Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker addressed the state of his extension talks with the club this week, discussing the matter with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. He said the two sides have had some talks but “not a hard offer or anything like that.” The Excel Sports Management client added that he’s open to those discussions, “whether it happens now or a little later.”
Tucker, 27, has established himself as one of the better all-around contributors in the game. Over the past three seasons, he’s hit 89 home runs and swiped 69 bases. Only 19 players in the league had more homers in that stretch and none of those had more steals than Tucker. His .278/.353/.517 batting line in that time has led to a wRC+ of 138, 16th among qualified hitters in that span. He’s also received solid grades for his glovework in right field.
Astros general manager Dana Brown has been candid about his desire to sign extensions with the club’s players ever since getting the job last year. Around the time of those statements, they locked up Cristian Javier with a five-year, $64MM deal. More recently, they got a new deal done with José Altuve, a five-year, $125MM pact.
There’s still time to get something done with Tucker, as he’s under club control through the end of the 2025 season. However, his earning power will only increase as he moves closer to that date. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows just two position players with between four and five years of service time have received nine-figure extensions since the start of 2015. Bryan Reynolds got exactly $100MM from the Pirates while Matt Olson got $168MM from Atlanta.
When looking at players between five and six years of service time, it clearly takes a lot more money to keep them from getting to the open market. Byron Buxton got $100MM guaranteed but with loads of extensions. Xander Bogaerts got $120MM from the Red Sox in 2019, which was generally seen a team-friendly deal. Nolan Arenado got $234MM from the Rockies while each of Rafael Devers and Francisco Lindor got over $300MM, landing at $313.5MM and $341MM, respectively.
If the Astros are motivated to get a deal done, it would be in their interest to do it sooner rather than later. Barring an unexpected swoon in performance or an injury-marred campaign in 2024, Tucker’s price will only rise over the next year or two. Based on Tucker’s framing of the current state of affairs, it doesn’t seem like anything is close to being completed.
They also wanted to get something done around this time last year but reportedly faced notable gaps in those talks and didn’t seal the deal. Tucker went on to have another great year and bumped his 2024 salary to $12MM, avoiding arbitration last month. Brown recently indicated that the club will make Tucker an offer at some point, but time will tell if it will be enough to get his signature on the dotted line.
The Astros are in uncharted waters when it comes to their finances. Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists their highest Opening Day payroll as $188MM in 2021. This year, Roster Resource has them way up at $240MM. Their competitive balance tax figure is also high for them, currently at $255MM, well beyond the base threshold of $237MM. They have never paid the tax before, having only gone over in 2020 when the taxes were waived during the shortened season.
Going forward, there’s a bit more room but the slate isn’t exactly clean. They already have over $100MM committed to 2025, 2026 and 2027, thanks to big contracts for Altuve, Javier, Yordan Álvarez and Josh Hader. Next year’s budget is at $117MM but arbitration raises for Tucker and Framber Valdez could add around $40MM to that, plus raises for players like Chas McCormick, Jeremy Peña and others. Ryan Pressly also has a $14MM option that vests if he makes 50 appearances this year.
The next two years will see players like Tucker, Valdez, Pressly, Alex Bregman and Justin Verlander reach the end of their contracts. Those expiring deals may open up some spending room for the club but will also require them to produce replacements for those key players, which may involve signing free agents. How they look to navigate that double-edged sword should have a notable impact on the future of the club.
Kyle Tucker wants to hit free agency at the latest at 31 years old, so that leaves a 4 year window, 2 arb and 2 FA years. I don’t see any reason why he would sign a longer contract, unless it is a massive 10 year 250+ million. The Astros on the other hand do not want to sign him to a 4 year contract where they will end up paying a premium on his 2 arb years to get a small discount on his 2 FA years and they’re not going to commit a huge 10 year deal either.
I don’t see how they get an extension done.
Unlike Altuve, I don’t think Tucker is going to give any discounts either. I don’t blame him, the pace he’s on, he’s in for a nice payday as a free agent.
“Unlike Altuve I dont think”…..In what world is paying a 33 yr old player 25M per year for 5 years a “discount”?…No one but Houston is paying an older player 5 yrs at 25M per year. To me it looks like Houston paid a hefty PREMIUM to hold onto a popular signature player. No way Altuve gets this deal on the open market because nobody(but Houston)is paying him thru age 38.
Turner, Judge, and Machado all signed long term contracts which pay more than $25MM per year after their 30th birthday. I’m sure there are more but those are just recent ones off the top of my head.
“Turner, Judge and Machado”..30 isn’t 33, bro. I said 33. There’s quite a big difference in the marketplace. Name a position player who EVER got a 5 yr HUGE payday AFTER 33?…I doubt you can and if so it’ll only be 1 or 2 guys in history. The guys you named were like 28 or 29(Judge maybe 30) yrs old when they signed, a MUCH more favorable negotiating position than Altuve. Altuve got MORE than top of market money( he’s a fan favorite), hardly a “discount”.
mlb fan,
All true, but Boras sees this as a discount, including Altuve’s initial extension. Oh I agree, only Houston would pay that kind of money.
No doubt Scott Boras, in his mind, believes he gave the Astros a “good will” discount. But Scott never met a player he didn’t think was “generational” or “transformative”.
I think it’s more like 12 years. If you can get him 12 years at 300 mil- why not ?? Seems as safe as an investment in a player to me
He is going to sign for a lot more years than 4.
Extend Tucker, trade Bregman, sign Chapman?
Tigers on line 1!
Jung and a couple good minor league pitchers back the other way.
Would rather have prime Greg Maddux.
Harper contract
He’s not on the open market yet. In this market if a team can save some dough and give a couple extra years – may be a nice middle for a deal to be struck
That Hader deal is already aging poorly.
Dana Brown literally said a few days prior to the signing of Hader when one of their bullpen arms got hurt, I forget my apologies, that they were good, nothing to see here. And then boom! Hader gets signed negating all that rhetoric about not doing a panic move haha!
I’m not judging, just saying that it’s tellng when teams pull panic moves.
7 straight ALCS. 4 World Series. 2 titles. And going nowhere. Accusing the Astros of panic moves is beyond strange. This organization is the best run in MLB and its because the owner is a former college pitcher who demands excellence and accountability from the GM down to the food workers and parking attendants. They are a machine.
I don’t see the Astros spending 95M , just because an above average, decent reliever got hurt. It probably takes at least a week to get approval(From Crane)to spend that much so If they got Hader it’s probably because they liked him and had already been considering him. I can’t even remember the injured Houston relievers name, but it certainly was not Mariano Rivera.
It was Graveman who got injured. And then about a week later they sign Hader. I believe this was Crane’s decision all the way.
“Crane’s decision all the way”…Of course. Everything in H-town will always be Crane. Personally I think he will come to regret this one. Some good relievers(Wandy Rodriguez, Adam Ottavino etc…etc)were getting only $4-5M/yr on 1 year deals. Crane could have got more overall talent(and depth) for half of what he paid Hader.
Tucker is overrated. His stats get juiced because the people ahead of him in the order get pitched around to because they are better. Houston is a complete bam box and if he leaves for an average hitting stadium he will be severely overpaid and overmatched without a ton of protection in the lineup.
Minute maid park is a league average park. The crawford boxes offset a very spacious left center to right center field. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about
As for overrated, he has accumulated 18.3 b-war before his age 27 season. Hes a 5 tool player who gets better every year.
@ Astros2017&22Champs
100% correct
Tucker loses more HR than he gains at MMP. Lots of 400′ outs to center, and close to 0 Crawford Box cheapies.
I am a recovering “pretending like Tucker is over rated addict” lol
He still has had to be capable of delivering those outcome’s for the team when given the opportunity.
If your boss comes to you and says you produce great but you’re overrated and a product of the environment you work in, does that make you any less valuable to your co-workers or employer in the grand scheme of results/outcomes delivered?
The business strategy question would be – Are the Astros going to find someone that can as closely “guarantee” ability to produce while costing less than or equal to a Tucker extension?
MVJ
“does that make you any less valuable to your co-workers or employer in the grand scheme of results/outcomes delivered?”
Kind of, yes
It means you’re easy to replace. Which is there opposite of valuable
filihok –
Just because an employer thinks someone’s replaceable doesn’t mean they replace them.
They know Tucker is good for 25+ hrs and roughly successful at the plate 1/3 of the time (success being a hit, bb, sac, advancing a runner, etc). He can competently field his position. He fits the team chemistry, and has a proven performance in their environment – regardless of how good the opportunity was due to teammates.
Are the Astros finding equal or better for cheaper or the same price? Maybe, but they would be speculating the new guys skills transfer without issue, hope of a chemistry fit, can be sustained, etc. That seems like unneeded risk for a contender. There’s also the market inflation factor.
Justin Turner, at 39 just got 1/$13M to DH for Blue Jays…2023: 558 ABs, 154 hits, 23 hrs, .276, 2.1 War
Tuckers 2023: 574 AB, 164 hits, 29 hrs, .284, 5.4 War…12 yrs younger and an OF.
I know those are basic stats, but I’m referencing the production against the aav cost not the player comparison. If they can sign Tuckers production for 5-6 yrs $20-22M aav range they should do it.
MVj
“Just because an employer thinks someone’s replaceable doesn’t mean they replace them”
Agreed
It usually needs to be a clear upgrade. Either in performance or cost.
I hope you’re not suggesting that Turner and Tucker are equivalent players. The WAR difference should tip you off that they are not
fil-
That’s my point when I said production vs aav cost. Tucker is getting paid $12M in arb and is a better player.
Turner got $13M because he was on the free market. If Tucker was a free market player he would command more than $13M for his production. So if the Astros want to replace him, they’ll need to hope they find a younger player that can replicate or exceed Tucker (younger being cheaper pre arb/arb prices). Or, they can go to the free market and pay $20M for a player of his production level and hope the guy translate well into their environment.
By the time Tucker hits the free market in 2 yrs, and assuming he sustains his production, the market will inflate past $20M aav. Trevor Story got $23.33 aav 2 yrs ago for lower production. Mitch Haniger $14.5 aav while hurt. I’d think in 2 yrs, Tuckers free market negotiations start at $22M and go up from there.
MVj
Not sure what Turner had to do with it, but ok.
Tucker is probably worth $40 million plus on the open market for one year.
I see no reason to think that Misty is correct that Tucker is a product of the system or stadium or whatever. He’s an elite player and not easily replaceable
fil –
I think we find ourselves making the same point. I used Turners $13M as a starting reference to show that in free market settings even 39 yr old DHs get $13M/yr now, so a 29 yr(when he hits FA) OF that is good for 25+ hrs and 4+ war will command waaay more. The Astros can pay him, or someone else, but to get his production level it’ll cost them $20M+. It seems like a no brainer to just pay Tucker now, and try to net save $10M+ in the long run.
MVJ
I started out trying to make the point that “valuable” and “replaceable” are basically opposites
Then I was trying to understand your point
Yes, Tucker would cost a lot to replace – likely north of $25 million per year
Because his skills are not easily replaced
fil-
For someone that I’ve seen labeled as irrational by other commenters in other threads, I find you very rational when we interact. Keep challenging my comments man, iron sharpens iron.
Tucker’s a 5 WAR 27 year old two years from FA.
Look at all the players of that stripe in the last couple of years getting $300m deals over a decade. He’s better than Devers (11/331m) but older. He’s as good a Bogaerts (11/280m), and a year younger in FA.
Stretching a deal to 12/300m would seem like a favor to the Astros, but giving something as insurance against injury or dropoff over the next 2 years and building in deferrals where the last year of the deal in 2024 money might be as little as $12m. I’m sure the Astros don’t want to pay him even that much over 12 years, but they should seriously consider it. He’s a terrific player.
Plant High School
MLBTR
This site is so damn weird. Or inconsistent. Or…
“Tucker, 27, has established himself as one of the better all-around contributors in the game. Over the past three seasons, he’s hit 89 home runs and swiped 69 bases. Only 19 players in the league had more homers in that stretch and none of those had more steals than Tucker. His .278/.353/.517 batting line in that time has led to a wRC+ of 138, 16th among qualified hitters in that span. He’s also received solid grades for his glovework in right field.”
14th in fWAR over the last 4 seasons.
See how easy that was?
I love Tucker, but it’s fine to let him walk if they can’t find a deal that works for both sides. The Astros are loaded with OF prospects. None are projected to be as good as Tucker, but they ought to be able to get the production they need from a group of players without the risk of a mega deal.
I’d rather see that money used on other players.
Sidenote: the Astros love paying for relievers and, my opinion for whatever it’s worth, is that RP can be signed for fewer years. Hader’s 5 years isn’t as scary a risk as 12 years for a hitter.