Phillies ace Zack Wheeler signed a three-year, $126MM contract extension in March 2024 that covers the 2025-27 seasons. It appears as though that will be the final deal of Wheeler’s career, as The Athletic’s Matt Gelb writes that Wheeler is aiming to retire following the 2027 campaign, at age 37.
Plenty can change within the next two and a half years, of course, and even such teammates as J.T. Realmuto have some doubt that Wheeler would really hang up the cleats if he is still healthy and pitching well by the time the 2027 season wraps. That said, Wheeler said “it’ll be easy to walk away” from baseball — not because of any burnout or lack of drive, but simply because Wheeler is looking forward to spending time with his family.
Should the right-hander continue on his current track through his planned retirement date, Wheeler will surely draw some attention from Cooperstown voters. Since the start of the 2018 season, Wheeler leads all pitchers in fWAR (35.7), and only teammate Aaron Nola has thrown more innings than Wheeler’s 1289 frames. He has a 3.14 ERA over those eight-plus years, and a 3.31 ERA for the entirety of his 11 big league seasons.
Selected sixth overall by the Giants in the 2009 draft, Wheeler has more than lived up to the high expectations that came with that high pedigree, though he famously never pitched a game in a San Francisco uniform. The Giants dealt Wheeler to the Mets at the 2011 trade deadline for Carlos Beltran, as the Giants made the bold decision to acquire a star rental player in order to make a bid for the playoffs. San Francisco’s three World Series titles from 2010-14 give the organization some leeway when looking back at “what if?” scenarios, yet it is intriguing to wonder if keeping Wheeler might have allowed the Giants to extend their contention window deeper into the decade.
That said, Wheeler’s time in New York was interrupted by injury, as he didn’t pitch at all in 2015-16 due to both a Tommy John surgery and a strained flexor tendon. He naturally showed some rust in his return to the mound in 2017, but then pitched well enough over the next two seasons to make him one of the most prized members of the 2019-20 free agent class. The Phillies inked Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM contract that now stands as one of the best free agent pitching deals in history, given how Wheeler has elevated his game since arriving in the City of Brotherly Love.
Wheeler has a 2.93 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate, and a 5.7% walk rate over 911 1/3 regular-season innings in a Phillies uniform, as well as a 2.18 ERA over 70 1/3 playoff innings. Wheeler has twice been an NL All-Star during his time with the Phils, and he was the runner-up in NL Cy Young Award voting in both 2021 and 2024. The righty is only a couple of weeks removed from his 35th birthday, but he continues to be one of the league’s top arms this season, with a 2.85 ERA, 6% walk rate, and a 32% strikeout rate that is on pace for a new career high.
Extending Wheeler helped the Phillies keep their rotation cornerstone in place through now what looks to be the rest of his career, and the team has already made some preparations for the post-Wheeler era. Cristopher Sanchez was inked to an extension that (if club options are exercised) could run through 2030. Nola was re-signed to a new contract during the 2023-24 offseason, though Nola has been quite shaky this year. Younger pitchers like Andrew Painter and Mick Abel are viewed as the future of the rotation, plus it seems likely that the Phils will keep spending big, so a future free agent splash to add pitching is certainly possible down the road.
Not a Superstar.
~Fred Wilpon
He wasn’t a superstar with the Mets.
Letting Wheeler walk (and right into the arms of the Phillies no less) was probably a top 5 mistake in the franchise’s entire history and that’s a history littered with big mistakes.
🙏🏻
Dykstra for Juan Samuel
And Roger McDowell. If you’re going to knock the Mets making bad trades, show how terrible the deal really was. The Mets didn’t trade Wheeler, they just let him know what they saw of him. Which was a 3 guy at best. Nobody saw Wheeler doing this and good for him. He has completely changed how he pitched early in his career with the Mets.
It doesn’t matter if ppl “saw” a future perennial Cy Young contender or not, everyone was well aware that he was very good and it was criminal to let him go into the waiting arms of the Phillies (or anyone) for nothing.
They weren’t getting anything is the whole point dude. He was a free agent. There was no Juan Samuel to be had.
And Wilpon wasn’t a superstar owner. Just ask Bernie Madoff….. Saul Katz’s financial advisor.
That, and conspiring with that Used Car Salesman Commisioner ruined the Mets franchise.
No, but he was really good that last year and showed signs of the pitcher he is today. Wilpon’s should have known he would be a good value even for those cheapskates
The REAL problem (for the Giants) in the Wheeler/Beltran deal was that the Giants didn’t try to re-sign Beltran over the winter, after which he went on to have many, many excellent seasons. A major front office mistake given that Wheeler was already highly touted.
Calling Wheeler, a Hall of Famer is a bit of a stretch.
That’s not what the article implies. It says that some HoF voters might consider Wheeler. Not a guarantee.
He was an extremely late bloomer, but if he can pitch well until he is 40 then I think that would be enough
Retiring at 37 might be just not enough and put him into the johan Santana type of hall of very good
2 all star appearances and less than 2k strkeouts.
He’s not even close to the hall of fame.
Today, no. He’ll easily eclipse 2K with current course and speed potentially placing him at about 50 bWAR. The Hall voting standards for starting pitchers is likely about to change, recognizing the value of starters while reducing the innings pitched to gain entry. Wheeler is viewed as one of the top starters over the six years, and that will carry weight if he can continue that another couple seasons.
He’s not there yet, but he’s likely closer than some believe. If he’s still near peak in 2027, he should stick another two of three seasons to pad the numbers. Being a HOFer is worth a lot in money and legacy.
He’ll easily get to at least 2000 K’s. He only needs 274 more, regularly strikesout over 200 batters a season, and is putting up the highest K% of his career this season. The way he’s going, he’ll probably end up with closer to 2500 and about 50 WAR if he decides to hang them up after 2027.
He got off to a good start to his career in 2013 and 2014, but then missed all of 2015 and 2016, and struggled badly in less than 100 IP in 2017, and didn’t truly have a big breakout until 2018. Though since 2018, he has the most bWAR, most IP, is third in FIP, sixth in WHIP, and top ten in both ERA and ERA+. Gotta be one of the best stretches a pitcher has had without winning a Cy Young.
Tell that to Nolan Ryan mlb 😉
Only in a sense that he didn’t have a super long career, but the bulk of his career so far has been more than very good
I wonder if voters would account for him missing nearly 4 seasons. Because since 2018, he’s arguably been a top five pitcher in the sport. Being a top five pitcher for the better part of a decade’s worth of seasons should defintiley get him some consideration.
He’ll get some downvotes when the time comes. There’s a lack of bold numbers/peak on his bref page and his K rate isn’t particular strong.
He’s no where close to Santana. Wheeler has never once been the best pitcher in his league. Santana was best in MLB for multiple seasons.
He’s closer than you think with 2.5 seasons left. A World Series championship would help.
I’ve always liked Wheeler but he’s not close at all even with 2.5 more years of stellar pitching. He’ll need at least a CYA and a WS ring to even raise a discussion.
baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_P.shtml
The average JAWS of HOF pitchers is 61.3. Wheelers JAW is currently at 35.6 with no hardware. He’s now right along side with David Price.
JAWS is a good reference point, yet it’s interesting that Cole Hamels has a borderline case but Wheeler is the more “I’m watching a HOFer” pitcher. He certainly passes the eye test.
There are several players in the Hall for being the best, say, hitter for average for a decade or longer. Wheeler, especially if he finishes at his current level, has been among the consistently best pitchers in either league for a decade. Guys like DeGrom, Cole and others had higher peaks, but couldn’t maintain them. Like I said, he’s closer than you might think.
I might vote for him, but I’m a Mets fan and I know I’m a little biased.
Gonna use this to start a discussion. Is DeGrom back in HOF territory?
I sure hope he changes his mind if he’s still pitching like he is now. Dude’s been a monster since going to Philly.
Basically this is rehashed news, as he kinda’ said this when he signed the extension deal.
As a Phils fan, I hope that he reconsiders if he is still healthy and pitching at a high level. But I would also be happy for him if he simply does as he states and retires at the top of his game. Not many ever manage that one.
Then again, in three years his wife might request that he stick it out for another couple of seasons, as she is used to him being away for over half of the year. Absence can keep a marriage sane…
From what’s been reported about Wheeler, I’d find it unlikely he changes his mind. He chose Philly for less money because of family reasons. He chose to stay without even considering testing the market—where he would have gotten a lot more money—because he didn’t want to leave. Unless they fall just short—losing in the WS his last year, and they haven’t won one yet—it would be surprising if he is pitching in 2028. And more power to him. Great pitcher, great career, made a ton of money. All of that was great but time with your family is way more important.
My friends all gave me so much crap when I said I thought Wheeler would have a better career that crazy man Matt Harvey.
There were people who thought signing Mad Bum was a better deal than Wheeler to Philly.
Mad Bum helped Giants to 3 WS basically held pitching staff single handedly in 2014.
ironically, Wheeler and Bum are same age.
If he’s a cy young candidate in 2027 then I’d be surprised if he still retires
Why? He has plenty of money, plenty of success and doesn’t live only for baseball. He should go out on top and spend more time with his young children and wife while he can if he is fortunate enough to be able to do so. Pretty sure he can survive on the $100 million plus he has likely saved and invested.
Because if he’s still elite or even a high-end starter and a team is willing to offer him $20-30 million a year to pitch for another year, that’s hard to pass up. Yes, he’s got generational money, but once he hangs it up, no one will ever offer him that amount of cash to do anything ever again.
I look at someone like Charlie Morton, who’s collected an extra $15-20 million the last 5 years. Could’ve retired at any point but if the check is good…
You can’t go back and buy time with your kids once you miss that time.
Happy Father’s Day to whom this applies.
Some people value their time and their family more than money. It seems Wheeler is one of those.
It was a century ago & the tm is doing fine now but mets fans still miss him & wish he woulda remained in queens
Crickets
Thank goodness. I will start counting the days as a Braves fan. lol But really, he is a beast. If he is still elite during that season, the Phillies may make him rethink retirement. Always enjoy watching him and Strider, or him and Sale go head to head. Always must-watch TV.
At least for Giants, Beltran hit well for 2 months in lieu of possible future HOF
Beltran was injured for a chunk of his time , making the trade even worse.
The Giants ended up winning 2 more World Series rings after that trade for consolation.
I see everyone talking about how the Mets messed up letting him walk but how about the Giants trading him to the Mets for half a season of Beltran? The Nathan for Pierzynski trade and the Reynolds for Cutch trade were bad and I still think Wheeler for Beltran is the Giants worst trade in the past 30 years
Yeah I thought it was a steal at the time. But letting him walk in FA to the Phillies of all teams was an absolute fumble. Imagine him at the top of that pitching staff this year
Castillo hurts too.
The Giants won 2 World Series rings after the Beltran-Wheeler trade, plus, Buster Posey was injured and the Giants needed an extra bat.
Oh I never said it set the Giants back but Beltran had zero to do with the 2012 and 2014 rings
I know why they made the deal. Beltran was gone after that season anyway so it had zero impact on their 2 championships. I do recall the Rangers being in on the trade at the time as well
Good on him. Excellent priorities. Chasing HOF or being present as a Dad ? Easy call.
As a lifelong Mets fan, I admire Zack for his hard work and how it resulted in him becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball. I thought that trade of him for Beltran was an absolute steal. Just too bad they let him walk. You could see flashes of what he ended up becoming when he was in Queens, but the Wilpons were a joke. Maybe this announcement helps their morale and makes them try to push for a trophy even harder. Either way, I wish Zack all but the best (except against us) 😉
Pretty much the modern ballplayer – make their money and get out, especially if they still have good health.
Wasn’t one of the big reasons he came to the Phillies was because of family? Wouldn’t be shocking to see him walk away to go relax, he deserves it!
No almost brewer mention? Through the trade tree, that deal falling through is Contreras now.
All these guys are overpaid. He can go now for all I care
Don’t hate the player. Hate the game.
You’re going to have to wait until after the 2027 season, Comrade. Plus, he’s a major league baseball player, I don’t know about you, though.
Ironically, Walt Bellamy once hated how Pistol Pete Maravich had one of the largest salaries for a professional athlete at the time.
They are not overpaid. You are worth whatever someone wants to pay for you.
There will be no baseball in 2027 so it is actually after 2026. Next year will be his final.
I’m taking all wagers that there will be BB in 2027. Everyone is making money.
Good for Wheeler. IMVHO, he’d miss the kids’ childhood more than a few extra million.
Man, I still remember franticly checking this site for updates on who Wheeler was going to sign with. It seemingly came down to the Phillies and my Chicago White Sox. I wanted him on the South Side so bad and all these years later, it’s a tough pill to swallow that all they had to do was beat Philadelphia’s relatively modest offer.
Of course, instead of Wheeler, the White Sox went out and got Dallas Keuchel. And we all know the rest.