While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. With an MVP set to be crowned in both leagues after the season, that means two players are already halfway through a year that will earn them the sport’s most prestigious individual award. Who are the frontrunners to claim the trophy for themselves this offseason? We’ll be looking at both leagues over the next two days, starting with the American League:
Major stars like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Kyle Tucker have migrated to the National League in recent years, but Judge would arguably have entered the season as the odds-on favorite even if he were still competing with them. The slugger already won the MVP award in both 2022 and ’24. Ohtani won back-to-back MVP awards in 2023 and ’24, but those were for two different teams in two different leagues. Judge would be the first player to win back-to-back MVPs in the same league since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and ’13. Uncommon as the feat may be, Judge seems well positioned to pull it off. His .367/.468/.727 (225 wRC+) slash line is nothing short of comical, and he already has an absurd 6.0 WAR season according to Fangraphs through just 77 games.
That’s a higher total than stars like Jackson Merrill and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were able to cobble together in a full slate of games last year, and it’s hard to argue with those numbers. Dominant as Judge has been, however, it must be pointed out that he’s currently benefiting from an eye-popping .453 BABIP. That figure is 100 points higher than his career mark, which is already at the high end of the spectrum for sustainable BABIP figures. It would be the highest BABIP by a qualified player since 1871 if he were to maintain it over a full season, and just the second time a player posted a BABIP of even .400 since 2002, joining Yoan Moncada’s 2019 campaign.
If anyone has a chance to challenge Judge for the title, Raleigh likely has the best shot. He’s hit a whopping 31 home runs this season to capture the MLB-wide lead, and his .276/.383/.659 (191 wRC+) slash line is almost as incredible as that of Judge. Raleigh’s 5.1 fWAR is second in the majors to Judge as well, and he’s even managed to chip in on the bases by swiping nine bags in 11 opportunities. Of course, the most impressive thing about Raleigh’s season is that he’s doing all of this while playing the game’s most taxing defensive position. He’s caught 58 of the 75 games he’s appeared in, and if he keeps this up over the full season he’d surpass legendary seasons by Buster Posey in 2012 and Johnny Bench in 1972 to put together the best season behind the plate in MLB history.
The biggest obstacle to Raleigh turning this first-half momentum into an MVP win is, of course, Judge. While Raleigh has the edge in terms of baserunning, defense, home runs, and strikeout rate, Judge is leading in WAR, wRC+, walk rate, all three triple slash categories, and games played. There’s no question about whose season has been more productive when stripping away the context of Raleigh’s position, and Judge might need to cool off significantly in the second half just for their numbers to be comparable when all is said and done.
After finishing second to Judge in 2024 AL MVP voting with a stellar campaign, Witt is back at it this year with another banner year. His elite shortstop glove has made him the second most valuable defender in baseball according to Fangraphs, and he’s already stolen 21 bases after swiping just 31 total last year. With that being said, the power that allowed him to swat 32 homers last year has taken a big step back. The drop off in power has left him with a .286/.343/.490 (123 wRC+) slash line that’s well above average but not quite MVP-caliber, and he would likely need to turn things up a notch in the second half and benefit from steps backward by Judge and Raleigh in order to have a chance at coming home with the trophy.
Perhaps the most surprising entrant into this list, Pena has never so much as made an All-Star appearance in his career but is in the midst of an incredible season. He’s slashed .326/.380/.493 (149 wRC+) in 78 games so far this year with 11 homers and 15 steals in 17 attempts alongside an excellent 16.1% strikeout rate. That wRC+ is seventh-highest among qualified AL hitters, and Pena benefits further from playing a valuable defensive position in shortstop. With that being said, he’s not quite on the level of Witt defensively and his .365 BABIP is elevated well outside the range of his career norms. Like Witt, he’ll likely need a massive slowdown in production from Judge and Raleigh in order to be a serious contender for the award this year.
Other Options
Judge, Raleigh, Witt, and Pena are all more or less in a class of their own at this point in the season, and even Witt and Pena would need a lot to go right in order for them to catch the two front-runners. With that being said, there are some other at least plausible candidates. Tarik Skubal continues to dominate on the mound and his 3.9 fWAR tally matches that of Witt and Pena. Jose Ramirez remains as consistent as ever and could put up another 30-30 season this year. Jonathan Aranda has been one of baseball’s best hitters this year but doesn’t play a premium position. Byron Buxton has flashed all five tools this year with strong defense, elite speed, and a 155 wRC+ but will have trouble garnering much attention with just 60 games played so far.
Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL MVP voting? Will Judge reign supreme once again, or could another challenger like Raleigh step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:
Mariners are on such a drought to WS they better capitalize on Cal’s historic season
Many teams haven’t won a WS… Mariners aren’t alone
There are only 5 teams that haven’t won a World Series, not sure that counts as “many”. And the Mariners are the ONLY team to never even make it to the World Series.
longest WS drought
SEA NA (1977 expansion team)
PIT 1979
MIL 1982
BAL 1983
ATH 1990
CIN 1990
MIN 1991
TOR 1993
Everybody else has been to the World Series in the 2000s
I thought it was more than 5, but good catch.
@Cora, the Mariners are the only team not to play in a World Series.
Mariners are the only team to never lose a World Series game. Why pick on us when we’re not a big loser like the other 29 teams?
Mariners have never lost a game because they’ve never won enough to make it there. No one is picking on you. You’re just a really badly run org.
My comment said NOTHING about winning a WS — Mariners as stated have not been to a WS that is the core of my comment.
I see that now but the context was not 100% clear
Sadly the Marlins have 2
It’s ironic the Marlins have 2 without a single division win to their name.
The Mariners aren’t known for capitalizing on this kind of thing, but I agree!
By trading him…?
Jonathan Aranda has been the Rays everyday 1st baseman. Yandy Diaz is the almost everyday DH this year.
I’m not surprised at how well aranda has done, I’m just surprised at how slow he is.
He doesn’t play a premium position, which didn’t hurt Shohei at all.
Cal is also a Platinum Glove winner at his position. Judge is nowhere close to that.
Judge was crappy in CF last year but he is a GG RF.
Gold Glove isn’t a Platinum Glove. Again, Judge is nowhere close to Cal’s talent defensively. Catcher is a much more physically/mentally demanding position defensively on top of it, and he’s the best in either league.
Raleigh this year
-5 DRS
From Statcast’s standpoint +2 runs on framing, average on everything else.
Your argument would be best if you weren’t dragging Judge’s defense and were just focused on Raleigh donning the tools of ignorance.
Using DRS for 1/4 of a season of work is silly. It’s also impossible to measure Cal’s work with the pitching staff in a statistic represented by a single number.
Cal Raleigh is the worst game caller and catcher to ever “work” with a pitching staff in the history of baseball. It’s impossible to measure this, I just know because I don’t like something somebody else said.
you’re comparing LAST YEAR’S defense. the problem is that THIS YEAR’S MVP has nothing to do with that. as the other commenter said, Raleigh’s defense hasn’t been good this year (-5 defensive runs saved, 82nd in baseball among catchers), and Judge’s has been decent, in his natural position. Judge is 87th percentile in Range (OAA), 95th percentile in arm value, and 90.1th percentile in Arm strength. He has +3 DRS, which is 12th best in baseball among right fielders.
Judge is exceptionally solid in right. He does nothing wrong and has a gun for an arm, as the elder Costanza would say
@Zappa You’re arguing without research.
Judge is 87th percentile in range (OAA) and 95th percentile in Arm value. He is absolutely an elite defensive RF which has contributed to a ridiculous 6 WAR in half of a season.
You can prop up Raleigh without slinging baseless, false smears at Judge.
Judge plays in NYC and has a big contract.
I miss the days when the MVP wasn’t measured by batting stats alone. The team had to contend, and the player was a team leader by leadership traits, not HRs.
Andre Dawson won his MVP for a last place team and with home runs, way back in the old days.
QP
Dawson won the MVP,that was long before Bill James and analytics took hold. Tony Gwynn led the league in hitting (.370 ) and war (8.4) . Dawson had 4.0. Gwynn was also on a last place team that won 5 fewer games than the Cubbies.
stats courtesy of . baseball reference
love that site
Judge would still be the MVP based on that criteria. I’m not sure what you’re trying to argue?
I don’t think that a player should be penalized for being on a bad team, Ohtani in ’21 and ’23 for example
I don’t understand why the contrast in Home Parks does not get much discussion. The difference in the two home parks could not be bigger! Don’t get me wrong Aaron Judge is having a sensational season but the two hitters play 81 games in vastly different parks. Judge could hit a broken bat pop up over the RF porch in Yankee Stadium. Cal raleigh plays in a ball park that is dead last in Park Factors.
Re: the Dumpers HR tally – he’s hit more than a third of that tally from the Right side! Surely his switch hitting ability should factor into the equation. Lets face it though, for every West Coast team not named the Dodgers, an East Coast Bias ‘is a thing!’ It might be hard for people on the East Coast to understand but trust me that bias is 100% a factor in things like this.
It’ll likely be Judge but what CR is doing is incredible and historic. Should be interesting.
Time for the writers to realize it’s the American League, not the Judge Plays For A New York Team League.
Judge is statistically the best player in the entire league not just the AL and his team is in first place. Seems like an obvious MVP candidate
What a ballplayer. Definitely MVP caliber play yr in and out. Next step for Aaron is flashing that regular season slash line in the playoffs.
Earlier this year there was an article saying Raleigh “obviously” won’t stay on his 50 hr pace. The only thing I could comment was “watch big dumper drop 50 bombs”.
I might have been wrong. He may hit more than 50.
He’s definitely being helped by Seattle’s stadium, but in most ballparks, he’d have low 20s for bombs this year. Still great, still with an outside chance at 50, but things are going to cool off.
Helped by Seattle’s stadium?
That would be a first.
Feel free to look at Baseball Savant. It looks at batted ball data to calculate how many home runs each player would have in any given ballpark if they played all their games there. Certainly unusual to see Seattle’s stadium help a hitter with HRs, but the black and white results say Raleigh would have 27 in Seattle, 33 in Houston is the highest. Only 18 at Wrigley, which is the lowest.
If you are measuring by distance only, then yes, I would agree with you. Cal is hitting it through that heavy Marine layer. A 400 ft HR in Seattle may travel 420 in many of the other parks.
Are you taking his total homeruns and measuring them against ballparks? That’s weird, since half of his games aren’t in his home park. It seems like you just want to discredit him, and this is a flimsy way to do it.
He sorta disproved that this weekend, since he hit 4 at wrigley…. the Seattle conditions are likely depressing the distance of his home runs at home, he’d still hit them in those other ballparks, they’d just go further when hit with the same launch angle and velocity
That Baseball Savant statistic is silly and useless.
If only he hit on the moon!
Lots of fired up Cal Raleigh supporters quick to discredit stats they don’t understand. Here’s the bottom line, Raleigh has been lucky in the number of home runs he’s hit. The luck will “probably” go the other way, but maybe it won’t. He’s having an epic season. It’ll be fun to watch how things turn out regardless.
Ah yes T-Mobile Park, notorious hitter friendly stadium. So friendly that every hitter they acquire must have career best, or close to it, type of seasons. Surely no hitter has gone to Seattle, underperformed their prior seasons numbers, left, and then went on to better seasons.
@JT70. Your comment read in the comic book guy’s voice from the Simpsons in my head. Which is also very Seattle.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cal-raleigh-6…
Curiously, taking a brief look at the Baseball Savant section, I didn’t see if they factored in fly balls that would be home runs in other ball parks. Correct me if I missed something, but that provided info doesn’t really tell you a whole lot without factoring in fly balls hit in Seattle (along with all other parks he’s played in so far) that would be home runs in other parks (and other park conditions like the marine layer). Fields can have weird outfield dimensions, something that makes baseball unique, and maybe factoring in total fly balls might provide better, more robust information? Just seems pretty common sense.
I do see on 2nd read that it does take “environmental effects” into account in the calculation. Presumably that covers the high humidity in Seattle.
It’s like 2022 where even with the spectacle factor, I don’t see how someone can deny Judge the award, assuming current rates. Also, I think the Peña link is to the wrong player.
Wrong Jose Ramirez entry too
I think Raleigh benefits from being on a mediocre team. Pitchers are still pitching to him and are not as cautious as they are with Judge. No one knows if Raleigh will keep getting pitches to hit.
This isn’t giving Raleigh nearly the credit he deserves. His discipline at the plate has taken a rather large leap forward and he’s putting himself in better counts to get pitches to hit as well.
@Denis, you’ve got the logic backwards. Pitchers have to pitch to Judge because the Yankees are a high-salaried club with lots of pop behind him. Pitchers will ultimately start walking Raleigh to pitch to Arozarena or Raley.
Raleigh has a higher walk rate than Judge.
Wait a minute..how about Riley Greene… he’s the best position player on the best team and he NOT EVEN mentioned?
But how are his fantasy numbers?
Riley Greene should not be even close to the MVP conversation.
Gabe….Do you watch any Tigers games?
I mean no disrespect to Greene. I’ve been voting for him for all-star daily. He’s an amazing player.
But he’s not in the same ballpark as Raleigh or Judge.
(Also, this might just be me being biased due to only having watched Skubal tiger games, but isn’t he the tigers best player?)
I’d vote for Tarik Skubal.
Dude could, maybe should, finish in the top 10 in the voting. That’s really good season.
Gotta go with Big Dumper.
I think it’s Judge without question but it’s not doing the Yankees any good
It’s Judge, but there’s a half a season to go. Raleigh can win it, but I suspect he’ll slow down the second half. Judge is in a momentary lull, but history says this is the calm before the storm.
Cal is a catcher so that’s going to slow him down some. My money is still on Judge when the dust settles.
What history was that? When did he hit .367 before the break and have a better second half?
It’s just the normal ups and downs of a season that a player goes through. Is Judge going to finish the season with a .400 batting average? No. The way a baseball season goes for an elite hitter like Judge is probably going to pan out wuth him hitting anywhere between .340 and .350. This is all of course barring any injuries.
The calm after the storm is called “playoffs.”
Sadly unless judge gets injured right now there’s no way anyone else can win the mvp, even if Raleigh hits 63 homers
There’s media bias favoring judge and people (writers/voters) are going to use the argument that judge is on the better team therefore he should win it
I could see judge slumping and having a lower ops but still winning mvp
Cal Raleigh is a media favorite as well. Every time he does something it is announced on my phone.
What did Cal Raleigh have for lunch today?
Well he did go try out an Ice Cream shop in Chicago and then hit two home runs a few days ago.
Skubal
I never use the busted fWAR metric for catcher seasons. Framing is a junk stat and it introduces wild swings in values.
I’m not a huge fan of bWAR, either, but at least it isn’t based on total junk.
Piazza 8.7
Bench 8.6
Carter 8.6
Mauer 7.8
Posey 7.6
Porter 7.6
Some of the guys best seasons who were at Posey’s best production.
Pudge was on a pace for about 8 in 2000.
Go ahead and give the season MVP to Judge Cal is going for WS MVP!
Love the mention of the darling of baseball writers, Byron Buxton. Writers have been smashing the Buxton MVP button since the late 2010s, but Buck is just like Raleigh and Judge right now with production far inflated over expected results. Buck is a very good player, and if he ever puts together a full season (he’ll probably still get hurt again), he’ll throw together a season which is within a stretch of an down MVP year vote, but seeing him put up more than 6 WAR isn’t reasonable, IMHO.
Judge is going to win if he doesn’t get hurt. He’s on another planet, even using his expected metrics. Raleigh and Witt JR, maybe Vladdy JR could make a run at it if Judge loses time or falls off hard due to injury.
Or gets traded out of NY.
You must have a giant boat, stymee… cuz that’s a BIG “or”!!!
martras: If we’re going to use metrics, analytics, ouija boards, why bother playing the rest of the season? Just use expected metrics and a crystal ball to factor where players will finish the year.
On Buxton, he’s pretty much putting together a full season. I’m not sure what you’re referencing to make you believe he’s hitting above his weight class. 2nd fastest sprint speed in MLB this season (as of a few weeks ago, at least) at 31 years old, elite centerfield defense, and very, very good offensive profile thus far. I think I’m pretty high on Buck compared to a lot of fans, and I wouldn’t put him in the top 2 or 3 on an MVP ballot, but it’s not a stretch to see him as a top 5 guy. Of course, Buxton doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt that other players get in assuming good health, which is understandable to a degree, but the dude is honestly the only positive on Minnesota’s offensive lineup this season. No reason to trash the dude.
Judge’s season so far is the best of his career, in terms of both fWAR and wRC+.
If he keeps his present pace, he will have the best offensive non steroid season of any player, outside of Babe Ruth….better than Williams, Mantle, Cobb, Mays, Wagner, Gehrig, Hornsby, Speaker, Musial, and Foxx.
The only two seasons that match or exceed Judges 225 wRC+ were by Ruth….225 and 234.
Again, if Judge continues at this pace, he isnt the MVP like Babe Ruth wouldn’t ever have been an MVP.
Junior Caminero
How is Byron Buxton even a name you bring up?
How about you contribute to this and explain how he isn’t a name worth bringing up?
He has only played 60 games and he has a pretty significant history of not being able to stay on the field.
Jacob deGrom
TheDay…: That’s a good one. I’d like to see a P win MVP and the Cy Young in the same year, but it’ll never happen. The only only P I can think of who won two awards in one season is Vida Blue (Cy Young, Rookie of the Year).
I’m sorry but, you do know that both Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw have both won MVP and Cy Young before right?
As did Clemens
too bad Buxton is wasting a great season with the worst run team outside of Pittsburgh
The A’s and Rockies would like to have a word with you.
Witt and Pena aren’t even leading ASG votes for their position. No mention of Greene. Skubal anyone? He’s having a better season that last season. It’ll be Judge. The media won’t let it be Raleigh.
Why should All-Star Game voting have anything to do with the MVP race?
Should Omar Infante have gotten MVP votes the year that Royals fans voted him in as a starter?
Pretty much everyone agrees Wilson is having a better season. Witt gets mentioned, but Wilson doesn’t. Why else would it be other than hype?
I actually agree with you that they deserve more mention.
I’m just saying that using ASG voting in any argument for awards or ranking players is flawed logic.
Who is your “pretty much everyone”? While (presuming Jacob) Wilson is indeed having a great season and is hitting in the realm that Witt was last year, he’s also not nearly (and this is in no way a slight on him) the same defensive player.
Witt’s on pace for one of the highest OAA seasons in the history of that stat while being (“merely” when compared to his 2024 and Wilson’s 2025) an excellent bat at an up-the-middle position. Wilson has been a poor defender at SS thus far
Riley Green should get some votes.
the fact that Jeremy Pena is mentioned and Jacob Wilson is not is umm yeah, interesting…
Judge easy. Yankees really struggle to score when he isn’t carrying them.
As a Guardians fan, it’s immensely frustrating that Jose can never quite win one.
In all of his best seasons, there’s always been someone else that’s been just a little bit better. It seems like he’s always near the top of the voting but he hasn’t quite gotten one yet.
Ramire is one of my favorite players but his bref page lacks bold print numbers.
Cal will probably fall back a little. He almost has to considering what he’s done so far. All I can say as a Mariners fan is thank goodness we signed him a few months ago. Imagine how much money he would cost us right now!
You’re probably right but I hope he doesn’t and hits 50+ HRs.
Bench’s 1970 season was better than his 1972 season, and it doesn’t make any sense why he’d have more WAR in 72….
Riley Greene. Fielding matters.
Miguel Cabrera, now THAT was a generational talent, not the hyped up Juan Soto
Captainmike: It was inevitable that, once Ohtani was given the description of “Generational”, it was going to be used far too much. It’s Ohtani. Period.
People only call Soto a generational talent because of his age but he hasn’t achieved anything so far in his career and he’s probably 5 years older than he says he is.
I guess the Yankees would absolutely suck without Judge. So begrudgingly, I guess he is the most Valuable player.
The Yankees suck with or without Judge
Thats nice.. they wouldnt leading the AL east without him. They might not even be a .500 club without him.
Cal is more valuable to his team, even tho Judge’s #’s are better! I doubt Big Dumper will keep up this pace thru the dog days of summer, but it’s nice to be talking about the under-rated slugger up in Seattle!
The smartest player and someone who excels in every facet of the game – hitting, defense (although he’s had a few hiccups this year), base running, hustle, grit, and basic decision-making – is Jose Ramirez. There isn’t a player I’d take over him.
Riley Greene
If Cal can keep it going this season he deserves the MVP over Judge. Judge has been amazing but what Raleigh is doing as a catch, in Seattle, is way more impressive.
Judge gets all the benefit of playing in the AL East and their homer prone stadiums where Cal is playing all his home games in the worst hitters park in the league.
Nah. Judge still has more WAR and a higher .OPS. Keep crying about stadium dimensions even though you can go to Statcast and see he’d have the same amount of HRs had be played in Seattle every game. A’s, Angels, Astros, Rangers stadiums are total bandboxes btw and he’d have the same if not more HRs in those parks.
Wompwomp
Cal and it’s not even close.
Red Sox fan vs East coast bias. This is a tough one for me. A lot of fun to watch, though
You guys aren’t alone but why do you put Witt ahead of pena? lol. Pena is a clear MVP. Ahead of Witt. I’d argue ahead of Raleigh. Although Raleigh is having a historic season. Mariners are still terrible. With or without Raleigh. Take away Pena, astros would be done. They are leading the division b/c of Pena
Established levels and rest-of-season projections do favor Witt over Pena.
And your statement of how “terrible” the Mariners are while pointing out the “Astros would be done” without Pena is… interesting logic. How did you come up with that?
I have loved Cal since he first came up. I knew early on that he had the potential to become an MVP-caliber player.
I also respect Judge and how he has been a generational player in one of the best peaks in MLB history.
If Raleigh and Judge both keep up their respective paces, I can’t help but foresee a bittersweet feeling no matter which wins it. Raleigh could very well shatter the C HR record, C WAR record, break the SH HR and WAR records, and blow up the no-asterisk HR record, but still — reasonably — be only the second-most valuable player in the league.
Conversely, Judge could continue lighting the league on fair and have the first 13-win by anyone not nicknamed “the Babe”, but still — reasonably — not win the MVP award.
That’s not supposed to happen. That’s just… not fair.
Skuuuuuuubal !!