The Dodgers have continued their free agent spending spree, announcing a one-year, $23.5MM deal with outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. Only $15MM of that salary will be paid to Hernandez this year, as the rest is deferred and will be paid out in installments from 2030-39. Hernandez is represented by Republik Sports.
Reports about the Dodgers’ interest in Hernandez surfaced soon after the free agent market opened back in early November, and L.A. maintained that interest all the way up until today’s agreement. The Dodgers were known to be still be looking for a right-handed bat, and they’ve now addressed that need in a big way with a former All-Star and Silver Slugger who has hit 147 home runs over 3002 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 season.
After a string of productive years with the Blue Jays, Hernandez was dealt for Erik Swanson and Adam Macko last offseason, and Hernandez’s move to Seattle resulted in a downturn in his production. While he still went yard 26 times, Hernandez batted only .258/.305/.435 over 678 plate appearances, and his 105 wRC+ was well below his 133 wRC+ from 2020-22. Since Hernandez’s underlying metrics were largely the same as his career norms, it seems possible that the biggest culprit was simply T-Mobile Park. Hernandez hit only .217/.263/.380 in the Mariners’ home ballpark last season, as opposed to a much stronger .295/.344/.486 slash line on the road.
While Dodger Stadium has something of a pitcher-friendly reputation itself, it stands to reason that the 31-year-old Hernandez might get back on track in a new environment, and this one-year deal might reflect his desire to re-establish himself before committing to a longer-term contract. MLB Trade Rumors ranked Hernandez 12th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents and projected him for a four-year, $80MM deal, under the logic that the offseason’s lack of premium bats would still lead to a big contract for Hernandez even in the wake of an underwhelming 2023 campaign.
It could also be the case that Hernandez was open to a one-year pact specifically to join the Dodgers, as the outfielder is now joining arguably baseball’s most loaded lineup. Los Angeles already racked up plenty of runs in their 100-win 2023 campaign, and that powerful collection of position players has now added Shohei Ohtani to the DH spot and Hernandez to a corner outfield role.
Hernandez now gets to join a contender and possibly win a World Series ring, while ideally posting a better platform year that would allow him to score a big multi-year contract next winter. The Angels and Red Sox were two other teams known to be in the running for Hernandez’s services, and reporter Francys Romero and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (X links) each relayed that those teams had interest in the outfielder on two-year deals. In Boston’s case, Cotillo wrote that the Sox were interested in something akin to a two-year, $28MM pact.
Hernandez now looks to be the Dodgers’ everyday option primarily in left field, though he could slide over to right field when a left-hander is on the mound (thus sending Jason Heyward to the bench). L.A. is still perhaps a little unbalanced with left-handed hitters in its first-choice lineup, yet Hernandez now joins Mookie Betts and Will Smith as big righty swingers, plus the Dodgers have other right-handed bats in Chris Taylor, Manuel Margot, and Miguel Rojas available off the bench.
Margot was also recently acquired as part of the Tyler Glasnow trade with the Rays but is known more for his defense than his bat. Taylor can fill in at multiple positions, and his hitting also became a question mark after a down year in 2022, though he did bounce back with a 104 wRC+ over 384 PA last season. Having Taylor as a supersub around the diamond is perhaps a better use for his skillset than a regular spot in left field, even if defensive metrics have been mixed at best about Hernandez’s outfield glovework during his career.
Hernandez has never drawn many walks during his career, and his high strikeout totals add even more swing-and-miss to a team that already saw Taylor, James Outman, Max Muncy, and even Ohtani rank well below the league average in strikeout rate in 2023. Still, the relative lack of contact is something of a minor flaw compared to the huge upside provided by the Dodgers’ overall offensive attack.
The deferred money will lower the luxury tax number on Hernandez’s $23.5MM salary, but his signing represents yet another big expenditure for a Los Angeles team that has basically lapped the rest of the league combined in offseason spending. Led by Ohtani’s $700MM deal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract, the Dodgers have now spent slightly under $1.067 billion on free agents alone this winter, to say nothing of the extra money taken on when L.A. acquired and then extended Glasnow. As per Roster Resource, the Dodgers’ tax number for 2024 now sits at roughly $302.32MM, well over the Competitive Balance Tax’s highest penalty threshold of $297MM.
Even with the luxury tax bill continuing to escalate, there is little reason to think L.A. is done making moves, as starting pitching continues to be a need even after adding Yamamoto and Glasnow. More signings obviously can’t be ruled out, or the Dodgers could move more young talent in other trades for another starter. The sky is basically the limit for Los Angeles at this point, as the Dodgers have outpaced even their usual high-spending ways (with the many deferrals kicking the financial can down the road to some extent) in building a veritable superteam with Ohtani, Betts, Yamamoto, and Freddie Freeman among the cornerstones.
Reporter Moises Fabian (via X) was first with the news that Hernandez had signed with Los Angeles, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan (X links) reported details about the one-year term, the salary, and the deferred money.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Going all out…
Name a more iconic duo than the Dodgers and deferred contracts
Jealous fans coupled with a cheap owner
Legendary duo
Maybe so….but that ain’t me. Who am I to tell someone what to do with their money?
Give us a buzz when you actually win something.
And leading the league in pissing money down the toilet doesn’t count.
East – Is there really a reason to be jealous though?
It’s Teo …. dude’s OPS has had massive declines for 3 straight years. His .305 OBP and 211 K’s are the reason no team was willing to give him a multi-year contract for at least the same money.
I’m very happy about this signing, because it prevents my team from getting him.
Fever, a normal contract I wouldn’t mind but the Dodgers are making a mockery of the rules.
And where is Bowie Kuhn to reject these deals as I. the best interest of the sport?
@fever there’s this false notion that Mark Walter is some trillionaire and he’s playing a game with billionaires
He’s not the richest owner, meaning there are teams out there with more money.
So the jealousy lies in, our owner is the one owner that is doing everything to win, one could only hope their team owner would do the same.
Every team is capable of deferring money if they choose to.
@dewey: They’ve done nothing against the rules.
@dewey: Kuhn was a terrible commissioner who tried to block free agency in the 1970s, which is a big reason salaries escalated so much.
A’s owner Charlie Finley had the right idea of making all players free agents every year, but Kuhn and the other owners resisted it.
dewey – How so? The deferrals don’t impact the CBT because the CBT hit with the deferral is the exact same amount it would be without deferrals because the contract amount would have been lowered to match it.
You know the Red Sox are still paying Manny because $32M of his contract was deferred, right? The Dodgers aren’t doing anything different than what the Red Sox did with Manny, Sale, Devers, etc. They are just doing it with larger numbers..
The Reds deferred $57.5M of Griffey Jr’s $116.5M contract.
Check out Scherzer and Strasburg’s deferred payments too.
The clown in charge is too busy counting how many seconds between pitches to worry about such trivial matters as deferrals and luxury tax.
@Fever….I haven’t checked his FB/HR paths to see how playing Toronto and Seattle may have have affected his batted ball results.
But going by his home/road splits, seems like his home stadium the last few years may have played a role in those declines.
People not up on the data still view Dodger Stdium as a pitcher’s park, but it is more on the hitter friendly side in recent years
Nonsense. Few teams can afford to defer 68M for just one player. They still have to pay salaries for players those years that the deferrals come due.
East – No other owner can do the same as the Dodgers, because no other team generates as much revenue as the Dodgers do.
So while I agree some owners care more about profit than winning, it’s not the case with every owner.
@Fernando P: Every team can afford to defer salaries. They don’t all choose to so.
It’s just a financing arrangement not unlike a mortgage.
@Fernando P
This is simply wrong.
(insert meme of baby crying noise)
Yes. Angel fan here.
All that means is that the rules need to be changed.
njbirdsfan: Cohen last year, the Dodgers this year. Spending like that to win a WS will continue until it actually does result in a ring.
Fever: I wouldn’t gloat just yet. The Dodgers hitting coach turned J.D. from a throw away to a guy who’s going to sign a very large FA contract.
Blue Baron – It isn’t the concept of a deferral that’s objectionable, but the extent of how much is being deferred. If you want to defend that as those are the rules, then Kuhn should get a pass too as the reserve clause was the rule at the time.
I believe he’s also the guy that blocked Veeck from selling the Sox to his preferred group and forced Veeck to sell the team to his buddy Reinsdorf. The rest is misery.
But the reserve clause was an illegal rule as enforced by the owners. That was a court arbitration ruling that was never challenged.
No court has ruled salary deferrals illegal.
You not liking it is not a legal issue.
I don’t know how much revenue the Mets get from TV rights, etc , but that didn’t stop Cohen from setting the spending record last season.
It’s pretty much the complete opposite of a mortgage.
It could end up being $$$ well spent. I’ll get back to you in October.
The Dodger are paying for those deferrals right now. The actual AAV (46M) has to be put into escrow every year by the Dodgers even though Shohei may only get $2M per year right now. Not saying you’re wrong that most teams couldn’t afford to pay THIS deferral, but it doesn’t work like you’re describing. For Shohei it does, but that’s not how it works for the team. Very few players could afford a deferral like this is more accurate.
No. Reporters are just falling down on the job. The Net Present Value is really all that the contracts are worth. Ohtani only got $460 million, but the Dodgers held onto it for him in an interest-bearing bond (or equivalent.)
Teoscar’scobtract is really only worth $18-19 million (whatever the nov ends up being).
2²=4
2³=8
LOL!
“Stop with the hyperbolic BS,” says the guy who posts the hyperbolic “This is such a stupidly false statement.”
To say nothing of having one of the most hyperbolic usernames on here.
You obviously are unfamiliar with the saying, “Those living in glass houses (or grass houses) shouldn’t throw stones (or stow thrones).”
That’s a fancy way of saying practice what you preach, my friend.
Gotta give you props for a good chuckle, though.
They are putting $44 million a year in investments with a guaranteed, moderate return in order to pay the $66 million in ten years. The luxury tax hit matches what they are spending.
@Bookbook: *NPV
This site is sadly falling down on the job too by going for the billboard numbers without explaining what they actually mean financially. This might require being clear about the meaning of present value and what the rules require for set-asides, which though they aren’t really very complicated, seem to go straight over the heads of most readers.
The gamble is by then clubs will be having $500 million a year payrolls, eventually viewership will peak because the game got too expensive. Where that is? I don’t know I’m still able to afford my MLB,TV package relatively easy. Also debt is actually a depreciating asset because of inflation, so $300 million today is like the equivalent of $200 million 20 years from now….
@hiflew….Exactly! If the top 2% paid taxes at the rate as during the FDR administration, there would be – oh wait sorry wrong comment board.
The present value of this contract appears to be right around $20M, of which $5M will be set aside by the Dodgers for the future payout of $850k over ten years. Hernandez basically built himself a retirement account. A lot of players would be smart to do the same. Many of the get to the end of their playing careers having blown it all on old horses and fast whisky.
@Baron – I never mentioned anything about legality. My point is rules can be changed by the league. Isn’t that what Manfred has been doing every year (changing rules)?
Well again, deferrals aren’t debt because the teams are required to set aside the present value of the deferred salary. Basically they hold the deferred money like a savings account for the player.
No, the rules can’t be changed by the league, they can only be changed by MLB and the MLBPA because they are in the CBA. Nobody with any actual skin in this game has any problem with rules. The only ones with their hair on fire are fans who don’t understand the rules, or basic finance, and think these things should to change to accommodate what they don’t comprehend. Such is the world today.
Agreed but 50 years ago, Kuhn invoked the clause and negated sales Charley O did, selling Blue, Rudi and Fingers.
It had been determined by the court there would be free agency and that’s why Charley O tried to sell his players. Two different circumstances Blue.
It’s the ridiculous amount that I object to Fever. The money has to be paid for at some point and for the sake of the league, there needs to be balance. Maybe team fans didn’t realize it when it happened but picture the NBA without a cap. There are ways around it up to a point but then you have to adjust to make another move.
Avenger, many still believed in JDM. It was injuries that was more of the unknown.
Ask the prior Mets ownership about what happens when you misjudge your future income vs. expenses.
I’d have to check the rules but if it was true that they had to purchase something like an annuity, Cohen might have purchased the Mets earlier. That was a perfect storm of less than expected income due to Madoff, the team’s share of the new stadium cost + overall real estate values cratering where they had I believe other obligations maturing. Who says something different can’t happen in 10;- 15 years here? Doubtful but sometimes rules need to be changed to protect the overall sport.
Blue, plain and simple, the Dodgers are taking it to a new level and if it was really intended to work like this, we would have seen it many times before. Teams have deferred but now the Dodgers are doing both, paying top dollar now plus the deferred money. Was anyone expecting Hernandez getting a one year $20m present value deal?
My last post as I didn’t realize they would not line up. Apparently MLBTR and others had his AAV right so I’m wrong. I had not expected anything more than $45m for three. Just me. He will not age well in my view.
Not true fpg according to mlb the yankees generate the most revenue
Its not the deferrals. Its the $300,000,000.00+ payroll.
WS Champion Texas Rangers?
Bb
“Reporters are just falling down on the job. The Net Present Value is really all that the contracts are worth. Ohtani only got $460 million, but the Dodgers held onto it for him in an interest-bearing bond (or equivalent.)
Teoscar’scobtract is really only worth $18-19 million (whatever the nov ends up being).”
This. 100%
Every contract should be reported as the PV then the years, total amount, deferments, whatever
So Ohtani’s should read as something like $325 PV, 10/$460.
It’s a shame that sites like MLBTR have so many eyes on them and miss the opportunity to enlighten their readership.
No, the projection by this site was a 4 year deal. Due to the scarcity of bats in FA, I thought $20MM was likely.
RE stymee
“Its the $300,000,000.00+ payroll.”
I, as a Dodger fan who knows this will hurt my team, would be in favor of increased revenue sharing in order to increase competitive balance.
Kill the CBT
njbf
“Give us a buzz when you actually win something.”
Buzz
2020 World Series champions
NL West Champions nearly every year of the last decade
Most wins in baseball over the last decade
It’s a very exciting and interesting time to be a Dodger fan.
What fan doesn’t want to watch their team be competitive every year? A lot of people say they’d take 9 years of being terrible in exchange for 1 championship. That sounds terrible to me. Of course, I view baseball as a form of entertainment and not as an extension of my self-worth.
I know every year my team is going to perform on the field, provide memorable moments, exciting off seasons and trade deadlines, etc. I’d much rather that than two exciting weeks in October/November and 9 years of crap.
That’s an awful idea and Charlie Finley was notoriously cheap
davey – If you’re being sarcastic, you do realize he played in Seattle only last year. I’m fairly certain T-Mobile Park isn’t the home of the Jays too.
avenger – Yes the Dodgers coaching staff was ten times better than Boston’s, we saw the same thing with Brasier and Kike. Hopefully Breslow will recognize this and make changes soon, adding Bailey was a good start.
Thank – You’re right, however the PV is usually agreed upon between MLB and the players union.
However I remember Ohtani’s contract was valued differently by the union, I’m not sure what transpired from the difference if anything.
Kuhn was an idiot, but making all players FA at the end of the year is just as ridiculous as what he tried to do. So some team owners/decision makers are idiots, don’t punish the whole league cause of your incompetence. Glad we don’t have that
Blue – In all fairness to the MLBTR staff, they are probably tired of all the discussion about deferred payments. First and foremost this is a baseball site, not a finance or economics site. It certainly seems like deferred payments has been the focus here since the Ohtani signing.
Blue – I think it’s a matter of whether or not the players want to gamble on the ROI if they don’t have deferred payments.
Personally if I were Teo, I’d have taken it all now and invested it in a Roth IRA … especially with the stock market expected to do very well this year.
Blue – For accounting purposes, deferrals are treated as debt (liability).
@dewey Robby the robot is the large market’s boy. He will never do anything to thwart his masters, even if it is in the best interests of the game.
This is what will eventually kill the game.
dewey – I understand, I guess my question is what percentage do you consider acceptable?
Obviously at least 50% because you had no issue with Scherzer deferring half of his $210M contract.
I just don’t get why Ohtani’s $46M AAV is a problem to you, everyone expected him to get at least half a billion dollars and he actually got less. In fact his AAV is only slightly more than Verlander’s and Scherzer’s.
Pool – .
nbcsportsbayarea.com/mlb/san-francisco-giants/most…
1. Los Angeles Dodgers: $565 million
2. New York Yankees: $485 million
Yankees generate quite a bit more revenue than the dodgers.
All of the money the Dodgers spent last year and still no WS ring means money doesn’t always make a championship
Stymeedone. It’s a combination of present payroll, future obligations and tax base calculations.
Brian, yes Charley O was cheap but Kuhn recognized selling off players was not good for the sport. Last year’s Cohen deadline deals in my view should also have been rejected as not many other teams could afford to buy prospects that way. Put an amount limit on such transactions.
Stop with the lazy comparison between what the Dodgers did and a team like the Reds or Red Sox. Those teams weren’t trying to circumvent the tax penalties like LA is doing. It is apples and oranges
jjd
“Stop with the lazy comparison between what the Dodgers did and a team like the Reds or Red Sox. Those teams weren’t trying to circumvent the tax penalties like LA is doing. It is apples and oranges”
Stop with the lazy regurgitation of hot sports talk radio taeks
How is does this circumvent tax penalties for LA?
They will be be taxed on $46 million per year on Ohtani between 2024 and 2033. Which is how much they are paying him between 2024 and 2033.
Of course, and the $44 million per year that the Dodgers will be investing in an escrow account to fund Ohtani’s $68 million payments will grow significantly. Seems the Dodgers’ ownership knows a little about wealth management.
Dewey and Fever = Dewey’s point is valid. The Yankees spent 100 years exceeding spending limits to win. It worked the first forty years and then failed for sixty years but they still do it because all money OVER the CAP simply reduces profits but not substantially so the CAP is meaningless to teams that make massive profits like NYY, LAD and BOS.
Wait, what? Yep. Boston has substantial profits that would be reduced if we went over the CAP. I’ve been telling you guys this since 2018. There HAS NEVER BEEN A FINANCIAL crisis with the Red Sox. That is why DD told them he wasn’t going to reduce his available money for past mistakes. He simply promised to stay under the CAP spending for his guys. And he did and won. Breslow is in the same boat except Breslow inherited $8MM of retained payroll unlike the $41MM DD inherited. So being the genius that he is he increased the dead pay by $17MM so now we have $24.94MM.
Does that matter? In the big picture, NO. Boston could spend huge bucks on SPs and reduce the owners earnings a little bit and make the fans happy but it doesn’t appear that Breslow wants to make the team better quicker like DD did. He’s taking a slower approach like Bloom. Maybe he will improve the team or maybe he will be Bloom II. At this point, we have no idea because the team has not added talent yet. A small upgrade from Yorke to Grissom, a step backwards with Sale to Giolito, no firing of Cora and no moving of Devers. It’s been a couple of months of fairly insignificant moves. We all hope that will change before the 2024 season starts but NOBODY knows for sure.
Could Breslow run up the payroll to $300MM? Yes and Boston would make slightly under $300MM. Would it destroy the franchise? Absolutely not just like LAD and NYY have proven for years. Would the fans be happier? Yep, if Breslow signs successful players that lead to another ring.
So why isn’t it happening? Great question.
My grandparents bought me a savings bond for $17 that in a decade would be worth $25.
So the Dodgers did the equivalent of buying $460 million in savings bonds that would be worth $700 million.
paddyo = Got to stay away from the sites that summarize things like that. Incredibly inaccurate in explaining why things change.
Let’s looke at the obvious. The Dodgers are a better hitting team since they added Mookie and Freddie. Maybe that’s why it’s a more hitter friendly park. Also, Dodger pitching has gone downhill in recent years. Maybe that adds to the hitter friendly numbers incorrectly interpreted by a numbers site.
Fernando – Teams that profit by 1/2 billion per year are going to struggle paying deferred payments because? The team won’t be making 1/2 billion when the payments are due? Seriously? You don’t seem to understand what a lucrative business baseball is in big city markets like LA, NY and BOS.
Fever – Last time I checked NYY are still more profitable than the Dodgers and Boston is between 100 and 200MM less profitable but still profitable to do deferrals and go over the speed bump known as the CAP.
@Fernando P: Rules cannot be changed unilaterally by MLB.
All rule changes are and must be agreed to by both MLB and the MLBPA. That means owners and players.
Bookbook – The time value of money is a concept many baseball fans don’t buy into. I have tried to explain many times why Mookie didn’t take a discount with the Dodgers they actually paid him more than he asked for when his agent suggested 12 years and $420MM to the Red Sox. The NPV of Mookie’s deal was higher than 12 /$420 because $65MM was paid in 2020 when the Dodgers had money under the CAP available.
The AAV is all that matters. Hernandez’s $23.5MM is what goes against the CAP. They can pay him from now to 2050 and it doesn’t change the AAV that goes against the CAP. Cash flow in baseball is irrelevant.
TF – Did you notice from 2021-2022 his OPS went from .870 to .807 but his OPS+ dropped from 131 to 128.
Can 36 games in minor league parks really make that much of a difference in Park Factor?
You are 100% correct, a lot of these advanced metrics are bogus man. And they intentionally make it impossible to prove.
@Fever Pitch: I’m sure his salary would put him far above the adjusted gross income limit for Roth IRA eligibility.
The owners have more votes than the players…and Manfred has unilaterally approved the rule change over the objections of the players. That’s pretty simple to understand as opposed to saying that rules can’t be changed without X’a consent.
It isn’t a question of people understanding. People don’t agree with the large percentage of salary being deferred not with the concept of deferring salary.
I have no problem with concepts of deferrals. A 401K and IRA all defer money until later. Yet they have limits of how much can be deferred. That’s the bigger issue here. Sure, some are mad that Dodgers got X player and their team didn’t…but by same token there are plenty of folks defending this because they are Dodger fans.
mkeving: How do you know that?
@Fernando P: Which rule change was unilaterally made by Manfred?
And the owners have more votes than the players? You sure about that?
There are 30 owners, 30 team player reps, and 1,200 rank-and-file players on 40-man rosters.
And by people, you mean you. How much of salaries are you OK with deferring? Is there a fixed dollar amount or percentage, or is it just according to your whim?
As long as no rules are being violated, what is your objection based on?
@ deweybelongsinthehall. I don’t know about new levels. They are obviously taking the early exits from the postseason seriously and spending some of their enormous resources on reversing those results. They also have spreadsheets and sharp pencils so I’m pretty sure they’ve worked out the financial part. The deferrals mean a lot less financially than advertised. And even more importantly, no player can be forced to take one. Ohtani not only agreed to it, he suggested it.
As for Hernandez, his deferral is around $5M. A spit in the ocean, but it still has some fans acting like the Dodgers kicked their dog.
The Lerners were deferring before deferring was cool.
Thank_God – You don’t understand how this works. The team is not a family checking account.
Each team has many sources of revenues which lead to profits. The majority of the profits are not accounted for in the number published because they only include ticket sales and stadium related revenues which don’t create great profits. NYY, LAD both have profits of $500MM per year. That means their excess costs over the CAP reduce their profits but not by more than 10%. So the CAP is NOTHING to the big market teams.
The deferrals are NOTHING too. The CAP applies only to AAV which is established at the time of the contract. LAD has roughly $300MM of AAV in 2024 after the Hernandez deal. His deal costs them $23.5MM vs the CAP. If they defer his money to 2050 it doesn’t matter. That’s between the player and the club and impacts nothing baseball related.
Will LAD have enough money to pay deferred payroll going forward? You tell me. Take 1/2 billion of profits per year and tell me how much will be in their bank in 10 years and don’t make it complicated by suggesting the money is being invested and growing, lets just do 1/2 billion times 10 years. Yep, that’s 5 billion. The deferred money to Ohtani and others won’t be covered by the $5 Billion? Does that really seem like a financial crisis? A family can not have payments deferred without it catching up to them in the future but an organization that makes 1/2 billion a year can afford $100MM to $200MM payments going into the future.
These are the facts of baseball finances. It’s not like family finances and the numbers are mind boggling. Also, this isn’t new. Since 1919 the NYY spent nearly as much money as many teams combined. It led to a ring every other year for 40 years. That ended in 1962 when the team stopped finding talented players and started signing popular players and the winning slowed to nearly a halt. Yes, they had many winning team but not good enough teams to win rings so the last 60 years has seen them waste billions to be in the playoffs but not win much like the Dodgers. It’s not how much you spend it’s how smart you spend. The Dodgers passed on Seager and Trea Turner to get Ohtani and Yamamoto. Smart moves? Apparently not since Seager has a ring with Texas and Turner is on a team that has gotten as far as the Dodgers since he left. In a year or two, we can evaluate the $300MM the Dodgers are spending and see if it’s more of the participation trophy stuff. They love to brag about playoff appearances more than rings. That’s a typical big city mentality. The Yankees and Dodger are playoff bound and almost always lose. Teams like Boston, STL SF and now TEX may not make the playoffs annually but they come away with more rings. They get what it takes to win and LAD and NYY don’t. They just like bragging about making the playoffs.
@Wrian Washman: But Finley’s notion of making all players free agents every year was brilliant, but Kuhn and the other owners were too dumb to realize it.
@Fever Pitch Guy. Well, if they are going to say in more than one article that the Dodgers “spent” over $1B this year (which is just plain flat wrong) then they are inviting this controversy and stoking it. Besides, it seems like the business of baseball is a more frequent topic here than the game of baseball. What’s the problem with trying to get it right?
Bookbook – Again, it doesn’t work that way. LAD is charged $19.5MM against the CAP. That’s all that matters because it defines how much they will pay in Luxury Tax after the season. Cash flow is irrelevant.
@Thank_God: I have no issue with the deferrals or anything else that doesn’t violate the rules, and I am definitely not a Dodgers fan.
And any username with Thank God in it is hyperbolic.
And thanks but no thanks for the rest of your pseudo intellectual spewing.
Trumbo – 2 to the Ohtani is what? Largest number known to mankind.
@ Fever Pitch Guy. The players aren’t gambling. The return they get on the deferrals is guaranteed, so deferring is really the opposite of gambling. Might they get a better rate of return if they hired good money managers and invested it themselves? Perhaps, but this is entirely their choice. Some of these players might just recognize that they’re better off not having access to all of their earnings until they’re a bit older and more responsible.
TF – I thought you said you didn’t trust the profit data from Forbes?
Or are you talking about revenue?
I wrote only about revenue, not profit.
@Fever Pitch Guy. A liability is not a debt for accounting purposes. A liability only becomes a debt when money has to be borrowed to pay for it. They are paying for these deferrals the same way they pay for all salaries, out of cash flow. The CBA rules prohibit them from turning deferred salaries into debt.
BlueSkies – Cash flow is irrelevant and the numbers are agreed to by the player and team and the league has NOTHING to do with them. The league at the time of the contract establishes the AAV and that’s the ONLY number that matters because it is used to calculate Luxury Tax fees.
You would be amazed at how many players defer they payments to avoid worrying about a job after they retire. They could simply take the money up front and invest it but conservative people feel more comfortable with a future earning stream that covers them until they are old.
The Hernandez deal is not unusual and LAD will dip into their Billions of profits between now and when he gets paid so he has no reason to worry they will go belly up before he gets paid.
I thought they blew it on fast horses and old whiskey!!!
Fever – The writers should be smart enough to comment that the deferred payments are meaningless. They should focus on the real baseball number which is AAV and how it impacts the Luxury Tax calculation of each team.
Payments are cash flow and between the player and the club. They are completely irrelevant to discuss on a baseball site. As a former financial guy, I loved the discussions of Net Present Value but only as it applied to AAV related numbers. The misconception by many that Mookie signed below market value due to COVID continues to give me a chuckle about how much isn’t understood about finance on these sites. $65MM in Year 1 of a 10 year contract DRAMATICALLY changes the NPV of the contract. Mookie’s people got him a deal better than the one suggested by his rep to Boston (12 yr $420MM). His NPV was higher than the originally suggested fair market price for Mookie not less like so many people have stated on this site. No discount. Mookie got a premium.
Fever – Financial tip. Expectations don’t matter when buying a Roth or a Normal IRA. It’s an investment and it’s long term. Frankly, at his age I would have suggested taking the money and putting as much in an IRA as possible because his earnings after he retires will be far less than now so the tax rate will be incredibly lower at that time.
Fever – deferrals are not treated as anything when it comes to baseball. They are cash flow agreements between the player and the club and the debt of those cash flows is nothing compared to the equity of the club who is financing the deferral.
Dewey and Fever – MOOT POINT. Deferrals are irrelevant.
The AAV reflects his impact to the payroll of the Dodgers. They can agree to pay his great great grand children if they want to but the amount charged is based on the league evaluation of the term of the contract and total cost in year 1.
RE Tf
“The writers should be smart enough to comment that the deferred payments are meaningless. They should focus on the real baseball number which is AAV and how it impacts the Luxury Tax calculation of each team.”
Yes
But
It’s not about smart, it’s about knowledge.
People writing about baseball contacts should understand baseball contacts. And, and this is important, they should impart that knowledge to their readers.
You’re right that baseball media fails to provide the most relevant numbers to baseball fans when reporting contacts – the PV and the AAV.
PV is important so fans can see how much a player got
AAV is important so fans can see how much the player is costing the team – and this is only important so fans can see think about team construction.
Reporting a contract like: $325 PV, 10/$460 gives fans much more useful info than “10/$700” does. And the deferred payments just break their brains as you can see.
I wonder if everyone here who deferrs their salary through a 401K tells people they make some crazy amount, or if they just say “60k a year”.
Fever – Nice reference but read the numbers. Those are revenues and they don’t include everything.
Think as an accountant. Revenue less expenses define profits (yes over simplified). The segment of the revenues that is in this article is baseball related revenue not total revenue. The profits are the key to the success of the franchise.
The Dodgers baseball revenue has soared so your comment Fever is right for baseball revenues. We don’t get to see the total revenues nor the expenses to see the actual profits BUT you can use industry averages to get a feel for how much profit is made by each club. Remember, stadium and other depreciation etc all determine the actual profit.
The last expert opinion that I read from a NY Times baseball guy was that NYY are most profitable, LAD is second and Boston is third and the CUBS are forth. If I can find the article I’ll include the link.
Also, those numbers are low to compared to another report I read on Revenues. Both teams were well over $500MM with LAD at close to $750MM and NYY around $675MM with Boston around $390MM. That’s part of the problem when trying to compare. Who has the correct numbers if anyone?
@Trollfree. Cash flow is king! Teams deferring salary must set it aside at the present value, so AAV matters for that purpose too.
Older dudes might blow it on fast horses and old whisky. The younger ones are not always so choosy.
Blue Baron I agree they are within the rules . I can see why so many fans are upset by all of the deals with so much money being kicked down the road to be paid many years down the line all legal (deferred) payments is a loophole that should be handled next cba…. If these owners didn’t have this kind of money then in no way would they make these kind of deals? Am I missing something?
@East So you’re gonna pretend the Dodgers don’t have the massive security of a 8.35 billion dollar TV deal that runs through the next 15 yrs? While other teams RSN deals went bankrupt? There is exactly one team that is worth more and that is the Yankees. BUT the Dodgers have a lot more $ to spend as they are owned by a 300+ billion investment company.
Yep.
True, but it doesn’t mean the rules are good. Will be interesting to see how it comes up during the nexts CBA. Players are for it. Big market owners are for it, and although any team can defer money it’s still an operational cost that has to be absorbed eventually which small market teams probably wish to avoid.
@Thank God: And I live in the northeast, not the southwest.
@ Troll – You do realize that previous Dodger owner had money issues and had to sell team per the commissioner? Frank McCourt. Even large markets can have money problems.
And the Mets were raking in investment returns with the infamous Bernie Madoff. That “guaranteed” money disappeared and the team was strapped for money. Teams that were counting on RSN money are now cutting costs. Nothing last forever.
Yes, big markets are lucrative. Even though it is unlikely, it isn’t impossible that big markets can have money issues.
@Fernando P: And what are you so angry about? How does any of this affect you?
And Troll? Why do you feel the need to resort to personal comments and name calling? Can’t you participate in a discussion based on facts and merits?
You would be exactly correct. Excellent point that a lot of fans not understanding. Go LA
Ummm 2020
Ummm 2017 they took a cheating team to 7 games in the WS
So ummm yeh it’s safe to say they have won
Most MLB wins since 2006 as well
You know what I find funny about fans in general?
When it’s a team like the Dodgers, their postseason “failures” are waved away like they’re dumb luck. Pick another team though, and the same track record means they’re poorly run and the ownership should clean house.
So which is it guys?
njbf
“When it’s a team like the Dodgers, their postseason “failures” are waved away like they’re dumb luck. Pick another team though, and the same track record means they’re poorly run and the ownership should clean house.
So which is it guys?”
Here’s a big problem that a lot of people seem to have with internet discourse. Including me, on occasion.
Take any subject. I mean, ANY, and there will be people on both sides of it. And a million other sides as well
I think if you look hard enough, njbf, you might find some people that think the Dodgers need to clean house.
And I think if you look even harder, you’ll see that the people who think the Dodgers need to clean house also thought other teams need to clean house and the people who think it’s largely random chance also thought that about other teams.
Of course, you will find some people who have been on both sides of the argument. Maybe even me. That’s because people can change their minds about things – especially when they get new information. And that’s a good thing, you should.
Is it probabilities or a lack of guts or whatever that have lead to the Dodgers relative lack of championships over the last decade?
We know the probabilities. They say that the 1 Dodger championship is well within the range of expected outcomes
We don’t know about the internal makeup of the hundred-ish different players who have played for them over that time span. Nor do we know how much impact that has. Nor do we know the internal makeup of their opponents (what happens when two gutless teams play each other? How about two teams full of lion-hearted Champions?)
One of those ways of looking at it makes sense to me. One seems like trying to read tea leaves.
@Vogt: Were you happier when Bud Selig was commissioner, and he canceled the World Series and tried to bust the MLBPA and field replacement teams in an attempt to force a salary cap down the players’ throats?
And making all players free agents every year would have flooded the market and kept salaries from escalating like they have.
So much for ridiculous.
Kuhn’s motives were right. It was actually somewhat heroic. He cared about the fans. He was wrong about a lot of things but blocking Finely undercutting his fire sale to undercut free agency back then was s good thing.
Fever – I don’t trust any profit data. I use accounting norms for profit margins in the industry versus TOTAL REVENUE. It’s hard to find TOTAL REVENUE numbers. Baseball Revenue shows up many places and they always seem to vary.
I wish there was more transparency but I haven’t been able to find it.
Redsox/Dodgerfan
2020 shortened season. An anomaly.
2017 Boston, New York and LAD fell victim to cheating so there is no ring in 2017 for LAD because they may have lost to BOS or NY if HOU didn’t cheat.
Most MLB wins and a dollar will get you a cup of coffee at a diner. Wins are window dressing. Rings are the goal.
@TF: MLB players’ incomes are too high for Roth IRA eligibility.
And we can be reasonably sure that their agents connect them with competent financial advisers.
njbird – Great points.
Think about the Mineesota Viking losing SuperBowls and the negative commentary about those teams and the Buffalo Bills and “wide right”. The Dodgers do this with far more regularity than any other franchise across all major sports yet there is next to no blow back because they own the media..
Is that a bit of bad luck for it to happen so often or is there a philosophical issue with building teams to win long seasons but not short series?
I watch the Dodgers shed great talent in Seager and Turner to now sit without a quality shortstop so they could get a high profile DH/SP and another high profile SP for a billion dollars. Just writing that sentence throws up red flags. There is a great reason they don’t win more often. Bad decision making in the front office by a highly over rated GM who inherited a fully stocked farm system and has done very little to improve it or even maintain it.
The manager regularly makes lots of bad decisions that cost them wins, especially in the post season. And the marketing hype of LAD players goes well beyond that of any other team not named the Yankees. That’s how a guy like Bellinger stars and fails. Same for Verdugo, a hyped future star who failed. Jeter Downs a hyped future star who failed. It’s great that Friedman can influence the prospect ratings to aid in his trading but in the end over rated prospects don’t win you rings!! The same can be said for over-rated MLB players like Smith, Muncy, Taylor and now T Hernandez. On other teams they wouldn’t be credited with as much talent as they get credited for with the Dodgers. It’s smoke and mirrors and lots of money to buy depth. Depth wins seasons but not rings. Talent wins rings. That’s why Texas won in 2023 and Boston in 2018. They were the most talented teams and they knew how to win. Texas should be a force like Houston for years. The Dodgers are two injuries away from blowing a billion dollars. Much like the Yankees are contingent on the health of Judge and Stanton (Stanton not as much as the old days).
LAD has a high percentage chance of making the playoffs and an even higher percentage chance of being eliminated from winning the ring. Only the Yankees fall into that category too. Put your money on the Braves and Rangers and you long shot money on Baltimore.
Eventually Dodger ownership might end up selling in the future but I doubt it giving that inflation will continue to devalue the currency. In 10 years a $450 or $500 million payroll will be equivalent to $200 million in today’s cost. In other words, the Dodger ownership has determined that the national debt will continue to grow and more dollars will be minted. I believe it’s a good gamble, loaf of bread $3 right now probably be $5 then and minimum wage up to $30 an hour.
@Baron – Look it up. The Competition Committee is comprised of six owners, 1 ump and 4 player reps. Anything proposed by MLB can be approved over player objections as was done in 2023 and 2024. The phrasing “unilaterally approved” was used by players regarding 2023 rule changes.
Yes, owners have more votes than the players because 6 is greater than 4. You’ll surely defend that.
It doesn’t matter how many players there are. Mentioning that is a typical “what about” argument”.
I don’t know how much the limit on deferrals should be. I do know that allowing 97% of it seems too much.
As long as rules are not being violated? There are rules, spirit of the rules, etc. No point discussing with you. There are plenty of instances where rules were changed to make something better…not because a rule was violated. You clearly see only one side of the discussion…the one that benefits your team.
By the way, there are no income limits to a traditional IRA though there are contribution limits. There are income limits and contribution limits to a Roth IRA. But nice of you to cherry pick “Roth” over “traditional” when the other poster and myself mentioned IRAs having limits as an example of having rules/limits.
Have a good day. Not going to waste my time further.
But there are income phaseouts for tax deductibility of traditional IRA contributions, and any good accountant or financial adviser knows that there’s no point in paying taxes on money that goes into a vehicle from which distributions are taxable.
And rules are rules and spirits are spirits. In other words, if it’s not written, it’s not a rule.
And you’ve wasted the time of everyone reading your posts, so I have no idea why you’re suddenly concerned about that now.
Dodger fans and crippling Giants fans
Remember when those Giants fans killed a Dodger fan outside ATT like 10 years ago? Na, because that’s not the agenda.
I do remember Giants fans doing that actually. mercurynews.com/2013/09/25/san-francisco-dodgers-f…
No team has a monopoly on stupid fans, let’s all try to get along
abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=4790887&page=1
nesn.com/2010/04/yankees-fan-gets-2040-years-in-pr…
mercurynews.com/2013/09/25/san-francisco-dodgers-f…
denverpost.com/2013/09/27/police-stabbed-dodgers-f…
Pretty self explanatory, not sure why you’re responding if you don’t know
This website proves that every day.
Hey stupid, I was responding to a guy that said, “dodgers fans and crippling giants fans” meaning he brought up what you just said, and I simply responded that Giants fans have also attacked Dodgers fans
But the agenda is against the Dodgers, and you just proved my point perfectly.
I wasn’t talking to you, I even thumbed up your reply
Yea lol
Bryan Stowe or Rafael Reyna?
They’re going to have a higher dead money payroll in the 2030s than most of the league has in payroll.
man this joke just keeps getting funnier and funnier
It’s not funny now, but we’re deferring the laughter.
Budlight- I think the Astros and their trashcans give a run for the money of duos.
“See you around the old folks home”–Dodgers to their money
Phamm & Peterson.
Both who just lost hope on being signed in LA.
@oldgfan: *Pham. Nobody seems to want that guy.
Not even after I gave him an extra m ?
How about Pederson with a t ?
Market shrinking for sure…
Surprise, surprise, surprise! The Dodgers at it again! Any deferred $ in this deal?
The Dodgers and underperforming in the playoffs are a pretty iconic duo too.
Peanut butter and Jelly, salt and pepper, apples and cheese, steak and potatoes, sunrise and sunset, vodka and OJ, Laurel and Hardy, Rick and Morty, me and my buddy, CatDog … Almost anything that has two parts is more iconic than that. Well, that was easy.
Everything is iconic now. This word is has been worn down to nothingness by lazy writers who don’t know what they are trying to say.
I’ll and Ben Affleck
Funny, when the Nats did that, they called them cheap.
Josh Outman and Max Muncy
FTD!
Looks like there’s some rumblings about the Giants and Chapman coming to an agreement…I was thinking of keeping JD Davis is the better move if this is true.
Davis is definitely still under contract and I’m sure he would be great for that roll you mentioned. To me the hitting was pretty comparable last year between the two but less strikeouts for Davis if I remember correctly
That’s my concern, the Giants need to stay away from those Longo type contracts. Although he very well could bounce back to form with his old coach and Bay Area ties.
The Guardians finished runner-up offering $1.50
Dude struck out 211 times last season. Lol glad we missed out on him.
Copying the Mets of last year. Cuz that worked out so well.
22.5 mil deferred
$8.5M actually over a ten year period. This is becoming quite ridiculous.
I don’t mind the deferments but would like the AAV to be determined before that.
Nevr – That’s impossible. The “V” in AAV represents the total “Value” of the contract, which cannot be calculated until the deferrals are agreed upon.
FPG
“That’s impossible. The “V” in AAV represents the total “Value” of the contract, which cannot be calculated until the deferrals are agreed upon.”
I’m not a mind-reader, but I think they meant present value shouldn’t be used for deferred contracts.
So, Ohtani should count $70 million vs the CBT each year instead of $46 million
Yeah, thats being done now
The AAV hit is the today dollars worth of the contract. The money deferred is attempting to calculate for inflation, using the MLB stated %, for the years it will be paid. The AAV today is much different than what it will look like tomorrow
Think of it in smaller terms by doing this
“I will give you $100 today or in 10 years i will give you what $100 today will be worth at that time”
…either way it’s a hundred dollars today, but you may rather have the $140 or whatever it will be in 10 years
The AAV is going solely off today’s value, and not the inflation percentage thats being added for the future money. Why? Because today’s value of the contract is all that should be counted in such a number
Yeah, but if it was your team I bet you’d sing a different tune. Not you, though, right? Lol
Boo!
1-year @ $23.5 million?!….’Boo’ is a positive reaction lol !
It’s getting stupid now lol
MLB needed to intervene on a massive level when they tv deals went bankrupt. Not doing so created a ridiculously unfair playing field and that should have been easy to forecast.
The reason the stove never warmed up is bc teams are scared to spend due to tv deal fallout. MLB needed to see that coming and spend the league money to create a fair playing field instead of letting the dodgers and Yankees just sign whoever they want.
If MLB cared about ratings and fair play. You can’t tell
Hey the Yankees haven’t sign anybody this off season.
In fairness the Yankees haven’t done much this year. When the dodgers are bankrolled by private equity with unlimited funds, it’s a little ridiculous. Put a limit on the deferrals so teams can’t just do what the dodgers are doing.
The deferrals don’t add or subtract value of the contract, and due to the fact that the team has to put up money and set it aside for when the deferrals come due, it doesn’t affect how much money is required to affect a deferral.
It’s an accounting method that helps players by paying them at a later date by paying them more, not a trick that helps teams buy things they can’t afford or avoid taxes.
It’s a trick to avoid the luxury tax.
At this point I have to assume people are choosing to vent their frustrations by sounding ignorant as there is simply no way that anyone is so intractably stupid to not understand some very basic math and associated accounting complete with childlike explanations.
Millville – PUT A HARD CAP on and tell the MLBPA to shove it you know where for their hand in letting Houston get away with cheating.
A HARD CAP that can be comfortably reached by 50% of the organizations would stop the ridiculous imbalance and owners would have to find new ways to be effective. The big market poorly run teams would finish at the bottom of the barrel where they should finish for being so bad at their jobs. The well run teams would flourish until other programs copied their approach.
A Hard Cap would be awesome and it would still allow big market teams to have high profitability but maybe the media might treat teams more equally based on talent not size. Who knows, it could fix a lot as long as the profits are shared equally by the players and the owners. That would benefit the fans because prices for tickets could be more reasonable since the $100MM over the CAP that is being spent could be plowed back into the fans through better ticket pricing.
Radical idea giving the game back to the fans!!
@Trollfree: A hard cap will never happen given the strength of the MLBPA.
And even if it did, you’re amazingly naive if you think ownership would lower ticket and concession prices.
All it would do is put more money into the owners pockets while creating a fixed pie for player compensation, which is exactly why the MLBPA would never agree to it.
It would only benefit owners, not fans or players.
TF
“Radical idea giving the game back to the fans!!”
Radical idea telling owners they can only spend a certain amount on players putting millions of dollars back in the pockets of billionaires.
Great idea!
Same tired and ignorant refrain from someone with a highschool level understanding of economics.
You honestly think a team that knows i that it could charge $100 for a ticket would only charge $50 to “give it back to the fans? Ahh…to be do naive.
RE BB
Amazing how many people have 0 understanding of this
@DroppedThirdStrike Well said. We also need the opposite of the “Mute” button, where when you click an icon only your approved commenters appear.
Big Wiffa – Life isn’t fair. Your parents should have taught you that.
WH
“Life isn’t fair. Your parents should have taught you that”
Mine did
But they didn’t stop there
They also taught me not to be satisfied with injustice and to work to fix it.
Sounds like yous half-assed it
What a shame
Very nice
Is it ? You really want to be the only team that can afford free agents ? The league is wack and mlb should have seen all this coming and do smtg about it !
MLB can’t do anything about anything without negotiating with the MLBPA.
And the stakeholders don’t have a problem with it, only uninformed fans do.
The “uninformed fan” makes up the vast majority of people who go to games and follow the sport. Every single sports fan I talk too has a sour taste in their mouth toward baseball bc of how this offseason is going.
And the player association would have surely signed off on some sort of competitive agreement that gives owners a chance sign guys w mlbs surplus of funds they keep from suspensions and teams going into Lux tax. So instead of that money fattening owners pockets – how bout use it to create a competitive playing field during a crisis ??
Because both attendance and profits are rising.
You are arguing for a non-specific solution to a nonexistent problem.
You base that off results that haven’t compounded the fallout of all these tv deals.
Problem- owners lost millions of dollars they were projected to make to support their investment so now they are less competitive on the free agent market.
Solution- make league funds available to those teams who lost that money if they use it to sign free agents so league stays more competitive
And the problem was clearly foreseeable some 10 months ago !
Then if there is a real problem as opposed to one that exists in your mind, it will be up to MLB and the MLBPA to resolve it.
Or not right ? Bc that’s not how the system works. Typically there’s a problem, that problem gets exploited instead of resolved, then someone rich gets extremely richer bc they figured out how to exploit the problem. Just like the dodgers did in this exact situation. And the consequence of not dealing with the problem is that there is now a lower quality product and a negative image
If, as I said, there is a real problem as opposed to one that exists in your mind.
Bw
“make league funds available to those teams who lost that money if they use it to sign free agents so league stays more competitive”
What a radical idea
Use tax funds to support entities who are having trouble.
If only there were a way to extend that to humans and not just organizations worth hundreds of millions of dollars
After all this, they had better not underachieve. Will be massive pressure
Some of us will be very very happy when the Doggies aren’t world champions again this year.
They will win the west in a landslide, as usual. We will then see what happens in the playoffs. If winning the World Series is the only acceptable goal, they will most likely disappoint.
@10centBeerNight: Better not underachieve? Why not? How do you even define that?
Even if they do, life and the Internet will go on?
@filihok: That’s called the Earned Income Tax Credit.
A short contract with a high AAV makes no sense for a team in the Cohen tax bracket. However, it would have made sense for a different team and certainly helps him rebuild his value.
How so? Why would a high payroll team not want a contract that comes off the books immediately? Filling in the cracks in the depth with vets on short term deals is exactly what a high payroll team should do
This vs 3/60 would result in an inflated AAV. They can always let guys hut free agency and try to drop into a lower bracket the later years. They seem like the type of team that would replace him anyways with another high-priced free agent. Unless they have a replacement waiting next year, it seems like a better move for a non-tax team.
There is your JDM replacement.
For just double the price and 150 OPS points less.
Same defense
We don’t know JD’s price yet but I’ll bet it won’t be $10M again.
“For just double the price”
Oh no, how will the Los Angeles Dodgers weather this financial crisis?!
“And 150 OPS points less”
Shohei will carry that load, they just needed another RH power bat to replace a good chunk of JDM’s production against lefties and Hernandez should do just fine there.
JDM replacement is Ohtani
A one year deal?? Surely he left money on the table
From what team or teams?
None. No one can afford that sort of financial investment with their tv deal in limbo
Phj
“A one year deal?? Surely he left money on the table”
Maybe there is an important life lesson in here
What if maximizing every opportunity isn’t the best way to maximize your life
Suppose Teoscar signed with some team for 4/$80 or whatever. That’s obviously more than the 1/$19 PV he got from LA. Maximized!
Now suppose after signing this deal with LA, due to natural regression along with working with one of baseball’s best analytics and coaching staffs, he has a much better year this year and re- enters F/A next year and blows 3/$60, or whatever, out of the water.
Leaving money on the table can be a way to put money in your pocket.
This team is sickening
Well, they still have to beat the defending NL pennant winners on the field.
Preach, Clip!!!!! Tell it like it is brotha!!!
YC
“Well, they still have to beat the defending NL pennant winners on the field”
Love the knots that people tie themselves into to try and defend positions that make no sense.
Dodgers won more games than the DBacks last year. 100 to 94
Of course the argument will be “The DBacks won when it matters”
The same people will then say the Dodgers can’t win when it matters despite the fact that they’ve recently actually WON a World Series (something that the DBacks, you know, didn’t do) and have been to multiple World Series (you, know, the same thing the DBacks just did that they’re trying to tout as some big accomplishment).
Yes. The DBacks beat the Dodgers in the playoffs last year.
If you think they were the better team or will be the better team this year…
The Dodgers won the World Season in a 60-game season. Weak!!! That win definitely needs an asterisk beside it. I wouldn’t be running around and bragging about that WS ring.
I have a strong feeling in my gut that Ohtani tears his ACL this season. I feel it in my gut. It’ll happen while he is running the bases. He has a tendency to overdo it on the basepaths. Usually players in their late 20s and have a height over 6’3″ be a long track record in succumbing to the torn ACL.
The Dodgers will not recover and the 2024 will be a lost season for the Dodgers.
Troutahni
“I have a strong feeling in my gut that Ohtani tears his ACL this season. I feel it in my gut. It’ll happen while he is running the bases. ”
Cool story bra
Not sure which is worse. Believing this or thinking others will
RE Troutahni
“The Dodgers won the World Season in a 60-game season. Weak!!! ”
I know, right?
I can’t believe the Dodgers were the only team stupid enough to win the championship that year. What were they thinking? At least every other team knew enough to lose
Amirite?
@filihok Er, 100 to 84. Only missed by 10, though :L)
JSb
Or I was counting playoff wins as well, since, they, you know, also happened
JOKER HATERS LOL, every MLB team can do the same but they don’t have the creativity or balls to make these deals!
YESSSSSS WIN OR BUST, but isn’t that what it is every year no matter what????
I wish the Yankees were that committed to winning.
we’re only about $12.75 million less than the Dodgers in AAV right now… one Blake Snell or Josh Hader signing puts us past them into second place (the Mets are still way ahead paying players to play on other reams)
@bluepenis
Every team does not have the financial ability to have that level of payroll. For many it would simply be BUST!
So, all teams aren’t at the same financial level. Got it, thank you.
@TAKERDBACKS: Not if you take personally that which you can’t control.
@TAKERDBACKS The Dodgers have won me over. They had the brains to add a superstar in Betts and pay him what turned out in a few years to be the new normal for 30 yo 5-win shortstops. They signed Freeman out from under the Braves FO. Kershaw keeps coming back. In Glasnow they added another postseason arm twds winning a World Series—he was a luxury made possible by other sound practices over a decade.
They made themselves the one place Ohtani really wanted to sign. Then repeated the process with Yamamoto. They’ve built a tremendous organization, displacing even the Yankees in that regard.
They established a template for someone like Steve Cohen to follow and Cohen—who played at being a GM for 3 years with his new toy—just wasn’t smart enough to even come close to pulling it off.
A great team brought to you by a superbly run organization, a front office as good as the Braves’.
I suppose his money is deferred also. MLB has to do something to level the playing field
All teams are allowed to both sign players and defer money
Thumbs down. Only top revenue teams have the revenue streams to take on that amount of debt.
The cheap ass Red Sox strike put again.”Hey, would you mind waiting around until we dump a bunch of payroll before we talk about signing you? Oh, and don’t worry, the offer will be well below your market value.”
The Red Sox were supposedly offering 2 years, so he probably decided to sign with the Dodgers for less money.
I highly doubt the cheap sox offered 2 years and over 47 mil to make it worth his while. He chose a team to get a ring and still make money on a new contract next year. perfect pillow contract for him
I also doubt the Red Sox offered 2 years/$47M, but they probably offered 2 years/$28-32M which is more total money. I think he probably left money on the table and is betting he has a good year and his health holds up. Time will tell if it is a good gamble.
suit – Did Cotillo mention whether the Red Sox $28M offer included any deferrals? I’m just glad he rejected it.
BTW – How come you never say hi to me? Haha!
Corrado – Thoroughly enjoyed that, thank you!
Hi Fever 🙂 I haven’t seen any $ figures for what the Red Sox offered. I’m just guessing. I’m also glad he didn’t sign with the Red Sox. I’ve had a bad feeling about him and I also have a bad feeling about Imanaga. Hope he signs elsewhere too.
No debt is involved in deferrals. None whatsoever
Sure it is Blue Skies. It’s simple accounting. If the Dodgers were sold today those deferrals will be debt the next owner has to pay. All part of the franchise’s valuation.
Hi Suit!
With Shota it would all depend on the contract, I’m not expecting him to be more than a #3 SP.
How do you feel about Soler?
As for Teo, this is one instance where Boston’s cheapness was a good thing.
twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/174419249137972857…
Source: Red Sox weren’t competitive at the end for Teoscar Hernández, with discussions centering around 2-year, $28M framework and then petering out.
Thanks Fever. 2 years/$28M seems like a pretty fair offer to me.
suit – I agree it’s about what he’s worth based on the performance I expect from him, but as for current market value there will always be at least one team willing to overpay. Glad it was the Dodgers and not the Sox.
@i like al conin. No, it is not for reasons already explained elsewhere. No wonder so many people get so deeply in debt when the concept seems to be such a mystery.
Dodger – I think that’s fann’s point. He’s not accusing the Dodgers of doing anything wrong, he’s saying MLB needs to change the rules.
It’s hard to disagree when teams are allowed to both spend over $360M and under $60M.
Can you imagine board games like Monopoly when some players start off with $5,000 to spend and others start off with $500?
Fever, your framed this well.
Fever the fix is this, and, I say it as a fan of two of the richer teams in the game, Bos and Atl…
All revenues are pooled and equally divided. Without the As, Pirates and Royals of the league, the Red Sox, Dodgers and Yankees don’t have enough teams to play, do they? And MLB doesn’t have enough media markets either.
I say you do a redistribution, equally, of all revenues every season. Flip side is, you put a salary floor (no cap) for every season at (pick a number) say 80% of whatever the prior year’s revenue split was.
Things will even out soon enough, as the biggest teams can only backload things so far. And, a nice say, 20% gap lets teams piggybank for a few years to save up a bit.
Can you imagine a game where all the teams are not trying to win?
GASox – I don’t follow …. the pooled 31% of each team’s revenue is already split equally. What separates the payers from the recipients is the amount that is put into the pool. Larger revenue teams get back less than what they contributed, smaller revenue teams get back more than what they contributed.
A portion of the pooled CBT is also divided by teams that didn’t exceed the first threshold.
Fever –
1) pool 100% of ALL revenue from every team.
2) split all revenue among all teams.
3) salary floor is 80% (or pick a #) of prior year revenue split. Don’t hit the floor? Your next year split is reduced by the amount you failed to hit the floor.
No more cbt, no outside money going to a team to be spent on payroll.
Fever pitch
Oh yes, it is shocking that any form of wealth inequity could exist, that some could be born into unimaginable wealth while others are born into abject poverty.
Ironically, the wealthy can borrow as much as they want, but the poor who need money struggle to borrow it.
The smartest are admitted to top universities whereas the ones who need an education the most have fewer options.
There is more equality among baseball teams than in the NBA and NFL.
Baseball teams are a club of wealthy billionaires. There is nothing to prohibit Congress from conditioning the monopoly exclusions on a spending floor for each team. But given how partisan our world is today, I prefer to leave our flawed system alone for a while as baseball is entertaining. If you watch a game on a given day, your team has a chance to win. Accept the glass as half full and drink up my friends.
don’t stop at 31%. Make it 70-80% (allowing for larger expenses for larger markets). Give every team the ability to run a $220MM payroll, and remove the ability of some to run a $400MM ($300mm + $100MM in tax).
RE stymee
“don’t stop at 31%. Make it 70-80% (allowing for larger expenses for larger markets). Give every team the ability to run a $220MM payroll, and remove the ability of some to run a $400MM ($300mm + $100MM in tax).”
As a follower of the Dodgers who would be hurt by this, I, mostly, agree.
Up revenue sharing by a huge amount. That’ll level the playing field
So similar to the nfl?…mlbpa is way stronger than nflpa ..never happen as it would be viewed as limiting player earnings
Ro – Agreed, that’s why teams like Seattle and Oakland really tick me off because they are receiving revenue sharing and using it to turn two of the five biggest profits in MLB instead of spending it on player payroll.
GASox – 100% of each team’s revenue? No that is totally wrong, that is socialism right there. You’d be taking away all incentive for teams to use their hard work and intelligence to achieve financial success.
You’d also be putting some teams at a disadvantage because of the disparity in operating expenses. Payroll taxes, income taxes, real estate taxes, stadium deals, administrative wages, maintenance expenses, etc are not the same for every team.
So a team like the Red Sox who invested $285M in improvements to Fenway can’t use their higher revenue to cover the cost? While some other teams don’t spend a dime on venue improvements?
We would have some interesting discussions if we ever met in person! Haha!
But I definitely agree there should be some sort of minimum spending requirement.
stymee – Nope, you can’t take away the ability of teams to reap the benefits of their own hard work, intelligence and financial investments.
When you take away nearly all incentive, you are left with a bunch of unmotivated handout-seeking teams looking to pocket as much as they can … like the A’s and Mariners.
Fever – generally I’m against socialistic principles, but, it really is the only way to get the playing field as level as possible.
Under your thoughts of disparity you use a relatively small value of taxation and upkeep, which, all EASILY falls within that 20% or so not needed to be spent on payroll. What team owners would lose from disparity in those areas is their PROFIT to the owners. But the benefit of market size, which is arbitrary, defacto creates an inherently unfair and unlevel playing field by a scale far exceeding the factors of unfairness you cite.
To put it another way, if we say MLB generated 10B in revenue, that would be 333.33m per team on a pure equal split. 20% of that is what, 66.66m a year? I don’t know what each team.spends, but I’m sure that can cover property taxes they are responsible for plus capital improvements. And if accounting shows nobody can, make it 25% doesn’t need to go into salaries.
Players will NEVER agree to any salary cap. EVER. So equality has to come by equalizing what everyone has to spend.
Maybe you give bonuses to owners for hitting attendance milestones. That would incentivize venue spending.
Or, maybe you exempt capital improvements from revenue that needs to be sent to the pool. You can tweak some finer aspects, but, no, if you really want a way to level the playing field without access to a salary cap, the ONLY true tool there is becomes equal revenue to everyone and a big stick if they don’t spend a majority of it.
Fever – if you stop receiving money because you’re pocketing it, then you don’t wind up with the money pocketing owners. You simply can’t.
If I give you 200m, and say you MUST spend 180m of it, but you only spend 80m, the next year you’re given 80m instead of 180. You spend 80 again, and.dont put that 100 back the next season? Guess what, you only get 80 in the 3rd season too.
Maybe we even say MLB steps in and forces a sale, ala mccourt, if you keep failing to invest in the team.
GASox – If they don’t develop a hard salary cap and minimum payroll requirement, I’d rather continue to tax the heck out of the biggest spenders. But I know the union would never approve it, even though the minimum requirement would obviously be in the union’s favor.
I think getting the cheapskate owners to spend more is the main objective, rather than trying to reel in the biggest spenders. Many of the teams that went through periods of exorbitant spending learned the hard way that it doesn’t guarantee championships, and they then tapered off a bit on the spending. The Yankees, Red Sox, Jays, and now Padres and Mets have learned that lesson.
GASox – Yes you’re right, I didn’t account for your 80% spend stipulation when I made the comment about pocketing. My bad.
Fever – and that’s the beauty of a much more refined version of what I suggest.
You can’t get a salary cap. And you can’t get a taxation penalty level that creates a defacto hard cap. MLBPA won’t ever go for it. But, if you said we’re going to spread more money around to other teams with a requirement they spend it? Increasing the player share of the pie, drastically?
You bet they’d trip over themselves adopting it.
Think about it. Nothing stops an owner from developing The Battery or Fenway Corners outside of team control. And, a nicer stadium and better fan experience help increase the ROI for those products. So there’s another incentive for you for owners to invest.
And, while we talk pie in the sky ideas that would never happen, since the owners have to share all their revenue with everyone else, maybe there’s less incentive to inflate ballpark prices? Dare we imagine some.aspects of game attendance could be made cheaper in the interests of growing the sport, almost like marketing, so more fans sign up for TV packages when not attending games which is a much larger cash cow to the league than GameDay revenues?
Fever – It’s easy to miss the spend requirement, things that stink of socialism make me see red too, it’s easy to miss things in such a situation.
GASF
“It’s easy to miss the spend requirement, things that stink of socialism make me see red too”
LOL
The indoctrination is so deep
“This thing that makes total sense, I think it stinks, because of, well I don’t actually know”.
Filihok – The world has never seen true socialism at any appreciable or functional scale.
In every attempt there has been a blend of coercion by force and some being more equal than others. Every. Single. Time.
GASox – Thank you for mentioning The Battery, I have to plan my return trip there! Really loved the whole experience last year, maybe I’ll get to see Sale pitch.
GASox – I didn’t miss it when I read that post, I just forgot when I posted after. I’ve been posting more than usual the last 24 hours, I need to taper back.
But I have one person who thinks I post too much, and another person who thinks I don’t post enough, so either way somebody won’t be pleased with me. Haha!
GASox – Are you trying to get the All-Star Game taken away from the Braves again? ;O)
Fever, in order to lobby to get the AS game pulled I’d need to have quite a sizeable gap in my front teeth and put on a couple hundred more pounds…. 😉
As far as the battery goes though, I wouldnt mind finding an excuse to see sale pitch myself. Especially if they give him a bobblehead day.
It’s almost as if every team started off on a roughly equal footing, playing by the same rules, and some teams were then far better run than other teams.
Level the playing field? I’m no Dodgers fan, but they had an early exit again last season. It’s not like they’re running the table in the NL every year. Division winners? Yes. But as you can clearly see that makes little difference when it comes to the playoffs…..
Dodgers have ONE full season world championship since 1966…
They needed to win at least 2-3 full season world championships in the next 5 to 7 years to suggest the Dodgers are ruining the game.
Level the field? You mean hold back Arizona, Atlanta and Philadelphia so the Dodgers can catch them?
Seriously, the Dodgers have a great team on paper, I am certain the Dodgers will have a winning record during the regular season, but this is baseball not the NBA or NFL, you don’t now what will happen until the games are played.
Teoscar makes the Dodgers better. When I saw $23 million I was worried that it was K. Hernandez not T. Hernandez. Expected Teoscar to get a 3 or 4 year deal worth $18-20 million per year.
It’s not about what will happen in one season. It’s about the money buying longer competitive windows than most mid and small market teams.
Al: You can’t stop competitive imbalance. Why? Because you cannot regulate where a player or players choose to sign. If players choose to, they can gather on a super team, ie, the NBA, and win championships.
Do you think the Orioles won’t have a longer competitive window than most teams with the money they saved over the past decade and getting first-round picks every year from tanking?
There is no competitive balance in sports. It’s an illusion –
Odd comment because changing the rules can always lead to better competitive balance. Maybe not perfect but better than this. And MLB knows this but the players pushed back in the last CBA.
I’m not a salary cap guy at all, but the deferred money does allow the bigger markets to coerce free agents through deferred money. something small markets aren’t usually willing to do because they don’t have an idea where there books lay money wise 10+ years out so the won’t take that risk anyway. someone like the dodgers, Yanks, etc have a better idea of just due to the fact of what they take in now. especially those teams that have their own broadcast rights and own channels. For example the dbacks just made the world series and don’t have any revenue coming in next year from tv
Changing rules does not lead to better competitive balance, imo. Look at the NFL…
Yeah certainly a valid point Yankee Clipper. But it’s not absolute and there could be tweaking along the way. Same with legislation, it might not fix it the first time.
Well, I admit I was looking at that in a very, very specific context. So, I do understand what you mean in a broader context and you’re right, Al. Really, the problem is more complex than a single fix-all solution I guess.
I do think it’s possible to make the game and competition better, but I truly worry about the solutions that Manfred and Co would implement. They seem to go in the wrong direction more often than not.
Good points, Yankee Clipper.
You don’t need to know anything in 10 years.
Contracts are guaranteed. That doesn’t mean “whoever owns the team in 10 years will pay you “.
Teams must escrow the money @ 5 % risk free .
It’s the Madoff/Costanza Rule.
MBMVP
“Level the field? You mean hold back Arizona, Atlanta and Philadelphia so the Dodgers can catch them?”
7/10 troll.
Better than average. Not great
To suggest the DBacks are better than the Dodgers is insane
That the Phillies are better is crazy
The Braves have an argument.
YC – Exactly! Spending guarantees nothing. Look at the Yankees the last 14 years. Top 5 payroll every season and not one pennant appearance. Let it play out on the field.
The only reasonit made sense for Ohtani was he got to break a record for biggest sports contract. Teoscar certainly isn’t breaking a record for biggest 1 year deal here, so I don’t get the point of this vs taking less and putting it in a bank. Is it preferred since players don’t want to invest their money themselves?
Does it occur to anyone that, like Ohtani did, Hernandez may have asked for the deferral.?
Dave – He might have, but he wouldn’t get the tax benefit that Ohtani could get because of the 10-year rule.
No way fans are crying about a 1 year deal for a mid tier free agent
#3 in most strikeouts in 2023 with 211…
Do what? Anything you think should be done to “level the field” would need to be negotiated with the MLBPA in the next collective bargaining agreement.
I guess we shouldn’t be surprised, they have all that local TV money while half the teams in baseball wonders if they will ever get theirs.
Might be slowly trending towards being like the Globetrotters and Washington Nats for certain franchises.
Dogbone – You’re absolutely right.
For example when Fenway Corners has been completed in about a decade from now, it will create a massive new revenue stream of which a large portion will be funneled into the Red Sox payroll.
So enjoy the next 10 years while you can, Dodgers fans.
Fever – this is one place you and I disagree.
I think once the corners is completed, a large portion of the revenues will flow upwards into FSG, then be paid as dividends to the large fractured ownership with some money funneling downwards to work on revenue stream increases for Roush, Liverpool, Penguins, etc.
GASox – Think of it this way:
1.6 million square feet of retail, office and residential … all with far more earning potential if the shoppers, workers and residents can walk across the street and watch the games biggest stars play for championships. The wealthiest of the wealthy will be flocking to that neighborhood, as long as there’s an attractive product on the field.
Spend a ton to make five tons, FSG is well aware of that concept.
And it’s a growing trend, ask the Texas Rangers.
cnbc.com/2018/08/09/texas-rangers-join-trend-of-sp…
Fever, the problem is its Boston. People will go there whether the sox win or lose.
At the end of the day, the sox are already cleared $513m in 2022. In a down year. With bloom product.
And they can’t and won’t spend with the best of them? There’s NO reason Breslow shouldn’t have a 350m budget with that much cash, inclusive of any CBT penalties. But they don’t.
That’s enough for you to know any Corners money will line the pockets of the hedge funds and fat cats who own FSG shares, and.not be poured into the team.
@Dogbone: You mean the Washington Generals.
Come on Dodgers, just sign Montgomery and Snell and get it over with!
Boras clients? If so, probably not likely
They may be the only team who can afford either player lol
Not true at all.
So the joke is not true? Go figure?
These Dodgers fans are so sad.
Which Dodgers fans?
@CF: Which joke?
UGH!!! I think I puked in my mouth.
Hey THEY LIVE, are you pacman?
No I’m not Pac-Man …
No worries! Thought you might be someone from a place I used to post. Thanks for answering! Are you a Giants fan? I am! Go Giants!!!
Enjoy the strikeouts!
And we’ll also enjoy the home runs! Batting in the 6 hole and he’ll hit 25 jacks
Man oh man, as a braves fan I’m always inclined to say that the braves have the best 1-9 lineup but I’ve got to say that this signing makes the dodgers and braves dang near even in that category. If both the braves and dodgers can stay healthy our offenses and pitching staffs are very close together and I hope to God baseball can finally get past the weird post season crap that’s been happening and watch both division winners in the braves and dodgers battle it out in the nlcs. It’ll be one of the best postseason series in recent memory. I’m not a fan of all the dodgers spending, but that’s just any fans normal jealousy of other clubs coming out. I will say I don’t hate the dodgers and I genuinely hope to see them vs the braves in the nlcs. They are almost identical talent wise, the dodgers are more expensive, but it’s just nitpicking because the braves have one of the highest payrolls as well. Neither club better not fail to make it past the nlcs again because that is a waste of both teams talents. They are pretty much cut and dry the two best teams in the league, and an nlcs between the two might be more intense and fun than the ensuing world series. This past year when Atlanta came to Los Angeles, that series was amazing, it was fun, it was gut wrenching, and the talents of each team, but also mookie and acuna fighting for MVP supremacy, man as a baseball fan, not just a braves fan, you couldn’t ever possibly ask for more out of a series between two elite teams, but just imagine the emotions and everything else in a do or die, 7 game nlcs battle between the best? My God I’m excited just thinking about it, and how well each team is constructed, and so close in talent!
Dude the Dodgers are clearly the better team and all the betting affiliates agree
Redsox/Dodgerfan – Well the betting affiliates are always right so why play the season? Oh wait, they are seldom right so your comment is meaningless.
Fans bragging about the quality of their line-ups is as old as the game and the bias never permits a logical review of the facts.
If you want to go position by position I’d rather have the Texas Rangers line-up than either the Atlanta line-up or the Dodger line-up but frankly the Atlanta line-up is nearly equal to the Ranger line-up but the Dodgers have too many pretenders in their line-up. Once you get past Betts, Freeman and Ohtani, the other teams are all better. Acuna needs to stay healthy more than any other player on the three teams because he’s the biggest impact player across the three teams.
The Rangers quality youth is extremely impressive especially with Lankford and Porter and even Walcott so close to also making an impact. If deGrom is healthy and Scherzer recovers their pitching staff blows away the Dodgers and Braves. Everyone slept on the Rangers in 2023 and the arrogant top teams are over looking them again in 2024.
Houston will also be a team to follow because they lost a legendary Manager. Their dominance may be at an end and the Orioles may become the team to beat in the AL along with the Rangers.
What on paper? LMAO I can’t even talk bout how stacked 2 teams are without one saying, well we are better. How about you go bet on the dodgers to lead in in very hitting stat in baseball and watch your money float away. You know what’s funny? The braves led in homers, runs scored, ops, all the advanced hitting metrics, etc, not the dodgers, and even with the dodgers adding ohtani and teoscar, the braves still out homered your team by 20. So by all means go with the betting favorite, because they damn sure won’t be an all time historical lineup like the braves had this past year.
first time I have read a sane and fairly friendly comparison of the NL’s two best and most successful squads–from a Braves fan. Kudos. @Braves-Saint-celts. Let’s get it on.
Enjoy the defense as well!
And the opportunity to make the playoffs win the pennant and hopefully win the WS you know like every team should be trying to do
If the dodgers win the WS it’s not going tk be because of teo
He doesn’t have to be the reason why. Just a part of it is good enough for me. And all I have to say is David Friese so the postseason hero can come out of nowhere
I heard they got the family from the conjuring to get Ruth’s spirit and help them as well.
Underrated comment here lolololol
Payments to the family will be deferred as well… obviously.
the family from The Conjuring is dead, so you’d need someone to conjure them up first
That’s an over pay by 5 million. Guy gonna strike out 200 times a season and take very questionable routes on line drives. I thought he deserved a 3 year deal with opt out after 1 but I guess he’s ring chasing now
Interesting take. I did see him at 3 years/$60 million or 4 years at $72 million. One year at $23.5 million seems like a team friendly deal, even before any deferrals.
How is this team friendly? It’s closer to market value, edging towards overpay. They paid a premium to limit it to a one year deal. Dude is on the wrong side of 30 and his bat has declined for three straight years. Here’s his OPS and OPS+:
2020 – .919, 146
2021 – .870, 131
2022 – .807, 128
2023 – .741, 106
Maybe the Dodgers work their magic on him but $23 million for barely above league-average hitting and a 2 WAR is crazy for a FA signing, even considering how much salaries are taking off.
RCT
Once players reach a certain age and experience level, when you sign them for a lengthy multi-year deal you are paying more for the first few years than the last few years based upon a projected decline in production.
So Teoscar might be worth:
Year 1. 25 million
Year 2. 20 million
Year 3. 15 million
Year 4. 10 million
Even though that averages $17.5 million per year, getting one year at $23.5 million might be better than four years at $70 million based on projected diminishing ability.
RE rct
“They paid a premium to limit it to a one year deal”
That people who don’t understand something get it eventually backwards so often in uncanny
Teams don’t pay a premium for a one year deal, they get a discount for multi-year deals. This is because they assume risk on multi-year deals – the risk of injuries or decline.
It’s easier to predict 1 year in the future then 2 or 5 or 10. So one year deals have less risk.
Then, as MBMVP said, most free agents are in or nearing their decline phase.
So, their production is expected to drop. They won’t produce as much in 2025 as 2024. That decline gets factored in and brings down the average yearly payment.
I doubt the Dodgers are expecting the barely above league average offense you are projecting for him. I think they probably look at the circumstances around the declining numbers, the raw abilities, and their own staff’s abilities to identify how to get the most out of those raw abilities. Look what they got out of JD Martinez and Jason Heyward last year. If you are betting against the Dodgers getting good value out of Teoscar at that price, I don’t think you’ve been paying attention to the Dodgers.
KK
Without diving into it too much – Hernandez would be expected to bounce back a bit anyway
Factor in the Dodgers’ analytics staff and coaching and becomes more probable
Manny – No offense but your theory is BS.
First = guys don’t decline in a straight line fashion over 4 years.
Next – EVERY contract is more likely to have a better return in a one year deal than four year deal at the same price.
Last – A player might have a bad year in year 1 and a good year in year 2 and that shoots your theory to pieces.
Generalizations don’t work. It’s the same level of inaccuracy as the bogus modern metrics. Theoretical estimates rarely reflect reality.
Troll free
First = guys don’t decline in a straight line fashion over 4 years. AGREE – my numbers were hypothetical to illustrate my point. But the downward trend for players over 30 is fact when applied to a large number of representative players.
Next – EVERY contract is more likely to have a better return in a one year deal than four year deal at the same price. NO – see your next point. The MAJORITY of one year deals are better than long-term deals, but not “every” contract as you say.
Last – A player might have a bad year in year 1 and a good year in year 2 and that shoots your theory to pieces. NO – that happens a lot, but there is a pattern of clear regression as the player gets older. Good players get longer contracts and in addition to aging and injuries, there is some regression to mean.
Generalizations don’t work. It’s the same level of inaccuracy as the bogus modern metrics. Theoretical estimates rarely reflect reality.
Manny – So basically players trending downward after 30 is actually a player by player situation and a generalization doesn’t really apply to every player and the ones that it does apply to are unknown. So how valuable is the inaccurate estimation. This is exactly how the modern metrics work. Gross generalization that don’t apply to specific players are used to attempt estimating the future accurately but they don’t.
Is Mookie declining after 30 because he put us his best season since 2018 at age 30? Or is it more likely he’ll regress in 2024 and spring forward again in 2025?
Guess what? We don’t know. Just like EVERY other player. It hasn’t happened so using trending may or may not be as accurate as evaluating the place in the batting order, the players around him and his personal life. If there was a RIGHT way to guess the future the person figuring it out would be rich beyond his or her dreams but there isn’t so self proclaimed experts build complicated algorithms to determine the most likely estimate but in the end it’s NEVER the most likely estimate because the future is unknown. It’s pure luck when it’s correct.
RE TF:
“in the end it’s NEVER the most likely estimate because the future is unknown. It’s pure luck when it’s correct”
Absolutely false
And spoken with the certainty that only someone with no understanding of the topic could muster.
EVERYONE has the ability to predict the future. We all do it constantly.
And everyone here makes predictions about the futures of baseball players. The difference is the people using algorithms take the time to check their predictions and refine them over time. They also frequently report on their accuracy, something that people who criticize and just blah blah blah never do.
One thing that people who do projections should do better is make sure they make clear that they aren’t projecting a specific number, but are projecting probabilities around a mean. Maybe that would help A FEW of the non-understanders to understand
But a great many are to ignorant to realize how hopeless they are. If they weren’t so ignorant, there would be hope
Wow! The Dodgers are all in this year.
It’s not all in when you have a tv deal paying you like 250m a year. They print money
I get they can afford more than any other team. They can afford much more than all but a few teams. This is the first time they’ve added this much talent in a single year.
They had over a 300m payroll before. They have spent more then 400m more then any other team the last 10 years.
@Simm. This isn’t true. Sorry but you should really check your facts.
It is true and well known.
It is not well known and nobody knows it except you.
If “they print money” why are they deferring so much? A good financial person, not armchair GMs like all over these posts, should know this deferred money is future team debt.
Because Shohei wanted to. Deferments aren’t new. There has never been another player that is willing to defer as much money as Shohei did, and that’s the difference.
I believe he could have signed a multi year contract. He must have wanted a chance to be part of the Dodgers super team. Hopefully he doesn’t suffer an injury (could he costly).
Hopefully, the Giants decide to sign someone so their pathetic fanbase can do something productive with their time.
Why do all of you giants trolls show up for no reason? Jealousy maybe?
I wish I despised the Giants, but I actually just feel sorry for them.
A lot of them seem to take it for granted but I wouldn’t feel sorry for a fanbase that most of them have seen their team win three 162 game championships in their lifetime. People are nearly 35 and have never actually seen the Dodgers win a single title in front of their own fans after a 162 game grind
Oh yeah, 2020 was a real walk in the park.
No fans in the stands in 2020.
But the cardboard folks loved it.
Red Sox were to stubborn…facepalm reaction
Supposedly Teoscar was holding out for 3 years and the Red Sox would not go over 2 years. Not sure what the money was. His numbers are slipping a bit and the most he has ever made is $14M. So, this is a pretty large overpay.
Suit – Just learned $8.5M will be deferred, but still don’t know what the Lux Tax Salary will be.
Probably around $20M, which BTW is more than Yoshida’s $18M that some here have been complaining about.
It’ll be close to Yoshida’a but for a single season. Yoshida’s deal is bad.
Fever: I would rather sign Duvall instead of Teoscar, but I think the Red Sox may be avoiding everyone that Bloom signed which is not good.
Brian – Yoshida ran out of gas last year, he had a .870 OPS on July 30th.
In fact, from April 20th (when he made a batting adjustment) thru July 29th he had a .920 OPS.
Let’s see how he does this year before passing any type of judgement on his contract. There’s a reason why so many teams have approached the Red Sox about him.
suit – I totally agree! Change just for the sake of change is not good.
I would be perfectly happy to have one of Soler, Duvall or Turner.
I’m very glad they didn’t get Teo.
Red Sox Amex is maxed along w 70% of the rest of the league. What a dark offseason !
The deferred jokes aren’t old…
deGrom – if they are not old, they are definitely overused.
I meant that the premature jokes turned out to be valid here since they did indeed defer his salary. Those guys were right.
Now can we defer their commissioners trophy for another 15 years to match the salaries?
This is all the dbacks fault
What a surprise!!!
Since it’s 1 year what’s the tax hit? They’ll be paying a big penalty on it since they are into the highest penalties
Double the contract. Technically whom ever they sign is an HUGE overpay, with the tax obviously.
I would bet he had at least a few 2 yr deals for more than $23.5. I suppose it’s admirable on his part to leave money on the table and go for a ring
The most disgusting off-season in #MLB history continues! Congrats phony losers of LA who feel entitled to this on your tainted ring because no other team can come remotely close to competing with your wallet!
Wrong. There are owners who are richer than Mark Walter. It just depends on if they regard as an investment or feel they owe their team’s fans the best team possible.
Nobody is supporting the team they own with their own money. It’s all about the team revenue and the Dodgers have more revenue than any other team.
The Yankees have more revenue. They happen to own their network as well. So do the Red Sox. So do the Orioles. The Dodgers are just better at allocating those resources and better at making financial deals.
The Yankees are second in revenue to the Dodgers.
copium!
The Mets spent $100 million more than this last season. I sure hope you were at least consistent in being a whiny baby about them last year as well.
Sounds like you’re really bitter that the billionaire owner of your favorite team isn’t going all out spending team revenue to try to win. It’s generally accepted that the point of baseball is to try to win. It’s not a contest where you try to win by spending as little as possible. Winning the offseason rarely results in winning the WS. So relax. Also, if your team was doing this you’d be all for it. So shut your cry hole
Yeah but no other teams can afford top free agents due to fall out of tv deals. So now the dodgers can just sign whoever they want. MLB could have easily predicted this and changed the offseason to be more competitive for the quality of the sport. Yet instead they did nothing.
So there will be one happy fan base and 29 disgruntled. That’s a big problem to have !
Also, it’s 2024. When are u going to stop shaming other peoples feelings ??
The Yankees can afford it. The Giants can afford it. The players just want to play in LA.
Mickey, let it happen. Take some Pepto.
Maybe its time for some fresh air
Need any Kleenex?
“Kleenex” is too costly for the everyman these days. I roll with 1 ply generic from the PX @ March AF base.
Would’ve been a solid fit here.
It remains to be seen if top free agents want to come to Anaheim. Hard to make the case after their recent history.
They will… just to be close to the Dodgers
I had him going to angels and thought it would happen
Somebody stop them!!
A one year contract being deferred in 6 years from now? That doesn’t seem a healthy trend for the sport
Its been going on for years. The Reds are still paying Griffey, Nationals deferred several players, Bobby Bonilla, etc. Most of the money still counts against the cap now, you’ll see more teams do this for cash flow, expected TV contracts to pay out more in the future and major salary cap increases 10 years from now. This is only a smart plan if you have a 4 year run like they do now
I get what you’re saying. However, what the Dodgers are doing is not the same as Griffey or Bonilla because they’ve now done it a few times over in the same off-season with way bigger dollar amounts. To say it’s been going on similarly for years is just silly.
And here goes the whining and crying……
Hey John Henry this is how a team that cares goes all In….
By crippling the future? I guess if they win a few rings in the next 5 years sure, but if not, the 2030’s are going to be bleak in LA
Who cares about 2030’s and it won’t cripple anything. Cheap owners cripple teams
When they vote to abandon CBT using a contract values and current discount of future conpensation system and just go to a straight ‘any money paid out’ system instead we can all laugh.
I made a joke with a friend earlier about it but the Dodgers really might as well just sign Hader at this point
All this deferred money will enable them to sign Hader and I think it’s going to happen.
@Gmen
If Hader is still out there on Feb 1, I’ll bet the Dodgers do sign him.
When they don’t win it all this year, what will happen to Dave Robert’s?
He’ll be replaced by the next figurehead to sit on the bench, execute the front offices orders and win absolutely nothing
Other than getting fired, nothing whatsoever.
Willie
“When they don’t win it all this year, what will happen to Dave Robert’s?”
He will come back next year and manage because the F/O
1) knows much more about what he does than the average fan on MLBTR
2); the F/O actually understand baseball and the likelihood of any given team winning the World Series any year
Lmao it IS a deferred contract JFC
Massive overpay lol
They’re spending a lot of money for a first round playoff exit
Mets 2.0
Signed ’em up, trade them when it goes south
Or they win the pennant, it happens just as often in the last 6 years.
Congrats. You’re the one millionth person to make that joke!
Queue the crying and whining
Loved this guy and wanted him back in Seattle…BUT the SOs drove me insane all year long especially in clutch situations with runners in scoring positions with 2 outs. But he will go thru stretches where he can carry the entire team for 2-3 weeks straight. The Dodgers are gonna have $100m/yr in deferred salaries in another 10 years, without these players in their team. Yikes. You know all of us non-dodger fans will be pretty excited to root for an early 2024 playoff exit…like we’ve been doing with the Yankees and Mets over the past decade. I love it when these teams that spend like this don’t even make the playoffs (ie: 2023 Mets)
MLB needs to make it so Any deferred money is the responsibility of the originator of the contract. Non of this trade them and get rid of all they committed to pay.
I like hearing that you loved him in Seattle. He certainly had a down season and could easily have been a player the fans were frustrated with. He’s not my favourite profile of player, but he is my favourite player. I’m a Blue Jay fan who really disliked last season. They won 89 games so they weren’t a ton worse than the 90-92 win team they were in the previous couple of years, but they were a whole lot less enjoyable to watch. They lacked the charm that players like Teo who looks like he likes playing baseball bring.
Dodgers are even outdoing the Yankees this year, grabbing up all the high profile players. I guess if they sign every free agent then they fugure no one else can improve? Dodgers and Yankees can play golf together when NY doesn’t make the playoffs and LA gets beat out in the first round by the dreaded #6 seed!
This is what happened during the steroid era! Everyone knew what was going on but enjoyed the revenue and every effort to profit their product! They’re doing it again through fake free agency!
Fake free agency? Please explain
lol the deferrals are getting funny at this point
Why are the dodgers the only team deferring money? The mariners are on a tight budget because of the root sports thing, right? Why not sign someone and defer their salary until a time where the broadcasting thing is all figured out?
I dont know how it works, but I assume the deferred money in those future years would hurt most teams. Like Once Ohtani and Teo retire they will be on the payroll for the cap. The smart thing for the Dodgers is that the luxuy cap will be much higher in 10 years so the hit will be less impactful.
It doesn’t count against the luxury tax later it all counts now. Deferred money does not count against the future payroll.
It does thats the whole point of the Ohtani deal. The cap hit is only $46M they say.
Right but that’s the current AAV. It doesn’t count in 2030+
So where did the $700M come from? Where is the tax implications of the extra funds?
The way it works is the take the present value of the contract and spread it equally over the life of the contract. The present day value of the 700 million is 460 million. Since the contract is for 10 years they take a hit of 46 million per season.
That $700 million is mostly a marketing gimmick so that Ohtani gets to claim to be the highest paid athlete and his agents get to advertise this contract to future clients. The value of future money is lower since inflation will degrade the value of the dollar. I believe the cumulative inflation from 2014 to 2024 was 32.5%. Not sure how they calculated the $460 million but that sounds about right.
They’re not. It’s just the only team you hear about deferring money right now. If you look there are several current players with deferred money. National were famous for doing this when trying to re-sign members of their championship team. But, a bunch of teams do this, it was just unprecedented to do 98% like they did with Ohtani. But that’s because nobody would ever request that…..until Ohtani. So he’s an exception in many different areas.
But the Reds just finished paying off Griffey Jr’s deferred money and Sale just renegotiated his co tract which had deferred money built into it.
But to answer your question, which is a good one, it would have to work for player and team. I think many teams just don’t want committed money hanging out there in the future. Yankees are notable as being one of those teams.
The player had to want to defer… teams can offer but it’s the player that decides. Problem is the owners who let the players union add deferred payments in the CBA way back when these rules were implemented. Sure it helps the players earn more but in these cases it can start to affect the competitive balance.
There are rules about deferring money. I think the team has to actually HAVE the money, not promise money they don’t have. There was an article about it a few weeks ago – I’m not sure where.
Teams need to escrow an amount that is sufficient enough that, when plugged into a specified rate of return (I’m not sure what it is, 5% annually?) Anyways, the amount needs to be enough that when the year hits that the deferred payment is due, the money should have grown enough to make it enough to pay the amount.
So, say you need $5m in 2025 to have enough to pay the deferred portion of the first year due on the contract in 2035 you escrow that. Then in 2026 maybe you pay in $5.2m because that’s what it now takes to pay 2036 contract.
But for a team, you BOTH need to escrow now, but, know you’ve got surplus cash flow in the deferral year to make up the difference if you had to.
Could the royals pay ohtani his 2m this year? Sure. Could they afford the escrow? Yeah, that too. If the markets crashed, and the money didn’t grow? No, they’d be crippled in the first year the money was due.
So that’s the other part of why you don’t see other teams so aggressive on the deferral bus.
GASox – Great post! But to say the Royals could afford to pay $46M a year for Ohtani – $2M to him and $44M to escrow – is a bit of a stretch.
$46M is EXACTLY half of last year’s entire team payroll, I don’t see them being able to increase their team payroll by 50% for just one player.
Fever – in the mid teens… say around 2014-2017 or 2018 the Royals ran payrolls in the 110s to 120s million per season.
And given inflation of all things, we’ve seen they can make a 5 year run of salaries that would’ve been exactly what adding an ohtani level payroll would be, and, if you adjust for the last 5 years inflation, one could argue they should easily be able to afford 140+ million payroll.
GASox – You’re right, in fact they had a $141M payroll in 2017 and were in the upper half of the league.
Where did they get all that money back then? I admit I haven’t followed the team that closely.
Fever – you got me curious, so, I pulled up their team page…
Look at the correlation between spending and attendance, not to mention record:
baseball-reference.com/teams/KCR/attend.shtml
It’s almost like they are keeping the money instead of investing in the team. That is the true evil of all this, not the free agent or the team willing to spend.
And they still choke in 2nd round, just watch
Everyone talks about a down year for Teo. 90+ RBI’s is still -90+ RBI’s.
Cant wait to see the dbacks win the nl west lol
Phj
“Cant wait to see the dbacks win the nl west lol”
You’re going to have to
LOL
Pool – Same page!! The Dodgers are a pretty team that will make the playoffs and not win a ring. That’s not a tough prediction since it’s almost a constant for decades. They love the participation trophies but don’t have what it takes to win the ring except during a 3/8ths season.
For me, it comes down to which NL East team will knock them out this year? Phillies look to be better than them in the post season, ATL looks to be better than them in the post season and of course the recently pesky Diamondbacks might be their speed bump two years in a row.!!
When you have unqualified managers running the show it’s really hard to win rings. The Red Sox had to overcome the completely incompetent Cora in 2018 and the Dodgers and Yankees have similar issues with their managers. Well liked but very bad decision makers.
TF
“The Dodgers are a pretty team that will make the playoffs and not win a ring. That’s not a tough prediction since it’s almost a constant for decades. ”
Laughable
“Because a team with Mike Piazza and Eric Karros didn’t win,a team with Mollie Betts and Freddie Freeman can’t win.’
Then, this utterly pathetic bit of logic
“don’t have what it takes to win the ring except during a 3/8ths season.”
The Dodgers can’t win in the post season except that season when the post season was the relative part of the season.
Especially coupled with this
“When you have unqualified managers running the show it’s really hard to win rings. The Red Sox had to overcome the completely incompetent Cora in 2018 and the Dodgers and Yankees have similar issues with their managers. Well liked but very bad decision makers”
Roberts is unqualified, except in that season when his decisions arguably had the most impact due to the post season making up most of the season.
The problem with these people is that it’s pretty damn easy to say who won’t win a championship in any given season.
But, there’s a reason that in roulette you don’t win if you guess which number won’t come up.
Fillhok – Since I can’t reply to you directly here is the response to your response.
I never mentioned Piazza or Karros you did. I said a team that has failed to win since 1988 yet has been in the playoffs more often than not is a team that can’t win the big one. The future is unknown so nobody knows if LAD will win ever again or every year. The odds are something in between the two extremes but nobody knows the future.
Your laughable comment is ignorant because you are laughing at a fact that has actually occurred. I didn’t create the bad results of the Dodgers since 1988 they did.
You keep suggesting this is logic on my part. It’s simply a statement of fact. You have failed to win a Ring since 1988 except for the shortened COVID season which was an anomaly.
If you want to argue that Roberts is a good manager then you don’t watch all the games he blows like Cora and Boone. They are all idiot managers compared to Boche, Kennedy and Francona. They are closer to Zimmer in managerial skills than Dusty Baker, another great manager. That helps explain why NY has been over a decade and LAD has been since 1988 for a full season ring. And why in his first season in Boston Cora couldn’t dismantle the greatest team on the planet that year but he could by the following season and every season he’s managed since.
Your comments are Dodger fan rhetoric which is nothing more than a rationalization for poor performances in the post season. Some fans like participation trophies, you don’t have to justify your unique non competitive fandom to me. I know enough Dodger fans to recognize they are about the glamour not the success.
One last point. If you flip a coin 100 times and it comes up heads 75 times and tails 25 times it’s safe to say heads was a better bet during the 100 flips after the fact. Much like reviewing Rings since 1988 and seeing only one legitimate one for LAD suggests the success rate is extremely low yet the playoff participation success if high. Choking in the post season is an awful thing to watch as a fan of any sports team!!.
TF
“not is a team that can’t win the big one. The future is unknown so nobody knows if LAD will win ever again or every year. ”
This you stating the future with certainty?
“The Dodgers are a pretty team that will make the playoffs and not win a ring”
So predictable that an ignorant blowhard will talk out of both sides of their mouth on a topic.
“I never mentioned Piazza or Karros you did”
Yeah. No [crap]. You’re the [person] who for some dumb reason thinks that what Karros and Piazza did is relevant to what the Dodgers will do in 2024. That’s, of course, absurd.
“Blah blah blah’
Nothing substantive enough to refute. Just mindless hindsight
“If you flip a coin 100 times and it comes up heads 75 times and tails 25 times it’s safe to say heads was a better bet during the 100 flips after the fact.”
Right. “After the fact”. You’re the one claiming, out of one side of your mouth at least, that the coin is more likely to keep coming up heads.
Knowledgable people know that this is dumb
Gaming the system and giving the rest of the league the middle finger. I hope the new CBA screws them good.
Friedman putting Dodgers in position to be successful in 2024. Giving Dodgers talent to bring WS Championship to LA.
Making case for Executive of the Year.
If spending money made you executive of the year it would have gone to the mets ppl last year or cashman and the yankees…it doesnt take talent to throw money around..just money
I felt pretty good the MLBTR prediction was going to be excessive, but I didn’t expect he would have to settle for a one year deal.
Chaim Breslow is still “interested”
Still first round exit
Do these guys have like 70 roster spots? Every time I look up they have a new signing but you never see a corresponding move.
njbirds – Lynn, Kershaw, Brasier, Kike and JD to name a few who are no longer on their 40-man.
Was hoping for Hernandez in Boston but not at $23 million. Oh well, maybe Soler…
Rsox – Soler is the better choice of the two anyway.
But I wouldn’t mind bringing back Duvall or Turner for one year either.
Deferrals five years after the one year deal is over. Wtf
Honestly, why the heck would the dodgers have to defer 8 million dollars. Save a million bucks in aav? Makes no sense. Maybe they are out of money, fingers crossed.
Dodgers going all out this year. Understood shohei’s deferrals but why defer like 8 mil over that many years? Just feels like the dodgers are trolling lol
Remember when the Mets spent a ton of money and signed everyone to ridiculous contracts? How did that turn out? The Dodgers will probably be a force but let’s not hand them the commissioner’s trophy just yet. I can’t wait for baseball season!
The results aren’t the prime issue here. It’s the taxes. It’s money being cheated away from the system. Win or lose, the dodgers will be cheating away 30+ million from deferment aav tax calculations.
We can only hope they lose in the process.
That’s not at all how that works. Not even remotely
He could have done so much better
The Dodgers payroll will be north of 250mil for the next 50 yrs due to deferr payments. Shitts getting riduculous Manfred needs to step up say u can only deferr soo much. Basically they gettin these guys to sign cheap say well pay u later just come here and make history.. Where does the money go they owe them iff something happens to that player 50 yrs in the future??
Here’s your bottle.
Nothing manfred can do since it’s says so in the cba. Dodgers have been doing this they have deferred money on Betts and freeman as well.
North of $250mm in 50 years (or even 5-10 years) will be childs play
Tax dodgers. So there deferment schemes are now getting them out of what? Over 30 million in cbt payments.
I’m serious when I say every other team should either sue for tax fraud or sign every 1 year deal they make to pay league minimum now and the rest deferred to Jan 1 the next year.
Between this malarkey and all the rule changes the players are against, the next cba is gonna be a fight.
JSC C
“So there deferment schemes are now getting them out of what? Over 30 million in cbt payments.”
Can you please take a 101 level finance class
This is not at all how it works.
Take Ohtani’s contract. They weren’t going to pay him $70 million in 2024. They were going to pay him something around $45 to $50 million. And that’s what’s counting against the CBT.
“I’m serious when I say every other team should either sue for tax fraud ”
They won’t. Because it is in NO WAY tax fraud. Tax fraud would be defrauding the US government or state or local governments. They aren’t doing that.
“sign every 1 year deal they make to pay league minimum now and the rest deferred to Jan 1 the next year.”
What would be the point of that? Every team could do that, but why?
” the next cba is gonna be a fight.”
The CBA is always a fight.
Cheap Padres hmph
Padres aren’t cheap they just got dumped by Bally and owner passed away. Mlb is a mess this free agency because half the league uncertain about their revenue with Bally right now
The Padres aren’t doing jack. The contacts doled out in the past don’t count. This recapitalization at its finest.
OK great, fills the biggest position need with the best fit available, and on a short-term deal, too. Dodgers are doing exactly what they need to do.
Next move will be to package prospects for Clase.
Remember when the baseball offseason was fun? Remember when you had mid market teams signing big free agents which created buzz and excitement throughout the city and drove fans to the ballpark? If MLB doesn’t take action this will absolutely kill the sport.
It feels like MLB is hoping by the biggest markets having the best teams a la NBA in the eighties there will be more national TV interest.
FA rarely give the return on the field.
It’s good for baseball….
Well the US is in debt 34 trillion so let’s all just push it down the line.
Maybe it will turn into the Mets Part II in 2024 for the Dodgers. How’d that attempt to buy a championship work out for the Mets? Guess we’ll see.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they underperform. They have 5 starters who can at the most go 20-25 starts a season. That leads you to some potential issues in those other 30-40 games. Also, one guy has never pitched in the MLB, two or three have injury issues and one is getting older and at some point, will breakdown. Average pitching can get you through a season if you have a studly offense, but once the postseason rolls in, you better have 3 healthy/very capable starters.
and, in LA’s case each of the previous 2 postseasons, be able to hit with RISP.
You wish…. But not likely.
The big difference is that the players the Dodgers are signing are in the prime of their career. We can’t count on them breaking down like the Mets.
How much money will be going out total for 2030 and beyond for non-roster players?
Hernandez will bat.225 hit 30 HRs have OBP of.295 and lead the League in strikeouts… Not a great investment too me
“…as the outfielder is now joining arguably baseball’s most loaded lineup.”
Not sure about that. Certainly good, but I’d still rank the Braves and Phillies ahead of them.
That is why they added the arguably.
Thus the comment.
All these deferred contracts make me wonder if the current ownership team has an exit plan for 2030. They all seem to start around then if I’m correct.
Perhaps thats when Chavez Ravine sinks into the sea…
Ohtani can opt out if they do.
Dodger are doing what the Yankees can not. Sign players.
Maybe the fans should intentionally not show up when the Dodgers are the visitors? I mean, that is one thing that would make the owners pay attention (a loss of money).
Your hate and tears are delicious. Yum yum yum. I hope they trade for cease and sign Hader and complete the construction of the Death Star
I need to hire Luke Skywalker then.
If you get Luke Skywalker, then the Dodgers get Old Ben!! Zobrist…Not Kenobi.
Remind me again, how’d things turn out for the Death Star?
Joining the “arguable” most loaded lineup. Still not as good as the Braves. Ozuna is a better hitter and gets to play DH while this guy will be patrolling the OF. Lol
Agreed on the Braves having the better lineup. Most of the Braves lineup has been built by either smart trades or the farm. The Dodgers are probably starting to wonder if they even need to waste money on a “FARM SYSTEM” when they can just buy their stooges.
Ozuna? The guy who had two awful years before this last one. He’ll go back to average again, its his pattern. And how is a trade and sign really any different than a FA. They didnt develop olson or Murphy or ozuna. They have some studs but i bet the dodgers go back to outscoring the braves this year again just like 2022.
Pretty sure I mentioned that the Braves used smart trades in my comment. This would include trades for Murphy and Olson. Ozuna was a pretty good signing though.
Sorry, felt like a dig at the dodgers for buying guys when braves have done the same via trade first here and there. And dodgers did w betts and now glasnow. I dont like the dodgers but they’ve had some important farm pieces through the years – buehler urias seager smith. This offseason they’re the 2009 yankees so we’ll see if it works.
Who knew Bobby Bonilla would shape the whole Dodgers philosophy.
And the Dodgers lose the World Series this year. And the next. And the next. On and on!
the day all that deferred money is due, the Dodgers will claim bankruptcy.
The Dodgers will have $1 billion in excess value just from the Ohtani contract. When that contract is complete the Dodgers will be the biggest sports franchise in the world, by a lot.
Unless Ohtani’s arm blows out for good and he can’t pitch anymore.
The excess value comes from the interest they’ll earn and the marketing in Asia. Ohtani’s arm isn’t part of the valuation.
sports.yahoo.com/1-billion-boon-shohei-ohtanis-211…
You don’t think Ohtani would be less of a celebrity if he blows out his arm or has a different career ending injury?
Value isn’t money in the bank.
My home is valued at a good price, but if I dont pay the taxes on it I will lose it or be forced to sell it.
Why would he settle for a 1 year deal? This looks odd to me. You would think he could have got at least 3 years from some team.
A golden ring is why.
Dream on
His precious?
darinc – A one year deal suggests maybe they don’t trust their judgment or they have another farm player slotted to play there in a year. As the season plays out if the farm hand doesn’t progress they can extend him. Also, if Hernandez can’t handle the Dodger situation (fan fare, pressure or night life) then their commitment is minimal.
I can only hope Dave Roberts keeps working his postseason “magic”. That will help even out the playing field
If only o’l Dave could still lace up the spikes!
Oldguy58 – Loved the comment. I’m not alone in thinking he’s nearly as bad as Cora at setting line-ups and making in game decisions during the playoffs!!
What isn’t being reported here, but you will likely hear about it tomorrow, is that the Dodgers signed me not to play for them. That’s right, $10,000 up front, $100M deferred until 2032-2048.
Sorry Brew, JP Hoopstra actually already leaked it on his blog. No mention of your 10K bonus though. Liar!
Probably was my agent, who’s a golden retriever, who leaked it to JP Trumbo,
Bet you wish you would have given him those last few bites of your steak the other night now don’t ya?
Prediction:
Batting Average: 0.267
On-Base Percentage: 0.303
Home Runs: 30
Walks: 42
Hits on BIP: 118
Strikeouts: 170
Seems like quite the rich deal, especially for 1 year when his market value was $16.5M and low production.
If he ends up near an 800 ops w those 30 HR they’ll be happy. He struggled in seattle’s park as many do.
@Ma4170
Assuming he has 118 hits on ball in play (not HRs), using his average for his 8 seasons, he would have:
Singles: 67
Doubles: 25
Triples: 2
With 596 ABs, that would give him a 0.408 slugging percentage. OPS would be just over 0.700.
True, but I see him performing better than that in LA due to lineup and park. We’ll see. For one year, I don’t think it was much of a risk for LA to get some RH power.
His career OPS is a tick over 800, and his road OPS has historically been a bit higher. Even if he went back to 2022, it was an 807 OPS, 128 OPS+. They’ll happily take that.
@Ma4170
Yep, that’s why we watch. One can make all the predictions but ultimately, they have to play the games. Having said that, Fangraphs is projecting a 0.781 OPS and BR is predicting 0.790, so we’ll see how this plays out. I think he’s in for some regression but it would depend on how much. Since his 2021 season high (I’m not counting 2020 because it was short and all the stats look good), his OPS has declined so I don’t see him putting up 0.800 OPS this year.
Too true… so many teams have looked good from a name and even analytical perspective going into a season, only to either fall short of or exceed expectations. For some reason, I have a feeling this Dodger “all in” offseason will work for them, much to my chagrin.
Pretty low on the k rate.
@Simm
I think it’s pretty reasonable, given he had his first 200+ K season last year but on average, he has only been striking out about 120 per season for the 8 years he’s been playing. If I take away his early years and start from 2018 when he was playing full-time, as well as remove 2020 which was a short season, he’s averaged about 165Ks per season. Maybe that K amount goes up to 200 again this season but I think 170 is pretty reasonable, based on historical data.
This one breaking the camel’s back for some folks is making me lol. It isn’t THAT much in deferred money, and who cares about any of it? It isn’t against MLB rules to defer money if the team can guarantee it and their TV deal alone does. Remember none of this guarantees a championship anyway. Teo especially guarantees nothing.
You should be complaining more that your own teams aren’t spending enough instead of going bananas over one team “making a mockery of the rules” or “bucking the system” when honestly they aren’t.
Personally I’m more shocked the players go for this more than teams trying. Seems a bit risky, especially say with the amount Ohtani deferred, sheesh!
It may be for tax reasons. Ohtani is pulling in a lot of endorsements. He may be better off upping the contract amount and deferring payment until after he retires. The endorsements will be ending by then. I don’t believe this is solely to help the Dodgers sign more players.
Oh totally, but I gotta think there’s better ways to invest your retirement money. I could be wrong, but it isn’t like LAD are adding interest to that.
They upped the contract value considerably in return for the deferment.
He’s not needed but there’s nothing risky about a one year deal. If he can put up similar numbers to his 2021 season. It would be a steal.
James Outman, not Josh Outman
“Only $15MM of that salary will be paid to Hernandez this year, as the rest is deferred and will be paid out in installments from 2030-39. ”
K now I think the Dodgers are just doing deferrals in contracts for the lolz.
“Look, this is just our thing now, ok? SOME part of your contract has to be deferred.”
Teams are acting like the CBT may change or go away completely in the near future. The absurdly long contracts and deferments make more sense in that context.
Sure. It just seems odd to do a deferral this trivial when it doesn’t appear to keep the Dodgers below any CBT line.
But, money saved against the CBT is money saved, I guess. Like the old line about government spending. “A billion here and billion there and at some point you’re talking about real money”, or similar.
Phones in Dodger FO are ringing off the hooks with players outwardly looking for a piece o’ the deferral pie, biggest thing since Bitcoin.
The 8.5m deferred saved them paying the 8.5m this year and saved them about 2-3m in tax this year. So on all it saved them more then 10m in real money this year.
The issue I’m interested in concerning the deferred contracts the Dodgers keep pumping out, is why have they made the financial timeline 2030-2039 for parts of, or all of them.
What is going on with that franchise in the 2030’s that the rest of us is clearly unaware of????
Massive inflation?
Earthquake
Do you mean the one that finally puts the Los Angeles Basin back into the ocean, where it has supposed to be for several thousands of years?
Sounds like a plan.
Just reread the article..it speculates he joined “arguably the leagues most loaded lineup”…
Somewhere the Braves just told someone to hold thier beer..no offense but even adding ohtani and teo..minus jd ..the braves have them beat or matched everywhere
The Braves have a good 8 or 9 players. The Dodgers are 12 or 13 deep at this point
Huh. I guess Corey Seager and Clayton Kershaw and Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler and Kenley Jansen and Will Smith and Dustin May and Joc Pederson weren’t from their farm.
It must’ve been those high profile signings of Chris Taylor and Max Muncy and Justin Turner then.
Oh, it’s Mookie Betts. The player they acquired by trading players developed from their farm system to get.
The Dodgers bought Mookie Betts by taking on $48M of David Price’s contract. $48M was the main return to the Red Sox.
Suit – the red sox return of shedding price’s salary was made all the worse when he opted out of the 2020 season
GA: You are being absolutely ridiculous. There is absolutely no way the Red Sox could have foresaw Covid and people opting out of the baseball season. The point is: How many teams can pay $48M or even $32M (if you factor in Price’s lot out) for Betts?
Suit: I don’t think it’s ridiculous to say the meager return for Betts that was mostly the price salary became even less when price opted out. If you base your return on 3 years of salary relief, and the other team only has to pay two, it’s not crazy to say that the ither team all of a sudden is making out even better on their end of the deal by paying $32m instead of $48.
And further I never implied or suggested that should’ve been foreseeable, although, that has nothing to do with the prior point.
Price also wasn’t without any value what-so-ever, he put up era+ of 105 and 165 in the remaining 2 years he did pitch. It wasn’t a dead contract with no utility what so ever.
As to how many teams could’ve afforded $32m? To take on the cash outlay over 2 years and get Betts in return? Almost any of them. The real question is how many teams can take on 16m/yr for 2 seasons to get Betts and get a pitcher who will be 105% and 165% better than average in each year.
suit – FWIW he didn’t criticize the Sox for not foreseeing Covid, he just basically said “as it turns out, the Dodgers didn’t take on as much of Price’s salary as expected”.
Fact is, there were other ways to shed payroll and get under the threshold without trading Mookie. What they really should have done, since Bloom had no intention of extending Xander, was to trade him and attach Price. Would have gotten a better return or eat less of Price’s salary.
Personally I think the “freeing up payroll” explanation was just an excuse, they probably felt Mookie would decline or not be able to stay healthy. But of course they’d never say that publicly.
All – Seriously? I have a theory on the whole COVID thing with Mookie. I believe ownership worried about COVID since it hit Chinese companies in December of 2019 and January of 2020. They owned Chinese companies so they had to know about how it was impacting the Far East. My sister is a part time accountant for a Chinese herbs company and she got a lesser strain of COVID in JAN 2020 from one of many Chinese co-workers who went home for Christmas vacation to China.
If ownership had the information in December or January did they RUSH the deal with Mookie to complete it before COVID hit thinking the season might be impacted so trading him early made sense. The logical time to deal him would have been during the season or at the dead line especially since he had one of his best years. Instead, they prematurely move him in early February. It made no sense until COVID hit a month later. They misread the situation because COVID did create opt outs that allowed the payroll to dip below the Luxury Tax amount without trading Mookie and Price.
DD wanted to pay Mookie the $9MM more in his extension but ownership balked at it and fired DD. If DD had gotten his way, he could have offered Mookie $420MM in 12 and raised total payroll by $9MM and then non-tendered JBJ and lowered it by $11MM. With the Price opt out, Boston would have been under in 2020 AND they would have had Mookie for 11 more seasons at $36MM per year. I’ll take that deal over the Devers deal ANYTIME. The 2020 season with Mookie might have meant a playoff opportunity despite Sale being out but even if 2019 and 2020 were down years by 2021 Boston would have still had their core guys and would have been much more talented than the actual 2021 team which made the playoffs.
Boston had no payroll issues with Mookie and Price on the payroll once 2020 ended because other costs were dropping off the books. So to respond to your comment = Boston could have paid Betts $36MM for 12 years and been perfectly fine because other non DD costs were rolling off the books and the $36MM was ONLY a $9MM raise.
Ask yourself = Would you rather have the Butcher of Boston for 10 year at $30MM a year or Mookie at $36MM for 12 years? It’s a no brainer because Mookie at 39 will be better than Devers at 36. Why? Because Mookie stays fit, has quick hands, is a GREAT defender and a much much better base runner. Devers, if he follows in the footsteps of others before him (Pujols and Miggy) will drop off dramatically after age 32.
Also, Mookie Betts vs Devers with respect to OPS+
Age = Bett’s OPS+ and Devers’ OPS+
21 – 126 – 94
22 – 117 – 132
23 – 133 – 107
24 – 108 – 134
25 – 186 – 141
26 – 134 – 126
27 – 147
28 – 126
29 – 140
30 – 163
Mookie’s new contract started at age 27 and his OPS+ is 145
compared to his Boston OPS+ of 134. through age 26
Devers’ new contract starts at age 27 and his career OPS+ for Boston is 124 through age 26 which is 10 points lower than Mookie’s through the same age.
Add to Mookie his Gold Gloves and subtract from Devers his butchery on defense and the Mookie deal which Boston could have had for $36MM per year will be far more fulfilled than the Devers deal. It’s a travesty that ownership let this happen. TWO MASSIVE MISTAKES.
Fever & GA: I just don’t see a need to bash the return for Mookie. I think $48M is a very large return and I don’t think many teams would pay that. As for other ways to save money and whether or not Mookie could have been signed in Boston, we could debate that all day.
KD: I think Mookie was determined to test free agency based on his comments at the time. I also think he chickened out after the trade to the Dodgers due to Covid and the uncertainty about player salaries in the future due to the drop in revenue from no fans in ballparks.
Suit – the problem is, it wasn’t a straight 48m for Mookie!
You ignore Price pitched to an era+ of 105 coming off an entire year off sidelined, then an era+ of 165 the final year.
If you paid that 32m actual or 48m expected, however you want to envision it, that cost included getting a 105 and 165 era+ pitcher for free!!!
You’ve got to assign some value to that pitcher out of that 16m per year, or, are teams.in the habit of getting plus-performing players gratis, free of charge?
The Red Sox also got 4 years of Verdugo and 6 years of Wong in the Mookie trade. How does that value compare to the 114 total innings Price pitched for the Dodgers in the two years he was there? Let’s also remember the Dodgers were paying for one year of Mookie. This was about money and resetting the luxury tax for the Red Sox and they achieved their goal. I think the Red Sox did at least ok in the trade. If you happen to change my mind now, that’s ok too. I have moved beyond it. My original point was to correct the person who said the Dodgers farm system led to them getting Mookie when it was really about money for the Red Sox.
TF
“Devers, if he follows in the footsteps of others before him (Pujols and Miggy) will drop off dramatically after age 32.”
This you?
“Generalizations don’t work.”
When you understand what you’re talking about, you don’t need to tie yourself in such knots
It counted dude get over it. They took down the Padres Braves and Tays lol lol
Never thought he’d get a 4/80.
Soon theyre going to known as the Dodgers because theyre going to be dodging calls about contracts they handed out twenty years ago…
Fair contract. Nice potential to be better than 2023.
Honestly it’s gonna be an embarrassment if they don’t win big
Hernandez isn’t the type of hitter who wins playoff games
DreamGM, if the Dodgers take it all, will you make your check mark blue for a day?
Can the rest of the league get some decent players? This is ridiculous.
Pick a lane fellas, it cant be a bad signing and ruin baseball all at once!
This place (comments section only) has digressed so much in the last 7 years its almost unrecognizable for those who go back that far with this site
I have been visiting this site since its existence. Back in the Brian Robert’s days people around back then know what I am talking about.
This is bad for baseball dude.
Your beef should be with Manfred and baseball then not the LA Dodgers-
Deferments are not a new thing, although pretty new to the LAD compared to teams like the Nationals and Baltimore Orioles who have been deferring a buncha money to a bunch of different players for years now
If you want to have a valid discussion on a cap and a floor I’m all ears, I have actually been in favor for years and have had some great discussions/disagreements with good posters like Yankee Clipper many years ago on this topic .
That would be a baseball discussion tho not an anti Dodger one which doesn’t seem too prevalent anymore in here
These boards feel more like an emotional support group for men currently; creepy
Who said my beef was with the Dodgers?
I agree with most of what you just said.
How many positions do the Dodgers play?
I’m not making a joke about the deferrals I am just curious how they work. It seems like the Dodgers have a lot of money out for the future that doesn’t count towards the future aav. So in the future they still have the payroll and tax commitments, but they have separate payments owed to Ohtani, Freeman, Betts, and now Hernandez. Maybe that isn’t a lot to the Dodgers but it seems like they will be paying about $80 million a year for players not on the roster plus the actual future roster. It’s only a problem to people like us and not those with the money I guess.
SL
“I’m not making a joke about the deferrals I am just curious how they work. ”
Something like this
Using the Ohtani contract. Just like a house might sell for $325,000 but the buyer ends up paying like $600,000 total. Similar idea.
Then they figured out the payment schedule.
It could have been $46 million a year for 10 years.
Instead they agreed to $2 million for 10 years then $68 million for another 10.
But, because of interest, it works out to the same.
The Dodgers have to give Ohtani $2 million every year from 2024 to 2033. They also have to invest $44 million (the difference between $46 million and $2 million) each year to be able to pay Ohtani in 2034 to 2043.
For the CBT, the contract counts as $46 million. Because, simply, that’s what the team is paying every year for Ohtani.
The way to look at those future payments counting towards the CBT is they are already being counted because the Dodgers are paying $46 million a year for Ohtani. $2 million to him and $44 million to an investment account.
They did need to upgrade LF. Hernandez is a bit of an adventure in the OF, but his production should bounce back, in a loaded lineup and away from t-mobile. I’d expect they’ll add an impact starter, probably through trade.
Professional Baseball is officially dead.
BREAKING: Dodgers to sign: J. Urias, T. Bauer, Snell, and Monty.
2024 Rotation:
Kershaw
Monty
Snell
Bauer
Miller
Urias
**W.Buehler does not make the cut. Likely DFA. May to bullpen. 2025 adds Gonsolin and Ohtani to newly minted 8 man rotation.
*Yamamoto sits on bench for 1st year and learns the ways of MLB pitching. 9th man in rotation next season.
It will be called the “Big Blue Ballers” Rotation Rule of 2025.
Yep. With LaVar Ball campaigning for the rule change.
Oh tani! bauer may snell urias while fulmer monty on a yamshaw
Well said Brew! Now I am thinking of Brad Fulmer!
Well, at least the Dodgers spend their TV money on the product on the field. This is how it should be when a team has this much money coming in.
I am pretty sure the Dodgers and their nearly 8.5 billion dollar contract with Time Warner is most then most teams out there. I would hope they have some money to spend. But you are correct, teams should spend money/make smart trades to make the product on the field a winning team.
So who comes off the 40 man or is there also a trade in the works to make room for him
Unless a trade occurs I’d guess Gus Varland.
A lot of hungry teams out there people…No such thing as “buying a title.” It’s just not possible. Not when you gotta play 162-180 games. Anything can happen.
So glad Angels didn’t sign him.
Angels50, Why? I know they need pitching, but in all actuality, they need everything.
What the Angel’s need is a complete rebuild. Last season was a joke. They could have gotten a good haul for Ohtani, traded Trout while he still has value. Sometimes you need to go one step back to go two steps forward. You can’t fix everything in FA no matter how much money you have.
They’re not trading trout. It’s ridiculous that this keeps coming up. Not Trading Ohtani was bad knowing what we know now. Sure, that would have helped now, but people would have screamed and cried and rolled around if they had. It was a no win situation. Nobody saw $700mil coming.
The Angels are in a difficult situation now, just like 25 or so other teams. At least Moreno spends! He has in the past, disastrously, but still has a top payroll every year. The team will be better than people think. They need pieces of course, but can definitely still be a competitive club next year!
I don’t know why people are getting so bent over the Dodgers and their spending. One is an overpriced DH who will never be that pitcher again that he was. Another is a guy who never pitched an inning in the majors. Third guy is oftened injured. 6 season for the Rays and 360 innings. Hell I bet he doesn’t pitch 200 innings for the Dodgers. The guy they just signed is good. Not great with declining numbers that was not given a QO by his former team. Now I will say the Dodgers draft and developement is top 3 in league. All these moves still don’t make them better than the Braves.
Hard to disagree with 86% of that.
What is the 14%?
Mostly Shohei exceeding pitching expectations.
You think a pure power pitcher can come back and pitch 9 more years?
Just like with any long term deal, nobody is expecting him to go the distance and kick @ss for 9 years. He needs to be given the benefit of the doubt though.
I know he isn’t expected to be tops for the whole deal. The thing is this deal was made like that. Let’s take harpers deal. The Phillies are expecting mvp type level for 13 years. 6-7 yes and that is what they are paying and what they will get. The big difference is if Harper gives you 6-7 war for 6-7 years the deal is worth it. This deal is literally paying him 10 years for 8-10 war a year.
The list of pitchers who had 2 TJs and came back and pitched effectively is Nathan Eovaldi and his were a decade apart. 700 mil for a DH is 700mil for a DH. Say he never starts again 5-7 war for 6 years then 2-4 for last 5 years. 45 War is nearly 15mil per WAR.
There’s certainly Dodger fatigue this winter but I think what people are missing is that a lot of hot stove business is being held up because of Scott Boras.
The 4 best remaining free agents are all Boras clients plus some of the middle tier FAs (like Hoskins). If the numbers Heyman was putting out are accurate, there’s no wonder why any of Belli, Snell, Monty, or Chapman aren’t signed yet. All of them have major risk in signing them for the money they want and Boras has shown he’ll take these negotiations into spring training if needed.
And in turn, teams like the White Sox and Guardians aren’t moving guys like Cease & Bieber because they want to maximize return on a trade and would wait for suitors for FA pitchers to get desperate. Plus some of these middle tier free agents may want to wait for a big fish to sign so they use a contract to demand more money.
Plus, this doesn’t even consider Hader, who I think is holding up the market on guys like Hicks and Stephenson since they want him to set the benchmark.
For all the grief we’re giving the Dodgers, the one thing is all of their targets have been non-Boras clients. And they have an appealing team that guys are willing to sign with. I’m all for players getting their money but Boras (and his clients because they have final say) should have more accountability here. Hearing Monty thinks he deserves more money than Nola and Snell wants $200M+ guaranteed would make me hang up the phone really fast too.
No one wants to be the first to make a move right now. Hopefully once the first trade or Boras client signs, we’ll start to get the transaction flow everyone was expecting after the Ohtani signing.
I’m still not sold on the full time DH. I prefer giving weak fielders or guys who are dinged up a breather. It’s also great if you have an offense gifted catcher to keep him in the line up.
Can you imagine if the Angels could have had Trout DH 70 games a year last three years.
The Angels still wouldn’t have made the playoffs.
As a non-Dodger fan that was invited to watch a game there this past season, the real crime isn’t the deferrals. It’s that the fans have to watch games at that ancient pile of cement blocks instead of a state of the art stadium to house a top tier team. Yet after these signings they’ll have to pay top dollar for tickets, food, parking, etc. It’s a shame fans are an afterthought.
Dodger stadium is a historical landmark and should never be torn down.
State of the art stadium just so you can pay 25 dollars for a Dodger dog lol..
This is so true. Dodger stadium sounds cool and can be cool but it’s a dump compared to many other stadiums.
It’s James Outman. Not Josh Outman.
Dodgers seem to be very serious about putting those 2020 jokes behind them. Wish the best to Teo, bummer it didn’t work out here. Good clubhouse guy. Some of the worst plate appearances I’ve ever seen over and over again. Don’t be surprised when he only sees 3 pitches for a K or hits a home run. I’m still taking ATL over them in the NL, and there’s a few others I wouldn’t be surprised to see knock them out this year too.
The key to this is what isn’t being said. They needed a decent bat and someone willing to take a one year contract. To me it means they are planning to add Soto next season.
I know the Dodgers have money and I know they’re going all out but I do think this money will come back to bite them at some point. These deferred deals may not help them entirely and when they do pay the money, they may face financial issues somewhere down the line. I don’t think it’s going to be as easy as they make it out to be. It’s a risky move to pay a guy later and will hurt their payroll at some point. But a one year deal deferred? Sounds kinda stupid.
So much for the 3 year deal Teo wanted, whether that was even true or not.
All I can say about money is that the more and more that deals are made, the more that I don’t blame the Red Sox for being reasonable and cutting down the prices for contracts.
We’ve seen money get wasted over the years: Pablo Sandoval, Rusney Castillo, David Price, Chris Sale (even though I liked the guy). These deals ended up hurting us more than helping us. I know the Dodgers have money but I assume these “deferred” deals won’t help them down the line when signing free agents in 10 years. I can see them in a money crunch, possible lawsuits… maybe not, but you never know. It’s risky what they are doing.
And as for other teams… the Mets and Padres have been burned with contracts, Seattle looks like they are cutting payroll. It might seem great and dandy that the Dodgers, and some teams like Atlanta and Philly are paying up to a lesser extent, but there are consequences down the line.
I can’t blame the Red Sox and Giants entirely for going cheap. Inflation has hit hard as well. We used to be #2 in payroll behind Yankees, but in 2004, that was with a 128 million dollar payroll. We are almost triple that today. It’s ridiculous, and I think there are consequences down the line for every big deal made. I think the Dodgers are risky and I think Friedman is overrated and getting in over his head at the moment.
As a Dodger fan I hope Hernandez doesn’t pass the physical. Let some wanker team like the Twins, Jays, or Giants have this guy.
Oh I see you are not a Giants fan ha. FTD!
You really are starting to see a big shift in baseball culture. For example: one poster created a name around it. YankeesareDodgersEast. Careful Yankees. You might ACTUALLY be in danger of
Losing your title: evil empire.
LOL the second place Dodgers sign another jersey contract.
Scariest words in the English language to Dodgers fans: A r i z o n a D i a m o n d b a c k s.
They’re deferring everything because they know that place will be a ghost town by then.
hc
“They’re deferring everything because they know that place will be a ghost town by then.”
No
RE Une
“LOL the second place Dodgers sign another jersey contract.
Scariest words in the English language to Dodgers fans: A r i z o n a D i a m o n d b a c k s.”
This is what happens when your memory is that of what people think a goldfishes memory is
It used to be the Dodgers were afraid of the Giants. Where are they now?
Then it was the Padres. Are the Dodgers afraid of the Padres?
Now it’s the DBacks
These other teams come and go. The Dodgers keep outlasting them
With no DH spot open and Teoscar coming off a bad year at age 30-31. I would not be signing in a pitcher friendly division without longterm security.
Teoscar could be playing himself into a bench spot by May if he doesn’t bounce back.
This is actually getting ridiculous. Still not for a salary cap but SOMETHING. For Christ sakes take away all their draft picks this June.
WW
“This is actually getting ridiculous. Still not for a salary cap but SOMETHING. For Christ sakes take away all their draft picks this June.”
Why?
Are you a cheap owner who wants teams punished for giving money to players instead of putting it in their own pockets?
No I’m a fan of a massive market team that still has the ability to understand competitive parity. For every action there should be an equal reaction. Spend over a billion dollars, lose some draft picks the good ones in all the early rounds.
WW
“Spend over a billion dollars, lose some draft picks the good ones in all the early rounds.”
Is that in the CBA?
Are you a fan of implementing random punishments at the whim of what you do or don’t like?
“The Dodgers have continued their free agent spending spree, agreeing to one-year, $23.5MM deal with outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. Only $15MM of that salary will be paid to Hernandez this year, as the rest is deferred and will be paid out in installments from 2030-39. ”
Assuming a 5% discount rate that makes the present value of the deal about $19.2 million.
See how easy that was to start informing your readers, MLBTR?
Is 5% the risk free interest rate? Did you account properly for when the money is actually paid out relative to the signing of the contract?
Are you an ASA? A CERA? An FSA? An ACAS? An FCAS?
One of these?
Qualified 401(k) Administrator (QKA®)
Qualified 401(k) Consultant (QKC)
Qualified Pension Administrator (QPA)
Certified Pension Consultant (CPC)
Retirement Plan Fundamentals (RPF)
Defined Benefit Administration (DB-A)
American Society of Enrolled Actuaries.
Member, Society of Enrolled Actuaries (MSEA)
why
I did it as correctly as I could while lying in my bed listening to the waves outside
Do the calculation yourself and if you get something vastly different than me, let us know
Venn Diagram: people who are terribly upset about the unfairness in baseball and want money shared between rich and poor and people who are terribly upset about the unfairness in life and want money shared between the rich and poor
That’s not true and you know it. As the single handedly most bitter user on this site that you are, I’d strongly urge you to keep it baseball. Life isn’t fair, sports SHOULD be!
WW
“Life isn’t fair, sports SHOULD be!”
Counter point
Life should also be
And live is much more important than sports
Well that was remarkably dumb
Someone, please clarify whether the deferrals will be counted toward the CBT for the year the money is paid, right? 2030 for Ohtani for example.
And now, taking the field, your 2024 Los Angeles Store-Boughts!
Can we all agree that the deferred salary should be capped yearly? This is ridiculous. I know they are playing by the rules, but this one needs to be changed. Good for them for exploiting it.
How should it be capped?
I still like the Diamondbacks over the Dodgers. Dodgers should have been making more solid investments in their pitching staff vs having a staff with so much injury risk and question marks.
2024
Yamamoto
Glasnow
Buehler
Miller
May (after ASB)
Sheehan
Grove
Stone
2025
Yamamoto
Miller
May
Ohtani
Glasnow
Gonsolin
Grove
Stone
Sheehan
Knack
Ryan
Frasso
Pretty sure they’re gonna be ok. If they aren’t they’ve got more than plenty to trade to go get it.
We will see. I don’t like the Dodgers off season in all honesty. Ohtani is a pretty high risk signing but well worth it. But to go Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow is too volatile for my taste.
@drasco Unless you hate the Dodgers, there is nothing not to like about the Dodgers dream offseason. Seems like they added the best hitter and best pitcher available with the Japanese duo, plus Glasnow who is very good when healthy, plus Teoscar. What on earth would you have had them do instead? Other than maybe Hader, who it wouldn’t shock if they signed as well.
Ohtani is recovering from his second TJ surgery
Glasnow had TJ and is routinely banged up
Heyward spent 7 years being terrible in Chicago and they spent 9 million on him.
Yamamoto has never pitched an inning in the majors
Hernandez is coming off a bad year
They are moving Betts to second base
Buhler is coming off his second Tommy John’s.
Dustin May, Tommy John’s
Like I said, it’s a high risk offseason. I would have targeted more stability and not moved my gold glove outfielder to the infield.
Dropped – It’s good to be a fan and listing a long list of injury prone stars does suggest they might find 5 healthy starters in 2024 and 2025 but how many have won a World Series game?
FYI – The Texas Rangers can do that too.
deGrom
Scherzer
Eovaldi
Gray
Heaney
Mahle
Dunning
Up and coming SPs
Brock Porter
Jack Leiter
Owen White
Kumar Rocker
The difference is many of their pitchers know the pressure of the World Series because they don’t play to make the playoffs they play to win it all. Dodger pitchers won’t experience that for a long time. It’s 45 years and counting since 2020 was worse than a strike shortened season and should have an asterisk on it.
You did make a great point about trading. Since Friedman is able to manipulate the prospect rankings you’ll ALWAYS have plenty of top ranked players to trade!!! Guys like Jeter Downs, Verdugo. You know the type, big hype no performance. hahaha Yep, Friedman is never short of over-rated prospects. Hopefully, other GMs have figured out the Friedman farm system marketing hype and ignore the bogus rankings.
The other concern I would have about the Dodgers is that Ohtani and Yamamoto are used to pitching in a six man rotation, how does that look in the playoffs when most pitchers go on short rest in 5 and 7 game series?
Top 100 prospects always have to be taken with a grain of salt and if people do not think that there isn’t a big market bias in them, then they are not paying attention (especially MLB’s ranking).
Fire manfred today ! He’s lost control of the league
Still under contract til 2028.
$8.5 million of a 1 year contract deferred over 10 years. This is textbook trolling
It’s a nothing burger. Anyone, even teams like PT, could afford this. I’m not a fan of Teo, but this is not expensive.
It is awfully hard being a Mariner’s fan this off season.
Angels fan here…. This offseason has been hell
Come on now. The only people whining are Giants’ fans. Deferrals are as old as Bobby Bonilla. If you can avoid paying taxes today and grow your contract through a deferral, why. not do it? If you can’t live on a few million dollars to have a revenue stream down the road then you are mismanaging your money. Kudos to ballplayers who are deferring their contract earnings. As for the Dodgers and others, they will have the money to pay their contracts.
That was all Bobby and like 1M a year. Vinny Castilla is/was getting 500k/year from the Rockies, but that was his contract request. Not a team playing salary tax games.
Games? Anyone can play the “game.” It’s legal.
Technical note – Bonilla wasn’t a deferral it was a contract buy out.
Giants fan here – not disappointed in the Dodgers moves on a technical level – bummed because of our response and the likelihood of a Dodgers dynasty…
Exactly – our response has been disappointing.
pete – The Dodgers are inept at winning rings. They may be in the playoffs the next 20 years but rings? Over under is 1!!! SF’s over under in the next 20 years is 2!!!
You guys know how to win they don’t!!
474 comments on a Teo signing?
That said, I am shocked he signed so cheaply. Too early on a Monday for my abacus, but this looks like maybe $18.5M AAV, for one year? I was thinking maybe $54M/3.
Dodgers can’t win with their own players. They also can’t win with their own players because randos say when they do win, it didn’t count.
I didn’t realize I was replying to someone who can’t accept reality. Cheers.
Damn…. when I filled out the free agent projection sheet, I should have put the Dodgers for every player and could have won…..LOL
Way, Way, WAY too much!!!
Dodgers have put together a great team… but overall, I’ll still take the Braves
Dodgers have adopted the Federal Government model. Kick it a generation down the road. Somebody can deal with it later. Probably some Chinese Communist will buy the team.
Ohtani had it put in his contract that the Dodgers must field a competitive team. I hope he is satisfied, I will make bold prediction that they should be “competitive”.
It’s too bad so many comments are about the team and their financial management and not about the player joining the team. I am a big Teo fan. I am really happy to see him going to a team that has done a good job helping players get good results out of their raw abilities.
For all the Dodger hate because it’s seen as unfair that they’ve managed their resources to be in a position to do what they have this year, it’s still a collection of players that it’s difficult not to cheer for. Betts, Freeman, Ohtani, and now Teo. I can’t equate those particular faces as villains.
Except that Betts disappointed Red Sox fans, Freeman disappointed Braves fans and Ohtani disappointed the Angels fan. I remember when the Yankees used to harvest the best player from other teams and nobody liked that. The Red Sox have done it at times as well. It leaves a sour taste in your mouth when your team loses somebody to a bigger pocketbook. Revenue streams are not equal. There are differences beyond revenue that can compensate some, but in the end it feels like a fait accompli.
I don’t see Betts as having disappointed Red Sox fans. All of those guys gave a ton of value on their pre-arb and arb controlled contracts. If any team had justification for “overpaying” any of them, it would have been the teams that got their best years at suppressed salary rates. Instead, Betts and Teo were traded, Freeman was replaced before he made a decision on where he wanted to sign, and the Angels chose not to match the offer Ohtani had on the table when they were given the opportunity to. Did Glasnow disappoint Rays fans by signing an extension with them only for them to say “no thanks, we’d rather not pay you that”? I suppose Orix Buffaloes fans are disappointed that Yamamoto asked to be posted, but can they really blame him? In Teo’s case, it’s not even just about the money they are willing to give him because it doesn’t seem to be beyond market rate. Part of it is probably because of the work setting and the resources the Dodgers are able to provide players like him who are looking to bounce back a bit.
KamKid – What a bizarre take on one team hoarding talent because they have deep, deep pockets. As a Red Sox fan we have watched this since 1919 but it’s always been the Yankees.
Mookie is a tragedy. We got cheap years but LA got his best years because our ownership has frequent brain cramps. They win three unprecedented divisions and an ring so they fire the GM. They finally get a franchise home grown player in Mookie and they give him away. Pure stupidity.
The Dodgers didn’t steal Mookie as much as ownership pushed him out the door. Freeman was stolen. Ohtani was stolen. Hernandez sucks so he’s irrelevant. The Dodgers have 3 players who need to carry the weak other players in the field. They have an untested foreign pitcher and a bunch of young pitchers with potential. Their greatest pitcher isn’t great any more. The over-hyped pitcher will probably be hurt once again and who knows if Glasnow can throw 100 innings.
The Dodgers dynasty is much like everything Dodgers – It’s hype not reality. Freidman is great at owning the media and pretending he has more than he actually has. ATL and PHI are both better teams and they both have more players that know how to win. Losing JD Martinez will hurt LA just like giving up on Seager and Turner have hurt LA. For every good move Friedman makes he makes 2 bad ones but he sells the media on his brilliance but alas no legitimate rings for the brilliant GM. That says it all. Chris Young has more rings!!! He’s only been doing it a few years. That says everything about the Dodgers and the smoke and mirrors they use to give the illusion of greatness when they are really mediocre.
Which take is bizarre? My original comment that the actual players themselves are difficult to vilify for making choices in their best interests at the first or most prominent points in their careers where they had any leverage or choice in the matter? Or the part where those players like Mookie didn’t do anything to disappoint the fans of their teams. You seem to be suggesting that’s the case yourself. Wasn’t it the incumbent teams who disappointed the fans by trading away those players, or not matching offers when they were given the chance, or trading for a guy’s replacement before he went through the process of exploring his market and weighing his options?
The dodgers signing every free agent is so great for baseball.
translated as ‘my team isn’t spending so im gonna whine about teams that do.’
The part of the deferral conversation that gets a little lost is that the team must set aside a large part of the deferred money each year after the deferred money is earned. Now, that can go into a pot that can itself earn interest or be invested as long as it maintains the minimum level of funding. So, basically, using Ohtani as an example, of the 68 million deferred, the Dodgers will need to set aside whatever amount is required to, assuming a 5% interest rate or something, be 69 million in 11 years. I think someone calculated it and ithe Dodgers will have to find at least or about 300 million in hard dollars over the 10 years to meet the deferral requirements per the CBA.
Mark Walters and Guggenheim – this is what they do for a living! And I think they own Security Benefit which does annuities etc. They will probably back scratch Security Benefit to handle this!!!
An open question I have is whether the deferrals weigh into the debt ratio requirements the MLB has – which is one of the problems McCourt ran into and the Padres ran up against this year.
I really wish someone would do a definitive piece about all of this. Given that deferrals ha become the hottest topic of the off-season. Maybe an MLBTR writer????? (Hint).
I meant 68 million in 11 years – typo
The deferrals are funded from cash flow, so by definition they are not debt. McCourt got into trouble because he used the Dodgers as his personal ATM and ran up a lot of actual debt that could not be serviced from cash flow. This situation is called bankruptcy.
The actual cost of Ohtani to the Dodgers has already been calculated, at around $460M, with some minor variations plus or minus depending on the present value assumptions. I’ve kind of given up hope MLBTR will try to explain the not very subtle financial realities of deferrals since they’ve already written several times that the Dodgers have “spent” over a billion dollars this year. This isn’t accurate, no matter how you look at it.
The truth does not fit the false narrative that many media outlets and fans want to portray. There is a collaborative effort to discredit the Dodgers and paint them as the new Evil Empire or breaking rules.
The Dodgers still do not have the highest payroll and there have been dozens of examples of players and many teams who have used deferrals. Ohtani is the unicorn for a reason and only his contract is absurdly deferred and as mentioned the true value of his contract is about what most expected he should get paid straight up.
I don’t know about the narrative thing. I don’t imagine it’s some sort of conspiracy but I do know the top line number gets all the chatter because it’s big and flashy, and explaining why it really isn’t what it seems to be takes effort and gets a lot of people angry.
In fairness, MLBTR did run an article that explained a lot of this present value stuff, but the comments on that article were overwhelmingly negative and disbelieving. Since then all the articles I’ve seen talk about the Dodgers having “spent” over a billion dollars this offseason. So it feels like they’ve kind of thrown in the towel in getting the majority or readers to understand this topic and are now playing to the peanut gallery.
Mariners fan here. Two was great away from TMobile which is an unkind place to hitters (one of the toughest). Great teammate – wish him the best of luck in the future
Just say you don’t pay attention and move on.
I was talking to you about your initial comment, lol
Everybody should stop buying tickets, stop watching games and start watching football all year. Everybody has a chance in football. Dodgers world champs forever.
Not buying it.
LOL!
The 2023 Mets, Yankees and Padres said to say hello.
If Dodgers won the World Series, the trophy should be deferred to 2050.
Ski – LOVED the comment. 2050 is the over under for the Dodgers next ring. 1988 to ….. 2024? No way. 2050? Maybe.
The fun part about this Billion dollar off season set of mistakes is NY never likes to be upstaged so I’m waiting for a spending spree by the Yankees and then the domino effect of the Mets following suit. Thank goodness all three organizations have no clue how to win!!!
“Led by Ohtani’s $700MM deal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract, the Dodgers have now spent slightly under $1.067 billion on free agents alone this winter, to say nothing of the extra money taken on when L.A. acquired and then extended Glasnow”. Manfred and MLB are ruining baseball. How are teams like Colorado, Arizona and the Giants supposed to compete when a team spends over $1,067,000,000 in salaries (with most of the recipients over 30 years old!)? I”m not sure who I detest more – the Dodgers or the Yankees. MLB desperately needs a salary cap – and immediately.
Anything short of a WS ring would have to be considered a failure.
“MLB desperately needs a salary cap’ translated as “im jealous my team doesn’t spend’
600 comments and counting? You would think they signed Lou Gehrig. Not that big of a deal people…
Between this and Stroman begging the Yankees to sign him, Toronto fans crying quietly in the wings.
Considering the recent additions for the Dodgers, they must win the W.S. Anything less than that would be considered a failure due to price paid for such acquisitions.
yet your team couldn’t even do that!
Shelled – Four rings this century and all during full seasons!!!
I think that beats an asterisk ring.
Ain’t life grand?
Nice!!! :We are Happy for you Teo! A WS Ring is going to look good on your finger! Toronto misses and loves you,! All the Best in 2024`!
J Johna – Are we reading it here first? T Hernandez is going to be traded away from the Dodgers? How else would he find out how a ring looks on his finger? You seriously think 1 Billion is enough to make the Dodgers world champions? hahaha No way. Maybe 2 Billion but clearly 1 billion will only get them to the playoffs again!!! If you can’t win the big one you can’t win the big one. Ask Marino!!