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Poll: NL Cy Young Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? Yesterday’s poll covered the AL, where 45.5% of voters expect southpaw Tarik Skubal to repeat as the Cy Young Award winner. Today, our focus is on the NL. A look at some of the top candidates:

Paul Skenes

After a dominant debut season where he won the NL Rookie of the Year award and finished third in Cy Young voting, it shouldn’t register as much of a surprise that Skenes is one of the favorites for the award in his sophomore season as a big leaguer. The right-hander has an NL-best 2.12 ERA in 106 innings of work through 17 starts with strong peripherals to match. He’s striking out 26.9% of his opponents, walking 7.1%, and is doing extremely well in terms of contact management with a 48.9% ground ball rate and a barrel rate of just 4.9%. It’s a strong collection of numbers for any player, much less a 23-year-old in just his second MLB season.

Even so, Skenes is hardly a slam dunk for the award. His strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate are all actually worse than they were in his rookie campaign. His 3.28 SIERA is just eighth in the NL, suggesting that there are other contenders for the award who are better set up to excel in the second half of the season than he is. Aside from that, some more traditional voters could look at Skenes’s 4-7 record on a Pirates team that could flirt with a 100-loss campaign this year and hold it against the young star relative to other hurlers in the race who pitch for contenders.

Logan Webb

When looking at the game’s aces, it can be argued that none is more underappreciated than right-hander Logan Webb. He’s doing what he can to change that perception of him with a phenomenal season in his age-28 campaign, however. Webb’s 2.52 ERA lags behind that of Skenes, but he makes up for it in virtually every other category. His 107 1/3 innings of work across 17 starts leads the NL, and his 2.24 FIP is also good for the best in the senior circuit. While his 53.3% ground ball rate would be the lowest he’s posted in a full season if maintained through the end of the year, it’s still a well above average figure.

He’s made up for that decline in grounders by striking out more batters than ever before with a 27.7% clip that surpasses even Skenes, and he’s done it while maintaining a tidy 5.3% walk rate. There are very few red flags in Webb’s profile this year, and perhaps the biggest question is if a player who entered the year with a career 22.0% strikeout rate who has made only token improvements to his low-90s fastball in terms of velocity this year can sustain such a large spike in strikeouts. After finishing as the runner-up for the Cy Young Award in 2023 and sixth last season, could 2025 be Webb’s year to shine?

Zack Wheeler

No list of potential Cy Young candidates in the NL has been complete without Wheeler since he arrived in Philadelphia, and this year is no exception. The 35-year-old may have recently indicated that he’ll retire following the expiration of his current contract in 2027, but he’s shown no signs whatsoever of slowing down on the mound. Across 99 innings of work and 16 starts this year, Wheeler’s numbers look like they have a chance to be better than they’ve ever been come the end of the year.

His 2.55 ERA would be the best of his career by a slim margin after he posted a 2.57 figure last season, and his eye-popping 32.9% strikeout rate is not only nearly eight points better than his career mark, but the highest in all of baseball among qualified starters this year. His 2.70 SIERA is also the best in the NL, edging out Webb by just eight points, and he has a strong chance to eclipse 200 innings pitched for the third time in his career. Wheeler has finished second for the Cy Young twice before, in both 2021 and 2024. This year could be his best opportunity to secure the award before his planned retirement two seasons from now.

MacKenzie Gore

Easily the most surprising entrant into the list of top candidates for the Cy Young, Gore was once the sport’s consensus top pitching prospect but entered the 2025 season with a fairly pedestrian 4.20 ERA across parts of three seasons in the majors. He’s broken out in a big way as the Nationals’ ace this year, however, with a 3.09 ERA and 2.91 FIP in 99 innings of work across 17 starts. His 31.8% strikeout rate is second only to Wheeler in the NL, and that overpowering stuff is enough to leave him with a strong 2.99 SIERA that largely supports his performance to this point in the season.

Impressive as he’s been, however, the 26-year-old also has much clearer flaws than the other contenders on this list. Like Skenes, Gore’s 3-8 record on a club with little hope of contending in 2025 could be a hard sell for the sport’s most traditional voters. There are also fair questions about how certain Gore is to keep up his performance in the second half. He’s mostly a fly ball pitcher, and that profile along with his 9.0% barrel rate allowed leave him susceptible to the long ball. His 7.4% walk rate is the highest among the top contenders for the Cy Young this year, as well. Perhaps most concerning of all is his performance down the stretch in 2024. After carrying a 3.47 ERA and 3.00 FIP through July 1 last year, Gore wore down in the second half and posted a 4.40 ERA with a 4.17 FIP across his final 15 starts. Will he be able to sustain his performance this year?

Other Options

While the four hurlers mentioned above are the top candidates, they certainly aren’t the only arms worthy of consideration. Chris Sale is the reigning Cy Young winner in the NL and would be firmly in contention for the award once again if not for a recent rib cage injury that figures to sideline him indefinitely. Jesus Luzardo has elite peripheral numbers but recently surrendered 20 runs in 5 2/3 innings across two appearances that could knock him out of contention for the award by themselves. Cristopher Sanchez and former Cy Young award winner Robbie Ray are both in the midst of excellent seasons, but are overshadowed within their own rotations by Wheeler and Webb respectively. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 2.61 ERA is very impressive, but his less-than-elite peripherals and lack of volume leave him a step behind the other contenders.

Sale’s injury sets this race apart from the AL Cy Young and both of the MVP races by significantly diminishing the chances of a repeat. With what appears to be a fairly wide-open field, who do MLBTR readers expect to come out on top? Have your say in the poll below:

Blake Snell Wins National League Cy Young Award

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Free agent left-hander Blake Snell has been named the National League Cy Young Award winner for 2023, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Logan Webb of the Giants finished second in the voting while Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks finished third.

Snell, 31 next month, has now earned a Cy Young award for the second time in his career. The first trophy was in the American League, with Snell winning as a member of the Rays in 2018. He is just the seventh pitcher to win the award in both leagues, joining Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martínez, Max Scherzer, Gaylord Perry and Roy Halladay.

The left-handed Snell hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career, with both his health and performance wobbling over the years, but his two award-winning campaigns have been excellent. His first trophy came after posting an earned run average of 1.89 with the Rays and this second piece of hardware was earned by posting a 2.25 for the Padres this year. His most recent campaign saw him walk 13.3% of batters faced but he danced around those by striking out 31.5% of his opponents and keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.4% clip. He probably had some help from the baseball gods as his .256 batting average on balls in play and 86.7% strand rate were both on the lucky side of average, but his punchouts and grounders surely helped him somewhat as well.

Outside of those two campaigns, the results have been far more mixed. He got to 180 innings pitched in his award-winning campaigns but hasn’t reached 130 in any other season. He also hasn’t posted an ERA lower than 3.24 in any of them.

Of course, that doesn’t matter for the Cy Young voting. It’s a single-season award and his year-to-year consistency is not something for the voters to consider. Snell’s voting wasn’t quite unanimous but he got 28 of the 30 first-place votes. But his overall track record will be of concern to the clubs considering signing him as a free agent. Pitchers with multiple Cy Youngs don’t hit free agency every day but it’s also incredibly rare for a pitcher to put so many runners on base without allowing them to score. Regardless of those concerns, MLBTR predicted Snell to land a contract of $200MM over seven years and he’s already garnering plenty of interest.

Webb had a 3.25 ERA in 216 innings for the Giants this year, which got him one of the first-place votes and 17 for second. Gallen had a 3.47 ERA in his 210 innings, which led to one first-place vote and three for second. In the full voting, which can be seen here, votes also went to Spencer Strider, Justin Steele, Zack Wheeler, Kodai Senga and Corbin Burnes.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias, Aaron Nola, Ian Happ, Juan Soto, Marcell Ozuna

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Episode 3 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well; use this link to find the show on Spotify and this one for Apple. You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes to discuss a wide range of topics around the baseball world:

  • We discuss Tim’s 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings article, including the contract Shohei Ohtani might command, as well as the markets for Aaron Nola and Julio Urias (3:26)
  • The Cubs and Ian Happ agree to a surprising three-year, $61MM extension. So did the player or the club get better value out of this deal? (18:41)
  • A busy week on the extension front includes the Twins agreeing to a four-year, $73.5MM contract with starter Pablo Lopez. We discuss the improvements Lopez has made this season and give our thoughts on the contract (23:04)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Why do the Giants only seem willing to spend money on position players, and not starting pitchers?  This question also includes our thoughts on the Logan Webb contract (26:59)
  • As Juan Soto gets off to a slow start in 2023, is there any hope for him to return to his 2021 numbers and what does this mean for extension talks? (31:24)
  • Are the Braves wasting a roster spot on Marcell Ozuna? (36:22)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Giants, Logan Webb Agree To Five-Year, $90MM Extension

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The Giants announced that they have agreed to a five-year, $90MM extension with right-hander Logan Webb. Webb will make $8MM next year, $12MM in 2025, $23MM in both 2026 and 2027, then $24MM in 2028. Webb, an ACES client, had previously been slated to reach the open market after 2025, so this deal buys out three free agent years.

Webb, 26, was selected by the Giants in the fourth round of the 2014 draft. His path to establishing himself as a big league starter was tumultuous, as he had Tommy John surgery in 2016 and received an 80-game suspension in 2019 due to a positive test for the banned performance-enhancing substance Dehydrochlormethyltestosterone. He then struggled in his first tastes of the majors, with a 5.22 ERA in eight starts in 2019 and a 5.47 ERA in the shortened 2020 season.

2021, however, was a huge breakout for the righty. He made 26 starts and one relief appearance, eventually logging 148 1/3 innings with a 3.03 ERA. He struck out 26.5% of batters faced while walking just 6%. He also got ground balls at an incredible 60.9% of balls in play, the highest such rate of any pitcher with at least 140 innings pitched that season. Last year, he proved that it was no fluke, throwing 192 1/3 innings over 32 starts, dropping his ERA to 2.90. His strikeout rate dropped to 20.7% but he still got grounders at an excellent 56.7% clip. He finished 11th the National League Cy Young voting.

In addition to establishing himself as the ace of the staff in San Francisco, Webb also crossed the three-year service time mark last year. That allowed him to go through the arbitration process for the first time, with he and the club settling on a $4.6MM salary. He would have been able to go through that two more times but it seems there was mutual interest in getting a long-term deal done instead. It was reported back in February that he and the club had previously had some extension talks, though a deal didn’t get done until today.

Looking to some recent comparables for pitchers in this bracket suggests that Webb did quite well for himself with this deal. Aaron Nola was between three and four years of service when he and the Phillies agreed to a four-year, $45MM deal with a club option. Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins agreed at five years and $56MM with a club option when he was in the same service bucket. Cristian Javier recently set a service record for pitchers between three and four years when he landed a five-year, $64MM guarantee. Webb’s deal trounces that number, although it’s not a perfect comparison, as Webb already had a salary locked in for this year and his new deal doesn’t start until 2024.

Looking to pitchers in between four and five years of service makes it harder to find a great comp. Jeffrey Springs and Chris Paddack recently signed deals in that window, though the Paddack was just embarking on rehab from Tommy John surgery while Springs had only recently moved from the bullpen to starting. In recent years, the Rockies gave five-year deals to both Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela, though neither pitcher is as good as Webb. Jacob deGrom got four years and $120.5MM from the Mets a few years ago, though he was coming off an otherworldly season where he posted a 1.70 ERA while striking out 32.2% of batters faced. However you want to slice it, Webb’s extension stacks up quite favorably when viewed through a historical lens, either topping all three-plus pitchers or falling shy of only deGrom among four-plus pitchers.

Had Webb gone year to year, he would have been a free agent after 2025, his age-28 season. If he continued performing as he has in the past two seasons, he likely could have topped the $70MM he now has locked in for his post-arb years. Even mid-rotation starters like Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon got guarantees in that range this past winter. However, there’s always the risk that injuries or underperformance could have dealt a blow to his earning power in between now and then. Instead, he locks in a decent chunk of change and is still slated to reach the open market after his age-31 season, when he could potentially still be highly sought after, depending on his performance between now and then.

For the Giants, they are betting that Webb will indeed continue to serve a top-of-the-line arm. They don’t have a lot of long-term certainty in their rotation, as they’ve largely relied upon short-term deals for mid-range starters in recent years. Anthony DeSclafani signed a one-year deal for 2021 and then re-signed on a three-year pact that goes through 2024. Alex Wood and Alex Cobb are each in the final season of their respective two-year deals, though the club has a 2024 option for Cobb. Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling each signed two-year deals in the most recent offseason, but they both will have opt-out opportunities in a few months. That gives the club plenty of solid options right now, but all of those guys are in their 30s and potentially departing this year or next. Prior to this deal, Webb would have been slated to follow them out the door not long after, but the Giants can now keep him around through 2028.

The Giants have mostly kept themselves to those short-term deals in recent years, not exactly on purpose. They made attempts to sign marquee players like Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa, though those deals didn’t end up coming to fruition. That’s been a source of frustration for many fans, but the upside is that their long-term slate is quite open. Webb now joins Mitch Haniger and Taylor Rogers as the only players locked in for 2025, though Wilmer Flores does have a modest player option for that season as well.

They’ve used some of that payroll flexibility to lock up Webb, who is now the only player written into the ledger for 2026 and beyond. There should still be plenty of room to add other significant salaries next to Webb going forward. After a disappointing 81-81 season last year that followed the 107-win campaign of 2021, the Giants are hoping for better here in 2023. Whether they succeed or not, they have plenty of financial wiggle room to be aggressive in offseasons to come.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Giants, Logan Webb Have Talked About Long-Term Extension

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The Giants have had some talks with ace right-hander Logan Webb about a long-term contract, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.  Neither Zaidi or Webb gave any specifics about the nature of the talks, or whether or not a deal could be anywhere close to completion.

Webb was arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason, and he and the Giants avoided a hearing by agreeing to a one-year, $4.6MM deal prior to the filing deadline.  The righty has two more arb years remaining before he is scheduled to hit free agency following the 2025 season, and since Webb only turned 26 last November, he’ll still be in his prime when he reaches the open market.

The Giants’ willingness to sign long-term contracts has long been a topic of conversation during Zaidi’s tenure, as the club hasn’t officially gone beyond three guaranteed years to any player since Zaidi was hired following the 2018 season.  Of course, that fact carries a significant asterisk, as the Giants thought they’d signed Carlos Correa to a 13-year, $350MM contract in December before concerns from Correa’s physical about the shortstop’s right leg and ankle prevented the deal from being finalized.  San Francisco was also a prime bidder for both Aaron Judge this offseason and Bryce Harper in the 2018-19 offseason, indicating that Zaidi’s front office is willing to splurge for a premium talent.

After two excellent seasons in the Giants’ rotation, Webb certainly looks like a blue-chip talent in his own right.  A fourth-round pick for the Giants in the 2014 draft, the native of Rocklin, California had a 5.36 ERA over 94 innings in 2019-20, though the FIP (4.15) and xFIP (4.25) metrics and a .340 BABIP indicated that Webb’s ERA was in part due to bad luck.

That fortune changed in 2021-22, when Webb had a 2.96 ERA, 58.4% grounder rate, 23.2% strikeout rate, and 6.1% walk rate over 340 2/3 innings.  While Webb’s K% and whiff rate dipped below average in 2022, he made up for it with strong control and a strong ability to keep the ball on the ground.  Among all qualified pitchers, only Houston’s Framber Valdez has had a better groundball rate than Webb over the last two seasons.  Webb’s FIP and xFIP from 2021-2022 are pretty similar to his ERA (and his .299 BABIP is roughly average), though the argument can certainly be made that such a grounder-heavy pitcher could’ve been even more effective in front of a better defense than the Giants’ collection of subpar infield gloves.

Health-wise, Webb missed about six weeks with a shoulder strain in 2021, and a lower-back strain sent him to the IL right at the end of the 2022 campaign.  Webb underwent a Tommy John surgery in 2016, and he also served an 80-game PED suspension in 2019 after testing positive for dehydrochlormethyltestosterone.

Any injury history comes under more of a microscope in the wake of the Correa situation, though on paper, it would seem like the Giants can be reasonably confident about Webb’s long-term health.  While discussing an extension with a young star is due diligence for any team, the fact that the Giants have already had some level of negotiation with Webb’s representatives at the ACES agency is perhaps also a hint that the team is comfortable in making a long-term commitment.

Sandy Alcantara’s five-year, $56MM extension with the Marlins from November 2021 stands out as a logical comp for Webb’s camp, in no small part because it is currently the largest deal ever given to a pitcher with between three and four years of Major League service time.  Alcantara signed that extension at age-26 (the same age as Webb now) and the two hurlers also share a similar profile as grounder-heavy pitchers.

There is a slight difference in that Alcantara was also in his first offseason of arbitration eligibility at the time of the extension, but hadn’t yet agreed to his salary for the next year.  As such, his deal covered all three arb years, Alcantara’s first two free agent years, and possibly the 2027 season if Miami exercises a $21MM club option.  Though a Webb extension could overwrite his 2023 salary, a new deal would theoretically begin with the 2024 season, meaning that the Giants would have to pay a larger price if wanted to cover another one of Webb’s free agent years.

In terms of long-term payroll, San Francisco has plenty of open space for the future, with such big salaries as Joc Pederson, Brandon Crawford, Alex Wood and (depending on player or club options) Michael Conforto, Ross Stripling, and Alex Cobb all potentially coming off the books next winter.  It leaves the Giants with lots of flexibility in locking up Webb as a cornerstone piece of a rotation that is otherwise filled with veterans on shorter-term contracts, and the team still has plenty of space to pursue other high-priced free agent or trade targets next winter after missing out on Correa and Judge.

Dylan Cease Tops Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool

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One of the big new additions to the collective bargaining agreement signed between the league and the players was the implementation of a $50MM bonus pool set aside for players with less than three years of league service time.

The pool would be handed out to the top 100 eligible players, with MLB’s WAR metric determining which players made the list. Beyond that, further bonuses could be earned for qualified players if they ranked in the top two of Rookie of the Year, top five in MVP or Cy Young, as well as being named in the first or second All-MLB team.

According to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease topped the class in 2022, taking home a bonus of $2,457,426, in addition to his $750K base salary. Cease threw 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball for Chicago this year, finishing 2nd in AL Cy Young voting. That finish earned him $1.75MM in addition to the $707,425 he earned for his WAR ranking. 2022 was Cease’s last pre-arbitration season, so he won’t be eligible for the bonus pool after the 2023 season.

The Astros’ Yordan Alvarez was the top hitter on the list, as he took home a $2,381,143 bonus. Alvarez torched pitching to the tune of a .306/.406/.613 line with 37 home runs, finishing third in AL MVP voting. He picked up $881,143 as the top ranked player via the WAR metric, and an additional $1.5MM for his MVP finish. He also won’t be eligible for the pool next season.

Here’s the top ten bonus pool earners (all of these figures are in addition to the player’s base salary):

Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Atlanta’s Spencer Strider was the only other player to earn a bonus greater than $1MM, while four more players (Sean Murphy, Tommy Edman, Will Smith and Ryan Helsley) earned more than $700K, with another eleven players (Steven Kwan, Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Nestor Cortes, Logan Webb, Shane McClanahan, Cal Raleigh, Daulton Varsho, Nico Hoerner, Triston McKenzie and Tony Gonsolin) earned a bonus greater than $500K.

Each player’s team will pay out the bonuses by December 23, but they will be reimbursed by the Commissioner’s Office.

Sandy Alcantara Wins National League Cy Young Award

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Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara has won the National League Cy Young award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. It was a unanimous victory, with Alcantara receiving all 30 first place votes. He was followed in the voting by Max Fried of the Braves and Julio Urías of the Dodgers.

Alcantara has been the presumptive favorite for quite some time, and the unanimous voting serves as a particular testament to the caliber of season he put together. The right-hander easily lapped the field in innings, soaking up 228 2/3 frames that cleared second-place finisher Aaron Nola by 23 2/3. Alcantara and Nola were the only Senior Circuit pitchers to throw multiple complete games; Nola went the distance twice, while Alcantara did so six times. He also faced a league-leading 886 batters, with Nola’s 807 batters faced an extremely distant second.

That kind of throwback, workhorse mentality was part of what set Alcantara apart from the rest of the league, but he continued to perform brilliantly on a rate basis. Among NL starters with 100+ innings, he ranked fourth in ERA (2.28) and sixth in ground-ball percentage (53.4%). His 23.4% strikeout percentage was more good than elite, but he rarely issued free passes and kept the ball on the ground while consistently going deep into games.

Along the way, the 27-year-old earned the second All-Star nod of his career. Alcantara had posted an ERA between 3.00 and 4.00 in each of his first four seasons with the Fish to emerge as a top-of-the-rotation caliber arm. Miami inked him to a $56MM extension last offseason, a deal that extended their window of control through 2027. That seemed a strong move for general manager Kim Ng and her staff at the time, and it now stands as an absolute bargain with Alcantara cementing himself upon the game’s top handful of pitchers.

It’s the first Cy Young nod for the native of the Dominican Republic, who’d never previously appeared on an awards ballot. Fried and Urías each picked up some support for the second time. The Atlanta southpaw finished fifth in Cy Young balloting in 2020, while the L.A. hurler placed seventh last year. Both earned a top-three placement for the first time this year, with sub-2.50 ERA showings. Fried twirled 185 1/3 innings of 2.48 ball, while Urías led qualified starters with a 2.16 ERA.

Fried picked up 10 second-place votes, and Urías was the runner-up on seven ballots. Nola, Zac Gallen, Carlos Rodón, Corbin Burnes and Edwin Díaz were the other players to receive at least one second-place vote. Nola and Gallen placed fourth and fifth, respectively. Rodón, Burnes, Díaz, Yu Darvish, Kyle Wright, Logan Webb and Ryan Helsley were the other players to appear on a ballot.

Full voting breakdown available here.

Giants Place Logan Webb On 15-Day Injured List

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Oct. 2: The Giants officially announced Webb’s IL placement, along with Junis being optioned to Triple-A Sacramento. Hjelle was recalled to take one active roster spot, with righty Luis Ortiz recalled to take the other.

Oct. 1: Logan Webb was scheduled to make his final start of the 2022 season on Sunday, but the Giants will instead be placing the right-hander on the 15-day injured list, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic).  Webb is dealing with stiffness in his lower back, so the Giants will make the precautionary move and recall another pitcher for what will now be a bullpen game against the Diamondbacks.  Righty Sean Hjelle might get the quick recall, as Hjelle was just optioned to Triple-A today when Jarlin Garcia was activated off the paternity list.

The IL placement will end Webb’s season after 32 starts and 192 1/3 innings, with that innings total ranking 11th among all pitchers entering today’s action.  After emerging as a quality starter for San Francisco in 2021, Webb has continued that strong work this year, posting a 2.90 ERA, 56.7% grounder rate, and an above-average 6.2% walk rate.  While his strikeout numbers dropped off considerably (20.7%, after a 26.5 K& in 2021) and Webb continued to allow a lot of hard contact, he was able to avoid severe damage by keeping the ball on the ground.  Webb allowed only 11 home runs over his 192 1/3 frames, and had an impressive 5.5% barrel rate.

Webb doesn’t turn 26 years old until November, and he will be entering the arbitration process for the first time this offseason.  Though Webb is under control through the 2025 season, it stands to reason that the Giants’ front office might have some talks with Webb’s camp about a multi-year contract extension this winter, in order to officially lock him up as a key piece of the rotation both now and for the future.

In fact, Webb currently projects as the ace of the 2023 staff since Carlos Rodon is a free agent.  San Francisco has Webb, Alex Cobb, Jakob Junis, Anthony DeSclafani, and Alex Wood lined up as next year’s rotation, but at least one more arm figures to be added — DeSclafani missed almost the whole season due to ankle problems, while Wood struggled and missed the end of the season due to a shoulder injury.

Giants “Listening” To Trade Offers For Veteran Players

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9:19PM: “Pretty much anyone not Logan Webb” could be discussed by the Giants in trade talks, as per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

8:17PM: The Giants have gone 11-22 over their last 33 games, dropping them below the .500 mark and putting them four games outside of the NL wild card race.  While the club was reportedly resistant on being deadline sellers as recently as three days ago, the Giants “now listening on their veterans” in trade talks, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand also tweeted that according to a rival executive, San Francisco was seemingly “ready to sell.”

Assuming that the Giants are indeed poised to become sellers to some extent, they immediately become an intriguing team to watch prior to Tuesday’s 5pm CT trade deadline.  President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has taken a measured approach to selloffs in the past, even during the 2019 and 2020 deadlines when the Giants had a lot more impetus to fully tear down an aging and expensive roster.  A major overhaul certainly doesn’t seem in the works this time around, as since the Giants are less than a season removed from winning 107 games, Zaidi certainly must feel his group can return to contention in 2023 (or could even regroup for a late playoff push this year).

Pending free agents are the most obvious trade candidates, and Carlos Rodon would immediately be a major new entry in the pitching market if the Giants made him available.  The left-hander is in the midst of an outstanding season, and recently unlocked a vesting option that allows Rodon to opt out of his contract following the season.  Rodon is owed $22.5MM in 2023, but since he can surely land a much more lucrative and longer-term pact in free agency, he looks like a sure bet to exercise his opt-out clause.

The White Sox decided against issuing a qualifying offer to Rodon last winter, and thus he is still eligible for the QO tag this offseason now that we know the qualifying offer system will still be in place.  The Giants can recoup a compensatory draft pick in exchange for Rodon’s services if he does sign elsewhere, and thus if any rivals teams are interested in Rodon at the deadline, they’ll have to offer San Francisco something of greater value than that compensatory pick.  Speculatively, that could be a player closer to the big leagues, since someone who can provide more immediate help might be preferable for a Giants team that plans to win next year.

As for other free agents, Wilmer Flores, Dominic Leone, and Joc Pederson would all garner interest, though Pederson was just placed on the seven-day concussion IL.  A team would be taking some risk in acquiring Pederson given the unpredictable nature of concussion-related symptoms, and of course the Giants’ return in a Pederson trade would be impacted by this uncertainty.

Evan Longoria is also on the injured list, as a right hamstring strain has continued an injury-plagued year for the veteran third baseman.  The Giants hold a $13MM club option on Longoria for 2023 that doesn’t look too likely to be exercised at this point, though Longoria has also stated that he might retire after the season.  Since Longoria has already started fielding drills is expected back in the first week or two of August, another team could take a flier on a veteran who has still quite well when healthy.  Longtime Giant Brandon Belt is also a free agent after the year, though a trade doesn’t seem too likely since Belt has also battled injuries and is having only an okay year at the plate.  Belt can also decline any trade due to his rights as a 10-and-5 veteran.

The Giants’ Breakout Young Starter

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Much has been made of the uncertainty in the Giants’ rotation beyond this season. Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto (whose club option is likely to be bought out) are all in line to hit free agency. The San Francisco front office will have their work cut out for them in reconstructing a starting staff, but they do have one long-term building block under control: Logan Webb.

Webb hasn’t gotten as much fanfare as he deserves, probably a byproduct of the numerous bounce-back and breakout seasons up and down the San Francisco roster. His volume has been held in check by a couple of mid-season stints on the injured list due to shoulder troubles. But when Webb has been healthy enough to take the ball — as he is at the moment — he’s been incredible.

The right-hander has been one of the league’s most successful at keeping runs off the board. Webb owns a 2.56 ERA over 112 1/3 frames, the eighth-lowest mark among pitchers with 100+ innings pitched. And he’s unanimously posted strong peripherals. Webb has struck out 27% of batters faced, a mark that’s more than four percentage points better than the 22.7% average for starters. That’s backed up by strong rates of swinging strikes (12.3%) and called strikes (18.8%), both of which are more than a point above average. Webb has always had solid control, and his 6.7% walk percentage this season is lower than the league-wide mark.

While Webb has been at least solid across the board, he’s been truly excellent at keeping the ball on the ground. His 60.8% grounder rate is second-highest (trailing only Framber Valdez) among that same group of starters. Webb has leaned more heavily on his sinker, one of the lower-spinning fastballs in the game, this season. Unlike with four-seamers, the lack of spin is a feature for the sinker. Lower spin makes it less resistant to gravity, generally enabling pitchers to get more downhill action on the offering. Unsurprisingly, his sinker has been one of the best ground-ball pitches in the game.

Webb’s wide array of abilities makes for a rare skillset. Only 17 of the 103 pitchers with 100+ innings have posted better than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. That’s not a unanimously great group — Adbert Alzolay and JT Brubaker haven’t had much success, for instance — but it’s certainly a positive indicator. 13 of those 17 hurlers have an ERA of 3.76 or lower, with five posting a sub-3.00 mark.

Webb has been good since the start of the season, but he’s really turned things on of late. Going back to the All-Star Break, he has an MLB-best 1.64 ERA in ten starts with high-end strikeout and walk rates. He’s benefitted from some batted ball and strand luck, but fielding independent pitching metrics still suggest Webb has been highly impressive. Only Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer have a SIERA better than Webb’s 3.00 since the Break, and his full-season mark of 3.18 is among the league’s ten best.

While the Giants’ front office will have plenty of decisions to make this offseason, they can at least pencil Webb in at or near the top of the 2022 rotation. The 24-year-old still has four more seasons of team control, and he won’t reach arbitration eligibility until the conclusion of next season. They could contemplate a long-term extension, but there’s still not yet a ton of urgency on that front.

One more pressing call that could be on the table is whether Webb’s breakout season has vaulted him to the top of this year’s rotation. San Francisco holds a one-game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West race after taking two of three from Los Angeles over the weekend. While they’re obviously hoping to hang onto that lead and avoid the Wild Card Game, there’s still a real chance they wind up in a one-game playoff next month.

If that ultimately turns out to be the case, Giants’ brass would face a tough choice deciding to whom to give the ball. Opening Day starter Gausman has been excellent going back two years and might be the top starting pitcher to hit the free agent market this offseason. But Webb has arguably been even better than Gausman this year. They’re essentially tied in ERA. Gausman has a slight edge in punchouts but Webb’s been much better at racking up grounders. Webb has the edge in SIERA and the two have nearly identical marks in FIP (2.89 for Gausman, 2.90 for Webb).

That would be a moot point if the Giants hold onto the division. Even if they do wind up in the Wild Card, having to make that kind of difficult decision is a good “problem” to have. That’s a testimony to Webb’s fantastic campaign, one which makes him the long-term anchor of a Giants’ rotation that could see plenty of upheaval elsewhere a few months from now.

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