The Padres overhauled much of the roster as they navigated payroll constraints last winter. The outfield was more stripped down than retooled, as San Diego traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to both offload Soto’s massive arbitration salary and address a pitching staff that lost four possible starters to free agency. While San Diego subsequently poked around the free agent and trade markets for outfield help, the payroll limitations led them to enter camp with two question marks alongside Fernando Tatis Jr.
Within a couple weeks of exhibition play, it became clear the Padres were going to turn left and center field to Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill, respectively. San Diego signed Profar for a barely more than the league minimum in mid-February. Merrill was a 20-year-old shortstop prospect who had never played above Double-A nor logged any game reps in center field before Spring Training. That outfield alignment at least carried ample risk. At worst, it might be the difference between making and missing the postseason for a fringe Wild Card contender.
Through two months, San Diego’s outfield has instead been its biggest strength. Tatis isn’t the same player he was before injuries and a failed PED test wiped out his 2022 season, but he’s an above-average regular. Merrill is hitting at a league average level and playing plus defense at his new position, remarkable work for a player less than three years removed from high school. Yet it’s Profar who has been by far the biggest contributor. He has not only been San Diego’s best player, he’s one of the top performers in the National League.
Profar is hitting .323/.421/.495 across 233 plate appearances. He has hit eight home runs, one shy of the total he managed in 125 games between the Rockies and San Diego last year. Profar is drawing walks at a personal-high 13.3% clip while keeping his strikeout rate at a customarily low 14.2% mark. He’s hitting the ball harder than he has at any point in his career. This season’s 41% hard contact percentage is almost 10 points higher than last year’s middling 31.7% rate.
There’ll very likely be some amount of regression in the next few months. Profar isn’t going to keep pace with the likes of Soto, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman all season. His career has been defined by wild swings in performance. Profar was a slightly above-average hitter in 2018, ’20 and ’22. His performance in the intervening odd seasons was at or below replacement level. Yet this year’s production is unprecedented even for an extremely high-variance player. Before this year, Profar’s career-best OPS over any 59-game span was an .876 mark he managed in the second half of 2018 while a member of the Rangers (h/t to the Baseball Reference Span Finder). This season’s .916 is 40 points higher.
Profar has already more than made good on San Diego’s $1MM investment. Even if his bat were to completely crater in the next few months, bringing him back would be a win for the Padres. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has long valued Profar more than the rest of the league (and most outside observers) would.
He made a surprising three-year, $21MM bet on the former top prospect during the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego brought him back last fall after Profar played his way off a Rockies team on its way to 103 losses. They didn’t bring in another left fielder to push Profar to the bench this spring. That’s largely because of financial constraints, of course, but San Diego also balked at what proved to be a $3MM price point for Tommy Pham while spending similar salaries on Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui and Woo-Suk Go. Preller certainly wouldn’t have anticipated Profar being the team’s best hitter, but it’s probably fair to say he had higher expectations for his left fielder than almost anyone else did.
San Diego heads into the weekend with a 30-29 record that has them in the third Wild Card spot in the National League. They’re still a borderline contender whose season could go a number of ways in the next few months. It would likely take a major collapse for them to sell at the trade deadline, so Profar should play the entire season in San Diego. He’ll return to free agency next offseason going into his age-32 campaign.
Profar has not previously received a qualifying offer, so he would be eligible for the QO if the Padres hang onto him all year. While it seems unlikely the Padres would put a one-year offer worth more than $20MM on the table, it’s not entirely out of the question depending on well Profar hits in the second half. If he hits the market unencumbered by draft compensation, he could land the biggest guarantee of his career. He’s at least trending toward a two-year deal and would have an argument for a three-year pact in the Jeimer Candelario ($45MM) or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($42MM with an opt-out) range if his bat doesn’t wilt down the stretch.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Why even include to bit about a QO, I’d bet my life savings, house, and a kidney he won’t get one
The chances are low, but if he keeps playing like this it could absolutely happen.
Fortunately, you have two kidneys.
On pace for a 6-WAR season in that ballpark. Also a Boras client so you almost know where he what he will be advised to do if his breakout continues and SD offers him a QO. That being said, can SD afford that gamble?
The CBT reset will be done. Let’s just see how Pro wraps it up.
“If his breakout continues”…Is it really a “breakout” when a 31 year old, very inconsistent player in his 9th+ year of service is having a good 6-8 week stretch?…S.D would have to be nuts to give Profar a QO and that being said, Profar would be completely insane to turn it down if they did. Profar has played in parts of 13 seasons and that tells you a LOT more about his talent(and career)than any good(or bad)6-8 week stretch.
mlb fan
Luckily they don’t have to make that decision after 6-8 weeks. They get the full season to decide.
@rundmc1981 If you know he’s going to decline it you don’t have to “afford” anything.
Tigers – because the QO is in play and the article lead into the end of season decisions of both sides and well, he is eligible for QO.
No, I don’t think it’s likely at 20 mil but you really can’t fault thee author for putting in all relevant factors.
I can see a scenario where he plays his way into one.
His original contract with the Padres sucked massively. He was way overpaid for two of the years. But, when he knew he was going into left field, he put in the work over winter with Fernando Ringworm Jr’s dad a couple of years ago and really improved. The dude worked. It also appears that he’s not a clubhouse cancer, but a clubhouse cheerleader unlike Tommy Pham and Juan Soto.
Good for him!
Crikes,
Your belief that Pro was “massively overpaid” isn’t supported by his stats. Most fans had a problem with the series of player options but at the end of each year he was never “massively overpaid”.
Profar is a favorite of the fans, AJ Preller and the entire clubhouse. Not only has he played very well on the field but he is a very positive influence in the clubhouse and always has a smile on his face. He has helped Jackson Merrill so much and having Fernando in RF makes the outfield pretty solid. He would prefer to stay in San Diego and given the fact there really isn’t much OF talent in the minors I can see him getting an offer that works for both sides
“Favorite of the fans..positive influence in the clubhouse…helped Jackson Merrill”…You must be in the clubhouse nightly to have such inside sources. You seemingly know more about players than the coaches and trainers that work with them everyday.
I was kind of curious about how often 3 Finger was in the clubhouse, and how often he discussed these things with Merrill.
They talk about it all the time on the San Diego broadcasts. You wouldn’t know that if you only read headlines on this site.
“San Diego broadcasts”…The media, including the sports media, generally tells you what you want to hear and what they want you to believe. There’s no media in America, that can actually be relied on for non bias, accuracy and truth.
Anyone who watches and follows San Diego baseball knows the presence profar has in the dugout. There’s literally no reason for the San Diego broadcasters to lie about it. You made a dumb comment trying to call out the OP – now go away.
“Now go away”..Maybe I shouldn’t ruin your fantasy world where you pretend to know the people on tv personally and believe the media is only there for truth.
Go put some ice on that face plant, loser.
@El Niño Don’t bother with @mlb fan. He’s one of the biggest condescending asshats on this site and is never wrong when getting called out for his repeated ignorance.
LOL,
It would appear that I know quite a bit more than you do, doesn’t it?
You don’t know me or what I do so just sit back and enjoy being MLB fan.
Sorry but this was directed at MLB Fan
What was wrong with PHam and Soto in the clubhouse?
Liberal,
I think most fans agree that Pham was a headcase. Always ready to “throw down” (his words) and sometimes it was reported that included his teammates if he deemed it necessary. I recall him running over Kim on a pop up and he took the attitude that he was the vet and he owned it (as opposed to most feeling like a SS calling a pop up had the right of way).
There are reports on the internet of his demeanor should you desire to look.
Soto – I think it was just that he came off as a “me first” teammate but not that he was a bad guy when he performed / backed it up. The problem was he had more months in SD not backing it up than typical Soto numbers. Finished strong in 23 for sure and wasn’t the problem on that 23 team but overall he wasn’t the same statistically while in SD. I think maybe he just wasn’t personable like a bunch of the other guys in the clubhouse – Affaro, Tatis, Profar, Kim, a few of the pitchers even. Yet, not “bad”.
Pham was a head case and failed to produce. There is a reason why he has been on so many different teams of late and why he didn’t have a bidding war for his services.
Liberal – as of right on cue, check out Pham’s ridiculous path to Contreras as home instead of going toward the plate today. AND then Pham was upset at Contreras like he did something wrong!
This is just typical Pham condict all around and his teammates were not exempt.
“There’s a reason why I do so much fighting in the off-season. I’m always ready to f—k someone up”
Tommy Pham post game quote today.
Beware of any pending FA whose only really good year is a contract year.
“Beware of…is a contract year”…Especially Boras guys, whose specialty is big on-field contract years and early retirement, low energy, effort and playing time of all subsequent years of any long term contract they sign.
Low energy and effort, huh? You have absolutely no idea how much effort or energy a player put forth. Here, I’ll use your own words to show how ridiculous your assumptions are.
“You must be in the clubhouse nightly to have such inside sources. You seemingly know more about players than the coaches and trainers that work with them everyday.”
65% of season left to play. Let it play.
I remember Padres fans complaining about just needing good LF to be a really good team. Well they have one and they are still average…..
A playoff spot is a playoff spot. Pads have the #5 spot as we speak.
Average can go all the way to the World Series these days.
Great start but is it sustainable.
I remember when the Dodgers signed Devon White to a (then) big money multi-year contract after a career year in Arizona in ’98 and then his numbers reverted to his career norms. I doubt the Padres or anyone else spends big on Profar but a two year deal probably won’t hurt anyone
Rsox
Devon White to JP is a weird comparison
The comparison is sometimes making too much out of a career year and as such overpaying for unsustainable production
The ability finally catching up to the attitude ? Good on him. Don’t enjoy his presence at all when the Giants play the Padres.
Fernando tatis is the most overrated player in mlb
Obs in the high 700s and great defense in the least or 2nd least skilled position doesn’t make a perennial all star
A 4 WAR player is certainly in the running for being an All Star
“Most overrated player”…Even factoring in his decline from stopping PEDs, Tatis is a pretty darn good player. He’s probably the only big ticket player on the Pads that isn’t in MAJOR decline and possessing the body type and “athleticism” of a 50 year old man. 1.5 yrs from now Tatis will be the only big ticket player S.D doesn’t regret signing. Tatis isn’t the next coming, but he’s athletic, young and a pretty good player.
I think 2021 compared to 2023-24 is a major decline, people give tatis the best player in the league treatment but now he is just a slightly above average bat that makes WAR like him
Profar should not have ever left
“Should not have ever left”…If Scott Boras thinks he can make another $1000(new deals get new commissions)in commissions, he’ll advise the player to move his self and his family to Colorado to make about the same money he was already making in S.D.
Yes he should have he made more money.
I love how they try to cover every scenario. I swear I read that part in Pinocchio’s voice from Shrek…hahaha
Trade him to the Yankees for Spencer Jones at the deadline then bring him back as a FA next offseason lol.
And take Jasson Dominguez as well.
Profar isn’t going anywhere this year or next. He loves it’s in San Diego they will work out a team friendly deal at the end of the year.
Just a quick observation, and not a knock in any way to Profar. He is playing as well as could ever be expected, and if he wasn’t it would have been a justifiable gamble. I always gauge non major impact players based on a reasonable gamble. It is justifiable to gamble as long as the player doesn’t demand more than the price of the gable turning south. Good, surprise!!!!! Bad, oh well. PROFAR. (insert dozens of players names in post)
Biggest bargain in Baseball. Once the best prospect in Baseball has established himself as a solid player
It’s just baseball .
Profar find tatis unused stash in a secret removable panel in the back of a locker?
While I certainly don’t imagine Profar’s a .400+ wOBA bat going forward, a .375 xwOBA in almost 250 PAs is legitimate; his average exit velocity is up 3 MPH over his career average. I’m guessing Preller offers him something in the neighborhood of 3Y, $12-15M AAV with two opt outs on the low end and only one on the high end. It’s very clear to see the difference in his swing after working with Tatis Sr., and his IFFB% has him at the end of the top tertile (a little less than half his career rate).
As for Tatis Jr., the negative gap between his wOBA and xwOBA is nearly 66% greater than the positive gap between Profar’s wOBA and xwOBA. I can’t imagine the former ends another season with a .330 wOBA while his batted ball metrics show him lacing the ball.
Straight – I would consider myself pro Profar as I’ve posted for years going back to his first signing with SD as being at a minimum, ok with him in LF at his salary. That said, looking at 4 years of SD time (assuming at least some regression but not tanking in 24), I’m satisfied but hope he doesn’t get a 36-45 mil commitment from Preller. I’d go for 1 year a little high or 2 at that depending on how Pauley and a few other prospects are developing. That money could go to keeping Kim or finding a 1b assuming Cro shifts back to 2b in 25.
Give him “I like him money” but not “I love him money”!
1 year you might be looking at QO territory which might work in the Padres favor. I’m guessing Preller will keep kicking the can as far down the road as it will go with these lower-CBT deals. I’m hoping however the Padres swing it they can get Kim and Profar under contract for about $30M AAV combined.
With enough blind squirrels looking for nuts, eventually one will find one such nut.
Profar might find his way onto the NL All-Star Team.
And how much money is Profar’s agent giving MLBTR to write this player-friendly puff piece and help him get a better contract? There is no transaction news or rumor here. It’s just some stats regurgitated from publicly available sites to say “hey, my guy is good, let me try and get him an extension or more arb money.”
Just like the recent infusion of ad posts here, a shameless attempt to get dough. And yet another weak attempt by MLBTR to be like Fangraphs, who does it better and more comprehensively than this nine paragraph feebleness.
Stay in your line: you’re a transactions site, not a stats site. If he’s an extension candidate, then say it and talk about what it could look like. If you’re looking at his free agent market, talk about where he could go beyond just what kind of deal he could get. There is nothing novel about “ohhhh so-and-so is good, here are some stats I found that anyone would see if they check his Fangraphs/Statcast page.”