The Cubs won a playoff series for the first time in eight years. With clean books beyond 2026, will they make a major rotation addition this winter?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Dansby Swanson, SS: $105MM through 2029
- Ian Happ, LF: $18MM through 2026
- Seiya Suzuki, DH/OF: $18MM through 2026
- Jameson Taillon, SP: $18MM through 2026
- Nico Hoerner, 2B: $12MM through 2026
- Matthew Boyd, SP: $16.5MM through 2026
- Carson Kelly, C: $6.5MM through 2026
Option Decisions
- Shota Imanaga, SP: three-year, $57.75MM club option. If declined, Imanaga has a $15.25MM player option for 2026. If Imanaga exercises that, he'd have another $15.25MM player option for 2027 if the Cubs don't exercise a $42.5MM club option for 2027-28.
- Andrew Kittredge, RP: $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
- Colin Rea, SP/RP: $6MM club option with a $750K buyout
- Justin Turner, 1B/DH: $10MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)
- Reese McGuire (5.110): $1.9MM
- Justin Steele (4.143): $6.55MM
- Eli Morgan (4.091): $1.1MM
- Javier Assad (3.027): $1.9MM
- Non-tender candidates: McGuire, Morgan
Free Agents
- Kyle Tucker, Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, Drew Pomeranz, Taylor Rogers, Michael Soroka, Aaron Civale, Willi Castro, Ryan Brasier
The Cubs broke through this year with a 92-win season, their highest total since 2018. They reached the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and won a playoff game and series for the first time since 2017. After the Cubs lost Game 5 of the division series to the Brewers with a "bullpen game" pitching approach, fans couldn't help but wonder if the team could have gone further with a healthy Cade Horton and/or Justin Steele.
Let's start this offseason outlook by assessing the complicated option of the pitcher the Cubs chose to avoid in Game 5, Shota Imanaga. Imanaga, 32, was a rousing success last year as an MLB rookie. He made the All-Star team and garnered Cy Young and Rookie of the Year votes, posting a 2.91 ERA in 173 1/3 innings.
After eight starts this year, Imanaga suffered a strained left hamstring that knocked him out for 53 days. On the season, Imanaga's control remained excellent, but his average fastball velocity slipped below 91 miles per hour and his strikeout rate dropped below league average. Among starters with at least 100 innings, Imanaga's 29.2% groundball rate was the lowest in baseball, leading to a 1.93 HR/9 rate that ranked second-worst.
Imanaga still managed a 3.73 ERA, but it's fair to say he demonstrated the skills of perhaps a 4.20 pitcher. Even if 150 innings of a 4ish ERA is what the Cubs can expect from Imanaga moving forward, that's rotation-worthy. The question is whether the Cubs would sign such a pitcher to a three-year, $57.75MM contract heading into his age-32 season, and commit to that in early November.
A good comp for that might be Dallas Keuchel's three-year, $55.5MM deal with the White Sox six years ago. Though a groundball heavy pitcher, Keuchel was also a soft-tossing lefty heading into his age-32 season. That contract did not go well.
There are soft factors to consider here, such as the Cubs' recruiting efforts toward other Japanese players and Imanaga's popularity with fans last year. MLBTR writers debated Imanaga's complicated option situation, and here's our best guess:
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PCA will always be ”the one that got away”.
For the Mets
If Hoyer does bring back Tucker, then he needs to use some prospects to kick the tires on a potential trade for a starter. One such option is Joe Ryan from the Twins. That’s my two cents on the offseason.
Unless Hoyer does some type of Fowler come back miracle in Spring Training, I’m leaning towards it not happening.
It would truly be an earth shattering move by the Cubs to bring back Tucker. It’s just not happening. But I agree. If it happens then the Cubs use that prospect depth to fill gaps on the major league roster.
I’d guess that they pick up all the options on the pitchers and extend Nico before they re-sign Tucker.
Tucker’s not coming back. Ricketts doesn’t have the nads for that kind of move. Yes, they most definitely need some more offense, but I think need #1 is a TOR pitcher. Horton looked great, but Steele won’t realistically be up and running til mid season and they have to have someone to pair with Horton. The rest of that stable is a bunch of 4th or 5th starters.
With the ABS challenges coming, it needs to be established that PCA isn’t allowed to challenge umpires
No chance and there was never a chance Tucker returns. After trading three guys for Tucker and then proclaiming “we’re all in”, the Cubs dump Bellingers contract for nothing in return and did zero at the trade deadline. Jed Hoyer is a liar and a pawn of ownership who got himself a contract extension as he disappoints Cub fans over and over again. The Cubs downward spiral has begun
🤣
I can’t wait for 2029 or 2030 when Justin Ishbia becomes the White Sox full time owner as Jerry Reinsdorf departs. It will be akin to Steve Cohen replacing the Wipons in New York.
All this should finally make Chicago a true big market baseball city, especially if the White Sox can also build a brand new state-of-the art stadium in a better location than their current and long standing site on the south side.
The White Sox should finally become a legitimate big spende they that have never been which could also spur the Ricktett’s into becoming more like the Yankees down the road. 🙂
Oops! The White Sox should finally become a legitimate big spender they have never been which could also spur the Ricktett’s into becoming more like the Yankees down the road. 🙂
Ricketts needs something to get his attention back on his baseball team instead of continuing to try to buy every property in the neighborhood. As for a new park, it’s not happening. Illinois taxpayers built Jerry one plus a bar across the street where the Sox collect 100% of the revenue. Sorry Jer, build it yourself
That’s some wishful thinking. As a Chicago sports fan I think it’s great if that ultimately pans out. But that’s asking and hoping for a lot.
I’m just glad Jerry Reinsdorf will be gone in a few years. The Ishbia brothers will be an improvement over Jerry. Not sure if they’re going to go all Steve Cohen, but they’ll be better than having a good old boy as an owner.
Nico seems like a trade candidate could get a nice return and move Shaw to 2nd
They don’t really have anyone else in their organization to play 3B, however. Unless they lure Geno Suarez to sign with them.
The MLBTR roundup does not sufficiently stress just how much the Cubs offense tanked after the ASB. Suzuki and PCA simply stopped hitting. Tucker did too, but in fact he was not all that good at any point of the season, except for two or three weeks in March-April and an isolated game or two later. He was so disappointing: We were led to believe he would be an RBI machine, and he just wasn’t.
The Cubs will be better off with him gone, but his failures and those of Suzuki and PCA point to the Cubs’ greatest need: They need a couple of guys who really WILL hit 40 or 45 home runs, rather than just be “on pace” to do so and then fall off. E. Suarez would be an impactful pick-up, and that’s where I’d start.
Suzuki had a stretch of one HR in 54 game after the ASG, then 5 in his final four regular season games, and 3 more in 8 playoff games.
A power bat is a welcome addition. But that’s unlikely as the position players across the field are basically set. I just don’t see any major additions. RF/DH will be combo of Cassie, The issue with the lineup is that it’s so streaky Happ, Swanson and Suzuki go through long streaks where they’re ice cold at the plate. There’s a chance Jed makes a move. But again, unlikely. The need is for a couple of quality bench/role players. The past season was a real sour point for some quality players in that role. We will see what Jed does.