The Astros and Marlins are discussing a trade that would send Sandy Alcantara to Houston, according to reporter Michael Schwab. “Both sides are serious and interested,” as per Schwab, but there isn’t any indication that a deal is close to happening. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale regards Houston’s interest in Alcantara as a bit of a pivot, as talks with the Padres about Dylan Cease “have cooled.”
Alcantara missed the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery, and his return to action this year has been mixed at best. The right-hander has a 6.36 ERA over 109 innings, with lot of hard contact allowed and a 16.8% strikeout rate that would represent a career low. There have been a few flashes of vintage Alcantara, and his last two starts have seen the former NL Cy Young Award winner toss 12 innings with only a single unearned run allowed. Alcantara’s fastball is still averaging 97.5mph, which is down from the 98mph he averaged during the 2021-23 seasons, yet that isn’t an egregious drop considering the righty’s long layoff.
As perhaps the top premium trade chip the Marlins have left after their latest fire sale, Alcantara’s shaky performance represents a challenge for the front office. The Fish could simply wait until the offseason to try and re-visit trade talks, perhaps after Alcantara has posted better numbers in the final two months to boost his value. Or, the Marlins could trade Alcantara before tomorrow’s deadline if a rival team comes close to matching (or even matches) what was surely a high initial asking price for the hurler’s services.
Despite Alcantara’s struggles, the Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, and Padres remained linked to his trade market. San Diego’s interest is related to the Cease talks, as the speculation has been that the Padres could both deal Cease (an impending free agent) to address multiple roster needs, while then adding another starting pitcher either as part of the return for Cease for in another deal altogether.
Cease was reportedly the Astros’ top deadline target, so this turn towards Alcantara could represent a number of things. It could be simply due diligence on Houston’s part, or a sign that the talks with San Diego are going nowhere because the Padres wish to retain Cease, or perhaps a sign that the Padres are more motivated to send Cease elsewhere.
Whereas Cease is a rental, Alcantara is controlled through the 2027 season. He is owed the remainder of his $17MM salary for 2025, $17MM more in 2026, and Miami has a $21MM club option for 2027 that contains a $2MM buyout. Adding Alcantara over Cease would be a whole new financial ballgame for the Astros, who made an effort to stay under the luxury tax threshold this past winter.
With the Mariners and Rangers charging hard in the AL West race, Astros owner Jim Crane may be willing to pay into the tax again in order to give his team some much-needed reinforcements. If the pre-TJ version of Alcantara emerges, his salary suddenly looks like a relative bargain for a frontline pitcher. Framber Valdez is also a free agent after the season, so the Astros could view Alcantara as a longer-term replacement if Valdez walks.
Cease was not going to Houston…
It never made sense
They will dream up another 2 or 3 Cease bait articles in the next 7 hours though, just to round out the year at an even 100 such articles
Brew…quite true! Hahaha
Big Risk. Big reward? So much talent. He looked good the other night. If he gets anywhere near his previous performance, he will be a big addition.
I’d say very little risk. Hou doesn’t have a sure fire top heavy prospect to loose and most elite pitchers regain form the second year after recovering from tj. Great savvy grab by hou if they work it out !
Houston doesn’t have what the Padres are looking for. They need a Right-handed OF bat and a catcher.
Chas McCormick & Walker Janek. McCormick had an elite ‘23, but needs consistent PT to thrive as he’s struggled with injuries & inconsistent ABs since. Think he’d do well with everyday ABs in LF in SD. Janek is a high floor catcher, who should arrive to the big leagues sooner than Ethan Salas. Zach Dezenzo could be another RH OFer included in the deal, he’s on the shelf right now…but he has massive power & has shown some good things in limited MLB action.
I’d expect SD to want a C more mlb-ready than Janek, ’24 1st round pick. I could see any of Diaz, Caratini, McCormick, Meyers, Dezenzo getting packaged.
Alternately I could see SD try to attach an undesirable contract like Cronenworth if they aren’t getting the return they’d like on Cease alone.
Cronenworth isn’t undesirable.
He’s a league average bat playing good defense at 2B. Trading him just creates another unnecessary hole they’d have to fill. Hes hardly the problem
Catcher, DH, LF. Though Padres could obtain a LF and move Sheets back to DH solving two issues with one move
Only way Padres deal Cease and/or
Suarez is if they can get a replacement for Cease and Suarez, a LF, and a C
Really the best destination for Cease is the Cubs who could send back Jonathan Long LF, Brandon Birdsell RHSP, Pedro Ramirez (3B/2B/ UTL), and RHSP Connor Noland.
Long steps into LF immediately, Noland replaces Cease in the rotation, Ramirez can replace Wade as a LH super utility player next year, and get a rotation option for next year in Birdsell. Their 6th, 7th, 9th, and 23rd prospects that come with a 50, 45, 45, 40 ranking.
That all makes sense. I just don’t think Houston wants to part with either Caratini or Diaz at catcher at this point in time. Caratini is too important to the overall fabric of the team as the leader of the pitching staff/game caller, plus he’s clutch, and puts together consistent professional ABs as a switch hitter. Diaz still has elite offensive upside…although he’s a subpar defensive catcher, chases too much offensively, and hits the ball on the ground too much…but he’s got elite bat to ball skills & makes LOUD contact. Janek would probably be the best Houston could offer at catcher unfortunately right now…but you could get back some solid OF pieces with a catcher of the future type. Catchers are always valuable to have in a system, even if you already do have Ethan Salas.
Astros aren’t giving up Meyers or Yainer Diaz for a rental. That’s silly.
I wouldn’t mind an indirect Cease for Alcantara swap. An extra 2 years of control is tantalizing, but I know I’m higher on Alcantara than most. Maybe he could be had in the offseason, too.
His WHIP is pretty good
So let me get this straight… Houston is going to trade for at least 37 starting pitchers in the next 15 hours, if I’m to believe this site.
Yes, exactly. 37. This sounds like a scene from the movie Clerks. Or perhaps you like prime numbers.
They are called rumors for a reason. All you should take from this is the Astros are very active in the starting pitching market. Particularly someone who would be a solid #3 in the rotation even when the IL brigade returns.
The Alcantara situation is a stark example of how MLB rivals have to collaborate to make trades happen. To the extent both teams want to get to a position of “win/win” trades can work. But when one or both teams are attempting to create a win for themselves and a loss for their potential trading partner then they simply will not work. The Marlins made it clear to the market that “we want to stick it to any team that wants Alcantara.” Instead their position should have been “we simply want fair value for Alcantara “.
Miami is just insecure due to their shotty trade history lol. He has 2+ years of control left and he still has elite stuff. His stock will only rise so why not ask for a substantial return ?
Hou should be more than willing to deal 2/3 of their top prospects for him ! Text book Hou move
Well Marlins can deal him now as is given his recent production or they can’t wait hope he improves and deal him then with less team control and less value.
Statyllus. On which Alcantara do you base your valuation.?
His last 2 starts could have been lifted from his 2022 Cy Young season. The 5 innings from a day when he didn’t quite have everything working so focused on what did and the 7 innings of vintage Sandy that gave up one unearned run by giving an extra out to a good team.
The 3 starts before that Sandy gave up 15 runs in 17 innings. 14 of those innings he gave up a couple of runs and showed us the Sandy of old was still in there. One inning per game, his fastball command was off, his velocity was down a smidge.and he got tattooed.
While there are no guarantees in baseball, I would be very happy if Bendix waits until the off season when Sandy’s value will probably be much higher.
Houston has $40M+ coming off the books in 2026 in the form of Abreu, Montero, and Pressly.
In the offseason they could easily offer Framber a QO and try to negotiate an extension or pivot to Cease without going over the tax or giving up whatever prospect capital they have left.
That sets them up to still keep a front end starter plus draft compensation should Framber sign elsewhere.
It’s much less of a gamble to roll the dice on their arms coming back off the IL while also bringing in a low cost back end starter* if one of Javier, Garcia, or LMJ doesn’t step up during the stretch run.
*bonus nostalgia points if they run out a Charlie Morton tandem.