It is no secret that the Phillies are looking to bolster their relief corps before the trade deadline, and to that end, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that the Phils have asked the Pirates about relievers Dennis Santana and David Bednar. Santana has been of interest to Philadelphia “for quite some time,” Hiles writes, though Bednar’s recent strong play has also gotten him onto the NL East team’s radar. Andrew Fillipponi of 93.7 The Fan radio first mentioned the Phillies’ interest in Santana and Bednar last week, and noted that Philadelphia could look to acquire both relievers in a single trade.
MLBTR’s ranking of the top 40 trade deadline candidates features Bednar (3rd) and Santana (9th) both in prominent positions, speaking to both their impressive performances in 2025, the likelihood that the Pirates will indeed be deadline sellers, and the simple fact that basically every contender could use some bullpen help. The two right-handers are both scheduled to enter free agency after the 2026 season, so that extra year of arbitration control figures to up the Pirates’ asking price for either pitcher.
Santana’s rise from journeyman reliever to bullpen ace has been remarkable, as it was barely over a year ago that the Bucs claimed Santana off waivers from the Yankees in a transaction that drew little notice. After posting uninspiring numbers with four teams over parts of seven MLB seasons, Santana suddenly blossomed in Pittsburgh, with a 1.99 ERA, 25.16% strikeout rate, and 5.8% walk rate in 81 1/3 innings in a Pirates uniform. Santana has certainly been aided by a .206 BABIP this season since his 3.52 SIERA is over two runs higher than his 1.46 ERA, but Santana’s underlying metrics (particularly his walk rate and elite hard-contact rate) indicate that his success is no fluke.
Santana has mostly worked in a set-up role but briefly served as Pittsburgh’s closer when Bednar was optioned to Triple-A at the start of April. Between his struggles in 2024 and his early stumbles this year, Bednar looked miles removed from his past All-Star form, yet his brief stint in the minors got his career back on track. Bednar has a sparkling 1.88 ERA over the 28 2/3 innings since his recall, and his 34.7% strikeout rate is one of the best in baseball. On the other end of the batted-ball coin, Bednar had achieved this success despite a .343 BABIP, and his 2.27 SIERA is even lower than his full-season 2.73 ERA.
Either Bednar or Santana would be obvious upgrades for a Phillies team that ranks 24th of 30 teams in bullpen ERA (4.41). Closer Jordan Romano has somewhat righted the ship after some major early-season struggles but isn’t the most reliable of late-inning options, while Jose Alvarado won’t be back from his 80-game PED suspension until August (and of course Alvarado isn’t eligible for postseason play). Since Philadelphia has one of the sport’s best rotations and the lineup is still as dangerous as ever, a sturdier bullpen may be the final piece the Phillies need to finally break through for the club’s first World Series title since 2008.
Considering how the bullpen has been a constant target area for a few years now, landing controllable relievers like Santana or Bednar would help the Phillies address the issue beyond just this season. Last season’s deadline saw the Phillies acquire impending free agent Carlos Estevez to strengthen the pen, yet after Estevez left to sign with the Royals, Philadelphia was somewhat left back at square one.
Bednar is the pricier of the two pitchers, as he is set to earn the remainder of his $5.9MM salary in 2025 before earning a raise in his final arb year. Santana lost an arbitration hearing to the Pirates in February and thus earned a $1.4MM salary for 2025, making him quite the bargain given his production. This lower price tag could be one of the reasons why the Phillies (and surely other teams) have particular interest in Santana’s services. Because the Phillies are projected to be over the highest luxury-tax tier and this is their fourth year as tax-payors, any adds will come at over double the financial cost, given the associated 110% tax rate.
I believe Jeff Hoffman was already a Philly going into last year and wasn’t acquired at the deadline. They got Tanner Banks at the deadline last year.
Jeff Hoffman was signed as a free agent by the Phillies in March 2023, so he wasn’t a 2024 deadline trade acquisition. Just sayin’.
If you need something go get it. Never understood why GM’s wait til July to start zeroing in on trade targets. I know all the arguments for waiting and I disagree. S-+- or get off the pot. A GM should have a plan for the now and for the future
@BigV – It has nothing to do with having a plan, or “potluck”. It is simply the nature of the beast. There are fewer sellers this early, and those with assets will overprice them in a big way.
At the deadline however, there is more product out there as teams have made their decisions to buy / sell / hold, and the pressure moves back to equilibrium as the sellers know that if they don’t sell the player now they may get nothing. Human nature and supply and demand.
Human Nature says it all I suppose. It’s frustrating like the MLB off season drags on forever it seems
Sad, very annoying, but true. The Phillies have been in need of a late inning arm since the necklace maker got busted. But finding the right trade partner hasn’t happened.
Sellers will usually put an unrealistic high price on decent players this early until deadline forces multiple legit offers from those who belatedly decide they are buyers…..unless seller receives somewhat close offer in lieu of amateurish insulting lowball attempts.
I think it has more to do with the teams that are selling rather than those that are buying. If you have an asset that the industry sees as valuable (relief pitching), unless a team blows you away with an offer, it’d make more sense to hold onto it and let them get in a bidding war later. I’m sure if the Phillies offered the Pirates Andrew Painter in May, both Santana and Bednar would be wearing Phillies uniforms.
What do the Phils have to offer in return? Pirates will want major league ready hitters,
They have a plethora of young outfielders, for one. I doubt very seriously if the Pirates are looking at “major league ready” before being a solid prospect. This team isn’t just a player or two away from contending.
Which NL team has given up the fewest runs/gm?
One that’s two hitters away from contending.
The same team that’s at or near the bottom in runs scored, batting averages, having been shut out and strikeouts. Two hitters away, you say?
You only have to be below average when you give up the fewest runs.
How’s that offense going in the last month? Did you check?
Two league average hitters is enough.
Rose colored glasses are fine, but if you’ve watched for any amount of time you realize how bad this team is in so many ways. Basic fundamentals are one thing—and inexcusable at this level—but the approach of hitters here, plate discipline, pitch recognition, situational understanding, is in a category by itself.
But ok. A few wins strung together always brings out the optimists. 70 wins this year. At best. And rankings among the worst in every conceivable category
But hey, they’re a player or two away
This team will perpetually be two years away from being two years away
Veal-With all due respect,you may be almost correct,but they would need two very good hitters,and both with good power.
They may be able to get that from unproven almost ML players but they would have to trade significant pitching to do so.
Old timer..you are wrong..the pirates want major league ready players..nothing end prospects who might be a year ot 2 away
If they ask for Crawford then the phillies will say no. Crawford will be either playing CF or LF for the phillies after the trade deadline.
Then they don’t get Bednar.
Buuba, you may be right. I guess it comes down to the definition of “major league ready”
The Pirates have nothing coming up through the farm other than Griffin, and he’s a couple years away. So who knows what the definition is
The last couple of days, the PG has published articles about the Pirates at the trade deadline. They’ve done a deep dive with MLB scouts about what they’re hearing. Essentially, teams are interested in Keller, Bednar, Santana, Hayes, Reynolds and Cruz, and Cherington is listening. To me at least, if that’s true it dispels the idea of being “a couple players away” and suggests yet another rebuild
Who knows? Its a revolving door here
Which is fine but Santana improves the Phillies bullpen probably for the least amount talent to give up.
Now if the Phillies were offered a good righty bat and a closer the caliber of Duran from Minn or Clase from Cle then one would have to consider giving Crawford up. But a Santana and Bednar package get no more than a Rojas or Marsh and any prospect outside of the top ten in the farm system.
Yes – a Duran makes one really think about how to get a deal done, with 2.5 years of control and if things go well he locks down the closer spot. Bednar and Santana, while certainly improvements, don’t allow for a high level of comfort given the spotty histories. Bednar can be really good but was lousy last season and sent to the minors early this season…in essence, typical up and down reliever profile.
Crawford is a good AAA hitter but that does not always translate to the ML’s.
He also has little power which is not awful for a CF but does not provide much more than the Phillies have now.
The Pirates need Ml ready power hitters.
Old Timer-The bigger question is whether Nutting trusts Cherington to trade those players.
He does not have a good track record on major trades.
And if Nutting has decided to fire him i doubt that the trades will get done.
This year was absolutely ruined by keeping Shelton.
That is on Cherington.
bell-You clearly have no idea as to the value of Phillies nor Pirates players.
Carver-Bednar is clearly one of the top ten closers in the ML’s.
The Phillies need him very badly.
The Red Sox would too.
@Mendoza – Potato, potahto. At his best, you are correct. I choose not to forget the fact that he was approaching DFA status last season and sent to the minors to get straightened out this season. Nor do I forget the iffy nature of pen arms and closers in general, not named Mariano or Trevor Hoffman.
I am not DD – what the Phils choose to do is up to them. But I have never been a fan of overpaying via trade or long term deal for bullpen pieces, and never will be.
That is a philosophy shared by many.
To some Pirates fans Bednar is just another pitcher who should have been traded two years ago when his stock was highest.
What many fans do not understand though is that the closer is one of the top five most important positions on the team.
There is a certain mentality that the good ones have and otherwise good pitchers often do not have.
There is nothing worse than blowing the game in the ninth inning.It deflates a team over time.
The Pirates were smart enough to option him early in the year and since then he has been fine.
If you are a Phillies fan you know that bold moves need to be made as the window is closing.The owner wants a championship.
In all honesty though this is hopefully a moot point because the Phillies do not have the young power hitters that the Pirates need.
Mendoza, you said a long time ago that you don’t think Nutting really cares. I agreed then and say that’s still the case. Dream called him a financial Hall of Famer and I think that’s not only true, but his only real focus. Everything else is ancillary
Nutting did an interview with the PG’s Mackey a couple days ago. He was asked point blank why he still owns the team, to which he answered ‘ to build a winning, championship-level team and to change the dynamics of MLB’s financial structure.’ In fact, with regards to the latter, he wishes to be the leader in an effort to change things
In a nutshell, I think Nutting is a genius with money. I think he knows how to spew good PR sound bites. But I don’t think baseball success is a priority. And down from there, I think Cherington is out of his depth in his job
Once again you mis interpreted what I said.
I have been consistent in saying that Nutting is a businessman first and foremost.
Businessmen care about money first and foremost or otherwise they would go out of business.
He made a great investment by buying low on the Pirates.
I think that his father was probably the great businessman.
I think that Nutting does care about having a winning team.
What he is is a realist in the present state of MLB where one small market team has won the WS in the last 34 years.
History generally begets the present or else the computer nerds would not have jobs using data to predict future baseball performance.
Nutting had an increased payroll of 35-40% during the peak years in the middle of the last decade.The amount was $30-40M per year.
What he does not want to do is spend money to win 5-10 more games when he has a bad to below mediocre team.
In the immortal words of Rickey Waters,” for who,for what”!
You and I know that small market teams need good coaching,managing,and a good development system,which they have not had for hitters.
I have said all along that his biggest weakness is that he does not know baseball and relies too much on someone who has turned out to be at best a mediocre General Manager.
He has to be stymied that they are as bad as they have been under Cherington,and was too divorced from reality to fire Shelton two years ago on his own.
It shows that Nutting is out of touch thinking that he can go against MLB and the big market mega money let alone the Players Union.He may be for the little guy,but winning against them is not an option.
Quite frankly,how many big time free agents are worth the money anyway?Usually they are the youngest to achieve free agency.And Nutting is competing against billionaires who are willing to use their own money to win championships.
Nutting wants to take home his $50M every year,and hopes that his team is getting better by having young and cheap players who do.
Until he gets a first class GM( which AI (nee Dream) GM)does not think very plausible,the Pirates,like you have said,are probably doomed to mediocrity at best.
Old timer…I’ve been saying for awhile now that skenes isn’t going anywhere via trade.
But after watching moron 2 pull him after 5 innings 10 ks and a scoreless game. He threw 78 pitches. Moron Kelly said he pulled skenes to preserve him. PRESERVE HIM FROM WHAT. The kid is a once in a lifetime pitcher. He’s built like a tight end.
Moron 2 has one of the best,if not the best, pitching staffs in baseball. Moron 2 doesn’t know how to manage it.
If I were skenes. I’d be pounding on nutting door demanding to be traded. As much as I think this guy is going to be one of the all time greats, it won’t be here. Not with the current MORON manager and general manager and front office. They don’t have a clue.
Some national baseball writers ,just last week, said Kelly should be manager of the year. I almost choked. Local media and posters on here want him enshrined in the HOF. What a joke. He’s a joke like the clown he replaced. As long as these people are running the office…THE BUCCOS AINT GOING NOWHERE.
They need to hire an older experienced manager,coaching staff and GM.
Allow me to add, cheap major league hitters. Can’t see them getting value for either.
They won’t get that with Bednar or Santana. Both are relievers and will get a prospect like Carson DeMartani or Gabriel Rincones Jr
Lol
They don’t have to trade either.
Especially not for that garbage.
Rincones would look nice hitting balls over the Clemente wall
1981- Why give away two of their best pitchers and two of the best in the ML’s?
You won’t like my answer as a Phils fan. When it comes to the bullpen, there are very few bullpen arms that are worth a premium value in my ever so humble opinion. They are just too inconsistent from year to year and month to month to give up prospects from the top tier. Bednar and Santana are clear examples of those inconsistencies.
As a package or alone, they both have value for sure but I would not give away anything from the top 8 in the Phils system for any but the most elite of bullpen arms. There are some real talents just outside of that to choose from as a package and some fast risers that are making an impact now. Nori / Burkholder / DeMartini / Keaton / Spikerman…maybe even Otto Kemp for an already there guy.
As I Pirate fan I agree and disagree (ha). I believe in relievers value as you described, where I disagree (kind of) is in the expected trade return. It seems to me teams wanting top relievers (which this year both of these men qualify) tend to end up over paying vs. what I feel is the worth. I see no reason why the Pirates shouldn’t wait or demand the overpay since that precedent (IMO) has been repeatedly set in previous trade deadline reliever trades. Net: I would wait for a much better offer than the list you provided given reliever trade history.
@SouthernBuc – I certainly believe that the Bucs should wait for the best offer…just saying that I do not believe in vast overpays for inconsistent relief pitchers. But I am not DD.
@PFan1981 – Same answer as above. But to flesh it out, my previous answer was acknowledging that guys such as Rincones and DeMartini would be in the proffer pile as potential choices. Just not going to the level of Painter / Crawford / Miller etc.
It is one thing to overpay for controlled stud position players or rotation arms, but from my perspective I would not do the same for the vast majority of bullpen arms.
We are agreeing from a personal opinion standpoint on relievers values, I just think the historical market runs counter to our shared opinion and since Pirates are selling in this instance I hope history repeats itself.
@SouthernBuc – We have just run a short course on why it is so difficult to make trades. Every year we have long lists of the top trade candidates at the deadline, and every deadline most of them are not traded.
Added to that mix – as fans we talk about this stuff in a way that doesn’t apply to the real world anyway. What DD and the Phils player development staff (or that of any other team) see and how they value guys based upon hands on current evaluations is different than our own resources allow. They might have an internal evaluation, for example, that they want to sell high on Justin Crawford right now as they are not completely sold on him, whereas most fans just look at his ranking and perhaps a highlight or two. So we are all just spit-shining on here anyway.
DeMartani is ranked 10th in the latest rankings. Rincones is ranked 15th. Rincones is a long shot to make the majors right now. He isn’t hitting at the moment and best case scenario, he could be ready by mid summer next year. DeMartani is 2-3 years (pending his progress in the minors) away from the MLB.
Regardless of player, trades are usually lopsided and prospects that have some value are dealt. Phillies are not in a position to offer less for Bednar or Santana when there are 20 teams trying to improve their bullpen. This is the time of year when returns are “overpay”. DeMartani and Rincones are two guys the Pirates would be looking to get in return. It’s how this system is designed. Look back at the famous Pirates and Rays trade years ago with Chris Archer. It’s only one example of a team making a move to attempt to be competitive. There have been more recent lopsided trades outside of Juan Soto. That Chris Sale trade last year still has to sting on top of Mookie Betts trade in 2020 for the Red Sox. Not saying Santana or Bednar will win a World Series with the Phillies, but it will improve their odds. The Pirates will get a prospect with uncertainty they can hack it at the MLB level.
I am not discrediting your input on this, but being a “voice of reason” here. Pirates wouldn’t get both guys, but those two would be on their radar to get at least 1 of Rincones or Demartani
Those outside the top 8 include a lot of guys who aren’t hitting. Some never have.
Good luck getting anything decent with that mess
@VealParm – Well given that I see Bednar and Santana as having strong mess potential, we have a deal. ; )
The Phillies suspects are a mess. In reality.
In reality, bednar was reliever of the month, and Santana has been great for a year.
Beats hitting 206 in A ball like Nori, doesn’t it?
@carverandrews I think Demartani has more upside than Rincones if you personally ask me. Rincones looks to be a 4th or 5th OF in the future. He really doesn’t hit the ball consistently and that is a red flag for a team like the Pirates who should be looking to boost the offense before Skenes is traded away in a few years. But Ben Cherington has done some questionable trades and wouldn’t be surprised if they would get Rincones over Demartani. If the Pirates get Demartani, it would mean they are restocking the system and won’t be competitive until final year of Skenes in Pittsburgh. If I was looking to boost the system and major league roster immediately, I’d look past a trade with Phillies. My job is on the line and I’d look to get a better package deal with Santana/Keller or Bednar/Cruz deal. They have a better chance of landing a MLB ready player. Baltimore would be my first call and check in on Colby Mayo.
Your approach to an argument is akin to that of the red-hatted boobie echo chamber. It is worthless to engage any further with you, but I certainly hope for the sake of Pirates fans everywhere that they receive a greater return than I would allow for given the incredibly spotty history of both Bednar and Santana and bullpen pieces in general.
@PFan – Yeah, I would lean DeMartini. Rincones is trending down but they still like the upside…the path is not linear. He looks more like a platoon OF bat if he gets there however..
If Cherington is packaging then you can do better than the Phils for the most part. We need bullpen help but should not be desperate enough to value Bednar and Santana as anything approaching elite arms.
if the pirates want crawford then it’s no deal
Bednar may have been adversely affected last year by smugness and the addition of a HOF closer.
Santana has been solid for over a year.
They are both ML players who have proven themselves in the ML’s over a period of time.
Prospects are suspects until they prove themselves in the ML’s.
The Pirates do not want Crawford.
They might as well trade for Marsh.
Kemp isn’t going in any trade. He is the best rh hitting prospect, that is ready now in the Phillies system.
@baseball – I tend to think that you are correct in that he is useful now, and I like the kid. But let’s not overvalue him either; he is hardly a surefire stud.
He is holding his own right now, and his growth has been notable as an undrafted FA. That bodes well for his ability to continue to adjust and he would make a nice story if he can carve out a role for the next few years.
Then your not getting any reliever of any consequence
Quite frankly,the Phillies need those two relievers much more than the Pirates need any of the Phillies minor league players.
The window is closing fast for Philadelphia.
The Pirates need major league ready power hitters and the Phillies do not have them.
The Red Sox are a much better potential trade partner for the Pirates.
@mendoza or Baltimore bats. Mayo is very interesting option
I think that you may be the guy who loves Mayo but last time that I checked about a month ago his batting average was 138.
They could have had mayo straight up for bednar at last years trade deadline..but someone in the organization nixed the deal.
Now after scorecard setting home series against the Mets and Cardinals….the pirates reverted back to what they are. A disgraceful organization run by idiot management. From top to bottom. The asinine cherrington and his buffoon manager. To the minor league system to the king moron upstairs…Nutting.
Why moron 2 keeps playing scrubs like trillo and pham and kiner-fleecebug is beyond me. Yea yea they want teams to see them fir the deadline ..but you aren’t getting anything for these scrubs.
It’s been reported that the reason why skenes has been yanked early in his last 2 starts, is because cheerington wants him to be ready to rich more than just 1 inning in the all star game….if this is true, then cherrington should immediately be canned alo g with his Igor manager.
Coby needs to up his ML game drastically for him to have any real trade value especially for one of the best closers in MLB.
The minute either of them put on a Philly uniform they will be the worst relievers in the game. WHP guaranteed
Phillies should also be looking at Caleb Ferguson, a lefty reliever on the Pirates who’s a free agent at the end of the season
Pirates need to sell Bednar now. He’s peaking, need to obtain a good return
Would Mick Abel and AAA power bat Gabriel Rincon do it?
I’d hate to sacrifice Miller or Crawford for just these two relievers. Maybe add Crawford if the Bucs added top catching prospect Omar Alfonso.
It would absolutely do it for the Pirates. That would be a very high price for the Phillies to pay.
@ctyank – way too much. Abel is a hard guy to determine value, but having seen him and not just looked at numbers, the talent is huge. Two years from now he could be a washout, or he could front a rotation. The progress that he made this year is encouraging. So while I would trade him, it would not be in a mixed bag relief pitching trade but only for controlled young bats. His downside is probably as a back of the pen stud himself where he would be filthy.
To get both relievers? It’s not enough. The Bucs need hitters. They don’t need Abel and Rincon is a #11 prospect with a .215/.358/.348 batting line. His previous years aren’t much better. These are the 2 top relievers on the list. If you want both it’s gonna hurt.
What? Because they’re the top 2 relievers on the list doesn’t mean they’re meant to bring back an elite return. You’re talking about these 2 guys like they’re young, controllable elite bullpen arms with a track record? Bednar has 1 truly elite season as a closer (2023) but he was in talks of being released less than a year ago. Santana has had exactly 3 months of elite production, he’s a journeyman. These guys aren’t Emmanuel Clase & Andres Munoz.
Bednar & Santana’s emergence proves the rule, you don’t trade high prospects for relievers that truly aren’t elite or have elite track records. Phillies development Jeff Hoffman from a guy nearly out of baseball into a closer getting $11M/yr in Toronto.
One is on the other side of 30 and one will be next year. 6 years of a cost controlled outfield bat is a sufficient return. Should the Pirates hold out for the best return? Yes, of course. But the modern game and analytics show how volatile relievers are. And the chances are slim you’ll get any team to give up prospects for relievers if they aren’t truly special bullpen arms. A Gabriel Rincones Jr type that profiles as a solid LH power bat that can play RF is a pretty solid return.
You’re not getting 2 highly coveted relievers for 1 prospect outside your top 10. It’s not a salary dump. They need mlb ready hitters and Rincon isn’t one. The Pirates have guys in the minors that hit .218 with 8 homers and they’re not ready either. Phillies just don’t line up.
@Sportsguy – As a Phils fan I agree – Rincones is hardly enough for both Santana and Bednar…not even close to enough. Even though the Pirates fans on here are way overvaluing Bednar and Santana.
The problem is that, when I think about adding Bednar and / or Santana, I don’t have a warm and fuzzy feeling that we just fixed a bullpen. Instead, it is “well, if things go really well they will make us deeper and better”. But given the inconstant nature of pen arms and their own track records, we are just about as likely to be screaming about their blowups as we are to be cheering for their lockdown innings.
If you grossly undervalue both relievers then any trade offers are meaningless.
Any reliever is subject to serious arm problems.
Any reliever can go up and down.
The biggest weakness on the Phillies is their bullpen.
It is an Achilles heal
The clock is ticking on his $250 M team and Dombrowski knows it.
“in talks of being released”???
😂 😆
By couch potatoes on fan sites?
@Mendoza – Well, any “trade offers” or player evaluations on here are by definition meaningless…yours definitely included.
I value relievers for what they are, and plenty of relief pitcher deals get done for values that are in line with what I see as relatively fair over time. When GM’s are willing to pay with late and close Top 50 prospects for relief pitchers that is up to them but I would never go there.
And every fan of every team overvalues their own and undervalues the other side – human nature.
Your last point is true.
But some are much closer to the real player value than others.
@Mendoza – Coupla’ points:
“The clock is ticking on the Phils” is such an over-utilized theme…the “window”. Reality – a large market team that spends can keep the window open almost indefinitely if they are smart about the need to filter in young talent along the way. One of the reasons to retain the best young talent rather than trade them for the eternal iffiness of bullpen pieces. Bad luck and bad choices can close that window for a time, but fans use the concept of the window without any real thought or understanding.
Importance of closers – certifiable lockdown closers? Sure, but there are very few of them. There have been studies done on bullpen arm performance over the course of a number of seasons and there are very few that perform at a high level from year to year over a five year period (in fact very few that are good for 3 out of 5 seasons). On average, it was in the low twenties as a number – less than one consistent, year over year bullpen arm per team.
In essence, there is a reason that they are relief pitchers – they are not good enough to start. And it is a tough job. So I am a realist about what they are, and don’t fall in love with name brands.
Again, however, I am not scouting these guys from day to day and rely upon what DD & Preston feel that they need to do. Will they overpay to get a bullpen arm? Of course – it is the trade deadline. My opinion is meaningless, but probably comes with more background in the game than most on here. That and $6 will get me an Americano tomorrow morning.
You seem like a fine poster,with knowledgeable opinions.
But teams do run out time.
Yes,the Phillies are a large market with plenty of money..
But many owners get to the point where they stop printing it and lose interest.
The Phillies development system is not world’s better than Klentak’s who was famous for making bad choices.All the money in the world helps but does not guarantee fine system development.
Your 3-5 years for good relievers is accurate,although quite often now it is the injury bug that gets them.
I realize that to many knowledgeable posters I overemphasize the role of the closer.
But the Phillies,unlike the Pirates,have an owner who is deeply involved with the team and its management.He is not getting any younger either.That window is closing with him too.
Although I have (mostly) enjoyed this conversation I think and hope that it is a moot point as I do not see the near ready ML young hitters that the Pirates would hopefully need in return.
@Mendoza
Again – with respect to the window. Of course it can shut down for a period of time; it can happen almost anywhere (except Dodgerland ; ). You talk about ownership, but Middleton just might be one of the finest owners in all of sports. He is deeply committed, but not a meddler for the most part. He understands that he is a caretaker and not the typical greedy owner that thinks that they have no obligation to a city other than lip service, and he desperately wants to win.
The front office is top shelf (all of these things are so “un-Philly” for the most part that it is hard to adjust the mindset for a longtime fan) So that portion of the window is not closing soon unless by unforeseen circumstance. They are not running the organization in a way that they will see the window close (say – trading a Painter for a Bednar / Santana); they are doing the exact opposite. So bad luck and injuries can derail things but this notion of the window needing to close soon is based on myth rather than reality.
If you have ever looked at large market teams and their big contracts, clearly some work and others don’t. But even in cycles when too many contracts go stale, if ownership is determined they simply unload what they can and replace that deal with another deal by spending again if necessary. I don’t foresee Middleton all of a sudden saying “Schwarbs and JTR are gone – let’s not respend that money.” for example. That is why it is so unfair for the small market teams, that are basically required to try to deal with short windows if everything goes right followed by restructurings (unless one is the uncanny Rays to a point).
I am fairly conversant with the Phils system, and Klentak was a disaster but DD & Co. have revamped things (especially the development side) and it is paying off. Their top ten go toe to toe very well; the next tier needs more quantity but is solid as well and they have some intriguing talent down below which is starting to show up. Player development is superior; far superior to the Klentak era – clearly you are not on top of that part of things.
They spent in the interim to give us a competitive team while they rebuilt the system and now they need to filter in some of the youngsters to give them the runway to keep the payroll at an acceptable but high level. They need a % of the top end guys that are starting to near the majors to come to fruition – Painter / Miller / Crawford / Abel and such . If two out of the top 6 make a real impact then that is a win. They need some of the high end but lower level guys to stay on course and they need some of the next tier guys to make contributions or bring back trade returns. All feasible and likely as things exist. The system has come way up in the ratings in the past couple of years.
Your knowledge of the Pirates clearly shows and you understand the game as compared to many posters on here and it is nice to have a respectful conversation.
Dombrowski is a HOF in my opinion and Mattingly seems to warrant his historic last name.
I grew up just north of Pittsburgh and still root and follow the Pirates closely but have lived just west of Philadelphia for many many years and also follow them closely and root for them too.
Klentak and Mc Fail lasted longer than they should have.
They are not going to trade Painter nor should they but his being over hyped as a 19 year old may have brought on Tommy John sooner rather than later in that first ST appearance two years ago.
I agree that player development is superior now but not sure about the far superior unless you are damning with faint praise comparing them.
There are so many potential disasters with pitchers especially young ones that the phrase you can’t have too much pitching is very true now.
I do not get too excited about young players until they prove themselves in the ML’s.Prospects regularly become suspects although your 2 of 6 ratio could be low at least as far as becoming decent ML players.
Your aversion to fine relievers like Bednar and Santana if shared by DD could haunt the Phillies though.There are others on the trade block that could benefit the Phillies too and hopefully they can get them without giving up good young players.
Klentak and MacPhail were a huge mistake, and should have been dumped earlier than they were. Mac was disengaged, and Klentak was smart but tunnel-visioned and hardly ready for his prime time slot.
Prospects are just that – the last leap is the biggest one and many fail to clear the hurdle. But I do like where they are, and see the year to year improvement. There are some exciting talents that are about ready to make the leap.
You mis-characterize my approach to pen arms. It is not an aversion;; it is simply acknowledging that they are far more difficult to predict and lack consistency. Trading premium prospects on the verge of the majors should bring back controlled everyday players with upside or rotation arms. Bednar and Santana might be great – they could also crater again. There are a bunch of bullpen arms out there that will be available; hopefully DD finds a deal that is only a routine overpay, rather than an absurd one.
If I had my druthers, I would build out more depth in the pen…spend more on middle relief types with upside; injury rehab plays and change of scenery types. Overpay them somewhat to get them here and let Cotham work them.hard, along with LHV. One or two every year might develop into something more, while you also feed them from below with a Kerkering type. There is so much attrition, injury and inconsistency in the breed that quantity and focused training and $$ are needed to patch the holes.
Nah, the Pirates already have players equivalent or better than both Abel and Rincon. They don’t need AAAA depth.
Santana- PEDs?
If the pirates ask for Crawford then it’s no deal
I think the Pirates would ask for Crawford. You have to start high.
they can get it done without giving up Crawford
Then the Phillies don’t get Bednar.
I love the fanbase back and forth trade commentary: “All of your prospects are slop; all of our mediocrities are diamond-encrusted bars of gold. And vice versa. Trades are hard to put together.
Given the structure of the Pirate team (focus on pitching and defense, not offense), I do not think it is in the Pirates’ interests to trade either.. while the Pirates could definitely use more offense, they are being built to win low scoring games where their pitching dominates. Trading away the back end of your pitching, especially if the return is only prospects, will probably increase the number of runs surrendered by Pirate pitching. Unless someone grossly overpays or the Pirates find a unicorn, the additional offense will probably not account for the additional runs given up.
Most fans, especially those posting, are trade happy and seem to think all teams have to win in the same way.
Skeptical-I agree with your post.
But you and I know that the Pirates need hitting.
I would rather see Keller go to the Red Sox for a young power hitter or two.
If outfielders,Suwinski can be included in the deal.
I’m not trade happy, per se
I just think the rebuild was an abject failure, especially with nothing other than pitching and Griffin in the minors
There is literally no one to build around here—you can’t build around starting pitching when this modern era means 5 inning starts.
So use what pieces you DO have the start again
But herein lies the problem as you have a GM who’s shown no ability to identity top talent with his scouts, and a player development department that has failed miserably
This is a franchise that must follow the TB model. It’s the only way. And they’re nowhere near it as they try to whack a mole with adding a Pham or Frazier or Canario.
They need new management, new scouts, new development people
They need to burn it all down
I actually have a somewhat rosier view now that they have finally fired Shelton which I have been consistent in saying for them to do for two years.
I think that they have solid players in Horwitz and Gonzalez and Davis is coming on.
Hayes may be traded but he is acceptable if he stays focused and injury free.
Cruz is Cruz and may have peaked but his talent is alluring.
Hopefully Reynolds regains his hitting ability and all star status.
The young pitching is the best that I have ever seen.
They need a shortstop and a right fielder with Reynolds going back to left.
Their fundamentals have clearly improved,and Kelly does not put up with crap.
I agree with AI GM in that they could have a winning team next year with a couple of hitters added and further improvement from their young players.
The only question is whether Cherington and/or Nutting will screw it up.
Where you see the glass as half full, I see as half empty.
While I can generally agree about the idea of talented young pitching staff and that removing Uncle Sheltie was a step in the right direction, again, not only do they have a roster comprised of average or below talent, they also have no cavalry coming over the hill anytime soon
To me at least, you see promise and progress from guys like Horwitz and Davis where I see running in place. Just how long do they wait on these types of players?
Reynolds was never a superstar and my thoughts on Hayes are well known. How do you build around a guy like Cruz? Who does that leave?
All I want as a fan is a team that battles every time out, a team well drilled in fundamentals, with a manager who continuously pressures the opponent. I’m never gonna see another championship team here and that’s fine, I’ll take .500. Whether that means an owner who feels some semblance of civic responsibility or bringing a young, fiery kid who wants to make a name for himself as GM, who knows?
The 6 game win streak was nice and allowed some fans to dream. But the three straight shut outs in Seattle are much more representative of who these guys are.
Unfortunately,your last statement is still too true.
This is the first time that the Mariners have ever shut one team out three straight games.
The Pirates are a much better team at home than on the road.
But the Mariners have been surging and the difference is basically several home runs and the Pirates have no one to hit them.
And you are right,there are no hitters on the farm.
Where is Pedro Alvarez when you need him?
It will be a very interesting 2 1/2 months.
The Pirates will want near MLB-ready offense. Considering that the majority of the Phillies lineup has been either by trade or free agency, that speaks volumes about the quality of the position-player talent in the minors. The Phils have nothing to offer the Pirates that they would be interested in.
I would not be surprised if the Phils overpay. These two players could be the difference between being in the World Series or watching it on TV.
The Pirates are not the only team with relief pitchers. Lots of time before the deadline and lots of teams to talk to. Most of the time it comes down to the wire.
If they can get both for Crawford you have to do it for that reason and they are controlled for next year as well.
Great stuff, but they also need offense.
@Von – in the grand scheme, of course they need offense. But look around the league and so does almost everyone else. On balance, the Phils are still a top ten offense in baseball and are usually rated 6th or 7th.
Of the mediocrities that are available at the deadline, there are very few clean fits as upgrades. I might argue that we have just as much of a chance of seeing Kepler go on a run and / or Crawford make some impact as most of the dreck that will be out there and overpriced due to supply and demand.
Sad, but true.
What do the Phillies have to offer? I haven’t looked?
Not much. The only guy in their system the Bucs would be interested in would be Crawford. I don’t see a fit.
Phillies have 4 prospects in the top 100. I’m sure the Pirates would love to have any of those 4.
In all honesty I just checked those four and the stats do not support their high ratings.
Painter is only slowly coming back and has talent but a July promotion will not happen.
Miller strikes out a lot for a shortstop with not a lot of power.
Tait is very young.
Crawford has no power.
They may all be good prospects but they have to take over AAA in order to be a sound prospect.
Plus the a Pirates want ML ready position players.
I’ll take their national rankings over some dude on a forum, and I’m sure the Pirates would too. No offense.
National ratings are not always accurate.
They are often projections.
I base mine on past production.
No offense.
Past production for prospects? There’s virtually nothing there. That’s the point.
Then what is the point of having these prospect projections if it is not based on some sort of past performance?
Many of these players are very young and you are right,there is no past performance for them.
The Pirates have one in Termarr Johnson who was drafted at 18 years of age in 2022 and immediately shot up to near the top of the top 100 list for the ML’s.
He has done OK but now is in AA and is out of the top 100 list.
If they want a meaningful list they should break it down to the top 25 for different levels of experience or minors levels.
And the AAA top 25 would have meaningful ratings based on how they have done in AAA and throughout the other levels.
Otherwise it is a guessing game and how are the raters a whole lot better than dudes on a forum?
There are plenty of ways for the Phillies to trim the fat and save money so they don’t go over that final tier. There will be teams interested in Max Kepler and if they just don’t ask for anybody in return that saves them 5 million right there. Do they bring up top prospect Justin Crawford that saves them $2 million trading Brandon marsh. Many other opportunities so the Phillies can’t walk away from upgrading their pitching and use money as an excuse.
If they can get both for Crawford I think you have to strongly consider it from the Phils perspective. Considering that both I believe are controlled through through next year. With their starting pitcher you can win a World Series, the only thing that will prevent that is the bullpen so if it takes a prospect to accomplish that do what you have to and it also keeps Abel to attempt to address their OF problem. Prospects are that lottery tickets for the most part, and it seems as if there isn’t 1 completely dominant team, dodgers are never healthy.
Go get Aroldis Chapman & David Bednar, they won’t cost a top 5 prospect. Maybe the Phils could package some of these older prospects together – Otto Kemp, McGarry, McCollum, Keaton Anthony, Robert Moore, Rincones Jr. Trim the fat and do some two for ones. Trade for a rental like Rob Refsnyder, Joe Addel or Lane Thomas to platoon with Kepler and get two legitimate RP’s, preferably a L/R duo.
I think the best way to look at it is to use the Soto trade for a template. 1 player for two players, one of those 2 players is the number 7 prospect in your system