On balance, Rangers fans are surely happy that the club signed Marcus Semien prior to the 2022 season. After all, his second year with the club saw him make the AL All-Star team, finish as a finalist for the AL MVP award for the third time in his career, and join the rest of the Rangers in hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy after bringing home the first World Series championship in franchise history. Flags fly forever, so in a sense that surprising seven-year, $175MM contract that Texas brass shelled out to convince Semien to join a team coming off a 102-loss season is already a resounding success.
Perhaps that’s a good thing, as Semien has shown some worrying signs as he enters his mid-thirties. Last season represented a notable step back from his star-level production thanks primarily to a down season at the plate. In 159 games for the Rangers last year, the veteran hit .237/.308/.391 with a 99 wRC+. It was a step back from the 126 wRC+ he had posted the previous year, but hardly out of the ordinary. 2024 was the seventh year in a row where Semien had alternated a relatively average offensive season with one where he mustered up enough offense to finish third in AL MVP voting. It’s a trend that stretched across three different teams, starting during his time in Oakland in 2018 with a pedestrian season that he followed up by crushing a then career-high 33 homers in 2019.
The trend continued when he suffered a down season during the 60-game 2020 campaign, though Semien came roaring back with a 45-homer season and 6.0 fWAR in 2021 as a member of the Blue Jays. That was the platform campaign Semien put together ahead of his decision to sign with the Rangers, and overall the first three years of that deal have been successful overall with a .254/.320/.433 (111 wRC+) with 14.8 fWAR. Despite his pedestrian season offensively last year, Semien still managed to piece together a four-win campaign thanks to him offering some of the most defensive value in the entire sport with his work at second base. Among all qualified players regardless of position last year, Semien’s +19 Outs Above Average were eclipsed by only fellow second baseman Andres Gimenez. His Fielding Run Value was similarly impressive, as his +14 figure was tied with Gimenez for the league lead among all infielders.
That sort of wizardry with the glove can make up for a pedestrian bat, but it can’t make up for the sort of numbers Semien has put up in 2025 so far. In Semien’s first 115 plate appearances this year, he’s hit a paltry .155/.226/.223, good for a 30 wRC+. That’s 70% worse than league average, and the third-weakest offensive performance in the majors among qualified hitters so far this year. That sort of offensive production is nearly impossible to make up for with the glove and on the bases, and that’s assuming Semien can replicate his elite defense from last year despite being just a few months shy of his 35th birthday. With three years and $72MM still remaining on his contract after this year, Semien’s age and brutal start to the season are clear causes for worry in Texas.
Fortunately, Semien’s underlying offensive numbers do provide reason for at least some optimism. Semien’s .175 BABIP won’t stay more than 100 points below his career mark (.281) all year long. In the power department, his 8.1% barrel rate is actually the highest he’s posted since his 45-homer campaign with the Blue Jays back in 2021, though his 31.7% hard-hit rate is the lowest its been in a 162-game season since 2017. The more concerning metrics are those regarding his plate discipline. While Semien’s 8.7% walk rate is largely unchanged from last year’s 8.9% figure, his strikeout rate jumped from 14.6% in each of the past two seasons to 20.0% so far in 2025.
That increase in strikeouts has been due to an increase in whiffs, especially outside of the strike zone. Semien’s swinging strike rate this year is up to 10.9%, a full two points higher than his career mark of 8.9% and the highest he’s posted since his 21-game cup of coffee with the White Sox back in 2013. When looking at pitches outside of the strike zone, Semien is making contact just 45.5% of the time, down more than ten points from last year. Even though Semien can expect some positive regression in the power and BABIP departments, his newfound issues with whiffs outside of the strike zone could limit his ability to be an above-average bat in the majors if not corrected.
How do MLBTR readers think Semien’s 2025 season will play out? A rebound on at least some level appears all but guaranteed, given that Billy Hunter of the 1953 St. Louis Browns is the last player to post a 30 wRC+ or lower while qualifying for the batting title. The real question appears to be whether Semien will be able to get his offense back to a level that would allow his defense to make him an above-average major leaguer. Have your say in the poll below:
They should have been worried last year when he was a mediocre hitter being paid to be a star.
But his defense makes up for bad offense
My fantasy team is worried.
As my dad taught me, if the choose is between being anxious and nervous or being relaxed and calm, it’s always better to be nervous!
On the bright side, at least Joc Pederson wasn’t signed long term.
Joc looks like he eats food I love.
Lolol breh
He was on a good trajectory toward the HoF. Rangers are gonna be worried about Seager’s contract too in a couple years. All Rangers will come home to roost.
Seager hasn’t shown any decline hitting-wise yet, and unlike Semien has a long and consistent track record of being a truly elite hitter. They might have to move him off SS within the next few years, but his bat is still elite when he’s healthy.
Seager’s only problem is staying healthy. He’ll continue to put up good/great numbers otherwise.
We waited 50 years for that World Series victory. It was worth it.
You guys deserved it. From a Mariners fan.
Yes, absolutely we should be worried. This has gone on way too long for it to be considered an extended slump, and his slow bat speed isn’t goign to improve with age.
They should be, yes. That 2023 team was such a fluke. Team just caught lightning in a bottle for a month then turned back to the lowly rangers we’ve all come to expect afterwards.
2023 was such a weird season because the braves should’ve been better in the postseason but they can’t beat the Phillies, and I don’t know how the Phillies lost to the dbacks of all teams
And the AL had Baltimore which was destined to do nothing and then bad teams everywhere else except for Texas and Houston
The Rangers should be worried about every hitter not named Wyatt Langford.
So they won the 2023 World Series, all they got was a “piece of metal,” right, Rob Manfred?
Vote: He’ll continue to struggle badly enough that he’s a below-average player overall at the end of the year.
I think there will be a partial resurgence as his higher xwOBA, (.299) decent Barrel %, (8.5) and Hard Hit % (31.7), which suggest better outcomes are due. There is a slight decline in exit velocity off his bat compared to recent years but he sits around his personal average.
“That increase in strikeouts has been due to an increase in whiffs…”
No, I’m telling you; it’s actually the whiffs are due…get this … from an uptick in strikeouts! I heard it on this podcast. You gotta turn off mainstream media man.
One doesn’t need to whiff to strikeout. Many strikeouts are due to poor umpire calls that are caused by catcher framing. Let’s get rid of all umpires and put trackers everywhere on the field of play, just as they have in tennis, so we get the right call 24/7, 365 days per year. Then we’ll have the absolute best data possible without human influence…
I’m hoping that MLB will eventually move to an electronic presentation of the game, similar to how they stream MLB the Show.
that is the worst idea of all time.
Umpires and there strike zones are an integral part of the game, both from a game play standpoint and from an entertainment standpoint.
Whats better than a great punch out call? A walk off homer. A great double play. A robbery on the warning track. But the called third strike is a great part of the game.
I dont even like the ABS challenge system, I think it kills the excitement of the moment in a way that makes the game boring.
We’ll call it laserball or better yet laseball.
I think in this context it means “swing and misses”.
Stick a fork in him. He’s done.
Rangers should be worried about the Mariners. The Mariners were a huge reason the Rangers were below .500 last year.
I still get a kick out of how Semien pips Juan Soto in bWAR for 2018 through 2024: 37.6 to 36.4.
Prior to this year he was aging so well he had an outside shot at the Hall of Fame. One more peak season and a few more respectable seasons and he has a shot, but it’s not looking great at the moment.
Why does trade rumors always title the poll with a completely different question than article headline?
Also, this poll is comically slanted.
Also, do poll options need to be 1-2 paragraphs?
a) he’s cooked
b) he’s aight
c) MVP soon
He’s always been a streaky hitter. He’ll go on a hot streak at some point and get his average up near .250 by the end of the year. I’m not expecting much power numbers
Semien had a good day at the plate in yesterday’s 15-2 destruction of the A’s.
I wouldnt worry about Semien but Burger and Pederson are both out to awful starts, and a little worry has crept in around those two and their fit.
But if and when the Rangers start to hit, they will be a dangerous team. The fact that they are in first and have had struggles bodes well for them.