Elias: Elbow Debridement Surgery “On The Table” For Grayson Rodriguez

Orioles GM Mike Elias is speaking to reporters (including MASN’s Roch Kubatko) in the aftermath of the trade deadline this morning and relayed that the club is still determining a treatment plan for talented right-hander Grayson Rodriguez after he was sidelined by renewed soreness in his elbow in mid-July. While Elias made clear that a reconstructive surgery on Rodriguez’s UCL has been ruled out at this point, he acknowledged the possibility that Rodriguez may need a debridement surgery to remove excess bone from his right elbow. Such a procedure would mean that Rodriguez will not pitch in 2025, but he would be positioned to return in time for the start of the 2026 season. No decisions have been made about that at this point, but Elias suggested that the surgery could happen within the next few days if that’s the direction Rodriguez and the Orioles opt to take.

Rodriguez, 25, has not pitched this season. After being diagnosed with elbow inflammation during Spring Training, he began ramping up in April but was sidelined by a lat strain. He was shut down for weeks due to the lat issue, and when he began working his way back from that the renewed elbow issues once again forced him to sit back down. Now, it appears as though his 2025 season as a whole is in danger. That won’t matter for the Orioles in the short-term, as the club’s 50-59 record leaves them buried in both the AL East and the AL’s Wild Card standings. Even so, it’s a tough setback for a talented hurler who was once the consensus top pitching prospect in the sport.

Rodriguez has made 43 starts in the majors since he debuted in 2023, but no more than 23 starts in a single season. He’s pitched to a roughly league average 4.11 ERA (97 ERA+) in that time, with a 3.80 FIP and a 25.7% strikeout rate. While those results aren’t exactly impressive on paper, Rodriguez has had stretches of dominance including a 2.26 ERA and 2.75 FIP over his final 12 starts of the 2023 campaign. There’s clearly top-of-the-rotation upside baked into Rodriguez’s profile, but in order to develop that potential he’ll need to be healthy enough to get reps in. That makes the possibility of losing the entire 2025 season a frustrating one, but it sounds as though his 2026 campaign is not in danger. Given that the Orioles still hope to compete in the short-term, an injury-marred 2026 season is the most important thing to avoid.

Looking ahead to next year, Rodriguez figures to rejoin the rotation alongside a number of other injured Orioles arms. Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells, and Cade Povich are all currently on the injured list but could theoretically contribute at some point this year and certainly figure to be healthy and ready to go for next season. Lefty Trevor Rogers and right-hander Dean Kremer, both currently healthy and in the rotation, are also under control for next year. That group of arms figures to be a big step up over the production veterans on expiring deals like Tomoyuki Sugano, Zach Eflin, and Charlie Morton have offered this season, though the Orioles will still surely need to supplement that group with external talent given the long layoffs virtually every starter in the 2026 rotation will be working their way back from.