The Twins have been candid all throughout the offseason about their plans to reduce player payroll this winter, and they’ve largely been successful in that endeavor. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $124MM in 2024, which would represent a $35MM haircut relative to last year’s payroll. Given that reality, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the club does not plan on engaging in a “salary-dump” trade this winter.
That’s surely heartening news for Twins fans, given rumors that swirled earlier this offseason indicating that the likes of second baseman Jorge Polanco, outfielder Max Kepler, and infielder Kyle Farmer were available in trade this winter. While Hayes left open the possibility of a trade coming together, he made clear that the club doesn’t plan on dealing those players in order to clear salary or add prospects. Instead, the Twins are angling to bring back major league talent in any deal as they look to build on a 2023 campaign that saw the club win its first playoff series in two decades.
Hayes also indicates that the club would prefer to move Polanco and/or Farmer rather than Kepler, adding that the “expectation” entering the offseason was that Minnesota would move two infielders from their big-league roster to lessen the club’s positional logjam. Setting aside Polanco and Farmer, the club employees Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Edouard Julien as likely regulars with the likes of Jose Miranda, Austin Martin, Nick Gordon, Willi Castro and top prospect Brooks Lee all likely to spend at least some time on the infield dirt as well next season. The same goes for Alex Kirilloff, who figures to factor heavily into the club’s first base mix but has plenty of experience in the outfield as well. By contrast, the club’s outfield mix is much less crowded, with Kepler, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, and Trevor Larnach making up the club’s primary options though Kirilloff, Martin, Gordon, and Castro all also have experience on the grass as well.
Despite the club’s apparent willingness to deal from its surplus, Hayes suggests that a deal doesn’t appear likely to come together anytime soon. While he notes that the club has identified potential trade partners and begun talks with them, many of those teams are still waiting to see how the rest of free agency plays out. That’s not necessarily a surprise given the number of positional free agents, ranging from Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman to Justin Turner and Whit Merrifield, are still available at this point in the winter.
If the club hopes to add big league talent in exchange for parting with an established veteran like Polanco or Farmer, it’s not hard to see what areas of the roster they could target. The departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda have left the club unusually thin in the starting rotation. While a quintet of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, and Louie Varland would be a viable group to carry into Opening Day, there’s plenty of room for improvement in that group and the club lacks much in the way of depth. Should any of the team’s starting five suffer an injury early in the season, the Twins currently figure to lean on an unproven arm like Brent Headrick or Simeon Woods-Richardson to take the ball every fifth day.
MLBTR took a look at possible trade partners for the Twins regarding Polanco last month, and many of those same teams could also benefit from the addition of Farmer as well. The Mariners, Cubs, Blue Jays, Giants, and Marlins were among the clubs mentioned who could stand to add another bat to their infield mix while also having the sort of MLB-ready pitching depth that the Twins could be interested in from which to deal. Speculatively speaking, a team like the Dodgers or Angels could also benefit from bolstering their infield depth given the uncertain shortstop situation in L.A. and the many injuries Anaheim’s infielders suffered last season. Both clubs also have controllable pitching options who could theoretically be moved this winter, such as Gavin Stone and Chase Silseth.
TrumboRedux
#Mauer4HOF
OIC2021
The Guardians are willing to trade, but Rob Manfred has tied their hands with the Diamond Sports/ Bally television fiasco. Just a shameful commissioner!!!
Unclemike1526
What exactly is stopping the Guardians from trading anybody? Ramirez is their highest paid player and he’s said he’s not going anywhere. It’s probably more their lofty expectations for guys like Bieber at 13 million and Clase at 20 million that’s holding things up. Don’t blame Manfred. It’s their own fault.
gravel
Sure. It’s Manfred’s fault that the Guardians signed a television contract that went bad.
Unclemike1526
Exactly. You sign a TV contract with a bunch of goons who own a Casino/Gambling business and it goes bad and it’s not their fault. Then who’s fault is it? Surely not Manfred’s. And why would Cleveland want to peddle Clase? Couldn’t be that his velocity has dropped just like Biebers? Clase is a Closer on a totally reasonable salary for 4 years that they want to trade all of the sudden? It’s like they’re trying to sell them as brand new Ferrari’s when the car carrier they were on had an accident and they fell off. So quit complaining about the deals they can’t make. It’s nobodies fault but your own.
slydevil
The sports gambling stocks have done great. Ballys/Diamond was Sinclair. Tv moguls and gambling weren’t really in the same lot.
OIC2021
Diamond owns the linear TV rights for 15 NBA teams, 11 NHL teams and 11 MLB teams. But it’s streaming rights that matter here. Diamond has the streaming rights for all of the NBA and NHL teams under its portfolio, but for only five MLB clubs — the Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers and Kansas City Royals.
OIC2021
Bieber, Clase, and Jose Ramirez are being traded to the Yankees along with their Diamond/Bally’s TV arrangement in exchange for the YES network. It will be an immediate infusion of $150 million to the Guardians while Yankee fans get immediate access to Guardian games
seamaholic 2
They’re thinking they’re gonna pull an inexpensive MLB SP for Polanco or Farmer?
ohyeadam
Right? They’re better off letting the young guns get their shot than giving innings to the type of SP they’d get in return for one year of Farmer. Unless they sweeten the pot with a prospect they’re not getting anyone better than current options. Polanco could be a difference maker for a 2B/offense needy team but still doesn’t have enough excess value to get a controllable starter imo
steelerbravenation
Still say a Polanco for Preister deal would benefit both clubs
User 4095290658
@steelerbravenation like a needle stuck on vinyl… lol.
martras
What “young guns” are you talking about? The cupboard is pretty bare from where I’m standing.
ohyeadam
Varland, SWR, Headrick, Canterino, Festa maybe Raya. Nothing too exciting
martras
I always love when somebody talks about deep, deep depth on the farm as if they’re ready to pitch at the MLB level.
Not one of those guys looked MLB projectable last year. Not one. Beyond that, Canterino hasn’t pitched significantly since 2019 and Raya hasn’t pitched 70 innings yet.
The only reason Varland is going to start is because the Twins have no depth to begin with.
Steve(shs22)
Festa is a top 100 prospect in some circles is a right handed Chris Sale in a lot of respects.
Raya is soo unproven has like as many innings as most rookie ball pitchers have. Only a top 300 guy in my mind but again is generally considered a top 175 prospect
Canternio is way down to a single inning reliever at this point stuff was once electric.
SwR is kohl Stewart esque BUT I believe could turn up to be Edwin Jackson like.
Headrick is def. An interesting south paw probably nothing more than a #5 starter but could be a valuable reliever
Varland is the real deal cats meow and is almost untouchable being a Minnesota kid.
You could get matt wallner or trevor larnach a lot easier than varland in a trade at this pt.
Steve(shs22)
Lopez
Duran
Varland
Ryan
Ober
Paddack
Jax
Festa
Soto
Canterino , Culpepper , Morris
SwR
Raya
Lewis
That’s about how I would rank the Twins ‘stable’ of arms in overall value.
Steve(shs22)
Pierson Ohl could be a come out of nowhere good story in’24
martras
@Steve(shs22) Your personal prospect chart is not used by anybody except you.
I feel like it would benefit you to spend some time checking a variety of other sources before you create your own ranks.
OilCanLloyd
Kikuchi
D-Nice
Manning (Detroit) for Polanco. Who says no? And if it’s Minnesota, who would they want. Although I’m interested to see what Keith can do at 2B. I’m not confident that Veirling can be productive at 3B.
Motor City Beach Bum
Polanco and Brooks Lee for Manning, Flores and Jung. Tigers will still win the Division but at least it will make it more interesting.
OIC2021
Bieber for Royce Freeman
vtadave
A starting pitcher for a running back? Bold move Cotton.
OIC2021
Call the Beekeeper
BaseBall Bob
Lee isn’t going anywhere.
crise
There are starting pitchers out there that Lee would be traded for, but they are unlikely to be traded at all because they are young, with controllable years and expected to provide a ton of value. “Luzardo will never be traded, unless they could get a young stud SS for him”, for example.
D-Nice
I just proposed Manning for Polanco. Not sure whether Minnesota would deal with Detroit being their main competition though.
Motor City Beach Bum
They did the the Fulmer for Gipson-Ling deal not so long ago.
Steve(shs22)
Sawyer Gipson long looks solid doesn’t He ?
That’s another terrible trade in the Falvine era
Ma4170
I keep thinking Belt would be a nice one year fit for them that shouldnt cost much in FA.
rememberthecoop
Not interested. Farmer is meh & Polanco had one big power year in 2021. Otherwise, not much to like between those two.
Dogbone
A team looking for a 2B could do a lot worse than Polanco. Last year he hit 14 HRs in 302 ABs. And his OPS was right around his career OPS of .780. His BB rate was over 10%.
He isn’t an option for 3B, otherwise he’d be a nice insurance addition for the situation the Cubs are beginning the season with, at 3B.
Twins likely would be happy to pick up Drew Smyly for him.
Ma4170
When he’s healthy he’s generally around a 120 WRC+. He definitely has value, its the staying healthy part that’s been a struggle the past two years.
Seamaholic
He has almost no 3B experience and is a poor fielder generally.
MPrck
It’s the Central, and they won by 9 games last year. No reason to increase payroll that’s for sure. Sure I like how Detroit played in the second half, but they still have to show they can do that for a whole season. No sense in anyone spending a fortune in the division, none whatsoever.
OIC2021
Dream on
Indians healthy starting pitching guarantees them 1st
darinc
Neither of the 3 players would bring back MLB talent alone. If the Twins want a SP they would have to attach prospects with any of them. Which is not a big deal,
Kelland
Seam, the “they” you are referencing certainly isn’t the Twins but the author floating hypotheses.
trog
Padres fit as a trade partner. They have holes in the OF, 1B and 3B since Machado will be DHing for the first part of the season.
martras
I don’t know if Falvey is trying to create leverage or something, but Polanco, Farmer and Kepler are the kinds of guys you trade for prospects in organization 5-20 range or super high ceiling lottery tickets.
Polanco should be the most valuable of the 3. A solid 3 WAR player with a little wiggle room above that, he’s battled ankle issues in recent seasons but didn’t undergo any procedures this past offseason and appears to be healthy. At $12MM with an additional team option for $12MM in 2025, he should be able to bring back a back end rotation arm with a couple years of control, but the Twins have a whole bunch of back end arms already with Paddack, Ryan, Ober and Varland all having a ceiling of maybe a 3.75 xFIP. So a lot more value in grabbing high upside MiLB prospects since the Twins’ pitching system is hot garbage in the Sun right now.
Farmer has catching experience. Can’t fathom why the Twins picked up his contract at this point. He’s not going to get playing time over many of the Twins’ other infielders and there’s a massive logjam as noted.
Depth charts in the infield are beyond deep.
1B – Kirilloff, Miranda, Julien, Farmer, Prato
2B – Polanco, Gordon, Julien, Farmer, Castro, Lewis, Martin, Prato, Lee
SS – Correa, Lewis, Farmer, Castro, Gordon, Polanco, Prato, Lee
3B – Lewis, Castro, Farmer, Miranda, Polanco, Gordon, Prato, Lee
Not trading Farmer and Polanco is down right incompetent.
The outfield situation has a lot less defined depth to it so after the current clear starters, it’s just a guess. Falvey was clear he no longer thinks of Kirilloff as a potential outfielder for some reason that remains a mystery, but it’s Falvey’s M.O. to make sure he destroys trade value for his players soooo
LF – Wallner, Gordon, Castro, Larnach, Prato
CF – Buxton, Castro, Gordon
RF – Kepler, Wallner, Gordon, Castro, Larnach, Prato
crise
They picked up Farmer because Correa has a bum ankle and may blow up at any time, because he hits lefties and the rest of the team are lefty bats, and because he can also cover Lewis at 3b and Kirilloff at 1b if/when more injuries wipe out those guys.
The Twins learned a lot about depth in the bitter 2022 season and they won’t be making those same mistakes again.
RichReese
The Twins acquired Farmer prior to the (second) signing of Correa and prior to knowing they had a shot at signing Correa.
crise
Yeah but I think the other guy was asking why they picked up the option on his contract this winter. And that’s because he’s still valuable to the Twins.
Moneyballer
You need 2 to tango in a trade. Just because you have the depth doesn’t mean a deal will surface for that depth.
LambchoP
I think Polanco and a top prospect could net a decent MLB pitcher…We sure could use it. If Lopez goes down at any time our rotations in trouble…
Seamaholic
“and a top prospect” doing a lot of work there! Of course it would. Depending on which prospect!
martras
Agreed. Polanco and (somebody worth 3x more than Polanco on their own) could land a pitcher.
Steve(shs22)
You’re awfully down on Polanco… Just because the current t free agent crop has Next to nobody at 2b?
martras
@Steve(shs22) I think you’re missing the point. A top prospect could land a pitcher on their own so treating a top prospect as a toss in makes no sense.
Polanco + a top prospect would definitely be able to land a pitcher.
Dodgerfan34
Thought the ballpark would bring in additional revenues in order to invest in the product on the field?
ShoelessJoeHallofFame
*employs, not employees
LambchoP
Give Miami Polanco and Lee for Luzardo or Garrit, whatever his name is…
just_breathe
If the Twins make any trade, do you think they will at least try to bundle Vazquez into the deal somehow? They want to offload that salary, though since he performed poorly last year, understandably no one wants him. Only other option to move him might be to give him playing time and hope he plays himself into demand.
Moneyballer
He wasn’t that bad. His defense was good the bat not so much. He didn’t get enough at bats though, as jeffers was the preferred stick. Jeffers needs him, he’s unable to be a fulltime backstop and everyone knows it.
Moneyballer
Angels won’t deal, they could care less about winning or improving their roster. It’s an organizational dump heap!