Seth Lugo has gone from a potential trade candidate to rotation cornerstone, as the right-hander and the Royals are in the final stages of negotiating a new contract extension. The new deal is a two-year, $46MM pact that carries a club/vesting option for the 2028 campaign. The money breaks down as a $3MM signing bonus for Lugo, $20MM salaries in both 2026 and 2027, and then a $17MM club option for 2028 with a $3MM buyout. Should Lugo hit the vesting thresholds, that 2028 option will lock in another $20MM salary. Lugo is represented by the Ballengee Group.
Lugo had the ability to opt out of the final season of his previous three-year, $45MM contract, but instead of facing an opt-out decision this winter, the right-hander will be staying put in Kansas City. There wasn’t much doubt that Lugo (who turns 36 in November) was going to decline his player option and leave his final $15MM on the table in search of a larger and lengthier guarantee in free agency.
With the Royals also struggling to stay in the playoff race, there was some speculation that K.C. could look to move the veteran prior to Thursday’s deadline. However, the most recent reporting suggested that not only did the Royals want to keep Lugo beyond July 31, but the club wanted to work out a new contract to convince Lugo to forego his opt-out clause.
Assuming the extension talks indeed cross the finish line, Lugo will join Cole Ragans and Michael Wacha as Royals starters under contract through at least the 2027 season, depending on the specifics of Lugo’s new deal. Wacha’s three-year, $51MM deal signed last November also came under the specter of a player option, as Wacha had the ability to opt out of his $16MM salary for the 2025 season and test the market. Ragans inked a three-year, $13.25MM extension last February that was more about cost certainty than team control, as the deal only covers the southpaw through his second arbitration-eligible year — Kansas City still has arb control on Ragan through the 2028 campaign.
Between this trio, breakout rookie Noah Cameron, and the Royals’ remaining year of arbitration control on Kris Bubic, Kansas City’s 2026 rotation may already be set. This doesn’t include such injured pitchers as Kyle Wright and Alec Marsh, so K.C. has a good deal of pitching depth in place as the club tries to figure out the greater issue of its lack of offense.
Lugo’s career-opening seven-year stint with the Mets saw the righty begin as a starter, before moving into more of a part-time starter/swingman role and then finally as a full-time reliever in 2021-22. Heading into free agency following the 2022 campaign, Lugo was looking to make a return to the rotation, and landed a two-year, $15MM free agent deal with the Padres that included a player option on the 2024 season. After a solid year in San Diego, Lugo declined that option and returned to free agency to find his three-year commitment with Kansas City.
Over two-plus seasons since his return to starting pitching, Lugo’s ERA has dropped from 3.57 in 2023 to 3.00 in 2024 and to 2.95 this year. His SIERAs have remained almost identical in that span, averaging out to a 3.98 number that is probably a fairer reflection of his production than his 3.17 ERA over 466 innings since Opening Day 2023. Despite allowing a lot of hard contact and posting subpar strikeout rates, Lugo has consistently outperformed his peripherals by limiting walks (6.2BB% in the last three seasons) and an elite curveball spin rate, not to mention a fastball that also has plenty of spin despite its modest 91.6mph velocity.
Lugo has gotten a fair amount of batted-ball luck to support his numbers, yet as he is now in his third productive year as a starter, the veteran is clearly doing more than just relying on good fortune to retire batters. He has also answered all questions about whether he was durable enough to hold up in a rotation by pitching 206 2/3 innings in 2024, which was a key reason why Lugo finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting.
It was enough for the Royals to commit an additional $31MM to Lugo on top of the $15MM they had already agreed to pay him through 2026. It’s a significant chunk of change for pitcher’s age 36-37 seasons, yet obviously the Royals have loved what they’ve gotten from Lugo to date and believe he can keep it up deeper into his 30’s. The $23MM in average annual value is a little eye-opening, though as MLBTR’s Contract Tracker tells us, 11 pitchers of age 30 or higher have topped that AAV in free agency over the last three offseasons.
It is also noteworthy than the idea of Kansas City signing a player to such a contract is no longer as surprising as it would’ve been even a few years ago. Now that the Royals have moved out of a rebuild period, owner John Sherman has greenlit higher spending, most notably Bobby Witt Jr.’s long-term mega-contract. The Royals’ playoff appearance in 2024 was evidence that the team’s roster-building is paying dividends, and while their 2025 record has disappointed, there is enough of a pitching core in place to suggest that even league-average hitting could get K.C. back to the postseason. The club’s recent additions of Adam Frazier and Randal Grichuk suggest that the Royals haven’t given up on making a late run this year, even if bigger lineup upgrades will probably be saved for the winter.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan was the first to report that the two sides were closing in on an extension. MLB.com’s Anne Rogers (multiple links) had the details about the two-year length of the deal and the financial breakdown, while the New York Post’s Jon Heyman was the first to report that Lugo would be receiving a guarantee in the ballpark of $46MM.
Photo courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff, Imagn Images
I wouldn’t have complained if he came back to Queens. Good for him.
Good for the the Royals and Lugo. Really enjoyed him in SD and it’s neat to see the 2nd act of his career play out as it has.
Smart move by the royals. Playoffs chances are great and they don’t want to sell. So you extend the good ones.
Some other teams should learn from this.
Two outcomes to that though: the White Sox and the Braves… White Sox signed a bunch of extensions and crashed, Braves won the WS, had two seasons of 100+ wins, and then this year (which includes injuries to all 5 of their starting pitchers from opening day rotation). So jury is still out on them.
What on earth are you talking about? They are 4 games back in the wildcard race. The Cardinals were 2.5 games back earlier today and you were telling me they were dumb for not selling.
What kind of fake nonsense garbage is this?
King- I meant not great (are was suppose to say aren’t)…so sell or extend.
Not stand pat which is what you want the cards to do.
I dont want the Cardinals to stand pat i said EARLIER TODAY I think they will IF they play well the next few games and specifically today which they obviously did not.
After today I am ready to sell. I think at this point its time to sell but if they played better over rhe last 10 days and also over the last month or so they would be in playoff contention. All the talk about them selling prior to that was nonsense brought on by rival fans like yourself and the Cubs fans that run this site.
First time I brought it up was today. That was after many rumors starting coming out about them selling. Writing was on the wall, you just were holding out hope.
Mean all the rumors are of them selling and not a single rumor of them buying is out there…writing on the wall.
If Kansas City even had an average outfield they’d be a solid playoff team. How have they not added a .275 25-30hr outfielder by now.
The writing has NOT been on the wall. The Cardinals were 2 freaking wins away from being ahead of the Padres in the standings. They have been in the wildcard hunt most of the year. The writing on the wall was from this nonsense site run by Cubs fans trying to will the Cardinals to trade away everyone in the offseason and competing fans like you eating it up.
The rumors come from this site RUN BY CUBS FANS!!!
You want to talk about all the nonsense Padres rumors over the last few years? We could. Its a long list.
King- there have been 10m rumors about the padres on here. Some of them have come true. The biggest misses on this site about the padres has been payroll.
Was told here they wouldn’t go over the tax and now are over the second tier.
As a KCian, 1) In the acquisitions of Frazier & Grichuk they’ gave up guys who weren’t coming to the big leagues permanently for some time; 2) They either don’t have minors players they are willing to sell, or that other teams are interested in; 3) Lugo was the one guy they had to sell & he wasn’t controllable after this year so the SELLERS wouldn’t want him for any reason.
(I’ve over analyzed who they could have gone after and at this point someone like Ryan O’Hearn may be attainable, but not much better than that. IF they do better than that I’ll happily take the L for their W.)
King- I never said there were dumb for not selling. I said they will sell and they will.
Who will sell the Royals? It doesnt appear that way dude.
King- the royals never wanted to sell but are now not in a great spot either standings wise.
So instead of trading Lugo they decided to extend him which is a good choice vs not selling and standing pat.
Perhaps they make another minor move or two and try to make a run still but they are keeping their best trade chip.
Royals have a lot of playoff hopeful teams ahead of them, are they better than the Yankees, Red Sox, rays, mariners, rangers?
From a Royals fan here. The answer is no.
id argue with their rotation, even with the terrible OF, they can play a series with any of the teams you mentioned. Pitching wins games. And the Royals rotation, when healthy, is better than all of these, with the exception of MAYBE Seattle.
Playoff chances are great? You should bet them to make the playoffs bet 100 and pay for playoff tickets for 2 years.
That’s- yeah it was typo…meant aren’t
Remember Simm, the player has to go along – it isn’t just a team decision and with a lot of guys represented by Boras, the teams never get the chance.
Long- good point
Great for both sides. Love Lugo from his time with the Mets and it’s great to see him come into his own as a starter.
Lugo is off the market officially. Good on the Royals for keeping such a great starter. Come on Hoyer get some bullpen help for the Cubbies!
Surprise! It’s an NBA style sign and trade!
Are teams even allowed to do sign and trades? There’s probably no point though because they could just do trade and extension
The only reason why sign-and-trades happen in the NBA and NHL is because of rules limiting the values and lengths of max contracts a player can sign with a new team. Often, the team losing the player will agree to sign them to the max contract and then trade them so they don’t lose them for nothing, and it’s kind of a win for everyone.
Loogs!
Wow that’s cool for him looks like KC wants to go for it. Good for their fans.
I asked KC fans id they want to try or sell and it’s been all sell so actually not good for their fans. At least the ones on the internet.
Good for KC and Lugo! He recently pitched a quality start against the Cubs, only gave up 2 runs. Take him off of Jed’s wish list!
8 years $160 million
AJ Preller
What the
hell are you talking about?
11 years $217 million
Brian Cashman
Nice.
The Pride of Centenary College of Louisiana, which is itself the pride of the underrated city of Shreveport, on the left coast of the Red River, fabled in story and song. Do you know the name of another rather famous athlete who came out of Centenary?
Robert Parish.
Shreveport, home of the Louisiana Hayride radio and television shows.
I’m a Royals fan and so many fans have been begging to trade Lugo and get some “future” in return. Such stupid fans! I have been predicting that they wouldn’t trade him and then would re-sign him in the off season. Only thing I was wrong about was how quickly they gave him a new deal.
Might be one of the best rotations in the league next year:
-Seth Lugo
-Cole Ragens
-Michael Wacha
-Kris Bubic
-Noah Cameron
-Kyle Wright
Just need some outfielders who are better than little league.
Rockies do something like this – Man they are just a horrible organization that has no clue.
Royals do something like this – Brilliant move by them. Extending a guy like this is exactly what they need.
Life just isn’t fair.
Except the Rockies have a homegrown arm like Anthony Senzatela who starts his career throwing 579 innings of nothing special innings: 15.7 k%, 4.84 era, 4.42 FIP, 1.41 WHIP and a batting line against of .278/.336/.444 and the Rockies decide, yup, let’s give him 5/50.5m.
OK, so tell me ANY team in the major leagues that has not given out a contract to a player that underperformed.
Good teams earn the benefit of the doubt bad teams don’t have. The Royals have had enough success in the recent past, including a championship. The Rockies would be 20+ games under .500 and hand out 10 extensions. Not quite apples to apples.
I think Lugo getting traded was a long short from when the rumors started.
He gave up a lot of $$ to stay in KC
Kansas City must be in the works on a bat otherwise this wouldn’t make since. After the Arizona trade with one more solid outfield addition they could get in with the head to heads they have remaining. They just took two of three from Cleveland right front them!
I am a big Royals fan and I’m going to predict that they will make a trade with the Mets to get Starling Marte. He technically is an outfielder but mainly is a DH. Ultimately the Royals just need another good bat. He would work great for them. That’s my prediction.
Going contrarian here that this is not a good use of financial resources for an older SP that may have just had his peak final year of good performance. KC badly needs offense (2 to 3 bats) to help BWJ. They only made playoffs last year by going 12-1 vs historical loss record of WSox. This year exposed bottom feeding and decent pitching/bad offense isn’t a recipe to earn postseason berth.
Umm….not to burst your bubble but ALL postseason teams last year kicked the White Sox asses last year!!! If Lugo had been a starting pitcher his entire career, I would of hated this deal, but his first several years of his career were from the bullpen, pitching 50 or 60 innings a year instead of 200. Not a typical 35 year old starting pitchers arm.
Lugo was told either sign or be traded; not losing you in offseason for nothing. He wanted to stay in KC and gave a $25-30 million home town discount. Stability for him and family is worth it. He certainly won’t be poor
Smart extension for both sides. Lugp has been great and KC has decent starting pitching to back him. Not great but definitely solid
If they can get a little more out of the 4th and 5th spots they would be very good
Once they are healthy, they will have a GREAT starting rotation. Ragans and his 3.14 2024 ERA at 1 (been injured most of this year), Lugo and his 2.95 ERA at 2, Wacha and his 3.53 ERA at 3, Bubic and his 2.55 ERA at 4, and Cameron and his 2.44 ERA at 5. How do you only call that “decent starting pitching”?????
Set for life! Way to go!
Good deal for player and team. Healthy but not insane price point, healthy deal length.
This Is The Way.
Like the deal for both sides. The Royals wouldn’t have gotten a ton for him and didn’t have to spend a ton to keep him. If KC can get it together the core of there staff is together for a bit to try and make a run.