Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in just over a week but there’s still plenty of offseason business that remains unfinished. There are still four free agents that could plausibly land a long-term, nine-figure deal: Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman. There are also plenty of other free agents who should be in line for significant short-term deals, such as J.D. Martinez, Gary Sánchez, Brandon Belt, Whit Merrifield, Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario, Gio Urshela, Michael Lorenzen, Jorge Soler, Tommy Pham, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, Hyun Jin Ryu and many more.
Many of those players, including all of the big four, are represented by Scott Boras. He has a reputation of letting his players linger on the market, even if that means pushing things into March or even into the regular season. This tactic has yielded mixed results over the years but there have been many instances of significant deals getting done at this late period of the offseason.
It seems that the ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group is having an impact on this winter’s market. Many clubs are trying to cut back payroll due to uncertainty around their broadcast revenue, which is having a domino effect on various players. For example, the Padres’ TV deal collapsed last year and they are now looking to get under the competitive balance tax for 2024. That means they have been less of a factor in the free agent market. Also, they traded Juan Soto to the Yankees to free up payroll, which means that the Yanks didn’t need to upgrade their outfield via free agency.
So, who still has powder dry? Let’s take a broad look at the clubs and see where the payrolls are, compared to previous spending or where the decision makers/reporters have said it will go this year. Payroll data and estimates courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource.
- Over Top CBT Tier: Mets, Dodgers, Yankees
The fourth and final tier of the CBT is $297MM this year and each of these three clubs are comfortably beyond it. The Mets are at $322MM, the Yankees at $305MM and the Dodgers at $308MM. Each of the three are also third-time payors, which comes with escalating tax rates. Any further spending from these clubs now comes with a 110% rate, meaning it would cost them more than double the amount going to the player.
That doesn’t mean they can’t fit in another deal. For instance, the Mets were already well over the top line last year when they agreed to a deal with Carlos Correa. That deal eventually fell apart due to medical concerns, but it shows that the luxury tax is different than a hard salary cap and teams can continue soaring to new spending heights if they so choose.
The Mets aren’t likely to do something huge in the coming weeks, as they are doing a semi-reset and have limited themselves to short-term deals this offseason. The Yankees and Dodgers each have loaded lineups but questionable rotation depth. However, the Dodgers have avoided long-term deals for pitchers historically, while the Yankees reportedly pivoted to Marcus Stroman when they balked at the asking prices of Snell and Montgomery.
- Higher Than They’ve Been Before: Braves, Astros, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Rays
Any of these clubs could decide to spend some more, but they are currently set to be in record territory and they would need to be willing to push things even farther than they already have.
Atlanta’s CBT number is currently estimated at $270MM. That’s well beyond last year’s $246MM figure and just shy of the third tier, which is $277MM. Going over that third line comes with increased taxation but also requires a club’s highest pick in the next draft to be pushed back 10 spots. Atlanta isn’t generally a huge player in free agency anyway, preferring to extend its incumbent players while being aggressive on the trade market.
The Astros have gone near to the tax line under Jim Crane but have generally avoided going over. Their only previous season going beyond it was 2020, when the penalties were eliminated during the shortened season. They came into the offseason with their CBT number hovering right around the border, which seemed to limit their activity until a season-ending injury for Kendall Graveman pushed them to get a deal done with Josh Hader. They’re now at $255MM, just shy of the second tier, which is $257MM.
The Blue Jays paid the tax for the first time last year, getting their CBT number up to $246MM. They are now at $251MM, only a bit higher, but the pure payroll is a big jump. They spent $214MM last year and already have $240MM in commitments for 2024.
The Diamondbacks have a franchise-high payroll of $132MM, which was set back in 2018. Last year was a financial mixed bag, as they made a surprise run to the World Series and netted some extra playoff revenue but their TV deal also collapsed. They’ve been fairly active this winter and are set to start the season with a payroll of $142MM.
Despite a cost-cutting trade of Tyler Glasnow, the Rays are still in uncharted waters for them. Their $93MM payroll would be a franchise high, with Cot’s having their franchise record as $84MM from 2022.
- Pretty Close To Last Year: Phillies, Rangers, Cardinals, Mariners, Nationals, Guardians, Pirates
Each of these clubs is currently within the ballpark of where they were last year. Perhaps that means they are content with their current level, but deciding to make a jump is always a possibility.
The Phillies had a $246MM payroll and $263MM CBT number last year, with those numbers now at $238MM and $253MM. Presumably, they wouldn’t want to cross the third CBT line and have their top draft pick pushed back 10 spots. Since that line is $277MM this year, they could have some room there, especially with a creatively-structured deal.
The Rangers have been very aggressive in recent offseasons but came into this winter with some trepidation. Despite just winning the World Series, their TV deal seemed to be in danger of collapsing. The latest reporting indicates their relationship with Diamond Sports Group could continue for at least one more year, though likely with reduced fees coming to the club. Their payroll and CBT were $214MM and $237MM last year, with those numbers now at $221MM and $243MM for 2024.
The Cards had a payroll of $178MM last year and are at $179MM this year. They may push that a bit further to get another reliever, but seem fairly content with their rotation and position player mix. The Mariners will reportedly end up above last year, but not by too much thanks to their own TV revenue situation. Their payroll was at $140MM last year and are at $135MM at the moment. The Nationals were at $109MM last year and are set for a bump to $125MM this year. They are still nowhere near their franchise highs but they’re unlikely to get back into that range while still rebuilding. A big strike next winter when Patrick Corbin’s deal is off the books would make more sense. The Guardians were at $98MM last year and are at $96MM now. The Pirates have gone from $70MM to $79MM.
- Some Wiggle Room To The Tax Threshold: Padres, Giants, Cubs
Each of these clubs is within striking distance of the lowest CBT threshold and probably won’t cross it. The Padres have been cutting spending this winter due to their TV deal collapsing and their past aggression putting them out of whack with the league’s debt-to-service ratio rule. Their CBT number is at $215MM, which gives them some room to work with before getting to the $237MM base threshold. But they arguably need two outfielders, two starting pitchers and a designated hitter, so they may have to spread their money around.
The Giants haven’t paid the tax in recent years but still have some space before they would get there this year. Their CBT number is currently at $208MM, with the base threshold at $237MM this year. Even if they want to avoid going over the line, they could still add $25MM or so while still leaving a bit of room for midseason additions. Many predicted them as a landing spot for Bellinger earlier in the offseason but they signed Jung Hoo Lee to be their everyday center fielder. Chapman could still fit at third base, with J.D. Davis then moving into a part-time/DH role or ending up on the trading block. The rotation still has plenty of question marks behind Logan Webb, so either Snell or Montgomery would be a sensible target as well.
The Cubs are in a somewhat similar position, having not paid the tax in recent years. Their CBT number is currently a hair below $207MM, putting them about $30MM shy of the base threshold. They could bring Bellinger back after enjoying his bounceback season in 2023, but they may be loath to block outfield prospects like Pete Crow-Armstrong. Third base is a possible fit for Chapman, as he would be a clear upgrade over Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom. The rotation has a decent front four with Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and Kyle Hendricks. They could leave the fifth spot open for an audition between Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad, Caleb Kilian and others, but all those guys have options and limited experience. Adding Snell or Montgomery could push them into depth roles to be called upon during the season as injuries arise.
- Should Have Lots Of Room: Angels
The Angels were over the tax line in 2023, but managed to limbo under the line late in the year. As they fell out of contention, they put various players on waivers to give away their contracts and also put Max Stassi on the restricted list as he was away from the club while his son was in NICU after being born three months premature.
Those shenanigans worked in getting the club under the line, but that’s beside the point of this post. The key takeaway for this exercise is that they are willing to get near and even cross the line under the right circumstances. Even though Shohei Ohtani is now gone, general manager Perry Minasian has clearly stated the club still plans to compete this year. To that end, they have bolstered their club by spending on the bullpen, having signed Robert Stephenson, Matt Moore, Luis García and Adam Cimber.
Even with those deals, the club still has a huge amount of space before getting near the $237MM base threshold of the CBT. They are currently just over $187MM, giving them roughly $50MM of space to work with even if they want to stay under the line to start the year. The rotation was a disappointment in 2023 and adding to their current group with someone like Snell or Montgomery would make sense. They current project to have Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson and Chase Silseth as their starters. There’s talent in that group but clear room for improvement as well. Silseth still has options and less than 130 innings pitched above the Double-A level, so bumping him to sixth on the depth chart would be defensible.
On the position player side of things, the Halos technically have a third baseman in Anthony Rendon, but he’s about to turn 34 and hasn’t played 60 games in a season since 2019. Having two players on huge deals for the same position wouldn’t be the best use of resources, but Chapman could push Rendon into a regular designated hitter role now that Ohtani has vacated that spot. In the outfield, Bellinger could take a corner and occasionally spell Trout in center. Those two, along with Aaron Hicks and Taylor Ward, could plausibly share the three outfield jobs and the DH role, while pushing Mickey Moniak into the fourth outfielder gig.
- Should Have Some Room: Twins, Brewers, Marlins, Royals, Athletics
The Twins have had some payroll issues due to their TV revenue situation but they recently cleared some space with the Jorge Polanco trade. They reportedly want to be in the $125-140MM range and are currently at $118MM. The resurrection of Diamond Sports Group might allow them to keep that relationship going for one more year, so perhaps they could push things to the higher end of that range. They were at $159MM last year but have been planning on a cut due to the TV revenue situation.
The Brewers had a $126MM payroll last year and are just at $117MM right now. They generally aren’t huge free agent spenders but made a notable addition with the recent signing of Rhys Hoskins. The Marlins were at $110MM last year but have been extremely quiet this offseason. New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix hasn’t signed any free agents yet, so the payroll is at just $97MM. The Royals have made a huge jump from last year, going from $91MM to $113MM. General manager J.J. Picollo has suggested the club is fairly content with the current roster, but then they signed Adam Frazier. Perhaps more small moves could be coming since they’ve had the payroll as high as $143MM in the past.
As for the Athletics, they will spend on something. General manager David Forst said he expects a higher payroll than last year. They were at $59MM in 2023 but are only at $40MM for the upcoming season, though Alex Wood will bump that slightly when the details of his deal are revealed. Despite their aggressive rebuild, they spent on guys like Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson, Trevor May, Shintaro Fujinami, Jesús Aguilar and Drew Rucinski last winter. With the club departing Oakland after this year and headed for another last-place finish, it won’t be the first choice for many free agents but it could be a fallback plan for some.
- Below Past Levels But Might Not Spend: Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Reds, Rockies, White Sox
These clubs are all below their franchise highs in terms of spending, but there are other reasons to suggest a big deal might not be forthcoming in the next few weeks. The Orioles have had payrolls as high as $164MM, but that was back in 2017 when Peter Angelos was still running things. Since then, his son John has taken over as “control person”. The club underwent an aggressive rebuild, which naturally dropped the payroll, but they haven’t changed their spending habits even though the rebuild is over.
The won the American League East last year but still haven’t given a multi-year deal to a free agent since Alex Cobb in 2018. Their most significant signing this winter has been a one-year pact for Craig Kimbrel. This week, it was reported that the club is being sold from the Angelos family to a new investment group, but that still requires league approval. That could change the club’s behavior down the road but it’s unclear if it will have an immediate impact.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, have been dialing back the spending in recent years and don’t seem to be bringing it back. Despite the “full throttle” comments from chairman Tom Werner earlier in the offseason, CEO Sam Kennedy recently admitted that the club will probably have a lower payroll than last year. Broadly speaking, it seems the club is in wait-and-see mode as it evaluates some younger players before deciding on a path forward.
The Tigers and Reds have each been active in upgrading their rosters for the upcoming season, but neither is in record territory. Thanks to mega contracts for Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto expiring, each club has been able to spend on free agents without setting any franchise records. The Tigers had a payroll of $200MM as recently as 2017, but their signings of Kenta Maeda, Jack Flaherty, Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller (plus the acquisition of Mark Canha) have only pushed them to $108MM for this year. The Reds were at $127MM in 2019 but are only at $100MM now, despite signing Jeimer Candelario, Frankie Montas, Nick Martínez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter. But Detroit’s president of baseball operations Scott Harris has spoken many times about the perils of making bold moves too early, something the club knows too well after their deals for Eduardo Rodríguez and Javier Báez didn’t work out in 2022. As for the Reds, this year’s payroll is already a bump from last year’s $87MM and they don’t have huge holes on the roster.
The Rockies and White Sox are each below their past spending levels but both clubs are coming off disastrous seasons and aren’t well positioned to make a bold strike. There would be plenty of room for short-term veteran additions, however.
Whichever team has the courage and decency to do the right thing and sign Trevor for their rotation, that’s the answer to this headline.
Almost fairly certain boaras client harper is holding things up until he gets his extension, mostly an extension to the IL.
Boras does well for his top tier, top 5% clients, but the rest, like Belli, are often left holding the bag while Boras tries to extract the biggest commissions possible for himself. Boras has led Belli into most likely another 1 yr “pillow” contract, after reportedly turning down a 5 year 160M offer earlier in the off-season.
Where did you see he turned down a 5/160?
“Where did you see?”…The same place I heard that Carlos Correa once turned down 275M(William Morris, not Boras were his agents then)to only later sign a smaller 200M contract, the INTERNET.
So no reliable source.
That’s wild you’re blaming Harper for the slow offseason. There is zero chance the Boras Corp is putting Harper above all of their other clients
“That’s wild”…I hope that guy is kidding about Harper being the reason, but Boras made Harper look a little silly or greedy by suggesting “extension” for a guy with the better part of a decade left on his current deal.
Agrre Waldo, this is a standard Boras Corp stall tactic. Some would argue it’s ruining the offseason. iTalk Studios did a great piece on it on their Youtube channel.
Boras deals with the Phillies and Phillies alone in regards to Harper. If he was focused on only one player, who is already playing on a big money mega deal for years to come, all of his other clients would be seeking new agents.
The problem for all of these players is there a few owners who will actually deal with Boras and of those who are willing, some have chosen not to spend big (Angels, Nationals). You can call it collusion or whatever you want but when you already know that the ask is going to start at $200 million when you answer the phone you are less likely to take the call
Can we please remove Bellinger from Angels consideration? That has to be Boras “pull in LA or NY” into the conversation. They got Hicks and now need to figure out where Adell fits as a 4th or 5th OF. They have no room in the OF and Schanuel looks to be getting a shot at 1B.
Belli will be a Cub at a discounted (from Boras ridiculous amount) rate.
Are you saying that because the Angels have Adell, that they cannot sign Bellinger?
That is like saying that because the Padres have Batten that they couldn’t sign Bogaerts. Actually Batten may be better than Adell at this point.
How freaking depressing is it to see our BoSox lumped in w the rest of those teams? What in the name of John Valentin is going on around here?!?!
From the outside looking in it seems strange to not see the Sox being big spenders but the reality is it’s probably better for them not to bog themselves down with 2 or 3 franchise crippling contracts just for the sake of doing so
Patience grasshopper. 1 year away. Not spending foolishly on mediocre players
Agree, this isn’t the greatest FA year. The adulation paid to Snell, Monty, etc is definitely in a vacuum. Just not sold on the potential of the 2024 rotation.
@swanhenge – I agree. I believe that’s the main reason a team like the Phillies has been so quiet this offseason. The asking price is far too steep for what these players bring to the table. It makes more sense for rebuilding clubs as well as WS contenders to wait this out.
No sense in spending “Stupid Money” only to have it not work out later.
Rick I agree with you on Bellinger, Chapman etc. but every team would be better with Snell or Monty in the rotation. Boston should be all over one of those guys.
*Edit: I don’t mean to imply they should give Snell that ridiculous ask of 9 years for 270 million.
Shenanigans? There was nothing dishonest or secretive about the Angels maneuvering. Their maneuvers were shrewd and astute.
It’s one of the few things they did right? .
I’d love to say the Giants are the most likely, but successful real estate firms that happen to also own a baseball team don’t really need to worry about winning on the field. Breaking even is good enough for them. Farhan doesn’t have the sack to sign one of these dudes.
@tedtheodorelogan Exactly. The San Francisco Giants organizationally, Have become a Real Estate Holding Corp with a Baseball Problem.
And they can get away with it because Bay Area baseball writers are notoriously SOFT and are incapable of critical analysis. So, there is zero pressure to actually do anything because they are not publicly held accountable.
1 Winning season since 2016??
This franchise is absolutely NOT committed to winning at all.
Don’t count out the Giants. They still could walk away with Snell and Chapman before the offseason ends
I know they could. If they were a serious baseball team with intentions of winning they would sign all 4 of them. They can afford it, they just don’t care about championships anymore. Attempting to limp into a third wildcard spot with a rotation of Logan Webb and a bunch of question marks is good enough for them.
@tedtheodorelogan “If they were a serious baseball team with intentions of winning they would sign all 4 of them”
Now that’s a laughable take. Thanks for showing us that your expectations of this front office are completely unrealistic.
Brilliant! We want to be the 2023 Mets! Brilliant! Ted, the future exGM. Brilliant!
Farhan is 5 years into his tenure, with 1 fluke winning season, a bottom half farm system, and is more than 100 games behind the Dodgers since he took over. Tell me, what about his mode of operation do you like? Is it the talentless, boring rosters that he assembles? Is it watching some relief pitcher start every few days because he won’t sign actual starting pitchers? As a fan of 40 years, his tenure, outside of the one winning season which was a total fluke, has been the least enjoyable baseball I’ve watched.
Same thing with the Tigers.
FO stringing along the fans, playing us for fools….
It’s a monopoly, with built in regional loyalties……
I feel %100 taken advantage of by a bunch of rich guys thumbing thier noses at me….
Laughing at.me.because,.that’s the system and Im.too dumb to.go.somewhere else…..
The Tigers were an absolute disaster and the big money they spent when trying to build didn’t work out.
Mike Ilitch went all, and I mean ALL IN, pushing that team’s payroll to $200MM to chase a championship as his health deteriorated.
That left a desiccated corpse of a team which needed to be scrapped and rebuilt. Like what Houston did (and it took Houston years and years to do it)
Sign Bauer, league minimum plus incentives. Hard to imagine Farhan would allow that thought to enter the front office.
@ it’s happeniong – That’s what I keep saying. Bauer would probably sign for (if not very close to) the MLB minimum, with perofrmance or character incentives. Make it a one year deal, give it a team option for a second.
I keep saying the Philiers should do it. Could you imagine him in a rotation with Wheeler, Nola, Suarex, and Walker!?!
plus, that city already paved the way for Michael Vick’s chance at redemption, so it’s not osmething new for the City of Brotherly locve. PLUS, that team is chock full of personalities that are off the wall, Bauer would probably fit there better than anywhere else IMO.
Winning fixes a lot and I bet if a team like the Phillies did that AND won the WS, other fanbases would be pretty upset their contending team didn’t take the shot.
Dombrowski’s dealt with troubled players in the past, in Montreal, Florida, etc.
Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox, Twins, Astros, Braves, Mets, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Giants, DBacks….all including Philly should be on him at league minimum plus incentives.
I’d actually prefer he made long term flexibility limiting decisions with his brain rather than his sack. There’s a time and place for sack, like killing the Correa deal, but when it comes to spending your superstar money on not superstars, the brain is the better option.
I have mixed feelings. Nobody is owed anything as a free agent. Technically speaking a guy can hit .500 with 100 home runs and a 15 WAR production level every year going into free agency and teams can simply decide that they all have log jams and not sign that guy. Nobody is owed anything.
And plenty of players have been paid fairly or overpaid and have received very long term, fair market value deals.
And while, on its face, it is odd that a player like Cody Bellinger hasn’t signed at all and Snell hasn’t signed at all, it also makes perfect sense:
They bounced back in big ways in 2023 after years of scuffling or severely underperforming, so it’s reasonable for teams to wonder if they’ll be getting the MVP calibre player or the borderline DFA player and neither player nor team want to come to an agreement that splits the difference, for the team’s fear that they vastly overpay and for the player’s fear that they accept an insanely steep underpay and for the concern that a contract becomes an albatross for the team or for the player’s fear that they prevent themselves from landing that potential mega deal that sets them for life and then some.
Is Bellinger a player worth 1 year/$30M or 2 years/$55M or 4 years/$100M or 6 years/$135M or 8 years/$260M?
Is Snell a player worth 1 year/$45M or 2 years/$75M or 3 years/$109.5M or 4 years/$116M 5 years/$130M or 5 years/$160M or 5 years/$200M? or is he a guy who will be DFA’d and out of the league in a few years?
Montgomery seems like a slam dunk best bet to live up to any 4-8 year deal at $20M to $30M a year, so why hasn’t anybody signed him?
Chapman seems like a safe bet for at least 2 years/$40M if not something like 5 years/$120M, so why hasn’t anybody signed him?
It’s very odd indeed. All of these are gambles, rolls of the dice, for player and team, but that’s a free market for you…or free agency, if you will…
Trillionaire, Just replying to your Chapman part he did turn down a 4 year 100 Mil + extension with the Jays to test FA’cy, so it is unlikely he signs 2 years and the 5 Year 120 is pretty close to the Jays offer so if he had been offered that he would have already signed!! I think he is holding out for Semein Money and term, 7 years 175 Mil. JMHO
I respectfully understand that and I remember him turning that kind of deal down, but I also think that there’s what he turned down then and what he can actually get now and they might be approximately the same value, regardless of what he turned down before in hopes of what he thought he might be able to get on the open market.
For whatever reason, teams seem reluctant to sign Chapman to an especially long contract (6+ years) and seem uncomfortable with him at an AAV of $25M or more.
Personally, I think he’s absolutely earned 5 years/$125M and if he was signed for that I think he’d live up to the deal exactly.
Nowadays it seems like every player’s contract is judged as an overpay or an underpay- either it’s bloated or it’s a discount- and somehow nobody is ever seen as having been paid the exact correct amount of money over the exact correct number of years.
Chapman seems like a guy worth 5 years/$125M and that he would live up to that deal- not underperform, not exceed, just live up to it- which, technically, should be more than acceptable.
I wonder if that might be becuase of that taxes?
Other players have been turned off to Toronto due to the taxes and currency exchange.
Given the same dollar amount (Canadian vs US), it seems to me that the better deal would be in the US. Perhaps that’s what played a factor in Chapman rejecting that extension?
Because its.just down right shameful to pay someone.that.much to play baseball
It’s shameful to charge that.much to.have fans.watch or.come to the games.
It’s shameful to pay that.much to.watch.
It’s a monopoly and.we.are.getting.the worst of it……
Its.just shameful.
I like.baseball but this is an embarrassment to our culture. We should.value other things more.
Pretty selfish.and poor.leadership to allocate our resources
To baseball like this.
Hopefully the Twins have one more impact move coming before spring training…
Angels need to sign Snail 5-150mil
Sign Bauer to the minimum
Sign Bellinger 4-100mil
That would change the franchise immediately!!
two best free agents available are Bellinger and Bauer.
I think 70/30 Bauer won’t be in the MLB this season (if ever again)
Pirates can easily afford a Long(ish) term deal for either or both. Back load it a moderate amount and assuming one or both are still at least average offloading some of that salary shouldn’t be overly difficult
I’d do 7-10 years at a 25M aav for Bellinger who has been above average and has some time at first.
Bauer3-5m at 20m AAV with some harsh penalties for “bad” behavior. Maybe give Bauer a bonus at the end of the contract if he is a goody boy.
If some how the team could pull off those signings they’re an instant contender for a deep playoff run while still keeping them at or below league average payroll. the risk is that if they suck or otherwise cannot play that takes a big hit.
Nutting would never write those checks. Bauer is radioactive and is not being welcomed back to MLB anytime soon.
Bellinger is still sitting out there because i don’t think too many teams are putting much stock in a bounce back year playing at Wrigley Field in which he still missed a month with a knee injury. Looking for a 10-12 year deal in the $250-300 million range was always going to be a pipe dream
I didn’t think they would spend 10m on a aging out reliever.
Bob seems to have given Ben some room to work. Probably because Ben knows how to spend money to win Not a huge amount but 100m is more than reasonable this season if Bob and Ben think they’re in a position to smash that window open this season and probably quite a bit more going forward if it somewhat worked.
Yeah with everything going on I’d think Bauer would be getting more attention… hes gotten some but seems like everyone turned away pretty quickly. But baseball wise, you will be hard pressed to find anyone better at the “discount” price he’d probably take. Heck I wouldn’t’ be surprised if he would sign a 1y/5m deal if it was offered.
Cody I think he’ll be pretty average at minimum but probably better than average. second half of last season he tore it up even when you take into account his mini slump. 909 OPS the second half with over 300 PAs
Given he has been well above average over all 5 of seven seasons I think teams are willing to do long term but getting 300m i agree is a pretty big ask.
All Chapman has to do is have a decent first half and he’s tradeable, just like the Royals did last year.
Bauer will not be in MLB this year.
Bauer will be in MLB next year if
1. The AZ lawsuit is dismissed or ends in Bauer’s favor
2. No other actions against him are started.
3. He doesn’t destroy his reputation further.
Bellinger has a ton of red flags for a long term investment.
1. The ceiling for Bellinger is probably 4 WAR. The 2019 juiced ball season is a massive outlier. Last year’s 4 WAR campaign would still not make him elite. There are 6 or 7 center fielders who are better (when healthy) than Bellinger right now, even if last year was the standard for him moving forward.
2. His barrel rate, hard hit rate and average exit velocities were all poor last year. His max exit velocity (raw power) was average. his xwOBA was 43 points (absolutely huge) lower than where he actually performed and his career xwOBA is nearly identical to his actual. Basically, it really looks like a smoke and mirrors performance last year.
3. Bellinger does not have elite speed. He can cover CF right now, but he can’t afford to lose a step. OAA is the only metric which has Bellinger as a plus defender.
4. He had two terrible seasons before last year’s very nice rebound.
my limited understanding in the AZ case is that it is Civil and from my helicopter view is about as shady that was just settled generally in his favor.
The rest would likely conditions of any contract he may sign. He has said the past month or two that he is recognizing bad decisions and taking steps to improve… so he says. Hope its true. Might just trying to look better for a contract but he doesn’t come off as a guy who says things just to make things easier.
Evidence, logic and reason don’t matter in cases alleging sexual misconduct. All it takes a few jaded jurors or a bad judge to make an emotional connection to the plaintiff/complaintant.
That’s a tall order for Bauer. I think the A’s should shoot the works and sign him. What do they have to lose?
Both Bauer and his attorney admitted publicly to the actions. He did what she said he did. Their claim was they were consensual. Legally that is a “he said/she said” case and they rarely are prosecuted criminally.
MLB found he was guilty of not one, but 3 counts of violating MLB and MLBPA’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. All with different women.
Then an arbitration panel upheld MLB’s ruling that he violated that domestic violence policy, but reduced the penalty. They still determined that he absolutely did violate the policy. That is TWICE.
Then Bauer lost a defamation lawsuit that HE filed against a magazine. The court found the claims were valid.
Soon thereafter he dropped two other defamation cases he had filed. One for the Athletic adding just ONE word to an article, the word allegedly. The other against the woman who originally asked for a restraining order against him.
So Bauer will probably never pitch in the major leagues again and he doesn’t deserve to. He knowingly broke the rules and even if it was consensual, it is so far beyond what is socially acceptable behavior that no team will take the PR hit to sign him.
On the baseball side, his ERA in seasons he did not use sticky substances was not good. He was a back of the rotation starter without it. How do we know when he was cheating with sticky stuff? Bauer himself told us on Twitter and on YouTube. We don’t even have to look at spin rate info and guess. We know for sure because he was proud of it and told the world.
So lets recap:
Admimttedly a freak of a human that likes to hit women to get his rocks off.
Convicted by MLB, an arbitration panel on appeal, and by a court of law in a defamation lawsuit he filed.
A PR nightmare waiting to happen.
Not well liked by his teammates. Most viewed him as toxic.
Not a good pitcher unless he was able to cheat.
Thinks he deserves to be paid like a top 10 starter in MLB.
Yeah, somehow I don’t see him getting signed.
yes bauer did say some of the things were done, but the woman also said she had a knife to her neck. I think i read that action was in dispute.
MLB is not a legal authority. The mlb has rules that seem to be based on how much bad PR a player generates. The arbiter reduces his suspension basically for time served. As you said a lot of people don’t like his personality MLB didn’t like him even before all of this.
What was failed to mention in your wall of text is that there where claims filed against her for extortion and a year later she filed a claim against him. Trevor got repeated calls asking for large amounts of money and such from Trevor and he paid for the medical bills related to her saying she was pregnant
Defamation cases have quite a bit of barriers to cross depending on the situation and your public status. Dropping a claim of defamation case means nothing to me. As you know civil cases often do not care about the facts.
The fact they couldn’t even bring charges in any criminal fashion in any case says a lot. If it is as bad as they say you would think one of them would have gotten past the initial investigation. They have to investigate every one of these claims. There are two reasons for this. 1> they got nothing of substance. 2> if they charge him and lose he cannot be charged with it again so if someone stumbles on real actionable evidence before statutes of limitations are up they can then bring charges.
1: PR Nightmare – possibly/likely which is why a team who already has bad PR would be a good fit. Die Hards are the only ones who pay close attention and nearly all will continue to be a fan, more so when he pushes the team to win.
2. Trevor has a lot of people who do not like paying with him. he also has a decent sized group of people who like him. seems to be a lovem or hatem type guy.
3. He has been a great pitcher since 2018. Playing as a Mid rotation to Cy Young level since. He is continuing that in Japan. If he’s cheating no one would be surprised mostly because of all the accusations of current MLB pitchers cheating in recent years. yeah he could fall into that group. Before then he was an acceptable back end guy.
4. His PR will not give him a 30m AAV contract guarantee again. I don’t think there are any doubts of that from anywhere. Just baseball yeah he probably would get a 30M+ aav but as a whole package, no.
IMO: He should be in the MLB. Someone should offer him a contract with behavior stipulations. He should agree to any contract that pays him what he is making now or more. Teams should do a long term contract now with those stipulations. If he keeps clean then you got a good pitcher on a bargin. If he screws up well acceptable risk.
But you know, just like my opinion man.
It’s really about a group of sexually knowing people, and let not pretend there are not a lot of sex and groupies with professional sports = they surrounded and made a young man, Bauer, believe people did this and it is OK TO DO.
A GROUP OF ORGANISED PEOPLE got him to do it by.making him belive it is OK. They got away with. RUINING HIS LIFE.
Bauer is by himslef.and obviously trying figure out life with NO PROFESSIONAL.MENTOR.
PEOLLE USED TO LOOK OUT FOR ONE ANOTHER = ESPECIALLY THIER BROTHER BASEBALL PLAYER
NOT JUMP ON BOARD TO SCREW SOMEONE.
His agent must be.an.idiot for not.talking to him about things like this or at least someone along the line. Yes. I believe %100 he was set up.
He should have a job.
Bauer has not even had any return calls from teams. He is a pariah.
He was not a good pitcher without sticky stuff. High 4s ERA. Back of the rotation pitcher. Even without the PR nightmare that would come along with signing him, he is not worth $3-5 million when you can get a kid for the minimum to give you the same production.
“Bauer has not even had any return calls from teams. He is a pariah.”
What are you, his admninstrative assistant?
How would you know who his agents have or have not talked to?
“He was not a good pitcher without sticky stuff.”
True, he did use it. Just like Gerrit Cole and other active MLB pitchers did.
The only difference is, Bauer got out in front of it and asked Manfred to do something about it and braodcasting himself using it to prove his point. He couldn’t have been any louder about how those substances were affecting the game. He made Manfred look bad and forced his hand to do something (albeit for just a little bit) to save face. It was obviouis that Manfred took (and still takes) exception.
Gerrit Cole sat behind a press conference table as meekly as possible, cowered, and lied to everyone’s faces.
As Michael Jordan said, Stop it. Get some help.
Bauer said so. Said in essence that they were stupid because he was a top 15 pitcher in the world and they should be reaching out to him, not running from his agents calls.
Maybe pay attention to the horse’s mouth.
Bauer NEVER talked to Manfred. He even said so. What he did do is get on YouTube and Twitter and admit, even brag, about his own cheating. HUGE difference. Nothing he did forced Manfred’s hand in the matter. What it did was show his lack of ability to play in the league without cheating.
He is simply not a good pitcher unless he cheats. His own words prove that by telling when he didn’t cheat, his bad years, and when he did cheat, his few good years.
That you are trying to DEFEND cheating says all anyone needs to know about your lack of moral character.
I believe the Angels will sign one of the top 2 pitchers. Beyond that I really don’t know. Maybe the Cubs sign Bellinger if not I have no idea where he goes. Chapman maybe Giants if not no idea. Maybe the Rangers bring Montgomery back but I don’t think so. Yankees perhaps bring Montgomery back.
Boras has overplayed his hand. It’s now February teams are moving on and moving forward.
Blackpink :”Boras has overplayed his hand. It’s now February teams are moving on and moving forward”
EXACTLY…. and how sweet it is….. All four of those Top Guys still out there should fire his A$$ immediately…… and I guarantee all four would have a new team in a week.
.
Don’t we say this every year? “Boras has overplayed his hand” and every year some team blinks when spring training is about to start and makes him look like a genius.
Reds have two huge holes in an ace starting pitcher and a quality setup man in front of Diaz. You could say their RF situation is unsettled due to inexperience and cibstant injury too, but I suspect EDLC may eventually end up there with too many infielders around.
At any rate, there is still a gap between their max and where they are and there are obviously deals to be had as players are starting to sweat.
I’m completely mystified by all the dudes that want to sleep with Bauer. Like, seriously, move on, the rest of the league has.
@kellin
Are you saying that MLB doesn’t want some of the top talent playing in their league anymore? That’s too bad. I’ve been turned off a bit by their attitude towards top talent being rejected while allowing lesser talent who have criminal issues continue to play in the league. Strange take for the league.
Dudes want to sleep with Bauer? I’m not sure that is his interest??
Right? There seems to be an odd obsession with this one dude. I have my suspicions where it comes from, but I’d rather get back to my own obsession with the Giants dumping Joey Bart!
For sure. Years out of the league, in decline, can’t use the stickum. He won’t be near the pitcher he was. Key word, was.
I could give a rats A$$ about Bauer…. my problem is with the double talking two faced lying Commisioner Manfred who is doing his best to look just as corrupt as Roger Goodell.
@Cooperdooper7
The problem for Bauer isn’t the claims from the women, the MLB still allows guys like Aroldis Chapman, Marcell Ozuna, Domingo German, Roberto Osuna, Julio Urias, to play. It’s the fact that he exposed the MLB and ridiculed them, and Rob Manfred, just to turn around and win the Cy Young and get a record setting contract.
Montgomery likely resigns with Texas along with Belt. If Texas doesn’t sign these I think they should sign one of Boyd, Syndergard, Lauer, or Turnbull for depth and then trade Duran to Miami for Nardi or Puk. Belli back to Cubs, Chapman to SF, Snell to Angels, Soler to Boston, JD Martinez Cardinals or Twins.
Sounds about right
Tommy Pham reunion in San Diego? Still need a replacement for Soto to man Left Field for us 162 games.
Bellinger- Angels
Snell – Mets
Chapman – Cubs
Montgomery – Yankees
I think you may have it. Still think Montgomery goes back to the Rangers, but Yankees certainly can afford to pay him even with a 110% CBT tax on top of his salary.
Angles won’t sign another outfielder.
Article uses Cots and Fangraphs (Roster Resource) for their CBT numbers. Spotrac historically is most accurate. Their CBT numbers are about $10 million lower. Dodgers are at $298 mil (article above says $308 mill). Giants at $194 mil (article says $208). Another reason to question the writers accuracy is that he writes that the Dodgers are in 3rd straight year if being taxed. It’s the 4th straight year. At any rate, story accuracy is questionable
What does dipping under the CBT and their TV contract have to do with each other?
When the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox dipped under the CBT it was a smart thing but somehow for the Padres is financial constraints. Give me a break.
Padres didn’t lose money on TV and may have increased TV revenue overall. Neither did the Diamondbacks. The uncertainty might be an issue, but DSG going belly up is not.
This is ABSOLUTELY NOT why the Padres are cutting payroll.
“The Padres have been cutting spending this winter due to their TV deal collapsing and their past aggression putting them out of whack with the league’s debt-to-service ratio rule.”
The ONLY writer that brought up the debt service rule BS recanted the following day. MLB said that they were NOT in violation of that rule.
MLB paid the Padres 80% of the one payment from DSG that they missed in May of last year. After that they didn’t lose a penny and are making at a minimum the same money from TV and streaming as they did in 2023. We know that for an absolute fact because of filings in the DSG bankruptcy case.
If they end up under the CBT threshold its because the Padres want to revert to the lowest level of CBT penalties. Its smart business to do so every few seasons just like it was when the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox did it.
So when are you going to stop putting out complete misinformation MLBTR?
If Bob Nutting is serious about contending this season while increasing payroll, he’ll give Cherington enough dollars for the Pirates to sign Michael A Taylor who’s the perfect fit at as an elite defensive right-handed CF.
Suwinski showed last season he’s stretched in PNC’s large CF, Reynolds has never been more than a LF and Bae’s yet to prove he can hit MLB pitching despite showing he’s a better outfielder than 2B.
I know the Bucs still have holes at 1B and SP, but sorting out the OF defense is key for me.
As a Phillies fan, I’m really hoping Nutting gets off his duff and does what he can to make the Pirates competitive. I feel for Pirates fans.
The Pirates have an absolutely gorgeous park, and an excellent fanbse and they will SHOW UP when Nutting invests in the product.
So many good players that the Pirates have drafted have been traded off. It really is a shame. I do think having Chapman in the back with Bednar is a shot in the arm and a signal in the right direction that maybe this could be for real. I also agree with you that Taylor would be a good fit in CF. He doesn’t have a great bat, but he saves a lot of runs and has good speed.
Cashman and Dombrowski are the BEST in the game.
Both of them seem to be really good guys. I really don’t believe the Yankees are “the evil empire”.
The Tigers have taken advantage of thier loyal fansbase for 10 years.
3M to 1.5M
That’s why chemistry needs to exist between ownership and FO. Dombrowski seems to work well with Middleton in Philadelphia and Middleton has given him the power to make some good moves.
Also, thus far, he hasn’t really traded away much in terms of the future either to bring guys in on trades.
Not the Mets, Yankees, or Dodgers who are all over the Cohen Tax level of CBT and have been over the CBT for 3 years so would have to pay a 110% penalty for each dollar they spend on any additional players.
$30 million for Snell or Montgomery is really $63 million to those teams.
I think Chapman and Bellinger both end up on the Cubs. Chapman will secure an opt out for next season, Bellinger for the second season.
“Meanwhile” has to START the sentence; it can’t come in the middle, set off by commas.