While days off and postponements leave each clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Who are the frontrunners to claim the MVP Award this offseason? MLBTR’s look at the American League saw Aaron Judge come away with 55% of the vote, and today we’ll be checking out the National League:
The reigning NL MVP hasn’t slowed down much after his 50-50 2024 campaign. Ohtani is slashing an incredible .289/.388/.627 (174 wRC+) through 78 games this year, with 27 home runs and 11 steals during that time. His status as a DH holds him back somewhat in terms of WAR, but he’s still second in the NL among hitters according to Fangraphs. He leads the league in homers and slugging percentage and clocks in within the top five in terms of on-base percentage. Ohtani’s expected numbers are quite good as well, as his .435 xwOBA is actually better than his wOBA and trails only Juan Soto among NL hitters. Of course, the real ace in the hole for Ohtani is the fact that he’s returning to pitching this year. He’s only thrown two innings so far, but his stuff has looked good in those abbreviated outings and he figures to only ramp up the volume as the season progresses.
Ohtani’s unicorn status as the only true two-way player in the sport will likely make him a frontrunner for the MVP Award every season until he either starts facing significant decline or retires from pitching. That said, he does not currently hold sole possession of the NL lead for fWAR even when combining his pitching and hitting numbers this year. His offensive numbers have not been quite as robust as they were last year, and he notably is not stealing bases anywhere near as frequently as he did when he was the second most valuable baserunner in the NL last season. For a player who’s won an MVP award in three of the last four seasons, voter fatigue can be a consideration as well; just ask Ohtani’s former teammate Mike Trout about the 2015 season. Will those potential weak spots be enough to let another player overcome him?
The dynamic 23-year-old’s breakout has been one of the biggest stories in the entire sport this year. Despite entering the 2025 season as a career 82 wRC+ hitter across parts of two seasons in the majors, Crow-Armstrong has slashed .273/.310/.563 (140 wRC+) across 78 games. That’s a very low on-base percentage for an MVP candidate, but Crow-Armstrong makes up for that flaw by being elite in every other regard. He’s fifth in the NL with 21 home runs, his 24 stolen bases are second only to Oneil Cruz, and he’s one of the most valuable defenders in the entire sport with +10 Outs Above Average. Taken together, it’s enough to give Crow-Armstrong a 4.0 fWAR figure that leads the league among hitters, and is tied with Ohtani when the latter’s work on the mound is factored in.
For those less statistically inclined, the fact that his breakout has been key to the Cubs’ ascent from mediocrity to become one of the league’s heavyweights could hold value with voters who differentiate between the “most valuable” player in the league and the “best” player in the league. Even with all of that going for him, it’s hard to consider Crow-Armstrong the favorite. Ohtani’s star power and uniqueness as a two-way player is difficult to match, and if he’s able to pitch effectively throughout the second half, it will be very difficult for Crow-Armstrong to not fall behind on the WAR leaderboard. What’s more, advanced metrics are somewhat skeptical of his offensive performance this year, as his .356 xwOBA is 16 points lower than his actual wOBA of .372. Crow-Armstrong’s plate discipline issues go beyond his anemic walk rate; he swings more often than any qualified hitter in baseball but has a below-average contact rate both overall and more specifically on pitches within the strike zone.
He’s lagging behind both Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong at this point, but Wood has been every bit the phenom the Nationals hoped he would be when acquiring him as part of the Juan Soto trade back in 2022. He’s hitting .281/.377/.561 (158 wRC+) in 80 games to go along with nine steals and solid defense in left field. His underlying offensive metrics are also immaculate, with top of the scale expected numbers, elite bat speed, and a 99th percentile barrel rate. It’s an exciting offensive performance, particularly from a player who’s just 22 years old. Some MVP voters could also hold the fact that Wood and his Nationals are not contenders against the budding young star.
Tatis is a familiar face in the NL MVP race, as he finished fourth for the award in 2020 before coming in third the following year. Injuries, a PED suspension, and a move from shortstop to right field have all changed the way Tatis is viewed around the league in the years since. That hasn’t stopped him from remaining a force within the Padres lineup, and this year he’s been one of the better all-around players in the NL. He’s slashing .264/.352/.459 (129 wRC+) with 15 homers and 15 steals, and his defensive value is second only to Crow-Armstrong among NL outfielders. Tatis also benefits from strong underlying numbers; his .390 xwOBA is 37 points higher than his .353 wOBA, and if he can play closer to those expected numbers in the second half, he could push his way up to the top of some ballots.
Other Options
While Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong appear to be the clear frontrunners at this point, Wood and Tatis aren’t the only potential challengers. Corbin Carroll is in the midst of a sensational season and was right there in the mix with the top two until news a wrist fracture yesterday left it uncertain when he’ll take the field next. Trea Turner and Kyle Tucker have both been excellent and could find themselves more firmly in this conversation if things break right in the second half. Will Smith is one of the league’s top hitters this year with a 170 wRC+ made all the more impressive by his status as a regular catcher, but he’s only played in 63 games so far.
Juan Soto’s first half has been somewhat disappointing by his standards (147 wRC+), but he’s on an absolute tear right now and his .458 xwOBA is right in line with last year’s monster performance. Elly De La Cruz is flirting with pace for a 40-40 season but hasn’t been nearly as rangy at shortstop this season in the eyes of defensive metrics, which has weighed him down a bit. He could still easily emerge as a candidate with a big second half. Paul Skenes, Logan Webb, and Zack Wheeler are all in the midst of dominant seasons on the mound, but it’s somewhat rare for a pitcher to win the MVP award.
Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in NL MVP voting? Will Ohtani reign supreme once again, or could another challenger like Crow-Armstrong step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:
Has a hitter ever won an MVP with a sub .300 OBP? I don’t think PCA will be on this list for much longer.
Lowest OBP for an MVP in MLB history is Zoilo Versalles at .319 in 1965. Only he, Marty Marion in 1944 at .324 and Andre Dawson in 1987 at .328 are the only hitters with a sub-.330 OBP and win MVP.
You mean among position players to win MVP, right? There are some pitchers who have won MVP who needed to hit on occasion.
I think it’s pretty obvious he means position players lol
The #1 indicator of long-term success with the bat is BB:K ratio. When I see a guy with a SLG as high as his and 14 walks in over 300 PA, it’s pretty clear he’s overperforming and will come back down to earth.
It’s always the guys with breakout seasons and bad eyes who end up flaming out. Hiura and Dalbec are two recent ones that come to mind.
Pretty cool that guy’s as young as PCA and Wood are in the discussion. In the article they state Ohtani is not the leader in WAR but then go on to say everyone on this list is tied or lower than him. Is he highest WAR in NL and Judge is higher or something?
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Don’t think he has enough AB’S to qualify as if this report
He’ll get to the plate apps hitting leadoff imo. I agree the question is if he can overcome Ohtani.
There’s no minimum number of ABs needed to get MVP votes. You’re just not as likely to win if your time on the field is limited.
If he can continue to hit near .400 and get enough plate appearances, he very well might be able to steal it.
Ultimately, I think it Ohtani’s to lose though
I’d love to see someone hit around .380+, but I just don’t think it’ll happen over a larger sample size. If Luis Arraez can’t in 2023 while striking out as little as he did, and Aaron Judge still comes down to earth to ‘only’ a .360-ish average while still tearing the cover off the ball, I don’t think Acuna will.
PCA all day.
I’d like to see PCA at least get votes, dude is having a great season.
His potential Extension keeps getting fatter!
Ketel Marte deserves some love too. That guy is as hot as anyone this year.
Marte only has 229 plate appearances right now, but 15 home runs and a 3.1 bWAR in that small of a sample size is crazy.
Especially for a second baseman.
Well, that fact that he’s a 2B is partly why is WAR is so high.
When isn’t Marte being slept on?
Yeah he is like the NL version of Jose Ramirez. Shows up every year in the MVP race, but nobody notices
I like that Marte comment …also look out for James Wood. Of course Shohei will be there. PCA should be and Tatis is a dark horse if the Pads can win
I wonder if the PED suspension has tainted Tatis for voters.
Marte’s a terrific player, but if a pitcher deserves it (and I’m not sure he does), then it has to be Logan Webb. Even when the Giants don’t score for him (which is often), he’s masterful and durable and worthy of MVP notice.
Marte is not a pitcher. He is a second baseman.
Michael Harris III
Lol.
Acuna
No mention of Alonso? I don’t like the guy either, but he’s having a great season.
I voted for Ohtani because he really exists. If, as it says here, he is actually a mythological figment of our imaginations, I would have voted for one of the real ballplayers.
Sir, Ohtani is a unicorn, get it right!
He sure hits a baseball a long way for an imaginary person.
And despite Ohtani’s great feats, I think the heart of the Dodgers is Freddie Freeman and/or Mookie Betts. I know that’s heretical to say but someone had to say it.
Carroll being mentioned in “other options” because of a recent (hopefully minor) injury is pretty ridiculous. He’s had a great year so far. Ohtani is probably the front runner as he always is.
Well, Carroll broke his wrist. It seems likely he’ll miss about 2 months.
Where is Ronald Acuna?
Not enough plate appearances to qualify yet.
“Ohtani’s unicorn status as the only true two-way player in the sport will likely make him a frontrunner for the MVP Award every season…”
Odd, because he hasn’t been a two-way player and was still almost an automatic. Also, although fifty-fifty is incredible, it was after the bases were changed and the distance between them shortened.
Everybody plays by those rules now, but you can bet nobody will have a shot at breaking that record for a long time to come, not even the man himself.
BTW, the “unicorn” analogy is just plain dumb. It makes no sense at all, and only sounds dumber the more it’s repeated.
I agree Blue. I don’t see anyone breaking that anytime soon. Acuna was perhaps the one to do it, but with his knee issues he’s not going to be stealing anywhere near that anymore.
It doesn’t mean he can’t still win when he doesn’t pitch, just that when he does do both it makes him an automatic frontrunner.
Most of baseball history the average fastball was in the 80s. Made it a little easier to steal. Modern statistical analysis also places way more emphasis on an out being bad so front offices needed something to make stealing more enticing.
Brendan Donovan is 100% the mvp this year and it’s not even close. Funny you guys always leave out cardinal players, and I’m not even a cardinal fan. Site must be run by a bunch of cubs fans. PCA being on here is a joke.
Donovan wouldn’t even be in the top 10 discussion if the season ended today.
Buddy shouldn’t you be somewhere else glazing your steroid mascot judge right about now?
It’s about another hour before glazing time for me. Buckle up.
Hahahha I’m a Dbacks fan bro and I can’t stand PCA but there is absolutely no way you’re saying he isn’t in the MVP race. Donovan is having a great season but it’s not MVP caliber. If anyone should be on here that isn’t it’s Ketel Marte and I think a lot of people would agree.
At the end of the day, PCA has every right to be on this list despite how much I dislike him. If you’re gonna say something like that maybe know a little bit more about the guy
Why do you dislike Crow-Armstrong so much?
Donovan would be the Cardinals’ MVP at this point, but his numbers still pale in comparison to those other guys.
I’d surmise they gave the award to Ohtani as soon as he showed up at spring training no matter what anyone’s stats are
Donovan Lololololol
I think we know all the poopy in your body is in your brain William
Probably someone from the Rockies. I just can’t pinpoint that player just yet.
Cal Quantril, 100%
KETEL MARTE IS SO UNDERRATED
KETEL MARTE
He is so underrated
Since you said it twice, he’s officially overrated now.
Ketel Marte is triple underrated.
I triple dog dare you to take that back, Boggsy!
You’re a triple dog!
Who will win and who I think should win are different questions. I think Ohtani will win. PCA would have my vote if I consider narrative (Cubs’ ascension, recent pitching woes notwithstanding) and his OBP were higher. But I’m one of those guys who think it should be more difficult for a pitcher to win an MVP, not impossible. If I had a vote, I’d cast it for Skenes. Terrible team, but incredible season by him. Kind of comes down to how one defines MVP.
MVP is Machado. He may not be the best player, but SD would be another 8 games back (and out of it) if he hadn’t carried the team this past month.
If you’re just going to pick the best player, then change the name of the award.
Acuna is coming on strong
A lot of baseball yet to play but man, it sure seems like anyone in the National League is fighting an uphill battle to just be considered alongside Ohtani every year.
Braves get into the playoffs and Ronald Acuna Jr. wins MVP.
Will Smith