of batters faced but also walked 12.9% of them. He’s out of options so the Angels have installed him back into their bullpen. He’s making a salary of $840K this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons.

Cimber, 33, was signed to a one-year deal in the offseason with a $1.65MM guarantee. He has had some good years but struggled in 2023 and was non-tendered by the Blue Jays. The Halos were undoubtedly hoping for a rebound but didn’t get it. The submariner currently has a 7.03 ERA in 24 1/3 innings this year. He landed on the 15-day IL just over a month ago due to right shoulder inflammation.

It’s possible the shoulder has been an issue for some time. He posted a 7.40 ERA with the Jays last year and then missed the second half of the season due to a right shoulder impingement, but had been quite effective prior to that.

From 2018 through 2022, Cimber posted a 3.20 ERA in 301 appearances between San Diego, Cleveland, Miami and Toronto. He only struck out 18.4% of batters faced in that time but walked just 5.8% of them and got 52% of balls in play pounded into the ground. But he’s now had ERAs above 7.00 in two straight years while going to the IL for shoulder issues in both of them.

Injured players can’t be placed on outright waivers, but that’s a fairly moot point. Cimber has more than five years of service time, meaning he has the right to reject an outright assignment while keeping what’s left of his salary. The DFA limbo period can technically last as long as a week but given Cimber’s injury and recent performance, he seems bound to be released in the coming days as the only other alternative would be a trade.

Assuming he is indeed released, the Halos will remain on the hook for the majority of what’s left of his salary while another club could sign him and only pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the active roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Angels pay. Whether he can find another deal will likely depend on the state of his shoulder in the weeks to come.

Elieser Hernández Signs With KBO’s LG Twins

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The LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization announced that they have signed right-hander Elieser Hernández, as relayed on X by Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net. The righty will make an annual salary of $440K. KBO clubs are only allowed to roster two foreign-born pitchers, so the Twins have put righty Casey Kelly on waivers to make room for Hernández.

Hernández, 29, once looked like he was emerging as a viable rotation candidate with the Marlins but has endured his share of struggles in recent years. He started 17 times for the Fish over 2020 and 2021, logging 77 1/3 innings with a 3.84 earned run average. He struck out 26.3% of batters faced in that time and limited walks to a 5.7% clip.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been near that kind of form since then. He struggled in 2022, getting bumped to the bullpen and also to the minors at times, finishing the year with a 6.35 ERA at the major league level. He was traded to the Mets going into the 2023 season but that ended up being a lost year for him as a shoulder strain prevented him from pitching in the majors and limited him to just 9 1/3 minor league frames pitched on a rehab assignment.

Here in 2024, he spent some time with the Dodgers and Brewers. He has a 6.32 ERA in 15 2/3 innings at the major league level and a 2.83 ERA in 28 2/3 innings in Triple-A. He recently elected free agency after being designated for assignment by Milwaukee and will now look for a rebound overseas.

Plenty of pitchers have been able to reinvent themselves in the KBO and have then come back to Major League Baseball, including Josh Lindblom, Merrill Kelly and Chris Flexen. The most recent success story is Erick Fedde, who won MVP in the KBO last year and parlayed that into a two-year deal with the White Sox. He’ll make $15MM on that pact and seems likely to be traded to a contender since he has a 2.99 ERA through 19 starts this year. That would be an absolute best-case scenario for Hernández but there’s plenty of precedent for guys going down this road and doing well for themselves.

As for Kelly, 34, he pitched for a few MLB clubs last decade but has been with the LG Twins since 2019. He has a 3.25 ERA in almost 1,000 innings for that club but his ERA has jumped to 4.51 this year. He was striking out 23% of batters faced in 2022 but that number dropped to 17.3% last year and is down to 13.9% in 2024.

Astros Select Aledmys Díaz, Designate David Hensley

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The Astros have selected the contract of infielder/outfielder Aledmys Díaz, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic on X. In corresponding moves, they optioned infielder Grae Kessinger and designated infielder David Hensley for assignment.

Díaz, 33, signed a minor league deal with the Astros just over a week ago. He had been with the Athletics since signing a two-year deal with them going into 2023 but struggled essentially from the moment that deal was signed. He hit just .229/.280/.337 with Oakland in 2023 and then spent most of this year on the injured list due to groin and calf injuries. He hit .103/.133/.103 in 30 plate appearances before the A’s moved on.

By releasing him, the A’s remain on the hook for what’s left of his $8MM salary this year. Any other club would only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the A’s pay. The Astros decided to step in by signing Díaz and sent him to the Complex League, where he hit .333/.313/.400 in four games.

The Astros will undoubtedly be hoping that he can put that performance with the A’s behind him and return to the form he showed in his previous stint in Houston. With the Astros from 2019 to 2022, he slashed .255/.313/.424 for a wRC+ of 102 while lining up at all four infield spots and the outfield corners. If he can get back into that ballpark, he can be a nice multi-positional bench piece for the Astros once again.

Hensley, 28, has been on Houston’s 40-man roster since August of 2022 but has been on optional assignment for most of that time. He has 128 major league plate appearances in 46 games with a line of .177/.273/.274 in those.

He had performed well in the minors prior to getting that roster spot but has tailed off since. He slashed .295/.395/.458 in the minors over 2021 and 2022 for a wRC+ of 124. He struck out 22.8% of the time but drew walks at a strong clip of 13.9%. However, a .380 batting average on balls in play suggested that performance wasn’t quite sustainable.

Over 2023 and 2024, his BABIP corrected to a more normal level of .308 and his line has dropped to .228/.358/.367. His walk rate increased to 16.6% in the latter stretch but he’s also been punched out 26.3% of the time.

The Astros will now have a week to trade Hensley or pass him through waivers. Since the waiver process takes 48 hours, they have five days to explore any trade possibilities. If any club has interest in Hensley as a depth piece, he can still be optioned for rest of this year and one additional season. He also has less than a year of service time and therefore many years of club control. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he would stick with the Astros in a non-roster capacity.

Luke Little Suffers “Likely” Season-Ending Lat Strain

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July 22: The Cubs today transferred Little to the 60-day injured list, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune on X. His roster spot goes to righty Julian Merryweather who has been reinstated from his own stint on the 60-day IL. Righty Hunter Bigge was optioned to make room for Merryweather on the active roster.

July 20: Cubs left-hander Luke Little was placed on the injured list with a left shoulder strain prior to the All-Star break last week, and today manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic) that the injury is “likely” to end the youngster’s season.

It’s a brutal development for the 23-year-old rookie, who has generally looked excellent since making his debut with the club back in September of last year. Chicago’s fourth-round pick from the 2020 draft, Little has posted a 2.76 ERA (158 ERA+) with a 3.61 FIP in 32 2/3 innings of work at the big league level to this point in his young career and has flashed the sort of high-end talent that could make him a potential high leverage arm for the Cubs in the future.

The hard throwing lefty averages more than 96mph on his fastball and has struck out a strong 28.8% of batters faced in the majors so far, but has to this point been held back by control issues. Little has walked an excessive 15.8% of opponents to this point in his career, including 16.5% this season. While his ability to avoid giving up homers (he’s allowed just one in his career to this point) has allowed him to post strong results in spite of that lack of control, his 4.29 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA both suggest that his current production isn’t entirely sustainable unless he can curtail his wildness.

Even with those potential red flags in his profile, the loss of Little is still a devastating blow for the Cubs. Chicago’s bullpen has been shaky all season due to injuries to their primary high-leverage duo of Adbert Alzolay and Julian Merryweather, which forced the likes of Hector Neris and Mark Leiter Jr. into more prominent roles. While strong performances from internal youngsters like Little and Porter Hodge as well as savvy external pickups like Tyson Miller and Jorge Lopez have helped to steady the Chicago relief corps’s production in recent weeks, only the Rockies and White Sox have blown more saves than the Cubs’ 18.

The news regarding Little figures to further tax a bullpen that also lost right-hander Hayden Wesneski to the 15-day injured list today, although Counsell told reporters (including Mooney) that the club believes that Wesneski’s forearm issue is not serious and that he’ll be back on the mound in Chicago fairly quickly. The righty has pitched crucial innings for the Cubs while swinging between the bullpen and the rotation this year and sports a 3.96 ERA (albeit with a lackluster 4.72 FIP) across 61 2/3 innings of work this season.

The continued stacking of bullpen injuries makes the relief corps an obvious place for improvement ahead of the trade deadline on July 30, but the Cubs haven’t made their plans for this deadline clear and entered today with a 47-53 record that places them dead last in the NL Central and 4.5 games out of an NL Wild Card spot. Should the Cubs opt to stand pat or even sell short-term assets such as Neris and veteran lefty Drew Smyly, the club will be left to hope that the likes of Merryweather and Alzolay can return healthy later this year and provide a boost while youngsters such as Hodge and Hunter Bigge step up to handle meaningful innings.

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