TODAY: Cease is the Astros’ “main target,” a source tells MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.
JULY 29: The Astros have Padres right-hander Dylan Cease atop their deadline wish list, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Houston is also known to be looking for a bat and the report lists Willi Castro of the Twins, Jesús Sánchez of the Marlins and Jake McCarthy of the Diamondbacks as names the Astros are considering. MLBTR covered Houston’s interested in Castro earlier this week.
The Houston rotation has had a rough go in terms of health this year. They started the season with Luis Garcia, J.P. France and Cristian Javier on the injured list due to surgeries in previous years. They’re all still on the shelf. Since the start of the season, Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski have required Tommy John surgery, putting them out for the rest of the year. Spencer Arrighetti suffered a fractured thumb in a freak accident, getting hit during batting practice, and has been out for almost three months now. In the past two weeks, Lance McCullers Jr. hit the IL with a blister and Brandon Walter was sidelined by elbow inflammation.
They still have a strong one-two punch atop the rotation with Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown but things get dicey after that. Currently, Colton Gordon, Ryan Gusto and Jason Alexander are filling in. The Astros will naturally want to add some arms and push those guys down the depth chart. It’s possible they could get some guys off the IL in the coming months, but it’s understandable that they don’t want to rely on that.
Cease has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the game. Since getting promoted in 2019, he hasn’t gone on the injured list, apart from a two-day stint on the COVID list in 2021. He made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season. He has made at least 32 starts in each full season since. He’s already up to 22 this year.
That reliability would certainly be attractive to the Astros amid all the injuries, though the quality has often been quite strong as well, as Cease has regularly struck out roughly 30% of batters faced. His earned run average has oscillated over the years thanks to some wobbles in his batting average on balls in play, strand rate and home run rate. His advanced metrics have held more steady. For his career, he has a 3.69 FIP and 3.82. In a full season, he’s never had a SIERA higher than 4.10 or a FIP higher than 3.72.
This year’s 4.79 ERA in on the high side, though at least part of that seems to be beyond Cease’s control. His .323 BABIP, 68.5% strand rate and 13.3% homer to fly ball rate are all to the unfortunate side. His 3.64 FIP and 3.37 SIERA suggest he’s largely been the same guy as in previous seasons. His ERA is also inflated a bit by a nine-run shellacking in his third start of the year.
Though Cease makes plenty of sense for the Astros on the field, there are other matters to consider. He is making $13.75MM this year, which leaves about $4.5MM left to be paid out. The Astros have clearly tried to avoid the competitive balance tax this year, dumping money in the offseason by trading Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly. RosterResource currently pegs the club’s CBT number at $236MM, just $5MM from the base threshold of the tax. That’s just an estimate and it might be off by a few million in either direction.
Perhaps the Astros can add Cease and stay under the line but they also want to add a bat, which could make it tricky. On the other hand, the report from The Athletic suggests that owner Jim Crane likes star players and might be willing to cross the line in order to get someone like Cease. He was reportedly willing to cross the line in the offseason in order to re-sign Alex Bregman, though Bregman ultimately landed with the Red Sox.
The Astros will also have to offer the Padres something they would like. The Friars aren’t selling in the commonly understood sense. Their plan with dealing Cease is to perhaps save some money, add a left fielder or a catcher, or prospects, or some combination of those goals. They could then use either the prospects or the saved money to acquire another starting pitching to replace Cease.
Houston doesn’t have a strong farm system, so perhaps the prospect part will be hard for them to pull off, though they could help out in some of the other areas. Catcher Victor Caratini is having a good year, though Yainer Diaz is struggling, so perhaps the Astros wouldn’t want to part with Caratini. Though if they did, Caratini is making $6MM this year, so flipping him would give the Astros some extra CBT space.
In the outfield, the Astros are currently without Jake Meyers and Yordan Alvarez. Their current mix includes Cam Smith, Taylor Trammell, Jose Altuve, Jacob Melton, Cooper Hummel and Chas McCormick. Houston’s not giving a ton of playing time to McCormick, who has some decent seasons on his track record. However, he hasn’t been good for a couple of years now, so the Padres probably don’t have too much interest. Trammell has been hitting well lately but while striking out in more than 30% of his plate appearances. Hummel has been DFA fodder all year. Altuve and Smith aren’t going anywhere. Melton might be hard to pry loose because he hits left-handed, something the Astros lack, and is covering center field with Meyers out.
The report from The Athletic points out that the Astros traded three notable prospects to get a rental pitcher at last year’s deadline, flipping Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner to the Jays for Yusei Kikuchi. Perhaps they could do so again, though it’s unclear if they have the farm system to do it.
If they have some guys the Padres like, it’s theoretically possible that the Friars could then use those guys to upgrade elsewhere. A sequence of events like this helped them land Cease in the first place. They traded Juan Soto to the Yankees for a bunch of pitchers, including Michael King and Drew Thorpe. They then quickly put Thorpe in a package to send to the White Sox to get Cease. Perhaps the Astros can make it work but they will have competition. Cease has also been connected to the Mets, Cubs, Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees.
As for the hitters, the Astros have also suffered a number of injuries to the lineup. As mentioned, Alvarez and Meyers are on the shelf, as well as shortstop Jeremy Peña, third baseman Isaac Paredes and others. Astros general manager Dana Brown has said the club would love to get a lefty bat, ideally one who could play the infield and/or left field. Players like Altuve, Mauricio Dubón and Zack Short have some defensive versatility, giving the Astros a bit of flexibility in what kind of bat they add.
Sánchez has been a roughly league average bat in his time with the Marlins. He has a .243/.310/.425 career batting line and a wRC+ of exactly 100. He is making $4.5MM this year, which leaves about $1.5MM left to be paid out. He can be controlled via arbitration for another two seasons. He’s been far better against righties in his career, which could appeal to Houston. He has a .179/.228/.287 slash against southpaws but a .258/.330/.459 line otherwise. The rebuilding Marlins likely aren’t clinging too tightly to him.
McCarthy has been good in the past but not this year. He slashed .285/.349/.400 for a 110 wRC+ in 2024, also adding 25 steals and quality defense. This year, he has a brutal .158/.232/.277 line and was sent to the minors for a few months. He did hit well in Triple-A, slashing .314/.401/.440, so perhaps the Astros see a path to getting him back on track. He still hasn’t qualified for arbitration and is being paid around the league minimum, which would be attractive for the Astros.
Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images
But do they have what it will take to get him?
That’s where my head’s at, Holee one… I don’t think the two clubs line up well for a swap.
Agreed Gwynning. Seems the Astros don’t have much left to deal. They’d need to get another team or two involved in my opinion.
Every single team can trade for Cease. It’s going to cost a couple of 45fv type prospects. Astros have 15 of them.
Padres will then flip those prospects for players they want.
I don’t know if its that simple. It would be a lot easier to fill their holes in the time remaining if they could at least get some MLB return for Cease + a prospect.
There’s 47 hours left here and I know AJ is a madman, but when he flipped Thorpe for Cease, there were like 3 months in between acquiring Thorpe and shipping him out. It’s a tall order to acquire these prospects and instantly ship them out, but maybe Preller is lining up something like that
I don’t see that happening.
Teams buying usually aren’t trading at the same time like the padres would be doing in this case.
So you trade for prospects then flip them or just keep them and trade your other pieces for mlb guys. The padres don’t need that many players.
Quick! Name 1 team that has sold at the deadline and made it to the World Series that year!
Not selling, it’s buying and selling.
Padres will only trade cease for a big offer. As reported today the asking price is extremely high
Rays in 2020 is probably the closest, but that is a fluky year. Sold off Jose Martinez, but they did also buy Brett Phillips. The Rays also have other years where they did both buying and selling and made playoff runs without getting to the WS.
Kind of depends on what you consider selling. Like is trading your closer for an OF a “sell”. The Astros traded Octavio Dotel for Carlos Beltran like 20 years ago and I would consider that both buying and selling.
Simm. multiple outlets including Lin have said the Padres are not willing to lower their offseason price for Cease and are reportedly asking for major league players, plural, for him. Preller is loading up for a playoff run, not taking on prospects.
What was reported today was that the price was multiple major league players, not prospects.
What team “going for it” would give multiple major league assets from their 26 man roster for Cease ? Ostensibly those major league assets would be very much needed by the team acquiring Cease. That team would be shooting themselves in the foot to add Cease. I guess it would have to be a cost/benefit analysis of some sort that makes sense to them. Not sure if such a team exists. Likewise saying any two random 45 graded prospects would cinch the deal for Cease makes even less sense. And then Preller would magically find the right suitor for those two 45 prospects in order to fill his own needs on the major league roster??? That is living in fantasy land folks.
SOB, the Padres are going for it. To get Cease the team is going to have to give up something that benefits the Padres this season, too. That means MLB level players at positions of need. If a team is going to trade for Cease they will have to value starting pitching more than they do a RHB or catcher on their major league roster or both.
Simm
Every single team can trade for Cease.
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I’d say this is maybe the #1 thing that is universally overlooked. Except for the superstars, every team has enough prospects to trade for anyone. Whether a team with a weak farm wants to give up a #100 + a #125 is a different question.
But every team can afford most players.
Joe- especially a rental that’s not having a great season.
Now that doesn’t mean a team is willing to meet the Padres asking price which is said to be extremely high.
I mentioned a couple of 45fv type prospects for him. That doesn’t mean that’s what the padres would trade him for. That also doesn’t mean that’s he is worth a lot more than that.
Gut says they will keep him because nobody will meet their asking price.
Despite the last two games against the Mets, gotta believe Caratini would be quite an upgrade vs what the Pads have behind the plate. He might make the most sense for SD if Cease goes to HOU. Of course, it would never be a 1-1 trade so Preller would look for a tradable prospect as well.
Maybe he could fix darvish
Why would you fix 2 hits in 7 innings shutting out the Mets?
That was before today when that was posted. Darvish fixed himself. Lowered his arm angle back to his beginning days. Seems to have worked
It’s reasonable to expect him to take a few games to get back into form. One of the best SP performances of the Padres season. Bodes well.
Actually pitch count wise it was darvish’s lowest 7 complete innings in his career
The padres will give cease plus more away just for a team to take him at this point.
Wrong
Not true at all; he won’t be moved for anything less than a comprehensive swap.
Cease for Happ if latter waived his NTC (probably wouldn’t). Need for need vets.
It’s more of the fans being upset with his performance. He still gets a lot of Ks but has been giving up a big fly almost every time out there.
That said I don’t think Preller would be in any hurry to give him away. If they don’t get the deal they want they will keep him and put a QO on him to get a free draft pick (something Preller loves).
James- I agree that definitely an option. Think it comes down to the return vs whatever else preller has planned.
Nope!
Would the Astros settle for a Chad Green?
I doubt the Adtros are in the mix…
It will be hard for me to believe the Padres are entertaining Cease offers until a deal comes through. It seems completely against Preller’s reigning MO, but I suppose payroll/farm challenges could make it happen. It’s putting a lot of faith in King and Darvish. I’m not entirely against leveraging a strength to address the roster elsewhere, but it seems far-fetched.
Depends who you get.
Astros have some arms who are ready to be called up
Michael Ullola has 3.52 era in 18 starts in AAA
Jose Fleury had a 1.82 era in 10 starts in AA has scuffed a bit in AAA but he’s 23
Alimber Santa has a 1.26 era in 31 games in AA as a reliever
Pedro Leon is an OF that’s just mashed last 2 years
Zach Cole is an OF that’s hit well in AA this year
You could certainly build a quantity package where Ullola could replace Cease, Santa could step in to fill a void if we deal Suarez and move Adams up to 9th Estrada to 8th.
Plus pick up an MLB ready OF in Leon who we ar worst platoon.
Plus if you deal Suarez you also look at filling more rotation and c.
Yankees make sense. Suarez for Schlitter. Escarra, and Jesus Rodriguez who’s hitting well in AAA could be put at 1B.
Ullola and Leon aren’t nothing (Leon especially for the Padres considering their dearth of impact position prospects in the high minors), but I want present-day value for trading Cease. Otherwise, just hold him and get the draft pick comp when he walks.
Especially with King saying he is ready to return.
It’s good news and while that theoretically makes Cease more redundant, I want a four-deep playoff rotation (I think Darvish can turn it around, but man it’s been ugly so far). Even with his struggles Cease is still a threat to give you double digit strikeouts over six.. I’d just pocket that unless there’s an obvious buy-low pitching candidate and you’re getting a starting LF/C for Cease
Darvish was carving today. But I agree I want four-deep SPs for playoffs and 5-6 deep August-Sept
It doesn’t sound like the teams match up very well for a trade. Maybe a three way trade could work.
Cease has been on my wishlist for the Astros for a long time now. Let’s hope they can pull this off.
Cease will cost more than Kikichi did last year.
Someone block that!!! They can not be allowed to make another Cole
Love this! But consider this…They will of course, then let him walk. Maybe to your team…Just like Cole.
It’s impressive that the Astros have been as good as they have with the massive amount of injuries they’ve dealt with.
But nerve wracking!
I want Cease traded. Who can the Padres get from the Astros.
Cease for Ullola, Fleury, Leon, Cole, Santa
If Cease ends up in Houston, with this bullpen, the Astros rule the AL
Why would the padres trade him when they would be in the playoffs if the season ended today?
I came in to post the same thing. If a team with playoff aspirations, and an outside chance of catching the LAD, then why would they trade Cease, unless they have no confidence in him.
This is the same in real life. If someone is offering you a deal that makes no sense, then there is usually a reason you are unaware of.
And if Cease is so expendable, why do all the contenders want him?
If the Pads need a RH bat, then just get one on the cheap by dealing mid or low level prospects. Trading Cease would only make sense if team were suffering deep financial woes ( which we were told don’t exist)
I can see this as like a 3 team trade. Padres need LF help BADLY. Unfortunately, they don’t have the prospect capital to get the 2 players that would help them the most (Robert & Duran). What they do have is pitching they can dangle. So they trade Cease for a couple prospects, trade Suarez for a couple of prospects, use some combo of those prospects + their own to get Robert, etc.
Padres do not need a LF badly. Sheets has been solid there both hitting and on defense. The Padres need a RHB with power. A catcher or DH would be just fine if an OF is not available in trade.
Suarez is almost untradeable because of the structure of his contract. Preller has said he will be looking to not only add bats at the deadline, he will be looking to strengthen the bullpen. Moving Suarez would not strengthen the pen.
Suarez would be trade-able if looked at as a 2025 rental, with expectation he opts out.
Darragh, you left the most important consideration out of this article. What do the Padres want in return.
The Padres are reportedly asking for major league players, plural, in return for Cease and have not come down on their asking price since the offseason.
What members of the Astros major league squad are they willing to give up to get Cease?
They can ask, but not likely to get.
Every pitcher and injury recovery is different, of course, but the Cubs have to be impressed with the way Cleveland’s medical staff rehabilitated Boyd. I can see why they would be interested in Bieber.
My only thought for this is that there’s another team who wants what the Astros have, and they have what the Padres want