While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the league’s pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? We’ll be taking a look at some of the top candidates this week, starting with the American League today:
The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner tops the list of contenders again this year. Somehow, Skubal has been even more dominant than he was last year. Through 16 starts and 102 innings, he has improved his ERA (2.29), FIP (2.11), strikeout rate (32.1%), walk rate (3.3%), SIERA (2.46), and xERA (2.61) relative to his full season numbers last year. He’s even pitching slightly deeper into games so far this year, averaging 6.37 innings per start as compared to last year’s 6.19.
For a hurler who won the pitching Triple Crown in the AL last year to improve upon that performance the very next year is remarkable, and Skubal figures to remain the favorite to win the award for a second consecutive season if he can maintain this level of production going forward. There’s plenty of competition in the AL, however, so even a minor slip up down the stretch could give the edge to another candidate.
Crochet has been nearly as dominant as Skubal in many respects. After breaking out with the White Sox last year and getting traded to the Red Sox over the offseason, he’s turned in a 2.06 ERA and 2.53 FIP across 17 starts. Crochet leads the majors with 109 1/3 innings pitched, and while his 31.3% strikeout rate is just behind that of Skubal, he’s still struck out more batters (135) than any pitcher in baseball this year. While Crochet and Skubal appear to be more or less equals on paper, with Crochet having a lower ERA and an extra start under his belt while Skubal has stronger peripheral numbers, there are some other factors working against Boston’s ace.
Crochet is more or less untested in the second half after throwing just 40 2/3 innings after July 6 last year. After that date, the lefty never recorded an out in the fifth inning or later and topped out at just 77 pitches in an outing. Even with that less strenuous workload, his numbers suffered as he posted a 4.87 ERA down the stretch. Chicago’s decision to handle Crochet gently down the stretch last year was an understandable one given his injury history, but it creates some uncertainty about how he’ll handle the first true full-season starter’s workload of his career. Additionally, Crochet has a 7-4 record on a team that might wind up selling at the trade deadline this year. While the Cy Young is an individual award, some voters consider a pitcher’s record and their team’s success, which could benefit other candidates with more dominant records on clear playoff teams.
Signed to the largest deal for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history this past offseason, Fried has stepped up as the Yankees’ new ace while Gerrit Cole rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Fried has a sterling 1.92 ERA in 17 starts (108 innings), though he’s done so without the gaudy strikeout numbers of other top Cy Young contenders. His 24.5% strikeout rate is above-average but not otherworldly, but he makes up for that by walking just 4.9% of his opponents and generating grounders at a 53.1% rate.
Even with a career-high 6.5% barrel rate allowed this year, Fried remains one of the sport’s best hurlers when it comes to pitching to contact. His 2.74 FIP and 3.17 SIERA are both elite as well, and more traditional voters will love his 10-2 record, which is good for the most pitcher wins in baseball this year and the best winning percentage in the AL.
Brown is in the midst of an exciting breakout season with the Astros at just 26 years old. His 1.88 ERA is the lowest figure in all of baseball among qualified starters, and while he has just 91 innings of work under his belt so far, he’s still averaging more than six innings per start. Brown’s heroics have helped push the Astros back to the front of the pack in the AL West after a tough start to the year.
There are some reasons to doubt Brown’s ability to sustain quite this level of dominance. He’s benefited from a .244 BABIP and an 88.4% strand rate. That good fortune on batted balls and sequencing is very likely to regress toward the mean eventually, though his 2.84 FIP and 2.96 SIERA are still excellent thanks largely to a 31.6% strikeout rate, an 8.1% walk rate and a strong 46.8% ground-ball rate.
Bubic has picked up the slack for injured ace Cole Ragans in the Kansas City rotation and has put together an elite season that rivals any of his competition on this list. He’s posted an excellent 2.18 ERA, fanned 26% of his opponents and kept his walk rate down at a sharp 7.3%. Bubic has had some good fortune when it comes to home runs, however; only 4.8% of the fly-balls he’s allowed have cleared the fence, as compared to the 15.1% homer-to-fly-ball rate he carried into the season. It’s doubtful he can continue quite that level of home run suppression, but he has the makings of a front-line arm even if a few more of those flies start leaving the yard.
Bubic has tossed 91 innings in 15 starts, averaging just a hair over six frames per outing. It’s worth wondering how he’ll hold up as the season wears on. Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 and pitched just 66 combined innings between the big leagues and minors. His 91 frames are already his most in a season since he pitched 142 2/3 innings in 2022.
This is the healthiest deGrom has been in a half decade, but you wouldn’t notice virtually any layoff based on the results. The multi-time Cy Young winner has posted a 2.08 ERA and 3.02 FIP across 95 1/3 innings in his age-37 season. He’s set down 25.9% of his opponents on strikes and only walked 5.5% of the batters he’s faced. deGrom had some short starts early, but he’s averaging nearly 6 1/3 innings per outing with a 1.67 ERA dating back to April 18.
As with Bubic, there are workload questions. This is already the most innings deGrom has pitched in a season since 2019. He’s only 33 1/3 innings away from matching his combined total from 2022-24 (majors and minors included).
Other Options
The field of potential AL Cy Young candidates this year is a very deep one. Framber Valdez remains one of the sport’s top ground ball pitchers with a 59.5% grounder rate to go alongside his 2.88 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 16 starts. Joe Ryan has a 2.86 ERA, including a 2.38 mark over the past two months. Drew Rasmussen boasts a 2.45 ERA, but his 84 1/3 innings place him more than 30 frames behind the league leaders. They’re all pitching well enough that a big second half could get them in the conversation. Nathan Eovaldi has an absurd 1.56 ERA on the season, but he’s missed the past month with triceps inflammation. Relievers Andrés Muñoz (18 saves, 1.21 ERA), Aroldis Chapman (14 saves, 1.36 ERA) and Josh Hader (21 saves, 1.73 ERA) have all been brilliant, but it’s hard enough for relievers to get consideration in a normal season — let alone one where the top group of starters has performed this well.
Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL Cy Young voting? Will Skubal reign supreme once again, or could another challenger step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:
I have 5 of the pitchers mentioned on my fantasy team and my team still sucks lol
I guess you should’ve mixed in some position players when drafting.
You can draft offense?! Dang it lesson learned for next year lol
Teach that to the Braves too.
Haha I know right. When pugs fly
Offense wins fantasy baseball. Depending on the size of the league (10 man for me) I don’t touch a pitcher until round 9 or 10. Plenty of good waiver options throughout the season.
@braveshomer
Your best bet is to draft a few core offensive guys who are usually going to play most of the season (not injury prone) along with 2 or 3 core starters that are reliable. The rest of your team will be just wavier wire pick ups based on the schedule for that day with the best stacking potential. I’ve done well with this formula for season-long fantasy games. The tough part is trying to get SB points so if you know a guy who’s good offensively and steals a lot of bases, pay up for him.
I’ve literally have had 20+ players go on IL. Plus I mistakenly took Mookie Betts and several Orioles and Rangers players who all are having terrible seasons smh.
Amazing that Tarik was a 9th round pick
It doesn’t matter where you’re drafted… there are the Tarik Skubals, the Mike Piazzas, and the Mookie Bettses of the world and the Matt Bushes, Mark Appels, and the Brady Aikens of the world.
And your point ?
Where you’re drafted in the draft doesn’t matter. It’s what you do to improve and grow in the minors that will decide whether you will overcome the hurdle of the majors or not.
Then I guess we shouldn’t be paying millions to first round draft picks then huh?
It does matter, and that’s why he even mentioned him being a 9th-round pick. One is allowed to both respect the hustle and comment on how low someone was valued coming out of school.
Brian Woo!!
Maybe in 5 seasons
At least give a shoutout to Nathan Eovaldi. He just gets better when he gets older. (Still a victim to injuries…)
Eovaldi is mentioned. He’s just not a poll choice since he’s missed a month already and will still be out another couple weeks at least.
Ah, okay. I apparently somehow missed him when reading the article. My eyes are starting to wear off.
Been awesome everywhere but with my Yankees lol. Love that he’s had a great career cause there was some doubt early on
Garrett Crochet won’t win it because of win count and Sox can’t win for him. Of the three, he has the most WAR.
I voted Skubal but I think I am wrong. This one isn’t so easy and we need to see the rest before choosing.
Felix Hernandez won it with a poor win/loss record.
Greinke, too, but even better: a juicy Gagne with 2 wins against 55 saves.
Not necessarily true. Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young in 2010 with a 13-12 record, which wasn’t even top 5 in the AL that year. If Crochet can lead in other categories the wins may not matter as much
Skubal has the most WAR
Not according to baseball reference
Not according to a site that uses the wrong formula? That’s awesome
Why do they use the wrong formula? Care to explain?
I do not believe WAR is best used for pitchers anyway. I think it factors, but it seems more fluky for pitchers. And I doubt Crochet wins it because the Sox are so poor regardless
Even though he’s injured tyler mahle
Even though fried and crochet and degrom and brown are having extremely strong years the cy young has to go to skubal
If the reigning cy young award winner gets better than before than of course he should win it again
I would like to think that would matter, but look no further than N. Jokic in the NBA. Had arguably a better statistical season this year vs last, and lost in MVP voting. As long as humans vote on these awards, the biases will prevail. The writers need to support the seasonal agenda being pushed.
Skubal if you have followed his starts closely has started to show some weariness, 6IP 6H 4ER 2 HR in Tuesday’s start against the A’s, 5.2IP 6H 2ER 3BB in his start on the 19th against the Pirates.
DeGrom has been as good as any pitcher in the AL, had a no hitter through seven yesterday against an Orioles team that has hit well over the past month.
It’s a long summer, all the candidates are in it, should be a good race.
They really should put up two other awards – one for closers and one for middle relievers.
Who would be nominated for best middle reliever this season in the AL?
Both those starts came after long travel days, and a rain delay during a double header. He’s fine.
Skubals last starts have also dealt with long rain delays which throws him off a bit
I vote DeGrom to start the all-star game as the best pitcher in the first half.
As far as the best closer, I’d say Hader in Houston. Cade Smith in Cleveland has been the best high leverage reliever.
Houston’s bullpen has been really good. With Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez, Framber too should be in consideration. Houston has the best pitching staff in MLB. Colton Gordon shut down the Phillies last night, a tough righty lineup. If he continues to get outs against righties he is going to be real good. McCullers is a good arm too. Astros are moving into the top five teams in MLB without Yordan Alvarez. Spencer Arrighetti returns mid season to give the rotation some much needed depth.
Lamar Jackson intensifies
I don’t see Jonah Bride of the Twins mentioned !!
He was but by his alias, “Other.”
Just been a great season for AL CY Young race! Love how many LHP are dominating out there!
It seemed like you had to be a Met fan to realize how great deGrom was, while the rest of baseball wasn’t as clued in. Look at him now!
He is freaking amazing.
I think we will probably end up with Skubal / Fried / Crochet in that order.
I don’t have faith that the Red Sox will be in the playoff hunt post trade deadline, and that will affect Crochet – why run him into the ground if they’re not fighting for a playoff spot?
Fried for the win! Tarik is due for a rough stretch due to injury problems. Just my prediction.
Joe Ryan!
ESPN has Max Fried in the AL, so I’ll pick him.
Skubal
It’s probably Skubal, but Andres Muñoz is having a Cy Young season.
The winner would be Hunter Brown if decided today. He has the leagues best ERA and is 4th in Ks and win, while Houston is in first place. Just because Brown and Crochet haven’t had the chance to do it in the second half of a season is no reason to say they aren’t winning the race right now.
Wins are such an outdated metric. I’m amazed we’re still talking about them.
No declarations at this stage. The top 5 or so are dealing big time. Even someone like Valdez is a legit long shot.
What about Senga of the Mets?
He’s a NL pitcher and currently injured.
It’s a long, hot summer…..
Are ERA stats lower this year?
I don’t remember so many 2. ERAs before…
Skuuuuuubal !!
AL Cy Young winner will be Clayton Kershaw.
Playing for the Dodgers.
Yeah, because everybody knows he’s gonna be willing to waive his no-trade claus and leave the defending WS Champions who are poised to win again so he can go to the AL…. 😂
Anyone who doesnt think Hunter Brown has been the best pitcher in all of baseball this year is either biased or doesnt pay attention to baseball in detail. He has better numbers than any pitcher in MLB thus far. Admittedly, its an uphill battle because the media always favor the darling like Skubal so he’s gonna have to beat him by a mile just to even be considered, sadly…. 😔