The Cubs won a playoff series for the first time in eight years. With clean books beyond 2026, will they make a major rotation addition this winter?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Dansby Swanson, SS: $105MM through 2029
- Ian Happ, LF: $18MM through 2026
- Seiya Suzuki, DH/OF: $18MM through 2026
- Jameson Taillon, SP: $18MM through 2026
- Nico Hoerner, 2B: $12MM through 2026
- Matthew Boyd, SP: $16.5MM through 2026
- Carson Kelly, C: $6.5MM through 2026
Option Decisions
- Shota Imanaga, SP: three-year, $57.75MM club option. If declined, Imanaga has a $15.25MM player option for 2026. If Imanaga exercises that, he'd have another $15.25MM player option for 2027 if the Cubs don't exercise a $42.5MM club option for 2027-28.
- Andrew Kittredge, RP: $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
- Colin Rea, SP/RP: $6MM club option with a $750K buyout
- Justin Turner, 1B/DH: $10MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)
- Reese McGuire (5.110): $1.9MM
- Justin Steele (4.143): $6.55MM
- Eli Morgan (4.091): $1.1MM
- Javier Assad (3.027): $1.9MM
- Non-tender candidates: McGuire, Morgan
Free Agents
- Kyle Tucker, Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, Drew Pomeranz, Taylor Rogers, Michael Soroka, Aaron Civale, Willi Castro, Ryan Brasier
The Cubs broke through this year with a 92-win season, their highest total since 2018. They reached the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and won a playoff game and series for the first time since 2017. After the Cubs lost Game 5 of the division series to the Brewers with a "bullpen game" pitching approach, fans couldn't help but wonder if the team could have gone further with a healthy Cade Horton and/or Justin Steele.
Let's start this offseason outlook by assessing the complicated option of the pitcher the Cubs chose to avoid in Game 5, Shota Imanaga. Imanaga, 32, was a rousing success last year as an MLB rookie. He made the All-Star team and garnered Cy Young and Rookie of the Year votes, posting a 2.91 ERA in 173 1/3 innings.
After eight starts this year, Imanaga suffered a strained left hamstring that knocked him out for 53 days. On the season, Imanaga's control remained excellent, but his average fastball velocity slipped below 91 miles per hour and his strikeout rate dropped below league average. Among starters with at least 100 innings, Imanaga's 29.2% groundball rate was the lowest in baseball, leading to a 1.93 HR/9 rate that ranked second-worst.
Imanaga still managed a 3.73 ERA, but it's fair to say he demonstrated the skills of perhaps a 4.20 pitcher. Even if 150 innings of a 4ish ERA is what the Cubs can expect from Imanaga moving forward, that's rotation-worthy. The question is whether the Cubs would sign such a pitcher to a three-year, $57.75MM contract heading into his age-32 season, and commit to that in early November.
A good comp for that might be Dallas Keuchel's three-year, $55.5MM deal with the White Sox six years ago. Though a groundball heavy pitcher, Keuchel was also a soft-tossing lefty heading into his age-32 season. That contract did not go well.
There are soft factors to consider here, such as the Cubs' recruiting efforts toward other Japanese players and Imanaga's popularity with fans last year. MLBTR writers debated Imanaga's complicated option situation, and here's our best guess:
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PCA will always be ”the one that got away”.
For the Mets
If Hoyer does bring back Tucker, then he needs to use some prospects to kick the tires on a potential trade for a starter. One such option is Joe Ryan from the Twins. That’s my two cents on the offseason.
Unless Hoyer does some type of Fowler come back miracle in Spring Training, I’m leaning towards it not happening.
It would truly be an earth shattering move by the Cubs to bring back Tucker. It’s just not happening. But I agree. If it happens then the Cubs use that prospect depth to fill gaps on the major league roster.
I’d guess that they pick up all the options on the pitchers and extend Nico before they re-sign Tucker.
Your right on all fronts but Hoyer is only allowed to do what Ricketts allows him to do m, heard the Cubs will lay low due to the iumcomming lockout
Tucker’s not coming back. Ricketts doesn’t have the nads for that kind of move. Yes, they most definitely need some more offense, but I think need #1 is a TOR pitcher. Horton looked great, but Steele won’t realistically be up and running til mid season and they have to have someone to pair with Horton. The rest of that stable is a bunch of 4th or 5th starters.
Tucker is not coming back. Period, end of story.
With the ABS challenges coming, it needs to be established that PCA isn’t allowed to challenge umpires
No chance and there was never a chance Tucker returns. After trading three guys for Tucker and then proclaiming “we’re all in”, the Cubs dump Bellingers contract for nothing in return and did zero at the trade deadline. Jed Hoyer is a liar and a pawn of ownership who got himself a contract extension as he disappoints Cub fans over and over again. The Cubs downward spiral has begun
🤣
Hoyer is the best example of upward failure.He does everything wrong and then gets extended. What this proves is that winning is of no importance at all to the ownership. Other executives voted him the worst baseball executive and Rickets kept him. How did that Schwarber move work out for you Jed?
Shwarber was not the same player as he is now. Hes improved his unique sometimes polarizing skillset which is low contact, high Ks, walking often, and a lot of power. Or what some call a 4 outcome player.
Hoyer was not alone either as Nats and BOS would move on from him as well. PHI has done well with him, they have also vastly increased payroll and lineup protection. An argument can be made that those increases have inflated his #s. To b fair tho an argument could b made hes a catalyst of that lineup as well. Id say the truth is its somewhere between the 2 and to which extent its favoring is the real question.
Look as much as I despise Hoyer you simply cannot blame Schwarber leaving on him. Schwarber was just a DH and when the Cubs let Schwarber walk there was no DH and there was no event seemingly on the horizon where one would be approved. Then the year after he left all of the sudden it was ratified. Call it what you want bad luck, Bad timing but it really wasn’t anybodies fault. As much as I’d like to blame Hoyer not even I can do that.
Im not blaming anyone. I was just stating at the time Schwarber was not producing as much as he has in recent years. Cubs also were not the only team to have him and then part ways.
Ironically the Cubs find themselves in almost the same situation right now, With one exception. There IS a DH now. But the problem is the same. Cubs have Ballesteros who really can’t catch and you can only play him at 1B in the field really. But the Cubs have Busch there. Back then the only place you could play Schwarber in the field was 1B. But the Cubs had Rizzo there. Basically the same exact problem and for me the answer should be the same. Move Ballesteros, Run with Busch and move on. At least you can still get something for Ballesteros. They got nothing for Schwarber.
I can’t wait for 2029 or 2030 when Justin Ishbia becomes the White Sox full time owner as Jerry Reinsdorf departs. It will be akin to Steve Cohen replacing the Wipons in New York.
All this should finally make Chicago a true big market baseball city, especially if the White Sox can also build a brand new state-of-the art stadium in a better location than their current and long standing site on the south side.
The White Sox should finally become a legitimate big spende they that have never been which could also spur the Ricktett’s into becoming more like the Yankees down the road. 🙂
Oops! The White Sox should finally become a legitimate big spender they have never been which could also spur the Ricktett’s into becoming more like the Yankees down the road. 🙂
Ricketts needs something to get his attention back on his baseball team instead of continuing to try to buy every property in the neighborhood. As for a new park, it’s not happening. Illinois taxpayers built Jerry one plus a bar across the street where the Sox collect 100% of the revenue. Sorry Jer, build it yourself
The new White Sox stadium would be funded primarily by the Ishbia’s, not Illinois taxpayers. The Bears are finally realizing this with their move to Arlington Park. The Ishbia’s have much deeper pockets than the McCaskey’s and their fortune is much more diversified, not merely tied to sports franchises
Never happen.
That’s some wishful thinking. As a Chicago sports fan I think it’s great if that ultimately pans out. But that’s asking and hoping for a lot.
Chicago fan? That concept is so foreign to me. I suspect that equates to someone that isnt that big of a baseball fan to begin with I hate the Sox but I respect anyone who follows their team. But that doesnt mean you cant criticize them and Hoyer is a wimp who sucks…up to Ricketsts. Hoyer got his extension and Ricketts feels he gave us a title so its his time to collect. What a POC.
I’m just glad Jerry Reinsdorf will be gone in a few years. The Ishbia brothers will be an improvement over Jerry. Not sure if they’re going to go all Steve Cohen, but they’ll be better than having a good old boy as an owner.
Always better to have a guy whose entire net worth isn’t tied to his sports team
Nico seems like a trade candidate could get a nice return and move Shaw to 2nd
They don’t really have anyone else in their organization to play 3B, however. Unless they lure Geno Suarez to sign with them.
The MLBTR roundup does not sufficiently stress just how much the Cubs offense tanked after the ASB. Suzuki and PCA simply stopped hitting. Tucker did too, but in fact he was not all that good at any point of the season, except for two or three weeks in March-April and an isolated game or two later. He was so disappointing: We were led to believe he would be an RBI machine, and he just wasn’t.
The Cubs will be better off with him gone, but his failures and those of Suzuki and PCA point to the Cubs’ greatest need: They need a couple of guys who really WILL hit 40 or 45 home runs, rather than just be “on pace” to do so and then fall off. E. Suarez would be an impactful pick-up, and that’s where I’d start.
Suzuki had a stretch of one HR in 54 game after the ASG, then 5 in his final four regular season games, and 3 more in 8 playoff games.
A power bat is a welcome addition. But that’s unlikely as the position players across the field are basically set. I just don’t see any major additions. RF/DH will be combo of Cassie, The issue with the lineup is that it’s so streaky Happ, Swanson and Suzuki go through long streaks where they’re ice cold at the plate. There’s a chance Jed makes a move. But again, unlikely. The need is for a couple of quality bench/role players. The past season was a real sour point for some quality players in that role. We will see what Jed does.
The best part of Tucker leaving is that it will remove one more thing that Alan is blatantly wrong about.
He will sorely be missed in the lineup and it’s gonna very hard to replace him.
It’s not difficult to pull up baseball reference and compare to other….I really don’t see Guardians fans clamoring to rid of Jose Ramirez or the Royals to jettison Bobby Witt. Same for Corbin Carroll, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Vladdy….
Hard to just continually listen to opinions that are actually factually incorrect….like the Cubs missing the playoffs, being 15 back in August….
Where you gonna play him? DH ? I’d be ok with that but I thought they were to LH anyway last year
Ownership isn’t interested in winning or the game, those treasonous POS only care about fans money. They’ll milk a Wild Card like it accomplished something and fans will eat it up.
I enjoyed watching the death spiral that started in July and now get to read all Winter about the teams chances.
Successfully pursue Alex Bregman and make Matt Shaw available as part of a deal for Skubal.
Genuinely intrigued to know which other players you think the Cubs would have to package with Shaw to entice the Tigers to send Skubal to the north side.
Shaw, Caissie and Mo Baller would get him pretty easy. all 3 are MLB exposed.
I would only do it is Tom went all in and resigned Tucker and got Bregman. That would put the Cubs as a series contender and they are dropping a ton of contract in 27 to extend Skubal after
The top 5 prospects should do it along with Shaw, would you do it ? I would as long as he signed an extension
I’m inclined to think the Tigers do not plan to trade Skubal under any circumstances, so conversations about who it would take to get him are moot.
Folks who want the Cubs to re-sign Tucker seem to acknowledge that he didn’t have a very good season, but they blame it on injuries, and assume that he will have better seasons going forward. Sure, maybe–but that’s no sure thing. He has a long, loopy swing, decreasing bat speed, and a flat-footed stance that gives him decent plate coverage, but the kind that results in lots of lazy flies to center. And he seems to be vulnerable to leg injuries, which might be why he is so tentative in right field. What we saw this season might be what he is, now. I’d prefer that some other team take the risk of giving him a long-term contract.
I agree Alan, your points on Tucker are all valid. Tucker, as many LH hitters before him, found Wrigley Field a tough place to excel.
Shows how great a guy like Billy Williams was performing.
It’s not a matter of the cubs wanting Tucker coming back but whether he wants to come back and like parades before him, he played the last half that he didn’t wish to be back.
He won’t be missed by me.
Tucker finished SIXTH on the Cubs in both homers and RBIs. I wonder what odds you could have gotten before the season that FIVE Cubs would finish ahead of him in both categories.
The guy just didn’t hit. Sure, there were reasons–“excuses” would be a better word–but the numbers are the numbers.
I don’t think any Cubs offseason acquisition ever failed by so wide a margin to meet expectations. The fans who booed him toward the end were right. What a dog he is!
Check all player stats at July 1st. We had 2 guys that where in the MVP discussion and Tucker was one who was also an AS but like Tucker even before he became a Cub but after this season have to wonder if he is just injury prone? But something happened after the AS break 4 of our best players went into prolonged slumps, why? Tucker was hurt and played hurt when he should of gone on the DL for a couple weeks, I think they need a new hitting coach and a new organizational philosophy