The end of February is now less than a week away and Spring Training games have begun, yet plenty of significant free agents remain unsigned. As long as they linger on the open market, they will continue to be the subject of discussion. That’s particularly true of the “Boras Four,” which is formed by Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman, all of whom are represented by the Boras Corporation.
The Red Sox have been loosely tied to Montgomery throughout the offseason and that connection was addressed this morning by both Rod Bradford of WEEI and Sean McAdam of MassLive. Bradford reports that the club appears to prefer Montgomery to other available free agents but it is still waiting for the price to come down. McAdam frames it similarly, noting that the club has stayed in contact with Scott Boras “as a matter of course.” McAdam also suggests the Sox could fit Montgomery into their budget if his asking price drops, but he also points out that several other clubs would jump into the fray at that point. At any rate, it seems to be a moot point for now since McAdam relays that the asking price has not dropped.
The fit between the two sides is a sensible one in some ways. Montgomery’s wife is doing a residency at a Boston hospital and there would surely be some appeal to the convenience of working in the same city for much of the year. But beyond that, the club has been searching for starting pitching all winter and hasn’t really found it. They did sign Lucas Giolito but also traded away Chris Sale, leaving them roughly where they started. One might argue that Giolito is an upgrade on Sale but that substitution doesn’t address the overall depth.
The Red Sox have also been quieter than some other traditional big spenders. While clubs like the Yankees and Dodgers are well beyond the fourth and final luxury tax tier, the Sox aren’t even above the lowest threshold of $237MM. Boston’s competitive balance tax figure is at $202MM, per Roster Resource, which gives them plenty of room to theoretically make a big splash and still avoid the tax. Some other clubs like the Padres, Rangers, Mariners and Twins seem to be operating with diminished spending capacity this winter due to uncertainty in their TV revenue situations.
All that could perhaps put the Red Sox in a position to strike, but there are also reasons to suspect it won’t happen. The club’s president Sam Kennedy was recently present as Spring Training facilities and spoke to the media, with Christopher Smith of MassLive relaying some video. “We have set parameters for him,” Kennedy said in response to a question about whether chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has a hard budget. “He’s operating under those parameters.” He declined to elaborate with specifics.
All teams have budgets but there can sometimes be a point where opportunities push a club to alter their plans. Both the club and Boras appear to be holding their positions for now and time will tell whether one side blinks or if the staredown leads to Montgomery signing elsewhere.
It’s possible something will happen to get things moving, but the Sox might proceed into the season with their current rotation mix. Last month, Breslow said the rotation consists of Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta. That would leave Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Josh Winckowski as options for the final spot.
Giolito has plenty of success in his career but his earned run average has finished just below 5.00 in each of the past two seasons. Bello and Crawford each have just over 200 major league innings under their belts. Pivetta’s 2023 finished strong but he was bumped to the bullpen for a time due to some shaky results. The latter three worked both as starters and relievers in their careers and are still trying to establish themselves as legitimate rotation options.
There’s plenty of uncertainty in that mix and an addition would make sense if the Sox are willing to add some money to the payroll. In addition to Snell and Montgomery, the free agent market still features Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, Rich Hill, Zack Greinke and others. In addition to the Sox, Montgomery has received reported interest from clubs like the Angels and Giants, with other clubs making logical sense. MLBTR predicted him for a six-year, $150MM deal coming into the winter but his continued stay in free agency suggests that he hasn’t had offers in that vicinity and the chances of him getting there will likely drop as time goes on.
Would rather have prime Randy Johnson.
If you’re going to hire a bird beater, you might as well just sign Bauer.
Whatever team has the common sense, decency and courage to sign Trevor and add him to their #1 spot in their rotation will immediately be thrust into contention.
Trevor is waiting.
I fully support the Orioles signing Trevor Bauer
And people could match around my house
Provided I get to March around too
owensboro
saying “common sense and decency” in the same sentence as ¨sign trevor bauer” is absolutely wild
“Whatever team has the common”…Trevor, I thought we already talked about this. You pay me good money to try to get you a big League contract and then you undermine me with these “anonymous posts when everyone already knows it’s you. Do us both a favor and get off the internet and we’ll talk more about this later.
O’s need another arm. Whether it’s Monty or Bauer. Since the O’s want to spend zero dollars it should be Bauer. Go out and win.
God I wish this site allowed gifs, so many come to mind right now…
Or form a thought-out and thorough argument rather than resorting to gifs anyone can find and post.
@Owensboro,
A word of caution when using the term ’thrust’ while defending Trevor Bauer.
Owensboro: So, unfortunately, are the protesters.
The astros should sign Bauer. They are already universally hated. Might as well embrace the villain role.
Now, ‘embrace’ is a much better term. Nicely done.
Agreed. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but if the Red Sox sign Bauer, I’m done with them. Everything in the trash. Thought he was vile before the suspension, he’s just a far worse person than I imagined.
Not if he “embraced” her throat, lol.
You’ll still be a fan… it’s okay to like everything/everyone about/on the team.
You might really like the feeling of winning. Give it a shot.
I meant to say not like… oops.
You don’t speak for any other Orioles fans.
There’s no need to argue Trevor Bauer anymore. I’d rather eyeroll and lol at this point.
Or, you can’t.
You’re 0 for 2 with 2 Ks.
What about forgiveness?
It’s alright I got it going on in real life every time I see his name mentioned by all y’all Bauerbros.
Agreed, but I believe the correct spelling is, “… by all yous Bauerbros.”
The suspension where MLB was too lazy or incompetent to uncover that it was a con job? MLB has had it out for him since he made them look stupid over allowing sticky stuff.
I’m sure the Red Sox will miss you!!
Isn’t about Bauerbros it’s about picking and choosing morality. Draw a line with Bauer, start banning other players with contracts.
You’re 0-3. Less emotion, more thought.
Matt Araiza, the punter who supposedly had non concentual sex is now playing for the Chiefs.
I guess standards only apply in MLB whether guilty or not. Sign Trevor!!!
Wasn’t that punter story fraudulent?
saying “common sense and decency” in the same sentence as ¨sign trevor bauer” is absolutely wild
=============================
MLB got conned by this woman and should be embarrassed by their timidity. Honoring that shakedown artist does a disservice to every woman that has ever been assaulted.
if the Red Sox sign Bauer, I’m done with them
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I will applaud anyone that signs him. If he has done something wrong, let me know what it is. Let MLB investigate it.
Right now, you want to ruin someone’s life on the word of a grifter.
Isn’t about Bauerbros it’s about picking and choosing morality.
=========================
I prefer my version of morality where we don’t ruin someone’s life on the word of someone who has been shown to have lied about EVERYTHING.
After all the evidence, it seems almost impossible that someone would take her word for this.
Wasn’t that punter story fraudulent?
=======================
Wasn’t the Bauer story almost 100% certainly fraudulent?
Lolz you’d be fired as an ump in a moment with that strike zone, bud.
I don’t think “decency” is a word that applies to Trevor.
Agreed. Bauer is very et good but even if the accusations are false, he is still a distraction and cant seem to put his ego aside when needed
Syncophancy is ugly in you. Drop the copypasta
We agree Joe. The people who want Bauer gone should want Aroldis gone, among other people.
Why stop there? Fire any coach who’s had a DUI or any player who’s been arrested. What’s worse, Bauer’s “incident” or Reese McGuire’s “incident”? Once you set a precedent we can’t pick and choose.
Well I am hoping
No no no lol
Hahaha Well you never know who posts
Lol the astros are in business to make money if they sign bauer the only thing theyd be “embracing” is losing it…these teams have no moral compass dont you think if any of them saw serious financial upside to compete with the obvious blowback hed be signed?
Well said. Grace and mercy!
In jail ?
3 “grifters”
Bauer is a head case but should be able to pitch in MLB
where are you seeing that this person lied about everything? Literally no reputable source has claimed the woman in this case was a grifter or liar. The DA declining to prosecute and then both parties settling is not an admission that one party or the other lied.
Oh, this is about your morality thinking.
I’ll agree to that. You don’t think.
Your mom should sign Bauer.
but as a business they have to consider any permanent negative affects on the teams reputation and potential income. The calculus is simple, which team’s fanbase is most likely to admire scumbag idiots?
We don’t know everything that was uncovered by MLB and then presented in front of an arbitrator, and Mr. Bauer. We do know that Mr Bauer has not been screaming how unfair it was, and has not taken additional legal action. I suspect there is an agreement that MLB will not make public their findings, so long as he takes no action. Mr. Bauer doesn’t want that report to go public.
It fair to assume that the one paying in the settlement did something that they want to go away.
What Roberto Osuna did was much worse than what Trevor Bauer did and the Astros had no issues trading for and also making light of the situation.
People who call Bauer a monster for engaging in rough intercourse must live under a rock.
Stymeedone Bauer is not screaming because he wants to pitch in MLB and is conducting himself in the best manner possible to return to a major league team.
Nope, but carry on with your nonsense. I am a lifelong fan, but I would be done. I can do what I want, and not judge you for what you want. Enjoy if they sign him, and you’re okay with it. How do you know I’m picking and choosing? I can. take his word and what he’s admitted to, and his lifetime of behavior and say no thanks.
its_happening14 hours ago
Once you set a precedent we can’t pick and choose.
=========================
It’s actually worse than that.
It’s a matter of justice. If this was a legitimate case, I’d be okay with a suspension at least this long, or even longer.
But all the evidence indicates that this was nothing but a pure con. This is entire basis behind blackmail. “Give me $5M or I will ruin your life”
And there are actually people out there encouraging her criminal behavior. She should be in jail.
Literally no reputable source has claimed the woman in this case was a grifter or liar.
========================
He released transcripts of her texts and phone calls, She did EXACTLY what she said she was going to do to ‘get his bag’.
Why do you think she dropped the lawsuit? She had -0- chance that anyone would believe her.
which team’s fanbase is most likely to admire scumbag idiots?
=============================
I get the business side of it, but if your former assistant sued you under false pretenses, would you be okay with never working in your profession again?
When people show you who they are believe them. There are facts about him that are indisputable. I’m not here to argue or change anyone’s mind, was just curious if anyone thought the same. I’m in the minority and totally fine with that. Not the first or last time. I can make my choices as a consumer, and you can too.
I’m with you, Lucky. He had a questionable character before this, I wouldn’t want him around a bunch of young players.
I agree. False claims should be dealt with severely. Especially when people, quite a few here apparently, still wanna condemn you just cuz it was brought up and they may not think your personality is wonderful. Those people need a little taste of false accusations so they can actually have their feet in someone else’s shoes before judging from afar. I always look at all POV before forming an opinion.
Finally, a logical speculative comment. Thank you.
The He-man women haters club.
Joe Brady president of the He-man women haters club.
Having the moral high ground is the equivalent of burying your head in the sand.
First, having rough intercourse with a consenting adult is not wrong. Bauer shouldn’t be condemned for that.
So what’s his questionable character? Being a jerk on social media? If that’s the case pretty much everyone on this site is a horrible person.
Several of Bauer’s teammates credit HIM with their success, helping them elevate their game. Before all this bs, Bauer was known for leading the scientific edge of pitching.
TB was hated when he first came into the league because he was untraditional in his training but so is everyone who ever questioned the status pro quo.
Cycling back, pretty much every player has “questionable character” for the morally hypocritical.
He’s got an extreme misogynistic history, mate. The alleged assault was his denouement, so to speak.
Bauer has a history. This isn’t just about one or two incidents.
I’m still waiting to hear where the moral line is. His misogynistic? Okay, let’s get rid of the majority of major league rosters because how many baseball players are honestly not? How many are not sleeping with women in every city they visit, having affairs and so on.
It’s an Oxymoron!
So him releases one side of the texts suddenly means she’s lying the whole time? If he was so credible why he drop the law suit too? He could have continued to pursue justice as you say but he also chose not to go forward. That’s a two way street .
Aside from Mookie few if any of his teammates have rushed to his defense. In fact one thing that has been documented is that Cole and Bauer have a history of dislike that goes back to their UCLA days.
Also what he has done online goes beyond simply being “mean” in a chat room. H
By all means, enlighten me.
Cole doesn’t like Bauer? And? That means what exactly? Have you ever played organized sports? Did everyone get along? Were there no clicks in the locker room? How did you treat the nerdy kid? I’m sure everyone got along with the social outcast.
For the they who asked why Bauer dropped his civil lawsuit, what would gain him going forward? Win a lawsuit for the sake of winning a lawsuit? It’s not she would be able to pay any civil damages in the event Bauer was awarded any.
Joe, with all due respect, something bad had to happen for Bauer to not take legal action. We don’t know specifics but again something happened to support the action MLB took.
Bauer did take legal action.
Manfred was just waiting for Bauer to screw up because he needled MLB every chance he got. If Bauer broke wind and some woman got offended by it, Manfred would have used it as an excuse to suspend Bauer as long as he possibly could.
I say the Red Sox should sign Bauer. Since Fenway is going to be empty this year no one will notice that Bauer will be pitching.
What would Bauer gain? Clearing his name. in court, exposing the alleged “lied” as part of the discovery process. He had a lot to gain.
Also the example I provided was the most public one. Bauer has a reputation for rubbing people the wrong way. That was the most prominent one.
Were you a part of cliques, did you bully the nerdy kid? The rhetorical questions you’re posing indicate a lot more about you. also they’re pretty pointless.
You didn’t see the texts from her phone, acell. How are you asking that question after the revelation?
Wouldn’t want Bauer around young players? That’s like saying Jeter was harmed being around Doc Gooden and Darryl Strawberry in his rookie season, among others in his younger days (Chad Curtis). What, David Wells’ off-field behaviour too much for you?
Ridiculous….
The second attempt was just as horrendous as the first, Cleaver.
Acell- yes. The answer is yes. The same answer she gave to Bauer.
If people don’t like you and refuse to invite you to a party it isn’t a violation of your constitutional rights or an egregious injustice worthy of society’s outrage. Their freedom to run a business is the same as Bauer’s freedom to pick his contract.
If you’re pretty sure it’s a vast conspiracy of woke executives doing the bidding of their liberal masters then there’s a fractional chance you’re right and a huge chance you could be diagnosed with persecution complex.
case – For the past eight years they’ve been learning at the feet of the persecution complex master. Their training is complete.
we all knew the answer was yes. so you just admitted you were a terrible teammate and a bully to nerds. Great self own there.
Joe Brady president of the He-man women haters club.
===========================
LOL!
Is that your response when your case fell apart in spectacular fashion? You put all your faith in that woman, and Bauer proved her to be a grifter. And now you are too weak to simply admit that you were wrong, extremely wrong.
CleaverGreene1 day ago
Bauer has a history. This isn’t just about one or two incidents.
===========================
This is fairly simple. Two things:
1-After all the evidence that Bauer showed, do you still believe that this wasn’t a shakedown? I really don’t see how it could be more obvious. She is quite literally saying she was after his bag.
2-IRT his history, I have -0- problem with the police and the MLB investigating other incidents.
Y’all Bauerites are very special people, willing to waste a ton of time and effort in defense of the “cause”.
acell101 day ago
So him releases one side of the texts suddenly means she’s lying the whole time? If he was so credible why he drop the law suit too?
============================
1-I eagerly look forward to her version of the texts. I assume that she has as much access to her texts as he does. The fact that she didn’t even bother to amount a defense is pretty damning.
2-Sue someone with no money?
It feels like there are some people that will are locked into believing her and wouldn’t change their minds even if she admitted that she was lying.
Other than getting her to admit perjury, what more could Bauer do to prove his innocence? Is there even a single thing Bauer could do to make you change your mind?
acell1016 hours ago
What would Bauer gain? Clearing his name. in court, exposing the alleged “lied” as part of the discovery process.
============================
How would that clear his name? He already exposed the lie, and you still don’t believe him.
I doubt you will change your mind no matter how much evidence is supplied.
So the fact that a person without millions of dollars at their disposal didn’t produce texts is somehow and admission of guilt for her now? that’s ridiculous. this reeks of victim blaming.
it feels like you’re incredibly locked into your perspective as well too Joe. I doubt there’s anything she could do short of going to trial to change your mind so perhaps bauer should be held to the same standard.
Sue someone with no money?
Yea it’s called suing someone for slander “slander” and plenty of entities do that to clear their name. If you’re going to hold one party to one standard you should do that for all parties involved.
I doubt you would change your mind either. Your’e deeply entrenched defending someone who frankly isn’t worthy of it
Your comment reeks of hypocrisy but hey, keep at it acell. One provides evidence, the other does not, you choose to pick the latter. Strong position.
So all one need to do is produce one piece of a one sided conversation as evidence and that tells the whole story? that’s incredibly stupid even by the low standards of people on this site.
@JoeBrady,
As a self-described castle doctrine libertarian, I’m bigly surprised you don’t respect her inalienable right to be a grifter.
willing to waste a ton of time and effort in defense of the “cause”.
========================
If the cause is justice, I plead guilty.
Do you actually still believe her? I’m much more concerned that some people, no matter how few, still believe that this wasn’t a setup.
How many people in here think she is being truthful?
this reeks of victim blaming.
=========================
In most cases, I believe the victim with some reasonable evidence.
“‘Next victim. Star pitcher for the Dodgers,’” Mr Bauer said, allegedly quoting his accuser. “A text Lindsey Hill sent to a friend before she ever even met me. ‘What should I steal?’ she asked another, in reference to visiting my house for the first time. The answer? ‘Take his money.’”
Even Hill admitted she looked horrible.
“accusing him of picking “three or four texts” randomly and weaving them “into a narrative where I just look horrible.”
Has she shown anything to indicate that there was more to the texts than Bauer showed? I’ll be glad to consider them.
I am torn between the need for side-splitting laughter at the utter absurdity of the Bauerite Windmill Tilters, and deep despondence over the state of affairs that has led to such a large % of folks that so wholeheartedly adopt the blathering of their twisted comrades in arms (Bauer / Ronald Grump etc.)..
it feels like you’re incredibly locked into your perspective as well too Joe
=========================
Show me some evidence. I showed you the text where she asked “what should I steal”.
You have to show me something to show that she was taken out of context. I swear to give it a fair view, but these are her texts.
So all one need to do is produce one piece of a one sided conversation as evidence and that tells the whole story?
=======================
Of course. That’s the way evidence works. You show yours and I show mine. Is there a single shred of evidence to suggest that Hill’s texts were taken out of context.
Whether it was consensual or not is irrelevant mr.brady. bottom line is Bauer is a self inflicted,self ostersized,doesn’t fit into normal society,deviant. His behind closed doors piccadillys,disgusted his employers present and future. He is unemployed and unemployable. Sorry.
As a castle-doctrine libertarian, I completely defend her right to engage in rough sex.
Agreed King. As I said before when people show you who they are, believe them. We certainly see that here. I truly don’t care if people agree with me, or make their personal attacks. Just showing who they are. I am as much of a consumer as anyone else. I make my choice, they can make theirs. No one is changing anyone’s mind.
“Bird”? No, was most definitely a “Red Snapper”…
Play that Boras Chorus again for me:
“ he’s a greedy greedy greedy man
He’s a greedy wretched old man
If you’re favorite player Is a free agent
you can kiss his services good bye “
-Shadow Banned
And I’d rather have Elizabeth Montgomery. I mean, when she was alive.
@IMInsane,
Also once a big fan of ‘Bewitched’. But you do know that Samantha Stevens lived in a big city; a big city with crime, and feces, and filth, and scary people.
He’s NOT coming to Boston unless he’s wearing another uniform. Take it to the bank.
FatChance65: I disagree. The wild card in all this is Montgomery’s wife working in Boston. He might sign somewhere else and have a long distance relationship with his wife for a year. Who knows.
At the beginning of the offseason, I thought it was a no-brainer the Sox would sign this guy. It’s the perfect feel-good story. His wife works right in town and they can throw her on NESN twenty times.
But if there’s one thing John Henry has shown us this offseason, it’s that he’s not trying to win this year. It’s amazing Bradford and McAdam are still willing to pump these nonsense stories out there for them. They’re not going to sign Montgomery, and they don’t care about this season.
Or the prior 4 years
Evidently, Jordan finds the almighty buck more important than being with his wife.
Stymeedobe – He’s got the wife forever, he doesn’t have the contract yet. Small window in life to maximize his earning potential and set his family up generationally.
If we’re playing the ‘being with your spouse card’ couldn’t we also say by her taking a residency she doesn’t want to be with her husband? I don’t look at it that way but let’s not create a double standard.
Oh. It’s good to know you want people to leave millions on the table. Rules for thee but not for me. Hypocrite.
So do I.
He gets to choose where he plays in his line of work. Regular people, like his wife, don’t have that luxury. if he plays on the west coast because he was offered $2MM more, its not like it will drastically alter his life financially, but it could alter his marriage. I’ve watched those medical dramas on tv and they’re not only about the Medicine. He’s likely to get $20MM per year where ever he signs. How much is enough once you hit that level?
Boxscore13 hours ago
Rules for thee but not for me.
==========================
Throwing numbers out at random, if someone offered you $125M/5 to pitch in Texas, or $120M/5 to pitch in Boston, where your wife had her residency, which would you choose?
My job relocated to Chicago, and was my highest paying gig by a fair margin. But my wife had a good gig as well, and the kids were in school. I didn’t have to think very much about rejecting it. OTOH, I was moderately surprised by the number of people that did relocate.
stym –
State taxes, policies, and school systems would be a bigger driver for me, but in a vacuum if that extra $2M/yr goes to investments and is compounded annually at an 8% return in 20 years (he’d be 57) it’s $100.8M.
I have no way of knowing Montgomery’s actual investment plans, maybe he blows it all on beef jerky. But that’s the difference between $20M/yr and $22M/yr.
I think the problem is it’s more like 125/5 from the Sox, 180/6 3 other teams. Now which do you choose?
The Sox aren’t out of it by only a couple million
People get to chose where they do their residence.
Texas, without state income tax
Mo Vaughns Jockstrap1 day ago
but in a vacuum if that extra $2M/yr goes to investments and is compounded annually at an 8% return in 20 years (he’d be 57) it’s $100.8M.
====================
$2M a year for 5 years is not turning into $100.8M any time soon.
lasershow451 day ago
I think the problem is it’s more like 125/5 from the Sox, 180/6 3 other teams. Now which do you choose?
=============================
If had already been offered $180M/6, we wouldn’t be having this conversation..
But sure, for that type of money, then you have a harder decision. But if it is $125/5 or $120M/5, I’d choose my wife’s profession every time.
@Joe The real question you should be asking is why SHOULDN’T Monty take the deal he wants in the very limited window he has to change his family’s financial future?
@Mo Good points. With MA having the high tax rate and high cost of living Boston would have to offer 2M to 3M more than TX per season to be competitive.
why SHOULDN’T Monty take the deal he wants in the very limited window he has to change his family’s financial future?
===================
It’s all about materiality. imho. I’ve turned down jobs based on location, type of work, etc. And I’m a commoner.
It depends on the money. I understand it when it means having a 401k or not. But the difference between $25M or $24M is meaningless.
It won’t be that much. Even if you are in a high-tax state, you still pay -0- state tax in no-tax states. And even if you play for Texas, you still have to pay state taxes when you play in CA.
For sure. Which is why it’s not 5 million.
Stop crying. You’re acting like Montgomery is sandy Koufax…. He’s an overrated number 3 (at best) pitcher who wants way more money than he’s worth. The fact that 29 other teams haven’t picked him up proves that.
It’s crazy his wife still works lol I wonder how many MLB wives have a job.
Being a SAH parent isn’t everyone’s dream. Perhaps she really loves what she does and wants to continue it
Boston should offer him 5/$120M with an opt out after year 2 and see how he reacts. Give him a $5M signing bonus, $25M for the first 3 years and $20M for the last 2 years.
Not for a 10 game winner.
Totally agree with you Butch, not worth the money. Does anyone ever look at these players stats? Even if they sign Montgomery they still are not contending. It’s a rebuild year, get used to it.
Win loss means nothing. Dependable with a 3.68 lifetime, decent in the post season. You sign him to rebuild with. This team needs starters who can reliably start.
I would settle for Lorenzen. At least show us that Breslow has a pulse.
Why Lorenzen? He had an 8.01 in his last 9 appearances.
And what was his ERA prior to that? Pretty damn good. It was his heaviest work load.
He would fit nicely with Giolito with that record.
@Mantooth Brilliant and utterly fair contract. I was thinking along the lines of a Robbie Ray contract and this one is even better.
If you make an offer to Monte, why the opt out? While he can make the team better now, the idea is to have pitchers like him when they’re ready to win. His wife”s work situation is likely 4 – 6 years. Like Dorothy’s numbers in pay him more now, less later.
Well we all know if they do sign him they’ll trade out salary to match like they did with the Giolito they traded Sale when they signed Hendriks they traded Schreiber
Why don’t they grab Snell or Montgomery on deferred money like Dodgers do???
The player has to agree to deferred $. In Ohtani’s case it’s much easier when you are leading MLB in endorsement for 2 straight seasons and counting.
As for the teams they are still paying our the current market value or at least close. Dodgers will be paying out $2M annually in salary and $44M annually to fund the deferred monies for the next 10 years. That comes with the according $46M AAV luxury tax hit. That $700M # is irrelevant to everyone except Ohtani. Dodgers gave out a contract Worth $460M for 10 years and that’s what they’ll pay. With Ohtani wanting it deferred that $ will be invested and accrue the remaining $220M through the 3rd party the $ is invested with. Ohtani could ve just taken the $44M annually and invested himself. However a $460M wouldn’t have dominated headlines like he has with the inflated #s.
I’m assuming the Ohtani contract was sought for 2 reasons specifically. Tax purpose being the first reason, as he’s also currwntly earning a ton annually in endorsements. The second reason is the media sensationalizing the inflated value has just further built on the Ohtani mystique and helps continue to fuel marketing the Ohtani brand and raising the value of future endorsement deals.
Taxes, #1. He’ll likely move from CA after the 10 years to either a non-state taxed state or back to Japan.
Defer all you want, but eventually you have to pay the piper. Hell the Mets are still paying over a million a year to Bobby Bonilla.
Not sure what this last place team is waiting for
Exactly what the article states, for Boras and Montgomery to drop their asking price to a more reasonable level. Just because you and a lot of other fans are impatient and want to see a move made doesn’t mean Boston should pay more than other teams are willing to just to sign Montgomery.
Speaking in general about front office plan.
Seems likely that the Red Sox are following common sense and realizing that the strength of the division for 2024 and the natural transition from one front office boss to another (in which he will move on from some MLB guys, look to add others, and also add certain MiLB targets) doesn’t align with pushing this year just for the sake of it.
If this were still Bloom with his job now firmly on the line, sure, push now or push never. But any extra spending that Boston does now that does not end up being good spending would be dumb – they’re unlikely to outright contend for a title, in which case what are they pushing for? There are ways to work to be more competitive while also setting up future contention without spending for the sake of spending right now.
Breslow needs some time to put his stamp on things. The Sale trade was a major example of that, converting one inherited guy into a young player he believes in – but there are only so many such opportunities in one’s first offseason.
Making some moves for the sake of upping the ante makes sense when a team is already at or near contention (or to take a contender and try to push the odds further up), but Boston isn’t there. If it wants to get there sooner rather than later, better to conserve one’s ammo at the moment than dump some of it into the “best available”, but not confident, options. That’s not exciting, but it is sensible. For now. Just now. Breslow shouldn’t be beholden to leaping just because of the justified impatience of fans following the previous regime’s term, but that’s a short-term thing.
Thanks for a clearly stated post. This is pretty much my view on things as well. Considering most free agent contracts follow a progression of better years up front and then diminishing returns as it runs the full length of the contract if the Sox aren’t likely to contend this year burning one of the “good” free agent years on a lost cause season doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Looking at the potential free agent starters for next winter there will be a number of very good options then as well. Instead of locking into a 6-year deal for someone like Montgomery right now waiting out this year, getting another year to evaluate guys like Bello, Crawford, Whitlock and Houck, and another year of development for the prospects like Mayer, Anthony, Teel and Rafaela will have the team in a better spot next winter to consider a splash move than they’re in right now.
Well said but this isn’t 20 years ago where there were only a few teams spending money. It’s easy to see them thinking about putting the 25 million towards a better pitcher next year or year after that. Thing is, if the Dodgers want Wheeler we aren’t getting him. If the Braves want Burnes we aren’t getting him. So yea, you get Monty if you have the chance because there too many big spenders out there to bank on getting the best players especially if you keep running off last place finishes. You don’t get Monty for this year as much as getting a great #3 starter for the next 5 years
It’s not about pushing for this year. It’s about laying the foundation for when we’re ready to contend again. When Mayer, Teel and Anthony come up, wouldn’t it be nice to have someone like Monty in the rotation to back them up and hopefully take starts in the playoffs if they get there?
More than that, it at least shows that Red Sox ownership cares enough about the team and winning. It makes this year’s product respectable. It makes it so you don’t have to force Whitlock or Houck into the rotation again when they’re clearly MUCH more effective as relievers.
Not sure why this keeps being brought up as “Red Sox fans want Monty to contend this year.” It’s not about this year it’s about the future. It’s such a total non sequitur to assume that Sox fans only want Monty for this year. No one in Sox nation is under a delusion that Monty makes us a contender this year.
Did you miss the part about the best years being the early ones?
Bob, you assume a lot when you assume Montgomery will be great for the next 5 years. More realistic is he’ll be good to very good the next 3 years and then more or less league average after that, right as the young core of players the Sox are hoping develops are rounding into shape.
redsoxu571 – Wow, the job of GM must be incredibly hard because we keep hearing about how Bloom needed 3 years at a minimum and we all know how that turned out.
Now it’s time to step back and let Breslow do his thing after watching the previous GM destroy the franchise. Did you not live through the same destruction the rest of us fans did?
Leaping is such a hyperbole when it comes to describing a guy dragging his feet. A single action is hardly a LEAP. There are many, many opportunities NOT TAKEN this winter and spring and to write it off as part of the process is to turn a blind eye to incompetence. Being a GM isn’t rocket science, and you don’t have to measure every inch of the floor of your garage before you sweep it. Being lethargic and being pensive are NOT the same thing.
Breslow needed to act sooner and get the guys needed not the guys that are left..
King – So you are good with tanking 2024?
Tell me where you think we need significant changes because I only see four places and that was achievable this off season but Breslow CHOSE not to do it.
1 – Fire Cora
2 – Move Devers to DH and trade Yoshida to reduce payroll
3 – Sign two all-star level SPs (many were available)
4 – Sign an all-star level 3B or a young future 3B
That’s all that was needed to turn the 78 win team into a 90 plus win team. All the things you suggested could have happened too. We need to evaluate Duran, Rafaela, Abreu and Anthony in the outfield. We need to evaluate Grissom and see if he is the long term solution or a bad choice by Breslow. We need to see if Teel improves to become the starting Catcher in 2025. We need to see if Bello, Houck, Crawford and Whitlock are good long term solutions. We also need to see if we have the needed lefty and righty live arms to sit in front of Kenley in 2024 and Hendriks in 2025. We also have to see if all the gambling Breslow did pays off . Is Giolito a workhorse SP1 or a SP3 or a SP5? Is O’Neill capable of staying healthy and performing and then we need to decide if it’s repeatable.
There is lots to learn in 2024 but why throw immediate success away because Breslow is inept at his job? I say go for the key four fixes and take a shot at making the playoffs in 2024 rather than waiting. I think Bloom made us do enough waiting and I am very concerned Breslow and his supporters are falling into the same trap Bloom fell into, a trap of accepted mediocrity.
Ken, to be fair I did say great # 3 starter , which is basically a guy who is solidly above average, durable, and keeps the team in games. I don’t see why Monty can’t earn a five year contract under those expectations. My bigger point was that unless the Sox are planning on dishing out out record contracts for aces they aren’t going to be able to get aces, and even then, there’s just too many teams willing to spend big that are more attractive to free agents than Boston. The next Red Sox playoff team will likely have a juggernaut offense, improved defense, and have 5 solid # 3 starters. Maybe a #2 mixed in.
Bob – OUTSTANDING. The future is more uncertain than the present and we can’t sign anyone now so why will that be different in 2025 or beyond. The franchise is in shambles and will be in a year. Maybe the horrific manager will be gone if all things go as they should. Maybe, Breslow will grow a pair and move Devers to DH but there are no guarantees that will happen by 2025 so no pitchers will want to pitch for Boston.
The FA list in 2025 will be devoured by the biggest predators like it was in 2024 and the same will be true for 2026 and beyond. This whole idea that waiting is good needs to stop.
Waiting is for loser franchises. It’s not smart caution, it’s a complete lack of intestinal fortitude. With three over pays already on Breslow’s ledger, it’s clear there are no financial constraints, there are just excuses by ownership and Breslow and the fans who are ultra conservative and don’t really get what it takes to build a winner.
Right paying $30M a year for a DH is a recipe for success. Get off the idea of eating that much salary as a DH. It ain’t happening anytime soon. And if you value Yoshida so poorly why would any other team take him off the Sox hands? The only way they would have moved him is to have eaten a portion of his salary, which really doesn’t help the team much. As is usually the case with your comments you’re big on wishful thinking and very short on specifics. I tend to spend more time in hard reality.
Ken, I’m honestly not trying to pick a fight with you here bc you do seem like a thoughtful fan and commenter. I agree completely that 30 million dollars a year for a DH is not a recipe for success, but that money has already been laid out. It’s a done deal. It’s akin to when teams eat tens of millions to cut a guy. It’s money already spent. Only way we don’t have a 30 million DH is if we trade Casas. It doesn’t matter if you play him at 3rd a DH is what he is
Sam – Lets start with your belief that things will somehow improve when Mayer (who has performed far below expectations), Teel (who has only had one year) and Anthony (who has had only one year) are on the Red Sox roster. The development life cycle suggests they won’t be all-stars instantly so the GOOD version of the Boston Red Sox are YEARS AWAY if you are counting on 3 unproven players to become all-star quality players to make us competitive.
You also completely discredit the current farm players who are 2 years or more ahead of the three players you focused on . They are more likely to be our future stars than the three you mentioned. Either way, you have to ask how do you get the timing right to make all this happen.
Rather than looking at what DD did to turn a last place team into a division winner three years in a row, you are preaching weak concepts on how to build a winner.
The window NEEDS to be 2024 to 2029. The best young players will be free agents in 2030 so the future stars will either emerge from our current young players or we will need to acquire them. In the meantime, we have a long term solution at LF, CF RF,DH 1B and 2B. We have Teel coming to be the long term catcher solution. We need a long term 3B, we need a long term SS and hopefully Mayer can be at least a league average SS during his pre-arb and arb years. Then there is pitching. We need TWO top of the rotation all-star quality pitchers so Bello, Houck, Crawford can develop and hopefully be outstanding SP3 to SP5s for years.
The future needs to start this year with a competitive team. The resources are available but the GM and/or ownership are impeding the progress. That needs to change.
My hope when Bloom took over for Dombo was that he would move Devers to 1B and Xander to 2B first order of business. New GM, New Vision, the time was then
You all do realize thaws have ZERO pitching prospects they can turn to so no matter what they need to sign pitching and most of the staff now are injury prone and probably won’t put much effort out because the owners aren’t putting money into it
It could be Montgomery wants an opportunity to contend in Year One of his new contract and he will see that won’t be happening in Boston. And if he is circumspect that it could happen in Year 2 , and with his wife done with her residency then, perhaps Boston is not on his list no matter what.
Bob –
If you see him as a sink cost, before nuking Devers value by DHing him yr 2 of that contract, start with $2M on an infield instructor? If he improves give him another yr. Febles is gone and the new infield coach isn’t announced the last I looked. That seems like the better value play.
Run Devers with a new infield coach for 2 yrs and Yoshida wld be entering yr4 of his deal. If he isn’t a .300 hitter w/20hrs go ahead and shop his last 2 yrs.
I’m a Yoshida at DH fan, and as bad as Devers is at throwing the ball, I’ll roll with him at 3B for now to maintain his value. You need a SS with a canon though so getting Story to 2B is the bigger priority in my mind.
Devers value depreciates too quickly if he goes to DH now.
Ken – Next offseason’s free agent class sucks, especially for starting pitchers. Other than Burnes and Fried, who do you think would help the Sox?
I’ll help you, here’s the list. Tell me which of these pitchers (other than Burnes or Fried) would be a better longterm signing than Monty or Snell.
Chase Anderson (37)
Shane Bieber (30)
Walker Buehler (30)
Corbin Burnes (30)
Carlos Carrasco (38)
Luis Cessa (33)
Alex Cobb (37)*
Patrick Corbin (35)*
Zach Davies (32)
Anthony DeSclafani (35)
Jack Flaherty (29)
Chris Flexen (30)
Max Fried (31)
Kyle Gibson (37) – option
Marco Gonzales (33) – $15MM club option (no buyout)
Andrew Heaney (34)
Kyle Hendricks (35)
Merrill Kelly (36) – $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Clayton Kershaw (37) – player option
Yusei Kikuchi (34)
Chad Kuhl (32)
Jordan Lyles (34)
Lance Lynn (38) – $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Sean Manaea (33) – can opt out
Nick Martinez (34) – can opt out of remaining one year, $12MM
Wade Miley (38) – $12MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout
John Means (32)
Frankie Montas (32)
Charlie Morton (41)
James Paxton (35)
Freddy Peralta (29) – $8MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Martin Perez (34)*
Jose Quintana (36)
Robbie Ray (33)* – can opt out of remaining two years and $50MM
Colin Rea (34) – $5.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Max Scherzer (40)*
Luis Severino (31)
Drew Smyly (36) – $10MM mutual option with a $2.5MM buyout, if he does not opt out after 2023
Mike Soroka (27)
Matt Strahm (33)
Ross Stripling (35)
Spencer Turnbull (32)
Jose Ureña (33)
Justin Verlander (42)* – conditional player option
Michael Wacha (33) – $16MM player option
Luke Weaver (31) – club option
Zack Wheeler (35)*
Trevor Williams (33)
Alex Wood (34)
Bob – Cora refuses to play Devers at first base.
The manager of the Dominican team wanted Devers to play first base in last year’s WBC, but Cora refused to allow it. Dumb decision because it would have been a great opportunity to see how well he could handle the position.
Fever – Based on 3B Devers, my vision of 1B Devers is Buckner’s one notorious play, except every night
Mo – Your comments are insane. Devers and a new coach means NOTHING. He sucked his ENTIRE LIFE at 3B.
Remember the definition of insanity because expecting something new from Devers qualifies you.
Fever – OUTSTANDING LIST!!!
Fever – ABSOLUTELY NO REASON TO CHECK THE TIRES.
THEY ARE FLAT AS PANCAKES!!!!
DEVERS IS ONLY A DH!!!
GA – Be fair to Buckner, his glove was close. Devers’ won’t be!!!
Troll, nice rant and I agree on the four items but it’s obvious to me that Breslow had no ownership consent to do any of those four items. That’s why I blame Bloom for only one thing: not truly finding young pitchers.
Yoshida’s hitting I think will be big this year but defense saves pitchers and is the most overlooked part of the game. The Sox won in 18 in. spite of Devers at third. Since that deal is done, it’s better to move him to DH regardless of the price and hope without worrying about fielding, his bat again goes from very good to top ten.
Perfect post!
How long is the residency? I thought four to six years?
Perfect post.
This is going to take more then one year to right the ship,. Monty is going to be 32 years old. Bad investment in my opinion.
Yaz – Ageism continues to be one of the forms of discrimination that is not only tolerated, but accepted. It shouldn’t be.
Pitchers improve with experience.
Scherzer’s 4 best years were between Age 32-37.
3 of Verlanders best 4 years were between Age 35-39.
So many other pitchers with similar trajectories.
Troll –
Yeah, it’s insane to try to fix a 27yr on a $300M+ contract. when moving him to DH drops his value by at least 10%. Considering his bat already wasn’t as valuable in 2023 (it’s a recoverable drop), let’s potentially accelerate his value decrease by moving him to DH now where it solely becomes about his bat.
If you ever hope to have a chance of trading Devers, he has to stay at 3B for another 2 yrs. Hiring an infield instructor isn’t unheard of – reference what the Braves did with Ron Washington when they were bringing up their young infield core.
GASoxFan most of Dever’s errors are on throws. He’s certainly built like a first baseman. At this point we are stuck with him at 3rd because of signing Masa and the promotion of Casas. Not to mention we don’t even have a two- way 3b prospect anywhere in the system that I can think of. Devers at 3rd can work if everyone on else on defense is good. Let’s hope they bring Rafaela North, that Story’s surgically repaired elbow holds up, and Teel continues rocketing thru the system. Then it becomes much less of an issue
Bob – Thats 100% not true at all.
Dating back to 2017, Devers had 129 charged errors, of which 66 were fielding, 63 throwing. In 2023, he had 19 total charged, 11 fielding and 8 throwing showing the trend continues.
Now, we can discuss how many errors are scored as hits due to MLB directives to the official scorers, but, that would only skew the numbers more heavily into the fielding category. That’s why I instered the word charged errors… he has had way more than that if he played back when errors didn’t get scored as hits the way they so often do now.
If you think a poor arm on a defender wouldn’t lead to issues, Casas’ 5 charged errors in ’23 had a 3/2 split. In ither words, throws that.sail to the dugout or wall when Devers is at 3rd would probably wind up in the OF if he throws from first….
Fact is, Devers isn’t particularly good at anything on defense.
Yikes! Def my bias based on plays that I personally remember seeing him butcher. I stand corrected. Wow. That sucks! He makes some really great plays. I guess he botches the easy ones a lot more than I thought.
GA –
Those stats are incomplete without context. They don’t tell the whole story. Before I unpack that, I’ll say Devers needs to improve as a defender, but I’m highlighting his specific opportunity.
I can’t distribute proprietary stats but the quickest/closest reference I can share is using Baseball Savant – Fielding Illustrator. You’ll need toggle his starting and ending position, as well as direction on the attempt.
Devers issue, other than not being mentally present at all times, is his pre-pitch setup being too deep, going to his left, and a weak arm that is the 46th percentile. His arm is manageable if properly located pre-pitch. Devers grades at least avg when going towards 3B and when his movement is limited he converts outs at a higher than avg rate. Considering it’s harder for a 3B to set his feet when going left, and Devers knowing his arm strength, he ends up rushing his fielding process. Febles/Cora thought setting Devers up deep, like how Chapman plays, would increase his reaction time, range, and allow him to set his feet. The issue is, his arm can’t play that deep so he still ends up hurrying himself.
When he’s set up towards the line and about halfway between 3B and the OF grass he is an avg to slightly above avg defender. Probing further, he had issues coming in towards the 3B line but with all other movements towards that line, he’s strong. That again makes intuitive sense, as his momentum is carrying in, towards the 3B dugout if he is making a downhill attempt from a deep setup (i.e. hard to set his feet). When he is in, his movement to 3rd is lateral or back, and from a momentum view, that is an easier directional movement to get your feet set for the throw. With a weak arm, he needs his feet or he’s overthrowing while off balance.
I could continue unpacking this deeper but I’ll stop here.
Again, this would be easier if I could share the proprietary stuff but Savant does a good enough job showing this. Devers needs to be in more, towards 3B, and told to leave everything to his left to the SS. For that to work, the SS needs to have range and a canon.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/statcast-infield-de…
Replying to self:
To add clarity, the weak arm comment is overthrowing and inaccuracy. His max throw speed is amongst the highest of 3B, but like all things Devers, if he is going to do something he is going to do it to the max. Throw as hard as I can. He isn’t a less-is-more guy. Look at the violence in his swing.
By being so deep he thinks he needs to rifle it over to 1B even more. K Hayes has one of the slowest max throws and is arguably top 3 leather at 3B. Same for J Ramirez.
His set up being deep increases his movement to get to a ball, which for a slow clumsy guy, it takes him longer. That in turn reduces the time he has to throw further increasing his thought/need to throw harder.
Devers avg throw speed (84.8 mph) is 96.5% of max (89.2 mph), but his max is like 0.2 mph faster than Hayes who avgs 91.4% (81.4 mph) of his max – he repeats his throw consistently and throws softer. Chapman is a freak who avgs near 90 mph fastballs as his base throw….he avg’s Devers max, which is where most guys max out at 3B. Hayes’ most frequent pre-pitch setup is right where I’m suggesting Devers set up so he can slow his throw-down.
The issue is Devers pre-pitch setup, which falls on whoever is teaching infield. Players have to be put in positions to succeed.
So let’s summarize:
You claim if Devers, a player entering his 8th season as a mlb-er, only kept his head in the game, learned where to line up, only played balls that are practically hit straight at him to the exclusion of anything to his left, but, also avoids balls off on the baseline too far to his right, and managed to not throw wildly, and only knew how to set his feet, never had to come in to play balls based on where the hop was which varies on every hit just because he cant handle throwing downhill, AND, to top it all off if he only had one of the game’s few elite superstar shortstops with an exceptional range and plus arm to cover where Devers is incapable of getting to a ball, then MAYBE Devers has the potential to grade as an average defender on the plays he tries to make.
Did I get it all?
Sure. If thats what you think the words I typed were conveying then you got it all.
Being a FA, that’s likely what it will take, especially with a Boras client. To be the winning bidder, 29 other teams have to think that amount is too much. He’s not worth that. (In most cases)
I really miss the days when the Red Sox gave a crap about winning
Signing albatross contracts is the best way to not win.
Right now these seem like albatross contracts.
Halo – SPOT ON!!!
Albatross contracts include
1 DEVERS – worst in Boston history by far and they have had some bad ones!!
2 STORY – complete waste of $140MM
3 YOSHIDA – complete waste of $90MM due to Devers
BAD CONTRACTS THAT HURT
1 GIOLITO – $38.5MM wasted in two years
2 JANSEN AND MARTIN – $47MM for two great relievers on a really crap team for two years. Completely unnecessary.
3 TURNER and SALE – $23.7MM wasted on guys NOT ON THE ROSTER.
Fiscal responsibility by the GM and Owners has been non existent for four years!!! Bad contracts, a dumpted superstar and all but one significant player from the 2018 team and dozens of dumpster dives.
I am worried about the seeming mindset of ownership these days, but whether it’s true or not that they care about winning that doesn’t amount to spending for the sake of spending. Save it for the right moves. Have you seen some “right moves” that were there for the franchise’s taking that they passed on this offseason?
The right moves how about the best player in baseball in any of are life times or idk how about when they had the 1b (Betts) best player in baseball and traded him for trash who are they saving this money for their golden prospect Mayer who’s falling down in the rankings fast
Who would argue that Giolito is an upgrade on Sale?
Given Sale’s injury history over the last half-decade, there’s probably an argument that a full season of mediocre Giolito is a safer bet than half a season or less of good-but-no-longer-elite Sale. There are also some people who would tell you that Giolito has the potential to regain ace form (I am not one of those people; I think his success dramatically diminished after sticky stuff crackdowns and is unlikely to ever be “elite” again).
In my mind, the pros and cons probably balance out and make it a wash, though I suppose I slightly prefer Giolito.
ability wise i would say sale is better but overall i would say giolito is better just because he has made more starts last year than sale has in the last few years combined
(i don’t the exact numbers but it sure does feel that way)
The best ability is availability
How good a pitcher is isn’t measured by how many games he plays. It’s how well he pitches and how many wins he helps his team get. Gio has great stuff and I know he’ll find his form again. Sale doesn’t have to find it. He’s always had it.
Sale had some troubles last year. He looked very bad at times.
lucky – Sale made an adjustment late in the season that led to a 1.13 ERA, .154 BAA and 19 K’s in 16 innings with just 4 walks.
How a pitcher ends a season is often a good indication of how he will pitch the following season.
Fever – great stats but my ONLY counter argument is that he still has Cora and he messes with his head and mechanics so Sale has gone to a better place!!! Which is anywhere Cora is not.
Giolito is a great batting practice pitcher, but can’t one of their coaches do that?
Giolito has innings in his favor over Sale. Sale has skill over Giolito and it’s not close. Sale has been mishandled by Cora and it impacted his performance greatly. In ATL, I expect the old Sale back since the issues with Cora have gone away. What is hard to predict is whether Giolito will have issues with Cora as well. Cora ruined Price, he ruined Sale, he nearly destroyed Eovaldi with his spring training screw-up in 2019. IF Giolito can deal with him he’s got a 50/50 chance of being a decent SP2 but he’ll be facing SP1 which will significantly limit his success in 2024.
If there was no Cora, I’d take Sale in a heart beat. With Cora, I’d take Giolito but I don’t see him having huge success with Cora. Cora needs to go and full control of the pitching needs to be given to a qualified person. That hasn’t been true during the CORA era.
TF – I’m holding out hope that between Bailey and Breslow the pitching staff will perform closer to their capabilities.
Cora will likely be overruled, especially with him being a lame duck.
@Fever, how long of a leash do you think Cora has?? If the team is in last place and 10 games back on Memorial Day, would that be enough for his dismissal?? Or do you think , no matter what, you guys are stuck with him all year???
Fever – Would love to see what you suggest but little weasel will pop out of his hole and disrupt things mid game. I guarantee it.
Ignorant – I’ve sent Breslow instructions on how to convert a simple rope to a noose. Hope he uses it.
Ignorant – I think Cora has the entire season, they will just let his contract run out.
For one, the Sox don’t have a history of firing managers midseason. Last time was Jimy getting replaced by Kerrigan in 2001., so this ownership has NEVER fired midseason … not even Valentine.
Second, you typically fire midseason when you have reason to believe you can contend for the postseason. That’s not the case here. If they overachieve, no reason to fire Cora midseason. If they underachieve, there would be no benefit in firing midseason.
The one possible situation that could cause a midseason firing, if they wanted Tek to get his feet wet and see how he does as a manager.
Long Suffering: As much as I love Gio, there’s no question that Sale is the better pitcher.
I would argue that, for the red sox specifically, giolito is a better fit than sale.
I’ve posted it every time he comes up that I discuss him, but, it’s still the answer to your question:
1) giolito hasn’t had a QO yet. If he’s GREAT this year you get a choice at the deadline: keep him if somehow all the chips fell.riggt and you have a shot at the post season; float him for a good return at the deadline; discuss an extension that removes his opt out; or, keep him and tag him with a QO after he opts out.
2) he’s less than prime, but, injury history and mechanics suggest a very limited injury profile. Maybe his fly ball issue rears it’s head, but, his era is inflated by something other than the bad infield defense. You get a workhorse that keeps the bullpen from being as taxed, which, allows other starters to be lifted earlier as needed because the pen is fresh. Also the pen suffers less dead arms as the season goes on because the most 6+ or 7ip starts he has the less innings the pen has to eat. He doesn’t opt out, and you get to repeat this same set of outcomes next year.
GASox – I agree, if the goal is to simply get through yet another “bridge year” then Gio would help give innings and his ERA wouldn’t matter.
I wanted to keep Sale when I believed ownership wanted to win this year. Since they don’t, no sense in hanging onto Sale.
I would argue that Giolito would make more starts than Sale, but the performance in those starts would not compare to a Sale performance
I’m actually pretty confident that Montgomery is going to end up in Boston. Remember back in ’21-’22 when we spent the whole offseason panicking that they hadn’t signed a second baseman? That Story contract was announced on March 20, for less money and fewer years than some outlets had predicted. Stuff like this happens all the time, and if I was Montgomery, I’d be more optimistic about taking a slightly cheaper deal in Boston than I would be about taking it with the Angels or the Giants. Even with the current (and probably deserved) reputation of the Sox front office as stingy, they’re more likely to be a perennial contender than either of those other teams.
Of course, maybe all of that should be sobering for fellow Sox fans. We all know how the Story deal worked out…
thecroc – Giants or Texas. He’d be an idiot to come to Boston with Cora as the manger and Devers as the 3B.
Texas is deep and they expect their pitching costs to lower in the future thanks to a stacked farm system I wouldn’t be shocked if a shorter termed deal comes up with Texas despite Monty probably wanting a longer deal.
If it’s Texas for 2 years of Boston for 5. I’d take the 2 and enjoy receiving a ring or two in that time period. In Boston, with Monty, it’s still no playoffs. They need TWO SPs to get to the playoffs.
Tf…So yer saying youd think poorly of montgomery if he signed with your favorite team?..i get your point ..you dont like devers defense ..you hate cora..and the current team is not playoff worthy..but please realize he’d only be an “idiot” if he signed in boston short term since devers may not play 3b that much longer..cora will not be back in 2025 and this team will improve…so long term hes making a solid life decision
Pool – I loved the move by Young to pick him up last year. He did well because he had a GREAT coaching staff. Far better than the new one under Breslow.
If he goes to Boston, he has to deal with a losing team, a terrible defense led by Devers, a miserable manager who is clueless to how to manage pitchers, a new coaching staff that wasn’t selected by the manager so may have issues getting along and a new GM who hasn’t worked very hard upgrading the talent. So no more rings in his future in Boston and chaos in the front office and ownership. I wouldn’t wish that on many people.
The current team COULD BE playoff worthy if they spent the necessary money to upgrade their pitching and 3B. I really like the young kids. I don’t think Gio or O’Neill add much value but my hope was that we’d see Anthony in LF, Duran in CF and Rafeala in RF or SS with Abreu in RF.
Dump Yoshida and Story once the season starts and injuries happen around the league. It would help a lot if both Story and Yoshida started quickly in 2024 but that seems like a huge long shot.
Money to get 2 SPs for 5 years should cost $50MM to $60MM per year and without Yoshida that is $32MM to $40MM which is under the cap. Had we not wasted so much on Giolito, O’Neill and Grissom we would not be near the cap until we upgraded 3B unless we use internal players to plug the hole temporarily.
Based on the actions of ownership since they fired DD I don’t consider Boston a STABLE place to land as a player. Great history but total chaos has occurred for over four years. Job security is bad. HR hiring decisions have been terrible. If I was Monty, I’d choose a short term deal with Texas and hope to work with Chris Young on being move to a contender when he needs to make room for more young pitchers.
The Cora issue does not seem to have an ending despite his contract. The Devers disaster has no ending in sight despite it devastating the pitchers for 7 years now. If I were Monty and my choice was Boston and multiple other teams I would put Boston at the bottom of the list and it kills me to write that since it didn’t have to be this way. We were on top of the world at the end of 2018.
Tf..thats fine to live in the past and complain about that if it helps you deal with the current state of the team. but you replied to me and totally ignored what i wrote about your argumemts only being valid short term..ie 2024 aside from devers..he may be at 3b longer and did not answer the simple question i asked. ..are you saying this man would be an ” idiot” to sign with your favorite team? Yes or no?
Pool – I apologize if I misread your statement and avoided answering your single question.
Here is my not so simple answer.
1 – Given the state of the Red Sox he would be an idiot
2 – Given his alternatives he would be an idiot
3 – Cashing in on the biggest money is a logical but bad choice if it’s Boston.
4 – Until the rain storm over Boston goes away nobody should sign in Boston.
THE RAINSTORM –
1 – Inconsistent performance by ownership
2 – Cora as manager
3 – Two consecutive under qualified GMs
4 – The worst 3B in history playing 3B
If Texas was in the mix, I’d think that would be a no-brainer for Montgomery. But they’ve been even more vocal than the Sox have about not having room in their budget for further additions, so I don’t think that’s likely to happen.
Also, I agree with you that even with Montgomery the Sox are unlikely to make the postseason, let alone go deep into it.
TF – Zero chance Monty signs with the Rangers, they’ve said all winter they are maxed out on payroll.
I think he winds up with Giants, Phillies or Yankees.
But yeah, I have a glimmer of hope John Henry will look at updated advance ticket sales and approve signing Monty.
Fever – Local interviews suggest there is room but Monty wants too many years and they have up and coming young pitchers they want to make room for. I think a one or two year deal could be done because Scherzer and deGrom are not locks to be back healthy.
If I was Monty, I would do a 1 year with a 1 year option and work with Chris Young to be moved to a long term contract with another team when the Rangers can back fill a ptiching injury on another team or a deal at the trade deadline.
TF – Monty’s value is at it’s peak and will never be this high again, so a short term deal wouldn’t make sense. I highly doubt he’s gonna have a sub-3 ERA again like he did with the Rangers.
Fever – He can’t be paid on a one year performance. His logical pay is around $25MM for the next several years. He’s good but not great.
We don’t want to pay Montgomery but we want him. We don’t need to extend Bello but we should to make him a better more motivated pitcher on a bad ball club. SMH Boston. There’s good reason why nobody wanted this gm job.
What makes this a “bad” ball club? Accounting for what has been arguably the best division over a multi-year span in MLB history, this has been a mediocre team. Does it look significantly worse than it has been? I don’t think so.
It makes sense to complain that a franchise like Boston shouldn’t be so patient with mediocrity, but right now there’s not much reason to claim “bad”.
The Red Sox and Yankees are looking up at Tampa not behind them. That’s come from luxury cap spending put back into these developmental camps, increases scouting and a fine tuning throughout the analytics department. Year after year the rays get poached and get better. That’s not the case with Boston or New York anymore. Wether it be the pressure or the expectation neither team has fitted that bill to the level they’d consistently like since their last championships aside from the Sox in ‘18 were going back to 09 and 13 for both clubs. That’s mid tier baseball.
HEHEHATE – Bizarre comment.
The Rays have as many rings as I do. Enough horse crap about a franchise that can’t win.
The Yankees went out and took action to improve this off season and Boston hasn’t. That’s been the case for the Yankees for 100 years. Spend more if you don’t like the results because the effort satisfies the fan base.
In Boston, ownership allowed Bloom to blow-up the franchise. Now that it’s been four years since DD was GM the MLB roster has been decimated BUT DD’s draft picks and other acquisitions are still in the picture. Those players have changed the time table for a rebuild. They limit the needs to turn things around by giving long-term solutions at low cost allowing ownership and Breslow to spend big to get the pillars for future success. We need the 5 lost all-stars replaced to be competitive We had the money but Breslow has wasted it on fledgling players who have only a long shot chance of being the all-stars we need.
You mentioned 3 teams and NONE of them are alike. TB as a young franchise has better infrastructure to their farm system but a limited payroll that prevents them from actually winning so they satisfy their fan base with “look how much we accomplished without money!” Great speech but not rings. The Yankees are a big sloppy drunken sailor of a franchise. They have money falling out of their pockets and thanks to an incredibly bad front office all the money in the world can’t buy them success since 1962. Boston is yet a different type of franchise. They are an abused franchise that suffered for nearly a century and then found success through a new owner who was willing to spend slightly less money than the Yankees but hired a way smarter GM to bring them success. The success was intermittent but consistent for 15 years then the franchise got up sized and the dedication to winning was removed like a super villain reaching into the chest of the hero and pulling his heart out.
All three franchise have unique histories and flaws. Is one better than the other two? It depends on how you measure success. Is success having the biggest names in the game but not winning rings? Is success having the lowest payroll in the game and making the playoffs annually but not winning rings? Is success being good only during the first two decades of each century limiting the rings to 15 year windows every century?
They all have their flaws. None standout as superior. Same can be said for Toronto and Baltimore yet the five of them make-up the best division in baseball. Go figure.
My point about the 3 is what have they done and where are they now.
The Yanks are drowning nose deep in water paying 110% on 310 million luxury tax that’s being funneled to you guessed it those lowly life rays. That are using that money to put a better consistent product on the field at a fraction of the cost. We’re starting to see the fruits of labor there. The extensive international relationships whether that’s scouting or development. Advanced analytics. Aggressive 40 man roster manipulation and negotiating tactics Brian cashman hasn’t had in years aside from taking on bloated contracts and dead money to begin with. The credit I’ll give to cashman is the bullpen. He’s made some amazing under the radar moves there. But if we’re gonna give the man credit for salary dumps that’s pretty lame if you ask me and history has shown us from Stanton how those contracts age.
Meanwhile bostons out here wanting to lock up guys that don’t deserve it. Playing 2/3 fiddle in the division and addressing secondary needs over primary ones. I do give Boston a bigger pass, but that front office has been a mess for years. Too much hands on control from ownership. You gotta let these gms be unless they end up treating your franchise like Aj Prellar and want to watch a dump truck fall off the Empire State Building.
If Boston and Ny took a page out of tampas book they might be able to fix themselves long term vs being overrated as is.
If we’re gonna go through the division Baltimore can’t retain/develop pitching and ownership turnover killed them this off season and Toronto has balked at basically making any major move on that roster since the springer signing.
I like what Tampa is doing a lot because it makes baseball sense at the end of the day. They might not have a ring to show for it, but it’s down right impressive in the “best division in baseball” where the other four just scream pretenders to me.
“If Boston and Ny took a page out of tampas book they might be able to fix themselves long term vs being overrated as is.”
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I think this was John Henry’s thinking and why he hired Bloom from the Rays.
“what have they done and where are they now”
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2023:
Rays: 99 wins, $131.8M CBT payroll per Spotrac
Bos: 78 wins, $225.7M
2022:
Rays: 86 wins, $125.3M
Bos: 78 wins, $236.1M
2021:
Rays: 100 wins, $89.8M
Bos: 92 wins, $207.6M
If the Red Sox act more like the Rays in the areas of talent evaluation and player development while continuing to significantly outspend them, they should be much better than the Rays. The Red Sox can afford to keep talent the Rays are forced to trade.
It’s not so much as being forced to vs shuffling the deck. There’s so much momentum coming up in the system in Tampa you have to move out talent for the sake of maintaining it. You get a cheaper contract with more control. Tampa is the absolute best at manipulating the league when it comes down to this all while continuing to reap the luxury tax rewards from those supposed better teams than them.
Suit, those figures are misleading.
Yes Henry spent money. NO, it wasn’t sound decision making by bloom.
The rays don’t take the number of flyers on guys like kluber and paxton that Boston did under bloom.
The rays also don’t take a nearly $20m underwater contract like JBJ to get lottery ticket prospects back.
At the same time, other big spenders like the dodgers and Yankees don’t do it either.
Using salary totals from the bloom years is as bad a comp as you can get, because the money wasn’t being spent on guys with any likelihood of contributing, and, instead throwing MASSIVE amounts of funds at roster churn hoping to get something to flip for prospects.
And NEITHER big spending clubs NOR development focused teams like TB or even CLE do it like that either.
It was a unique attempt to accelerate development by using money, and, failed spectacularly.
GA: The point still stands that the Rays have been winning more games than the Red Sox while spending less. Even if they spent the same amount, the Rays have been outperforming the Red Sox. I don’t claim to know the best approach, but I do like avoiding long, expensive free agent contracts that often go bad. I guess John Henry didn’t like spending his all-time high of $242M in 2019 to miss the playoffs so he fired Dombrowski and headed in a different direction.
Except, dombrowski wasn’t the source. The year before the team won an all-time high most game, a number I’d point out the rays never matched while winning a WS the rays never have won.
2019 was 100% on Alex Cora.
GA: Who hired Cora? Dombrowski hired Cora. Also, you succeed or fail as an organization. Dombrowski must have been in on the decisions made for 2019. The players went along with it too. No way one person is to blame for everything.
Suit: thats your take and you’re entitled to it.
But, I point to the fact Dombrowski wasn’t allowed to remove Cora (the problem), and, even after previously unknown details about Cora (cheating role) came to light, Henry and Co wanted him back, and Henry and company dictated Cora gets to finish out his contract in Boston telling potential new GM hires no way no how can Cora be replaced for ’24.
It’s VERY POSSIBLE that Dombrowski wanted to fire Cora and Henry said no, and, that was part of the ‘direction of the franchise’ that led to the separation. Equally possible as your scenario. In fact, I’d say it may be likely that brass got wind of what the evidence being collected about Coras role in Houston was, and, what would be coming out in the report that would be issued in a few more months.
GA: My main point is I think the Red Sox are generally headed in a good direction if they are going to act more like the Rays but continue to outspend them.
Suit: if the red sox can get back to signing some core talented guys fans want (mold of mookie, bogey) and avoid being forced into bad decisions on guys who should’ve been dumped (devers) to give fans continuity and connection with home-grown future HOF potential superstars (again, mookie, bogey) instead of trading away or insulting and letting them walk?
OK, a *little* more rays to supplement is good. But, if they keep up trading away superstars or letting them walk, which is the rays way, and just cycle guys in and out for 3 years or 4 years then they’re gone? No thanks to that.
GASox – Great post as always!
The Rays haven’t won a legit postseason series since 2008.
And if “The Rays Way” was supposedly good, why does Friedman feel the need to spend like a drunken sailor with the Dodgers?
The #1 problem with the Red Sox organization is John Henry’s greed, he wants the biggest profit possible and doesn’t give a damn about winning.
HEHEHATE – You do comprehend the financials of each organization? Right?
NY reduces profits when they spend WAY OVER THE CAP yet still make lots more than everyone else not name the Dodgers. That financial position gives them the luxury of being fat dumb and happy by spending whatever the fans want.
TB is the most over rated organization in baseball. The goal of KC, PIT and even TB is to win championships not take home playoff participation trophies. You don’t need to pat them on their backs, they do it to themselves constantly.
BAL and TOR don’t have the issues in NY and BOS so they compete but also don’t have the knowledge of how to win. I’m interested to see if BAL learned anything last year.
There are now two teams in the AL that will determine who is in the world series and that’s Texas and Houston. Texas has a new, outstanding GM and a great manager and coaching staff they are the team you should point to when suggesting someone does it right. NOT TB. Houston cheated to gain a great deal of their success but it worked. They tanked and did excellent drafting then they pounded the cans to create a big bad guy persona when it came to the playoffs. Most teams are flawed but the teams like the Rangers and Braves have a lot more going for them than the heavy spending LAD and NYY. BOS, was positioned perfectly to be a perennial threat when DD was GM and somebody stuck a pin in the baloon and it burst loadly and lost it’s air quickly. It’s a travestry for us Red Sox fans.
All – You keep saying this over and over and it’s wrong.
Money and wins are not related. There is no causal relationship that applies universally.
The evaluation of Talent is done by individuals who work for different organizations. Boston thought Bloom understood talent acquisition and they were wrong, he simply took credit for it. There is probably just one brilliant guy in TB that figures out how to move players to TB that will flourish once they arrive. Lots of people thought that might be Friedman but he’s just as big an idiot as Bloom when it comes to selecting draft picks and making deals. He stole Mookie from his protege so he might be far more unscrupulous than Bloom but he’s a lot like him from a knowledge standpoint. Without money, the Dodgers wouldn’t compete with TB but if you can spend a billion to fill your roster, you have an advantage.
Boston was set up ideally in 2016 because they brought in a knowledgeable GM who saw the holes and fixed them quickly and changed a team that finished last 3 of 4 years to a team that finished first 3 consecutive years which was unheard of in Boston history.
All it takes is near CAP funding which allows the organization to profit over $300MM per year and a GM who understands how to construct a winning roster. We had that and fired the guy and then gave away the generational face of the franchise. There is nobody to blame for the events since DD was fired except the owners. I guess 15 years was their max for success, it happens all the time. The Bulls couldn’t figure out how to keep a dynasty together. The Patriots couldn’t. I guess we should be thankful for the 15 year window but it’s hard to think that way since we waited 86 years for it.
Remember one key concept. It’s NOT the TB way or anything to do with their organization that keeps them competitive. They have the Acuna/Judge/Betts equivalent in their front office when it comes to identifying and acquiring elite talent at a young age.
All – Lets back up and start using some facts.
After a successful year in 2017 that ended when Houston cheated and knocked us out of the playoffs ownership was taking heat for their lack of diversity. In an interview during the fall of 2017 Henry and gang addressed the comments by saying we are moving to a much more diverse approach to hiring. Within two weeks Cora was hired and I never got the impression the removal of Farrell and replacement with the bilingual unqualified manager was his idea or something he wanted. The important thing to ownership was they got the media off their backs with the hiring of an unqualified manager who also happened to be a huge cheater.
The 2019 decision to fire DD had everything to do with him wanting to keep Boston on top by signing Mookie long term. Ownership wanted no part of it and he refused to yield because he came to build and sustain a winning team. They fired him. The players had NO SAY in the matter and why would they?
Go back to Cora’s APRIL 2018 interviews. He often said things like “I’m taking a page out of hinch’s book on this one”. That was in reference to building a wall calendar of who gets what days off. He never adjusted it for rain outs so Mookie and JD and Bogey sat way too many days in 2018. Even today, he’s still clueless about when to rest players and when to NOT REST players. He rests guys that are hot. He’s an idiot.
2019 is TOTALLY on CORA. DD’s firing is totally on ownership and their issues with Mookie. I don’t believe more wins in 2019 would have changed the firing. DD wanted Mookie and ownership didn’t.
Suit – The last thing Boston wants to do is mimic a loser.
You should move to TB and shine their participation trophies for them. I’d rather stick with Boston where RINGS were important for 15 years in each of the last two centuries.
KD: The Rays have won 99 games 2 of the last 3 years while spending much less than the Red Sox. Is a 99 win team a good team? The postseason is a crapshoot. Even a 3-0 series lead can be lost. Red Sox fans should know that.
“It’s NOT the TB way or anything to do with their organization that keeps them competitive.”
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Hilarious! Thanks KD.
GASF
“The rays also don’t take a nearly $20m underwater contract like JBJ to get lottery ticket prospects back.
At the same time, other big spenders like the dodgers and Yankees don’t do it either.”
The Dodgers absolutely did this
See the Dodgers acquiring Moorse and Arroyo in 2015.
Or Homer Bailey in 2018
Probably others I can’t think of now that don’t involve the Reds,
Using money to get talent is, you know, smart
As a Pittsburgh pirates fan that’s gone through the awful times of Andy Van Slyke, trading away Giles, cole, baz, glasnow etc, letting Bonds go, having Kendall’s contract as bench mark and sitting upper deck on opening day at the most beautiful park in baseball watching Sean Casey hitting the first home run in that stadium. I think I know two things.
1. Bad Baseball when I see it.
2. Final impact and limitations on organizations management, city, and ownership.
If reducing profits and still hitting the 4th tier of the luxury tax 3 years in a row at a 100% tax rate on 307 million is comprehending financial sustainability to me that’s laughable when you put that side to side on expectations vs results.
Where has the profit reduction come this season aside from playing chicken with Jordan Montgomery. They’ve added on Soto in a salary dump. Adding very under the radar moves to the bullpen, but payroll reduction and spending smart when you’re doubling down on sotos salary to begin with.
You can’t just spend to win. Which is why I give the early post realignment astros a lot of credit for making that roster from the ground up.
The Yankees really can’t do that in abundance anymore either with the reduction of minor league affiliates across the board now.
What you are as referring to as dumb money on smart spending I see as incompetent management/ownership and an organization full philosophical dysfunction. The Yankee baseball of yesteryears past just isn’t going to get things done. So we the people must all suffer from this. As a New York resident myself there’s nothing more that I want than that island of nonsense to be it’s own governing state at this point vs the rest of New York State itself.
You might view Tampa as overrated and that’s fine, but they’ve done a pretty decent job themselves from ring number 29. They’ve got a 200 million less payroll not paying luxury. They have a team ready to compete year in and out. More cheap pitching than they know what to do with and according to bleacher a top 10 farm system overall at 7 vs NY at 19.
Kc had a really good window and took advantage of that. Rip Ventura shout out while I can. The problem they have is fools faith but as an organization you’ve got to love that gusto from the organization.
Pittsburgh for the vast majority of my life time has been take the money collect the check and what you see is what you get. That narrative has vastly changed with cherrington putting his best efforts towards facilitating a solid playoff contending team going forward. He’s made one blunder two blunders this offseason. Signing Chapman and not signing Bauer. If any team can avoid the mass or hit its Pittsburgh.
Baltimore just went through a quiet ugly behind the scenes divorce that I’m shocked didn’t move them to Nashville outright over the media rights negotiations between Washington. Had new ownership made the move going into the offseason instead of after the dust settled this team could be taken more seriously. Just too much imbalance. They need to trade elite controlled hitting for counter part pitching. As much as I don’t want it happening holiday for Cabrera is the money move that should happen for both organizations.
Toronto hasn’t gotten a kick better to me. They’ve really just been kicking tires after being attached to anyone and everyone in previous off seasons. You’ve got to do better to make vlad want to stay cause Bo’s as good as gone his first chance.
Texas has been putting in decent work internationally over the years. They’ve been aggressive in the trade front in fa spending as well. So you got to give props due where they are due. Do I think it’s sustainable year in and out no, but you can attract a fa to that market much easier than ny playing daddy war bucks and then pricing themselves out on players.
Really don’t understand all the Tampa hate. Is it because they aren’t the diamond backs without a ring or that they don’t spend money foolishly to be in the same dumpster fire a lot of these teams are locked up on bad long term aging contracts. Development and evolution takes time especially when you’re starting from square one with established organizations.
Tampa deserves all the credit in the world for what they do are able to do how they do it despite the restrictions albeit self imposed against themselves. What they do need is a city that supports them. It’s not gonna be salt lake, but again Nashville makes a ton of sense for them regarding this.
Seeing DD go was a huge hit because he did a lot well and now Philly is reaping the rewards on that.
All in all I just think Yankee baseball is a think that should be left in the 80’s and 90’s but until cashman and Boone are out and gms and management justify the results it’s all for naught when it comes to them for me.
TF – Great post, but I disagree that Dombrowski would have still been forced out even if the team had made a postseason run in 2019.
Henry pivoted to cheapskate because the high payroll didn’t bring back any postseason revenue and ticket sales also nosedived in the second half of the season.
All – You should be a fan of the NYY, TB or LAD. That’s where participation trophies matter.
Ricky Bobby, if you ain’t first you’re last!!
If an organizational goal is not to WIN RINGS then it’s easy to rationalize your behavior with participation trophies.
If it wasn’t for Cora and the completely screwed up owners it would be a lot easier to be excited about being a Red Sox fan. Looking over the fence and seeing greener grass is not my thing. If you want to, that’s fine.
All – I’m telling you. There is no TB way, there is ONE GUY who is better at this than anyone else. If he gets hired by the CUBS it becomes the CUBS way.
The actual infrastructure and personnel are not significantly different that other organizations. The selection of key players is FAR SUPERIOR thanks to ONE GUY. If only our ownership had picked the right guy we wouldn’t be in this disastrous situation.
Fever – Stop drinking the coolaid. The high payroll was from Cherington not DD. The data is conclusive on that one.
Blame Cora if what you think happened happened but it didn’t. DD was all about Mookie. He wanted him back so they could continue to win and he was the face of the franchise and a top two player.
It’s that simple. Ownership got their panties in a bind over Mookie calling them racists and they wanted him out and DD emphatically said no. The parting was fast and clearly DD got a gag clause so the racism issue didn’t make the front pages.
KD: If you have anything to back up this one guy claim, I would be interested in it.
@rsu571- Last I checked, back to back last place finishes is bad, not to mention the last 3/4 years. You have to be able to compete in your division and if you are the worst in your division then you’re bad. This “best last place team” b.s. is getting old.
One reason was being stuck with Cora and not being able to choose your own guy.
Yea I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to say that Bloom was stuck with Cora as his manager and it appears this year at least Breslow is stuck with Cora. Ownership appears to have this weird relationship with Cora. A new GM should always be allowed to choose he wants as his manager you need that Synergy.
Yea I didn’t like the whole place holding of his job. It was a very weird an always situation. Bostons stuck with it, but they’d rather have their guy than go through the process all over again. Nothing against Cora as a manager, but I just would have cut ties for the sake of club house culture.
Hehe – Have you read the stories from Cora the past few days? Last year he was a mess, physically and mentally. He wasn’t focused, dedicated or driven and that’s why he lost the clubhouse and why the team totally collapsed after the trade deadline. It was very reminiscent of Tito’s last year in Boston.
It’s time for him to move on after this, his 6th season as Sox manager. Hopefully Tek will get the opportunity to replace Cora, I don’t see John Henry pursuing a big name manager.
Fever- where have you read those stories? I looked but didn’t find anything
Just another nothing burger post.
As they stated it “it’s a moot point “
Again, there is no update.
You have the Twins, Angels, Blue Jays, Rangers, Red Sox and a few others that have had owners and GMs blatantly state that they’re not looking to add anymore big free agents. I’m waiting for Boras to start crying and moaning how all the MLB teams are colluding against him and his clients.
He’s has a better shot arguing the CBT is anti-competitive preventing teams from signing them.
Oh that’s coming too. The man is going to complain soon enough.
Boras can complain, but the CBT was negotiated by the union. What Boras needs to do is better evaluate the market. And maybe not take the winter off.
@acoss, so when this crying you re waiting for happens over the 4 unsigned players, do you think he ll mention the roughly 170 MLB players he represents currently under contract??
Tigers3232,
Boras is a salesman, if it can get his clients signed, I really wouldn’t put it past him. His job is to get all his clients signed, but when he has four top free agents still on the market with Spring Training underway, all avenues can and will be explored. You can take that as a positive or negative, depends on your opinion.
Boras Corporation clients often go late into offseason early into Spring Training prior to signing. And these 4 in particular I kind of unique as there’s definitely some question marks on all.
I think if all 4 go into the season without signing, or even just two of them, Boras will start trying the collision route. I agree though, all four have questions surrounding them.
Absolutely right, Tigers3232.
If his asking price has not come down, how Bout the years involved
Say a two year deal
as years come down price per year goes up
lvd – I doubt he would accept fewer years, his value right now has never been higher and probably never will be.
What if they’re not worth that higher asking price?
I’m not getting my hopes up. I hope Red Sox Nation boycotts until the direction changes. This has been the most disappointing off-season they’ve had in my lifetime.
I would sooner boycott dumb big moves for the sake of big moves than this (though this is certainly uninspiring). I remember overpaying Lackey coming off of a good box score (but not in terms of his actual pitching) playoff game. I remember signing Crawford not because he fit (it was one of the worst-fitting signings between a team’s needs and what a player offers in MLB history) but because it represented a splash that the team had room to make. I remember adding Sandoval because the team felt the need to fill a hole at 3B and he was the best option (but, again, one with warts). And I remember taking on Story because if you squinted you could see how that might work out.
No thanks on any more of those. If the only notable options for the taking are bad overpays or overly imperfect fits, hold the money and look for something better. Maybe the owners simply want to draw in greater profits and so won’t even allow some decent-idea buys, but that’s not worse than bad buys.
If you are not willing to take chances on contracts then you minimize the odds of success. BTW, you won a WS with Lackey and won 2 more one year after jettisoning Crawford and then Panda. In a vacuum they were not great contracts but the big picture was success.
The big picture was success, which was achieved by jettisoning the bad signings? So signing bad contracts held the team back? Isn’t that what 571 is saying?
Excellent point, Stud! And teams can afford to make such mistakes.
When lackey got healthy he was great, and, his contract had him pitch a whole year at league minimum. The fact cherington traded that away is not the fault of the player, but, StL was VERY happy with what they got.
I remember signing Crawford not because he fit (it was one of the worst-fitting signings between a team’s needs and what a player offers in MLB history)
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I remember many RS fans were giddy with excitement getting Crawford & Gonzo. And all I thought was that we’d have been better off with Josh Willingham and Gonzo’s teammate Headley, both at far cheaper prices.
But a whole lot of RS fans have shiny object syndrome.
Joe – Wow you’re bashing your idol Theo, never thought I’d see the day.
You bashing Sox fans I always expect though.
That’s because he’s a yankees fan in a Sox uni, Fever.
Joe – Wow you’re bashing your idol Theo, never thought I’d see the day.
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LOL! You won’t understand this, but I give credit when credit is due, and blame when blame is due. Unlike you, I don’t believe that people are 100% correct or 100% wrong.
You bashing Sox fans I always expect though.
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Again, I don’t expect you to understand it, but some RS fans are complete idiots.
Orioles should offer 4 years and 80 Million and see if it’s accepted. If they would sign him they would be clear favorite to repeat as AL East champs and one of biggest favorites to win American League
If he were willing to sign for 4/80, he’d be signed.
gcg27 – Monty is probably looking for $25MM minimum per year for 5 or 6 years. The Rangers would have signed him by now if he would do a 2 year deal but it appears he wants longer.
SF needs him the most and should extend him to 5 or 6 years. They need him.
I was leaning toward the Mets as Jordan Montgomery’s likely destination this offseason, even more so after the recent shoulder ailment news regarding staff ace Kodai Senga.
Now I’m thinking the Red Sox might have the inside track, especially if Montgomery settles for a shorter term deal or one with player options. The revelation that Montgomery’s wife is doing a residency at a Boston hospital makes this scenario more plausible.
Asap – It’s not a revelation, it’s been discussed for months now.
And I’m not sure how much it would be a benefit for Monty. Sadly, lots of players have their Margo Adams during the season. Wade Boggs and Charlie Goodson certainly did.
Ha ha you’re the first person I’ve seen speculate that perhaps the player doesn’t see having his wife around all the time as a win. Good take
Bob – I’ve worked with a few guys that do everything they can to avoid their wives. Some guys working long hours in the office, others refusing to work remote because their wives were.
I just don’t think we can assume every player wants to see their wife all the time during the season. Perhaps call it Al Bundy Syndrome.
A mets team that said they weren’t overly concerned with contending this year lost thier best pitcher and that’s going to make them more likely to spend money? Seems like the exact opposite
And they would still be under 125 million payroll even if they sign him. Time to step up. Windows close fast
With Yankees in tax bracket of 110 percent and Texas maxed on spending especially with tv deal in flux it’s perfect time for Orioles to go all out especially with Burnes contract only for this year and Braddish and Means on the shelf
gcg – Means is back APR 15th.and Bradish is completely uncertain.
Texas wants a short contract with Monty, they have the money for 2024 but they have lots of young pitchers who will lower payroll in the future so a shorter contract is being sought from Monty.
If I were him, I’d go short and a chance at another ring over Boston or SF.
Just bring back Rich Hill for a 4th tour of duty in Boston and be done with it already
Imagine paying 150 M for this 31 y/o 4th starter who can’t miss bats and isn’t durable. Yikes
One of smell or Montgomery needs to sign to get the other to sign.
Just sign Bauer for 5m. Thank me later.
Yeah because he will be the final solution. Thank me later.
Perhaps not, but each of the pitchers behind him will perfect their spin rates and likely add more pitches to their arsenal.
Opinions may differ but Bauers a great pitcher still. That said, I think he has more to offer other pitchers than any traditional pitching coach.
Looking at FG, seems most of Boston’s top prospects are position players so they 100% need to look for rotation pieces. Montgomery would certainly help but they’re going to need more.
For the sake of fairness, I hope they all are forced to settle for less than their ridiculous aspirations.
MLB really needs to fix their broken free agency system. There’s a reason why it’s such a big hit in the NFL and such a dud in baseball. When you have the top free agents (except Ohtani) still unsigned and preseason has started, that’s a problem. MLB needs to incentivize teams to sign players early in the off-season and create a frenzy that fans will respond to. The current status quo is just awful, and one of the biggest culprits is Boras. Montgomery is supposed to be an ace, but whoever signs him, even if they sign him today, wouldn’t be able to start him opening day because he will be behind all the other pitchers in terms of conditioning. Fix it, Manfred.
@Cooadoj, Not that I completely agree with the sentiment, but is it all on Boras? IMonty or any player can go his agent and say, “whatever the best offer is, take it”
Boras can only ay his games because his clients let him.
I said Boras is one of the biggest culprits. I didn’t say he was the only culprit. But Boras intentionally drags negotiations into the start of the season for his biggest clients. That is a big problem, considering how long it takes for pitchers especially to ramp up to be ready for the start of the season. And there is no buzz or excitement for the fans, which is also a problem. MLB needs to take a hard look at how the NFL does things and start making some adjustments.
The reason that there is no free agent deadline is that the MLB Players Association won’t agree to it.
I would have to disagree on a Free Agent signing period. I don’t believe it’s good to rush anybody in trying to make a decision of that nature. What if players feel like they have to take the first offer? I could only see it hurting the player, rushing into something. And this slow period isn’t so bad. A signing can come down at any time. It’s called random gratification…you could log in at any time and possibly see a signing. But with a signing period, you would have huge gulfs of time where there is absolutely zero news. That’s way more boring than when anything can happen at any time. And to your point about pitchers not being ready, these guys hire coaches or are doing the work on their own at a high school mound or whatever. They are getting in shape and throwing, they don’t want to be behind.
Spot on, you ignorant son of a b. The way FA works now keeps fans engaged right up until ST. What the hell would we do for four months with a FA period that lasted a few weeks?
If Boston signs Montgomery why stop there? They could use another RH Outfield bat. Boston is only a last place team in a loaded division. They’re not that far from being a Wild Card contender if they get a pitcher.
its happening – Clearly you don’t like the young players. WOW. An OF bat? After we already got O”Neill? What .220 slugger do you want so we can say we have a power hitting right fielder?
To have a shot at the playoffs they need Devers at DH. Without that, none of the needed changes including his replacement will make a difference. This is an exceptionally bad pitching staff until two top end SPs are acquired. This team is a 65 win team as of today. It could make the playoffs with a new SP1 SP2 3B and lefty late inning reliever but that’s not likely to happen. Devers at 3B means no playoffs.
Troll free clearly you don’t see the makeup of the squad because at this time O’Neill is starting in LF.
That leaves Duran and some youngster named Wilyer Abreu in RF, both LH bats. What, a RH bat is somehow controversial to you? If you want Devers to DH that puts Yoshida (another LH bat) back in the OF. Which also means it would be YOU that dislikes the youngsters.
At this point Rafaela is going to be given every chance to win the every day job in center according to Cora. Abreu is ticketed for right field. There is no chance the out Duran in right. If Duran is healthy then he’s your starting left fielder assuming that Yoshida is the DH. O’Neil is going to play all three outfield positions and he will play a lot. We already know Cora likes to rest guys for no reason. The real odd man out is Refsnyder just don’t see a ton of at bats for him assuming both Rafaela and Abreu make the 26 man.
Bruin – Sorry you’re totally wrong on O’Neill. It’s been reported by multiple outlets that he is expected to be the fulltime LF. And he has virtually no experience playing CF or RF.
I think the logical approach would be to have Rafaela play the role of Kike, have him bounce between OF and IF. Duran will remain the CF unless they trade him.
Fever it’s possible but I think what happens with Rafaela determines who plays the majority time in left field. If Rafaela makes the big club out of spring training he starts in center Cora has already made that clear. That would move Duran to left and Abreu in right against righties. If Rafaela doesn’t make the big cluband starts in AAA then Duran starts in center and O’Neil starts in left. I think it comes down to Rafaela if he makes the 26 man he’s the centerfielder.
Bruin1012 – Cora is an idiot and NEVER makes things clear.
Rafaela is the Right Fielder as I have explained 100 times after you have dispersed your bad information.
Abreu is odd man out if they go by talent IF O’Neill can perform like years ago. Otherwise, O’Neill should be odd man out.
Taking off one of your two speedsters is a very short sighted move and Cora could do that because he is a known idiot.
Not putting Rafaela in the most challenging outfield position of Right Field is incredibly stupid so once again the odds of Cora doing it are high.
Who starts, who makes the roster and who plays 3B does not matter if Breslow can’t do his job more effectively.
They are all moot points.
You’re wrong as usual Rafaela is the Center Fielder period end of story if he makes the 26 man. Abreu plays right field the reason he played left mostly in Polar Park is because the big field is in left that’s where they wanted his arm but you apparently don’t know this probably never watched a game in Polar Park. I’m sorry I know legend in your own mind but even in Fenway center field is where the outfield field general plays.
Troll just because you explained it 100 times doesn’t mean it’s true. It’s just your opinion and I think (know) your opinion is wrong when it comes to Rafaela. He’s a centerfielder and a potential gold glove level defender in center. Yes it’s true Right Field in Fenway is probably the toughest right field defensively in baseball but you still have your perceived best defender in center because even in Fenway the most green to cover is in center. You trying to make Rafaela as the next Mookie has to be the only reason to throw him into right field. Mookie could of played center in fact he played far more center in the minors when he was transitioned to the outfield and would of been a centerfielder if they didn’t already have a potential gold glove centerfielder in JBJ. The Red Sox don’t have a defensive centerfielder even in the same breath at Rafaela therefore Rafaela plays center. You can spin it all you want but those are the facts and the reason that anyone who has clue and any manager would put Rafaela in center.
TrollFree, I think realistically, you’re going to have to live with Devers at 3B and Yoshida at DH. I know this may sound preposterous, but with a healthy Story playing SS the whole year, this could help stabilize Devers and his defense in a way. If those two can click, I think it can only help. Maybe having so many different SS’s out there caused Devers to do too much or in some way affected his defense for the worse. Just trying to find a silver lining here lol.
Ignorant – I’ll go with preposterous. Devers sucked on defense at age 16 if you look at his fielding at the Dominican Baseball Academy. He sucked all through the minors and he actually got worse when he arrived in the majors prematurely. It’s been a decade of stink. To suggest anything will change that is absurd or the definition of insanity.
As a young child, Devers’ parents rolled him a ball and it went right through his legs and his legend was established.
Although the Boras-4 would bring excitement and increase the teams odds of winning. What are the chances that any of these players don’t live up to the extra years that they want at back end of their contract?
Good..but that can be said for any mlb contract beyond 3 years
This time of season the benefits of a short term deal are diminishing. ST games have started. Any pitcher not signed at this point will most likely not be ready for start of the season.
Sox blew the window to compete this year, most likely end in last place. Just stick with the kids and let them play the full year. Let’s see what they can show for years to follow.
What makes you think they won’t be ready? They can work out on their own, hire coaches, or borrow the mound at the local high school. They have been thru the routine before, know their bodies, and so would know precisely what they need to do for themselves to be ready.
Please sign this guy…will instantly infuse some life in the team and offseason even if his addition alone would be meh for the most part aside from being a nice rotation piece locked in beyond 2024 when they “plan” to compete
If the O’s want to add a starter, they will make a push for Montgomery at the right time/price. I’d be shocked if they bring in Bauer and all of his baggage into a young clubhouse.
Have to agree about Bauer, however much he could teach them youngsters.
Montgomery would make for a good middle reliever/swingman on the Dodgers. They might as well step up and sign him since everyone else is clipping coupons and waiting for double coupon day.
Or key rotation piece when one of glasnow,bhueler or Kershaw (ohtani is already out)end up on the IL based on all thier career track records..its amazing how much faith dodger fans have in that rotation based on thier collective history..or..lackthereof of health
Lol not even the dodgers are paying that kind of money for a swingman reliever/spot starter role.
Dodgers need Snell and Montgomery. They could just defer most of the contracts.
Montgomery is not a reliever. He would choose his next contract for a team where he could be the #2 or #3 starting pitcher in that team’s rotation. Why would he settle for anything less, much less become a reliever…makes zero sense.
Hey Monty, do you want to play baseball this year?
Clevinger would be a nice addition to the Red Sox
The Sox will need to add an ace if they want to get back into contention in the AL East. It bodes well for the ultimate success of Craig Breslow that he is holding to his position and not succumbing to Boras. Montgomery is a good pitcher and would surely help the Red Sox, but he’s no ace.
So all of the unsigned guys don’t get to play this year now that the season started? Is that how it works? I’m new to this.
Actually they hold out until June and still get top dollar.
Don’t think Giolito is an upgrade on Sale.
Nope.
Well, one pitches.
One doesn’t.
Probably why they’re getting that
Full Throttle!
Hahaha.
Bring out the duckboats.
Hahaha.
Full Throttle!
Hahahaha
Behind Snell and Montgomery, no mention of the best available starting pitcher, he being Trevor Bauer.
Wish MLBTR writers had the courage to admit as much.
Don’t forget about the best young up and comer Wander “16 candles” Franco.
The fans are pissed off enough at the Red Sox, you think they want even more grief?? Signing Bauer would be them shooting themselves in the foot, five times.
I understand your take, ignorant sob, but I thoroughly disagree.
I think us Sox fans can judge the merits of Bauers case (that was dismissed after accuser admitted making it up).
Ownership just isn’t willing to spend this year we have known this for a while they’re just now coming out and confirming. I guess if his price drops low enough they will green light the expenditure but if Boras and Monty are holding out for top dollar then he he’s not coming to Boston.
The Red Sox aren’t going to add anyone but prospects maybe ready for the big club. They’ll look to dump any veteran they feel is replaceable. I hope Henry sells and soon. His little group took on way more than they could swallow and the pandemic crushed them more than they’ll ever say out loud.
When the Pirates are outspending you, there’s something very deep and dark going on.
Some People said to fired Alex Cora I believe he isn’t the problem his record as manager on 6 years is: W438 vs L367 any of you remember this 2 season
2018 = W108 L54 with a Good Team (franchise-best)
2021= W92 L70 on his return and we make the playoffs, everybody talk great about him
Last 2 season same record W78 L84 with all the limitations of this ownership well we know now, let’s be honest I think this Team will make him manager of the year nobody will bet on this guys and that will be enough to prove everybody wrong and show how Good he could be and that will open the door upstairs with ownership that’s why they don’t talk about extending the contract, so for that reason I believe he is the perfect man for this job and for us as Fans. BTW this team will surprise you, copy this and repaste it on Oct
You’re trolling right? Is this part of your new comedy routine?? I would say it needs some work.
NE – Small tidbit about winning. It comes from talent NOT THE MANAGER.
The Red Sox should have won 120 games in 2018 but Cora was directly responsible for losing 12 games by making bad decisions on who rested that day and who pitched.
CORA IS THE WORST MANAGER OF ALL TIME. Why? Because he’s a convicted cheater and actually committed the crime against baseball multiple times. He has no integrity and he is an embarrassment to all former players.
Winnign 30 games would surprise me but the odds of a surprise is very unlikely. If you can smell the stench, usually you know something stinks!!! Thus, no surprises.
Is the BoSox biggest problem today its corporate multi-pronged sports ownership — they made Liverpool a multiple champion in footie, they won multiple World Series with their micro ballpark in Boston, they compete weekly for most of the year in various racing endeavours with multiple teams across NASCAR, and build engines for others. So the challenge is when do they go all-in with any one endeavour and what is the incremental benefit to Fenway corporate to win a few more baseball games vs the cost? Will $20 million spent on a pitcher be worth more than $20 million spent on top soccer players or racing engine builders? Does baseball suffer because of its cost structure?
This challenge is often used to blast corporate ownership in sports. The Dodgers have had a rag-tag ownership history since the O’Malley’s and despite being treated as the Tiffany of baseball clubs have won only one WS since the 1980s. How much is ownership turmoil and turnover to blame and how much will that continue as paying the Ohtani piper nears in next decade? ‘Win now’ will become a heavier burden every time they don’t. Races have to be run, but race teams, especially when they build engines for dozens of others, can be very profitable even when you don’t win. Liverpool has won it all in past decade, how much more profit can be derived from doing it again. Or do you sell high? And when you own half of NESN and profit with every bodycheck by the Bruins and home run by the Sox what’s the incentive to dump those hard-earned bucks back into baseball — when your little park is always full anyway.
Toronto Blue Jays owners are also corporate and also own a major TV sports network (and radio network, and cable and cell networks), and also co-own Toronto’s NHL team, their NBA team, their football and soccer teams, and their playing venues. Fans say they don’t invest enough in baseball but are at record levels and close to being taxed (and they’ve just upgraded their fully-owned dome in Toronto and their training mecca in Florida). But all of the Toronto ownerships endeavours are in a North American sports world they broadcast, cablecast or stream. So an integrated revenue stream. It’s a corporation, but controlled by a family, and ultimately one man — Ed Rogers. Whereas Fenway has multiple big name owners, including one who puts his neck on the NASCAR line weekly.
Thoughts?
Pinkston- the problem is simplified:
Henry has been bringing in investment groups who aren’t interested in the ‘prestige’ because they own a tiny fractional interest – they’re interested in ROI, dividend payouts on their shares in the conglomerate. That’s proven by the presence of sports venture capital firms like Redbird, arctos, etc.
The fact Henry is not done trying to add new sports to the crown of his conglomerate means he needs to keep those investors happy. If they’re unhappy, word gets out. And if the ROI doesn’t remain high, and proven, it’s a less attractive investment vehicle for others in the future, and THAT would impact funding raises for a NBA or NFL franchise, among others.
Meanwhile, he is trying to make sure he piggybanks enough cash for himself so that as he adds these new ventures he can push more of his own money in each time so his own shares in FSG don’t become too diluted, and, subject to being kicked to minority owner status.
These are all reasons the cash payouts to fsg shareholders need to be maintained at a high level
If Boston is going to sign a remaining big name I would hope it would be 28 year old Bellinger. Him and Dever hitting back to back for the next 6 years would be fun.
If you really want to guarantee Bellinger 6 years after one good season out of like 4
Down – It’s not a crime to be a Bellinger fan but it should be!!!
We had Verdugo we don’t need Bellinger.. Lesson learned.
“It seems to be a moot point for now as the asking price has not dropped.” The real moot point is that the asking price has not dropped because if he were going to get it he’d have gotten it by now.
Fans: SPEND!!
Breslow: On who?
Fans: We don’t care, just SPEND!!!!!
pz: A+ man, I agree. The Red Sox hot stove could have been worse, there could have been bad costly signings like in recent years – e.g. Devers bloated albatross.
baseballteam – I consider Devers, Story and Yoshida as albatross contracts due to the number of years but the recent Giolito and O’Neill contracts are not just bad but they reduced available payroll to get what we actually needed. Toss in the $17MM for Grissom and waste is a constant with the GMs in Boston lately.
As a baseball fan, I am sick of Scott Bore-my-Ass. What used to be a fun time, the hot stove, is now a total non-event. There should be a rule if a FA is not signed by February 1, they are not eligible until July 1, maybe there would be some action again.
It will never happen because the greed involved is immense.
I think Judge getting traded has a higher chance of happening than Montgomery going to the Sox.
Bauer, Urias and Clevinger are all out there and are probably cheaper than you think. Bauer and Urias have no legal issues anymore.
Goose – POST OF THE DAY!!!!!
We have Cora so Bauer and Urias are minor issues in comparison.
Those two would put the Red Sox in the hunt for the playoffs but Devers would still need to move to DH before they would have a legitimate chance.
Goose, it’s not about their legal issues it’s about their character issues.
GRNMTNYETI = Can’t argue character issues and have Cora as the manager. Character means nothing to these owners or the front office.
I wholeheartedly agree, troll. cora has no character and should be banned for life for his major role in the worst cheating scandal in the history of the game.
Whomever gives Montgomery a 5-6 year deal around $30 million a year will regret it completely
Montgomery is not worth projected contract levels. 10 game winner with 3 good months. Can he help?…sure… but not at these prices. He’s at best a #2 and more likely a #3.
butch – His spot in the rotation is always subject to the others on the staff. If Sale and Price were here like in the old days he’s clearly a #3 but if you have Giolito and Bello, he’s a #1.
He’s an above league average pitcher. He’s a #2 at best in my eyes as we seek top of the rotation help. Bello is a fine #3 and Gio can work as a #4 or #5 (pretty expensive at $20MM a year.
They need a lefty so he’s a solid #2 for Boston at $22MM to $25MM per year for 5 years. I still think he would be crazy to join the chaos that is the Boston Red Sox.
I just took a look at the schedule and it shapes up very similar to last year.
In 2019 Cora’s Spring Training pitching screw-up combined with the opening of the year out west buried the team by mid April. That could happen again in 2024. Four games in Seattle to start the year with their pitching should be a huge challenge for the weak rostered Red Sox.
The good news is April is filled with bad and mediocre teams so they might no be devastated by May 1. BUT, once May starts, stick a fork in them. and they don’t even get the Yankees by then. May is filled with 7 games vs TB, 3 games wtih BAL and 2 with ATL. The others aren’t terribly tough but a winning record is likely to happen in April. The other months, forget about it. June will be a disaster. July won’t be terrible because the all-star game reduces the number of games and many are against weak teams. August and September will be ugly.
Without pitching, I can’t see this team beating 65 wins. Adding one starter won’t get them to 81. Two starters, however, will get them to the high 80s and Devers at DH could get them to the mid 90s. It’s all on Breslow.
Chewing the fat here, nothing new!
At some point the players tell Boras I want to sign, I’m not missing camp and this whole thing gets ushered along.
Missing camp has very little to do with a player looking to sign for $$ Multi Millions and multi year contracts…..once they do sign, they’re making money…..do you really think that missing Spring starts means anything with money and years at stake…..don’t think so….if his first start is in May or even June Monty or Snell doesn’t really care…..
How many millions less will Montgomery take to pitch in Boston during his wife’s residency? The fact that he’s still a free agent and Boras is his agent indicates he’s going for the most money. Residents work ridiculous hours. He’s barely going to see her as is. She selected her residency not knowing where he was going to be pitching.
The team that gets him will be the team that pays the most.
Lord – I don’t think the residency makes a bit of difference since the players are home so little and when they are she’s likely working. Anywhere in the NorthEast is probably better than the West Coast but I really don’t think that’s a big factor in his decision.
Monty is going to want a winning team, a clearly defined role, good pitching coaches and an organization that treats it’s players well.
That’s not Boston.
Boras will need to build a Spring Training Complex for his unsigned FA’s soon.
2 words:
Trevor Bauer.
I’m interested in others’ thoughts on whether the Boras batch and other unsigned FAs are losing value now that they ‘ve missed some Spring Training and will likely miss more.
How many season starts, if any, will pitchers and hitters miss?
Has anyone read about or heard of their non-ST home base training regimes?
If they haven’t lost value by now, when will they start losing value?
Any grumblings about agents?
Sign already
The BoSox haven’t built up their core enough to optimize free agency.
I really like Montgomery as a sp but he and Boras need to be realistic about his value. All his numbers last three years, which are solid, are in line w Bassitt, Stroman, Eovaldi. So the 6/150+ he’s looking for prob wont happen. 5/100-110? Maybe someone will go there
Oakland should sign them 1 year cheap. Get them in shape, trade them at deadline for those in need during stretch run. Rebuild their whole farm system. Of course even cheap, Oakland couldn’t afford a half year salary for one or each of them.
Bauer and Monty.
FYI for those that didn’t follow this story over the two years. He was not charged, so not found guilty either. During court proceedings over damages, it was eventually revealed that the accuser preplanned the entire incident for financial gain, even confiding in others she would do it, and video surfaced of her unharmed on that day while with Bauer, only to have the injuries after leaving. Her accusation fell apart, and the matter was dropped entirely with nearly no coverage from our media while he was banished to Japan.
This was the major incident that caused his suspension, and black balling by MLB. He is a handful, but he is talented, and the reason that nearly everyone gives for calling him a monster is nonexistent. I see a lot of misinformed people still claim HE DID WHAT HE DID NOT DO. This guy’s career was completely train wrecked by a woman that attempted to blackmail him for money and have him incarcerated when it didn’t work, hoping for civil damages.
“The rulings that the judge made in the case against Lindsey Hill, before it was settled, brought front and center the idea that actually there was no judicial conclusion. His quote was: “The state court proceedings (the restraining order hearing) did not necessarily decide that Bauer did not batter or sexually assault Hill.” He said: “Notwithstanding Hill’s consent to some form of rough sex, Bauer engaged in acts while Hill was unconscious, when she was physically and legally unable to give consent.”“
grn – Think about how clouded this whole situation was. A person agrees and says yes you can hit me as part of contracted physical encounter which also includes strangling and if strangled it could lead to the person being temporarily unconscious but that is known ahead of time. It’s not the first time nor will it be the last time the person who does this for a living chooses to engage in such a contract.
I think a fair judge who recognized that the person’s profession is doing this type of behavior should recognize many aspects of the sheer act can create a state of unconsciousness and that it probably happens on a regular basis. So did the excessive activity happen while conscious, while unconscious or both? How is this not a he said she said scenario with one person being a habitual customer of the service and the other being a habitual provider of the service..
Obviously when you are unconscious you can’t give consent and that is why the contract is designed to cover that scenario. When the unconscious happens from strangling or punching or any other means deemed within the scope of the contract, the potential of one party to become unconscious is a given. So if those were the expectations of the contract and they were agreed to, there should have been no issue legally just morally.
Think about the many punishment oriented sports. A punch to the face is known to cause damage yet the sport is allowed to be conducted under a binding contract. Unfortunately, the same legal argument holds. If he had stabbed her and that wasn’t in the contract then all this makes legal sense but he hit her as they agreed upon and she saw dollar signs thanks to some acquaintances. Those advisors to the woman destroyed Bauer’s career because as outsiders they didn’t like what happened to their friend while she was doing her job and proposed an action that would somehow right the situation. Would they cash in on the windfall money? I’m guessing they hoped for that but even if they didn’t, the idea that she was unconscious should have been expected based on the nature of what they were about to do. If that was a concern, then it should have been stipulated in the contract. Obviously it wasn’t based on the judge’s comments so ruling in a vacuum without recognizing that the unconscious state was part of the paid for activities is short sighted by the judge.
I don’t condone the activity but I do condone Bauer’s civil liberties to participate in a legally binding contract that may bring harm to one of the parties. It’s the essence of sports so it’s not a male vs female thing. Society accepts physical violence against others under the guise of sports. The MLB response was gross extrapolation of the CBA content.and should have never happened. If a player gets embarrassed publicly by private actions he considered private at the time they happened then he must live with the consequences and the public shaming is significant. The excessive punishment by the commissioner was a hero move on his part in hopes of making the HOF and being considered a good guy who did right by public opinion. To hell with the CBA, this guy wants the HOF so he bent the rules using the support of the owners who pay him!!!. .
That was what happened in court for the criminal trial. What I referred to was after that trial when Bauer and his attorney were finally allowed to get communications from her for a civil trial (it took them nearly 2 years to get her phone records with video, texts, calls, and audio).
It showed she planned to do what she did, discussed it with others, and was perfectly fine the night she claimed it happened and also during the morning before she left. She was dumb enough to save her communications and the video she made of herself that morning and later during the next day. She was fine.
william-2 = Didn’t know that. Just confirms what I thought. Makes the commissioner look like a bigger jerk than he already is!!!
The length of the ban and punishment was obviously based more on what the league thought than what actually happened.
I think the league showed their personal bias towards Bauer in every aspect of his case. They do not like Bauer because he speaks his mind, and in a lot of circumstances those opinions placed MLB in a bad light. Remember, he was the reason for the substance ban, and he has spoken several times about the league allowing certain pitchers to cheat even after the ban. He won a Cy Young blatantly using sticky stuff to prove his point. He said he would, he did, and he was the Cy Young because of it. It forced their hand. Again, Bauer made the league look bad and was the single biggest reason for a major rule change that affected people’s perception of how the league handles cheating, punishments, and how the league deals with large contract pitchers vs low contract pitchers differently.
It was not an accident that the year after they instituted the sticky ban that certain pitchers spin rates that plummeted are right back up again.
The result was the largest ban ever despite questions about the case, and no guilty verdict. THEY decided he had not only done what was accused to this woman, but it deserved being extended over and over again beyond the initial ban. The fact that it was retroactively diminished was meaningless. He was blackballed by teams (a Cy Young winner). Even after it was discovered that the woman planned to blackmail Bauer, we saw no public statement of apology, and we can assume that MLB is still exerting pressure on teams to not sign him (a Cy Young winner).
Regardless of my personal opinion on the matter, or my opinion on him being so outspoken, if people truly believe in due process this was a terrible situation where innocent until PROVEN guilty was completely disregarded. IF he was found guilty, or the league knew the accusations to be true but not punishable in court they penalty would be justified. It was neither proven by the court or the league, as we learned recently, and the punishment still has not been addressed by the league. They know they got it wrong and still will not admit it.
Between the “me too” movement and the leagues animosity, MLB decided to err on the side of perception.
William2 – Excellent and well written.
Full Throttle! ahahahha
Break out the Duckboats ahahahah
Icon – Just finished my annual estimate by series, I knew you would be excited!!!
Lets start with a break down of the difficulty by month:
March/Apr – 32 Games – 3 vs Good, 17 vs Medium and 12 vs Bad
May – 28 games – 12 vs Good 13 vs Medium and 3 vs Bad
June – 24 games – 17 vs Good 3 vs Medium and 4 vs Bad (OUCH!!)
July – 24 games – 9 vs Good 6 vs Medium and 9 vs Bad
Aug – 29 games – 23 vs Good 3 vs Medium and 3 vs Bad (double OUCH!)
Sept – 25 games – 16 vs Good 6 vs Medium and 3 vs Bad
Projections by month
March/Apr – 16 wins and 16 losses
May – 9 wins and 19 losses
June – 9 wins and 15 losses
July – 11 wins and 13 losses
Aug – 11 wins and 18 losses
Sept – 10 wins and 15 losses
Projection is 66-96 with the following break down
VS AL East 17-35
VS the rest of the teams 49-61
VS GOOD TEAMS – 77 games 23-54
VS MEDIUM TEAMS – 48 games 21-27
VS BAD TEAMS – 37 games 21-16
The projections by month include all series starting in that month so don’t point out that the total for the ACTUAL month is wrong because this is a series based analysis.
Some base assumptions include who is good, medium and bad.
Here is the breakout:
Good includes NYY, BAL, TB, BAL, LAD, PHI, SD, ATL, TEX, HOU,and ARI
Medium includes SEA, CLE, CHC, SF, MIN, STL, MIL, DET, CIN and NYM
Bad includes OAK, LAA, PIT, CWS, KC, OAK, COL
We need more talent to better compete with the AL East teams and to dominate the bad teams even more. The medium teams are the most difficult to predict so for the most part if you are at home you win 2 of 3 and if you are on the road you lost 2 of 3. Four game series are split.
I knew it was going to be ugly because the AL East should beat us up again and this time it’s not as likely we will do so well against NYY and TOR. The 9-4 and 7-6 records far exceeded the project 4-9 for both series. The 16 wins vs those two teams accounted for the variance in the system that projected 74 wins. We won four more than the prediction and the two match-ups added 8 wins so the rest of the series we four games under the predictions. NYY with Soto should give us a more normal series total. TB beat us 11 of 13 games and that number should drop in 2024.but only by one game. TB owns Boston since DD left.
It’s always fun to see how the season is going to go and it appears we should have a decent start and be buried by the all-star game, kinda like every year since 2019 except 2021.
I commend you for taking the time to do that. It is well thought out, and I would think done trying to take any bias out, just working on the numbers.
I think the Red Sox are an AL east last place team barring another team getting markedly worse beyond what anyone projects. They lack the talent to truly compete for a post season entry, and I feel the lack of moves clearly indicate that the brass has embraced that end to the season before it begins.
I think it was a rational conclusion they made. I do think they should have made at least one long term pitching move thinking towards the future for a two-year time period before they begin to compete, but they decided/hoped that they could wait and hopefully land at least one or two elite pitchers in those next two years while they get their house in order, while taking more advantage of those long-term contracts having more years during that competitive time period.
Although those projections may turn out being right, I think they will outperform those estimates. I expect a little improvement defensively (not much but noticeable) and I think we will see a little bit of progress with the younger guys. I think the rotation will end up having close to the same results, which were not good, and barring salary dumps, the bullpen should be about the same also (also not very good). I think despite losing power we are already lacked, and no marked improvements anywhere on the pitching side, we should be able to remain within a few wins of last year’s results. I see some teams on paper regressing we play, and with a balanced schedule the bludgeoning we would have taken with the old schedule being lessoned. I don’t have a record for you based on the kind of work you did, but I would guess about 75 wins based on our health. If there are any major injuries to even 2 or 3 players, we can easily slide down to what you project imho (we do not have enough talented depth to replace anyone, especially on the pitching side). I am hoping we do not. Regardless, it’s a last place finish. We are simply dealing with where we land with a high draft pick.
William2 – A couple of things to note. The non AL East Games have more medium and high opponents than last year. I think that impacts the totals to some degree. Also, I have upgraded NYY vs BOS match-ups because I think we are weaker and they are stronger.
So my thoughts on why it turned out 8 games lower than last year is we lost Justin Turner who had the best season of all the hitters. We didn’t fix the defense. We have far less pitching in the starting rotation and the relief isn’t quite as good either. 8 games isn’t a big drop off but it does reflect a lesser team in 2024 AS OF TODAY. These series predictions will be updated should Breslow get off his butt and do his job.
I believe the 66 win season will put us around the 8th draft pick.
VS GOOD TEAMS – 77 games 23-54
VS MEDIUM TEAMS – 48 games 21-27
VS BAD TEAMS – 37 games 21-16
===========================
65-97
So in my annual rite of Spring, I will offer to wager that you will be, once again, wrong.
And, as always, I assume you will decline.
Joe – I actually went back and upgraded one series by one game in favor of Boston that’s why the top says 66-96 but the summary did not get adjusted up one game.
66-96
It’s not a bet it’s the same formula I have used for years and published in the last several years and you always want to bet me as if it’s a prediction of mine.
It’s a series by series analysis that acts as an initial estimate to the strength of the team versus it’s schedule. Put your huge ego aside and stop trying to turn this into some type of contest.
You don’t have to agree or disagree. The data shows the issues in place for the coming season. An easy start, and 3 months of really challenging opponents.
The above information is like a budget not a bet. It’s to be tracked and evaluated for it’s accuracy. Last year TOR and NYY proved to be easier than predicted and the system was four wins short of what happened. Similar results happened in 2022. 2021 was the sole year where the estimate was significantly off thanks to JD, Bogey and Nate. Use it or don’t use it. It’s up to you. Think of it as foreshadowing the season.