The Opener

As we arrive at a major date on MLB’s offseason calendar, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Arbitration Exchange Deadline

The deadline for teams to exchange salary figures with players eligible for arbitration is set for today. The deadline was reportedly moved up from its original date of Friday, January 12 last month via joint agreement between MLB and the MLBPA, though news of the change only broke for the first time last night. A deadline for players and teams to come to contract agreements avoiding arbitration has been set for noon CT today, while salary figures will be exchanged by 7pm CT this evening. While teams and players can continue negotiating beyond the exchange of salary figures, teams have increasingly opted for a “file and trial” approach to arbitration in recent years, cutting off talks on pure one-year deals once figures are exchanged.

Today’s deadline should spur plenty of activity around the league throughout the day, as every team in baseball has at least two players with whom they’ll need to come to an agreement this afternoon or exchange salary figures with this evening. Most notably, each of the Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays, Yankees, Marlins, and Dodgers have ten or more such players. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arbitration-eligible players back in October. Yankees star outfielder Juan Soto leads the pack this year with a projected salary of $33MM that would break the record set by two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani last winter.

2. Could the market for starting pitching pick up soon?

With left-hander Shota Imanaga off the board after reportedly agreeing to a four-year, $53MM deal with the Cubs, could more movement on the starting pitching market be on the horizon? The trio of southpaws at the top of the starting pitching market this winter has been whittled down to two as only Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain available, though it doesn’t appear that either player is close to signing at the moment. That said, rumors have begun to pick up in recent days regarding right-hander Marcus Stroman, who is generally regarded as one of the better arms still on the board. Meanwhile, White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease remains the focus of the rumor mill in terms of trade candidates as all indications point toward a deal coming together in the coming weeks even as the club’s reported asking price for their top starter remains quite hefty.

3. Kuhnel exiting DFA limbo:

Astros right-hander Joel Kuhnel was designated for assignment last week after the club claimed fellow righty Declan Cronin off waivers from the White Sox. Today marks one week since Kuhnel’s DFA, meaning a resolution is expected sometime today. Kuhnel, 29 next month, spent his entire career in Cincinnati prior to a cash deal shipping him to Houston back in June. The righty sports a lackluster 6.02 ERA in 76 career appearances at the big league level, though his 4.55 career FIP improves his overall resume somewhat. While Kuhnel’s 19.3% strikeout rate is nothing to write home about, he does sport an impressive 52.5% groundball rate for his career. That could spur an interested club to take a chance on Kuhnel, claiming him off waivers and adding him to their own 40-man roster. If no team opts to do so, the Astros can attempt to outright the right-hander to Triple-A as non-roster depth, though Kuhnel would have the ability to reject such an assignment after previously being outrighted by the Reds back in 2020.

As the offseason continues to trundle along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Imanaga contract to be finalized:

Left-hander Shota Imanaga reached an agreement with the Cubs last night, as first reported by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, but there’s still plenty of information surrounding the deal that’s yet to come to light. The deal is pending a physical, which is expected to happen today. In addition to Imanaga’s physical, today could bring clarity regarding the specific terms of the arrangement between the sides. Reporting has indicated that the deal guarantees Imanaga just $30MM over two years and involves a complex series of options as well as incentives that could bring the total guarantee to around $80MM over a longer term.

More complex contract structures have become more commonplace in recent years with examples ranging from San Diego’s arrangement with right-hander Michael Wacha last year to superstar outfielder Julio Rodriguez’s extension with the Mariners. Even so, it’s something of a surprise to see Imanaga agree to a two-year commitment. Many in the industry believed he’d surpass Kodai Senga’s five-year deal with the Mets, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote just last week that some executives around the sport expected the left-hander to top $100MM. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM deal for the left-hander heading into the offseason.

2. Jordan Hicks’ market:

Right-hander Jordan Hicks is perhaps the best right-handed relief option on the market and arguably the market’s second-best bullpen arm behind relief ace Josh Hader. It appears the bidding for the flamethrowing righty’s services may be gaining steam, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicated yesterday evening that the market for Hicks has begun to pick up. Hicks has been connected to plenty of teams this offseason including the Yankees, Astros, Rangers, Red Sox, and Angels. Hicks, whom MLBTR predicted would land a deal worth four years and $40MM this offseason, combined a 28.4% strikeout rate with a 58.3% groundball percentage and would be a strong addition to virtually any club’s late-inning mix. Will the movement on his market lead to a signing in the near future?

3. Llovera exiting DFA limbo:

Red Sox right-hander Mauricio Llovera was designated for assignment back on January 3 to make room for fellow righty Lucas Giolito on the club’s 40-man roster. Today marks one week since Llovera was DFA’d, meaning a resolution is expected sometime today. The right-hander, 28 in April, made his big league debut with the Phillies back in 2020 and since then has spent time in the Giants and Red Sox organizations with a career 5.80 ERA and 5.29 FIP in 59 career big league innings.

While those numbers are nothing to write home about, it’s worth noting that he’s excelled in Triple-A in recent years, with a 2.82 ERA and 25.9% strikeout rate at the level since the start of the 2021 season. If a team is sufficiently intrigued by that performance, they could claim him on waivers and add him to their own 40-man roster. Should the Red Sox manage to sneak him through waivers, they’ll have the opportunity to assign him outright to the minor leagues where he can act as non-roster depth for Boston headed into the 2024 campaign. Llovera has previously been outrighted, however, giving him the right to reject a second outright assignment in favor of free agency.

As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. What’s next for the Rays?

The Rays pulled off a pair of trades over the weekend, shipping out right-hander Andrew Kittredge and outfielder Luke Raley in exchange for outfielder Richie Palacios and infielder Jose Caballero. The moves added an optionable lefty bat and shortstop depth to the mix in Tampa, and it appears the Rays may not be finished; they’re reportedly shopping DH/first baseman/outfielder Harold Ramirez as well. If the Rays can successfully move Ramirez, it could allow the club to address other areas of need on its roster.

Rotation depth is a concern for the Rays because of injuries to Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs and Shane McClanahan last season — not to mention the Tyler Glasnow trade last month — but the biggest weakness in Tampa appears to be behind the plate. The Rays currently have Rene Pinto, a 27-year-old backstop with just 63 games of big league experience, penciled in as their starting catcher. The backup catcher spot on the roster sports even less certainty, with non-roster options like Rob Brantly and Alex Jackson currently slated to try and win the job this spring.

2. Signings to be made official:

Sunday saw a pair of the offseason’s Top 50 free agents find new homes, as left-hander Sean Manaea signed with the Mets on a two-year deal while outfielder Teoscar Hernandez landed with the Dodgers on a one-year pact. Those deals have not yet been made official, but once they are, both the Dodgers and Mets will need to make corresponding 40-man roster moves to make room for their newest additions. That typically comes in the form of designating a player near the back of a club’s 40-man for assignment, though teams will oftentimes try to work out a minor trade to recoup some value while cleaning up their roster. The Dodgers themselves pulled off this sort of maneuver last month by swapping a pair of players on the 40-man roster to the Yankees in exchange for prospect Trey Sweeney, who does not require a 40-man spot of his own.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

Now that 2024 is upon us, are there any questions burning in your mind about the offseason with Spring Training a matter of weeks away? Are you wondering what’s next for your favorite team, or perhaps curious about what the market for a particular free agent looks like? If so, tune in this afternoon when MLBTR’s Steve Adams hosts a live chat with readers at 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to join in on the chat once it begins or read the transcript after its completed.

As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. What’s next for the Dodgers?

The Dodgers added a big bat to their lineup yesterday evening, agreeing to sign Teoscar Hernandez to a one-year deal. The addition of Hernandez solidifies their outfield mix of James Outman, Jason Heyward, Manuel Margot, and Chris Taylor, allowing Mookie Betts to stay on the infield dirt on a regular basis headed into the 2024 campaign. The addition of Hernandez takes the club’s luxury tax payroll to just under $303MM, per RosterResource. Now that the club has surpassed the final luxury tax threshold for 2024, could more additions be on the horizon?

While the club’s positional group seems largely set, an addition at shortstop who can provide more certainty than the club’s current tandem of Gavin Lux and Miguel Rojas would certainly make sense. On the pitching side of things, another starter who can slot into the Opening Day rotation could allow the Dodgers to be more careful with their deployment of Walker Buehler in his first full season following his second career Tommy John surgery. Beyond that, the club has yet to make any changes of note to its bullpen mix, and longtime franchise stalwart Clayton Kershaw remains unsigned, though the veteran lefty won’t return to the mound until sometime this summer following shoulder surgery earlier this winter.

2. Will the Mariners continue retooling their roster?

The Mariners have altered the look of their lineup this winter after beginning the offseason with a focus on improving the club’s contact skills. By parting ways with Hernandez, Mike Ford, Eugenio Suarez, and Jarred Kelenic, Seattle made room for the additions of Luke Raley, Mitch Haniger, Luis Urias, and Mitch Garver while also shedding the remaining years on underwater contracts for Evan White and Robbie Ray.

The club’s corner outfield duo of Raley and Haniger sport question marks, however, as does the infield duo of Urias and Josh Rojas. Raley got off to a strong start in 2023 but petered out to slash just .200/.270/.380 over the season’s final two months. Meanwhile, Haniger posted a wRC+ of just 73 last year and has gotten into just 118 games across the past two seasons. On the infield, Urias and Rojas both appear to be best served in platoon roles. The addition of an infielder capable of playing everyday and perhaps another part-time outfielder would go a long way to rounding out the club’s offense, but the Mariners have seeming operated on a tight budget this winter. Do they have room for additional finishing touches?

3. The clock is ticking on Imanaga:

Left-hander Shota Imanaga, ranked No. 10 on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, is entering the final stretch of his window to sign with MLB clubs after being posted by his NPB team, the Yokohama DeNA BayStars. Imanaga’s posting window will come to a close on Thursday, meaning just four days remain for the southpaw to sign with a big league club. There’s little question about whether he’ll be able to find a team given the interest he’s received from teams like the Giants, Red Sox, and Cubs this winter.

That being said, it remains up in the air not only which club the lefty will ultimately sign with, but what sort of guarantee he’ll land. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM deal for Imanaga this winter, but reports last month indicated his market could be pushing toward a $100MM guarantee. Will Imanaga secure a nine-figure deal in the coming days? Any deal a club signs with Imanaga would come with an additional posting fee for the BayStars, which could cost around $16.9MM if Imanaga does land a $100MM deal before his posting window comes to a close.

Here are three things we’re watching around the baseball world today…

1. Pitching market heating up?

There’s less than six weeks to go until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training and still plenty of moves left to be made, meaning the offseason has to pick up momentum soon. Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto seemed to holds things up for a while, then the holidays put things on pause. Now that all that is settled, there’s plenty of smoke starting to appear around guys like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Shota Imanaga and Dylan Cease, meaning things could be about to get hectic.

2. Yankees in the spotlight:

It appears the Yankees are set to be one of the most aggressive clubs in that pitching market. They missed on Yamamoto and traded away a bunch of pitching depth in the Juan Soto deal, leaving them looking to bolster their rotation before the offseason is done. Will they be able to make a big splash in the coming weeks?

3. Arbitration deals upcoming:

January 12 is the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures for the upcoming season. With that date just a week away, there may be some deals that get locked down in the preceding days. Many clubs have a “file and trial” approach where they won’t do a deal after the filing deadline, so it can serve as a sort of ticking clock for any player that wants to avoid a hearing.

Here are three things we’re monitoring in the baseball world today…

1. Teoscar nearing decision?

A couple of reporters yesterday, Marino Pepén and Moises Fabian, suggested that the market for Teoscar Hernández is nearing resolution. The Red Sox, Dodgers and Angels have been connected to the slugger and it seems those three teams are still at the table. Hernández is coming off a bit of a down year but it’s possible that the pitcher-friendly home park in Seattle played a role in that. From 2020 to 2022, he hit .283/.333/.519 for the Blue Jays for a 133 wRC+. After being traded to the Mariners, he hit just .258/.305/.435 for a 105 wRC+ last year, but he had a 126 wRC+ on the road and 81 at home.

2. One week left for Imanaga:

Left-hander Shota Imanaga’s posting window is open until January 11, giving him just one more week to work out a deal with interested clubs. Reporting from yesterday suggested that the Yankees may not be that excited about the southpaw, though clubs like the Giants, Red Sox and Cubs appear to still be in the mix. Imanaga has a 3.18 ERA over his career in Nippon Professional Baseball but is coming off two straight seasons at 2.80 or lower.

3. Extended DFA limbo continues:

Players designated for assignment are normally required to have resolution within a week but this clock is paused between Christmas and New Year’s. As mentioned in yesterday’s Opener, right-hander Ryan Jensen was been waiting to find out his status since December 20 and no news arrived before end of day yesterday. Just behind him, catcher Donny Sands and infielder Diego Castillo were designated for assignment December 22 and are still waiting for answers.

As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things worth keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Go, Padres nearing deal?

It was reported yesterday evening that right-hander Woo Suk Go of the Korea Baseball Organization’s LG Twins was nearing a deal with the Padres. According to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News, Go reportedly took a flight to San Diego overnight to finalize the deal with the Padres. Go’s posting window expires this afternoon at 4pm CT, meaning an announcement should come today if a deal is completed. In addition to Go’s salary, the Padres would be responsible for a posting fee paid to the LG Twins as compensation for Go’s services. Go, who sports a 2.39 ERA over 275 1/3 innings of work since the start of the 2019 season, figures to occupy a late-inning role for the Padres alongside fellow overseas signing Yuki Matsui.

2. Blue Jays presser:

As noted by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins is expected to address the media at 9am CT this morning followed by recent signings Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa later in the day. The press conference comes on the heels of a December that saw the Blue Jays connected to many of the league’s top free agents including Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cody Bellinger, and Matt Chapman. Since then, however, Toronto has come up short in their bids for both Ohtani and Yamamoto while the signings of Kiermaier and Kiner-Falefa seemingly cast doubt on the club’s odds of landing Bellinger to play center field or reuniting with Chapman at third base. Will today’s presser provide additional clarity regarding Toronto’s pursuits of a the two biggest bats left on the market?

3. Jensen resolution incoming?

Right-hander Ryan Jensen was designated for assignment by the Marlins two weeks ago to make room for right-hander Roddery Munoz on the 40-man roster after Miami acquired him from the Pirates in a minor trade. Typically, a player can only be DFA’d for seven days before they must be assigned, but the clock is paused for the week between Christmas and New Year’s. That would leave Jensen likely to see a resolution to his DFA sometime today. The former first-round pick has been claimed off waivers twice in the past six months, but if the he passes through waivers successfully the Marlins can outright Jensen to Triple-A and retain him in the organization headed into the 2024 season without utilizing a 40-man roster spot.

Here are three things we’re watching around baseball as 2024 kicks into gear…

1. Offseason set to ramp up?

There have been some massive news stories this offseason, such as the record-setting deals for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as well as the Juan Soto trade, but it has undoubtedly been slow on the whole. 28 of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents are still unattached, including big names like Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Josh Hader. There’s also plenty of notable guys in the lower tiers still out there, a handful of expected trades that have to be finished and a batch of arbitration salaries that need to be sorted out. Many of the top spenders were focused on Ohtani for a long time and then pivoted to Yamamoto, but by the time both agreed to terms with the Dodgers, it was almost time for the holiday break. With those holidays now over, there’s just six weeks until players start reporting for Spring Training and a lot of work to do, meaning the ice has to crack soon.

2. What’s next for the Boston rotation?

The Red Sox have had upgrading their rotation as a priority all winter. They finally made a move by signing Lucas Giolito last week, but then traded Chris Sale to Atlanta the very next day. That leaves them with Giolito, followed by options like Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock. Is there another move coming in the next few weeks?

3. Will the Cubs finally leap into action?

The Cubs have arguably been the least active club this winter, at least in terms of results. Yesterday, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at each club’s free agent spending thus far this offseason and the Cubs were one of four yet to spend any money at all. The other three have been active in different ways, with the Yankees trading for Soto, Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo, the Marlins acquiring Christian Bethancourt and Vidal Bruján, and the Rockies having traded for Cal Quantrill. The Cubs have been connected to many big names, both in free agency and the trade market, but haven’t been able to land anything yet.

Activity in the baseball world could pick up this week as the holiday season nears its end. A few things to keep an eye on with the beginning of 2024:

1. Unofficial contracts

A few free agent signings have yet to be made official. That’s not uncommon for late-December agreements, as holiday plans can lead some players or teams to hold off on physicals that will put the finishing touch on a contract. The Pirates have yet to announce their $8MM deal with left-hander Martín Pérez from two weeks back, while the White Sox haven’t finalized their $4MM signing of catcher Martín Maldonado. Starters Lucas Giolito (Red Sox), Frankie Montas (Reds) and Zach Plesac (Angels) agreed to deals in the last few days that haven’t been made official. Pittsburgh, Chicago, Cincinnati and Los Angeles all have 40-man rosters that are at capacity, so they’ll need to make corresponding trades or DFA once those acquisitions are announced.

2. DFA resolutions

On the other side of the equation, a handful of players have awaited resolution on their status. Teams typically have a week to trade or waive someone they had designated for assignment. That clock is paused between Christmas and New Year’s, leaving a few players with an unusually long stay in DFA limbo. Max Castillo, who was DFA by the Royals on December 19, has spent the past two weeks with that uncertainty. Ryan Jensen (Marlins), Donny Sands (Tigers) and Diego Castillo (Diamondbacks) should all receive clarity on their status by the end of this week. More recent DFAs like Bryan Hudson (Dodgers), Bubba Thompson (Reds) and Declan Cronin and Carlos Pérez (both White Sox) may also be traded or placed on waivers in the next couple days.

3. Rodríguez Nearing Decision?

Cuban right-hander Yariel Rodríguez is one of the more intriguing entrants on this year’s pitching market. The 26-year-old dominated while working out of the bullpen for NPB’s Chunichi Dragons in 2022. He didn’t pitch after last year’s World Baseball Classic while awaiting an MLB opportunity, which will come this winter. Teams are divided on Rodríguez’s future as a starting pitcher, but he has a high-octane arsenal that should land him a notable multi-year pact as an upside play. ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reported on Friday that Rodríguez was close to making a decision, suggesting the Blue Jays had emerged as his top suitor. Will there be an agreement by the end of the week?

Here are three things we’re watching in the baseball world today…

1. End of 2023:

2023 is winding down, with today being the last weekday of the year. The past 12 months saw Japan win the World Baseball Classic and the Rangers win the World Series. Various rule changes were introduced, with a pitch clock, larger bases and limitations on defensive shifts. Along the way, Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first 40/70 player, Adam Wainwright got his 200th win and each of Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel notched their 400th save. The offseason has seen the Dodgers give record-setting deals to Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. What surprising and amazing feats does 2024 have in store?

2. Pirates need a roster spot:

The Pirates have a full 40-man roster and have yet to make their agreement with lefty Martín Pérez official. That means they will need to open a spot for him somehow, which could lead to a trade or perhaps someone simply being designated for assignment.

3. What will the Red Sox do?

The Red Sox have mostly made modest moves so far this offseason, such as flipping out Alex Verdugo and bringing in Tyler O’Neill. But they’ve also been connected to notable free agents like Ohtani, Yamamoto, Teoscar Hernández, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell and many more. Will any of this interest come to fruition in the coming months?