While the Red Sox indicated early in the offseason that addressing the starting rotation would be a priority for the club this winter, it seems they’ll go into the 2024 season having only swapped out Chris Sale for Lucas Giolito, at least barring a late bid for Jordan Montgomery. Should the club stick with its internal options for the rotation mix, Sean McAdam of MassLive relayed comments from manager Alex Cora regarding the state of the rotation yesterday. Per McAdam, Cora suggested that right-handers Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, and Nick Pivetta are all locked into the rotation to open the season. Meanwhile, McAdam adds that Cora indicated Kutter Crawford would have a “leg up” over each of Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, and Josh Winckowski in the battle for the final two rotation spots.
That Giolito and Bello are locked into rotation spots entering the season is hardly a surprise, given the pair are the only two hurlers on the club’s staff to make at least 25 starts last year. Likewise, it’s hardly a surprise to hear that Whitlock, Houck, and Winckowski are under consideration for a role at the back of the club’s rotation. Each righty made at least one start for the club last year and the trio of young hurlers all figure to be key pieces of the club’s pitching plans this season, whether in starting roles or in relief.
That being said, it’s something of a surprise that Cora indicated Pivetta has a more firm grasp on a rotation spot than Crawford. The 31-year-old Pivetta was dominant for the Red Sox in a multi-inning relief last year with a 3.05 ERA in 55 2/3 innings of work, while he pitched to a far more pedestrian 4.66 ERA in sixteen starts in 2023. Crawford, by contrast, Made 23 starts for the Red Sox last year and pitched to a 4.20 ERA with an excellent 3.64 FIP after joining the rotation full time in early June. Cora’s characterization of Crawford’s position in the rotation mix also represent a slight departure from comments chief baseball officer Craig Breslow made last month, where he suggested that Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, and Crawford all were set to enter camp as members of the rotation.
More from around Red Sox camp…
- Right-hander Bryan Mata has been shut down due to a pulled hamstring, Alex Cora told reporters (including MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) this morning. A timetable for Mata’s return is not yet clear. The 24-year-old right-hander has not yet made his big league debut but figured to enter Spring Training with a strong chance to earn a job in the club’s bullpen this spring. Mata does not have options remaining, meaning that he must be carried on the club’s active roster or else designated for assignment and exposed to waivers, running the risk that a rival club would claim him. If Mata’s absence proves to be a lengthy one, of course, he could open the season on the 15- or 60-day injured list, thereby delaying the need for Boston to make a decision regarding his future.
- WEEI’s Rob Bradford spoke to outfielder Masataka Yoshida today, and Yoshida revealed that he underwent surgery on his jaw shortly after the 2023 season. According to Yoshida, the issue didn’t “necessarily” impact him from a baseball perspective during the 2023 season, though he noted that the surgery alleviated discomfort that nagged him during everyday use of his jaw. Yoshida appeared in 140 games for Boston during his first MLB season last year, slashing a respectable .289/.338/.445 in the first year of his five-year, $90MM pact with the Red Sox. Yoshida figures to look to improve on his 2023 campaign this season after he slowed down a bit in the second half last year, slashing just .254/.278/.386 over his final 62 games after entering the All Star break with an excellent .316/.382/.492 slash line.
Sign Montgomery and trade Jansen. Houck, Whit and Wink all have done a lot better in the bullpen. A rotation of Monty, Gioloto, Bello, Crawford and Pivetta would be competitive and so would our bullpen with said names.
Agree
110% agree. And the offense as constructed is good enough to contend for a wildcard… Sign Montgomery NOW Craig
Millar, ownership not Breslow is at issue.
Milar – The offense isn’t very good. No JT hurts since he was in the middle of all the 2023 production and by far the most consistent.. Duran needs to repeat, Casas needs to repeat his second half and Devers has to pretend he is a quality hitter now that he lost JD and Bogey. The catchers and Story can’t put up 80 OPS+ numbers again. Guys like Rafaela and Anthony will need their opportunities to grow in 2024. Abreu needs to keep playing way over his abilities and O’Neill needs to find the fountain of youth along with Giolito.
Offense is NOT good enough as constructed. It’s by far the worst in the AL East where they play 1/3 of their games. We may beat the CWS and KC teams but LAD, TEX and HOU will kick the crap out of us.
There won’t be a sub 90 win team in the AL Playoffs in 2024. The Red Sox need to add enough talented all-star type players to go from 66 wins to 90. Two SP1s and a 3B could do it but anything short of that won’t get you much above .500 and definitely won’t get you a playoff spot..
BRESLOW needs to stop sitting on his hands and do something!!!!
All this talk about trading Jensen, but who really desires him? Good luck, RSox.
Don – Fair, I doubt his market is more than a couple teams. The reason I want him traded isn’t necessarily for a return as much as it is to get some salary relief for the Sox new found cheapness. With that in mind, I could see the Dodgers throwing us a lottery ticket with cash and we can chalk it up as addition by subtraction. Side note, does it irk anyone else that Jansen cannot hold a runner on first to save his life?
Seriously. Another Bloom fup. Yeah let’s sign a closer with the slowest time to the plate with a heart condition to boot right after MLB institutes a pitch clock.
Wake me up when the Red Sox stop being stoopid.
NY – Nobody is gonna touch jansen until he proves to be healthy and effective again.
Fever – Great comment but it kinda holds true for EVERY player!!
Jansen is an opportunity deal waiting to happen. Closers get hurt all the time. If it’s the right closer, Jansen’s money will get moved if Breslow doesn’t reach for his gun and shoot himself in the foot again like he did with Sale. If he does a buy down, he wasted the opportunity.
Pivetta was lights out once going to the pen and the Sox are likely either auditioning to see if a new deal should be considered or more likely going to deal him if he continues like last year ended. Could be a valuable deadline trade chip.
Actually Nick Pivetta was lights out when he started using that sweeper. Once he added that pitch to his mix it really completed his pitch mix. When he went back to the rotation for the last 5 games he was really good as well. It will be interesting to see if he can continue and maybe even up the usage of that pitch to increase his effectiveness.
Bruin1012 – When a pitcher adds a new pitch, just like EVERYTHING in baseball, the opposition has a lag time in figuring out when he’ll throw it and how to hit it.
Pivetta is pitching for a contract so he should have a decent year but he is still a #4 or #5 SP with or without the pitch.
Nick Pivetta has been a decent innings eater at the back of the rotation. He’s been very reliable health wise and he takes the ball. The problem is he was a fastball, curveball guy and didn’t have an East to west pitch. The introduction of the slider/sweeper changed all that for him. He now has a pitch that is totally different then his typical north south arsenal. He was really good even in September when the Red Sox faced really stiff competition and he was put back in the rotation. It’s possible that the development of that pitch turns him into a completely different pitcher. I know I don’t have to tell you if batter only has to be looking for pitches up or down in the zone and not side to side it’s a lot easier to time and put good swings on. He really started using that sweeper when he went to the bullpen and it changed him. His line of 12.36 k per 9 and 2.76 bb per 9 his .95 whip every pitching stat you can see was elite. When he went back into the rotation for the brutal September stretch he was even better with an 11.3 k per 9 1.48 bb per 9 whip of .82 really every pitching stat says he finished that September elite. Just watching the games he was different pitcher after the introduction of that pitch. Only time will tell but if he can be extended at a decent cost I think it’s worth it. The very least you have a back of the rotation innings eater that has now shown the potential for much more then that..
Yoshida “slowed down” in the 2nd half because pitchers figured out he can’t hit a slider or a cutter.
Or he slowed down due to the grind of MLB. Travel is far different here. I believe he will have a great year at the plate but having him, Duran and Devers all in the field will cost the team big time.
Dewey – Great post but you meant Casas instead of Duran, correct?
Fever – also don’t forget, small sample at mlb level, but, grissom has been error prone himself….
GASox – Yep, I heard he kinda sucked at SS so they moved him to 2B and he wasn’t all that great there either so the Braves were gonna play him in the OF.
Okay not sure where to put this, so I’ll put it here:
The Red Sox have become even cheaper than you’d ever imagine.
You know how every team has certain games where they have giveaways at the gate, like bobbleheads or shirts or hats etc?
The Red Sox apparently have concocted a plan to increase attendance by having these promotions, but there’s a catch. Only fans who buy directly from the Red Sox as a “promotional ticket” are entitled to the promotional giveaway …. and it doesn’t cost the Red Sox a dime, because they add $10 to the price of each “promotional ticket”. So what has ALWAYS been free giveaways in the past is no longer free …. they tack on the $10 and assume nobody knows it. How did I confirm it? As a test, I selected the exact same seat and game twice, once as a regular ticket and once as a promo ticket. That’s how I confirmed the promo ticket costs $10 more. They gave Jimmy Buffett souvenirs today, and a ton of fans were PISSED that they didn’t get one because they didn’t buy their seats as a promo ticket.
Sure they say a “portion” of the promo proceeds goes to charity …. wanna bet it’s a lot less than the fee they are charging minus the cost of the souvenir?
Oh, and there’s more ….. the Designated Driver program that gives out free soda or water if you pledge not to drink? After many years, now gone.
And even the little packets of Blue Lizard sunscreen that they always handed out when requested by fans who forgot to bring or use lotion …. gone.
I am seriously, HOW FREAKIN’ CHEAP CAN GET THE RED SOX GET???
Fever – that’s the analytics department for you.
You just know Henry has teams of unpaid interns whose job it is to figure out where costs can be trimmed and profits increased.
Ladies rooms to get $1 restroom stalls and men’s room waterless urine troughs next? Who knows….
Anyone looking for more wins than ’23 with the current roster is deluded or high. If the latter pass it around cos this season is gonna be ugly.
Fever – Dewey meant Duran because like so many others he’s complaining about league average fielders while the worst 3B in history still sits at 3B.
If you add Duran, Yoshida and Casas together their damage is less than 1/4 the damage Devers causes. Would it be great if everyone fielded like Mookie, sure but to be league average and put up big offensive numbers is a combo people should be able to live with. To be the worst in HISTORY that’s UNACCEPTABLE.
Thanks all. I said Duran because I forgot about Casas and was thinking of two outfielders together with Devers on third. Duran simply does not have the arm to play center. I still say their best team for 24 has CR in center unless he totally proves he’s overmatched at the plate and to trade either Duran or Yoshida. Then you sign both Monte and Chapman so Devers is the DH.
@Box, I can see a senerio where they improve. First, we have a Story playing SS, not Hernandez. Duran and Casas and the other late year call ups are a big bump up from last. Doogie and his distractions are gone. O’Neil is made for Fenway with his swing. Plus, the pen will not be so over taxed trying to replace both Sale and Kluber.
Last off season I predicted a below 500 club for 2023. This year I think they win 85 to 87. IF they put Cora on a shuttle to anywhere, maybe even a wildcard. But that is a huge if, and they get blown out in the first round.
DBH – Drinking the Coolaid!!
Optimism isn’t bad as long as it’s tempered with realism. Your soliloquy had way too many IFs in it. How often do that many ifs actually come true?
66 wins as of now. Dump Cora and 78 wins. Move Devers to DH and trade Yoshi for money to get a SP. 88 wins.and then add the SP1 needed and the playoffs could happen.
You could be right, TF!. There is another factor at play. We don’t know how Breslow will be at the deadline. We know Bloom was horrible at the deadlines. I hope Breslow will be better, heck I am betting on it.
dewey – Ellsbury and Damon had noodle arms too …… not as important as a strong arm in right field.
DBH – Let’s revisit predictions in about a month, I still think they will make a couple more moves.
Agree with you on most, but I’m not as optimistic about O’Neill.
TF – Monty will prevent 66 wins.
If Yoshida puts up at least an .850 OPS or .300 BA will you change your handle to “ILUVMACHOMAN”?
DBH – I think Breslow will still be intelligent at the deadline.
The better question, will John Henry allow him to take on more salary if they are in contention?
Life – This is the first I heard that, can you please provide a link to the stats or a quote from someone in the Sox organization.
Thank you!
Just as I thought, nothing to prove what he said. This person tends to make up a lot of stuff
Oh sure, baseballislife, that totally makes sense, No one must have scouted him until the second half of the year.
I remember when we signed Beltre. Some idiots said that his down season in the prior year was because he couldn’t hit a curve. So they actually thought he was in baseball for 12 YESARS, and no one knew he couldn’t hit a curve?
Let’s see how he does in year 2.
they’ve done nothing to improve in fact we are a worse team going into this season then the team that finished in last place last season, it’s really pathetic, the Boston Red Sox should not be finishing in last place and doing nothing to improve, it is ridiculous
“it’s something of a surprise that Cora indicated Pivetta has a more firm grasp on a rotation spot than Crawford“
Surprise?!? LOL cora is an idiot so nothing he does should come as a surprise.
I think it’s highly unlikely that any manager has the final say on who’s in the starting rotation. When they give “updates” like this it’s on behalf of the organization, not purely his own perspective.
I’m pretty sure cora sets the rotation based on what he sees in spring training. Either way he’s still an idiot.
6-3, 223lb
Of course he pulled a hamstring. Why the endless mythology about size being good for baseball performance?
It’s just not. All these bigs break down.
Sure there are exceptions, but the exceptions prove nothing. Meanwhile, everyone scratches their heads wondering how all these all-time greats were so small compared to today’s “studs”.
Because being bigger is a BAD IDEA!!!!!
Idiots.
How did Kutter Crawford’s parents know he would be a pitcher when they named him ?
Asking for a friend..
Now that I think about it, never mind, he could have been a barber or a butcher too
Could be a family name, there are folks from Germany with it as a surname. Plus is kinda unique and cool on its own.
Keep sleeping on the Redsox. 87 wins
As constructed? It’s possible if you count 10-12 preseason wins.
Counting from yesterday maybe. They have a better chance of having 100 losses than 87 wins.
Not according to ESPN.
RickEO – Thinking through ANY possible logic you might have put into your estimate I can only assume you believe both Snell and Monty sign with us and we pick up Chapman to play 3B That would be awesome if it happened but until it does, I’m sticking with 66-96 and the 8th pick in the draft.
He hit .289 in his rookie year without being able to hit 2 primary pitches?
Imagine what he’ll do when he learns to hit those pitches.
Mtch and solar – Should we send him to AAA to do that or does his $18MM a year suggest he should already know how to do that?
FYI…. it was .279 not .289!!
Mata has essentially been injured for the last 2 or 3 years. He’s perfect for us.
B-Strong – Couldn’t resist. It doesn’t MATA what you say he’s going to be good some day!!!
Yoshi playing LF at Fenway not so bad…. I don’t have anything to back this up other than the two things the Lord gave me…. He falls in between the Yaz/ Benny/ Jim Ed /Gator/ Johny/ Troy/ Manny/ Watson/Baylor…. Point being wasn’t the worse I saw out there… and it he could hit 344 with say 30-35hrs a 450-480 obp MIGHT be the best….
When did Watson or Baylor play left? Baylor was a DH and Watson played first when he didn’t DH.
Hand full of games ( per best Redsox LF of all time) damn internet!!! But then again strato- matic baseball says Tony Armas and Gorman Thomas were elite CF at one time?? Fun fact Johnny Bench actually played a game in CF… and by now everyone knows it was Billy Buck in LF when Hank hit the big one… pine tar game lot of cool one also…
oimtiant – I think you have somewhat exaggerated the performance of our DH until Devers becomes DH.
First, read the scouting reports from JAPAN. They said if the ball wasn’t hit right at him, forget about it. They said his arm strength was below average and that matched his speed.
The idea that his numbers will explode like you suggested is a highly unlikely event. Remember how baseball works. New guy comes along who nobody knows and he hits well. A book gets started and shared around the league and suddenly the hitter struggles. Coaches work with the hitter to off set the book on him and he improves and at some point things begin to level off. He had his good period which wasn’t all that good then he had his bad period which wasn’t all that bad. Based on what I’ve seen, he seems like a ..280 to .300 hitter with an OBP around .330 to .350 and limited power and speed. His SBs were the most shocking part of his 2023 season. They were far greater than expected. Everything else seemed like the Japanese hype that usually happens when players first arrive and face MLB pitching. Don’t expect Yamamoto to put up Japanese numbers in his first year either. So far, only Ohtani has broken the mold by performing at a high level in the MLB.
Troll… oh my.. no ……. Those hitting stats are close to a one teddy ballgame … who was also not a stellar LF… but hit like that and you could put me out there as defensive replacement and still be good!!! ( okay) not good but no worse than manny out there lol
It’s full throttle now for Yoshida. Fixed jaw . Get the plaque ready for MVP. Don’t stop there Cooperstown here he comes .
B-Dog – Somebody should have showed him the bucket of gum to keep his jaw from hurting. Heck, maybe he could learn blowing bubbles to distract himself from all the pain!!
OR JUST MAYBE he could adjust quicker to the adjustments being made by the pitchers!!!
There is really nothing to see here as the SAWX are going to be a very bad team – lots of mental errors, inconsistent pitching & absolutely a nightmare on defense. & basic fundamentals on the bases…..not to mention the injuries..
Franklin: I don’t know ,I read a few of the above posts . I better save some vacation time , to catch a playoff game .
lol
B Dog – Let’s sit on top of the wall at the playoffs!!! OK?
Troll: I am in
Bring back JDM for two more seasons and sign Montgomery to an opt out laden contract similar to Bellinger’s. That should hopefully buy some time until BOS moves on from this cheap phase they’re going through. Re-sign Montgomery once ownership isn’t so cash-strapped.
The days of integrating a one dimensional; player into a roster plan are almost gone -JDM would not be a game changing asset on this garage sale roster.
Franklin – SO HAVING MORE DHS IS A BAD THING?
Could you send that memo to Bloom and Breslow. They hoard them.
Most likely a last place club but could fight it out for second to the last
Soxfanforever – Against who? What other team will win less than 70 games in the AL East?
Cora messing with the rotation again. What could go wrong?
… Don’t answer that, not enough bandwidth on the servers for all the answers.
DBH – I have a theory that Breslow and Bailey will overrule the Lame Duck at times …. hopefully I’m right.
Fever – I love that you are a dreamer!!!! hahaha
FPG, you know BnB can’t stop his in game decisions hah. And managers manage the players.
And TF, we are all dreamers, bro.
Good to see you guys. I have been away from the internet getting ready to hit the road full time in our travel trailer by end of summer. Have a lot to get in order for the next phase of life 🙂
DBH – Good luck with everything. If you travel through the Dallas area we can go to a Ranger game!!
Safe travels.
We may be in Texas this fall. Not sure yet. Plans still fluid. I will let you know
Sox beat two division champs today.
Whyhayzee – So playoff tickets are a possibility? hahaha
Watch KC and PIT beat them tomorrow.
If they would just sign Monty & bring back Duvall it sure would make this team better on paper & it would make us fans more excited about BoSox baseball for this season.
Just get’er done!!
I know the writers do a great job researching their articles but is it sufficient to point out the bad last 62 games for Yoshida. It’s like talking about the 0 for 15 by Rafaela that lowered his .365 batting average to .241 to end the season..
The schedule has lots to do with slumps and hot streaks. You face many all-star quality SPs in SEP because you play the AL East more times in SEPT than all the other months together and it’s a surprise averages fell?
Yoshida took advantage of the weak pitchers early in the year and proved he’s not as good as he looked in the first half when he started facing some of the best pitchers in the MLB. That’s not really an indictment on an individual’s skill. Boston got shut out 3 of their last 7 games in 2023 by the CWS, BAL and TB. Everyone’s average falls when you win 3 of your last 15 games.
Yoshida isn’t as good as his first half and not as bad as his last 62 games. That creates a range of fair expectations for him in 2024.
Kutter Crawford…
Of all RHP that threw >750 4seamers in 2023, Pivetta was #2, Crawford was #3 in above avg vertical movement (appearance of vertical movement). Crawford was also #12 in his 4seamers horizontal break against avg. Reduce the sample size to only 100 RH 4seamers thrown and they only fall to #9 and #10. They are different pitchers but they both have dominant RH fastballs.
Crawford deserves to be the #4 on this team following his 2023 performance. If there’s interest I can spell out why Pivetta deserves a crack as the #3 IMO. With Bailey joining the coaching staff, these are the 2 Red Sox rostered pitchers I’ve been most intrigued by this offseason.
Crawford has above avg movement on his cutter – #7 in vertical movement and #2 for horizontal movement of all RHP throwing 500+ cutters in 2023(Jensen was #1 in vert. and #16 in hor.). By the end of the year he had more closely balanced his cutter/slider usage (Sept 22.6%/18.8% vs Jun 24.2%/10.9%). June is when he became a full-time starter and went on a journey of refining the secondary and tertiary usage of his arsenal. His 4seam rate stayed relatively close to 40% throughout the yr with a dip in August which also resulted in poorer results. He boosted it back to 40% in Sept and finished the season with his best month – 11.6 K/9 (25.6%), 0.97 WHIP while tossing 25.2IP across 5 starts. We have heard about Crawford’s control being ++ but for context, he threw a total of 4 wild pitches in 2023 and avg’d 1 BB every 14.6 PA. Comparing his K and BB % against the league avg he has a higher K% by 2.8% (25.6%/22.8%) and a lower BB% by 1.7% (6.8%/8.5%).
Crawford’s opportunity is working deeper into games but there is more than meets the eye. For the season opponents batted .221 against him, but his BAbip was .269, signaling hitter luck and/or poor defense when hitters did make contact. Digging a little further on that, you’ll see he had a lower than avg hard hit rate (35.3%), and of all pitchers with 350+ Batted Balls, Crawford was #26 in barrels/PA with just 5% of barrels finding his pitches. Translated to real outcomes that was a total of 27 barrels for 2023…across 129 1/3IP…so 1 barrel every 4 2/3 IP. The team avg’d 4.8 runs per 27 outs with him but with the poor defense behind him, he lasted an avg just shy of 5IP/start, or 14 outs per start. Again translating to real-world, non-metric terms, he was leaving games with an avg of just over 2 runs of support from the team. Going back to that barrel rate, that was 1 barrel per start.
What worked and didn’t work from his arsenal? His 4-FB movement is amongst the highest and by the end of the year he had dropped his splitter usage (Apr 13.3%/Sept 5.4%) in favor of working hitters with his slider and cutter. Although his slider movement isn’t more than avg, his ability to break balls in on both LHP and RHP with a slider/cutter combo building off high-rising FBs (in appearance) is potent on hitters’ ability to get comfortable. At the start of the year, he tried to work a splitter into his mix more frequently but did not find success with it. Only 43 pitchers threw 100 splitters in 2023 but Crawford’s movement (drop and horizontal) were amongst the lowest. You don’t need to be an expert to know flat splitters don’t play. As a pitch performance contrast, Houck’s splitter was #8 in vertical and horizontal movement against avg.
As Crawford found his most effective pitch mix in Sept he saw increased whiff% on his cutter(31%), slider(34%), and 4seamer(28.2%). During July, Crawford’s second strongest month, his slider whiff% was 60.6% on 44 thrown. I’ll avoid disregarding his Curveball, which sits avg to below avg in movement, but still gets thrown 12% of the time and also commanded a 26% whiff rate in Sept. That pitch showed improvement to close Sept as its usage dropped by 1% from Aug, but the rate at which it was misread increased by nearly 6%. While his split-finger proved to be a weakness by year-end, the logic of having the pitch in his mix was sound as he already had pitches moving in the other 3 directions, and he had seen sporadic success with it in 2022. A splitter would provide downward movement to contrast a fastball that appears to raise by >10” while approaching the hitter The splitter did not turn out be his strongest downward-moving pitch though, as the curveball fulfilled that role by year-end.
Darn, MV… did you eat an encyclopedia for supper? Good read, bro, but not at 7am lol. Now I need another coffee!
DBH – I did forget the caffeine disclosure, that’s my bad! Hopefully, you don’t mind having Crawford’s July slider whiff rate floating through your mind as you forget the less important things.
I eat data and form strategies for work. 1TB a day keeps the doctor away…or something like that. I know the length isn’t for everyone but, glad you got something out of it!
Well, how about a break down of Tanner’s pitch selection last year vs 2022 🙂
Need something to read for lunch
Houck:
The way my eyes read Houck’s data and visual performance he belongs in the pen as a 2-3 inning stud. He has above avg breaking pitches but doesn’t have a FB to build off of. Bring him in against the 7 or 8 hitter and maybe you can push 3 innings out of him. He needs to be able to come in to throw his slider and splitter to the amazement of the 7 to 10 guys that he faces and then get out of the game. I view him as the new Schrieber out in the Sox pen – unique arm angle, hard slider that cleans the zone out, limited fastball.
I don’t see Houck’s issues being tied to his usage breakdown, but more his limited FB. That applies to 2022/23. In 2023 he threw 170 FB across 106 IP, or, 1.6 an inning. Inning. For the year of 2023, he had a 9.6% FB usage and actually crept it up to 18% in Sept. If that FB usage was due to him playing up a strong change-up that follows a similar plain of travel the low FB rate might not be as limiting. But, he throws his slider almost 40% of the time. I get it, that’s his strongest pitch, but the sheer amount of known movement on the pitch, and the ability for hitters to watch it almost every other pitch (by avgs), means it is a lot easier for hitters to spit or sit on it. What was different from 2022 to 23 was that he again dropped his FB usage – 2021 – FB 38.6%, 2022 24.6%, and 2023 9.6%. All the while his slider stayed between 37-40%. In ’22 and ’23 he tossed his Sinker nearly 30%, with what I interpret as the intention of it holding the place of a 4seamer. I think Dave Bush tried to find ways to get him deeper into games by giving hitters more vertical movement from Houck. But vertical isn’t what Houck does – Avg Against FB/Sinker/Split in 2023 was .310/.291/.279. Horizontal movement is what he needs to be able to do – 2023 Slider/Cutter was .179/.220.
Bailey’s theme of Spring Training has been to take what the pitcher does best and maximize that strength. For Houck, it’s his slider, but maximizing that pitch with a below avg FB means bullpen. Maybe he can get his Sinker or Split clicking (he does have top 10 movement on his Splitter), but even then I see him as a nice pen piece and likely part of the reason they were fine moving Schrieber’s dominant slider and team control.
Enjoy your lunch you filthy animal.
Awesome. Thanks. Gives a lot to think about. I was somebody who viewed him as a starter. Have to rethink that now
Mo – No offense but what a bunch of horse crap.
Houck’s fastball is just fine. The use of his fastball has changed since he’s been under the astute tutelage of the Boston Red Sox pitching coaches.
Houck’s fastball due to his release runs a great deal. Throughout college and the minors he struggled being able to pinpoint the location of where it would end up. Good days the ball broke in a predictive way, bad days the ball moved more or less than he expected. This is a mechanical problem that the coaches should have been able to fix. They didn’t. His stuff is electric but much like a young Sale he’s not ever completely sure how much his pitch is going to run.
Declaring him a reliever is to quit on him. He’s got the best stuff on the team and should be the SP1 if he had some decent pitching coaches. He throws two pitches that break opposite directions out of a difficult to pick up arm angle at a very high velocity. Off speed pitches move toward the right handed batter and the fastball tails away from the batter. The distance of the tail varies. I believe that’s from inconsistent mechanics. Also, as a younger pitcher he worked down in the strike zone and was extremely effective. The Red Sox have changed that to his demise. He now throws the ball in hopes of rising it up and away from the righty hitters. The first time through an order it’s electric enough to beat the batters. The second time through it’s less effective because the pitching staff hasn’t had him work up and down throught the game, they stay up all the time. Is that Houck’s fault? NOPE. Bad coaching. If they allowed him to go through the rotation with high heat in the early innings, low heat the next time through the batting order then the third time through would not be so predictable. This is all about horrific pitching coaches. Houck’s got the best stuff on the team now that Sale is gone.
TF-
Please, call it horse manure. Here’s some more of it that shows his fastballs aren’t fine.
Houck 2023…
-Avg FB release speed is 90.6MPH, and his avg crossing the plate is 93.5MPH. Good for the 40th percentile in velocity. Below avg.
-Fastball run value is -3, or 32nd percentile
-He was in the 17th percentile for hard hit %
-Of his 14 HRs in 2023 5 were from the sinker, 2 from split, 2 from 4-seam….9 of 14 HRs were on his fastballs
-Hitters did beat their XBA on all 3 of his FB pitches, but they still would have hit .267 or better on all 3 if the XBA was the outcome
-His 4-seam has -5.9” of vertical movement compared to avg due to his arm angle and not having leverage on the ball
-His Sinker moves a ton and has close to the same velo as his 4-seam, but got cleaned out to the tune of .306 with a whiff% of just 18.6%. His 4-seam whiff% is only 15.9%
-His 4-seam Hard Hit% was 57.1%, Sinker 50.9%. In 2022 it was >40% for both of them as well. 2021 >39% on both. All years are well worse than the league avg hard it %.
-Exit velo on his 2023 Sinker was 91.7 and on his 4-seam 93.7.
Base hits on his 4-seamer, Sinker, and Spilt are all through the middle to up in the zone. This is due to him trying to go upstairs from a 3/4 or sidearm slot, but not being able to get enough leverage on the ball to throw it hard enough to have carry. This is proven in his almost -6” 4-seam vertical movement. You don’t want that pitch to drop or appear to drop, but his does. While his Sinker has very above avg drop, it again is due to limited velocity and arm angle. Its a lot harder to effectively go up the zone the lower the arm goes.
He is a good pitcher but is not a starter. He belongs in the bullpen where he can be a stud. He does GBs well due to his breaking pitches – slider and cutter. His breaking action is elite, mainly through his slider, but his new Cutter in 2023 was avg and showed promise. Physically he can’t go vertical out of his arm slot and ends up throwing a slower, flat to slightly sinking fastball.
Mo quite simply Pivetta was a different pitcher after the introduction of the sweeper/slider whatever you want to call it. The introduction of that east west pitch kept hitters from just looking north south on his pitches. I think there’s a likely chance his breakout last year is sustainable and expect his use of the sweeper/slider to tick up this year.
Agreed his sweeper is like watching a wiffle ball!
Bruin-
I see it similarly for Pivetta. From June to Sept Pivetta added about 1″ of horizontal break to his slider. His fastball has shown pretty much the same movement for 3+ yrs (consistency), and his over-the-top curve has top 3 vertical movement, runs so much slower than his FB, and has one of the lowest horizontal breaks of all curveballs. He was also throwing a split-finger in 2022 and to start 2023 – more vertical movement – but had all but dropped the pitch to close out last year in favor of a 3 pitch mix. His FB usage has hovered around 50%. So, 50% of the time, hitters were seeing a gnarly 95mph rising FB that Nick repeats extremely well. The catch is that was also a regular look – 5 out of 10 pitches being a FB, and Curveball another 30% (3 of 10). Like you said, the hitter’s eye wasn’t forced to adjust to different plains of direction.
As Pivetta played with his slider in June/July, he introduced more horizontal movement in the pitch’s execution, but also in usage. In April he was FB 52.8%/Curve 29.8%/Slider 15.3%. Contrast that with July – FB 52%/Curve 19.8%/Slider 28% and Sept FB 49.2%/Curve 21%/Slider 29.7%.
The slider/sweeper keeps hitters honest horizontally. He also throws the pitch in the mid 80s….about 8mph faster than his Curve, and about 8mph slower than his heat. So, a top 3 vertical breaking curveball at 79-80mph, an 87mph slider/sweeper, and 95mph rising(in appearance) FB.
If Nick is ever going to break out, it’s 2024 now that he has taken pressure off his curve by introducing an improved slider.
I think he’s an extension candidate.
Full Throttle!
Ahahahahaha.
Haahaha.
Ahh.
Go get Trevor Bauer and have Reese McGuire as his personal catcher. Just imagine what they would be talking about on mound visits.
Red Sox fans to Montgomery “Please, come to Boston for the Springtime
I’m stayin’ here with some friends, and they’ve got lots of room
And you can sell your paintings on the side-walk
By a café where I hope to be workin’ soon
Please, come to Boston
She said, “No, boy would you come home to me?””