While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? Yesterday’s poll covered the AL, where 45.5% of voters expect southpaw Tarik Skubal to repeat as the Cy Young Award winner. Today, our focus is on the NL. A look at some of the top candidates:
After a dominant debut season where he won the NL Rookie of the Year award and finished third in Cy Young voting, it shouldn’t register as much of a surprise that Skenes is one of the favorites for the award in his sophomore season as a big leaguer. The right-hander has an NL-best 2.12 ERA in 106 innings of work through 17 starts with strong peripherals to match. He’s striking out 26.9% of his opponents, walking 7.1%, and is doing extremely well in terms of contact management with a 48.9% ground ball rate and a barrel rate of just 4.9%. It’s a strong collection of numbers for any player, much less a 23-year-old in just his second MLB season.
Even so, Skenes is hardly a slam dunk for the award. His strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate are all actually worse than they were in his rookie campaign. His 3.28 SIERA is just eighth in the NL, suggesting that there are other contenders for the award who are better set up to excel in the second half of the season than he is. Aside from that, some more traditional voters could look at Skenes’s 4-7 record on a Pirates team that could flirt with a 100-loss campaign this year and hold it against the young star relative to other hurlers in the race who pitch for contenders.
When looking at the game’s aces, it can be argued that none is more underappreciated than right-hander Logan Webb. He’s doing what he can to change that perception of him with a phenomenal season in his age-28 campaign, however. Webb’s 2.52 ERA lags behind that of Skenes, but he makes up for it in virtually every other category. His 107 1/3 innings of work across 17 starts leads the NL, and his 2.24 FIP is also good for the best in the senior circuit. While his 53.3% ground ball rate would be the lowest he’s posted in a full season if maintained through the end of the year, it’s still a well above average figure.
He’s made up for that decline in grounders by striking out more batters than ever before with a 27.7% clip that surpasses even Skenes, and he’s done it while maintaining a tidy 5.3% walk rate. There are very few red flags in Webb’s profile this year, and perhaps the biggest question is if a player who entered the year with a career 22.0% strikeout rate who has made only token improvements to his low-90s fastball in terms of velocity this year can sustain such a large spike in strikeouts. After finishing as the runner-up for the Cy Young Award in 2023 and sixth last season, could 2025 be Webb’s year to shine?
No list of potential Cy Young candidates in the NL has been complete without Wheeler since he arrived in Philadelphia, and this year is no exception. The 35-year-old may have recently indicated that he’ll retire following the expiration of his current contract in 2027, but he’s shown no signs whatsoever of slowing down on the mound. Across 99 innings of work and 16 starts this year, Wheeler’s numbers look like they have a chance to be better than they’ve ever been come the end of the year.
His 2.55 ERA would be the best of his career by a slim margin after he posted a 2.57 figure last season, and his eye-popping 32.9% strikeout rate is not only nearly eight points better than his career mark, but the highest in all of baseball among qualified starters this year. His 2.70 SIERA is also the best in the NL, edging out Webb by just eight points, and he has a strong chance to eclipse 200 innings pitched for the third time in his career. Wheeler has finished second for the Cy Young twice before, in both 2021 and 2024. This year could be his best opportunity to secure the award before his planned retirement two seasons from now.
Easily the most surprising entrant into the list of top candidates for the Cy Young, Gore was once the sport’s consensus top pitching prospect but entered the 2025 season with a fairly pedestrian 4.20 ERA across parts of three seasons in the majors. He’s broken out in a big way as the Nationals’ ace this year, however, with a 3.09 ERA and 2.91 FIP in 99 innings of work across 17 starts. His 31.8% strikeout rate is second only to Wheeler in the NL, and that overpowering stuff is enough to leave him with a strong 2.99 SIERA that largely supports his performance to this point in the season.
Impressive as he’s been, however, the 26-year-old also has much clearer flaws than the other contenders on this list. Like Skenes, Gore’s 3-8 record on a club with little hope of contending in 2025 could be a hard sell for the sport’s most traditional voters. There are also fair questions about how certain Gore is to keep up his performance in the second half. He’s mostly a fly ball pitcher, and that profile along with his 9.0% barrel rate allowed leave him susceptible to the long ball. His 7.4% walk rate is the highest among the top contenders for the Cy Young this year, as well. Perhaps most concerning of all is his performance down the stretch in 2024. After carrying a 3.47 ERA and 3.00 FIP through July 1 last year, Gore wore down in the second half and posted a 4.40 ERA with a 4.17 FIP across his final 15 starts. Will he be able to sustain his performance this year?
Other Options
While the four hurlers mentioned above are the top candidates, they certainly aren’t the only arms worthy of consideration. Chris Sale is the reigning Cy Young winner in the NL and would be firmly in contention for the award once again if not for a recent rib cage injury that figures to sideline him indefinitely. Jesus Luzardo has elite peripheral numbers but recently surrendered 20 runs in 5 2/3 innings across two appearances that could knock him out of contention for the award by themselves. Cristopher Sanchez and former Cy Young award winner Robbie Ray are both in the midst of excellent seasons, but are overshadowed within their own rotations by Wheeler and Webb respectively. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 2.61 ERA is very impressive, but his less-than-elite peripherals and lack of volume leave him a step behind the other contenders.
Sale’s injury sets this race apart from the AL Cy Young and both of the MVP races by significantly diminishing the chances of a repeat. With what appears to be a fairly wide-open field, who do MLBTR readers expect to come out on top? Have your say in the poll below:
Andrew Abbott?
Abbott had a late start to his season so he’s still a few innings short of qualifying as the league leader in ERA. If he stays on his current pace he should be in the conversation.
At this point in the season I don’t think I would have heartache with any of these four winning.
I’d be curious how Skenes’s next few outings go. Bit of a bump in the road recently.
Agreed, but I won’t be surprised if he turns it around very soon. His demeanor is as impressive as his arsenal. You can listen to his postgame interviews and not be able to tell if he pitched well or not.
Andrew Abbott deserves so much more attention for the Cy Young than what he’s gotten. 7-1 record this year (Skenes is 4-7…) with a 1.79 ERA and sub 1.00 WHIP. He should be starting the ASG as the best pitcher in the NL so far and it’s insane he isn’t universally recognized as a top 3 favorite for the Cy Young, at a minimum.
lol @ won-loss record
It’s the point of the game. Saying it doesn’t matter is just as bad as displaying your participation trophies as if they were earned.
Abbott? Again, he faced all Central Division teams. See what his record is pitching against the AL or NL East Division teams. Then let’s talk about how good he really is. And that 1 game against the Braves “this year” doesn’t count. They are a hurting team this year. The Phillies just beat them 13-0 in a bullpen pitched game. I guess the Phillies bullpen is CY Young candidate worthy too. LOL
Your point would matter if the NL East was better than the NL Central. The NL East is top heavy with the Phillies and the Mets but this year the Central is a better division top to bottom than the East so your argument about Abbott facing NL Central teams carries no weight for you.
People will come up with multiple reasons why they don’t think Abbott is deserving but it doesn’t make them right. The fact that he is a pitcher for a small market team and was not a household name is the only reason people will try to justify their arguments that he isn’t deserving when he in fact is and should be right near the top with the others mentioned.
Everybody always jokes about what a bandbox GABP is and how it’s a HR haven yet Abbott has shutdown pretty much everybody he has faced this year whether it be at home or on the road. If he keeps up what he has been doing and it continues to after the all star break people might finally start paying attention to how good of a pitcher Andrew Abbott really is.
Central Division a better division than the East? Central vs East 40-38. Oh, that really is earth shattering better than the top heavy East. WOW 2 more wins.
Try and make a substantial point that really does carry weight for Abbott being CY Young material after only pitching against Central Division teams.
He walked 5 and took a no decision to the worst team in all of MLB, the Rockies. Granted it was in Colorado where most pitchers don’t pitch good. But the Rockies have a worse record at home than on the road. He should not be walking 7 Rockies batters in a game. You do that to any East Division team you’re not going to be CY Young material. You are going to be more like chop liver.
@ Joe It All – My point was punctuated yesterday. How did Abbott do against that NL East Phillies team? 3.1 Innings pitched 9 hits 4 runs – all earned. And a measly 2 Ks.
Won loss record counts for the team but sometimes not the pitcher.
Skenes is a perfect example this year.
ERA for a starting pitcher,IP,WHIP,and opponents batting average all play a part in how well the pitcher has pitched.
DeGrom won the CY several years ago with a losing record.
The pitcher has nothing to do with how many runs his team scores during his games.
Gore!!!
Webb will never get enough media attention to win it.
He blocked me on Twitter though…
Shows Webb is solid Cy Young material does not let anyone distract his magic on and off the mound
Skenes fan here, but don’t forget about Miz. And how do you account for the fact that Skenes is usually pitching without a lead or with a slim lead and no run support. What support are Logan and Zack pitching with? Big psychological and pitch choice differences there.
Skenes gets 3.59 runs, Webb gets 3.65, Wheeler gets over 5
Jacob Misiorowski
Yup, completely outdueled Skenes in the head to head. The only problem is he was a late call-up, but if he keeps dominating the way he has, then it’s gonna be hard to overlook his numbers.
He will not get it.
Skenes did not get it last year and he was called up much sooner.
I came to say this
IF Miz pitched in NY, LA or the cubs, the media would be all touting him as the “clear-cut NL Cy Young winner. And yes, they are that pathetic..
Seriously? Pitched 3 games and you are ready to give him the CY Young award! He pitched against 3 Central Division teams. Pitch him against any one of the East Division teams AL or NL and then let’s talk about how good he really is and a CY Young candidate.
My point was spoken loud and clear last Wednesday 7/2. How did Misiorowski do against that NL East Mets team? 3.2 Innings pitched 5 hits 5 runs – all earned. 3 BBs and a measly 2 Ks. Yep! That’s real CY Young material. NOT!
I’d guess the media will give it to Ohtani
Underrated comment.
I see you changed your name to “CC Ryder”, oldguy58, but you still have the same Ohtani hate. Quite pathetic.
If Ohtani pitches decent for just a few games he will win Comeback Player of the Year award. lol
Wheeler has been the best at halfway point, Webb a close second.
Some of us in our fourties will remember Jack Armstrong 10-2 at the All Star break and finished the season 12-9
Huh? You have to go back 25 years for a first half season dominance to a second half season disappointment? You can just go back to last year for that. Ranger Suarez 10-2 at All Star break with a run of 9 consecutive wins.
Try 35 years, it was 1990 when Jack Armstrong started the All Star game at Wrigley Field if I’m not mistaken.
Jacob Misierwoski(sp?)
I’m a Padres fan so this isn’t even a biased take
The dude is NUTTY
I know he missed sometime but what about Ranger Suarez ?
It will go to Skenes. Because as with myself… the voters are against Wheeler no matter what and will snub him once again.
Nothing against Skenes, he IS good. But to not take the award from him just because his win loss record is skewed by a poor Pirates team is just wrong.
Steve Carlton pitched on a last place Phillies team that only won 59 games in the 1972 season and Carlton still won 27 of those games. So, a poor win loss record on a poor Pirates team is a poor excuse to give him a CY Young award.
L O G A N. W E B B.
Kodai Senga has outperformed all of them with 1.47ERA and is coming back soon.
Andrew Abbott
What about Kodai senga who has a lower era than all of the players listed an was 7-3 before he was sent to DL. Who should probably be back shortly after the all star break
Y’know, Matthew Boyd has really been very good.
Giants offense is anemic. They get shut out by the White Sox. Devers, Ramos, Adams, Smith go 0-14. This was against a journeyman pitcher too. I worry that our offense just isn’t good enough and we also don’t have a closer either. When you have 2 kind of closers that means you don’t have 1 good one