Astros right-hander Justin Verlander began this year on the injured list but is nearing a return. Manager Joe Espada told members of the beat, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that Verlander will throw a bullpen tomorrow and is scheduled to make a rehab start for Triple-A Sugar Land on Sunday if the bullpen goes as planned. The club believes only two rehab starts will be necessary, lining the righty up to join the major league club in about two weeks.
Rotation health has been a key focus for the Astros for quite a while now. Both Luis Garcia Jr. and Lance McCullers Jr. underwent surgery last year and are still working towards getting healthy. In the spring, each of Verlander, José Urquidy and Shawn Dubin suffered injuries that prevented them from making the Opening Day roster. In Verlander’s case, some shoulder soreness slowed his ramp-up early in spring and put him a bit behind schedule.
That left the Astros with a rotation consisting of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, JP France and Ronel Blanco. That group has been throwing well, with Blanco throwing a no-hitter on Monday, but the club is 1-5 regardless with the bullpen responsible for all five of those losses. France is currently on the paternity list but expected back with the team shortly.
The 41-year-old Verlander wasn’t quite able to replicated his 2022 Cy Young-winning form but had a strong season in 2023 nonetheless. After posting a 1.75 earned run average in 2022, that number jumped to 3.22 last year. Perhaps more concerning, his 27.8% strikeout rate fell to 21.5% while his walk rate dropped from 4.4% to 6.7%. Maintaining that excellent form was going to be a tough task, especially as Verlander pushes beyond his 40th birthday, but he managed to still post strong results.
When Verlander is back, the Astros may have to make a tricky call of who to bump out. Each of the five starters currently in the rotation has options, but Valdez and Javier are well established in the big leagues at this point. Brown has 180 innings on his major league track record now with a 4.50 ERA but better peripherals. He has struck out 26.9% of batters faced, walked 8.4% and kept 54.5% of balls in play on the ground. His 4.06 FIP and 3.65 SIERA suggest better results may be possible going forward. France has a 3.87 ERA in 142 major league innings while Blanco has a 4.14 ERA in just 67 1/3 frames but, as mentioned, he just threw a no-hitter a couple of days ago.
Verlander is in the final guaranteed year of the contract he signed with the Mets but he’ll have a $35MM player option for 2025 if he can throw 140 innings this year. As part of last year’s deadline trade, the Mets agreed to cover $35MM of Verlander’s 2023 and 2024 salaries as well as half of the player option if it vests.
Mets are praying for setbacks!
Amen
His chances of hitting 140 innings are pretty slim.
Why? He was injured for a chunk of last year and still pitched 162 innings. And he pitched 175 the previous season. I would bet the over here.
You’re talking two weeks before he debuts. He will be on short leash for a month. His injuries are becoming more and more frequent. The Astros have starters and can skip starts or throw in a 6th pitcher when needed. The team just doesn’t need him to be a workhorse until October.
Two weeks from now is April 17th. You realize he didn’t debut until May last year, right? And everything you’re saying about a ‘short leash’ was equally true then. Yet he still blew through 140 innings. To say his chances are ‘pretty slim’ is a statement based more on your feelings than on Verlander’s record.
He averaged 6 innings a start last year. If he hits 25 starts this year (27 last year and 28 the year before), he’ll hit it easy.
You’re talking about a 41 year old that keeps having injuries pop up. The Astros want to win a World Series and need him healthy for October rather than be a work horse now. Your whole argument is based on ifs. Mine is not. And you do realize 6×25=150 and that was your best case scenario.
If he makes 25 starts, it’s very doable, but we’ll see.
I wish nothing but the best for Verlander. One of the great pitchers of this generation. Mets should have held onto him but made a panicked move and traded him.
No they shouldn’t have. Wait until until you see the two players they got back. They are pretty good.
Just in time for the playoff push. Astros only 3 games back of the division and top WC spot.
43 wins shy of 300. I could see him hanging in there 3-4 more seasons to get there and pitching into his mid-40s like Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson. For comparison, Johnson only had 246 wins after his age-40 season.
Verlander appears to have a noticeably bigger skull.
And the face is puffier – maybe it’s an android!
Years gone by 150 innings was nothing. So, we’ll see where he’s at. That’s big money if he can do it.
Still hard to fathom that starters in 40’s and 50’s got 350 innings per year.