The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Dodgers signing Blake Snell (2:00)
- Baseball fans having Dodger fatigue and deferral fatigue (9:05)
- Are the Dodgers going to make more rotation additions? (14:30)
- The Dodgers extending Tommy Edman (16:25)
- The news of the Red Sox signing Aroldis Chapman breaks during recording (21:30)
- The Mets signing Frankie Montas (26:30)
- The Cubs signing Matthew Boyd (35:55)
- The Rangers signing Kyle Higashioka (43:15)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- What would the Pirates have to give to the Red Sox to get Triston Casas? (48:20)
- Why is Cody Bellinger‘s deal so tough for the Cubs to trade? (54:15)
Check out our past episodes!
- Yusei Kikuchi, The Aggressive Angels, And The Brady Singer/Jonathan India Trade – listen here
- The Rays’ Stadium Plans, Diamond Sports, And Some Offseason Rumors – listen here
- Roki Sasaki, Gerrit Cole’s Non-Opt-Out, And Cardinals Rumors – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Aroldis Chapman was an excellent signing! The Red Sox NOW need to focus on Starting Pitching by:
– Trading for Hunter Greene. He is a FRICKIN stud that would excel in a big market like Boston. Could Crawford, Casas, & Rafaela get it done?
– Trading for Crochet. Another FRICKIN stud that would excel in a big market like Boston. Could Abreu, Luis Perales, & Roman Anthony (yes I FRICKIN said RA) get it done?
2025 Starting Pitching:
– Houck RHP
– Greene RHP
– Crochet LHP
– Bello RHP
– Giolito RHP or Fitts RHP
2025 Closer: Aroldis Chapman LHP
This pitching staff would be FRICKIN exciting to watch!!
No way you’re getting Greene. You don’t want Chapman closing. He will drive you nuts.
1999 – A year ago I pleaded for the Sox to sign Chapman, I’m glad they finally did …. but the dude is gonna be 37 and has been nowhere near as good as 2012-2020. If the Sox truly intend to contend next year, they will need a proven shutdown closer and right now they don’t have one.
Crochet hasn’t proven a thing yet, let him pitch more than 146 innings for once and then we can start wondering if he will blossom into a great SP.
I’m with you on trading Rafaela, Crawford and Perales but hell no on Anthony.
As a small market team fan, I sincerely hope the Dodgers win the next ten World Series. If that what it takes to blow up baseball and get a practical financial system, then so be it.
I’m hoping for the Dodgers to sign all the big names FA’s (Fried, Soto, Burnes, every star Japanese player that wants to play in the MLB. Just for MLB to have to do something to save the league from imploding into 1 team buying Championships. Because when you have 26 out of 30 playing real payroll budget baseball, having 2 teams right now without major league stadiums how are the Dodgers going to make money when only 14,000 paying customers can watch them on the road who pays the lost revenue of the game to make the visiting team whole. Use to be that the visiting team would get 28 cents per ticket sold to walk up customers. No way Dodgers will make any money as a visiting team. Nope MLB has major issues, and the Dodgers are not helping correct the issues of equaling out the league when it comes to talent for these teams.
desertdawg;
Wait till fans of the 2 expansion teams to come realize that their owner(s) just spent $2-3 billion dollars to get a franchise…..and they’re a small market team…..LOL
Which is why finding owner(s) may not be as easy as posters here think it is.
dawg – Perhaps the same thing that happened to the 2013-2016 Yankees will happen to the Dodgers, getting saddled down with a bunch of overpaid underperformers.
Good talk about “dodger fatigue”. I think the main issues are these deferrals are seeming egregious and not in the spirit of the cba.
I personally don’t have much issue with it, since everyone can do it.
My issue is more along the lines of only about 5 teams are cash rich enough to be able to afford these large deferrals especially down the road when these payments are due. Dodgers have an advantage over others because of how much money they make. It is not good for baseball for all the best players to be on one team. Yea they may be the new “evil empire” team that everyone wants to beat but if they keep winning because of these signings, it is not fair.
The concept of “Dodger fatigue” should also include all the tiresome, repetitive, and often error-filled griping about the Dodgers. As far as the CBA goes, the letter and the spirit are one and the same. Contracts are not written with spirit, they are written as literal agreements governing what the contracting parties may and may not do. So long as they conduct themselves according to the terms of the contract, no spirit is violated.
The major issue with the reporting on the deferrals is they are written by sportswriters, when they should be written by someone with knowledge of finance. If this was done, more would understand that the real advantage the Dodgers hold in offering deferrals isn’t so much their financial resources as the team being owned by a hedge fund. This gives them direct access to investment instruments allowing them to easily beat the modest present value return built into the CBA. Teams with smaller budgets can do the same, if perhaps with smaller contracts, if they can confidently predict their ROI on the deferral set-asides.
As I’ve pointed out other times, MLB and the PA could easily reduce this advantage by raising the present value number and thus increasing the financial risk to teams offering deferrals. Presumably this can’t be done until the CBA comes up for renewal, and I wouldn’t bet on it happening then either. Either way, all of the teams, including the Dodgers, will be governed by the black and white of the CBA.
Thanks for the reply. I can agree with the sentiments as I too am tired of the constant dodger talk. They are not doing anything against the rules.
My comment about the “spirit” of the cba is more in regards to them gaming the deferments to their advantage. It wouldn’t matter if it’s the dodgers, Yankees, or Red Sox doing it. The spirit of the cba is being taken advantage of because it doesn’t have specific writing to stop this…yet. My point is that if a new rule to limit these types of contracts comes about for the next cba then it would be because it was a loophole that wasn’t covered and being taken advantage of, and they think it’s unfair to continue to allow.
Well my point is there isn’t any difference between the spirit and letter of the CBA. They are one and the same. Deferrals have been used for years, maybe not at this scale, but in any case, the Dodgers aren’t exploiting any loopholes. The other teams in MLB would have to want a change in this system for change to happen. It might make for an interesting topic of conversation at the next CBA negotiation, but my guess is the 30 owners won’t agree on any major changes to the way it works now, and I sure don’t hear any complaints from the players.
BlueSkies_LA;
I like your posts, but……
Of course you don’t hear any complaints from the players. Because there isn’t total revenue sharing the large market teams set the salaries and that filters down. The players make out like bandits.
The arguments people here get into are always about owners and players. I’m one of the few that asks: What about the fans? The ones that pay.
A small and even a mid-market team can spend 3-4 years building up a farm system, develop some decent players, and will be fortunate to get an (expanded) playoff spot for 3 of the coming 5 years at which point they sink back to stinking again.
Every offseason posters on here talk about each team like it’s rotisserie league. As if every one of their teams is going to sign 2-4 good players and bamboozle other teams in a few trades. That never pans out. The season starts and reality kicks in. Now with trades throughout the season culminating at the deadline, the wealthy teams can take on even more salaries to get over any of their players poor seasons and injuries – as the Dodgers did in 2024. Most teams cannot.
I’ve always loved front offices that made smart baseball moves. But now MLB has gotten to point where the smart FO’s are those that have the expensive lawyers on hand to maneuver through the everchanging CBA rules. Unfortunately, most fans don’t remotely understand that,
so they call their owner: “Cheap”.
MLB is in dire need of total revenue sharing, a salary cap and floor.
If anyone makes out a like a bandit on these deferral deals, it’s the owners. In effect, they get to borrow at a 4.43 percent rate (per the CBA) and then invest it a much higher rate of return, very possibly zeroing out the cost of the contract entirely. The players are under no obligation to take these deals, and they won’t unless the owners make them sweet enough — which I believe the Dodgers are doing by combining the deferrals with a higher present value than the player would get from another team.
The overall financing system is a mess, you sure won’t get any disagreement from me there. But this is the financing system the 30 owners have designed of their own free will and volition, and be sure no team owner is losing money because of it. And personally I don’t think a cap and floor is the answer. The answer is splitting the game’s revenue more evenly and rewarding the most successful teams instead of the least successful. This is the answer to the question nobody is asking.
There’s nothing published outside of the “owner is cheap” narrative. Having worked in the industry in a former life, I can speak with a fair amount of authority in saying that:
1) Reporters are lazy, they’ll print anything that’s told them without worrying much about the veracity.
2) Reporters absolutely have agendas/favorite sources and wouldn’t possibly research or publish anything that doesn’t match the narrative they want out there.
3) More than either 1 or 2 above, reporters hate being accused of being a shill, to the point of outright ignoring reality to prove they’re not in bed with the people they’re reporting on.
The reality is that MLB’s markets are horribly imbalanced, with little to no recourse for stagnant areas (Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Minnesota) to generate enough revenue to consistently match the big markets. The Dodgers could come out tomorrow and do as many offensive things as possible to their fanbase and still make more money next year than Minnesota working 3 times harder than they already are to generate revenue.
The next article about how much money the Pittsburgh market could generate for the Pirates will be the first one, and that’s the narrative that would actually help people understand what’s going on with the MLB.
Great podcast.
I’d suggest when analyzing the deferrals that are commonplace with the Dodgers, you should look at how California’s insane 13.3 percent income tax motivates these contracts.
Objectively, why wouldn’t most players just defer whatever they are comfortable with to potentially KEEP an extra 13.3 percent of their money?
JerseyShoreScore;
LA people pay an additional 1%.
Dodger fatigue, Ohtani fatigue, well said.
Waiting for the ‘Roster Size Exemption’ for large market teams AKA the Dodgers.
Manfried has that one up his sleeve.
“As the market size dictates, we are instituting a ‘Roster Size Exemption’rule. This rule will allow for teams with a greater ‘market size’ to adjust their rosters accordingly to reflect ‘revenue streams’. This will be a scale of sorts. Teams in larger markets will be granted the opportunity to increase their rosters by an additional 5 to 10 players reflecting the larger market size.”
‘Manfried believes this will benefit baseball on a whole as a majority of fans reside in larger markets. An influx of star power in larger markets will benefit MLB internationally.’
This is a restructuring of sorts for MLB.
increasing the roster based on size of market means that small market teams will never win a championship
What the Padres spent is a drop in the bucket with even Ohtani’s contract. But as always Dodger fans will continue to obsess with the Padres it’s weird. I know Petco is miles better than Chavez Latrine, but that’s no reason to obsess.
Petco and Gaslamp is cool, but the Padres don’t have much history. The rivalry is still in its infancy. A trip to Oracle and McCovey Cove always gets me real pumped….
Padres were trying to spend like the Dodgers with the future Bally Sports TV money that had not even been put in their bank account. When the future dollars of Bally’s dried up into Bankruptcy Court so did the Padres future dollars for big contracts. Now what is left is Padres have to play like a real payroll budget team with a large overhead to cover in the future in about 5 players, Preller will have to pull some more Soto deals, because the days of being a big stake team is over, it was nice while it was just play money, now reality sits in.
Triston Casas will cost Pittsburgh Jared Jones at the least.
As a Pirates fan, I’m 100% open to trading Jones….but not for Casas. I get that last season was a wash for Casas, he was never right after the injury. And the season before that was pretty solid – admittedly way better than anything the Pirates can seem to muster at 1B.
I’m just not sold on either of them. Jones was pretty pedestrian with great stuff after the league had some tape on him, and he doesn’t have the body build to consistently stay off the shelf. Casas was a whiff machine last year in the little time he did play, which was probably a function of not having great timing from a long layoff and playing through pain.
I feel like the Pirates would do well to get a couple of players for Jones while his value is still really high, the arms race in the MLB dictates that if you’re trading away a top-of-the-rotation type, you should get a haul in return. In the Pirates’ case, I think they could get a controllable regular and an up-and-coming OF (the weakness of their farm). I also think that they could probably get Yandy Diaz from TB for less given his age and contract situation.
The Dodger haters better buckle up because Friedman will make other big moves next week at the winter meetings.
I lived through the Braves winning 14 straight division titles, the Yankees winning season streak is still going for 30 years. Those streaks mostly happened in eras with less playoff spots than now so other teams had no other way into the postseason. This Dodgers run is nothing so far, definitely not feeling the fatigue yet.
As if the Dodgers are always “sneaking” into the playoffs….
Still saying there is a possibility of a deal with Bellinger and Happ + cash going to AZ for Montgomery, McCarthy, and a prospect.
Thanks Dawg. I needed a laugh today. That’s hilarious.
That would be beyond a stupid trade for the Cubs to make unless that prospect was Lawler.
I honestly believe Montgomery will bounce back but at the surface level, it’s a horrible contract. Maybe the Cubs would deal Bellinger for Montgomery and a prospect to move off 11 million and the risk of a serious injury to Bellinger causing him to opt into the last year but it’s doubtful.
Happ is one of the better corner outfielders in the game. He also comes with full no trade protection.
Cubs don’t want McCarthy nor would they have a need for a light hitting corner outfielder and they certainly would not add money for a crappy trade package like you suggested.
You’re the only one “still saying” that is even remotely realistic.
Dodger and deferral fatigue yet the next two discussions are about the dodgers
That part.
How about Juan Soto fatigue❓‼️
It’s not a good idea to let the Dodgers do this at an unlimited pace because it’s setting the team up to be non-competitive in the future. Like a salary cap with a bunch of dead money. There is also some risk the Dodgers’ investments don’t keep up with the 4% NPV rate dictated by MLB, meaning the Dodgers could have to pay even more into the escrow account funding the deferrals. Right now, guaranteed net rates above 2-3% on an investment product are rare. With the amount of money we’re talking about here, it could become a major burden in the future. Defined benefit plans for things like pensions have become completely obsolete in the business world because they’ve bankrupted so many entities over the years.
No one is letting the Dodgers do anything. They are operating within the rules that currently exist.
And there’s no dead money, no reckoning coming to their organization. The deferred money is being set aside in investments today, to grow it to the amount to be paid when due.
Not really. Teams must fund deferrals each year according to their present value. The present value discount rate in the CBA is 4.43 percent annually. All a team needs to do with the funding is achieve this very modest rate of return to fully fund the payouts when they are due. The rate is only slightly below the current yield on a 10-year Treasury Note, so this is easily done, apparently by design. A more realistic benchmark is the average annual historical return on the S&P 500, which is around 10 percent. A hedge fund such as Guggenheim, with access to a universe of financial instruments, probably expects to do quite a bit better. Is there risk? Sure. A major, prolonged financial calamity could derail these plans. Otherwise, they far more likely to come out way ahead.
The Dodgers will never be non-competitive as long as the current ownership remains in place. If Guggenheim Partners cannot maintain a ROI above the 4.45% (I think) discount rate used to calculate the $46MM AAV for Ohtani, then we have a lot of other things in the world (WW3, another pandemic, another Black Monday, etc) than whether the Dodgers will be competitive when they have to start cutting $68 million checks to Ohtani and other deferral payments.
The Dodgers get to use the deferred money to make more money. Too bad, the other owners haven’t figured it out yet….
Everyone is so bored with Lalalandia and their cerote bandwagonistas. Zzzz
I did not find Lalalandia boring at all. What a great holiday spot in Denmark. Have you even been there?
Fans are sick and tired of talking about the Dodgers… So let’s talk about the Dodgers!
pretty simple for me I’m beyond over-it reading about player salaries. I don’t give a rat’s patootie about what a player is being paid. Every article seems to be about player wages…yeah that’s what makes the game fun to watch.
This “golden batter” thing is a joke right? Like expert level trolling? Please say yes.
Fatigue suggests time, and many here (not me) are too young to develop such long-term ills. But I like to think of it as rival fatigue, lacking a more literal definition. But as a fan of several under-performing teams, I enjoy not having the risk of developing a superiority complex
I’d love to have Casas in the black and gold but not worth a Jones. of course if the pirates have injury concerns… Ashcraft or Harrington would be in play.
Casas isn’t a huge impact bat but certainly above average and puts a lock on first base for a few years.
Further if Yoshida can do passable OF..
Casas, Yoshida + a fair amount of salary like 3-8m/season for something like Ashcraft and a lower end proible minors depth with a bench 25man ceiling
Both would likely be a significant upgrade for the pirates from 2024. Of course it hinges on Yoshida being able to play out field and not be embarrassing.
Of all the bizarre questions of the day,
“What would it take for the Pirates to get Casas?” hahahaha
A new ownership in Pittsburgh, a new ownership in Boston.
But other than that, shoot it makes perfect sense the Red Sox would want to trade a home grown future all-star to a small market club so they can trade him back to a bigger market club in 5 years when he’s no longer controlled. That makes perfect sense.
This is why the generation of baseball fans that played virtual reality games need to stop contributing to discussions because they are not based in reality.
This IS NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN. Next fictional question!!
It does make sense if they get a future all-star pitcher. It a depends on the complete package of the offers on if it is considered at all.
IMO: Boston and Pittsburgh probably would exchange offers at the winter meetings and that’s probably as far as it goes.
It is fun to theory craft
Deferrals should count against the luxury cap completely during the length of the contract.
AM21 – OUTSTANDING COMMENT!!!
The playing field is no longer level thanks to deferrals and you just suggested a fair and equitable solution that would roll back the concept of a super team like the NBA has seen for years. Excellent suggestion!!
That’s an interesting idea – at some point the Dodgers will have to pay the piper, but it could be a long way off. The next CBA negotiations will certainly be interesting.
It is a completely unworkable idea unless the purpose is eliminating deferrals entirely, as this is exactly what it would do. And since neither the owners or players would want that, you can forget it.
The CBA should be written so that it’s in the best interest of baseball. That’s not the owners or the players…it’s the fans because the fans are ultimately paying for EVERYTHING!